Global Warming and Temperature Changes for Saudi Arabia
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J. Bio. Env. Sci. 2016 Journal of Biodiversity and Environmental Sciences (JBES) ISSN: 2220-6663 (Print) 2222-3045 (Online) Vol. 8, No. 1, p. 179-191, 2016 http://www.innspub.net RESEARCH PAPER OPEN ACCESS Global warming and temperature changes for Saudi Arabia Ishtiaq Hassan1*, Abdul Razzaq Ghumman2, Hashim Nisar Hashmi2 1Department of Civil Engineering, Capital University of Science and Technology (CUST) Zone-V Islamabad, Pakistan 2Department of Civil Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Taxila, Pakistan Article published on January 26, 2016 Key words: EdGCM, Downscaling, QuickSurf Modeling, Isohyets, GHG (Greenhouse Gases). Abstract This study aims at forecasting changes in temperature of the Saudi Arabia for the next hundred years. Temperature data of 38 years for thirteen stations in Saudi Arabia have been used as basis for this study. A Global Climate Model (GCM) has been applied to simulate temperatures by the end of the year 2100 for two scenarios namely a double carbon dioxide (2CO2) and a Modern_Predicted Sea Surface Temperature (MPSST) scenario. Temperature isotherms models, for twelve grids surrounding Saudi Arabia, have been prepared for annual and seasonal averages of each of the two scenarios by using the software “AutoCAD2000i”. Seasonal and annual averages have been extracted from these cited climate statistics and changes found by calculating the difference of the 2CO2 and MPSST values. It is found that the order (hottest remain the hottest and vice versa) of severity of the station temperatures will remain the same as being experienced for the present time. The overall change in land surface temperature for Saudi Arabia is a 4.72°C increase. *Corresponding Author: Ishtiaq Hassan [email protected] 179 | Hassan et al. J. Bio. Env. Sci. 2016 Introduction An increase in temperature does not only affect the The impact study of climate change on water agriculture but also has impacts on the livestock in resources is today’s hot topic (Hua Chen et al., 2012). terms of their reproduction, vulnerability to pests, Climate change and Global warming are becoming pathogens and, ultimately, morbidity and mortality threat for many parts of the world and affect the (Winsemius et al., 2014). The Earth’s temperature water resources by increasing the rates of evaporation differs geographically, elevation-wise, and over time – and decreasing run-off - a function of precipitation seasonally and then over decades. The spatial (Roudier et al., 2014; Abdul et al., 2013; Huisjes variation and temporal changes for different 2006). The variables like temperature and parameters associated to climate are determined by precipitation are the most important measures which performing trend analysis (Sabyasachi et al., 2015). indicate the signs of climate change (Mahdi et al., But, a major challenge for researchers studying 2015, Muhammad et al., 2015). Global warming is climate change is how to model climate change basically attributed to the increases of mixing ratio of impacts since there are many uncertainties involved. Green House Gases (GHGs) like CO2, CH4 and N2O These uncertainties range from the definition of (Ishtiaq et al., 2010; Ogunlade 2008). The heating greenhouse gases (GHGs) scenario's to the calculation effects of GHGs are counteracted, to some extent, by of hydrologic projection (Seiller and Anctil 2014). the cooling effects of sulphate aerosols. These There are four levels of uncertainties related to aerosols reflect sunlight. It is observed that land climate change impact modeling. Out of these four, surface temperature (LST) increase, in response to three levels are comrade with climate calculations increasing GHGs, is stronger over the land than that (gas emission scenarios, global climate modeling and over oceans, which is termed as Sea Surface downscaling). The Fourth level is linked with Temperature (SST), because land surfaces have a less hydrologic modeling (Seiller and Anctil, 2014). There efficient evaporative cooling and smaller heat are many studies which address the four levels e.g. by absorption capacity than large water bodies (Sutton Vicuna et al., 2007; Minville et al., 2008; Kay et al., et. al, 2007). The increase in LST gives rise to 2009; Boyer et al., 2010; Görgen et al., 2010; Teng et precipitation and other components of hydrologic al., 2012; Jung et al., 2012 while others focus only on cycle especially precipitation that also increase with a specific level e.g. Ludwig et al., 2009; Gardner increase in temperature. Hence, a rule of thumb is 2009; Poulin et al., 2011; Bae et al., 2011; Teng et al., that wet-gets-wetter (Abdul et al., 2013; Ishiaq et al., 2012; Velázquez et al., 2013. 2010) because of increased moisture gradients, in both vertical and horizontal directions, and a This study aims to investigate variation in resultant dry advection regime (Chou and Neelin, temperatures in major cities of Saudi Arabia where 2004; Held and Soden, 2006; Chou et. al, 2009) the World’s largest gatherings take place during the moving away from a rainband (Xie et al., 2010). Hajj season in addition to a continuous in and out Studies of climate change probably indicate increases flux of people from over the world. Being a rapidly in variables affecting the hydrological cycle. developing country, it is interesting to simulate temperature patterns of the country since There are basically two types of climate data to temperature change also affects the precipitation develop hydrologic models: frequency (Ishtiaq et al., 2010). This is very important - One is based on local meteorological station data; for Saudi Arabia since the country has neither and; perennial rivers nor small streams. The climate of - The second one is based on gridded data obtained Saudi Arabia is marked by high temperatures during from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional the day and low temperatures at night. Most of the Circulation Models (RCMs) (Kazi et al., 2014). country follows the pattern of a desert climate, with 180 | Hassan et al. J. Bio. Env. Sci. 2016 the exception of the southwest. Saudi Arabia has no centers of development or in research perennial rivers or permanent streams. Mostly, flash institutes/universities because some require super- rains occur in Saudi Arabia causing flooding in computers and some work on clusters of workstations valleys. This rainwater is of less to no use because of as well. Results are in raster format but with different its rapid evaporation and high infiltration rates due to spatial resolutions. All GCMs produce results in the mostly sandy soil (Ishtiaq et al, 2011). Climate change raster format. The spacing between raster elements assessment and its impacts on climate and hydrology (called pixel) is termed as resolution of the GCM and needs reliable information about the average values is expressed in degrees of “the latitudes multiplied by and climate fluctuations of the past and present which the longitudes”. are simulated to establish future trends (Olsson et al., 2015). Features of EdGCM EdGCM, an integrated software suite, is designed by Materials and methods Columbia University (USA) to simplify the process of Study Area setting up, running, analyzing and reporting on global For this study, Saudi Arabia has been selected as the climate model simulations, essentially for educational Region of Interest (ROI). In this paper, a 38 years purposes. The software package includes a full copy of (1970-2007) temperature record (Table 1) recorded at 4th Dimension® database software (4D, Inc.) and the thirteen major cities has been used as a reference data NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies’ Global to parameterize and validate simulated changes in Climate Model II (i.e., GISS GCM II). The GISS GCM temperature using EdGCM. As per standard practice, II is currently used for climate research at NASA labs this temperature data has been averaged for the four and several universities. For a complete description of standard (Wilks, 1999) climatological seasons i.e. the the GISS GCM II, see Hansen et al., 1983. EdGCM is a winter (DJF), the spring (MAM), the summer (JJA), GUI-based (GUI: Graphical Users Interface) model and the autumn (SON) and an annual value as well. and requires an uninterrupted time of approximately Figure 1 shows the stations locations. 36 hours to simulate climate from the year 1958 to the end of the year 2100 depending on platform Simulation using Global Climate Model (GCM) computing power. In this study, the model simulation The simulation of climate is a very complex exercise has been started from the year 1958 because that was and requires the solution of a large number of the first year when proper measurements of GHG's sometimes complex numerical equations involving a started (Hansen et al., 1983; The Basic Guide to number of factors and parameters/uncertainties EdGCM 2003-2009). EdGCM simulations are based which may affect simulated climate quite differently. on four fundamental equations (Ishtiaq et al., 2010; This complexity has been rationalized by the Ishtiaq et al., 2011; Hansen et al., 1983). A resolution development of Global Climate Models (GCMs). of 8 degree latitude x 10 degree longitude x 10mbar Adequate spatial and temporal resolution of GCM’s is vertical layers is used in this study. The model has needed for the evaluation of impacts, vulnerability been run for two A2 SRES (Special Report on and adaptation to Climate Change (Ramos et al., Emissions Scenarios) scenarios in this study (out of 2013). The most popular GCM’s used globally several other ones) i.e. the double CO2 (2CO2) include: the CSIRO (Australia), the DKRZ (Germany), concentration scenario and the Modern_Predicted the CCCma (Canada), the GFDL (USA), the NCAR Sea Surface Temperature (MPSST), (Ishtiaq et al., (USA), the CCSR and NIES (Japan), the HadCM3 2010, Ishtiaq et al., 2011). The model has built-in files (UK), and the EdGCM - an educational GCM which are basis to perform the simulations required developed at the Columbia University (USA).