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Effects of Climate Change on Invasion Potential Distribution Of Priyanka and Joshi, J Earth Sci Clim Change 2013, 4:6 Earth Science & Climatic Change http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.1000164 Research article Article OpenOpen Access Access Effects of Climate Change on Invasion Potential Distribution of Lantana camara Neena Priyanka1,2,* and Joshi PK1 1Department of Natural Resources, TERI University, New Delhi, India 2Pitney Bowes Software, Noida, India Abstract Climate change appears to be affecting global patterns of invasive species distribution. Forecasts based on ecological niche modeling suggest that greater impacts can be expected in the future. However, such projections are contingent on assumptions regarding the future climate conditions and invasion potential of a species. This study explores the relationship between climate change and potential distribution of Lantana camara in the National Parks of Jim Corbett and Rajaji (Uttarakhand, India). Using three representative climate change models viz., CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization), CCCMA (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis) and HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research’s General Circulation Model) across the time slices 2020 to 2080 under two regional climate change scenarios A2a and B2a, Lantana camara potential distribution models were derived. The model projections were in consensus that invasion range was likely to expand and infestation would be more severe under the A2a scenario indicating that the species may prefer warmer conditions. Taken together, the modeled results suggest that in the future, the two National Parks may be impacted largely by the gregarious presence of Lantana camara. Predictive models can provide resource managers with a tool for the early detection of invasive species and help circumvent negative ecological impacts resulting in substantial economic savings. Keywords: Lantana camara; Niche modeling; Climate change; Climate scenarios are the alternative images of how the climate in Invasion; National parks the future may unfold. The Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES) describes four climate scenario “families”, each with a divergent future Introduction description. Since it is difficult to project far-off future emissions and Invasive plants have altered the biodiversity and ecological other human factors that influence climate, scientists use a range integrity of native habitats [1,2]. They have affected natural processes of scenarios making various assumptions about economic, social, [3], homogenized flora [4], caused the extinction of species [5,6], demographic, technological, and environmental conditions to project compromised agriculture production [7], and damaged ecosystem future global warming (Table 1). Scenarios range from Low emissions resources [8,9]. The problem arises because questions of when and why (B1, B2: less pronounced future warming than A1 and A2) to High emissions (A1 and A2) in three time slices: ‘2020s’ (2010–2039), ‘2050s’ some invasive species escape and cause nuisance remain unanswered (2040–2069) and ‘2080s’ (2070–2099). [10]. The problem has been further exacerbated by a considerable climate change in the natural ecosystems. Climate change may be To predict the potential distribution of invasive species under the described as a long-term shift in the regional trends of weather different climate change scenarios, various modeling algorithms have measured by changes in its rate, range and magnitude [11]. It has been been used by researchers [18-21]. Here, the choice of the modeling plaguing much of the world and is a serious concern at continental, algorithm plays a critical role in determining the accuracy of the regional, national and local scales [11]. predictions. Most algorithms require both presence and absence data sets. This is difficult to collate because while the presence data can The relationship between species invasion and climate change is be collected with confidence, the absence data has high inherent complex and linked in several ways. Climate change is likely to enhance uncertainties [22,18]. Hence, modeling methods that require presence the dimensions of invasive to occupy new areas, while simultaneously only dataset, and can predict effectively even with limited available data increasing the adaptability in natural communities by disturbing the have been used more commonly [23,21]. dynamic equilibrium maintaining them [12-14]. On the other hand, invasive species influence the magnitude, rate and impact of climate The aim of the present study is to assess through modeling the future change by altering ecosystem composition, structure and function [15- distribution of the robust and gregarious invasive species-Lantana 17]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) covers camara - relative to its current distribution potential in the Western the issue in considerable detail and reports that the recent worldwide Himalaya regions of India under different climate change scenarios. warming will result in pole ward and altitudinal shifts in plant ranges. The report also forecasts that many ecosystems will become vulnerable to biological invasions as climatic barriers are removed. The IPCC *Corresponding author: Neena Priyanka, Department of Natural Resources, concludes that an increase of greater than 1.5°C–2.5°C in the global TERI University, New Delhi, India, E-mail: [email protected] average temperature will cause dramatic changes in species distribution Received August 05, 2013; Accepted September 20, 2013; Published September and ecosystem function, resulting in overwhelmingly negative 28, 2013 consequences for ecosystem sustainability [11]. Citation: Priyanka N, Joshi PK (2013) Effects of Climate Change on Invasion Thus, in order to improve our understanding of likely impacts of Potential Distribution of Lantana camara. J Earth Sci Clim Change 4: 164. doi:10.4172/2157-7617.1000164 invasion of a given species in the wake of climate change, knowledge of the current presence or absence and likelihood of its establishment Copyright: © 2013 Priyanka N, et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits or spread under future climate change scenarios is of the utmost unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the importance. original author and source are credited. J Earth Sci Clim Change ISSN:2157-7617 JESCC, an open access journal Volume 4 • Issue 6 • 1000164 Citation: Priyanka N, Joshi PK (2013) Effects of Climate Change on Invasion Potential Distribution of Lantana camara. J Earth Sci Clim Change 4: 164. doi:10.4172/2157-7617.1000164 Page 2 of 9 Scenarios Hypothesis Very rapid economic growth Global population reaches 9 billion in 2050 then decreases thereafter Rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies A1 A1F1 (massive use of fossil fuels); A1T (a strong call on non-fossil sources) A1B (balanced call on various energy sources without heavily relying on one in particular) World population reaches 15 billion people in 2100, and rising A2 Economic growth and spread of new efficient technology changes fragmented and slower •High emissions at regional level World population reaches 9 billion people in 2050 then decreases B1 Economy is dominated by services and informational technologies Addressing economic, social, and environmental problems World population reaches more than 10.4 billion people in 2100 and increasing at a slow rate Intermediate levels of economic development B2 Development and spread of new technologies uneven and slower than for B1 or A1 Low emissions at regional level (Source: SRES, IPCC, 2007) Table 1: IPCC climate change scenarios Figure 1: Location of Study Area. The Maxent modeling technique has been employed for assessing range of 300-1,345 m absl with a minimum temperature around 13.1°C the current distribution. In addition, three other models-CSIRO and maximum temperature around 38.9°C and average rainfall of 1200 (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization), mm. The spatial coverage of this study was deliberately made larger (a CCCMA (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis) section of the Western Himalayan region was considered instead of and HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research’s the geographical areas of two parks) than the actual range occupied by General Circulation Model)-have been employed to predict the future Lantana camara to ensure encompassing the full extent of the predicted distribution range of Lantana. range (Figure 1). Both the parks are engrossed in the Shivalik ecosystem Material and Methods and the beginning of the vast Indo-Gangetic plains, thus representing vegetation of several distinct zones and forest types and diverse flora Study Area and fauna. The study area comprises a part of the Western Himalayas including This region encircling two important national parks was selected two important National Park (NP) viz. the Jim Corbett and Rajaji. The for study because of its gregarious Lantana camara presence, high Corbett NP (29°50'–30°20' N and 77°50'-78°30' E) covering an area ecological and economic value, and its charisma of conservation of 1318.54 sq. km, lies in two districts– Nainital and Pauri Garhwal significance, which houses large populations of huge mammals like the of Uttarakhand, India. The park is situated at an altitudinal range of Indian Tiger, Asian Elephant and Swamp Deer among other important 385-1100 m absl with a temperature range
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