Evaluation Forum

American Poverty: The Role of Education, Training and Employment Strategies in the New Anti-Poverty Struggle

U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration

Issue 10, Summer 1994 Evaluation Forum

American Poverty: The Role of Education, Training and Employment Strategies in the New Anti-Poverty Struggle

Issue 10, Summer 1994

U.S. Department of Labor Robert B. Reich, Secretary

Employment and Training Administration Doug Ross, Assistant Secretary

Office of Planning and Research Raymond J. Uhalde, Deputy Assistant Secretary

A review journal for employment and training professionals focusing on policy analysis and evaluation research in education, occupational training, work and welfare, and economic development.

Evaluation Forum
Issue 10
Summer 1994 i Table of Contents

Features Poverty in America: A Context 2 The Poor in America An overview of alarming information about the nature of poverty in the 1990s, based on reports produced by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the U.S. General Accounting Office, the Children’s Defense Fund, the Center for the Study of Social Policy, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, and the Institute for Research on Poverty. 8 A Perspective on Poverty: Christopher Jencks An intensive review of Christopher Jencks’s competent research on poverty and provocative conclusions about anti-poverty policy, with an emphasis on his latest book, Rethinking Social Policy. 14 Reducing Poverty: General Approaches A summary and analysis of the positions of two respected policy experts, Robert Greenstein and Theda Skocpol, on ameliorating the high level of American poverty, based on their contributions to The Urban Underclass. The Underclass Poor 17 Inner-City Ghetto Poverty: A Re-Examination A synthesis of research and expert opinion on underclass poverty drawing from William Julius Wilson’s most recent book The Ghetto Underclass, with particular attention to the impact of joblessness, income inequality, single parenthood and cultural isolation, and to Wilson’s recommendations for addressing the problems of the underclass in American society. The Welfare System Poor 22 Contemporary Work/Welfare Strategies: The First Generation A reconsideration of the chronology of work/welfare approaches since the 1960s, concentrating on the results of the 1980s research on state initiatives funded by The Ford Foundation and participating states, and conducted by the Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation. 26 Second Generation Work/Welfare Strategies A review and analysis of Judith Gueron’s and Edward Pauly’s classic, From Welfare to Work, culling insights from evaluations of more recent state work/ welfare innovations which have contributed to the development of the national JOBS program. 29 Another Look at Work/Welfare Programs Providing another perspective on the effectiveness of work/welfare programs, a review of selected contributions to Charles Manski’s and Irwin Garfinkel’s recent book, Evaluating Welfare and Training Programs, based on a national evaluation conference sponsored by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin.

ii Evaluation Forum
Issue 10
Summer 1994 The Homeless Poor 33 What Are We Learning About Homelessness? A careful look at recent research on homelessness and its implications for social policy. 35 The Homeless and JTPA A discussion of the design and results of the National Commission for Employment Policy’s study of the role JTPA is playing in improving the employment opportunities of the homeless. 38 The Department of Labor’s Study of Homelessness An overview of the major findings of the U.S. Department of Labor’s evaluation of the Job Training for the Homeless Demonstration Program.

Commentary 42 A Commentary by Secretary of Labor Robert Reich A significant perspective on workforce policy, a macro-level context for the development of anti-poverty policy.

45 An Interview with Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan Interviews Views on the causes and consequences of poverty and the history of efforts to reduce it, focusing on the Senator’s ideas in his landmark book, Family and Nation, and recent articles on anti-poverty policy by this powerful chair of the Senate Finance Committee. 51 An Interview with David Ellwood A discussion of the results of his extensive research on poverty, emphasizing ideas in his well-known book, Poor Support: Poverty and the American Family, and his current thinking about welfare reform as co-chair of the Clinton Administration’s welfare reform task force.

Evaluation Issues At the International Level 57 The Evolution of European Welfare States and Activities A selective review of Allan Cochrane’s and John Clarke’s recent acclaimed book, Comparing Welfare States, analyzing the new trends in welfare policy in Western Europe.

Evaluation Forum
Issue 10
Summer 1994 iii At the National, State and Local Level 64 Washington State’s Family Independence Program: An Economic Interpretation of Its Impact A guest analysis by Ernst Stromsdorfer of The Urban Institute’s evaluation of an innovative Washington State welfare reform project, with an introductory context on Washington State poverty by guest reviewer Kay Thode. 70 State Welfare Reform Efforts Within the JOBS Framework A review of evaluations of new welfare reform models associated with the JOBS program, and their implications for national welfare reform. 75 Reform ‘Welfare’ or Reform ‘Welfare Reform’? A guest analysis by Kay Thode of Laurence Lynn’s singularly independent and useful perspectives on current welfare reform positions, and a commentary on potential problems with new welfare reform approaches.

Resources Selected Federal Research: In Education, Training, Employment and Economic Development A new section of Evaluation Forum looking across federal agencies sponsoring research on workforce issues. 80 U.S. Department of Labor 86 National Commission for Employment Policy 89 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services 92 U.S. Department of Education 97 U.S. Department of Commerce 99 U.S. Department of Agriculture 100 U.S. Congress 104 Private Research Firms: An Exemplar 108 Index to Information on Federal Research

New Concern About Poverty: A Renaissance in Poverty Research? Books, articles and working papers on poverty issues. 109 On Poverty 110 On Welfare 111 On Homelessness 112 International Resources

iv Evaluation Forum
Issue 10
Summer 1994 Features

Editorial Introduction Addressing Some of the Questions made their situations worse because in- Danziger and Weinberg drew the fol- dividuals had less time for parenting In the spring of 1992, the Institute lowing profile of poverty over the past and related responsibilities with little or for Research on Poverty and the Office fifty years: 1) non-Hispanic whites have no increase in family income. At the of the Assistant Secretary for Planning lower poverty rates than blacks, His- same time, high benefit reduction rates and Evaluation in the U.S. Department panics and other minority groups; caused work effort to decline for those of Health and Human Services spon- adults in the prime years have lower on AFDC, since added work produced sored a national conference to evaluate poverty rates than children and the eld- little gain in net income. policy efforts addressing poverty and its erly; men have lower poverty rates than Programs emphasizing job search correlates. The papers prepared for the women; and married-couple families assistance , the authors say, produced conference were published in book have lower poverty rates than female- modest employment and income gains form by Harvard University Press in headed families. The only exception to among female AFDC recipients. Small 1993 as Poverty and Public Policy: the durability of this profile was the shift returns to society from some employ- What Do We Know? What Should We in poverty after 1973 from the elderly to ment programs exceeded their costs. Do? The editors were three well-re- children. Economic growth traditionally But these programs did not move many spected poverty researchers, Sheldon affected these trends, but increasingly families out of poverty. On the other Danziger, Gary Sandefur and Daniel such growth matters less because of in- hand, tax credits helped 10% of the Weinberg. Insights from the book were creased income inequality. poor to escape poverty. Researchers summarized in the Winter 1992-1993 American poverty policy has always also felt that public service employment issue of Focus, the Institute’s journal. been less redistributive than policies in produced incremental long-term bene- A number of important themes and other industrial nations. We have typi- fits for white and minority women, but ideas permeate this excellent book cally tolerated higher poverty rates be- this strategy was eliminated under polit- which may help frame the articles in cause of our central political belief that ical pressure. this Features Section. One theme is government should not intervene in the Medicaid greatly improved access to that the persistence and growth of pov- market. Over the period of the 1940s to health care for the poor, but a substan- erty since the 1960s does not mean 1960s, economic growth had a direct tial proportion of the poor were not cov- that anti-poverty efforts failed. Poverty effect on poverty, and strong growth ered and resources for other medical remains a major problem in America had a significant effect. But economic programs declined over time. With sub- because of the changes in the econo- growth has not been robust since 1973. stantial evidence that education is criti- my during the past three decades at a It has not produced as many low-skill cal to movement out of poverty, educa- time when public policy interest in the jobs with adequate wages to sustain tional vouchers and merit pay for poor was declining. Some programs did families. Despite this change and our teachers were tested and found not to fail, the authors acknowledge. But continuing political ideology, the au- increase educational opportunities for some were very successful. No doubt thors claim that a combination of cash the poor or energize teaching efforts. others were poorly conceived. And and non-cash benefits for the poor But Head Start was quite successful. some were well-designed but did not clearly reduced poverty, nonmonetary The development of state-based enter- affect enough people to make a differ- benefits in particular. prise zones, on the other hand, had ence. Because of the slowing of economic mixed effects. New businesses in the Another theme is the belief that we growth, however, Danziger and Wein- zones did not produce large increases must use the renewed interest in re- berg conclude that anti- poverty strate- in aggregate employment or economic solving poverty to develop a new anti- gies in the form of employment pro- activity. With such mixed reviews, it has poverty agenda. We must begin, the grams could be expected to have only been difficult to come to definitive con- editors insist, with the lessons we a limited effect. They suggest that clusions about what worked best and learned over the past three decades of changes in welfare policy over the past for whom. research, and subsequently answer two decades have focused more on in- The Future for Poverty Research questions such as these: 1) what is creasing the poor’s work effort than on and Policy the extent of contemporary poverty, improving their earnings potential. The book goes far beyond this very 2) how effective are current anti-poverty Meanwhile the decline in the purchas- brief summary of ideas to review and programs, 3) how should we reform ing power of AFDC benefits made these comment on several decades of re- and expand anti-poverty policies and benefits a less attractive option. The search and policy recommendations. programs, and 4) what are the political Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of The contributors make the assumption constraints within which anti-poverty 1981, expressing Reagan poverty poli- that this body of knowledge has given policy must be formulated in the cy, tightened AFDC eligibility. This in- us enough information to identify the 1990s? creased work incentives for those re- general directions future anti-poverty moved from the rolls but simultaneously

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 1 Features n The Poor In America

policy should take in seeking major al issue territories of past poverty re- bad idea. Maybe it might have gains regarding equity, efficiency, self- search. They involve larger-scale initia- an impact if we were to modify it sufficiency, responsibility and dignity. tives. They require an elevated level of in this direction or expand it in Some experts recommended abol- conceptual and pragmatic risk-taking. that direction, or supplement it ishing the current welfare system alto- Some of the researchers writing in with the following services or gether, starting over with a package of the book worry that the poverty re- mandates, or double or triple alternative programs. Some suggested search community might not be able to the magnitude of its intensity or home- ownership strategies, subsidized break out of its mold sufficiently to con- the size of its incentive . . . asset accounts in place of welfare ben- sider new issues and alternatives. They This perspective is reminiscent of efits, and universal youth capital ac- cite a certain pessimism on the part of Christopher Jencks’s admonition that in counts. Others thought a National Ur- researchers related to finding such other societies the view is that when a ban Corps should be established, small impacts for most of the strategies program is not working you try to make utilizing dislocated military personnel. studied. Seeing the glass ‘part full’, oth- it better. In the United States, he says, Other options were wage subsidies for ers view past research as pointing in a we doubt that government can do any- low-skilled workers and employer- positive direction to the need for multi- thing right and therefore assume that “if based marginal employment subsidies ple, concentrated, high-participation ap- a program stumbles . . . we ought to in combination with a refundable tax proaches that can yield larger results. terminate it . . . It’s like deciding that if credit. Some researchers felt we should Robert Haveman and Isabel Sawhill, babies get sick they should be thrown address the imbalance in poverty rates referring to the destructive nature of a away.” between the elderly and children by re- “magic bullet mentality” obsessed with We are not likely to throw away what designing Social Security as an in- identifying that one remarkable strategy we have learned. The challenge is to come-related program, by fully funding that will solve the problem, suggest: use these lessons in crafting new poli- Head Start and high quality day care, cy. In the articles that follow, new direc- and by enriching schools through great- Why isn’t a superior viewpoint [one in which we say] we have tions do emerge. First we provide a er parental commitment and invest- context, then we focus on the under- ment. tried intervention X and it doesn’t seem to have much of class poor, the welfare poor, and the These potential policy changes ex- an effect, but by golly it’s not a homeless poor. tend considerably beyond the tradition-

Poverty In America: A Context nn The main increase in poverty was low-skilled work and a weakening of The Poor in America among whites and Hispanics, and large- labor unions as partial causes for the We begin the Feature Section with a ly in the Northeast. Poverty rose for statistics. Other experts criticized the selective overview of information about children and the elderly, and inside Bureau’s method for defining poverty, contemporary poverty in the United metropolitan areas. The greatest de- which did not include noncash benefits States, and some of the general conclu- crease in income occurred among white such as Food Stamps, Medicaid and sions emerging from poverty research. men, in the Northeast and West, ethnic public housing, and was not affected by differences appearing to be related to owning a house or car. geography. Since 71% of African Recent Poverty Statistics In 1992, the first full year following Americans live outside the Northeast The Census Bureau’s fall 1993 re- the end of the recession, the Bureau re- and West, where the recession had the ported that 36.9 million Americans port on poverty and income provided most dramatic impact, they were less lived in poverty. Of the 1.2 million the first detailed look at some of the ef- affected. On the other hand, a larger fects of the recession that began half who fell into poverty in 1993, 276,000 percentage of poor black families than were under eighteen, a poverty rate for way through 1990. By official stan- of white and Hispanic families were children of 21.9%. For those under age dards, 2.1 million more Americans headed by an unmarried woman. These were living in poverty in 1990 than in six the rate was 25%; for preschool households were more likely to receive children in households headed by sin- 1989. The poverty rate rose to 13.5% welfare benefits and less likely to have gle women it was 65.9%. This contrast- from 12.8% in 1989, and median annu- lost income due to recessionary lay- ed with a rate of 14.5% for Americans al household income fell 1.7% to offs. $29,943. The number of Americans liv- of all ages. Robert Greenstein, director of the ing in poverty had increased for the It is important to understand that the third year in a row. One out of every Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, increase in the number of poor children commenting on the Census Bureau’s seven now had an income below the occurred in families headed by married analysis, pointed to declining wages for poverty line. The number of poor was couples and those headed by single at its highest level since 1964. men. In homes with single women, the

2 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Poor In America

number of children in poverty de- uted to the near doubling of the per- crimes had risen by 48%. Using a new creased by 33,000. Still, the youngest centage of young families headed by a measure, a family risk index, analysts Americans were most at risk in house- single parent, which had risen to 37% found that 45% of the children born to holds headed by single women and at in 1991. new families had one of three disad- highest risk in households headed by Overall, incomes dropped 32% and vantages: their mother had not finished black women. This was due, in part, to high school, was not married, or was a the child poverty rate was now 40%, the fact that whites and Asian Ameri- teenager. Twenty-four percent of the the Fund maintained. This was viewed cans were better educated and earned as a product of the increase in single new families had two of these disad- more than African Americans and His- vantages and 11% had all three. In each parent families, but also of eroding panics in 1992, and therefore were category, minorities fared worse than wages and declining government wel- more likely to move out of poverty. fare and unemployment benefits. The others. The poverty rate for whites was 11.6%; conclusion of the report was that pover- Meanwhile, the Census Bureau was for Asian Americans 12.5%; for His- ty among children had spread alarming- reporting that more than a third of all panics 29.3%; and for African Ameri- ly in the 1980s, not only in large urban American youth aged fifteen to seven- cans 33.3%. The Bureau predicted a de- centers but in smaller cities as well. A teen had either dropped out of school cline in these rates with the end of the similar state-by-state analysis revealed or were at least one grade level behind recession. that approximately 18% of children, on their cohort. The rate for these contin- Child Poverty average, lived in families earning less gencies rose from 29.1% in 1980 to than poverty-level incomes in 1989. 34.8% in 1990. Thirty- two percent of The Children’s Defense Fund star- white students fell into this category; The Fund’s report also reminded us tled us in 1993 with their annual report 48% of blacks; 48.6% of Hispanics. claiming that young families with chil- that in 1992 the rich got richer. Nearly half of national family income went to The differences began appearing with 9 dren had less money now than their to 11 year-olds and continued through- the top fifth of families, while 4.4% counterparts a generation ago, and suf- out high school. fered from child poverty rates twice as went to the poorest fifth. Meanwhile, the United Nations’ Children’s Fund high even though they were better edu- Never-Married Mothers concluded that one-fifth of American cated than their predecessors. About And there were statistical surprises. half of all American children, the Fund children lived below the poverty line — four times the rate of most industri- In the summer of 1993, the Census Bu- indicated, were born into families head- alized nations, and twice that of Great reau reported a sharp increase in never- ed by a parent under thirty. In 1990 the married mothers — an increase of 60% annual incomes of such families fell Britain. over the past decade. This increase was 32.1%. Incomes for families with older Irrespective of the social policy de- particularly steep for educated profes- heads fell more modestly, by 6.4%, and bates swirling around the definition of sional women. The rate for black wom- families without children experienced a poverty, as well as its causes and ef- en rose to 56% from 49% a decade ear- rise in income of 11.2% over the same fects, the 1993 reports from the Census lier; the rate for Hispanic women rose period. Incomes for young families Bureau and the Children’s Defense to 33% from 23% over that period. Al- headed by individuals who had some Fund were sobering. Marian Wright though women who were poor, unedu- amount of college education fell 15%; Edelman, the president of the Fund, cated or members of minority groups for those headed by a high school grad- commented that the new statistics were still more likely to become single uate they fell 30%; and for those head- would translate to “more substance mothers, and their rates were rising, the ed by a high school drop-out they abuse, more school failure, more teen increase in single parenthood among plummeted 46%. Only those families pregnancy, more racial tension, more white educated women who had never headed by a college graduate saw a rise envy, more despair, and more cynicism married was more dramatic. The impli- in income — but only a 3% rise. — a long-term economic and social di- cations for anti-poverty strategies were The suggestion was that young fami- saster.” significant. Social norms discouraging lies today are more likely to be black or In the spring of 1993, the Center for single motherhood were crumbling Hispanic, and these groups have lower the Study of Social Policy released its across class and ethnic lines. With the average earnings than whites as a func- Kids Count Data Book, an annual pro- exception of Japan, the same trend was tion of lower official educational at- file of American children. Surveying occurring in other industrialized de- tainment and continuing discrimina- child well-being in ten areas of life mocracies. tion. The percentage of young families quality, the report found conditions with children headed by nonwhite par- worsening in six of these areas. The Poverty-Related Studies by the ents rose to 35% in 1991 from 23% in data on teen-age youth were particular- U.S. General Accounting Office 1974. Poverty rates, the Fund claimed, ly disturbing. Births to single mothers (GAO) had risen to 23.8% for children in had grown, as had the percentage of In their 1992 report, Poverty Trends young white families; 43.5% for those children not graduating from high 1980-1988: Changes in Family Com- in Hispanic families; and 57.9% for school and the percentage dying violent position and Income Sources Among those in black families. This was attrib- deaths. The arrest rate for violent the Poor, the GAO indicated that the

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 3 Features n The Poor In America

growth in the sheer number of single- changes in government policies. These tance payments. parent families was primarily the result policies increased poverty significantly n of the rapid increase in families headed during the 1980-1982 recession, and Adding the value of Food Stamps by never-married mothers and by an in- reduced it significantly during the and housing benefits, and subtract- crease in single male-headed families. 1990-1991 recession. ing federal and payroll taxes in cal- These subgroups of the poor had grown culating income for these families, Between 1980 and 1984, thirty-eight from 27% in 1980 to 38% in 1988, and did reduce the overall poverty rate in percent of the increase was attributable accounted for 1.3 million of the 1.7 to population growth, twenty-nine per- 1980 or in 1988. However, this re- million increase in the number of sin- cent to changing demographics, and calculation had little impact on the gle-parent families. forty-eight percent to changes in social trends described above, although it Most of the increase in never-mar- welfare policies, particularly AFDC. would have led to a higher estimated ried mothers occurred among those liv- There were changes in the income dis- increase in the poverty rate for sin- ing with their children as the sole fami- regard, in median state AFDC and gle-parent families because food and ly in a household. In contrast to Food Stamp benefits, and other welfare housing benefits removed fewer sin- previously-married women who were policies. Primarily, the Earned Income gle-parent families from poverty in not single mothers, these women were Tax Credit and indexing for inflation 1988 than in 1980. Subtracting child younger, more likely to have a child were responsible for reducing poverty care, child support and state income under six, less likely to have finished between 1989 and 1991. For children, taxes from family income affected high school, and more likely to have irrespective of racial or ethnic status, had a child while a teenager — all fac- almost sixty percent of the increase in overall poverty rates by less than tors associated with a high vulnerabili- child poverty was attributable to gov- one percentage point, even though ty to poverty. ernment policies of this kind. For white these expenses represented a sub- children, they accounted for close to stantial fifteen to twenty percent of Young families with children expe- half of the increase; for black children total income. rienced a dramatic increase in their poverty rates between 1980 and 1988, they explained 80%. The GAO’s 1991 report, Mother- resulting mainly from the increase in Income and other factors were con- Only Families, found that many single young single-parent families. These sidered by the Committee staff to con- mothers are likely to remain near or be- families represented nearly half of the tribute to increased child poverty. Most low the poverty line even if they work population of young family heads by of the increase, for example, was at full-time jobs. They face low earn- 1988. This demographic change alone among mother-only families. Changes ings, are particularly affected by lay- accounted for about 59% of the in- in income reduced poverty in this offs and other work interruptions, lack crease in poverty among young fami- group. Low wages in employment ac- important fringe benefits, and sustain lies — young single parents have much counted for nearly 100% of the poverty relatively high child care costs. The higher poverty rates than young mar- increases experienced during the 1990- GAO analysis indicated, as did the ried couples with children. The in- 1991 recession — however, this and oth- Congressional committee report, that creased rates were mainly due to a de- er influences were offset by more liberal the expansion of the Earned Income crease in real income from public government social welfare policies. Tax Credit and child care subsidies benefits — i.e. welfare and unemploy- could increase the percentage of poor ment insurance. Work effort in this Some Conclusions from the families living without public welfare, group had not declined. GAO Study but it suggested that many poor single mothers would still need better job The 1993 staff report prepared for Returning to the GAO’s study, the the Committee on Ways and Means of researchers came to these conclusions: skills and higher earnings to move out of poverty. They concluded as well that the U.S. House of Representatives also n The poor were more likely to be sin- many of these mothers would likely concluded that the declining anti-pov- gle-parent families, those headed by erty effectiveness of government poli- need to rely on some level of income a person with a disability, or nondis- supplements, such as partial public as- cies (social insurance, welfare and tax sistance payments, food stamps and policies) explained much of the in- abled single adults without children. crease in poverty. The report cited de- child support payments, to rise above n Demographic changes were increas- the poverty level. mographic changes, changes in wages ing the proportion of these most vul- and other private sources of income rel- nerable groups within the poverty Overall, the major findings of the ative to inflation, and changes in gov- GAO report were these: population. ernment policy as the main sources of a 1. Poor single mothers in the GAO re- poverty increase — 10-13% between n Despite a greater work effort among search sample tended to have less 1979 and 1991. The staff’s research certain high-risk groups, their in- education and work experience than found that between 1979 and 1989 al- creased real earned income was not nonpoor single mothers, and there- most half of the overall poverty in- compensating sufficiently for their fore lower earnings potential. The crease, and almost two-thirds of the in- loss of income from declining social crease in child poverty, were due to insurance and means-tested assis-

4 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Poor In America

plemental income sources or job [The results of the 1993 study by the Children’s training that substantially raised Defense Fund translate to] more substance their earnings. The GAO’s estimates abuse, more school failure, more teen pregnancy, suggested that 40% of these mothers would likely need a supplement of more racial tension, more envy, more despair, $2,400/year, with 15% needing and more cynicism—a long-term economic $1,200/year. and social disaster. n Larger child support payments were Marian Wright Edelman considered to benefit these poor President of the Children’s Defense Fund mothers. Only a third of this group received any child support, and the median amount received was only low wage jobs accessible to them In Workers At Risk, the GAO had about $1,200/year. This was not were less likely to provide health in- concluded that by the year 2000 the enough to move most families out of surance and paid sick leave. economy would add another eighteen poverty even though working. million jobs, but almost all would be in 2. These women had more children, n By 1994, the phase-in of the Earned the service-producing sector where Income Tax Credit was viewed as and younger children, than nonpoor part-time employment is most likely to increasing the percentage of poor women, therefore they had more dif- occur. Part-time workers represented ficulty finding and paying for child 19% of all workers in 1988, but they single mothers who could rise about care, and were more likely to lose represented 35% of all workers in ser- the poverty level without public as- time from work. They clearly re- vice occupations. Even after control- sistance by 29-37%. quired more income to stay above ling for education, gender and age, the Significant Studies on Single the poverty level. GAO found that part-time workers earned less per hour. Of families head- Parenthood and Poverty 3. Nearly half of these women had not ed by part-time workers, 21% had in- Sara McLanahan, a well-known finished high school, whereas only comes below the poverty line. Forty poverty researcher at the Institute for 17% of nonpoor single mothers had percent of single-parent families who Research on Poverty at the University not. On the Armed Forces Qualify- were part-time workers had incomes of Wisconsin has studied mother-only ing Test, three-fourths of these below the poverty line. Twenty-six per- families extensively. In her 1988 work- mothers had scores in the bottom cent received public assistance. ing paper, “Mother-Only Families: half of the distribution for all wom- n Among poor mothers who had Problems, Reproduction, and Politics,” en in their age group; nearly one- worked in the previous year, the me- written with Karen Booth, she draws fourth were in the bottom tenth. dian wage for poor mothers was some conclusions from her own re- $3.75/hour (in 1986 dollars), com- search and that of other poverty re- 4. Young poor mothers averaged two searchers regarding three aspects of pared with approximately $6/hour years of work experience compared these families’ lives: their economic for nonpoor single mothers. with five years for the nonpoor. This and social well-being, the consequenc- experience was frequently in short- n Seventy percent of full-time work- es of their level of life quality for their term or part-time jobs. Over one- ing mothers with preschool children children, and the role mother-only sta- half had less than one year of full- had to pay for child care. Child care tus plays in the politics of gender, race and social class. Based on a growing time work experience. Lay-offs, costs were amounting to 21-25% of body of research, McLanahan summa- difficulty in finding full-time em- income. Twenty percent of poor sin- rizes some of the conclusions from ployment, or reduced hours due to gle mothers who were not in the la- studies in this way: slack work, were making it hard for bor force cited lack of child care as these mothers to achieve self-suffi- the reason they were not seeking . . . We know a good deal about the economic aspects of these ciency. Among the poor women in employment. families. We know that single the research sample who were not n Thirty-five percent of employed mothers have higher poverty employed, 24% were looking for poor single mothers were estimated rates than other families and that work; another 5% were not looking to lack health insurance. a substantial portion of their because they had concluded no work poverty is a consequence of was available. Of those employed n If mother-only families were to es- marital disruption. We know part-time, 30% said they could not cape from poverty, the GAO pro- that single mothers bear most of find full-time employment. posed, the majority would need sup- the economic costs of their chil-

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 5 Features n The Poor In America

dren, even though their earnings er-only families are disadvantaged, but present, she claims, places a dispropor- capacity is limited by lack of the disadvantages are outcomes of a tionate share of child care responsibili- work experience, sex discrimi- wider range of influences than first ties on women, restricting their earn- nation in the labor market, and thought. Socioeconomic status is clear- ings capacity and economic the high cost of child care. We ly a major predictor of children’s at- independence. know that, on average, children tainment but does not account for all who grow up in mother-only the problems associated with family Studies of the Relationship families are less likely to com- breakup. In some studies children did Between Earnings and Poverty plete high school and more like- less well on standardized tests but the Many studies have examined this re- ly to be poor as adults than chil- differences were minimal. Grade point lationship, most reaching the conclu- dren who grow up with both averages and reports of negative behav- sion that low wage employment and in- natural parents. Moreover, we ior were more problematic for boys adequate earnings are the primary know that a significant part of from single-parent families headed by factors explaining the increase in fami- children’s lower attainment is women, but this was influenced as ly poverty. An interesting 1993 study due to economic deprivation in much by teachers’ attitudes and judg- by Robert Haveman and Lawrence Bu- their family of origin. Answers ments as by the characteristics of the ron for the Institute for Research on to other important questions are children or their families. Poverty gives us a unique perspective less clear . . . Since the early 1980s, McLanahan on this issue. For example, in addition to income suggests that new studies have indicat- The researchers began with a cri- loss, these mothers clearly lose social ed that children growing up in mother- tique of the current definition of pover- status. They are frequently forced to re- only families are disadvantaged not ty, claiming that both theoretical and locate and find employment, which cre- only during childhood but during ado- empirical work in economics recog- ates new stresses and the loss of impor- lescence and early adulthood. These nized the limitations of viewing cash tant social networks. Unlike working children obtain fewer years of educa- income as the primary measure of eco- mothers who tended, in one of tion and are more likely to drop out of nomic well-being. They proposed that a McLanahan’s studies, to relocate in school than children in two-parent fam- different indicator be used, namely the nonpoor areas, about 35% of black sin- ilies. They have lower earnings in Net Earnings Capacity, which reflected gle mothers lived in areas where 20% adulthood and are more likely to marry potential real consumption, and adjust- of residents are poor, and 10% lived in early and have children early, both ed for the size and composition of the areas where 40% are poor. within and outside marriage. Those family unit. Using this index they es- Researchers concerned about the ef- who marry are more likely to get di- tablished a new definition of poverty, vorced, therefore to become single par- fects of single parenthood on children Earnings Capacity Poverty — that is, a ents. And they are more likely to com- continue to search for answers to addi- family is poor if full use of its earnings tional questions. For example, some mit delinquent acts and abuse drugs capabilities would fail to generate and alcohol. It is significant that cur- studies show that closeness between enough income to lift the family out of rent research shows that the negative children and their divorced fathers poverty. They proceeded to explain tends to weaken following divorce, yet effects on children that appear to be re- how official poverty compares with lated to mother-only status are consis- this does not seem correlated with Earnings Capacity Poverty (ECP): tent across racial and ethnic groups. changes in these children’s academic They found that ECP rates grew achievements, social behavior or psy- However, McLanahan is quick to note that the relationship between socioeco- more rapidly, in general, than official chological well-being. There is exten- nomic status and socialization patterns poverty rates over the 1973-1988 peri- sive research indicating that it is con- od. However, official poverty rose flict within families rather than simply will require much more extensive study, including its potential positives. more rapidly for children. This pattern living in a mother-only family that has suggested a faster concentration of poor negative consequences for children. McLanahan advocates for a redistri- young children in families with low However, parental involvement and su- bution of support for poor single moth- current incomes than in families with pervision appear to weaken in single- ers across a broader array of societal low earnings capacity, reflecting the parent families, even though sometimes institutions: the family, the market, and substantial reduction in benefit levels mediated by the extended family. the state. She also thinks we must ex- in important family-based income tend support to a wider range of moth- Research on the intergenerational transfer programs over that period. To consequences of marital dissolution, er-only families. “Dependency itself,” explain this further, they looked at spe- she says, “is not the problem, but rather McLanahan says, has been shaped by cific patterns of ECP. the loss of power and the feeling of public and political attitudes as much Several conclusions emerged from as by research methods. However, she helplessness that often accompanies it.” She believes that ultimately a solution their analysis: feels that research since the late 1970s to the problems faced by mother-only has “moved beyond simplistic patho- n The rate of ECP in the U.S. between logical and idealizing perspectives.” It families will require a reorganization of 1973 and 1988 grew more rapidly the sexual division of labor, which at has emphasized that children in moth-

6 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Poor In America

than the current income poverty rate parent families were able to escape the ticularly for individuals and families (a 31% vs. 27% increase). effects of wage stagnation over the with differing life chances, characteris- 1973-1988 period by joining the labor tics and experiences, is always com- n The increase in the incidence of force and increasing their work hours. plex. Social policies have tended to be ECP came largely from groups gen- The more vulnerable groups could have limited by polarized politics and short- erally viewed as relatively secure experienced substantial improvements term budgets to one or a small set of economically: whites, intact fami- in income, they say, if 1) there had the influences outlined. Consequently, lies, and those with relatively high been a more rapid increase in their job these policies can only be expected to educational levels. Conversely, the opportunities, or 2) they had chosen to contribute to a solution to poverty, not more vulnerable groups — minori- utilize their increased earnings capabil- to reduce it single-handedly. Yet the ties, mother-only families, and those ities at higher rates than they did. American public is encouraged by the with low education — had smaller media and often by policymakers them- Some Conclusions from the selves to entertain higher expectations increases in ECP than in official Selected Studies Reviewed in for these policies than they can possi- poverty. This Article bly accomplish. Clearly, much more n The patterns for children were quite The research highlighted in this arti- work is required by social scientists, different: for children younger than cle merely brushes the surface of the policymakers and program designers in six and younger than eighteen, offi- thousands of studies conducted over addressing the causes and effects of ris- cial poverty rates grew by 35% and the past three decades to answer ques- ing American poverty, and in develop- 28% respectively, whereas ECP tions about the causes and effects of ing interrelated, mutually reinforcing social policies — such as an overarch- rates grew by 29 % and 22%. poverty in America. Looking at this highly selective sampling, we have to ing national poverty policy. n The percentage of children living in ask what seems to matter most in un- families that could not earn suffi- derstanding disparities in life quality Editor’s Note cient income to escape poverty was and opportunity. What appears to mat- far higher than for all individuals ter is outlined in Figure 1. For more specific information on the and families. Over 15% of Ameri- The specific nature of relationships references in this article, please see ca’s young children were living in among the influences noted above, par- the Resources Section. families that did not have the capac- ity to escape poverty by working and earning. n The highest ECP rates were concen- Figure 1 n Influences on Social Disparity in America trated among blacks (18.5%), His- panics (11.9%), female family heads Positive Influences Negative Influences (32.7%, and mothers on welfare Adequate basic education. High school di- Absence of high school diploma and fur- (56.3%). For some of these groups ploma; some college. ther education. the rate of ECP was nearly as high Skills trainings, retraining, upgrading. Lack of skill training and work experience. as the official poverty rate. Full-time, year-around employment. Ade- Part-time employment and absence of quate wages and work benefits. fringe benefits. According to the authors, the differ- Child support from absent parents. Ade- Absence of or low level of child support. ent patterns in the two poverty rates for quate unemployment insurance and the more vs.less vulnerable were con- means-tested cash benefits. sistent with research evidence produced Public supplementation of low-wage work- Declining public income support. by others on changes in male/female ers’ earnings. Public assistance to low- wage rates, cash transfer benefits tar- wage workers re: child care and medical geted to female-headed families, and costs. the work effort of spouses. They were Tax reduction strategies, such as the also consistent with the large relative Earned Income Tax Credit. increase in joblessness and underem- General economic and job growth, low un- Economic growth without job growth, a rise ployment found for younger and older employment and inflation. Economic devel- in the wages of low-wage workers or an in- workers, with increases in work time opment efforts in communities where most crease in jobs within the ability of workers and employment rates for those living are poor. to pay for transportation to and from work. in intact families, and with increases Nonminority status. Minority status. for whites and those with relatively Living in a two-parent family. Living in a mother-only family. high levels of education. Living in a community where most are not Living in a community where most are The researchers proposed that those poor. poor. with education, skills and life in two-

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 7 Features n The Poor In America

nn tion and later occupational status. The that time, based on empirical evidence, A Perspective on findings also discredited the wide- but instead they held to their previous Poverty: Christopher spread view at that time that poverty positions, leading to “a grand debate” was largely inherited. While many were about poverty and welfare. Between Jencks poor because they had difficulty mov- 1983 and 1986, Jencks wrote a series of A controversial but intriguing social ing up out of poverty, many others book reviews relevant to this debate in scientist specializing in poverty re- were poor because they had moved the New York Review of Books. One of search, Christopher Jencks is known down into poverty. Given Jencks’s these dealt with the work of conserva- for his independent thinking. There is longstanding interest in the relationship tive Charles Murray. These reviews an admirable consistency about his ef- between schooling, equal opportunity shaped a new outlook on his part. fort to moderate the extremes of politi- and economic success, these studies Parameters of the Debate cal ideology through reliance on sound caused him to rethink his liberal views research, in understanding poverty and about social policy. Murray’s most publicized position developing appropriate social policies In 1972, Jencks’s rethinking led to was that the growth of transfer pro- to reduce it. Jencks’s 1972 book Ine- Inequality. The book’s basic argument grams had impoverished poor people quality: A Reassessment of the Effect of was that income inequality among rather than enriching them. Jencks vig- Family and Schooling in America, en- adults was not highly related to differ- orously denounced this position based raged many reviewers. He proposed ences in adults’ experiences as chil- on empirical facts. But Murray also ar- that genetic factors likely exerted con- dren. Family background appeared to gued that building a safety net for non- siderable influence on children’s edu- play only a small role with respect to working single mothers had under- cational test performance, leading to the variation in men’s incomes. Even if mined traditional social values about one significant form of inequality. everyone received exactly the same marriage and work. Jencks tended to Some labeled this position racist. But a amount of education some would re- agree. This policy, he thought, had not close reading of Jencks’s work over the ceive incomes far below the average, provided single mothers with a socially years reveals a careful study of poverty, and not be able to afford basic life ne- acceptable strategy for supporting their and positions on a range of poverty-re- cessities. He concluded that there must families. Neither had low wage jobs for lated issues that negate such labeling. be a redistribution of money, in addi- single mothers provided family-sustain- In fact, Jencks’s views are difficult to tion to a redistribution of educational ing wages. pigeonhole culturally or politically, resources. Unfortunately no central Jencks suggests that both conserva- some sounding decidedly conservative, government plan or structure existed in tives and liberals will have to embrace others liberal. In all cases, Jencks’s the years following his conclusion that more ideological flexibility. Conserva- analyses inform us. This article pro- created a flawless safety net. The work- tives will have to give up their pre- vides an overview of some of the ideas ing poor, for example, received almost sumption that single mothers and their in Jencks’s most recent book, Rethink- no assistance. And Jencks contended children can survive without govern- ing Social Policy: Race, Poverty, and that as long as liberal initiatives re- ment help if only they had employ- the Underclass, published in 1992 by mained wedded to the equalization of ment. Liberals will have to give up the Harvard University Press. opportunity, the debate would focus on idea that single mothers have a right to means rather than ends. History government help even if they are un- On the other hand, conservatives willing to take a low wage job. A more Jencks claims that the New Deal were claiming that the American safety generous Earned Income Tax Credit, he produced a cluster of programs intend- net had failed to distinguish between says, may be one alternative, as well as ed to prevent nonpoor families from the deserving and undeserving poor, guaranteed eligibility for public hous- falling into poverty, whereas Johnson’s that governmental redistribution was ing, a more generous Food Stamp al- Great Society programs were designed unjust because it robbed the competent, lowance, and a Medicaid system fami- to assist the poor in moving upward. conscientious wealthy in order to sup- lies can join by paying a small per- The shift in emphasis was from eco- port those with no legitimate claim to centage of their monthly income. When nomic security to economic opportuni- assistance, and that such redistribution individuals cannot find work, public ty. The ‘opportunity era’ was character- undermined people’s incentive to ac- employment could be the answer. ized by the assumption that poverty quire skills and work hard, leaving less was the result of growing up poor, and However, Jencks avoids developing to redistribute. Jencks saw both the lib- a coherent alternative to traditional lib- that education would guarantee move- erals and conservatives of the 1960s eralism or conservatism, settling in- ment out of poverty. These assump- and 1970s as vastly oversimplifying tions were not supported by social re- stead for the single consistent message poverty, giving more attention to ideol- that ideology alone leads to failed so- search, Jencks proposes, pointing to the ogy and values than to facts. cial policy. We need to combine a few Coleman Report of 1966 and the re- search conducted by Peter Blau and Conservative criticisms of egalitari- assumptions about how we think the world ought to work, he says, with a Dudley Duncan. These studies found an social policy reached a peak in the large number of assumptions about only a weak correlation between educa- 1980s. Jencks suggests that liberals needed to have modified their views by how it really does work.

8 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Poor In America

In general, Jencks goes with cultural of the poor, and their social, cultural spent on the poor, poverty should have conservatism, economic egalitarianism and moral condition. Federal policies, fallen nearly to zero, Jencks suggests and incremental reform! He favors tra- he reminds us, were intended to raise — but not all of it was. This spending ditional social norms about how people the poor’s material well-being. Con- also covered programs intended prima- ought to behave in society. But he in- trary to Murray’s view, the material po- rily for the middle class. Only one-fifth sists that as long as some people have sition of the poor showed marked im- of these funds was explicitly targeted to to work at less than satisfactory jobs, provement after 1965, Jencks points low income families, and only one- others should not have the right to out. tenth was for programs providing cash, refuse them. Quoting from Rethinking food or housing for these families. Social Policy, “if a society cannot cre- The Poverty Rate A realistic assessment of what social ate broad consensuses about who is re- Jencks uses the following evidence policy accomplished between 1965 and sponsible for raising children and sup- to make his case against Murray. The 1980 must also recognize, according to porting them economically, it will soon official poverty rate fell from 30% to Jencks, that demographic changes have a lot of children for whom nobody 22% of the population in the 1950s, would have increased the poverty rate takes much responsibility. Likewise, if and from 22% to 13% during the over that period, other things being we cannot maintain political consen- 1960s. The official rate was still 13% equal. The number of people over six- suses about who is obligated to work in 1980, at which time the earlier ty-five and the number living in fami- and at what kinds of jobs, we will not progress stopped. Furthermore, these lies headed by women grew steadily be able to agree on a system for helping statistics underestimate actual progress from 1950 to 1980. Since neither group those we do not expect to work.” since 1965. And official poverty statis- includes many employed people, Furthermore, Jencks does not be- tics do not take into account the chang- Jencks points out that economic growth lieve that a culture supported by “undi- es in families’ need for money, given does not move either group out of pov- luted individualism,” and which toler- the availability of noncash benefits. erty quickly. From 1960 to 1965, for ates “selfishness and irresponsibility,” These benefits essentially add indirect- example, economic growth lowered of- can survive for long. He advocates that ly to poor families’ disposable in- ficial poverty among households head- we develop a long-term strategy to deal comes. When the Census Bureau values ed by women by 3%, whereas it low- with poverty which can be carried out noncash benefits on the basis of what ered it to 5% for the nation as a whole. they save the recipient, it finds that through a sequence of small, logical, Jencks also reminds us that AFDC incremental steps that are interrelated these benefits lowered the 1980 poverty changed substantially in that period. It politically and economically. Political rate from 13% to 10%. Using this ad- justment, the proportion of the popula- became easier to combine AFDC with consensus, at each step, should precede employment, and benefits rose signifi- change. tion living below the poverty line was cantly. Half of all persons headed by almost twice as high in 1965 as in The American Safety Net 1980, and almost three times as high in women were receiving AFDC by 1970. Nevertheless, the “deserving” poor (the 1950 as in 1980. Jencks concludes that Jencks defines Charles Murray’s elderly and disabled) were benefiting view that federal anti-poverty programs Murray was wrong: the poor made a great deal of material progress after disproportionately, and their poverty were not only ineffective but harmful rates were falling dramatically. The 1965. Also, there was a significant re- as “the most persuasive statement so far 1970s increased acceptance of a differ- of this variation of Social Darwinism.” distribution of medical care, which im- proved the poor’s health. ence between the deserving and unde- Most recently, Murray’s position gave serving, with single mothers and mar- moral credence to budget cuts intended Jencks maintains that this progress ginally-employed men identified as the to reduce the deficit. Jencks devotes an in material well-being and health oc- latter — even though single mothers entire chapter to refuting Murray’s curred at a faster pace between 1950 fared better because of public support claim. and 1965 than from 1965 to 1980 be- for their children’s futures. However, cause the economy slowed after 1970, Murray selected 1965 as the turning benefits stopped keeping pace with in- lowering family income. Preferring not point in terms of federal programs be- flation after 1972. The welfare rolls did coming fatal remedies. Basic indicators to acknowledge that economic decline not increase any faster than the popu- affected large numbers of Americans, of well-being declined in the 1960s, he lation after 1975. Murray rejected Jencks’s explanation said, because federal policies made it Murray claimed that keeping women profitable for the poor to behave in the that even though a 4% increase in me- dian income lowered net poverty by off the welfare rolls would pressure short-term in ways that were destruc- them into acquiring education, skills 1.2% because of expanding social wel- tive in the long-term. In addition, these and employment. Jencks says it did not. policies masked long-term losses. They fare spending, median income grew so much more slowly after 1965 that the Since the group at risk was growing, produced more rather than less poor. In families headed by women became a decline in net poverty also slowed. In making an assessment of this singular rising proportion of the poor. All told, argument, Jencks cautions us to distin- fact, social welfare spending grew from 11.2% to 18.7% of GNP between 1965 Jencks’s conclusions conflicted with guish between the material condition Murray’s in several ways: and 1980. If all this money had been

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 9 Features n The Poor In America

n In conflict with Murray’s claims, net women in general. Illegitimacy has ris- But Jencks says latent poverty in- poverty declined almost as fast from en in American society at a steady ac- creased because Social Security, SSI, 1965 to 1980 as before. celerating rate since 1950. So Jencks food stamps and private pensions al- concludes that Murray’s explanation of lowed more of the elderly to stop work- n The decline in poverty after 1965, the rise in single motherhood and ille- ing and live on their own, which hardly unlike the decline before 1965, oc- gitimacy was seriously flawed. undermined their life quality. Another curred despite unfavorable economic reason Murray gave for the increase in However, Jencks sees something conditions, and depended largely on else in the Ellwood and Bane studies. latent poverty was that more women and children came to depend on AFDC government efforts to assist the They show a significant effect for instead of on a man. This, too, Jencks poor. AFDC on the living arrangements of single mothers. It allowed them to suggests wryly, may be in the best in- n The groups that benefited from gov- terests of life quality. ernment efforts were precisely those move out of the parental home. The re- individuals that policymakers de- searchers also found that benefits ap- Murray’s enthusiasm about the role peared to increase the divorce rate of work led him to claim that govern- sired should benefit — i.e. the elder- slightly. The Seattle/Denver Income ment programs also reduced men’s ly and disabled. The groups that did Maintenance Experiments had found willingness to work. But there is no ev- not benefit were the ones policy- some evidence of this as well. Jencks idence, Jencks says, that AFDC con- makers were not as interested in — says this may be due, in part, to the fact tributed to rising male unemployment. i.e the undeserving poor. that divorced women remarry more Murray’s own data showed that black quickly in states with very low benefits. men’s unemployment rates fell during n The improvements in material well- But the apparent relationship between the late 1960s, despite the fact that being among the poor took place de- high benefits and divorce has little rele- black women represented nearly half of spite demographic changes that vance for Murray’s thesis, he says. If all AFDC funds targeted to low income should have made things worse. changes in the welfare system were en- families. couraging teenagers to drop out of Single Motherhood and school, have children, and avoid em- Jencks’s Conclusions About the Illegitimacy ployment, as Murray suggests, Jencks Safety Net Murray’s contention was that chang- recognizes that Murray would be right There is no question about Jencks’s es in social policy, particularly in the about the long-term cost of that behav- view of Murray’s claims concerning case of the welfare system, were re- ior. But if welfare changes simply en- the destructive effects of government sponsible for the increase in families courage women who were about to be programs: the position is indefensible. headed by women and for rising illegit- or who were already in unsatisfactory However, he credits Murray with rais- imacy rates after 1965. In general, marriages to separate or divorce, then ing issues we must address. Past social states with high welfare benefits had one must rethink societal costs and policies have not, Jencks says, struck a less illegitimacy than states with low benefits. good balance between “collective com- ones, Jencks says — even after these In Jencks’s thinking, the empirical passion and individual responsibility.” rates have been adjusted for differences evidence against the welfare system We have swung back and forth between by race, education, region, urbanization centers on the tendency for high bene- these two ideals. and other factors. fits to encourage single mothers to set Murray’s admonition that the pro- Jencks’s research, and the classic up their own households, to end bad motion of virtue requires rewards was studies conducted by David Ellwood marriages, and possibly to make di- not lost on Jencks. It prompted him to and Mary Jo Bane, supported this con- vorced mothers more cautious about re- say that few victims are completely in- clusion. The level of a state’s AFDC marrying. All these potential costs, he nocent. Helping those who are not do- benefits had no measurable effect on its says, seem more like social benefits. He ing their best to help themselves, he rate of illegitimacy. In 1975, three- suggests that a common mystique is the goes on, poses difficult moral and po- fourths of all unmarried mothers under idea that these women will be losers in litical problems. Almost all of us in this twenty-four lived with their parents the long-run because government gives society, he acknowledges, think it is during the first year after the birth of them more choices. better for people to work in order to be their baby. Women living with their self-sufficient than not to work. On the Latent Poverty and parents were not likely to be concerned other hand, he recalls that the U.S. has Employment about the size of their welfare checks. been a ‘second chance’ for many of our High benefits did not widen the dispari- Murray called the rise in the “latent” ancestors, and we have been committed ty in illegitimate births between women poverty rate (the rate if transfer pay- to the idea that people can change. On with a high probability of receiving ments were not counted) from 18% in balance, however, Jencks cautions us AFDC and women with a low probabil- 1968 to 22% in 1980 as “the most about giving too many second chances, ity. Furthermore, there was no evidence damning measure” of policy failure, since they can undermine people’s mo- that illegitimacy increased faster among because self- sufficiency is of primary tivation to do well the first time probable AFDC recipients than among importance in determining life quality. around. As Murray emphasized, no so-

10 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Poor In America

ciety can survive if it allows people to Jencks agrees with Wilson that these conclusion that communities begin to violate its norms without an application are important factors, but says they decay when people make “narrowly of sanctions — the ‘system’ is not al- need to be understood within a larger self-interested choices.” Jencks sug- ways at fault. framework of cultural change. What gests that the unwritten moral contract Despite its general wrong-headed- Jencks wants us to think about is the between the poor and the rest of society dramatic change in American attitudes is fragile at best. He is adamant that the ness, in Jencks’s view, he sees Mur- in the 1960s : about sex, marriage, di- solution is neither to tear up the con- ray’s Losing Ground as reframing the social policy debate: vorce and parenthood. This change per- tract or to deny that the poor are re- sisted into the 1970s and 1980s, and is sponsible for their own behavior. Wil- n Murray asks whether our social poli- now well established. The interests and son suggests a revised social contract, cies actually work. rights of individuals, he says, began to one that involves tighter labor markets, overwhelm traditional mores and val- more job training, children’s allowanc- n He clarifies that a successful pro- ues. For the privileged, this change did es, subsidized child care for working gram must not only help those it not create serious problems, and sup- mothers, and other programs that seeks to assist, but must do it in a port for increasingly individualistic “mainstream” the underclass. Jencks way that precludes rewarding folly values gradually institutionalized them. adds a commitment to cultural change and irresponsibility, or vice. Poor children suffered the most from to this contract, much as Jesse Jackson the change. Jencks remarks that “once and other black leaders are now pro- n He recommends that social policies the two-parent norm loses its moral moting. must consider both rewards and sanctity, the . . . [self-interest] . . . that sanctions. always pulled poor parents apart often The Underclass became overwhelming . . . It is the con- Naming and defining an “under- The Urban Ghetto and The junction of economic vulnerability and Underclass class” is a relatively new phenomenon. cultural change that has proven disas- Because experts use different criteria to Jencks turns to William Julius Wil- trous.” rank people in society, different people son’s work on the urban ghetto to de- There is also the issue of historic are assigned arbitrarily to the social velop his perspective. (Wilson was in- prejudice and discrimination, which elite, middle class, lower class, and un- terviewed extensively regarding his Jencks feels exerts a larger influence derclass. Jencks selects four indicators series of books in Issue #5/6 of Evalua- than current discrimination. It has af- for assigning rankings: income level, tion Forum.) Wilson, he says, proposes fected African Americans’ competitive income sources, cultural skills and this thesis about the underclass: position. He points to information on moral norms. Whether we can say the n Joblessness has increased among black-white performance on standard- underclass is growing depends on young black men partly due to fewer ized educational tests to make this which indicator you study. Jencks sug- unskilled and semi-skilled blue-col- point. When black and white parents gests the following: lar jobs in big cities where a large are matched for years of education, oc- n Income Level: The underclass does cupation, income and family structure, number of African Americans now not usually include the elderly poor, white children still outperform black live. children, not only on vocabulary but on the working poor, or others who are poor through “no fault of their n The two-parent black family in cen- reading comprehension, arithmetic rea- tral cities is disappearing because soning, and computational skills. Black own:” the impoverished underclass. male joblessness has made marriage children clearly know less than white n Income Sources: The underclass less attractive. children when they enter school. usually refers to people who get There are a number of theories about their money from irregular work, n Single parenthood and male unem- causes, such as linguistic differences, public assistance, crime and hand- ployment have increased among parental neglect of children’s cognitive outs: the jobless underclass. poor blacks because the black mid- development, a lack of self-confidence dle class has been moving out of the on the part of children due to long-term n Cultural Skills: The underclass is ghetto. prejudice and discrimination, and poor- usually considered to be people who lack the basic skills required to deal n As a result of the above, black inner- er schools. Social scientists simply do not know why, Jencks concedes, just as with America’s major institutions: city schools have deteriorated, ghet- they do not know why Jews learn more the educational underclass. to businesses have closed, police re- in school than gentiles, or Asian Amer- ceive less community support, icans learn more than European Ameri- n Moral Norms: The underclass is of- job-seekers have fewer employed cans. However, there is support for the ten equated with people who appear neighbors to help them find jobs, and youth have fewer role models that reflect central American values.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 11 Features n The Poor In America

to be indifferent to three major middle class values — holding a steady job, If a society cannot create broad consensuses about postponing childbearing until mar- who is responsible for raising children and riage, and refraining from violence. supporting them economically, it will soon have Many Americans think of the under- a lot of children for whom nobody takes much class as nonwhite. Using the indicators responsibility. Likewise, if we cannot maintain above, Jencks makes it clear that the underclass includes considerably more political consensuses about who is obligated to whites than nonwhites, even though work and at what kinds of jobs, we will not whites are seldom a majority in under- be able to agree on a system for helping class neighborhoods. On the other hand, nonwhites are more likely to live those we do not expect to work. in racially segregated neighborhoods Christopher Jencks and to have underclass characteristics. in Rethinking Social Policy The “impoverished” underclass is generally viewed as the undeserving subset of the poor. There has been much speculation, Jencks says, about Underclass Male also misses a substantial number of whether this segment of the poverty Joblessness jobless men who are not heads of households, he says, such as homeless population is growing. Researchers Sociologists have traditionally men and men temporarily living with have found no clear trend through the viewed chronic joblessness as a major 1970s. About one-third of urban fami- characteristic of the lower class and un- partners. lies who were poor in one year escaped derclass. It places individuals outside It is clear also, from Jencks’s view- poverty the following year — although the mainstream of the occupational sys- point, that long-term joblessness is re- many fell back into poverty in some tem. Jencks amends this judgment. It is lated to educational status, particularly subsequent year. Jencks found no sys- the combination of chronic joblessness high school completion. Men with low- tematic statistical changes between and inadequate income that moves men er wages also worked fewer weeks out 1967 and 1972, or between 1981 and into the underclass. of a year. What we do not know is why 1986, in the proportion of children liv- these things are so. We do know, he ing in families whose mean income Based on Jencks’s research, among prime age white men (aged 25-54) the says, that wages have become more un- over a six-year interval (including Food equal since 1970. Any increase in ine- rate of short-term joblessness shows no Stamps) fell below the poverty line. quality will mean that fewer men can But there were racial differences. The clear trend from 1963 through 1987, hovering around 7% except during re- find jobs that pay enough to make work estimated incidence of long-term pov- seem worthwhile. This could be a par- cessions. Long-term joblessness, how- erty in 1967-1972 was 30% for black tial explanation for the decline in male ever, has risen from 2% in 1963 to 5% children; 4.4% for white children. In employment. 1981-1986 it was 38% for blacks; 5% in 1987. The business cycle appears to for whites. have very little influence on long-term Jencks adds that the research sug- unemployment. For black prime- age gests that long-term joblessness in- Many believe that poverty is becom- men, short-term joblessness is more creased a black man’s chances of being ing more “hereditary” but Jencks says common than for whites, but there is no poor by about 40% in the early 1960s. the evidence refutes this. Blacks repre- clear upward trend. In contrast, there is Poverty among jobless black men de- sented 31% of the poor in 1967 and in a significant upward trend, much steep- clined during the late 1960s, but it de- 1988. Black poverty has simply be- er than for whites, in long-term black clined at the same rate for men who were come more urban, he argues. However, joblessness after 1969. And the busi- working, leaving the net economic bene- more poor households had socially ac- ness cycle has more influence over the fit of working unchanged. This persisted ceptable reasons for being poor in 1968 employment experiences of these men throughout the last two decades. than in 1987; 74% in 1968 and 54% in than for whites. Furthermore, Jencks In terms of the geographic distribu- 1987. Even though Jencks is quick to indicates that the Current Population tion of poor jobless men, Jencks claims comment that these estimates are based Survey is likely underestimating long- on arbitrary definitions, some of which it is fairly clear from the data that the term black joblessness because it does proportion of prime-age men who were are not entirely just, from a policy per- not include the inmates of prisons or both long-term jobless and poor ap- spective it is important that a declining mental institutions — these men are proportion of poor families were defined proximately doubled between 1963 and more likely than others to be jobless 1987, and that there was a much larger by the public as deserving in the 1980s. when not in these institutions. The CPS

12 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Poor In America

absolute increase in the worst economic 3. The welfare system allows single may, he suggests, make a real differ- areas. This was in the context of signif- mothers to keep their children if ence. icantly reduced disparities between they can supplement their welfare He also recommends against puni- blacks and whites in reading skills and check and conceal this from the wel- tive welfare policies: “The generosity high school graduation rates since fare department. If we prevent such or stinginess of the welfare system has 1970. supplementation, more mothers will almost no effect on a states’ illegitima- Black joblessness rose even with have to give up their children. cy rate and only a modest effect on the real wages held constant. Jencks ex- number of single mothers.” Beyond plains this as a product of discrimina- 4. Because unskilled welfare mothers’ that, a punishing strategy will only in- tion, and possibly the decreasing will- potential earnings are so low, work crease material hardship. We should ingness of black men to accept lacks an economic pay-off for those concentrate, he believes, on helping poorly-paid menial jobs. Since fewer who follow welfare rules. “The es- those who work at low-wage jobs by black men are living with a wife and sence of the ‘welfare trap’ is not that providing universal basic education children, they may have less incentive welfare warps women’s personali- and job training; raising the minimum to take a job they do not want. Illegal ties or makes them pathologically wage; strengthening child support en- work does not seem to be an explana- dependent . . . The essence of the forcement; allowing all eligible single tion, Jencks asserts. Blacks’ share of il- trap is that . . . low-wage jobs pay mothers to collect AFDC regardless of legal income has not grown over the how much outside income they receive even worse.” period in question, and arrests fell in (a policy he understands is politically the 1970s, rising only incrementally 5. Welfare families, on average, need impossible). during the 1980s. goods and services costing an aver- His preference is to construct a new With Wilson, Jencks concludes that age of $12,000/year. If they are system, one that concentrates on help- the movement of jobs from central cit- working in legitimate jobs, they ing all parents who work in low-wage ies to the suburbs explains much of would need an additional $800 for jobs — through government-subsidized youth unemployment. But Jencks again medical bills, $300 for clothing, or assisted fringe benefits. These bene- wants us to see the context. Rising $500 for transportation, and $1,200 fits would: long-term joblessness is not the unique for child care — or a total of n Provide cash income by way of the experience of minorities in depressed $16,000/year, which is the poverty Earned Income Tax Credit. areas. It increased for all age groups af- threshold the public set for families ter 1970 and kept rising during the in a recent Gallup survey. If welfare n Provide tax credits for child care ex- 1980s. The same trend was occurring mothers earned $6/hour they would penses if the adults in the family among all but the best-educated whites, work full-time. and among black college graduates. have to work 2,667 hours/year. If they worked every week and took no n Allow all low-wage workers to pur- Welfare vacation, they would have to put in chase Medicaid coverage for 5% of 51 hours/week. Without additional In Rethinking Social Policy, Jencks their incomes, or universal health in- ends his analysis with a commentary on help, the average welfare mother surance with premiums tied to in- the welfare system. Based on his re- cannot be self-sufficient. come. search and that of his colleagues, he ar- 6. The evaluations of work/welfare ini- n Give all parents who work a tax rives at the following conclusions: tiatives indicate that 1) most training credit for housing expenses. 1. Few families can make ends meet on programs for welfare mothers have n Provide mortgage subsidies for welfare and food stamps alone, giv- been part-time, short-term and inex- working parents who buy homes in en historical low benefits and recent pensive; 2) most have raised welfare low-income neighborhoods. declines in these low benefits. recipients’ annual earnings enough to justify their modest cost; 3) most n Provide disability benefits for wom- 2. Breaking welfare rules regarding the produced only small increases in en who are clearly unemployable. reporting of all sources of income is earnings (at most $2,000/year in a byproduct of being on welfare with This is his long-range agenda for ad- 1989 dollars), and 4) because of the inadequate benefits, not exposure to dressing poverty. small income benefits most did not a deviant subculture. Neither family move many mothers out of the wel- What Is the End Product of background nor race nor living in an fare system. Jencks’s Rethinking of Social unsatisfactory neighborhood influ- Policy? ences a welfare recipients’ willing- Jencks says we should stop expect- ness to break the rules. ing low cost programs to work mira- Jencks provides evidence that not cles. A universal job training program everything has gotten worse for people that is longer-term and more intensive at the bottom of the class system since

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 13 Features n The Poor In America

nn 1970 — “economic conditions have de- tion to the need to create and maintain teriorated for workers without a higher Reducing Poverty: sustained political support for policies education, and two-parent families General Approaches that uphold targeted benefits and spe- have become scarcer, but welfare de- cially-tailored public social services. pendency has not increased since the Given what we know about poverty, Furthermore, they do not provide a ra- 1970s, and illiteracy, teenage mother- what are our policy choices in address- tionale for the perceived inequity repre- hood and violence have declined some- ing rising poverty? This article gives sented by little or no public assistance what or remained the same.” But he ad- attention to two general approaches to to working-class families who are mits that these trends do not fit together problem-solving in the poverty area: struggling economically but have to in any simple fashion. He says we use those examined by Theda Skocpol and pay taxes for programs directed to the class labels, like ‘a growing underclass,’ Robert Greenstein in The Urban Un- poor. And they seem unconcerned precisely because we want to render the derclass, edited in 1991 by Christopher about low income voters who may ste- world simpler than it really is. Jencks and Paul Peterson. reotype and reject the poor on those The policy strategy Jencks recom- Skocpol is an advocate of universal- grounds. Skocpol claims that the latter is a tendency well documented by mends is an examination of the poverty ism. Greenstein appreciates the benefits cross-national research, which finds population’s problems one at a time, of taking a universalistic approach in asking how each has changed and what reducing growing poverty, but finds that universal programs are more sus- tainable in mixed economy democra- is responsible for the change. He pre- virtue in targeting. Their views mirror cies even though they are more expen- dicts we will find relationships among a debate over antipoverty approaches factors weaker than class stereotypes that has persisted for decades. sive. lead us to assume. It is interesting that The history of U.S. social policies in this era of “comprehensive” strate- The Universal Approach leads the author to these conclusions: gies Jencks appears to support a new Skocpol relishes the new interest in n Antipoverty policies that have been form of incrementalism. He feels we poverty issues, but cautions those fo- targeted on the poor alone have not must search for a new realism in the cusing on poverty in the 1990s to avoid been politically sustainable, and way we view the poor’s problems and the resurrection of the “flawed pre- have stigmatized the poor — exam- be willing to endure an immense sumptions and tactics” of the War on amount of trial and error. If we cannot Poverty and the Great Society. The ples being poorhouses, widows’ tolerate and manage piecemeal reforms, greatest hope, she feels, lies with those pensions, early AFDC, and even the he says “looking for meta-solutions is proposing “universalism” rather than broader income transfers of the almost certain to be time wasted so far “targeting” — that is, those who advo- Johnson and Kennedy eras. as the American underclass is con- cate for broader social programs that n Some universalistic social policies cerned. If we want to reduce poverty, include nonminorities and the middle joblessness, illegitimacy, violence or de- class as well as the economically disad- have been very successful — exam- spair, we will surely need to change our vantaged. ples being public education and the institutions and attitudes in hundreds of broadly-defined social security sys- small ways, not in one big way.” She refers to the work of William tem. Julius Wilson to bolster this argument, suggesting that we must improve the n There is flexibility within certain Editor’s Note poor’s life chances and condition by universal policy frameworks which emphasizing strategies that are publicly permits the provision of additional For those interested in pursuing acceptable and appeal across ethnic and benefits and services to less privi- Christopher Jencks’s ideas further, class lines to the more advantaged leged individuals and families with- please see: groups in society. out stigmatizing them. The author Jencks, C. and K. Edin. “The Real Wel- Critics of universal programs, how- terms this third conclusion “target- fare Problem,” in American Prospect, ever, point to the greater cost of wide- Winter 1990. ing within universalism.” spread benefits, and their likely dispro- Jencks, C. and P.E. Peterson (Editors) portionate distribution to those who do Skocpol moves from these basic The Urban Underclass, Washington, not really need them, bypassing those conclusions, rich in assumptions, to her D.C.: The Brookings Institution, who need them the most. These cap- proposal that new policies “speak with 1991. tious analysts claim that only highly a consistent moral voice” to all Ameri- Jencks, C. and S.E. Mayer. Poverty concentrated and comprehensive bene- cans who would receive benefits and to and Hardship in America. (Forthcom- fits and social services that are devel- all taxpayers. These policies, she says, ing) oped especially for the poor will be should “reinforce fundamental values” For other books noted in this article, successful. such as rewards for work, opportunities please see the Resources Section. for individual development and growth, Also see the interview with William Ju- Skocpol laments that these advo- and commitments to family and com- lius Wilson in Evaluation Forum (#5/6). cates for targeting give too little atten- munity responsibility for the socializa-

14 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Poor In America

tion and care of children and other vul- and welfare reform strategies that in- poor. As many poverty researchers nerable people. These policies, she be- clude a larger outlay for education, have contended, the failure of the pov- lieves, can create new opportunities for training and public service employ- erty rate to decrease after 1973, and to more targeted efforts within them. ment, Skocpol sees a universal system rise following 1978, was related to gen- She recommends a family security composed of elements such of these as eral income stagnation, the erosion of setting new norms for the poor that wages, the increase in the proportion of program available to all children and would be beneficial in the long run — families headed by single women, and working-age citizens. This program would include child support assurance i.e. that would “facilitate their moral re- the large decrease in real benefit levels integration into the mainstream of na- provided by states under AFDC which for all single custodial parents, parental tional life” — even though initially the could not be offset by Food Stamps, leave and child care assistance for all working families, job training and relo- poor might not receive the benefits and Medicaid and SSI. services they need as compared with cation assistance for displaced workers The author also quarrels with the middle class and near-poor. She and new entrants to the labor market, Skocpol’s assertion that the conserva- and universal health benefits. also proposes that universal policies tive backlash in the 1980s weakened would change the attitudes and behav- means-tested programs. The Reagan Some advocates of universal pro- ior of those more privileged, support- grams such as the one Skocpol propos- budget cuts reduced the benefit levels ing the redirection of political interest but the Congressional Budget Office es favor the inclusion of guaranteed groups toward advocacy for extending, reported that significant expansions in jobs at the minimum wage, as a last re- increasing and/or revising the benefits sort. But the author thinks this would Medicaid began in 1984, and other pro- of a universalistic approach, and specif- grams, such as Food Stamps, SSI, child stigmatize the system as a “lower-class ic targeting within it. nutrition programs, and free school make-work program”. Public funding to increase job creation in the private Greenstein’s Position lunches fared better than Skocpol im- plied. AFDC, it is true, was significant- sector, such as in infrastructure devel- Greenstein acknowledges that some ly affected by budget cuts, although opment, would be more politically ac- of Wilson’s and Skocpol’s arguments ceptable and less demeaning. The same moderate restorations were made in the “ring true.” Universalistic approaches late 1980s. Overall, the major entitle- would be true for further expansion of do engage stronger and broader constit- ment cuts since 1983 came from non- the Earned Income Tax Credit, which uencies, and they tend to be less stig- amounts to targeting-within-a-univer- means-tested programs — i.e. Medicare matizing of the poor. But he disagrees and other universal entitlements. Un- sal-system. Universal health insurance with some of Skocpol’s interpretations employment Insurance benefits, how- could be classified similarly. of the history of antipoverty efforts. ever, were never really restored. There- Unfortunately, Skocpol confesses, Medicaid, Supplemental Security In- fore, Greenstein wonders about the the present budget-cutting era is not come (SSI), Food Stamps, the Earned veracity of the position that there was a likely to befriend higher-cost universal Income Tax Credit and other major major conservative backlash against the programs. On the other hand, she is low-income-targeted programs have targeted programs of the 1960s and confident that Americans would accept been quite successful, he points out. He 1970s. taxes for such an approach if they per- directs us also to factors in addition to The author also faults Skocpol for ceived that it was clearly in their own whether a program is targeted or uni- her comparison of “politically robust self-interest. She suggests that new uni- versal that matter a great deal. The po- versalistic programs could be intro- litical strength of the approach, the de- universal programs” vs. “relatively fragile means-tested programs.” She is duced gradually, first on a modest gree to which programs are perceived comparing apples to oranges, he says, scale, based perhaps on a family securi- as providing an earned benefit or are ty payroll tax collected up to a higher otherwise linked to work, the extent to in pitting universal programs providing entitlements to targeted programs that wage base than current social security which they are federal entitlements, are not entitlements and must have taxes. New sources of revenue could be their evaluated effectiveness, and identified or created, which involve whether they are provided to employ- their specific funding levels determined each year. Low-income entitlements contributions from virtually all the pop- able people who do not work — all of generally bounded back from the Re- ulation. But she acknowledges that po- these influences affect the judgment of litical support is weak. Broad, active approaches. agan cuts. They proved to have endur- ing political strength. Low- income legislative alliances and lobby groups Joining many other social scientists, non-entitlements did not do so well. still prefer a targeting approach, and Greenstein disagrees with the notion conflict across their differing agendas The reductions were concentrated in that the programs of the 1960s and employment and training, housing and undercuts a universal strategy. 1970s failed to reduce poverty rates. community development, and programs In the meantime, the separate ingre- Many of these programs were designed providing social, legal and energy as- dients of a national policy are gaining to reduce poverty among the elderly, sistance. However, non-entitlement acceptance, she insists, exemplified by and they did so. They appeared also to programs serving a broader population the concept of universal health care, have changed the health status of the were cut seriously also.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 15 Features n The Poor In America

Greenstein has difficulty as well in health insurance credit for low to mod- cial Security is viewed as an entitle- accepting Skocpol’s comparison of the erate-income working families with ment and has been politically dura- political success of Social Security with children. The inclusion of the working ble, SSI has not been so viewed and the problems of targeted non-entitle- poor and low-earnings families and the is highly vulnerable to state poli- ment programs that are not focused on focus on health services were signifi- tics.) the elderly and are not considered cant elements increasing this targeted ‘earned’ benefits. It would be better, he programs’ public acceptability. n Programs providing cash benefits states, to compare the political strength The author comes to these conclu- appear to be more vulnerable than of a universal program for the elderly sions about the universal vs. targeted those providing politically-accept- (Social Security) with a means-tested program debate: able services. program for the elderly (SSI). SSI fared better than Social Security in the 1980s n In general, universal programs do n Entitlement programs fare better in terms of budget cuts. Greenstein have more success politically, but than means-tested programs. claims that Skocpol has not recognized targeting does not necessarily make n Programs found to be effective on that ‘success’ is easier to achieve a program politically unsustainable. the basis of evaluation research are through a check than through educa- n more acceptable politically. (WIC, tion, training or social services. It is The political vulnerability of target- likely that the public’s perception that ed programs applies mainly to cash Head Start and the Job Corps are ex- many Great Society service programs welfare programs for the non-elder- amples.) were ineffective in itself made them po- ly, non-disabled, and nonworking or What Greenstein intends with his litically weak and vulnerable. marginally working. analysis is to redirect our thinking Looking back at the patterns etched n Delivering benefits through the tax away from a simplistic debate over in applying universalistic vs. targeted system rather than through the wel- which approach is better strategically and toward a more informed investiga- strategies, Greenstein cites the lessons fare office significantly increases tion of the critical and more complex we may have learned: 1) a critical ele- programs’ political acceptability. ment is the public’s perception that a factors underlying political support for program is earned, whether it is uni- n If targeting is considered important, antipoverty strategies. However, he is versal or targeted (Social Security, a it is useful to avoid a narrow focus forced to conclude that although uni- universal program, is an example), and on the poorest individuals in society. versal strategies have the edge in terms of the factors he has examined, their 2) the nature of the services provided Including working families and low- sheer cost overrides these advantages. may be more important in generating income elderly and disabled, who political support than the service deliv- can be prevented from falling into In addition to the budget constraints ery strategy (the WIC program for poverty, can be important to its suc- imposed by the Gramm-Rudman-Holl- women, infants and children, a targeted cess. (The Food Stamp program is ings law, 1990 budget legislation re- program, is an example.) quired that any expansion of one en- an example.) The Family Assistance Plan, a uni- titlement program must be offset versalistic negative income tax strategy n Avoiding the targeting of a particu- through corresponding reductions in proposed under Nixon, was highly con- lar geographical segment or constit- another, or through tax increases. troversial, he points out, but the Earned uency of the country is also key to Therefore new universal programs will Income Tax Credit, a targeted tax credit success. (Focusing the low-income likely involve tax increases, particular- program, passed the Congress with lit- home energy assistance program on ly in the context of budgets such as the Clinton budget for 1994. This budget tle opposition. He explains the differ- the northern states, which was logi- seeks consistency with the new deficit ence in political support in terms of cal, was a factor in weakening its public interpretations: the EITC was reduction goals. Greenstein illustrates political support.) actually one form of a negative income the budget problem with the defeat of tax but it was presented and perceived n The federally-prescribed indexing of catastrophic health insurance legisla- not as an unearned welfare benefit but program benefits to inflation, as tion, which was introduced in a compa- as a benefit to low-income working compared with benefits whose levels rable fiscal environment. In 1994, families and as “an antidote for the sup- are set by the states, is also critical health care reform will likely pose a similar challenge. posed attractions of welfare.” The ex- to the political sustainability of a pansion of Medicaid in 1984 to addi- program. (SSI benefit levels rise But Greenstein does not regard the tional categories of individuals moved with increased inflation. In most of tax aspect of universal programs as pre- Medicaid closer to the EITC concept cluding universal policies. Clearly because it now included near-poor and the twenty-seven states providing SSI payments, state payment levels strategies such as parental leave, child poor working families and involved support enforcement and refundable have fallen far behind inflation over health services. The same political sup- child care tax credits can be mandated port extended to the new refundable the past fifteen years. Whereas So- without severe political side-effects.

16 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Poor In America

Yet an antipoverty policy that relies ex- health care or housing costs should not Greenstein, R. “Universal and Targeted clusively on universal programs would be allowed to drive these families back Approaches to Relieving Poverty: An leave most of the working poor with in- into poverty. He adds that within this Alternative View,” in The Urban Un- comes below the poverty line. Such a policy package there would need to be derclass. policy would not help those with limit- an array of highly-intensive services for For additional information on the uni- ed education and skills sufficiently, nor people with serious employment and versal vs. targeted program controver- would it adequately benefit many wel- economic barriers, since families may sy, please see: fare families. Consequently, his ulti- never get to the point where they can Danziger, S. and D. Weinberg. Fighting mate recommendation is to combine remain above poverty even with a set Poverty: What Works and What universal and targeted approaches. of universal earned entitlements. He Doesn’t. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1986. Universal health care and assured gives the redesign of JTPA as an exam- ple of an increasingly intensive pro- Levitan, S. and C. Johnson. Beyond child support, he says, could be com- gram targeted more specifically to disad- the Safety Net: Reviving the Promise bined with targeted approaches such as of Opportunity in America. Cam- 1) further expansion of the EITC, in- vantaged youth and those with the more severe employability problems. Green- bridge, MA: Ballinger, 1984. creased child care, and housing assis- stein is convinced that universal pro- Schorr, L. and D. Within Our Reach: tance for low- to-moderate-income Breaking the Cycle of Disadvantage. working families, and 2) increased grams, for all their political stability and other advantages, provide limited bene- Anchor Press, 1988. funding for Head Start, WIC, child- fits to the most seriously disadvantaged. hood immunization, prenatal health Weir, M., A. Orloff and T. Skocpol. The care, compensatory education for dis- Politics of Social Policy in the United States. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Uni- advantaged children, and other early- Editor’s Note versity Press, 1988. intervention programs that are consid- ered effective based on evaluations and This article is based on the following: which are gaining in political support. Skocpol, T. “Targeting Within Universal- The overriding goal of this combina- ism: Politically Viable Policies to Com- tion of strategies, he suggests, would be bat Poverty in the U.S.,” in The Urban to ensure that full- time, year-round Underclass, edited by C. Jencks and work can lift family income above the P. Peterson. Washington, D.C.: The poverty line. Excessive child care, Brookings Institution, 1991.

The Underclass Poor nn experts in the U.S. This article is a re- view, the underclass poor had only Inner-City Ghetto view of selected parts of the book, be- themselves to blame for their condition ginning with Wilson’s discussion of its in society. Poverty: A Re-Exami- content and significance. nation After almost two decades of inatten- Background tion to inner-city poverty by serious William Julius Wilson, an interna- academic social scientists, conservative Wilson sets the historical stage in tionally respected sociologist at the views, dramatic media coverage and this way: the controversy over Daniel University of Chicago who specializes rising crime in inner cities again drew in underclass poverty issues has written Patrick Moynihan’s report on the black public attention to American urban family in the late 1960s intimidated lib- extensively on the relationship between poverty. These forces encouraged re- eral scholars and led to a neglect of the socioeconomic factors and underclass searchers such as those contributing to status. His classic books, Power, Rac- problems of dislocation in the inner- Wilson’s book to study more systemati- city ghetto. Consequently a study of ism and Privilege in 1980 and The Tru- cally the complexities of ghetto pover- these problems was left to conservative ly Disadvantaged in 1987, profoundly ty. The general tone of this contempo- influenced our understanding of severe analysts. The result was a shift in per- rary research contrasts with the strong spective away from a focus on causes poverty and redirected policy efforts to conservative stress on individual at- within the social system to an emphasis ameliorate it. In 1993, Wilson edited tributes. It hones in on the structural another important book, The Ghetto on the character flaws of individuals cleavage that separates those living in and families entrenched in a welfare Underclass, which reflected work done ghettoes from other members of soci- subculture. Within the conservative by some of the most competent poverty ety, and on the limited opportunities

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 17 Features n The Underclass Poor

and other societal constraints that shape Kasarda’s findings rejected an earli- joblessness and less-than- adequate em- the quality of their lives. A major er thesis that it was race rather than ployment. Mercer Sullivan, a senior re- theme is the effect of the dramatic rise space that determined differences in search associate at Vera Institute of in inner-city joblessness and increased black-white employment rates. His Justice in New York City has been con- social and economic isolation. studies showed that blacks with less cerned, as has Wilson, about the heavy than a high school education in the sub- conservative emphasis on causal theo- Lawrence Mead, a member of the urbs around central cities experienced ries focusing on flaws in the underclass political science faculty at New York University and a contributor to Wil- substantially lower unemployment than individual. Although his research con- blacks within the central city, and that firms the significant relationship be- son’s book, argues that work opportu- this disparity has widened since 1969. tween a lack of education, appropriate nities are widely available and there- fore one cannot blame inner-city Compared with less-educated whites, employment opportunities and under- comparable blacks must sustain consid- class poverty, he feels too much atten- joblessness on limited access to em- erably longer commuting distances in tion may have been given to macro- ployment. He maintains that it is incon- sistent work — intermittent, part-time, reaching suburban jobs and are highly economic structural causes, which dependent on access to a private car to could lead us to ignore the importance less than year-round work — that is a reach them. of cultural factors. We could downplay major explanation for high inner city poverty and jobless rates. Wilson says ghetto residents’ “unique collective re- Joblessness and Employment: sponses or adaptations to economic dis- Mead makes the unwarranted assump- Further Evidence advantage, prejudice and the problems tion that there is a “disinclination . . . both to accept and retain available low- The research conducted by other of raising a family and socializing chil- dren under ghetto conditions.” His re- wage jobs because ghetto residents do contributors to The Ghetto Underclass search therefore looks not only at job- not consider menial work fair or oblig- supported Kasarda’s findings. There is atory.” mounting evidence, Wilson claims, that lessness but at the relationship between a strong relationship does exist be- the structural constraints in the political What the Accumulating Evidence tween increasing joblessness and limit- economy and the individual and collec- Tells Us ed employment prospects in the inner tive cultural choices and strategies that are selected within ghetto communities. John Kasarda, another contributor to city. Marta Tienda’s research on the in- ner city Puerto Rican experience reach- Wilson’s book, rejects Mead’s assump- Sullivan found a strong relationship es similar conclusions. A sociologist at tion out of hand. Chairman of the Uni- between the poverty of female-headed versity of North Carolina sociology de- the University of Chicago and associate households and a general lack of ade- director of the Population Research partment and director of the Univer- quate employment. His findings sug- Center, Tienda found that Puerto sity’s Center for Competitiveness and gested that some of the effects of struc- Employment Growth, Kasarda exam- Ricans have experienced a sharp de- tural economic barriers could be cline since 1970 in jobs they tradition- ined data from the Census on urban in- reduced by traditional ethnic values. ally held, and an overall decline in jobs dustrial transition. His analysis showed He feels, as do some other researchers, that although employment increased in associated with industrial restructuring there is likely to be a difference be- in areas where they were concentrated every occupational classification in the tween lone individuals being exposed in central cities. suburban areas surrounding selected to employment problems of this kind, northern cities, blue-collar, clerical Some analysts have attributed de- and individuals influenced by the reac- and sales jobs declined sharply in cen- clines in jobs for blacks and other mi- tions of groups of similarly affected in- tral cities between 1970 and 1980 de- norities to immigration patterns and re- dividuals. The issue is whether a ghetto spite substantial growth in managerial, lated increased competition for low- resident is reacting to two interwoven professional and higher-level technical wage jobs. Research conducted by forces: individual effects and collective and administrative support positions. Robert Reischauer, a poverty specialist (cultural) effects. One outcome of such and director of the Congressional Bud- double jeopardy, Wilson suggests, is These changes, he found, led to pre- get Office, revealed no evidence that social isolation, a lack of contact and cipitous declines in jobs filled by per- exposure to one another between sons with poor education, and rapid in- this was so. No negative effects were detected on unemployment, wages or groups with different class and/or racial creases in jobs filled by those with earnings. However, he recommends characteristics and experiences, which some level of college training. The tends to enhance the effects of living in change impacted the black urban labor further research on this issue, looking at internal migration, working condi- an area of highly concentrated poverty. force disproportionately, since urban tions, labor force participation and blacks were overrepresented among Oscar Lewis’s “Culture of fringe benefits. those with less than a high school edu- Poverty” Theory cation. A high school degree had by Other Effects of Joblessness this time become the minimum stan- Wilson is quick to correct any im- dard for black entry into the labor Some of the contributors to Wil- pression that he and Sullivan are refer- ring to the ‘culture of poverty’ perspec- force. son’s book have studied correlates of

18 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Underclass Poor

tive put forward by conservative ana- dren, and the high tolerance for psy- These findings suggest that the mar- lysts of the 1980s. The kind of socio- chological and cultural pathology in the riage decisions of inner-city couples cultural isolation they suggest can de- ghetto, are products of cultural trans- were influenced by current economic velop in the ghetto does not imply that mission. Beyond that, he feels it would realities and by their perception of the kinds of ghetto attitudes and prac- be very difficult to think that unem- long-term economic opportunities. tices that are frequently criticized by ployment, underemployment, low in- Research by Sara McLanahan and Americans ‘take on a life of their own’ come, a persistent shortage of cash, and Irwin Garfinkel of the Institute for Re- and persist beyond improvements in crowded living conditions are due to search on Poverty at the University of economic opportunity. Wilson sees cultural learning. His position is that Wisconsin supported the view that the them as amenable to change with great- Lewis failed to draw a critical distinc- rise in male joblessness is a major fac- er efforts to resolve structural economic tion between causes and symptoms — tor in the growth of single-parent fami- inequalities. i.e. what matters in terms of objective lies headed by women. It also suggest- poverty (poverty that is the result of The term ‘culture of poverty’ origi- ed that the receipt of welfare by single nated with Lewis’ chapter in On Un- structural constraints outside the con- mothers with weak labor force attach- trol of the individual) vs.what matters derstanding Poverty: Perspectives from ment contributed to the growth in this in terms of the way people learn to the Social Sciences edited by Daniel ghetto subpopulation, because AFDC Patrick Moynihan in 1968. Lewis pro- cope with objective poverty. and other means-tested programs re- posed that there was a cluster of cultur- Elijah Anderson, a sociologist at the duced the likelihood of marriage. This al traits that emerged in poverty areas University of Pennsylvania and associ- effect, they reported, increased mother- in non-welfare-state capitalist societies ate director of its Center for Urban Eth- only family configurations and weak- that was highly individualistic and nography, focused his research on the ened these women’s labor force partici- class-stratified. These traits were a sex codes of black inner-city youth, pation, thus producing a vicious circle. product, he said, of these conditions: which provides insights about cultural Although the researchers found only a issues. He found that young black men weak relationship between welfare re- n A sizable unskilled poorly-paid la- in the inner city faced very limited job ceipt and the growth in mother-only bor force. prospects and could not readily assume families, in general they estimated that n High rates of unemployment and un- the roles of breadwinner and reliable between 20% and 30% of the growth in deremployment. husband, roles expected of men in the mother-only families among the lower larger society. Therefore they bonded half of the income distribution was re- n Few organizations to protect the in- with their same-sex peers and retreated lated to the overall increase in AFDC terest of the poor. from enduring relationships with girl- and related benefits between 1955 and n Advantaged classes that value up- friends. In this milieu they affirmed 1975. their manhood through peer group in- ward mobility and the accumulation Wilson insists that it is very difficult teraction, through demonstrating that to sort out the effects of welfare receipt of wealth, and who relate poverty to they have casual sex with many wom- vs. the effects of ghetto joblessness individual inferiority. en, and have been successful in getting since 1965 (and particularly since These conditions purportedly shaped one or more of them to have their baby. 1970) on family configuration and la- Casual sex in the ghetto is not goal-less the attitudes and behavior of the poor bor force attachment. He feels that activity. It has significance in terms of into a particular design for living that McLanahan and Garfinkel fail to ad- became institutionalized and passed adolescent socialization needs, and its dress the complexity of relationships context is the inability of black youth from generation to generation. The as- among joblessness, family formation to fulfill mainstream male roles. sumption that an economically-driven and welfare. A different mix of con- subculture was being crystallized and straints and opportunities face ghetto transmitted intergenerationally led Ghetto Poverty, Single Mothers and Welfare blacks, for instance, than face residents Lewis to conclude that ghetto children of areas of low poverty — the mix is were doomed from the start — they Research conducted as part of the different in terms of the class structure, were made less capable of taking ad- University of Chicago’s Urban Poverty the availability of jobs, access to eco- vantage of economic opportunities and Family Structure Project yielded nomic and financial capital, the con- even if and when these presented them- evidence that male joblessness was an centration of poverty, and what he selves. important influence on never-married terms “social” capital. Therefore ghetto parenthood trends in urban ghettos. single mothers have far less hope that Single-Parenthood Employed fathers across all ethnic they will be “welfare-free” within a In Soulside: Inquiries into Ghetto groups were two and one-half times reasonably short time and they are far Culture and Community, Ulz Hannerz more likely than non-employed fathers more likely to need welfare for more suggests that it is certainly possible, to marry the mother of their first child. than five years than single mothers in though highly debatable, that ghetto fa- High school graduates were more likely low-poverty areas. And those unable to thers’ desertion of mothers and chil- to marry than high school drop-outs.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 19 Features n The Underclass Poor

Texas cities with significant declines It is the cumulative structural entrapment and in Hispanic ghetto poverty and forcible socioeconomic marginalization resulting from southern cities with sharp decreases the historically evolving interplay of class, in black ghetto poverty. racial, and gender domination, together with sea n Between 1970 and 1986, the North- changes in the organization of American east and Midwest experienced sub- capitalism and failed urban and social stantial economic restructuring and a loss of blue-collar jobs. Informa- policies, not a ‘welfare ethos’, that explain tion-processing industries in the the plight of today’s ghetto blacks. Northeast and Midwest could not William Julius Wilson compensate for losses in traditional industrial sectors. Southern cities in The Ghetto Underclass experienced job growth in all the major sectors of the economy. obtain adequate employment in low- ban blacks cannot readily follow these n Blacks living in central cities contin- poverty areas have access to more so- low-skilled jobs. As a result they have ue to lack education and access to cial and economic supports. Wilson become increasingly isolated from the employment, and the decline in the thinks the most critical influence in the sources of employment that can be ob- earnings of central city blacks is mix of constraints and possibilities is tained within their level of education. positively associated with the extent employment opportunities. of job decentralization. The Newest Research on Inner- The Importance of Employment City Poverty n During the 1950s and 1960s better- educated blacks migrated to the sub- John Kasarda’s research provides The research that formed the basis the most useful insights about the role for Wilson’s edited book covered stud- urbs where access to employment of labor force attachment in the growth ies through 1988. In The Ghetto Under- was better. In the 1970s this out-mi- of underclass poverty. He found that class, however, Wilson reviews and gration increased, leading to a larg- the loss of traditional employment op- comments on research since 1988 that er disparity in education and income portunities had a devastating impact on has tested many of the ideas advanced between better-educated minorities black families, particularly those with a in Wilson’s The Truly Disadvantaged. and the ghetto poor. low level of education, which in turn This research focuses on the economy, increased the problems of the economi- on weak labor force participation, on n Industrial restructuring appeared to cally displaced. Jobless rates will re- the inner-city neighborhood environ- increase job opportunities in public main high in the urban underclass, ment, and on theories about the under- administration and professional ser- Kasarda predicts, if a greater propor- class. vices for educated minorities while tion of disadvantaged black youths do The following findings from re- vastly reducing employment options not obtain the formal education re- search in the late 1980s and early 1990s for those with inadequate education. quired by the white-collar service in- contribute to our understanding of n Although jobless rates for disadvan- dustries that are the predominant sourc- ghetto poverty: es of urban employment. Upgrading taged minority youth remain high, educational levels is essential also, giv- n The primary groups within the ghet- dramatic progress occurred during en potential future shortages of resident to poor are blacks (65%) and His- the economic recovery of the late city labor with adequate educational panics (22%). 1980s in cities with the tightest la- qualifications for expanding white-col- bor markets (i.e. those with the most n The largest increases in ghetto pov- lar jobs. The problem, says Kasarda, is job openings). Tight labor markets erty have occurred in the Northeast that these qualifications are difficult to were found to reduce poverty, even and Midwest. Ten cities accounted obtain through short-term job training though they did not affect the num- for three-fourths of the total increase programs. ber of single-parent families. during the 1970s. New York City Since all of the net national growth n In studies of the relationship be- in jobs with low educational require- accounted for one-third; New York ments has occurred in suburbs and non- City and Chicago together account- tween marriage and employment, metropolitan areas that are far removed ed for one-half. Of the 195 Standard most researchers found only modest from large concentrations of poorly - Metropolitan Areas in 1970 that re- support for the theory that the sharp educated minorities, resolving the corded some ghetto poverty, 88 ex- rise in poor single-parent families problem of inner-city joblessness is a perienced decreases by 1980. The was related to the declining employ- genuine challenge. Disadvantaged ur- cities with the largest decreases were ment status of young black men.

20 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Underclass Poor

Surveys showed that changes in High rates of black out-migration match their education and skill levels: employment explained less than from ghettos related to income were n Development of a computerized job one-fourth of the decline in marriage higher in the more segregated cen- opportunity network. rates since 1960. A study by the tral cities. But they also found that University of Chicago found that the white exodus from the poorest n Strong, aggressive job search assis- black inner city men who had stable areas in the more segregated cities tance. work were more than twice as likely was even higher than that of blacks, n Temporary relocation assistance. to marry as black men who were and more positively related to in- n Housing vouchers. jobless. This was not simply due to come. The presumption was that high- the proportion of jobless men. er-income blacks in the more segre- n Stricter enforcement of fair hiring gated cities had fewer non-ghetto and fair housing laws. As legitimacy norms weakened in neighborhoods accessible to them and society, marriage rates dropped pre- n A review of public assistance pro- therefore were more likely to remain cipitously among chronically jobless grams to determine whether they living among the poor. men. Minority ghetto residents, par- tend to keep the poor from migrat- ticularly black men, were experienc- n Social environments with limited le- ing out of ghetto areas. ing rising employer discrimination. gitimate job opportunities, inade- This was based less on race and quate job networks, poor schools Other Recommendations class than on employer perceptions and few identifiable alternative op- For the problems of inner-city of their likely education, coopera- tions for generating income perpetu- males, the researchers suggest pregnan- tiveness and productivity. In tight la- ate weak labor market attachment. cy-prevention programs that involve and provide services to males, more bor markets, Wilson points out, gen- Poor people who live in neighbor- eral unemployment is reduced, imaginative child support enforcement, hoods that promote or reinforce and the provision of comprehensive, in- better jobs are available, and wages weak labor force attachment are ex- are higher. Therefore employers can tensive services to inner-city children posed to quite different forces than and adolescents. McLanahan and afford to be more selective and the those in areas that foster or support Garfinkel advocate for more universal level of discrimination rises. strong labor force participation. For programs, including full employment, n Some recent studies question the example, several studies suggested child care, child support assurance, and theory that the out-migration of bet- that a young ghetto woman’s prox- children’s allowances. Regarding the ter-educated and higher-wage resi- imity to and degree of integration homeless, more generous programs for dents from ghetto neighborhoods is with peer groups that did not sup- income maintenance are recommended, responsible for higher concentra- port strong labor force participation as well as the expansion of disability programs and low-cost housing, and tions of severely poor in central cit- were more likely to become preg- more low-skilled jobs. ies. A University of Chicago study nant. found no evidence that the level of Other authors recommend less or- n The concentration of the very poor out-migration explained the rising thodox policy solutions, such as “open- in public housing projects appears concentration of black poverty in ing up the opportunity structure to all, to increase their cultural isolation, regardless of race, class or gender.” ghettos. The conclusion was that and weaken their labor force attach- Some have little faith in income main- higher-income blacks have been less ment. tenance, work/welfare or social service able to leave ghettos than have programs since they have not altered higher-income members of other Policy Recommendations structural economic problems. The lat- groups. Nevertheless most other ter researchers want to see a wide range studies supported Wilson’s out-mi- Admittedly, the research reported in of activities aimed at changing atti- Wilson’s book is selective, but it clear- gration thesis. tudes, expectations, skills and life expe- ly represents some of the better con- riences. This involves employment for Wilson gives special attention to a temporary research on urban poverty. inner-city youth, the reform of public Therefore one is eager to learn what U.S. Housing and Urban Develop- schools, an improved school-to-work policy recommendations Wilson sees ment study which he claims is the transition, the reduction of racial and most important recent research on flowing from these studies. gender discrimination, a removal of segregation and its geographic Kasarda’s Recommendations barriers between jobs in primary and spread. The researchers found that secondary labor markets, a reduction in all households in the 1980s had high Kasarda suggested a series of prag- teen-age pregnancy and births, and rates of out-migration related to in- matic steps which he feels can reduce more control over industrial relocation the poor’s distance from jobs that come. and plant closings. This large package of strategies represents an expansive,

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 21 Features n The Underclass Poor

long-term commitment to reducing pov- tics of change difficult. He encourages Policy. University of Chicago Press, erty. The proponents acknowledge, researchers and policymakers to evalu- 1987. however, that this kind of approach is ate new programs and strategies aimed “Public Policy Research and the Truly politically vulnerable unless made part at promoting institutional change. Part of Disadvantaged,” in The Urban Un- of a larger effort to assure economic se- that effort might be to reach a new liber- derclass edited by C. Jencks and P. curity for all citizens. al/conservative consensus on welfare re- Peterson. Washington, DC: The form. Wilson is not as sure as Nathan that Brookings Institution, 1991. In sharp contrast, Lawrence Mead recommends mandatory workfare. Wil- comprehensive policies are likely to take With L. Wacquant: “Poverty, Jobless- a long time to implement, pointing hope- ness, and Social Transformation of son says this strategy is based on the er- fully to the New Deal, the civil rights the Inner City,” in Welfare Policy for roneous assumption that public assis- movement, and the Great Society. the 1990s edited by P. Cottingham tance recipients are encouraged to be and D. Ellwood. Cambridge, MA: dependent “by a mysterious welfare Harvard University Press, 1989. ethos.” Wilson says there is no evi- Editor’s Note With K. Neckerman: “Poverty and Fami- dence from research to support this. ly Structure: The Widening Gap Be- Somewhere between comprehensive For a more detailed understanding tween Evidence and Public Policy Is- and single-strategy approaches is Rich- of Wilson’s perspectives on underclass sues,” in Fighting Poverty: What ard Nathan’s recommendation. A Prin- poverty, please see the extensive inter- Works and What Doesn’t edited by view with William Julius Wilson in Issue S. Danziger and D. Weinberg. Cam- ceton faculty member, Nathan says we #5/6 of Evaluation Forum, and his other bridge, MA: Harvard University must concentrate on studying the insti- publications, such as: Press, 1986. tutional dimension of needed policy changes, since the structure of Ameri- Power, Racism and Privilege: The De- clining Significance of Race. Chica- can federalism and the central role of go, IL: University of Chicago Press, state governments in administering so- 1980. cial service programs means that change is likely to be slow and the poli- The Truly Disadvantaged: The Inner City, The Underclass, and Public

The Welfare System Poor nn and its Jobs Opportunities and Basic when the Omnibus Reconciliation Act Contemporary Work/ Skills Program (JOBS). The passion for (OBRA) permitted states to apply for Welfare Strategies: a better linkage between welfare and waivers in order to design alternatives The First Generation work came on the heels of the unprece- to WIN. dented participation of women in the The original WIN concept involved labor force across class, economic and The renewed interest in welfare re- intensive education, training and em- ethnic lines, and the rise in welfare form in the 1990s has been expressed ployment assistance. In 1971, WIN was in enthusiasm for an education, train- caseloads. redesigned with an emphasis on short- ing and work strategy. Some of the Pre-History term job search and placement assis- most vocal critics of the welfare system tance. WIN was mandatory for families have argued that the missing link in re- However, many of the contemporary with children six and older who were forming the welfare system has been a proponents of work/welfare bonding receiving AFDC; others could partici- strong tie-in between cash benefits and have behaved as if the work/welfare pate as volunteers. A formal sanction- the enhancement of the recipient’s em- models of the 1980s represented entire- ing process was incorporated. Its joint- ployability and his or her earnings in ly new concepts. The Work Incentive agency funding and administrative unsubsidized employment. Bipartisan Program (WIN) had long been forgot- structure (involving welfare agencies support grew over the 1980s for a ten. Begun in the late 1960s under joint and employment agencies at the state strong work preparation and job acqui- funding from the U.S. Health, Educa- level) was both a blessing and a curse, sition component bonded to income tion and Welfare Department and the an unsteady marriage between social maintenance. This was reflected force- Department of Labor, WIN had been caseworkers and employment counse- fully in the Family Support Act of 1988 operational across the U.S. until 1981 lors loyal to their own organizational

22 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Welfare System Poor

territories. Where these counselors istration, the Congress, and the public ployment, or make an effort to increase were co-located and their supervisors had begun to trust the veracity of small their employability. cooperative, WIN often provided the social experiments as a way to deter- The latter approach, Gueron claims, best of both service provision worlds: mine program effectiveness. Program permeated political decisions about the expertise of professionals trained in managers and planners had begun to welfare reform in the 1980s. However, case management and supportive ser- trust evaluation research, particularly if consensus on a precise strategy to oper- vices, and those trained in job search, done at the state level, as a meaningful ationalize this ‘social contract’ eluded job development and job placement. source of information for fine-tuning welfare policymakers. According to The job search workshop concept grew and remodeling their programs. Gueron, there were two main schools out of this marriage. Learning from Evaluation of thought. One stressed the client’s re- But WIN’s participation rates were Efforts sponsibilities by utilizing low-cost job very low, and its coverage and services search assistance and job placement. waned over time. Evaluations of WIN In this article we review a 1988 arti- The other stressed the provision of edu- were non-experimental and produced cle by Judith Gueron, “State Welfare cation and skills training to increase interesting but questionable results. Employment Initiatives: Lessons for employability, thereby increasing ac- What the research suggested, with the 1980s,” published in Focus, the cess to higher-paid jobs. The first em- great consistency, however, was that journal of the Institute for Research on phasized dependency-prevention; the the most disadvantaged clients benefit- Poverty at the University of Wisconsin. other poverty-reduction. The two ap- ed the most from WIN services. Similar Gueron is president of the Manpower proaches essentially expressed different conclusions flowed from evaluations of Demonstration Corporation, which has views of the intensity of the poor’s work the Comprehensive Employment and been a major contemporary source of ethic. Training Act (CETA) program, which evaluations of work/welfare and job also served a small proportion of wel- training programs. Early Research fare clients. In the Focus article Gueron identi- Studies of the more punitive ‘work- The Reagan and Bush budgets con- fies our major welfare dilemma as the fare’ options suggested that they did tinually eliminated WIN, but the Con- attempt to reconcile two competing is- not work. In the context of this conclu- gress stubbornly reinstated it each year sues: sion, Gueron cites contrasting results from the evaluation of the intensive even though the funding fell precipi- n The provision of support and assis- tously. With the advent of OBRA, WIN National Supported Work Demonstra- tance to those poor who clearly can- became almost moot. OBRA was a new tion financed by The Ford Foundation. opportunity for states to gain control not or should not be expected to Researchers found this model involving over their own work/welfare programs, achieve economic security through highly-structured paid work experience even though funding was cut in the bar- employment. to be capable of producing long-term gain. The alternatives states could ini- n The need for government to encour- positive effects for the more disadvan- tiate were the children of state welfare age the poor to seek self-sufficiency taged welfare clients, and to be cost-ef- fective for taxpayers even though sus- agencies exclusively. Most states’ pro- through work. grams made heavy use of the Employ- taining high start-up costs. At the same ment Service and JTPA for job search, AFDC has been in the center of this time, low-cost job search assistance al- placement and training, but the U.S. maelstrom, she says, particularly as ternatives also proved to have durable DOL was no longer an equal partner more non-poor women entered the la- benefits, and for a wide range of recipi- serving welfare clients. The U.S. De- bor force. Government has tried vari- ents. Again the positive effects were partment of Health and Human Servic- ous strategies to resolve this dilemma greater for the most disadvantaged. es (HHS) and state welfare agencies re- since the 1960s. Although we had learned something ceived the funding for new state One major approach was the incor- about targeting and service provision options directly, and HHS was the poration of financial incentives for from research on these early work/wel- source of guidance in the rigorous eval- working within AFDC. Gueron reports fare efforts, Gueron comments that uation of these state initiatives. that the research on this approach sug- warring political ideologies continued It was the experimental evaluations gested it was too costly and complex, to result in different kinds of welfare of these new state alternatives to WIN and appeared to increase caseloads. The strategies. The Carter Administration — this first generation of contempo- other most important approach was to moved toward paid public employment rary work/welfare strategies — that redefine the relationship between gov- as a last resort option while the Reagan provided the most reliable and valid in- ernment and the client. Welfare was to Administration wanted universal un- formation for policy purposes. The re- leave behind its aura of “income-condi- paid workfare. OBRA rejected both. sults had a direct influence on the de- tioned entitlement” to become a “recip- Gueron explained that OBRA in effect velopment of JOBS, whereas earlier rocal obligation.” Beneficiaries would converted WIN into a block grant to studies had played a low-key policy risk losing the government’s services state welfare agencies, which gave role in the welfare debate. The Admin- and supports if they did not seek em- them less dollars but more flexibility to

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 23 Features n The Welfare System Poor

experiment. The experimentation clear- ly needed to be evaluated, which led to It was the experimental evaluations of state the most carefully designed and imple- alternatives to the Work Incentive Program mented evaluation research on work/ welfare programs in American history. that provided the most reliable and valid information for policy purposes. The results Research Caveats had a direct influence on the development of JOBS. Gueron calls our attention to impor- The Administration, the Congress and tant parameters surrounding this land- the public had begun to trust the veracity of mark research: small social experiments as a way to determine n State programs were developed and program effectiveness. Program managers implemented with limited funds. Funds for work/welfare programs and planners had begun to trust fell 70% between 1981 and 1987. evaluation research. n Programs were operated in commu- nities in which there was an array of institutions and organizations pro- generally representative. The evalua- clubs. Work experience was empha- viding some kind of work/welfare tion of each state’s work/welfare model sized less, and education and training services. For example, the Employ- utilized an experimental research de- even less than work experience. The ment Service, JTPA, community- sign involving the random assignment state providing education and training based organizations and community of clients to 1) a group receiving the to the most clients only provided these new program’s services and assistance, treatments to 17% of the experimental and technical colleges were provid- and 2) a group from which this pro- group. As in WIN, the overriding goals ing various services to welfare cli- gram was withheld. In all cases, the of these programs was immediate em- ents. Therefore research on new al- new alternatives tested represented re- ployment. It is intriguing that surveys ternatives could only estimate the designs of a state’s WIN program. of staff and clients revealed that work/ impact of adding a new program, welfare requirements were not viewed not the cumulative effects of a cli- Program Design as punitive even though the work expe- ent’s potential exposure to a number Gueron pointed out how the WIN rience positions were entry-level and of service providers. redesigns varied, reflecting different re- provided little or no skills develop- ment. n Research findings regarding the out- source constraints, political perspec- tives, and state/local values. In particu- comes of different kinds of pro- Because these state initiatives in the lar, they differed along these first half of the 1980s clearly involved grams, such as average costs and dimensions: only incremental changes, Gueron ap- impacts per participant, were fre- n Participation requirements vis-a-vis propriately comments that the lessons quently based on different measures. from the evaluations of these experi- different segments of the AFDC ca- Therefore it was difficult to draw ments cannot tell us what the effects seload. conclusions about effects across may be of more comprehensive and in- program alternatives. n Job search requirements. tensive strategies. A second wave of in- itiatives in the latter half of the 1980s The Work/Welfare Initiatives n Type of job search assistance pro- are providing insights about more Project vided, and at what point in the ser- structured models. vice delivery chronology. With these caveats in mind, Gueron Research Results gives due credit to the U.S. General n Whether education and training was Accounting Office and the Urban Insti- offered, in addition to job search. But Gueron does not discount the tute for their research in the 1980s — insights from this large national dem- but she suggests that MDRC’s multi- n Whether unpaid work experience onstration. These are some of the key state field research carried out between was an option. results: 1982 and 1988, State Work/Welfare In- n Whether noncompliance resulted in n The programs in several states in- itiatives, provided the most definitive sanctions, and what kind. creased quarterly employment rates lessons about program participation, impacts and net costs. Funded by The It is important to note that the major by between 3% and 8%. They pro- Ford Foundation and the states partici- ‘treatment’ in the states participating in duced cumulative earnings gains pating in the project, this demonstration the project was job search assistance over the one-to-three-year period of involved a geographic sample that was — often provided through low-cost job between 8% and 27%. On average,

24 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Welfare System Poor

across total earnings per experimen- Research Questions Left hensive work/welfare systems, Gueron tal participant (including non-earn- Unanswered nevertheless looks to ‘second genera- tion’ work/welfare initiatives such as ers as well as earners) the earnings In Gueron’s mind, however, the re- California’s Greater Avenues for Inde- gain was 23%, and gains held up af- sults of the State Work/Welfare Initia- ter the first year. tives Project raised significant issues pendence (GAIN), Employment and Training Choices (ET) in Massachu- and questions for further study in the n The Baltimore program, which pro- setts, and New Jersey’s Realizing Eco- following areas: vided the highest level of education nomic Achievement (REACH) as the and training, improved job quality Issues kind of comprehensive, case-managed (wages and hours worked) as well as and intensive models requiring careful n Coverage of the AFDC population: job acquisition and retention. study in the 1990s. the work/welfare programs studied n The programs that produced earn- by MDRC were targeted to approxi- Second Generation Work/Welfare ings gains also produced some level mately one-third of the AFDC case- Programs of welfare savings, although a small- load — i.e. that segment that had Welfare policies in the 1960s, er amount of savings than the been mandatory for WIN. Gueron says, stressed the ‘entitlement’ amount of earnings gains — i.e. aspect of government social welfare, a n Intensity of participation: participa- there was no net welfare reduction. view that tended to adopt the philo- tion obligations were of short dura- sophical underpinnings of European n The most employable participants tion and non-intensive. welfare states. More conservative per- (women who had worked prior to spectives in the 1980s stressed reci- program participation) did not gain Questions procity in terms of responsibility be- much from participation. Although n Should work requirements be ex- tween government and client. The women with limited work history tended to women with younger chil- intent of the Family Support Act and stayed on welfare longer than the dren? JOBS in 1988 was to codify this kind more employable women, they had of contract. In the next article we ex- more substantial earnings gains than n Is the mandatory aspect more impor- plore the JOBS concept further. women who had worked previously. tant than the kinds of services pro- vided? n Programs requiring unpaid work ex- Editor’s Note perience did not lead to increased n Would the gains from low-cost pro- employment and earnings. Gueron grams hold if a larger proportion of For those interested in the other re- suggests that this may have been re- the caseload were to be served? search referred to in this article, please see: lated to aspects of program imple- n Are the jobs clients obtain sufficient mentation rather than to the ‘treat- Hollister, R. et al. The National Sup- in wages and hours worked to lift ported Work Demonstration. Madi- ment’ per se, or to socio-economic their families out of the welfare sys- son, WI: University of Wisconsin influences in program environments. tem? Press, 1984. n Overall, over two to five years, gov- One obvious unanswered question Gueron, J. Reforming Welfare with ernment outlays for these programs was whether more costly, high-cover- Work. New York, NY: The Ford Foundation, 1987. were offset by welfare savings. age, comprehensive and intensive pro- grams would be more successful. Nightingale, D. and L. Burbridge. The Gueron concludes that these rela- Gueron considers this a critical query Status of Work/Welfare Programs in tively low-cost work/welfare strategies in terms of whether government should 1986: Implications for Welfare Re- could lead to “consistent and measur- form. Washington, D.C.: The Urban extend low-cost strategies to a larger able increases in income that persist Institute, 1987. proportion of the welfare population or over a substantial period of time.” But should provide more intensive services U.S. General Accounting Office. Work she cautions that these strategies should and Welfare: Current AFDC Work to the most disadvantaged segment. be viewed as only one part of a larger Programs and Their Implications for Not optimistic about government’s anti-poverty approach. Federal Policy. Washington, D.C., ability to subsidize universal compre- 1987.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 25 Features n The Welfare System Poor nn Second Generation od, high school drop-outs and teen- n Providing low-cost services to some age parents. clients and the more intensive ser- Work/Welfare vices to others, a process that in- n The judgment of goal achievement volves planning. Strategies via federal performance standards, as in JTPA. Gueron and Pauly view the third op- In this companion article to First tion as the one most consistent with the Generation strategies, we review From JOBS was to be better funded, tar- Family Support Act and JOBS model, Welfare to Work by Judith Gueron and geted and evaluated than any previous but one that requires states to establish Edward Pauly, a 1991 Russell Sage work/welfare initiative. The U.S. De- a solid basis for making effective tar- Foundation publication. In this classic partment of Health and Human Servic- geting decisions. These decisions in- on work/welfare alternatives, the au- es followed through on the latter with volve significant trade-offs in achiev- thors suggest several influences that an eight-year research contract with the ing JOBS’ major goals: skills enhance- shaped the current federal Job Opportu- Manpower Demonstration Research ment, earnings increases and reduced nities and Basic Skills Program (JOBS) Corporation. welfare costs. whose state-level strategies constitute a second generation of work/welfare ini- State JOBS Models In the book, the authors summarize tiatives: Developing the content of From the characteristics, costs and net effects of thirteen pre-JOBS programs and fol- n States had demonstrated with their Welfare to Work was MDRC’s first re- low this overview with detailed infor- alternatives under the Omnibus Bud- sponsibility under their research con- tract to study JOBS. More extensively mation intended to assist states in de- get Reconciliation Act in the early signing and modifying their JOBS than in Gueron’s article reviewed pre- 1980s that they were capable of de- programs. Program profiles included signing and implementing programs viously, Gueron and Pauly provide both an overview and a detailed sum- WIN demonstrations in the 1970s, responsive to state priorities and re- Community Work Experience Pro- mary of contemporary research on grams (CWEP) in the early 1980s, and spectful of state resources. work/welfare strategies and their con- more complex programs such as the re- n tribution to the knowledge base. Then Evaluations of some of these pro- cent San Diego Saturation Work Initia- they turn to JOBS. grams indicated that a range of ap- tive Model (SWIM), the Baltimore Op- proaches and environments were ca- The early experience with JOBS tions Program, and the National Sup- pable of benefiting welfare clients suggested to the authors that state pro- ported Work Demonstration. and producing net savings for the grams were more complex than those welfare system. mounted in the early 1980s, which em- Major Findings from Evaluations phasized job search. Consistent with of the Programs Reviewed n Research on welfare dynamics the national JOBS model, many state The main findings from state work/ showed that a substantial minority programs were giving primary attention welfare evaluations completed prior to of welfare poor remained in the wel- to important aspects of program imple- JOBS are summarized in Figure 1. fare system for long periods. mentation, such as career counseling, client assessment, service planning, the Congress was also influenced by re- Some Conclusions from the use of case management systems, and search findings indicating that partici- Research the systematic referral of clients to pation in these programs was limited JTPA and other providers of work Based on these and other findings, and their employment and earnings ef- preparation services. Budget con- Gueron and Pauly came to these con- fects incremental. As a result, JOBS in- straints, however, were preventing clusions: volved these elements: many states from fully implementing n In targeting different service strate- n Increased funding. the model — particularly with respect gies to different subpopulations of to covering all mandatory clients and n clients, states must decide which An expansion of coverage to fami- providing comprehensive services. lies with children three and older. program goals are of primary impor- Because of fiscal problems, the au- tance for each subpopulation — par- n The retention of state flexibility in thors claim that states were faced with ticularly whether the major goal is program design and operation. choosing among these options: gain in earnings or short-term wel- n An emphasis on assessment, educa- n Providing low-cost services (job fare savings. tion, intensive job search and place- search) to a large portion of the n Future evaluations, in particular and ment, and transitional services at- mandatory caseload. most immediately the evaluation of tached to work. n Targeting higher-cost implementa- JOBS, should address the issue of n A focus on recipients likely to re- tion features and services to particu- which goal is the more important to main in the system over a long peri- lar subgroups of clients. pursue: human capital development

26 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Welfare System Poor

Figure 1 n Findings from the Pre-JOBS Evaluations Generalizing from the Pre-JOBS Research Service Strategy Programs that provided intensive services were able to produce and sustain limited increases in employment and earnings for Useful as pre-JOBS studies have single parents, and some level of ‘return on investment.’ been in suggesting issues and questions The provision of higher-cost , more intensive services to select- for further consideration, Gueron and ed subgroups increased earnings but produced lower welfare Pauly are quick to qualify the use of savings. It was not clear that this approach would benefit the this research in pre-judging the JOBS most disadvantaged. concept. It was difficult, they say, to However, no studies have compared large-scale intensive edu- “reach firm conclusions” about the rel- cation and training programs with less intensive ones. The eval- uation of SWIM, a program that combined job search and work ative impact and cost-effectiveness of experience with some education and training, suggested that a ‘broad-coverage’ mandatory vs. nar- ‘mixed’ strategy (as in the JOBS model) may be quite effective. rower ‘selective-voluntary’ strategies in designing JOBS programs. First, Targeting The most job-ready were not helped by these programs. The group intermediate between the most job-ready and the there were important differences be- most disadvantaged had the most earnings gains. The most tween these two kinds of strategies in disadvantaged group was the source of most welfare savings— terms of program models and the way although this group had smaller and less consistent earnings the programs were evaluated. Second, gains. these pre-JOBS programs were operat- Tradeoffs Regarding Programs that produced earnings increases did not always ed under significantly different pro- Program Goals produce welfare savings. gram situations that involved varying Intensive and mixed-strategy programs appeared to produce grant levels, labor market conditions, larger earnings gains. Programs that placed job search assis- caseload characteristics and program tance at the front of the service provision chronology produced greater welfare savings. environments.

Participation Mode Mandatory job search only programs involving large numbers of Regarding the first point, broad-cov- clients did not increase earnings or benefit the more disadvan- erage programs influence nonpartici- taged, even though they sometimes produced limited welfare pants as well as participants. Selective savings. programs only influence certain target subpopulations. Evaluations mirror this or welfare savings, especially for 2) the impact of emphasizing inten- difference. Studies of the former focus those likely to become long-term sive assessment, service planning on everyone who is under the influence welfare recipients. This decision and case management, 3) the success of the program’s mandate, whether or should direct attention also to the of programs that require strong state not they are exposed to its services. role of income maintenance in pur- commitment, ownership and invest- Evaluations of the latter focus exclu- sively on participants (those exposed to suing these goals, and in actually re- ment — and cooperation between pro- the service strategy). With the former, ducing poverty. gram operators and evaluators in ap- the evaluation estimates the impact of plying an experimental methodology. n SWIM demonstrated that a large- the program as a system, rather than scale, mandatory, dual-goal program What we do not yet know, Gueron only the impact of its services on par- directed to a cross-section of the and Pauly propose, is whether pro- ticipants. With the latter, the effects are welfare population had the potential to grams like JOBS are more effective in estimated for the subpopulation target- ed to receive the services, most of produce less limited effects than earli- providing earnings gains and welfare whom are exposed to this strategy. er strategies. Results were particularly cost reductions. They suggest that MDRC’s evaluation of JOBS address impressive for single mothers. Consequently, Gueron and Pauly these questions: point out that the estimates of effects n The evaluations of the thirteen pro- 1. What subgroups benefit most? for selective-voluntary programs are grams reviewed did not tell us about usually larger than for broad-coverage the effectiveness of key features in 2. What are the best program models programs — yet these larger estimates JOBS that are relevant to JOBS and targeting priorities? do not necessarily mean that the impact planning and implementation, such as 3. Can the level of welfare savings pro- of broader programs’ service strategies the increased commitment to provide duced by some of the pre-JOBS pro- is less. The differences in effects, they suggest, might be due to higher partici- education and skills training, and the grams be maintained in JOBS given pation rates or to a targeting method targeting of services to teenage moth- the higher cost of this program? ers and long-term recipients. that “creams” for those most likely to 4. If welfare savings are lower in succeed. n There is little empirical evidence JOBS, will this be offset by greater Comparing costs also posed prob- about the following: 1) the effects of employment and earnings gains for lems, the authors believe, since the mandating participation by a large the priority target groups? higher cost of some selective-voluntary proportion of the welfare caseload,

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 27 Features n The Welfare System Poor

programs included wage subsidies that and Pauly feel that if mixed-mode ser- n What are the impact and cost-effec- may have been offset by later welfare vice ‘treatments’ were to become the tiveness of child care and Medicaid savings. Because these programs some- mode of choice in the 1990s, the most benefits that are provided to welfare times resulted in earnings gains without difficult task for JOBS planners and recipients who leave the rolls to work? welfare savings, and because their re- managers would be determining the What are the effects of different ad- sources and estimated net effects varied best mix for their own client subgroups, ministrative and funding arrangements considerably, a comparison of impacts labor markets, grant levels and commu- for in-program child care?” and costs could point in quite different nities, within state policy priorities and directions. resources. Some of these questions have bene- And the authors added to this list of Given this challenge, the authors fited and will continue to benefit from qualifications the fact that none of the previewed questions that would likely the evaluations of the demonstration evaluations of pre-JOBS programs direct the MDRC evaluation of JOBS projects initiated in the late 1980s and measured the potential impact of im- and other studies in the 1990s. The early 1990s. portant JOBS innovations such as the questions below are excerpted directly emphasis on education and the provi- from their book: Editor’s Note sion of transitional assistance (child n “Will JOBS be successful for moth- care and medical benefits). These cau- ers with younger children?” More specific information about tions led Gueron and Pauly to recom- some of the Pre-JOBS evaluations can mend that the evaluation of JOBS make n “What are the effects of different be obtained from the following MDRC more direct comparisons of the effects processes for determining who gets reports: of different types of program approach- which JOBS services and for man- 1983—Job Search Strategies: Lessons es. aging the caseload?” from the Louisville WIN Labora- tory (Carl Wolfhagen, et al.). Recommendations for JOBS n “Are mandatory welfare-to-work 1984—The National Supported Work Planning programs more or less effective than Demonstration (Robinson Hollis- Despite the extensive caveats, the voluntary ones?” ter, et al.). authors felt it was useful to make n “What works for the (usually male) 1985—Final Report on the Maryland guarded recommendations, based on participants from two-parent welfare Employment Initiatives Evalua- tion (Daniel Friedlander, et al.). the 1980s research, about potential op- families?” tions for JOBS planners. These recom- 1986—Final Report on California’s San mendations are presented in Figure 2. n “What are the nature and duration of Diego Job Search and Work Ex- Again, however, the authors make it JOBS’ economic and non-economic perience Demonstration (Bar- bara Goldman, et al.). clear that JOBS represents uncharted impacts on welfare recipients and waters. The expectations for JOBS are their children? Final Report on Virginia’s Em- ployment Services Program extensive. It is to involve more com- n “Will JOBS programs be able to plex program designs, be applied to a (James Riccio, et al.). achieve the scale needed to meet par- larger share of the caseload, succeed Final Report on West Virginia’s with new subpopulations of welfare cli- ticipation standards and yet maintain Community Work Experience ents and with the disadvantaged, pro- the successes demonstrated in smaller Demonstrations (Daniel Fried- vide more intensive services, utilize ex- or simpler pre-JOBS models? lander, et al.). 1987—Final Report on the Illinois Job panded service delivery functions, and n “Will the results of JOBS programs Search and Work Experience offer transitional assistance — in an era depend on the strength of local labor of continued budget restraint. Gueron Program (Daniel Friedlander, et markets?” al.). 1988—Final Report on Maine’s Train- Figure 2 n Options for JOBS Planners ing Opportunities in the Private Sector Program (Patricia Aus- Primary Goals Potential Best Options pos, et al.). Maximization of welfare savings, with Serving a large number of individuals Final Report on the Arkansas the possiblity of limited earnings gains, with low-cost services, primarily job WORK Program in Two Coun- except for the most disadvantaged. search assistance. ties (Daniel Friedlander, et al.). Earnings gains, with the possibility of Providing intensive services. Final Report on New Jersey’s benefits for the disadvantaged and Grant Diversion Project long-term recipients. (Stephen Freedman, et al.). Earnings gains, welfare savings, and Providing a mixed strategy: low-cost 1989—Final Report on San Diego’s reduction of long-term dependency. broad services and more expensive tar- Saturation Work Initiative Model geted services. (Gayle Hamilton, et al.).

28 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Welfare System Poor nn Another Look at trained labor economists. They propose — i.e. that the “applicant pool and that this is an artificial and misleading attrition process” will not change — Work/Welfare distinction. Features of implementa- but this is not a plausible assump- tion, they contend, are program treat- tion. Programs ments just as surely as services are, and therefore affect program outcomes. Al- The editors claim that these prob- In 1990, the Office of the Assistant lems of translation from experimental Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, ternative case management policies and social research to the real world have U.S. Department of Health and Human practices are one example. The use of performance standards is another. been “downplayed or ignored” in re- Services, and the Institute for Research cent experimental evaluations. In fact, on Poverty at the University of Wis- A major purpose of evaluation, the they suggest that there is “no basis for consin jointly sponsored a major na- editors insist, is to help policymakers the popular belief that extrapolation tional conference on the evaluation of choose which alternative is ‘best’ from social experiments is less prob- work/welfare programs. The working among a small set of acceptable pro- lematic than extrapolation from obser- papers prepared for the conference gram options. Another purpose is inno- vational data.” were published in book form in 1992 vation — the development of new, by Harvard University Press — Evalu- more effective programs. Therefore, the Beyond scientific considerations, ating Welfare and Training Programs, overriding research question for Mans- these researchers are concerned about edited by Charles Manski and Irwin ki and Garfinkel is “what must one un- the characteristics of research funding. Garfinkel. This article reviews ideas derstand about how programs work in They view evaluations conducted be- from the editors’ introduction and the order to reach conclusions about their tween the mid-1960s and the end of the chapter by David Greenberg and merits?” Methodological emphases for 1970s as representing a balanced mix Michael Wiseman, “What Did the answering this question have changed of basic research (on new program OBRA Demonstrations Do?” over the past decade. Experimental re- ideas) and applications of basic re- search has become the preferred strate- search (ongoing social programs). Comments on Evaluation gy because it is based on the assump- Since 1980, evaluation research has Research in Work/Welfare tion that the ‘experimental’ version of a been hampered, they say, by an imbal- ance in the direction of the latter. Their Manski and Garfinkel concede that program is operated under conditions view is: systematic program evaluation is re- that closely represent the conditions cent, having its origin in the 1960s. But under which that program actually op- Evaluation today is dominated they remind us of its rapid develop- erates in real-life environments. But by tightly-focused applications ment. In the 1990s evaluation require- Manski and Garfinkel point out that with short horizons . . . The [re- ments are an accepted part of federal this assumption is rarely borne out in search] contractor’s task is to legislation and many state social wel- practice: compare the short-run direct im- fare statutes. The most immediate ex- n Experimental studies of social pro- pact of a given program with a ample is the federal Job Opportunities grams are not “double-blind” evalu- particular alternative, often sim- and Basic Skills Program (JOBS). The ations where neither the experiment- ply the absence of that program Congress mandated separate studies of er nor the research subjects know . . . It discourages innovation in its implementation and its effectiveness. methods, efforts to understand who is in the treatment vs. the con- The methodological mandate to evalua- the complex set of processes tors involves the use of an experimental trol groups. Program administrators, that define a program, the eval- research design, reflecting the design of and often clients themselves, cannot uation of long-term program choice in studying the negative income help but know who is where. impacts, and creative thinking tax experiments and supported work n Large-scale social experiments about program design. demonstration, and later the Job Train- change the environment in which This is strong stuff. ing Partnership Act programs. they operate and may also change Despite these advances in public ac- the program’s effects. The OBRA Programs ceptance, funding and evaluation tech- n It is very difficult to assure that the David Greenberg and Michael Wise- nology, Manski and Garfinkel appreci- man focus on a specific set of pro- program sites selected for a study ate the continuing imperfections in grams, with another perspective on evaluation research. In particular, they are representative of all program evaluation methodology. These are the have a problem with the traditional sep- sites to which policymakers want the demonstration projects under the Om- aration of process evaluations (studies findings generalized. nibus Budget Reconciliation Act of of implementation) from impact evalu- n The evaluators must assume that the 1981, and subsequent OBRA legisla- ations (studies of program effective- tion. The authors conclude that the ness). The former are typically con- characteristics of program applicants and those of the individuals who quality of many of the evaluations of ducted by qualitatively-trained social OBRA programs was generally quite drop out of the study will not change scientists, the latter by quantitatively- high. They attribute this to the sophisti-

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 29 Features n The Welfare System Poor

cated research conducted immediately state-level) replication of these The researchers say the impact esti- prior to these programs, namely the projects. mates reported for earnings and welfare four income maintenance experiments receipt varied considerably from one and the Supported Work Demonstra- OBRA Service ‘Treatments’ demonstration program to another, tions, and to the aggressive marketing Only the MDRC research included a which likely reflected these factors: the capability of the Manpower Demon- focus on characteristics of the service variety of treatments provided, partici- stration Research Corporation(MDRC) treatments themselves, but the authors pation rates, variations in the target in convincing states that experimental made an effort to look across all twen- groups receiving treatment, differences evaluations using random assignment ty-four OBRA programs. They came to in institutional environments, and dif- were superior to other approaches and these conclusions: ferences in socio-economic and labor would yield more useful information market circumstances. The authors feel for policy and planning. Greenberg and n Job search was the major service that many of the impacts were estimat- Wiseman review twenty-four largely provided. ed with little precision and therefore mandatory work/welfare programs in are not statistically significant, but the n More than half of AFDC applicants nineteen states, under OBRA. Thirteen direction of the impacts (positive) im- eventually left work/welfare pro- of these were evaluated by MDRC. plied that these programs did actually grams (partly explainable by ineligi- In describing the different target increase earnings and reduce the wel- bility for a grant). fare rolls. If so, the effects were small. groups served by these programs, they Whatever earnings increments resulted alert us to their consequences for evalu- n A small but significant proportion of ation: “These were evaluations involv- mandatory clients had to be sanc- appeared to have happened with a rela- tively small proportion of clients. Wel- ing program participants, not appli- tioned for noncompliance with the fare savings were also limited. cants . . . Participants are likely to be work/welfare program rules. more disadvantaged since many appli- The authors propose that the impact cants will end up not receiving wel- n Members of some control groups re- data support two additional inferences: fare.” They have other concerns as ceived substantial services from 1) no clear pattern emerged regarding well. In some cases, the research sam- providers other than the program be- how successful these programs were ple was limited to new mandatory cli- ing studied. for new AFDC applicants vs. persons ents. These new clients may have had already receiving AFDC, or for single n The research did not address what characteristics that differed from exist- parents vs. two-parent families, 2) the clients’ information and expecta- ing participants. Such differences could addition of work experience to job explain some of the outcomes reported, tions were regarding participation in search did not appear to increase the ef- and reduce the generalizability of eval- the demonstration program. fect of job search alone, and 3) the evi- uation results. Programs also varied n The OBRA demonstrations provided dence was mixed in terms of the ‘decay’ along these dimensions: only weak evidence of the feasibility of program effects over time (although the evaluation period was too short to ad- n Geographic coverage. of mandating participation rates. dress this issue in most cases). n Type of participation mandate. OBRA Program Goals and MDRC attempted to estimate the ef- n The sequencing of services to clients. Impacts fects of a work experience treatment for subsets of treatment group members by n The major goals of OBRA projects, Intensive vs. non-intensive service disaggregating overall effects through the authors say, were to improve labor provision. subdividing the samples on the basis of force performance and reduce welfare n Program environments, particularly dependency. At the organizational lev- recipient profiles utilizing preprogram earnings or welfare history. However, economic conditions. el, the interest was in changes in case- no consistent pattern appeared on the load size and welfare costs. At the level n Program design and implementation. of the client, the focus was on changes basis of which insights about successful targeting could be applied to future n Evaluation methods. in employment status, earnings, welfare programs. There was consistent evi- status, and the level of transfer pay- While Greenberg and Wiseman ac- ments. dence, however, that single parents knowledge that the OBRA projects pro- with pre-school children had just as vided the richest data available on the Greenberg and Wiseman report on positive a set of effects as those with experiences of welfare clients over the thirteen sets of findings in which older children, an insight important in time, and data that were likely more re- they have most confidence. Ten of the development of JOBS. liable than survey data, they conclude these were from MDRC evaluations, the remaining were from the Massachu- In reviewing the research on OBRA that differences on the above dimen- programs, Greenberg and Wiseman dif- sions reduced the utility of the evalua- setts’ ET Program, North Carolina’s ferentiate between those who leave tion findings as a basis for forecasting CWEP Demonstration, and Washington State’s Intensive Applicant Employ- welfare rapidly and those who stay on the effects of a national-level (or in the for longer periods, since these two case of more limited demonstrations, a ment Services Project. groups have different characteristics

30 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Welfare System Poor

that affect outcomes. For example, the participating with those choosing not to those assigned to treatment groups latter group accounts for a dispropor- participate was a strategy used by the dropped out of AFDC prior to being re- tionate share of welfare costs. Other Urban Institute in evaluating Massa- quired to participate, and undoubtedly a subgroups of interest are the job-ready chusetts’ ET Program. Comparing actu- portion of this group dropped out to vs. the non-job-ready, and those with pre- al outcomes with what would have avoid participation. Therefore, most school vs. older children. The less job- been expected on the basis of past ex- treatment groups included individuals ready and those with younger children perience was the method used in evalu- who had not been exposed to the are disproportionately represented in the ations of Oregon’s and Utah’s pro- OBRA program at all. Consequently group of longer-term welfare recipients. grams. A more sophisticated approach program impacts were likely underesti- was used in the second study of the ET mated. It is critical, the researchers say, to understand to what subgroup the re- Program. This involved the develop- Since it is important to predict how ment of statistical models presumed ca- ported effects apply. Logically, these successful a demonstration program pable of predicting the difference be- groups could be 1) all AFDC recipi- will be if converted into an ongoing ents, 2) all members of the targeted tween normally-expected outcomes and program, the dependence of impacts on those attributable to the new program. population of recipients, and 3) only participation rates is seen as a problem However, the authors do not feel that those who actually participated in the by the authors. The more a demonstra- OBRA program. Impacts will become using past experience as a baseline pro- tion differs from the semi-permanent vides sufficient control over rapidly increasingly large, they suggest, as one program in terms of participation rates, changing socio-economic conditions in moves from 1) to 3). The MDRC evalu- and the quantity and mix of services ations focused on 2), they propose, but real-life program environments. each participant receives, the less able the effects were interpreted as if they Site Selection researchers are to predict the effects of applied to 3). Only a few evaluations of the larger program. OBRA projects answered the question Site selection processes and out- of whether the program had substantial comes, Greenberg and Wiseman appro- Impact Across Subgroups priately believe, have important conse- effects on those who actually received Greenberg and Wiseman also cau- quences for the production of unbiased the program treatments, and unfortu- tion us about differences in impacts for nately this small group of studies were information. Some OBRA treatments certain subpopulations of clients based were state-specific and they conclude seriously flawed. on characteristics such as personal that the results of evaluations could not traits, demographic characteristics, Quasi-Experimental be generalized to other states. Some length of welfare history and the Evaluations models were applied only in selected amount and kind of previous work ex- offices or areas within a state, locations Some of the non-MDRC evaluations perience. It is difficult, they point out, utilized quasi-experimental research that were not representative of the state to determine what the program effects as a whole. In the latter situation, the designs (treated groups and construct- are tied to: whether to personal differ- willingness of sites to be part of a dem- ed, matched comparison groups) as ences, policy and administrative differ- well as experimental methodologies. In onstration project and to be evaluated ences, or to differences in program was a major selection criterion — with the quasi-experimental studies, statisti- treatments. the possibility that this motivational cal adjustments were made to further ‘equate’ treated and non-treated factor explained some of the effects. Comparing Alternative Treatment Modes groups, but Greenberg and Wiseman do Stage in the Demonstration not feel these adjustments were suffi- Chronology and Welfare For policy purposes, the researchers cient to reduce bias in these studies. Coverage explain that the ability to compare al- Also, as in all quasi-experimental re- ternatives within and across demonstra- Some programs were evaluated too search, not all variables of interest tion programs is important. Although early in their developmental history, could be measured in constructing the OBRA programs did not vary a great comparison groups. However, they see the authors point out —too soon to esti- deal in their treatment mode, they did mate the full effects these programs advantages in using a comparison vary regarding labor market conditions, would ultimately produce. Some did group strategy: experimental require- population concentration, AFDC grant ments can deter participation, change not allow for a long enough follow-up levels, welfare caseload characteristics, period to measure their impact ade- staff attitudes, or attract more appli- and administrative policies. With this quately. cants. Research using comparison sites much variation, the authors insist that it can assist in identifying phenomena Although participation in most is very difficult to isolate the effects of such as this. OBRA programs was mandatory, the the treatment. CWEP programs in San percentage of persons actually receiv- Diego and W.Va. varied considerably Nonexperimental Evaluations ing the treatments was substantially in their earnings impacts, for example, Nonexperimental designs were also lower than the percentage eligible to corresponding directly to differences in used to evaluate OBRA programs. participate. The most important reason area unemployment rates. Also, there Within a given site, comparing those for low participation was that some of were only two evaluations among the

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 31 Features n The Welfare System Poor

twenty-four that utilized two or more search by the larger social science re- preferably graduated sanctioning treatment groups, with each receiving a search community. Within a longer procedures. different treatment. This allowed a time frame, researchers have seen both comparison of one treatment group positives and negatives in the 1980s re- 4. Modeling the Client Selection Pro- with another, as well as each treatment search. Greenberg and Wiseman have cess: The issue of how variations in group with the comparison group. this more conservative perspective. treatments occur should be studied Here are some of their conclusions: — that is, what major influences Data Sources shape the targeting and service as- n What went on in the OBRA projects Data on outcomes in most OBRA remains something of a “black box” signment processes? evaluations were administrative data — i.e. in many cases we do not 5. Comparing Effects for Subgroups: and follow-up survey data. Some states know what caused the effects report- Studies should guard against too could not rely on Unemployment Insur- ed. much treatment variation. Members ance files at that time, which would of different subgroups should be have been preferable in terms of accu- n We cannot predict well, in terms of treated as similarly as possible with- racy, the authors feel, to interview- the potential successful replication in the program being evaluated “so based data. of these programs. that genuine service efforts can be The JOBS Program n Information on effects for key sub- observed separately from the effects groups was not clear-cut. Overall, Greenberg and Wiseman of ‘creaming’ or other administrative saw little relationship between the n Cost-benefit findings were less reli- and service provision practices.” OBRA program models and the JOBS able than estimates of other impacts. 6. Methods for Mediating Labor Mar- Program. Unlike these demonstrations, ket Problems: Evaluations should JOBS emphasizes child support, pro- n No research has been conducted study the impact of methods for re- vides funds for extensive educational outside MDRC using the firm’s pri- ducing significant labor market bar- services, and transitional child care and mary data. medical for those who become em- riers to low-skill/low-wage workers, With respect to the last conclusion, such as basic skills training and pri- ployed. It involves participation targets, the OBRA demonstrations did not pro- vate sector employment organiza- provides services to two-parent fami- duce ‘public use data.’ The challenge tions that serve as brokers between lies, requires 16 hours per week partici- for national policy, the authors recom- pation in community work experience mend, is to develop ways to support the welfare offices and employers. by two-parent families, and requires the kind of research firms that are commit- 7. Funding Research: Studies should development and use of performance ted to systematic rigorous evaluation standards. be made of research support systems research, such as MDRC, with the as- that provide a more generous federal surance that the data from such efforts On the other hand, the evaluations match — but in return for states’ will- of OBRA programs did have a substan- can be made available to the social sci- ingness to address unresolved policy tial influence on the welfare debate, ence community at large. and provided a basis for policy change. issues and their compliance with na- Greenberg and Wiseman leave the tional evaluation requirements. What was achieved, the authors be- reader with additional recommenda- lieve, was a new sense that the ‘social tions about future research, including contract’ concept and the decentraliza- the evaluation of JOBS: tion of program development to states Editor’s Note had demonstrable feasibility. In addi- 1. Randomly Selecting Research Sites: Welfare offices within a state should For more reading on the issues dis- tion, the MDRC research increased the cussed in this article, please see: credibility and utility of well-conceived be randomly selected for testing var- and implemented experiments for in- ious treatments, to assure that results Manski, C.F. “Where We Are in the forming public policy. The message, Evaluation of Federal Social Welfare can be generalized. Programs,” in Focus, journal of the they say, was that states were capable 2. Studying Alternative Treatments: Institute for Research on Poverty, of reforming their welfare systems if University of Wisconsin-Madison, provided with “an enhanced menu of Emphasis should be placed on the Fall 1990. services.” The Family Support Act es- evaluation of specific treatment Greenberg, D.H. and M. Wiseman. sentially gave states such a tool kit. components, perhaps in multi-site “What Did the OBRA Demonstra- demonstrations. The cluster of treat- tions Do?” Discussion paper, Insti- Some Conclusions ments provided to different treat- tute for Research on Poverty, 1991. The Congress utilized the results ment groups should differ in terms Wiseman, M. (editor) “Research and from experimental OBRA evaluations of only a single component. Policy: A Symposium on the Family as they were produced, providing limit- Support Act of 1988,” in Journal of 3. Studying Sanctions: The impact of ed opportunity for feedback on this re- Policy Analysis and Management, sanctioning needs to be studied, October 1991.

32 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Homeless Poor

The Homeless Poor nn What Are We growth in homelessness is due to a wid- pared with the general population, ening income gap and the lack of af- the homeless were thirty-eight times Learning About fordable housing. Certainly larger eco- more likely to have a diagnosis of Homelessness? nomic influences are important, such as schizophrenia, five times more like- interest rates, and federal policy on ly to be diagnosed as having a major building low-income housing contrib- Writing for the New York Times in depressive disorder, and three times utes. Employment opportunities are February 1994, a well-known journalist more likely to have a primary diag- also significant, he says, as well as concluded that the homeless and their nosis of alcohol abuse. advocates had “lost the crusade for the minimum wage standards, the employ- public conscience.” The growing num- ment skills of low-income individuals, n Debilitating physical illness. For ex- ber of homeless individuals and fami- and the level of welfare or entitlement ample, in studies in the late 1980s, lies, he said, flies in the face of the income subsidies. Natural and man- 64% of homeless women were made disasters and major demographic American dream and is turning anger found to have gynecological prob- on the victim. changes can play a role. Overall, Buck- ner sees the rising number of homeless lems. Roughly half of both men and The shift in public attitudes toward persons as a result of the growing num- women had cardiovascular prob- the homeless echoes the shift that oc- ber of individuals who are at risk for lems. Tuberculosis rates were twen- curred during the Great Depression homelessness — ‘at risk’ status repre- ty-five times that of the general pop- when homelessness had penetrated too senting the combined effects of a myri- ulation. deeply into the mainstream of Ameri- ad of influences. can life. However, current homeless- n Physical and sexual abuse. A num- ness far exceeds that identified in the On the individual level, influences ber of studies have found a history Depression and is involving a much that reduce the economic competitive- of abuse across samples of homeless more diverse array of people. New ness of individuals also contributes to women. York City’s new Commission on homelessness — drug addition, mental n Fragmentation of social support Homeless Services recently defined ur- illness, single parenthood, and other networks. Homeless mothers were ban homelessness as no longer an “markers of vulnerability.” But home- emergency, short-term crisis, but “a lessness does not occur where the hous- found to have less contact with their long-term systemic issue” that will re- ing environment is favorable to the parental and extended families than quire the collaborative efforts of multi- housing consumer. housed mothers. Buckner suggested ple service providers. that it is likely that the higher rate of Causes of Homelessness abuse among homeless women may If long-term and systemic, we are long overdue in expanding our knowl- In looking at different factors influ- result in broken family ties. encing the slide into homelessness, edge of homelessness. In this article we n Buckner concludes that the following Lack of adequate education and em- review three essays in the winter 1991 ployment. To no one’s surprise, issue of New Directions for Program influences move individuals on a path- way into poverty and homelessness: across a set of studies funded by the Evaluation published by the American National Institute of Mental Health Evaluation Association. n Lack of monetary and extended fam- in the mid-1980s a consistent find- ily resources. For example, the U.S. ing was that the homeless are less “Pathways Into Homelessness” General Accounting Office, and so- educated than the broader popula- On the faculty of the Department of cial researchers such as Peter Rossi, tion and much more likely to be un- Psychiatry at Harvard Medical School, have found that individuals who deremployed or unemployed. John Buckner developed what he lack social and economic resources termed a “population-based, epidemio- and must depend on relatives or Recommendations to logical perspective” on homelessness, friends for housing are at increased Evaluators an approach he feels gives more atten- risk for homelessness. tion to the broader effects of social in- Buckner acknowledges that it is dif- terventions, and promotes the study of n Substance abuse and mental disor- ficult to disentangle causes and effects. program strategies at two conceptual ders. A psychiatric survey in Los Do these factors result in homelessness, levels: the macro-level and the level of Angeles revealed that 12% of the or are some of them a product of being the individual. homeless population had both sub- homeless? Because of the difficulties, Buckner strongly suggests limiting re- At the macro level, Buckner claims stance abuse and mental illness search to the newly homeless. He also there is general agreement that the problems. When rates were com-

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 33 Features n The Homeless Poor

ents,’ focusing on programs that are The rising number of homeless persons is the result similar in terms of their interven- of the growing number of individuals who are now at tions, target groups and program en- risk of homelessness, ‘at risk’ status reflecting the vironment. The main ingredients should be 1) a similar set of client combined effects of a myriad of influences. selection criteria and a similar selec- tion process, 2) common data collec- tion instruments, procedures and takes the position that we need two n To assist them in obtaining voca- schedules, and 3) a similar research kinds of information: 1) information tional training and employment. design. about the outcomes of programs target- ed to the homeless, and 2) information n To increase cooperation across hu- “The Evaluation of the Homeless about the effect a program has on the man service agencies in providing a Families Program: Challenges residential stability of the broader pop- wide array of services. in Implementing a 9-City Evaluation” ulation. Again the research perspective Having been given flexibility re- should emphasize phenomena at two garding the specific elements in sites’ There is accumulating evidence that levels, he says, the societal and the in- program designs, the resulting site-spe- homeless families need comprehensive dividual. In areas where low-income cific strategies varied considerably social, health and support services, and housing is scarce, for instance, inter- across the cities selected to participate assistance in accessing existing re- ventions increasing an individual’s in the demonstration. sources. Debra Rog of Vanderbilt Uni- competitiveness will hardly be suffi- versity discusses research issues in cient, as a singular strategy to reduce Evaluation Challenges evaluating a project funded by the Rob- homelessness. ert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Although there was a basic set of U.S. Department of Housing and Urban “Challenges in Evaluating a evaluation requirements, the separate evaluations of the city programs also Development, the five-year Homeless National Demonstration Program Families Program. The purpose of the varied substantially. A few sites used for Homeless Persons” demonstration was to identify effective an experimental approach; the majority In their article in New Directions, used constructed comparison groups of service strategies from among those de- veloped by these cities, for replication Robert Huebner of the National Insti- differing quality. Also the make-up of elsewhere. The cities selected were tute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, the research samples varied from one and Scott Crosse of Westat concentrate site to another, in terms of the program funded to develop comprehensive sys- tems for homeless families with multi- on evaluation problems encountered in and treatment statuses of the individu- ple problems. Emphasis centered on seeking better information on program als studied, and the point at which out- designs, implementation processes and comes were measured. greater coordination and utilization of the effectiveness of efforts to assist existing resources. homeless individuals and families with The national-level evaluation chal- substance abuse problems. lenge was deciding how to summarize Evaluation Approach results in a decentralized project whose Funded by Stewart B. McKinney The cities in the demonstration dif- sites differed regarding program philos- fered in terms of whether government Homeless Assistance Act money, the ophies, treatment techniques and target or community-based organizations National Institute sponsored a nine-site populations — and whose site evalua- were in the leadership role, what popu- demonstration requiring an evaluation tions used different methodologies. component. The strategy involved both lations were targeted, and how funds a process and a net impact evaluation The authors feel there were impor- for additional housing were used. The of each site, with the Institute conduct- tant evaluation lessons from this large- evaluation design was descriptive, with ing a cross-site evaluation. The net im- scale effort that could be applied to fu- greatest interest in 1) the nature of the pact study was to utilize a quasi-experi- ture homelessness studies. They made target populations, 2) the kinds of sys- mental or experimental research design. these recommendations: tem initiatives and specific services-en- riched housing interventions used, and n Increase comparability in site-spe- Project Goals 3) the outcomes of these efforts. A uni- cific and subsequent national evalu- form management information system The primary goals of the demonstra- ations by first developing a standard was developed for use across the city tion were to reduce levels of substance research approach for the national projects, structured case studies were abuse and increase access to available evaluation which can then be mandat- conducted, and within-site data analy- emergency, transitional and permanent ed for the site-specific evaluations. ses were carried out. housing. The secondary goals were: n Conduct cross-project analyses n To help the homeless obtain govern- based on a standard set of ‘ingredi- ment benefits, such as SSI.

34 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Homeless Poor

nn Evaluation Strengths and n Eighty-one percent were male. Weaknesses The Homeless and n Fifty-four percent were nonwhite. Despite the standardization of infor- JTPA mation collection, Rog detects a num- n Approximately half were between At the end of the 1980s, the National 31 and 50. ber of weaknesses in this research: Commission for Employment Policy n The evaluation relied on case man- came to a pessimistic conclusion, that n Almost half had not graduated from agers to collect information for the despite the growing national concern high school. about homelessness, little progress had MIS, which could have introduced n Over three-fourths were unattached considerable bias. been made in addressing the long-term employment needs of this population. adults. n No data were collected on families Since the JTPA amendments stressed a n Ten percent were parent/children after they left the program. greater effort in behalf of the ‘hard-to- households, eighty percent of which serve,’ NCEP decided to take a careful n The ability to evaluate the pro- were headed by women. look at the way in which JTPA had gram’s effects on individual families been able to affect change in the em- n Although most qualified for Food was limited. ployment status of the homeless. Stamps, only eighteen percent were Nevertheless, Rog finds genuine The Commission’s 1990 report on receiving them. value in this kind of descriptive re- this study, Helping the Homeless Be n Two-thirds had been in at least one search. It produced detailed, uniform Choosers: The Role of JTPA in Improv- of these types of institutions: a men- information on the needs, characteris- ing Job Prospects, produced useful tal hospital, a substance abuse cen- tics, project participation and outcomes findings and provided important policy ter, a county jail, a federal prison. of each family. It also produced infor- recommendations for the President, mation on the implementation of ser- Congress, and employment and training n Approximately six percent were vice systems in each site using multiple community. working at a steady job; one-fourth information sources. And it provided had worked over the last month; comparative data across sites. This The Context of the Study over half reported that they had body of information had practical im- The size of the homeless population looked for work over the past month. plications beyond the nine cities — has defied precise measurement, but it about case management strategies, in- A 1988 survey of twenty-six big city terventions with families who had a is considered somewhere between 400,000 and 700,000. What we know mayors by the U.S. Conference of whole cluster of problems, and about Mayors produced different findings. In more accurately is that this population human service system change. particular, they found a much larger is growing rapidly, and its characteris- tics are becoming more diverse — as proportion of families with children. As Some Comments with all surveys, however, findings are diverse as the general population. By related to the research sample, the sur- Quantitatively-oriented outcome most accounts, families are the fastest studies, particularly experimental net growing segment. Most of these fami- vey methodology and the research envi- ronment. What all the studies have shown impact studies, gained considerable lies are headed by women and include so far, NCEP concludes, was that the prestige in the 1980s and continue to two to three children under age five. enjoy much respect in the evaluation NCEP reminds us in the report that problems of the homeless go consider- ably beyond the need for housing. research community. However, emerg- these estimates say nothing about the ing social phenomenon do not always ‘near homeless’ and the ‘housing vul- Causes of Homelessness lend themselves to the most rigorous nerable’ which would swell the home- methodologies. American homelessness less population if counted. Many of NCEP’s study pinpoints a number of is certainly an example. Exploratory these individuals and families are liv- factors considered to influence the and descriptive studies such as those ing temporarily with relatives or growth in homelessness: reviewed here provide significant clues friends. One study suggests that an ad- n Increase in those living for an ex- that can help direct more sophisticated ditional four to fourteen million Ameri- tended time in poverty or near the research. The identification of major can families are in this latter situation. poverty level. variables for further study is an impor- Any economic downturn would in- tant achievement in itself. Moving from crease this population further. n Long-term underemployment and more general issues to those amenable unemployment. to quantification is an appropriate re- The Urban Institute’s 1989 survey search chronology for problems about of over a thousand homeless individu- n Decrease in jobs for low-skill work- which we need to know far more if we als using shelters and soup kitchens in ers. are to develop meaningful policy. twenty cities revealed these characteris- tics of that particular portion of the n Decline in wages in jobs low-skill homeless population: workers tend to hold.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 35 Features n The Homeless Poor

n Permanent loss of certain kinds of terviews with 55 urban JTPA Service n Easily accessible substance abuse jobs. Delivery Area directors, and seven in- and mental health services to which depth case studies of city JTPA home- staff can refer homeless clients, and n Rise in female-headed families. less programs. Figure 1 presents the continued monitoring of client n Spouse and child abuse. major findings and recommendations. progress in treatment. The following program elements ap- n De-institutionalization of people for- n Close follow-up after program com- merly housed in treatment facilities peared to be essential to effective pro- grams for the homeless: pletion. and reduction of funding. n Careful screening of prospective Conclusion n Decreased federal support for gov- participants to determine potential ernment housing programs. This important descriptive study employability. supported the conclusion that homeless n Lack of affordable housing. n Documentation that the client is, in programs must be comprehensive, staff- The Commission also reviews a num- fact, homeless. intensive, and highly coordinated with ber of studies in the late 1980s whose a strong network of providers that in- findings are consistent with the over- n Adequate housing during program volves new segments of the service view of causes above, and support a fo- participation. community. The issue of expanded funding to support such a system is a cus on education, training and employ- n Staff that are knowledgeable about critical policy question. ment as part of a more comprehensive and committed to the homeless, with package of strategies. strong support for staff through Other Insights from the Study training and frequent meetings and retreats. The study involved a policy analysis regarding homelessness, telephone in- n A case management approach.

Figure 1 n Study Results and Suggestions

Findings Recommendations

1. Eligibility Uncertainty exists about whether homeless JTPA applicants Congress should clarify, through an amendment to JTPA or the must meet JTPA’s income-based eligibility criteria. DOL per- McKinney Homeless Assistance Act, that homeless individuals mits states to waive requirements for the homeless, but not are automatically eligible for JTPA, without having to meet in- all states have honored this option. come requirements.

2. Support Services The array of support services needed by the homeless, and Private Industry Councils should develop on-going, predictable the service intensity required, are greater than with tradition- linkages with substance abuse and mental health treatment al JTPA client populations. providers to ensure that homeless clients needing such treat- ment are provided these services along with education, training and employment.

3. Training Many homeless persons lack financial support for training. Payments to cover training should be needs-based. Clients ap- The homeless lack a home base from which to make calls to propriate for training but unable to contribute should be subsi- and receive calls from employers. They require substantial dized. The proportion of JTPA funding that can be spent on support and monitoring from program staff in seeking em- support services should be increased from 15 percent to 20 ployment. percent. Also, DOL should encourage Private Industry Councils to develop linkages with other providers of support services to further expand these resources for the homeless, and to devel- op incentives to reward this kind of coordination. The use of a job-search-only strategy with the homeless should be rejected. Figure 1 continues

36 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Homeless Poor

Figure 1 continued

4. Use of Performance Standards The performance management system has not increased the DOL should require that the status of ‘homeless’ be added to type and level of services to the homeless in JTPA. The re- JTPA data requirements. The inclusion of this client characteristic gression models used in this system actually discourage ser- should encourage providers to increase service to this category. vice to some groups, including the homeless, because no specific adjustment is made for the ‘homeless’ status.

Extensive homelessness is a recent phenomenon, therefore States should study their performance standards policies to en- the national job training system has had little experience serv- sure that 1) they permit adjustments for serving homeless clients, ing this group within the economically disadvantaged popula- and 2) state-developed regression models do not punish Service tion, and little information has been available to inform policy Delivery Areas for serving the homeless. DOL should provide and planning. Most Service Delivery Area directors view this technical assistance to states to assist them in establishing poli- group as difficult and costly to serve, therefore they are con- cies for making such adjustments. cerned that serving the homeless will take scarce funds from other target groups and reduce their ability to meet perfor- mance standards. Even though there is no evidence to sup- port this anxiety, the growth in homelessness over the past decade could result in such a problem.

5. Incentive Policies The performance management system involves fiscal ‘bonus- Congress should clarify that incentives can be awarded for meet- es’ for performance that exceeds standards. States have flexi- ing as well as exceeding performance standards. DOL should re- bility in developing criteria for awarding these incentives and view cost standards, and states should take a look at their award in determining how incentive/technical assistance funds are to policies to see how they can encourage service provision to the be allocated to high vs. low performers. Efforts to meet the ‘hard-to-serve,’ including the homeless. award criteria have often conflicted with serving the homeless.

6. Housing If homeless clients cannot find adequate housing, employ- Private Industry Councils should play a role in increasing afford- ment and training efforts are not effective in terms of job ac- able housing in their areas. quisition and retention.

7. Coordination with Other Providers The multiple needs and problems of homeless individuals and Private Industry Councils should learn how to coordinate with and families require a comprehensive systematic response. leverage resources via other service providers, particularly pro- viders of treatment and support services—i.e., providers with whom JTPA has not worked traditionally. Working with local ser- vice provider task forces and coalitions focusing on homeless- ness would be an effective way to accomplish this. PICs should also consider establishing their own task force or committee on employment and training strategies for the homeless. 8. Additional Funding The McKinney Act provides short-term grants for employment DOL should increase awareness of the McKinney Act’s grants, and training demonstration projects, such as those reported and provide a longer response time for developing proposals. on in the article following this one. Only about half of the DOL should also provide more timely and extensive technical as- SDAs applied for these grants, due to the short response time sistance to grantees, and change the McKinney funding cycle to re: the RFPs and to a limited knowledge of these projects and correspond to the JTPA planning/budgeting timetable. their funding arrangements.

EDWAA, the component of JTPA serving dislocated work- More EDWAA funds should be directed to eligible homeless. ers—whose eligibility requirements are not income-based— can be a funding and service resource for homeless who qual- ify.

9. Outreach and Recruitment The majority of SDAs do not mount aggressive outreach and State job training councils should hold seminars or conferences recruitment efforts with the homeless. to educate PICs and SDAs about the homeless, form a separate committee or task force, or add an expert on homelessness to their councils.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 37 Features n The Homeless Poor nn The Department of features, and the development of an and development of strategies to fill evaluation framework. The results of gaps in the supply of housing. Labor’s Study of the first year were reviewed in a previ- Homelessness ous issue of Evaluation Forum. Evaluating the Demonstration The second phase expanded the The evaluation was conducted at There was an alarming prelude to demonstration to forty-five projects, two levels: the individual project level, the Stuart B. McKinney Homeless As- fifteen of which had participated in the and the national level (across all local sistance Act. In 1987 it was estimated earlier phase. The third phase involved projects). It was to answer implementa- that as many as a million Americans twenty of the sites funded in the second tion questions, such as: could be homeless at some point in phase. The 1993 report on the demon- n time, and researchers had reported rap- stration, Employment and Training for The characteristics of program par- id growth in the homeless population America’s Homeless: Report on the Job ticipants. between 1983 and 1987. This expand- Training for the Homeless Demonstra- n The characteristics of the services ing population was composed dispro- tion Program, is the basis for the dis- provided. portionately of younger people, ethnic cussion in this article. minorities, families, females, and the n Factors affecting implementation, mentally ill. This unprecedented in- The Demonstration’s such as the level of coordination. crease was thought due to economic re- Interventions n structuring and consequent job loss, the Major outcomes. The local projects that comprised the lack of affordable housing, more re- n demonstration were required to pro- What the most effective service pro- strictive requirements for accessing vide, or arrange for the provision of a vision strategies appear to be. welfare and disability benefits, the de- menu of basic service options, even institutionalization of mental health DOL specified a uniform set of pro- though they were encouraged to test in- cess and outcomes measures for use in care, and the recent recession. National novative, replicable service strategies. legislation was the response. the evaluation, and provided ongoing The menu included these services: technical assistance to the sites. Part of The U.S. Department of Labor n Outreach, intake and program en- the technical assistance effort involved Study rollment. the development of an ideal-type ser- vice delivery model as a way to assist Against this somber background, the n Case management and counseling. local projects and monitoring staff. Job Training for the Homeless Demon- n Assessment and employability devel- This model described the service deliv- stration Program was initiated. One ery system as a logical sequence of ser- opment planning. section of the McKinney Act had di- vices, suggested a wide range of sup- rected the Department to plan, imple- n Substance abuse and mental health port services, and recommended that a ment and evaluate this large-scale dem- assessment and counseling, with re- case management system be used. As onstration project targeted to the ferral to treatment if needed. projects sought to apply this model, al- homeless. Begun in 1988, the purpose ternative versions emerged which fit lo- of the project has been to provide train- n Support services: child care; trans- cal problems more closely. These op- ing and employment services to the portation; medical services; and life tional models relied heavily on client homeless, and assist them in securing skills/motivational training. assessments and their implications for jobs and housing. As the first compre- service delivery planning. hensive nation-wide federal employ- n Job training: remedial education; ment and training project directed spe- basic skills/literacy; job preparation Major Findings cifically to this population, it was to counseling and job search assis- provide insights for use in the develop- tance; work experience; vocational This was a very substantial evalua- tion effort, giving in-depth attention to ment of future E&T programs for the and occupational skills training; and aspects of both program implementa- homeless, including how best to in- on-the-job training. crease collaboration and coordination tion and outcomes. The study utilized across multiple service providers and n Job development and planning. nonexperimental exploratory and de- scriptive research designs, which were the private sector to serve the needs of n Post-placement follow-up and sup- the homeless. appropriate to the primitive state of our port services, including mentoring knowledge about the effectiveness of The implementation of the demon- and support groups. employment and training interventions stration occurred in three phases and n Housing: emergency assistance; as- for this population. Data analyses uti- involved a total of sixty-two local lized both aggregate site-level data and sessment of housing needs; referral projects. The demonstration was ex- participant-level data collected by the ploratory, emphasizing a beginning test to housing alternatives; placement in projects on key measures required by of the feasibility of key program design transitional and permanent housing; the McKinney Act and DOL.

38 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Homeless Poor

Outcomes in the exploratory stage was $2,600, services available at the local level, The evaluation determined that es- which did not include services provid- which were relevant to the homeless, ed through referrals to other providers. was considered a significant first step tablishing decentralized E&T programs Second-phase average costs varied con- in careful planning. for the homeless was indeed feasible. Twenty-eight thousand homeless indi- siderably from site to site, with an aver- The study revealed that only a small age across all sites of $3,000 per place- viduals received services; twenty thou- percentage of the population identified ment. Differences were related to sand received training; nine thousand as homeless was being served by JTPA. five hundred obtained employment; participants’ characteristics, program Based on the Urban Institute’s estima- size, the type and intensity of services, and a similar number upgraded their tion of the homeless population, less the ability of sites to leverage resources housing situation. There was evidence than one percent of this population was also that the local projects had been from other organizations and the ser- being served by JTPA. Counting JTPA, vice delivery strategy. able to respond to the different needs of the demonstration project, and the clients with a broad range of character- In terms of housing outcomes, the Homeless Veterans’ Reintegration istics. A significant number were able evaluators predicted that forty percent Projects, only two percent of the home- to overcome multiple barriers to ob- of participants in E&T programs target- less population was being served by taining employment and retaining jobs, ed to the homeless could be expected to federal employment and training ef- which allowed them to secure more upgrade their housing and one-fourth to forts. permanent housing. have secured permanent housing. In- Implications for Future Across local projects, job placement corporating housing assistance within the service menu was considered criti- Programs rates remained relatively stable — ap- cal to successful housing outcomes. It proximately one-third of project partic- In drawing conclusions from the ipants obtained jobs. Nearly half of is important to note that housing out- rich pool of information from the comes did vary across sites by subpop- those placed had retained employment study, and making recommendations ulations, families with children being over the follow-up period of thirteen about future strategies, the evaluators weeks. The researchers suggested that more successful in securing permanent were interested in improving both ac- housing. This was clearly associated case management, long-term follow-up cess to services and their quality. Some with the greater availability of housing and olther retention strategies, such as of the major implications and recommen- mentoring, likely contributed to job re- for families than for single individuals, dations are summarized in Figure 1 on rather than simply with the characteris- tention. But there was dramatic varia- the next page. tics of single individuals seeking hous- tion in employment outcomes across agencies and organizations providing ing. Some Comments on the Demonstration services. In the second phase, for exam- Program Implementation ple, placement rates ranged from below We are just beginning to support se- twenty percent to nearly ninety percent. A wide variety of service and treat- rious research on homelessness. In the The research team inferred that this was ment providers were involved in the past five years we have seen genuine due to providers having served a differ- demonstration project, such as commu- progress in directing policy attention to ent number of clients, having served nity-based organizations, educational this growing problem, and approaching clients with different characteristics re- institutions, Service Delivery Areas and the study of its causes and consequenc- garding employment barriers, having Private Industry Councils, mental es systematically. The research reported used different service delivery strate- health clinics and shelters. Some local on in the previous article, and sophisti- gies, and having dealt with differing la- projects targeted services to particular cated efforts by the National Commis- bor markets and housing situations. subpopulations of homeless persons. sion and Department of Labor have For example, in the first phase, al- The most striking result, given this added significantly to the knowledge though about half the sites served all base about the nature and problems of diversity, was that most major sub- homeless individuals, the others gave groups of homeless participants experi- this segment of the poverty population. priority to special groups, such as enced similar placement rates. The They have contributed a great deal to youth, offenders, single mothers and our understanding of what kinds of evaluators interpreted this as a support the mentally ill. for well- structured employment and program approaches will be most effec- training programs serving a wide spec- The basic model proposed by DOL tive, and there are lessons in this re- trum of homeless persons. proved to be very important. The evalu- search that go beyond the homeless. ators concluded that comprehensive, in- These can assist us in designing effec- The average costs of training and tensive services involving the wide ar- tive strategies for the underclass and placement varied substantially across ray recommended by DOL were welfare poor, and the traditional ‘hard- sites, associated as one would expect necessary, and that coordination across to-serve’ population within major na- with the kinds of persons served and providers was essential. The develop- tional employment and training pro- the type of training provided. The aver- ment of an inventory and assessment of grams. age cost per placement across all sites

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 39 Features n The Homeless Poor

Figure 1 n Implications and Recommendations Editor’s Note

Implications Recommendations For other publications of interest, Homeless individuals and families ex- Expand outreach and strengthen re- please see: perienced limited access to needed cruitment efforts through linkages with services. existing programs serving the home- Burt, M.R. and B.E. Cohen. America’s less, such as shelters and soup kitch- Homeless: Numbers, Characteristics ens. and the Programs That Serve Them. Washington, D.C.: The Urban Insti- Existing services frequently lack hous- Incorporate housing assistance within tute, 1987. ing assistance. employment and training programs, uti- lizing linkages with local providers of Bingham, R.D. et al. (editors) The transitional and permanent affordable Homeless in Contemporary Society. housing. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publica- tion, 1987. Because of the multiple problems of the Expand existing employment and train- Fischer, P. Alcohol, Drug Abuse and homeless, they need access to a wide ing coordination arrangements to in- range of support services. clude providers of substance abuse Mental Health Problems Among and mental health services, and trans- Homeless Persons: A Review of the portation. Literature. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 1991. Housing is crucial to the success of Develop a long-term job retention and Institute of Medicine, National Academy employment and training efforts. housing strategy (up to a year beyond placement). Some effective methods in- of Science: Homelessness, Health clude: life skills and housing manage- and Human Needs. Washington, ment; skills training; longer-term case D.C.: National Academy Press, management; mentoring and support 1988. groups; continued provision of support Rossi, P.H. Down and Out in America: service during a longer follow-up peri- od. The Origins of Homelessness. Chi- cago, IL: University of Chicago Data on outcomes for a longer follow- Establish a six months and one year Press, 1989. up period than 13 weeks is important in follow-up period for measuring employ- U.S. Conference of Mayors: Status Re- estimating the effectiveness of specific ment and housing outcomes, preferably port on Hunger and Homelessness kinds of employment and training pro- using unemployment insurance data. grams for this population. To the extent possible, participant out- in America’s Cities in 1988: A Twen- comes should be compared with those ty-Seven-City Survey. Washington, of similar individuals not receiving the D.C., 1989. program’s services and referrals, to es- U.S. Department of Housing and Urban timate net effects. Development: A Report on the 1988 Close cooperation and coordination Increase contact and ongoing coopera- National Survey of Shelters for the with suppliers of housing assistance tion and collaboration between employ- Homeless. Washington, D.C., 1989. and low-cost and government-subsi- ment and training programs for the dized housing is important in increasing homeless and public housing agencies access to housing for the homeless. and other providers of low-cost hous- ing.

The short-term nature of grants to local Consider multi-year funding commit- projects makes it difficult to develop ments contingent on satisfactory strategies, maintain staff continuity and project performance. plan for the future.

40 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Features n The Homeless Poor

Editorial Commentary comes were 56% lower than for mar- more workers in 1990, a large major- ried-couple families in 1973 and ity of poor families were working In concluding the Features Section it 58% lower in 1990. In married-cou- poor families. Families maintained is useful to look at some of the charac- ple famlies with wives who did not by nonworkers had very high pover- teristics of American households, fami- work, median incomes were much ty rates. lower than in families where the lies and children over the past three de- n Poverty Rates for Children: Between cades. This window on poverty was spouse worked, regardless of the 1959 and 1969 the poverty rate for opened in the U.S. Department of Com- work experience of the husband. children dropped sharply from 27% merce’s November, 1992 Current Pop- With respect to the distribution of to 14%. By 1990 the rate was 21%. ulation Report. family income regarding children, in- Among children under 18, rates for come inequality increased between black and Hispanic children were n Educational Attainment: Since high- 1969 and 1989. The proportion of er educational attainment is associ- much higher than for whites. In 1990 children with a low relative income the youngest children were those ated with higher income, it is also increased from 19% to 29%. associated with lower poverty rates. most at risk. Black children were For those 25 and older in 1990, the n Poverty Rates: Families with chil- three times as likely as whites to live poverty rate fell from 22% for those dren under 18 experienced a decline in poverty; Hispanics two times as with less than a high school educa- in poverty from approximately 20% likely. Fifty-three percent of children tion to 9% for high school graduates in 1959 to 11% in 1969. In 1980 the under 18 who were in single-parent and to 4% for those with one or poverty rate rose to 15%. White fam- families were living in poverty, and more years of college. ilies had the lowest poverty rates, rates were much higher for black black families the highest. Income and Hispanic children than for white n Labor Force Participation of Women: inequality increased among families children. By 1990, 75% of married women with children between 1969 and with children of school age were in These changes in American families 1989, and the proportion with a low and family well-being are clearly dis- the labor force, and there has been relative income increased much a rapid increase in the proportion of turbing. They beg for additional expla- more than the proportion with a high nations and solutions. Using the results women with infants who are in the relative income. labor force. In 70% of married-cou- of an unprecedented number of careful ple families both husband and wife In married-couple families with chil- studies of poverty issues since 1960, worked. In female-headed families, dren, poverty rates were particularly particularly those since the late 1970s, a majority of household heads low, although they varied across and nurtured by the new climate of poli- worked, but in a substantial propor- whites, blacks and Hispanics. Pover- cy concern and attention regarding pov- tion of these families no one had ty rates were much higher for mar- erty, poverty researchers appear to be worked during the previous year. ried-couple families with children revitalized. This will likely translate to where only the husband worked, for increased use of the better research, n Family Income: Female heads of two-parent families where only the greater innovation in suggesting anti- families experienced an increase of wife worked, and for female-headed poverty approaches, and a continuing 37% in median income between families where the household head commitment to rigorous evaluation of 1947 and 1973, and a 5% increase worked. Since 93% of family house- these new ideas. between 1973 and 1990, but their in- holds with children included one or

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 41 Commentary

Editorial Introduction reau of Consumer Affairs. From 1976 to In this issue of Evaluation Forum fo- 1980 he headed the policy planning cusing on poverty, we benefit from Sec- With a distinguished career in uni- staff of the Commission, continuing be- retary Reich’s perspective on the mac- versity education and public service, yond his series of government positions ro-economic and workforce factors Robert Reich has had a persistent in- to advise both business and govern- affecting the nature and extent of pov- terest in understanding the causes and ment. erty in the U.S. He has commented that effects of evolving economic problems More recently, Secretary Reich was traditionally we have not viewed eco- and opportunities. He is well known for a member of the faculty of Harvard Uni- nomic and labor force policy as anti- developing strategies to respond to the versity’s John F. Kennedy School of poverty policy, yet efforts to reduce un- impact of global economic change on Government. While at Harvard he au- employment and underemployment and working Americans, and was a major thored seven books and over two hun- to deal with worker dislocation must contributor to President Clinton’s eco- dred scholarly and popular articles on now be seen as significant macro-level nomic plan, Putting People First, which the American economy and workforce. strategies contributing to the reduction defined the central economic issues of poverty. The same set of approaches In May,1992, he co-authored and faced by the U.S. and proposed a com- essential to the ‘reinvention’ of general hosted an acclaimed PBS television se- prehensive plan for addressing them. labor force policy, he believes, can ex- ries, “Made in America,” which focused pand economic opportunity not only for Secretary Reich received a graduate on the American economy, its role in the middle class but for the near-poor degree in philosophy, politics and eco- the emerging international economy, and poor. This informative commentary nomics from Oxford University as a and promising models for change. by Secretary Reich provides an over- Rhodes Scholar, and has a law degree Forbes Magazine recently named Sec- view of these new approaches, linking from Yale University. He served as As- retary Reich as one of the key individu- them directly to the results of compe- sistant Solicitor General in the Ford Ad- als in the U.S. in the forefront of the tent evaluation research. ministration, and assistant director of movement to increase American com- the Federal Trade Commission’s Bu- petitiveness.

become responsible members of our so- from 1980 to 1991, the real earnings of Getting America to ciety — even if they come from our full-time workers over age twenty-five Work: What’s toughest neighborhoods. who had graduated from college rose by 9 percent. But earnings for similar As the President said, the pillars of Working and What’s workers who had completed high society are family, community and school but had not gone to college Not Working in work. Work does more than put struc- dropped by 7 percent. Workforce Policy ture in our days and money in our pockets. It also grants dignity and inde- Within a century, Americans have by pendence — and can even provide moved from the farm to the factory, meaning to our lives. and not to the computer workstation. Robert B. Reich Mass production manufacturing jobs, But today many Americans cannot Secretary of Labor which used to pay good wages to peo- get work, keep work, or advance in a career. Although the economy has been ple without much education or formal training, are disappearing — just as adding an average of 165,000 new jobs farm jobs began to vanish a hundred In his State of the Union address, the each month, the pathways to these jobs President spoke eloquently about the are not always clear. More than ever years ago. Fortunately, what is disap- pearing is being replaced by hundreds challenges still facing this nation, and before, in this country, what you earn of thousands of new kinds of jobs — his Administration’s determination to depends on what you learn. meet them head on. The overarching jobs that, at their heart, require workers goal is to enable all Americans to have If you have skills that come with a to identify and solve problems. Not all full and productive lives: to eliminate college degree or other training beyond of these jobs are in high-tech industries. the fear of loss of health care that so of- high school, you will probably find a And not all require a college degree. job and earn a good wage. But if you ten accompanies joblessness, to move There is the truck driver who has a people off welfare and into work, to do not have the skills, you are more than likely to be without a job or stuck computer and modem in his cab so that provide new jobs and skills for people he can time deliveries to exactly when in a job that pays substantially less than who need them, and to ensure that our the customer needs them, and then can children have a chance to prosper and the one you once had. For example,

42 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Commentary

help assemble complex machinery. He such training experience no discern- n Training for the wrong occupations. is not a trucker in the old sense of the ible benefit compared to low-income Our researchers have found that U.S. term. He is a technician, and he is mak- young people who do not get the training, vocational education, and ing good money. There is the sales per- training — no improvement in job loan programs turn out 80,000 certi- son in a department store who has com- prospects, no gain in earnings. fied cosmetologists per year — for a plete responsibility for her section of job market that each year has room the sales floor. She advises customers n Targeted jobs tax credit. In 1982, for only 17,000. about new products in her specialty. Congress established a tax credit to And she orders the latest and best mer- encourage employers to hire certain This is a disturbing list. Investing chandise, in a sense managing the area groups of disadvantaged workers. In scarce resources in programs that do not she knows best. She, too, is earning a 1991, to cite one typical year, some deliver cheats workers who require re- good living. There is the factory work- 428,000 employees were covered and sults and tax payers who finance failure. er in a new kind of factory. She sits be- credits claimed under this system. But So here is what we are going to do: hind a computer, programming and re- programming a robot that does the according to recent studies by Cornell We are going to recommend against pulling and twisting that humans once University’s John Bishop and Grinnel renewing the target jobs tax credit. We did. She earns a good income. And a Colleges’ Mark Montgomery, at least are going to require training as a con- man in the same company who main- 70 percent of these workers would dition for receiving trade adjustment tains and repairs computers continually have been hired even without their assistance. We are going to consolidate upgrades and links them together in employers receiving a tax break. all programs for displaced workers so ever more efficient ways. Like the rest, they qualify for help regardless of why n Small training stipends for Food he, too, has a good job. they lost their jobs. We are going to use Stamp recipients. During the last fis- And there are many others. In fact, a national jobs data bank to link job re- cal year, the Agriculture Department’s training tightly to where jobs exist. most of the two million new jobs that Food Stamp Employment and Train- were added to the economy last year re- ing Program provided $165 million in We will also shift money away from quired some education and training be- what does not help Americans get jobs job training to 1.5 million Food Stamp yond high school. And all of the good to what does. Here is a sample: jobs of the future will require problem- recipients — or about $100 worth of Job Corps. According to studies by solving skills and the capacity to con- training for each participant. Studies a set of economists at Mathematica Pol- tinuously learn on the job. Although the show zero impact on employment prospects and earnings. icy Research, young people who have core duty to develop such skills rests with entered this intensive, one-year, highly each citizen, government has a role to n Income support without training. structured training program earn 15 play in easing the individual’s workforce Trade adjustment assistance is sup- percent more per year thereafter than transitions, and in helping individuals their counterparts. They are twice as move from school to work, from welfare posed to provide income support likely to attend college, less likely to to work, and from work to work. and training to workers displaced by foreign competition. But the Labor commit serious crimes, and will spend But here is the problem: the system more of their adult lives in jobs and less Department’s Inspector General re- we have in place to ensure that every on welfare. The combined benefits of this cently determined that about half of worker learns and constantly upgrades program, after only five years, are one his or her skills is not a system at all. It the workers who qualify never enroll and a half times its costs — a 50 percent is a rag-tag collection of programs — a in training, and thus fail to develop return on the public’s investment. skills they need for the next job. hodgepodge of initiatives, some of Classroom instruction combined which work, many of which do not. In n Training only for particular groups with intensive on-the-job skill train- its place this country needs, and this of displaced workers. Along with ing. Another success story for disad- Administration intends to create, a true vantaged youth is the Center for Em- system of lifelong learning. We will trade adjustment assistance there is a ployment Training, based in San Jose, scrap what does not work, and build on special retraining program for work- ers displaced by defense downsiz- California, with 28 branches around the what does. Here, for example, is what country. CET connects what teenagers we know does not work. ing, another for workers displaced learn in school with what they will do due to logging restrictions in the n Conventional, short-term training on the job by placing local employers Northwest, and yet another for for disadvantaged teenagers. At fed- on CET’s board and fostering close ties workers whose job loss is connected eral expense, tens of thousands of to the local business community. Ac- to the Clean Air Act. Each of these low-income, out-of-school young cording to research by the Rockefeller programs expends vast resources people receive three to six months of Foundation and the Manpower Demon- trying to determine whether an ap- stration Research Corporation, CET job training. An exhaustive study re- plicant qualifies. Displaced workers graduates earned $6,500 more, in the cently completed by the Department who do not meet the requirements two years after their graduation, than of Labor shows that recipients of are out of luck. members of the control group.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 43 Commentary

Job training for disadvantaged in searching for the next job were re- business, labor, education, and commu- adults. According to a recent study by employed, on average, one to four nity groups to evaluate workers’ needs, a panel that included many of the na- weeks more quickly. provide them with new skills, and help tion’s most prominent labor econo- them find new work. These efforts, The Clinton Administration will mists, even relatively short-term train- build on these successes. We proposed, which are springing up around the ing is helping the approximately country, show that we can make pro- and Congress passed legislation to 300,000 low-income adults who enroll grams work — that we can do the right identify workers at risk of long-term each year in federal job training pro- joblessness and provide them with ear- things to get Americans working. grams. Their earnings are, on average, ly job search assistance. Too often in American politics the 10 to 15 percent higher than earnings in We are proposing an expanded Job debate over government programs has control groups given no training. Here been a collision between two philo- again, earnings gains substantially ex- Corps. And we are combining class- sophical caricatures — opposite in di- ceeded program costs. room learning with on-the-job training. The School-to-Work Opportunities Act rection, equally simplistic. One per- Combining supportive services, spective, often associated with the will tie the classroom to work-based like child care and job search assis- Republicans or conservatives, holds learning during the last two years of tance, with job training to get people high school and for at least a year after that the difficulty of making programs off welfare and into work. work justifies surrendering all hope for Evidence graduation. from pilot programs in California and making government a force for good in Massachusetts show that job training We will help move the poor from people’s lives. The other perspective, combined with child care, continued welfare to work, and help them stay at often associated with Democrats and health insurance, and job search assis- work. The President’s welfare reform liberals, holds that the nobility of a pro- tance speeded the entry of welfare recipi- proposal will provide child care, job gram’s intentions justifies surrendering ents into the workforce. And once em- retraining, and, where necessary, tran- responsibility for its results. Both these ployed, participants saw their annual sitional employment. ideologies, I believe, amount to a re- earnings increase by an average of $500. Finally, we are converting the unem- treat from the hard, vital work of de- A year of more of education be- ployment system into a genuine re-em- signing programs that deliver. And nei- ther is worthy of America’s workers yond high school. You do not need a ployment system. The Administration is degree to reap the benefits of invest- proposing legislation to create “one and families. They expect better. They deserve better. ments in skills. A recent study by Tho- stop” job centers providing not only mas Kane of Harvard University and unemployment checks but also job If we are truly to make the funda- Cecilia Rouse of Princeton University search assistance, job counseling, and mental changes Americans seem to shows that every year of skill training up-to-date labor market information. crave, we must get beyond this sterile, beyond high school boosts future in- Jobless workers who want to start their childish game of “government works comes by 5 to 10 percent. own businesses will be able to do so — no it doesn’t — yes it does.” We without giving up their unemployment New approaches and new incen- must respect the real need for helping benefits. Lump-sum benefits will be Americans navigate their workforce tives. Researchers compared unem- available to those who get jobs quickly. transitions, and respect the evidence ployed workers in Massachusetts and And regardless of why a person loses about what is working and what is not. Washington State who received train- his or her old job, he or she will receive ing in starting a new business with And we must accept the burden of proof up to a year and a half of instruction in in spending the taxpayers’s hard- those who did not receive such train- competitive job skills, backed by ex- earned money and recognize that effec- ing. Eighteen months after completing tended unemployment benefits. a program that trained the unemployed tive programs require clear-eyed, re- lentless assessment and reform. in entrepreneurial skills, participants I have seen evidence that programs were more likely to be working and can work and produce results. In Sun- Where a program works and meets a less likely to be collecting unemploy- nyside, California, the NOVA program real need, we will make it happen. ment benefits. In addition, a study by provides a one-stop center where dis- Where it does not, we will eliminate it. Bruce Meyer of Northwestern Univer- placed workers have successfully up- And where it is broken, we will fix it. sity showed that when unemployed graded their skills and gotten back on Build on what is working. Get rid of workers received a portion of the re- the job. I have been in Baltimore, what is not. maining weeks of their insurance in a where a program called Baltimore lump-sum payment — often enabling Works has succeeded in identifying and them to settle for lower starting wages profiling displaced workers early and Editorial Note in the next job — they were re-em- matching their skills to real job oppor- ployed faster. tunities in the area. The program pro- Secretary Reich’s commentary was vides comprehensive services that help written in March, 1994, shortly after the Job search assistance. Administration announced its legisla- Pilot pro- workers prepare for, and get, their next grams in six states showed that unem- tive proposal for workforce reform. A re- job. I have been to Louisville, where ployed workers who received not just view of his most recent book can be the Job Link Center brings together an unemployment check but early help found in Issue #9 of Evaluation Forum.

44 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Interviews

Editorial Introduction discussing the roots of poverty and ap- significant insights about American pov- proaches for reducing it. erty based on the extensive history of We are privileged in this issue of the In this section, interviews with Sena- poverty research and policy action in journal to learn from the ideas of three tor Daniel Patrick Moynihan and David which they have long played a decisive well-known experts. Secretary of Labor Ellwood, Assistant Secretary for Policy role, and on the critical part they are Robert Reich’s commentary in the pre- and Evaluation in the U.S. Department currently playing in restructuring anti- ceding section provided a macro-level of Health and Human Services, offer poverty policy and welfare reform. perspective, an important context for

An Interview with Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Editorial Introduction Senator Moynihan has written exten- the Hubert Humphrey Award given by sively on a range of social issues, hav- the American Political Science Associa- Daniel Patrick Moynihan is the se- ing authored or edited over a dozen tion in 1983. In the early 1970s, he nior United States senator from New books and numerous journal articles. served as chair of the Board of the York. He is currently chair of the power- His contributions to our understanding American Association for the Advance- ful Senate Finance Committee and a of family, poverty, ethnicity, equity and ment of Science Advisory Committee, member of some of the most influential justice, and international politics have and was a member of the President’s committees in the Senate. The only been acknowledged through fifty-five Science Advisory Committee. member of the Congress to serve in honorary degrees, and recognition by a Throughout his academic and gov- four successive administrations, in the number of prestigious academic organi- ernment career, Senator Moynihan has 1960s and 1970s he also served as zations including the American Acade- had a compelling interest in the prob- Ambassador to India and to the United my of Arts and Sciences and the Lon- lem of poverty and the status of the Nations. He was President of the Unit- don School of Economics and Political family in American society, and has ed Nations Security Council in 1976. Science. been the innovative thinker behind sig- Also, Senator Moynihan is one of the The Senator has received a number nificant welfare reform initiatives re- few social scientists in the Congress, of special awards such as the Meritori- sponsive to the changing nature of fam- having received a PhD from the Fletch- ous Service Award of the U.S. Depart- ilies and poverty over the past few er School of Law and Diplomacy, ment of Labor in 1965, and the John decades. He is considered the leading taught at Russell Sage College and LaFarge Award for International Justice welfare authority in the Congress. Syracuse University and held a profes- in 1980, and was the first recipient of sorship in government at Harvard.

Question: Your interrelated careers as training and employment program, and away from the one the Labor Depart- social scientist and policymaker have proposed the President’s cabinet-level ment had advocated, which emphasized seemed to come together around the Task Force on Manpower Conserva- job creation and a national full em- goal of assuring greater equity in life tion. The focus was on why roughly ployment policy. In the end, govern- quality and life chances across Ameri- half the young men examined by the ment’s response to poverty became a can families. Resolving American pov- Selective Service relevant to military work program for middle-class profes- erty has been a persistent interest. Wel- duty were rejected on the basis of their sionals. fare reform has been a major concern. failure of the physical and/or mental The Family Assistance Plan pro- Could you comment about the history exams. The Task Force’s research posed by President Nixon in 1969, with of your interests, and the American ex- found that the major proportion of which I was involved, assured a guar- perience with anti-poverty and welfare these youth were products of poverty. anteed income for children and families reform efforts? Lyndon Johnson took this seriously, with children. It did not pass the Con- Senator Moynihan: As Assistant promptly establishing the task force on gress. Subsequently, the Carter Admin- Secretary of Labor for policy and plan- poverty, of which I was a member. But istration made honest efforts to propose ning in the Kennedy Adminstration, I interest in the Johnson poverty program welfare reform, through the Equal Op- became interested in a national youth began to move in all directions, and portunity Pilot Projects, but there was

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 45 Interviews

no unifying concept or motivation for cializing agents for children and youth, had, in fact, fallen further behind. Fam- reforming the welfare system. In the which then handicapped these young ily structure seemed related to this phe- 1980s, the fierce challenge to the exist- people in their relationships to commu- nomenon. It seemed possible that the ing welfare system did produce a re- nity institutions. This disorganization, I processes that were leading to prosperi- sponse. suggested, was related to the failure or ty were also producing much of the inability of the father to play his re- poverty. But the Reagan Administration’s re- quired parental role. The most signifi- sponse was not consistent with what we In Family and Nation, I suggested were learning. The welfare system had cant indicator of growing social disor- that both prosperity and poverty ap- ganization in the black community changed significantly since its authori- peared to be linked with the “pathology appeared to be the growth of single- zation. In the beginning of the AFDC of postindustrial society.” I felt this is- program, half the children receiving as- parent families in poverty. sue must be addressed as the ’60s end- sistance from AFDC had one or both Despite the achievements of the civil ed. The times seemed right, finally, for parents dead. By the early 1940s the rights movement, I claimed there inevi- the development of a national family proportion had dropped to a fourth. By tably would be unequal outcomes for policy. the early 1980s, only a few welfare blacks in American society given the Until then policy had been focused families had this configuration. We had large proportion of children raised in on individual well-being, a pattern entered an era of unprecedented in- poverty, and insisted that we take steps unique to the U.S. Most industrialized crease in single-parent families related to prevent jeopardizing the civil rights democracies had embraced a wide to rising divorce and separation, and movement through neglect of this ma- range of social programs specifically the status of never having been mar- jor social issue. designed to support the family, the ried. In 1980, the Subcommittee on Pub- family allowance being the most fre- In the beginning, the number of new lic Assistance of the Senate Finance quent element. But no comparable fam- AFDC cases had tended to rise and fall Committee, of which I was chair, held ily policy had been supported in the with the level of unemployment. And it hearings on welfare reform. We re- United States. American individualism had become clear that unemployment ceived decidedly grim information. The precluded this development. American was correlated with numerous kinds of major insight was that the provision of history explained much. It had contrib- family dysfunction. As we moved from assistance to dependent children had uted to diverse family structures and the late 1950s into the early 1960s, been sharply reduced over the 1970s — behavior — an aftermath of immigra- however, the linear relationship be- in fact, even withdrawn entirely from a tion. Even though family cohesion and tween new cases and unemployment great many persons and families. And socio-economic achievement clearly weakened and ultimately disappeared. no one had seemed to care or protest. were highly related, there was no sys- The indices of social stress — separa- tematic exploration of this phenome- As benefits remained fixed and pric- tion, welfare — were going up even as es rose, more and more families with non. Social programs, such as AFDC, unemployment was going down. This essentially stigmatized the families it any income found themselves ineligible pattern held true for whites and blacks, served. To a large extent, a family had for public assistance. At the same time, but most strikingly for blacks. I hy- public policy toward families had be- to be classified dysfunctional to be as- pothesized that employment might sisted. come polarized between two extremes: have lost its power to determine social government protection of a range of In my four years in the U.S. Depart- arrangements — that is, deprivation, emerging family life styles, and the ment of Labor I had an opportunity to discrimination, and disorganization protection of the traditional family observe and study federal manpower might have been sustained sufficiently from government, through the repeal of training and antipoverty programs. The to be reproducing itself. programs supporting poor families. unemployment rate for adult black Kenneth Clark’s Dark Ghetto now males was 9.2% at that time, twice that Question: What were you learning al- seemed believable, with its assessment ready in the 1960s that disturbed you of whites. (Twenty years later, of that the urban ghetto was characterized course, these rates nearly doubled for about government’s approach to fami- by self-perpetuating social pathology, a both groups.) We were expecting these lies and poverty? contagion that could spread to the larg- men to raise stable, disciplined children er community. I became increasingly Senator Moynihan: The legislative in some of the worst urban housing in concerned about the influence of eco- agenda of the New Deal had finally the industrialized world. I concluded nomic change on family change in the been completed with the passage of the we were expecting the impossible. black population. This led me to write Elementary and Secondary Education A major lesson in American history The Negro Family: The Case for Na- Act and Medicare in the 1960s. The quality and decency of life in the U.S. was being ignored, namely that a coun- tional Action. It was consistent with try that allows a large number of young what Clark’s and Frazier’s earlier work were far greater than in the past. Yet men to grow up in broken families, sur- suggested, that as a result of family dis- there was a proportion of the popula- tion whose lives had somehow not been rounded by women, unable to develop organization, many black families were a stable relationship vis-a-vis male au- unable to function as appropriate so- touched by general affluence. They

46 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Interviews

thority, and not able to acquire rational, to the President under Richard Nixon, In 1980, the National Advisory Council planful expectations about the future, my position was that there were new on Economic Opportunity stated in will reap crime, violence, unrest and developments that posed a serious their annual report to the President that disorder — and a furious resistance to threat to the welfare of blacks and the “if the proportion of poor who are in the norms and desired conduct of the general stability of the society, the most female-headed families were to in- larger society. This is not to say that evident being the incidence of antiso- crease at the same rate as from 1967- single-parent households cannot be a cial behavior among black males. I sug- 77, the poverty population would be better environment for children than gested we had to move beyond the composed solely of women and their the alternatives that lead to family strategies characterizing the civil rights children by the year 2000.” This infor- breakdown. It is to say that we have movement to resolve such emergent mation helped separate the issue of learned that the lack of male role mod- problems. Earlier civil rights methods family structure from the issue of race. els and the absence of adequate em- simply no longer fit the problem. They Yet there was little public policy de- ployment pose serious problems. did not adequately address the issue of bate. I proposed, at that time, that it was the new underclass. They did not re- The 1980s involved the first genu- spond to the growing schism between imperative that we address the issue of ine, if silent, depression in half a centu- an increasingly successful black middle what was required for a working man ry. The poverty rate was at its highest to raise a family in an American city, class and an increasingly socially dis- level since 1965. In the economic ex- organized lower class. and see that those requirements were pansion that followed, poverty among met. In essence, we needed a national Question: What was happening to the elderly was significantly reduced. family policy not unlike the national families in the 1970s that strengthened But poverty among children declined employment policy exemplified by the your conviction that we were ignoring by only 21%. For the first time, the Full Employment Act. In Family and issues surrounding urban poverty? number of poor female-headed families Nation, I suggested it would have been was more than the number of poor Senator Moynihan: During the enough for a national policy on the married-couple families. And the pro- 1970s, female-headed families became American family to declare that gov- the majority of poor families with chil- portion of poor black children under ernment “promote the stability and age six rose to 51%. By this time, the dren. By 1980, the proportion was well-being of the American family; that great majority of poor adults were 56%. In New York State, the propor- the social programs of the federal gov- tion was 2/3rds. The change in the women — almost 2 out of 3 in 1984. ernment would be formulated and ad- More than one child in five was living structure of black families was related ministered with this object in mind; and below the poverty line; of these, almost to a decline in real family income. If finally that the President...report to the family structure had not changed, the one black child in two, and more than Congress on the condition of...the great one in three Hispanic children. average income of minority families range of American family modes.” would have increased more rapidly In 1983, the U.S. Commission on In my introduction to Alva Myrdal’s than that of white families. In fact, de- Civil Rights produced a report that re- Nation and Family I contended that pendent families as a group (whites and flected and legitimated publicly the the government could hardly avoid pol- blacks) were worse off at the end of the emergence of a whole new set of is- icies that influenced family relation- 1970s than at the beginning. And this sues: the rise in female-headed families ships. The only option for government represented a large subset of the popu- and the increase in teenage out-of-wed- was whether these would be purposeful lation. lock parenthood. Eleanor Holmes and openly communicated policies or Norton, the Carter Administration’s In 1981, half the children being born residual and indirect ones. By 1980, Equal Opportunity Commissioner and were likely to live in a female-headed looking back over all our efforts to household at some point prior to turn- now a Congresswoman, stated that “re- construct something like a national pair of the black family is central to ing eighteen. Seventy-five percent of family policy, I concluded those efforts any serious strategy to improve the minority children were likely to do so. had failed. By 1984, experts estimated that 1/3rd black condition.” In the same year, a report on a conference of black schol- Question: In Family and Nation, you of white youth and 3/4ths of black ars reiterated this position. talk about “the fit between the structure youth then aged seventeen had spent of social problems and the political re- part of their childhood in a broken fam- Question: Were we off-base in our sponses to them.” Would you com- ily. They projected that in ten years, early anti-poverty strategies? ment? 46% of white youth and 87% of black Senator Moynihan: There never was youth would have done so. Finally pub- Senator Moynihan: The civil rights a ‘golden age’ in the antipoverty strug- lic attention was drawn to the feminiza- strategy of the early 1960s fit the civil gle. Almost no social legislation was rights problems of that era very well. tion of poverty, related to the circum- adopted under Kennedy. The only sig- stances of many female-headed But by the mid-1960s, a poor fit be- nificant change in welfare was the Un- single-parent families. tween them began to develop. Entirely employed Parent Program under new problems emerged. As Counselor

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 47 Interviews

AFDC. However, the Elementary and changes in the American family, how- in the number of children living in pov- Secondary Education Act was certainly ever, could hardly have been foreseen. erty between 1970 and 1983 occurred not unimportant. Under Johnson, there in households headed by a woman. In 1983, the Congressional Budget were two critical civil rights acts, but However, only 38% of voters lived Office attributed the high poverty rate these did little more than to codify the to recession, inflation and reduced in- with a child. This pointed to the new pol- constitutional guarantees of the post- itics of redistribution. Federal expendi- come maintenance programs — but for Civil War amendments. Medicare and tures on children were about one-sixth of two decades the principal explanation Medicaid were significant innovations, was the rise of the female-headed the total spending on the elderly. but these were social insurance rather household. And the age bias in the Another issue is the illegitimate than anti-poverty programs. The rest of poverty population is now its major birth rate in the U.S. It is far greater Johnson’s social legislation was limit- feature. It is now children who are the than in any other western nation. We ed. The Great Society years have been poor, more than half of whom are male. can assume that these mothers are those recalled as involving great increases in The poverty rate among the young is most unprepared to raise children and the size of the government and the close to seven times that among the most likely to be overwhelmed by amount of social spending, but this was old. This transformed our notion of child-rearing difficulties, particularly so only to the extent that the Social Se- poverty. when their children reach adolescence. curity program of the 1930s began to McLanahan, writing on single mother- mature and pay out large sums. The In mid-1986, a paper presented at hood in 1989, noted that the prevailing first major increase in the size of gov- the American Association for the Ad- vancement of Science took a look at view in 1979 had been that single ernment was in the Reagan Administra- motherhood produced no harmful ef- tion. poverty among the young and old in six fects on children, but recent research industrialized nations. They found, as I On the other hand, there have been had, that children in the U.S. had high- has been far less optimistic. Task over- more successes than we seem willing to load was a significant factor. er poverty rates and their families had acknowledge. Regarding education, in- lower adjusted mean incomes than the Question: Your have often empha- equalities associated with economic old. They also had a higher poverty rate sized two themes in your books: the status have responded to effort. The than the children in the other countries substantive theme has been poverty; the conclusion is that programs designed to studied — the rate was at least twice as other has been the role of social science encourage equal educational opportu- high in the U.S. I began to think that a in informing and influencing policy. inty contributed to the reduction of dif- universal pattern was emerging. Mature What is your perspective on the results ferences in white-black educational social insurance systems were gradual- of the series of scientific evaluations of achievement, and there were some ly eliminating poverty among the aged, welfare reform strategies in the 1970s gains due to compensatory education but marital instability and tenuous la- and 1980s? programs. Title I of the Elementary and bor markets were leaving children poor Senator Moynihan: There are sever- Secondary Education Act was found to even in affluent countries. be effective for moderately disadvan- al problems with taking them too seri- taged students. Intensive early child- Our divorce rate is the highest in the ously. We overpromised on many of hood education programs clearly pro- world: one and one-half times our near- these strategies. This is endemic to any duced results. None of these programs est competitor, the former Soviet period of political vitality, and may be were panaceas. But they all contributed Union. Urie Bronfenbrenner pointed necessary to support change — but it gains. They were part of a solution, not out that we are the only advanced soci- complicated reform. We cannot dis- the whole solution. ety that has allowed one-quarter of its count, either, the effect of research that youngest children to live in poverty, was conducted as a way to advocate for Question: Your central thesis in Fam- and suffer the long-term consequences a particular strategy, such as the nega- ily and Nation seemed to be that the of that experience. Some experts pre- tive income tax experiments. Also, the rise in the number of single-parent fam- dict that by 2000, 70% of all black research was often so time-limited that ilies headed by women complicated ef- families will be headed by single wom- we learned only about short-term re- forts to reduce poverty, despite some of en. These households are concentrated sults, when a longer period was needed the moderate successes of past pro- in central cities where the poverty rate to see the ultimate impacts. Frequently, grams. You ask, and proceed to answer for all school age children is very high. the “social treatments” were diluted in the question concerning the extent to In fact, the urban poverty rate for all the process of program implementation, which the increase in poverty in the families is increasing, and increasingly and we were measuring the effects of 1980s and 1990s is an artifact of the poverty population is dominated by much weaker treatments than were in- changes in family structure and compo- women and children. tended. sition rather than a result of failed ef- forts to address some of its correlates. Female-headed single-parent house- Furthermore, the outcomes for pro- holds clearly tend to find themselves in gram participants were not always Senator Moynihan: Poverty among situations that produce different life compared with similar individuals not the elderly virtually disappeared due to probabilities. Samuel Preston’s re- exposed to the program, consequently the Social Security program. The search showed that 65% of the increase

48 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Interviews

no one knew, in some cases, what was in arriving at a more enlightened reso- held almost constant at 12%. Between influencing the results — the program lution of dilemmas. 1972 and 1980 the number of black itself may have had little to do with children in female-headed families rose Question: What can we do about them. Also, since scientific method de- nearly 20%, but the number of black growing child poverty? pends on the rejection of competing ex- children on AFDC actually fell by 5%. planations for the results observed, em- Senator Moynihan: First we have to In 1985, Ellwood and Bane analyzed phasis tends to be placed on negative care about the trends. In 1984, 61% of poor adults were women. More than the impact of AFDC receipt on family outcomes. The conclusion of some so- patterns. With one large exception, they cial scientists in the 1980s was that it is three-fourths of all the poor were either could not find any effects. Differences very difficult to design social programs adult women or children. The poverty rate for children in female-headed in welfare benefit levels did not appear that produce noticeably significant pos- to be the primary cause of variation in itive results, by themselves. On the oth- households was 54% compared to family structure across states or over er hand, policy makers often failed to 12.5% for children in all other families. When the value of food stamps, school time. Largely unmeasurable differences see that significant incremental chang- in culture, attitudes and expectations es could trigger substantial gains over lunches, subsidized housing and medi- seemed to account for most of the dif- time. cal benefits are added to cash income, the poverty rate for children drops only ferences in birth rates to unmarried Scientists like Henry Aaron took the women, and in divorce and separation to 15%; for the elderly it drops to 2.6%. position that the increase in the evalua- patterns among families with children. Children represent less than 27% of the tion of programs using experimental population but 40% of the poor. We More important, however, was the find- methodologies was an important devel- ing that the proportion of young black should care enough about this to do opment in evaluation research. He felt men who were employed had deterio- something. more of this kind of research should be rated rapidly over the previous decade, encouraged and supported. And this And what should we do? We must at the same time marriage rates for has come to pass. He viewed existing acknowledge the problem for what it black women had fallen. really is. The issue of an alarming rate research results as demonstrating that The 1984 Panel Study of Income social problems were subtler and more of family disintegration did not escape Dynamics revealed that a quarter of complex than we had thought. In many government or the experts in the 1980s. But Charles Murray, in Losing Ground, American families were poor for one to instances, he suggested, no one social two years between 1969 and 1978, but program could be expected to change and other political conservatives only 2.6% were poor for eight or more individuals or conditions to the extent blamed this on government attempts to reduce poverty. In the process, they years. A major conclusion of the study or in the ways intended by their design was that the welfare system did not fos- in legislation. Aaron’s view was that produced little data to substantiate their ter dependency. The bulk of welfare the Reagan Administration had missed claim. The welfare explosion took place in the 1960s. The change hap- costs could be attributed to the minority an important opportunity when it shut of recipients who remained dependent down social research activities. I would pened once, not in the 1970s or 1980s. for the longer spells. Seventy-five per- certainly agree. The growth in evalua- It has not been reversed. And the in- creases took place in programs that af- cent of all spells of welfare receipt be- tion research activities reflected a genu- gan with a relationship change. Only a ine desire to introduce a measure of fect the poor least. In 1984, David Ell- fraction could be traced to decreases in conceptual discipline into the formu- wood, now Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation in HHS, stated earnings from employment. The previ- lation of social policy. ous relationship between dependency, that a review of the data could only There is enough of a knowledge income and employment no longer held lead to a rejection of the increasingly base, both theoretical and practical, to fashionable view that poverty programs true. allow us to anticipate what the present were the source of poverty problems. Looking at the record, government era looks like. We need to hold firm to If AFDC had been breaking up fami- had developed policies that benefited that. The world does not defy under- those better off among the poor. The standing. And what can be understood lies and encouraging the formation of programs that appeared to work for can sometimes be modified. Ultimately single parent families, the number of children on the program would not those with the longer spells of welfare, the choices among government priori- such as “supported work,” proved very ties and strategies are political deci- have remained constant through the expensive, and again their successes sions, but social scientists can have an period when family structure changed the most. Ellwood’s analysis showed were limited. Furthermore, they de- important role in shaping and inform- manded a great deal of client motiva- ing the political debate. They can iso- clearly that the fraction of all children tion and discipline. Consequently gov- late the important questions, and pro- who were living in female-headed households had increased dramatically ernment avoided these programs in the vide information about the direction 1980s, and behavior that was already and extent of the consequences likely since 1972, from 14% to almost 20%. self-destructive simply persisted and associated with particular alternatives. During the same period, the fraction of got worse. Therefore they can assist policy makers all children in homes receiving AFDC

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 49 Interviews

My position in Family and Nation was since it is related to family integration eration of poverty issues was delayed that family disorganization had become and stability. and retarded. We understand more a general feature of the American pop- about the role of changing family struc- The issue of employment is, of ulation, not just of an appropriately ture, employment, underemployment course, critical. Unemployment rates of sensitive minority community. The 50% among urban youth are unaccept- and dislocation, wage reduction and question was whether competing and other causes of poverty. Openly appre- able, even in terms of economic effi- antagonistic factions in American soci- ciating and discussing the historical ciency. Wages in employment are a ma- ety and politics could find any common jor issue. Hourly wages in 1985 were patterns that have brought us to our ground for developing a national fami- present situation is finally gaining po- just what they were in 1968! In eigh- ly policy. The major organizing princi- litical respectability. This is a critical teen years, average hourly wages in ple of such a policy had to be answers manufacturing had increased only 18 basis for developing solutions. to questions about income distribution, cents. Wages declined from a peak in not about the welfare system. 1973. In the space of a few years the Editor’s Note Question: Would any viable national incomparable growth in American soci- family policy resolve the problems we ety that began during World War II had This interview in the spring of 1994 must now address — or is such a policy come to an end. Our expectations for with Senator Moynihan reflects signifi- only one dimension of a solution to more or less steady growth had been a cant ideas in two of his books, Family these problems? prominent dimension of national char- and Nation and Pandemonium, and in acter. In the history of European settle- recent journal articles regarding poverty Senator Moynihan: A credible fami- ment of North America, there had nev- and welfare. For those interested in ly policy will insist that responsibility er been a sixteen-year period, as in learning more about Senator Moyni- begins with the individual, then the 1986, in which there was no rise in real han’s views, please see the selected family, and only then the local commu- list of his publications below: median family income. nity, the larger community, and the so- Pandemonium (1993). ciety. The perception is growing that The other side of this issue is the the minority community itself must ex- concentration of wealth. One quarter of “Defining Deviancy Down,” in The American Scholar, (Winter 1993). ert a stronger effort to resolve the prob- the wealth in the U.S. is possessed by lems of the African American and His- two percent of American families. Me- Foreword to The Prisoners of Charity, a panic underclass. And leaders in these dian household net worth in 1984, for monograph of The Public Policy In- communities are responding. But gov- example, was a surprisingly low stitute, Albany, NY (1993). ernment policies intended to address $32,667, with home ownership ac- “How the Great Society ‘Destroyed the other issues, issues which may affect counting for 41% of total net worth. American Family’” in The Public In- poverty, should be examined for their There is a distinct racial imbalance. terest (Summer 1992). impact on family policy. Whites have nearly twice the income of On the Law of Nations (1990). blacks but twelve times the wealth. The Question: What other strategies Came the Revolution: Argument in the median net worth of black households should be subsumed under a national Reagan Era (1988). family policy? in 1984 was $3,397; the worth of black Family and Nation (1987). female heads of households was $671; Senator Moynihan: The federal gov- the worth of black female heads with Ethnicity: Theory and Experience (Edit- ernment is demonstrably good at redis- incomes under $10,000 was $88. At the ed with Nathan Glazer, 1975). tributing income — such as through the same time, real incomes declined for all Toward a National Urban Policy (Editor, tax system, through the Social Security families except two-parent black fami- 1970) system. An expanded Earned Income lies whose incomes rose 3.9%. Dan- Beyond the Melting Pot (With Nathan Tax Credit and Child Support Enforce- ziger and Gottschalk pointed out that Glazer, 1970) ment program are also redistributive. the Census had confirmed what Wilson On Understanding Poverty (editor, Even federal work programs for teen- had claimed earlier in The Declining 1969). age fathers might contribute to income Significance of Race that we must now Maximum Feasible Misunderstanding redistribution — that is, programs that look to social class factors if we are to (1969). are compulsory if child support has understand contemporary poverty. been mandated, with wages shared be- Question: tween father and mother. Redistributive How optimistic are you strategies such as these may be the about resolving growing poverty? ‘common ground’ that will be accept- Senator Moynihan: We are now fi- able to both liberals and conservatives. nally acknowledging how serious and complex this problem is, and how diffi- The federal government is also good cult it may be to solve. That is a signifi- at enforcement. Strategies to reduce drug trafficking and abuse must be cant step forward from the long period behind us where public policy consid- considered part of a family policy,

50 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Interviews

An Interview with David T. Ellwood

Editorial Introduction Mr. Ellwood is well respected for his Corporation. He is also a member of penetrating analyses and extensive re- the Advisory Board for the Edna David T. Ellwood, a Harvard labor search on poverty and welfare, and on McConnell Clark Foundation. economist, is the Clinton Administra- social policies and program strategies David Ellwood is the recipient of the tion’s Assistant Secretary for Planning designed to assist poor families. In George Kershaw Award of the Associa- and Evaluation in the U.S. Department 1986, Mr. Ellwood served as a panel tion for Public Policy Analysis and Man- of Health and Human Services. He is member on the National Academy of agement for his outstanding contribu- the principal advisor to the Secretary Sciences’ Committee on the Status of tions to the area of social policy. His for policy analysis, policy development Black Americans, as a member of Gov- book Poor Support was selected by the and evaluation. He also serves as co- ernor Cuomo’s Task Force on Poverty New York Times Book Review as one chair of the President’s Working Group and Welfare, and on former Governor of the most important books of 1988. It on Welfare Reform, Family Support and Babbitt’s Project on the Welfare of was chosen also by the Policy Studies Independence. Families. He has been heavily involved Organization as the outstanding book Prior to his appointment, Mr. Ell- with a number of major national re- for that year. Mr. Ellwood’s research wood was Malcolm Wiener Professor of search projects, including The Panel and policy work is widely credited with Public Policy at the John F. Kennedy Study of Income Dynamics and re- significantly influencing the develop- School of Public Affairs, and since 1992 search conducted by the National Bu- ment of the Family Support Act of 1988, served also as academic dean of the reau of Economic Research, Mathe- the report prepared by the National School and co-director of the Malcolm matic Policy Research, and the Commission on Children, and state so- Wiener Center for Social Policy. Manpower Demonstration Research cial welfare legislation.

Question: In studying your work over ety. But we are realizing that any policy which government’s role is to help peo- the years, a central theme seems clear that ignores these issues cannot provide ple make it on their own. — you have insisted that an under- genuine solutions. We have taken important steps in standing of the causes of poverty must Question: Do you see welfare reform the 1980s to come closer to this agen- direct antipoverty efforts, and therefore initiatives coming any closer, in the da. These steps will not raise wages, welfare policy. Your perspective on 1990s, to responding to the real causes eliminate child care responsibilities, re- ‘causes’ is very informative. In your of poverty? inforce and strengthen families, or inte- 1988 book, Poor Support, for example, grate the poor into the economic main- you stated that scientific methods can Mr. Ellwood: Yes, I think so. No one stream. The goal must not be simply to tell us much about the nature of pover- seriously expects government to elimi- nate assistance to the poor. Neither is make the welfare system function bet- ty, but ultimate decisons about its caus- ter. It should be to replace welfare with es and how to resolve it are inevitably government likely to support a guaran- something that is more responsive to tied to our societal values and expecta- teed annual income, or a negative in- come tax. These strategies have not the problems actually faced by the poor tions. Could you elaborate on this point — a system that ensures that everyone of view? proven to be consistent with core pub- who exercises reasonable responsibility lic norms and values in the U.S. The Mr. Ellwood: Let me illustrate. If we movement is more toward helping peo- can make it. expect that two-parent families with ple help themselves, with both the per- Question: What is your view of the children should be able to escape pov- son and the government having respon- main problems the poor face? erty through full-time employment, sibilities. We are moving toward the ‘the cause’ we are concerned about is Mr. Ellwood: I find it helpful to look social contract Senator Moynihan insti- low wages and the unavailability of separately at the problems of three tuted within the Family Support Act, in large groups: 1) families in which the jobs. If we feel that a single parent which government gives something and should not have to do the job of two adults are already doing a great deal to the recipient gives something back. parents, ‘the cause’ that should interest keep themselves afloat economically — us is the lack of support from the ab- The parameters of this exchange re- that is, two-parent families with one or sent parent. In developing policies to spond more closely to the causes of two full-time year-round workers and deal with poverty, we must and do poverty, and to our values of work, re- single parent families in which the par- make judgments about ourselves and sponsibilitity, family and opportunity. ent works full or part-time and tries to society. One appeal of welfare has been This movement represents the begin- balance the dual roles of nurturer and that it appears to remove the need to ning of a change from a system of sup- provider; 2) families who are suffering determine the causes and nature of pov- port that is designed simply to provide temporary difficulties because of a job erty, and to avoid decisions about what assistance until a person is no longer loss, a change in family structure or cir- is expected of the poor in such a soci- poor, to a more activist conception in cumstances, or a personal problem; and

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 51 Interviews

3) families in which parents have not Based on these values, Americans ment insurance — all of these came been able to find work or need some have expected people to be held re- into existence. Training and education form of long-term support. sponsible for their activities, families to policies were seen as ‘human invest- provide for themselves, two parents to ment’ measures, and therefore did not The first group ought to be encour- aged and rewarded. Instead they have be needed to perform multiple family conflict with our core social values. functions, and people to be treated with often lacked medical protection. Or Unfortunately, these policies did not compassion, fairness and dignity. The they fall into the welfare system where adequately ensure economic security they are penalized for working, which sense of community leads us to prefer for the employable poor. Their lives to integrate rather than isolate the poor, imposes extra demands on them and were not dramatically transformed by a but our compassion is mediated by the generally stigmatizes them. The treat- modest amount of services and train- ment of this group is one of the most belief in autonomy and family, conse- ing. Academics and policymakers con- quently we tend to consider more wor- disturbing features of our current sys- cluded that cash transfers had to be ex- thy of help those more like ourselves, tem. panded. And a new goal emerged: and those whose difficulties appear to government should guarantee a mini- The second group needs help, but be outside their control. mum standard of living for all citizens. only until they get on their feet. Present policy often lets them fend for them- These values translate to goals for The negative income tax seemed a logi- public policy: encouraging self-support cal extension of the view that the poor selves or gives them an inadequate lev- and independence through hard work; were victims of an unfair, unjust social el of cash assistance, services and train- ing, and little incentive to regain their assuring that people are responsible for and economic system. For the first their own activities; and strengthening time, antipoverty strategy supported the independence. families and integrating the poor while working poor. Assistance to the third group is usu- protecting their dignity and security. This strategy was consistent with ally cash welfare assistance, over ex- Recent work on poverty issues has our values regarding family strength tended periods, when they really need work more than welfare. emphasized these values, and it is easy and stability. It was endorsed by most to trace the chronology of policy choic- social scientists, particularly econo- Question: In Poor Support you pro- es as they have reflected more empha- mists, because of its simplicity and ap- posed that programs that bring closely- sis on certain of these values than on parent equity. But the public did not held values into conflict are inevitably others. The challenge is to design so- support it, and Senator Moynihan’s volatile and controversial — and that cial policies that are consistent with all Family Assistance Plan, which applied the American welfare system has been these values, or that at least minimize this concept, was never adopted. AFDC a prime example of this phenomenon. the conflicts among them. was expanded and ‘work incentives’ You commented that our intense empa- Question: incorporated, and attitudes changed. thy and desire for fairness, and our What trends in the last three decades do you feel have affected But AFDC remained primarly a pro- sense of community tend to conflict gram for single mothers, a group still the value tradeoff? with equally strong beliefs in the im- not expected to work. And even after portance of material prosperity, work, Mr. Ellwood: The policies of 1960 this expansion of AFDC, the welfare family and independence, which reduc- were generally compatible with the val- budget for the nonelderly and nondis- es support for welfare-specific solu- ues of autonomy, work, family and abled remained small — only 11% of tions to poverty. You devote a chapter community. Welfare was only a very all social welfare expenditures and of the book to the major value tenets small expenditure, spent on single roughly 1.6% of the total national in- you feel influence our view of welfare. mothers who still were not expected to come. Could you comment on this? work. Between 1960 and 1976, we dis- The late ’60s saw a booming econo- covered hunger and discrimination, and Mr. Ellwood: I saw recurring themes my which benefited the poor through in public and academic discussions of fought an unpopular war, in one of the most remarkable periods of economic increased access to employment and American beliefs. Four basic tenets higher wages, and an expansion of pro- growth in American history. It was seemed to underlie these debates: 1) the grams to improve their situation. But easy to view the poor as victims. responsibility and autonomy of the in- wages stopped growing in the early dividual — that is, American individu- But by the end of the 1960s an intel- 1970s. Families responded by sending alism, 2) the virtue of work — that is, lectual revolution had occurred in our more members into the labor market respect for hard work in providing for thinking about poverty. It solidified the and reducing their costs. In this cli- families, 3) the primacy of the family — definition of the poor as the products of mate, welfare expenditures found less that is, in the socialization and education disadvantage, oppression and isolation. justification. of children, in ensuring family material Job Corps, Head Start, the Elementary Two additional trends were under- and social well-being, and 4) the desire and Secondary Education Act, desegre- mining the legitimacy of the welfare for and sense of community and opportu- gation and busing, urban and communi- nity — that is, compassion and sympathy ty development organizations, medicare system. One was the dramatic increase in families headed by single mothers. for others, and a sense of belongingness and medicaid, and extended unemploy- to a larger unit than the family.

52 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Interviews

Another was the rise in mothers partic- ipating in the workforce. Also, the re- Certain basic tenets underlie discussions of American sults of the negative income tax experi- beliefs: the autonomy of the individual, the virtue of ments were suggesting that this kind of strategy would reduce slightly the work work, the primacy of the family, and the desire for and effort of recipients. Not unrelated, sense of community. These values translate to goals AFDC benefits in most states were not for public welfare policy. The challenge is to design increased after 1976, not even adjusted for inflation, allowing their real value policies that are consistent with all of these values, or per family to fall by 30-50%. And that at least minimize the conflicts among them. workfare became acceptable. David Ellwood Carter’s welfare proposal expanded in Poor Support training and other kinds of human in- vestment programs but the public no longer wanted to spend the money Over time, the policies that have entirely in a two-parent home will nev- needed to implement it. Ronald Re- agan’s clear agenda was simply to cut been most politically viable have re- er be poor during childhood. The vast flected society’s basic expectations and majority of children who spend time in welfare spending. Therefore by 1984, tried to link strategies to causes. For a single-parent home will experience welfare expenditures per poor person had fallen dramatically. By this time, example, Social Security goes to the poverty. There is a continuing debate disabled, the widowed and the elderly. over the extent to which the changing public attitudes had grown hostile to Unemployment Insurance goes to those structure of the family contributes to welfare, attributing increasing family breakdown and dependency to welfare who have been unemployed and only poverty, but it is clear that family struc- for a short period. But we cannot as ture is one of the most important influ- policies. This was the case even though easily decide what the goals of welfare ences. there was abundant empirical evidence programs should be, or who should that these policies had vastly reduced Question: What patterns and trends participate. I suggested optimistically, poverty among the elderly, and im- have been most significant? in 1988, that if we look at the why rath- proved the health of the poor, and that Mr. Ellwood: Four major social, eco- they had not been the main cause of er than at the who of poverty, we ought to be able to come closer to the Ameri- nomic and cultural developments were family breakup. The problems of the can ideal of a guarantee — that is, a occurring as family patterns changed: poor worsened the most, and family the entrance of more women into the structure changed the most, at the same guarantee that people who strive and meet reasonable social responsibilities labor market; the diminishing earnings time means-tested programs were being will be able to achieve, at a minimum, a of men; less liberal welfare benefits; drastically cut by the Reagan Adminis- and changing attitudes toward sex, tration. If rising benefits had made modest level of economic security and dignity. This is consistent with Ameri- marriage and family life. Much has things worse, falling benefits should can expectations for opportunity, inde- been written about the first. Let’s talk have made them better. The value con- about some of the other patterns. flict was now severe, and thwarted pendence and prosperity. changes in social policy for almost a Question: You have commented that When women began entering the la- decade. the first and most obvious question in bor force in sizable numbers the econo- understanding the causes and nature of my was growing. But in 1973 the econ- Assisting the poor was becoming in- family poverty is “Why is the structure omy stalled and has never regained its creasingly problematic. Society could momentum. Workers faced a weak no longer support the idea that only of the family changing?” What has your own research, and the research of economy, a large increase in the num- those unable to work should be helped. other social scientists, led you to under- ber of women and young people com- It could not agree on who should be de- peting for jobs, increased foreign com- fined as unable to work. Nor could it stand about the feminization of pover- ty? petition, and a changing mix of accept the view that government should industries. guarantee every citizen’s economic se- Mr. Ellwood: The statistics have been curity. We were left with a set of social dramatic. In 1960 only 7% of families As a result, the median earnings of policies that satisfied no one. And they with children were female-headed. By full-time year-round workers have not failed to respond to the roots of pover- 1985 the figure was nearly 20%. And grown since the early 1970s. Between ty: limited income, low wages, a lack of these data understate the magnitude of 1955 and 1973, the median income of employment, the need to balance eco- the change. The majority of children men grew steadily and substantially. nomic security with the socialization of born in the U.S. today will spend some Then suddenly the growth stopped. By children, and a lack of education and part of their childhood living in a sin- 1985 the income of the typical full-time opportunity. gle-parent home. The research shows male worker was below the 1970 level. that the vast majority of children raised In addition, more and more young men

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 53 Interviews

were not working at all. The earnings 1987 was below 20%. Attitudes toward tility, the never-married portion of the of the cohort of men aged 25-34 in single women having children changed. nonwhite population is growing fast. 1949 grew an average of 57% in the Attitudes toward divorce changed. Sex Teenage pregnancy is another ele- next decade. Their earnings began to outside marriage had become more ac- ment of the trends. In 1984, about a fall slightly over the decade following ceptable and marriage less important. quarter of all single parents had their 1973. The men aged 35-44 in 1973 saw All of these forces pushed in the di- first child as teenagers. However, most their real earnings fall by 15% in the rection of altered family structures. of them were married at the time of the ten years that followed. The typical Each trend tended to increase the inde- birth or shortly afterwards. Approxi- family that wanted to increase its stan- pendent economic position of women mately 40% of welfare dollars go to dard of living, as earlier families had and decrease the economic status of women who were teen-age mothers. expected to do and had done, now men. Together they generally made They fare worse in the labor market, needed to produce more workers to ac- marriage seem less essential. In fact, stay on welfare longer, and may have complish this. For single-parent fami- the marriage rate plummeted, as did the more difficulty in raising their children. lies, or those where one parent stayed birth rate, and divorce rates doubled Eighty percent of teen-age mothers re- home, the decade following 1973 was from 1960 to 1980. port that their pregnancies were un- much more severe. In white families, the increased di- wanted. The decline in marriages has This trend was particularly serious meant that the proportion of babies vorce rate meant that more and more for minority men. The unemployment born out of wedlock to teen-agers has children were living with a separated or rate for African Americans and other divorced parent. Existing families were risen. minority men aged 20-24 steadily in- being split apart and new ones were Question: You have proposed that it creased, reaching almost 30% by 1983. slow to form. During the period when is useful to study the roots and nature Many dropped out of the labor market the proportion of white children in fe- of poverty for three major groups: two- altogether, which magnified this effect. male-headed families rose from 5% to parent families; single-parent families; In 1965, Senator Moynihan was one of 15%, the proportion of nonwhite chil- and the ghetto poor. You pinpoint la- the first to suggest that family structure dren in female-headed families also tri- bor market problems as the primary was likely to be closely related to the pled. However, because the rate started cause of poverty for two-parent fami- economic status of men. William Julius at 15%, its tripling meant that nearly lies. For single-parent families, you see Wilson later suggested that the dramat- half the nonwhite children were living more complex problems: employment ic decrease in marriages among blacks in a female-headed household. problems, problems associated with was related to a dramatic change in the And there was another complication. dual responsibilities, and the problem number of “marriageable” men — that of an adverse welfare system. Regard- is, men with sustaining employment. The rate of births to unmarried non- ing the ghetto poor, who represent a Much evidence has accumulated to white women has been higher, histori- cally, than for unmarried white women. very small proportion of the American support this thesis, but questions about poverty population, you have suggest- the relationship between these influenc- Given the overall trends I just de- ed that there are serious dangers inher- es remain unsettled. scribed, one would have expected out- of-wedlock births for nonwhites to ent in a simplistic and ill-informed de- As for the role of welfare benefits, bate about the causes of and possible have skyrocketed, but they did not. In no highly regarded study has suggested solutions to ‘underclass’ poverty. fact, the birthrates for this group that the receipt of welfare played a cen- dropped considerably. At the same Would you comment on this perspec- tral part in altering family structure. tive? time, however, the birth rates for mar- However, surveys revealed significant ried nonwhite women declined. As a re- Mr. Ellwood: First, we have to ask attitude changes related to the women’s sult, out-of-wedlock births as a per- what we are we talking about when we liberation movement, which led to centage of all births to nonwhite say ‘ghetto poor’. If we accept the U.S. women breaking away from traditional women rose from 22% in 1960 to about Census definition of poverty areas, less roles. They also revealed a great shift 50% in the 1980s. In other words, the than 40% of all poor people lived in in attitudes regarding sexual activity. reason for the changed proportion of poor neighborhoods or communities in For example, a National Opinion Re- nonwhite children born out-of-wedlock 1980. But this definition is too broad. search Center survey showed that the is not that more and more babies were A more natural definition of ghetto proportion of adults who believed in being born to unmarried nonwhite poverty area is a neighborhood with a total sexual abstinence before marriage women. The reason was that fewer and poverty rate of 40% in a moderate- had dropped from 80% in 1963 to 30% fewer babies were being born to mar- sized or large city. Using this defini- in 1975. For college students it dropped ried nonwhite women. They are marry- tion, less than 7% of the poor lived in a from 55% in 1967 to 11% in the early ing less often and having fewer babies big city ghetto in 1980. The black ghet- 1970s. Almost half of first-time brides when they do marry. This trend is a re- to poor would represent only 5%. Rick- in the period 1960-64 reported that flection of marriage and childbirth etts and Sawhill tried defining the un- they had been virgins; the figure in postponed or foregone. Because of the derclass in terms of concentrations of dramatic decline in marriage and fer- behavioral problems, such as the num-

54 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Interviews

ber of drop-outs, unemployed prime- mental reason, that it primarily treats groups within the poverty population. age males, welfare recipients, and fe- symptoms rather than causes. We have to continue to learn. Those male heads of households. Based on Mr. Ellwood: I have been adamant of us in the policy arena do not pretend this definition, these neighborhoods about that. It does not address employ- to know what all the pieces are. What represented less than 10% of the pover- ment and wage problems, or the special we intend to do is to put a change pro- ty population in 1980. Over 75% of the problems of single parents. It does not cess in place and work toward a very residents of ghetto neighborhoods are address medical costs, or the costs of different system. African American, and these ghettos child care for working parents. It does contain a larger percentage of long- I honestly think this is our last not even provide adequately for mini- term poor than other areas. This ex- chance for substantial welfare reform mum living costs for those unable to — not because the impetus for reform plains the high public visibility of the work. It creates a very strong ‘us vs. underclass, but we must understand will disappear, but because there will them’ mentality. And it denies recipi- what the empirical information is tell- not be enough funds to accomplish it. ents incentives for working and earn- Also, there is so much pressure now to ing us. ing. The message of change is employ- focus welfare reform efforts on respon- The most productive and useful ap- ment and sustaining earnings, and the sibility alone, rather than on opportuni- proach to ghetto poverty was suggested reinforcement of basic American val- ty and responsibility together, that we by William Julius Wilson. He says we ues. The goal is not to mix work and have to be concerned about seizing this must put aside the debate over whether welfare, but to allow poor families to moment to change the system more in underclass poverty is caused by cultural regain control over their lives, and to line with recurrent American themes or situational factors and try to under- achieve some level of real indepen- and norms that have guided and contin- stand what shapes the attitudes, expec- dence. ue to influence American society. tations and behavior of ghetto resi- The JOBS Program represents an dents. He focuses on discrimination, Question: What is your current think- important beginning. It was the first economic deprivation, the sheer con- ing regarding an Administration plan genuine redirection in terms of atti- for welfare reform? centration of poverty, isolation from tudes and expectations. The idea be- traditional role models, inadequate ed- hind new reforms is to learn about, Mr. Ellwood: There has been an ucation, collapsing labor market op- build on and expand JOBS. In this re- overriding vision that we ought to do portunities, the emergence of an under- spect, there is much to be said for more to help people help themselves, ground economy, and a welfare system changing the culture of poverty and expect more in return. We are de- that fails to positively reinforce, reward through high saturation and participa- signing welfare reform to give people and encourage work. tion in a JOBS-type program. Some re- back the dignity and control that comes Charles Murray’s simplistic solution cent successful programs have empha- from work and independence. It is to ghetto poverty was that we dissolve sized this level of intensity and in- about reinforcing work and family and the welfare system and cut off the life- volvement, such as Riverside, SWIM, opportunity and responsibility. I be- line to the 40% of ghetto families who LEAP, and the Teen Parent Demonstra- lieve ultimately welfare reform will re- are on AFDC. Few policy makers take tion. These programs offer a lot but quire changing almost everything about this option seriously. On the other also insist on something, with sanctions the way we provide support to strug- hand, although reducing welfare bene- that reinforce expectations. gling families. fits will increase life difficulties for Recent research suggests that the To achieve this vision, we are focus- these families, there is something of a major problem is long-term depen- ing on four main areas: consensus that the current welfare sys- dence on the welfare system, even n Making welfare into a program of tem does not improve hope or confi- though that dependence may be only dence, and does not give recipients an transitional assistance, followed by intermittent. Ninety-one percent of adequate income floor or reward their work. young mothers who enter the welfare efforts to become economically inde- system leave within five years, but 70% n pendent. It even penalizes them for try- Making work pay, so parents can of those return. The problem is usually ing. In that sense, the present system support their families through work. low wages, and lack of medical and does not reflect or support commonly child care. Child support from absent n Promoting parental responsibility by held societal values and expectations. fathers can make a difference. More improving child support enforce- That’s why I think we must replace the skilled and higher-wage employment ment and discouraging teenage par- current welfare system, not simply re- can make a difference. But one size enthood. form it. does not fit all. The new system must n Reinventing government assistance Question: You have pointed out con- be flexible in terms of permitting con- sistently in your writing and in your siderable local discretion in the imple- by coordinating and simplifying in- new position at HHS that the current mentation of programs within the new come support programs, improving welfare system fails for a very funda- framework, and must respond to the incentives, and focusing on perfor- circumstances and needs of diverse mance rather than process.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 55 Interviews

To make welfare a truly transitional throughout the year, rather than as a Editorial Note system, focused on helping people lump sum at tax time. Health care re- move into the workforce, I think ev- form is another essential building block The above interview was completed eryone who receives cash support will in making work pay, so that people do in the spring of 1994. For those inter- be expected to do something to help not have to stay on welfare for fear of ested in gaining a deeper and more de- themselves and their community. As losing their health insurance. Finally, tailed understanding of David Ellwood’s soon as people begin receiving assis- we see child care as an important part ideas, please see these selected publi- tance, they will start on the path to self- of making work pay that should be ad- cations: sufficiency, including activities such as dressed in welfare reform. Welfare Realities: From Rhetoric to Re- job search, or education and training form (With Mary Jo Bane). Forth- To promote parental responsibility, coming in 1994. when needed. These services will be we will strengthen the child support en- closely coordinated with existing main- “The Changing Structure of American forcement system to ensure that stream education and training pro- Families” (Forthcoming in a confer- awards are established in every case, ence volume for the U.S.-Japan grams, including current and new La- that fair award levels are maintained, bor Department programs (the Job Conference on the Family held in and that awards owed are in fact col- Training Partnership Act and theWork- 1992.) lected. force Security Act), School-to-Work “Ghetto Poverty” (With Paul Jar- programs, and vocational and postsec- Welfare reform will also focus on gowsky). Working Paper, Malcolm ondary education. preventing teenage parenthood, and on Wiener Center for Social Policy, Har- promoting responsibility among those vard University, 1990. Our thinking is that people who are teenagers who do have children. Minor “Family Change Among Black Ameri- able to work will be limited to two mothers on welfare will receive special cans,” (With Jonathon Crane) in years of cash assistance, and most peo- case management services and will be Journal of Economic Perspectives, ple will be expected to enter employ- required to live at home and stay in 1990. ment well before the two years are up. school to receive income support. We Welfare Reform (Edited with Phoebe Those people who are still unable to may also provide fairer support for Cottingham), 1989. find work at the end of two years will two-parent families by eliminating or be required to work in a private sector, Poor Support: Poverty and the Ameri- reducing the stringent eligibility rules can Family, 1988. community service or public sector job. that currently apply to two-parent, but We are thinking of these as real, work- “Poverty in America,” in Fighting Pover- not to single-parent families. for-wages jobs. We will design the pro- ty: What Works and What Doesn’t gram to favor unsubsidized work and to We will reinvent government assis- edited by R. Freeman and C. Ichnio- ensure that subsidized jobs are short- tance by simplifying and coordinating wsky, 1986. term and non-displacing. AFDC and Food Stamps rules to en- “Single Mothers and Their Living Ar- courage work, family formation and as- rangements” (With Mary Jo Bane). The Administration has already tak- set accumulation. In addition to incen- Report for the Office of Planning and en major steps to make work pay. A tives for clients, incentives will be Evaluation, U.S. Department of major expansion of the Earned Income designed to bring about change in the Health and Human Services, 1985. Tax Credit (EITC) was put in place last culture of welfare offices, with an em- “Youth Employment in the 1970s,” year to help low-income families, and phasis on work and performance. (With David Wise) in American Fam- efforts will be made to help families re- ilies and the Economy edited by R. ceive the EITC on a regular basis Nelson and F. Skidmore, 1983. “Teenage Unemployment,” in The Youth Labor Market Problem edited by M. Feldstein, R. Freeman and D. Wise, 1982.

56 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Evaluation Issues and Activities

Editorial Introduction new study focusing on changes in Eu- and operated with considerable discre- ropean ‘welfare state’ concepts. At the tion by states in local communities. This section of Issue #10 focuses more national, state and local level, the em- specifically on welfare system issues. phasis is on welfare reform efforts fund- At the international level, we review a ed primarily by the federal government

At The International Level What Is Happening to Welfare Systems in Western Europe? nn The Evolution of Changes in Europe’s Economies At the same time, their unemployment A substantial analysis in the New rate is close to ten percent. European Welfare York Times in the spring of 1993 pro- Greater social need accompanies States vided an important overview of the in- higher unemployment and inflation in terrelated changes that have been oc- Europe, and is taxing EC member The European ‘welfare state’ con- curring in Europe in the 1990s: states’ expensive social safety nets. cept has held a persistent fascination A special dynamism had been pro- These social security systems have pro- for American social welfare specialists vided unusual protection to individuals jected for European economies as they since World War II. Early on, propo- and families by American standards. nents of the concept viewed it as a su- moved toward a single market in 1992. But instead, Europe’s main economic In the summer of 1993, for instance, preme anti-poverty strategy, a universal contributors — Germany, France, Brit- the Ministry of Social Affairs of the and comprehensive approach that did not specifically target particular groups ain and Italy — were experiencing a Netherlands reported that about eigh- much higher rate of unemployment teen percent of the workforce was re- and therefore avoided the stigmatiza- than the U.S. or Japan, and inflation ceiving disability pay — including pay tion of the poor. More intensive con- temporary studies of European welfare across these countries was ranging for the effects of work stress. Social from below two percent to more than welfare for the ill, elderly and unem- state models, however, have revealed eighteen percent. EC members on the ployed across the EC now represents a significant differences across members of the evolving Economic Community economic periphery trying to link their high economic cost. In Spain, for every economies with the more affluent ones individual working there is one receiv- — in how the welfare state is defined, began to stall. Meanwhile, new Europe- ing a social security benefit. the way in which it is being implement- ed, and predictions about its future. an governments remained dependent on The same models that safeguarded the EC’s generation of economic Western Europe from the extremes of This article reviews a new book on growth and jobs. As unemployment European anti-poverty approaches, poverty have begun to affect economic rose, European investment slowed. progress. Most of these social welfare Comparing Welfare States: Britain in This malaise, experts have proposed, models finance social insurance pro- International Context by Allan Co- chrane and John Clarke of The Open differs from the high-wage demands, grams through payroll taxes on workers low productivity and subsequent stag- and employers. As unemployment ris- University in the U.K. The authors’ in- nation that occurred a decade ago. High es, there are fewer paying for social tent is to clarify differences in social welfare policies in Britain, Hong Kong, German interest rates, intended to low- benefits and more needing them. The er inflation, have been a significant in- financial impact of the shrinkage of Eu- Ireland, Germany and Sweden, to sug- fluence in this recent slump. This situa- ropean economies has been severe. gest how these policies are related to the processes through which individu- tion is especially problematic given the As American social policy draws influx of thousands of immigrants from als and groups receive or are denied ac- more heavily from European approach- Eastern Europe and the former Soviet cess to full “welfare citizenship,” and es, Europeans are growing more anx- to identify the general direction of change Union. For example, Greece is experi- ious about their welfare systems. Swe- encing an unprecedented movement of in European social welfare thinking. Pri- den, the most ample provider of social individuals and families from Albania, or to this review, however, it is useful to welfare benefits, recently cut the range provide a context. Poland and the former Soviet republics. and cost of welfare programs and re-

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 57 Evaluation Issues and Activities

stricted eligibility. Italy has done the drawing insights from international portant factor in the provision of wel- same. France has lowered retirement trends to inform social policy. Al- fare benefits, but not in the direction of payments, reduced medical reimburse- though the book’s primary purpose is a redistribution or equalization of re- ments, and shortened the period during to provide information to inform Brit- sources. These models are more com- which workers can receive jobless ben- ish welfare policy, it reaches more gen- mon in countries in which Catholic po- efits. Across Europe, more conservative eral conclusions about developments in litical parties are strong, parties on the and cost-cutting strategies are being in- European welfare policy which have left are weak, traditional family values stituted, despite significant protest. implications for the U.S. as it struggles are firmly entrenched, and there is a with another round of welfare reform. history of “absolutism and authoritari- European experts are claiming that anism.” The state is expected to inter- benefit programs add enormously to Diversity Across Welfare States wage costs, tend to reduce the econom- vene only when the family cannot seem to resolve its problems. Austria, ic competitiveness of employers, and Cochrane and Clarke define ‘welfare France, Germany and Italy are consid- reduce new hiring. state’ very generally, as the involve- ment of the state in providing a range ered to fall into this category. For example, in France an employer of social security benefits and social Liberal welfare regimes: Those paying a minimum wage of about $810 services, excluding the ‘full employ- per month will have to incur total wage which emphasize market-based social ment’ characteristic that was typically insurance and the use of means-testing costs of about $1,420 per month when included in the definition. They ac- as a tool for the distribution of benefits. counting wages and payroll taxes for knowledge that most welfare states of- social security programs. A German Benefits tend to be limited and targeted fer “a mixed economy of welfare” — to the most-poor, because the assump- manufacturuer paying a worker $26 per that is, a public/private mix, and a mix tion is that higher benefit levels will re- hour may end up providing a total of more-to-less formalized providers, package of wages and benefits in which duce work incentives. These models are networks and services. Much of the highly differentiated and stratified, benefits amount to forty-six percent of book details the authors’ study of the characterized by a combination of 1) a the total amount. In August, 1993, the different mixes that characterize partic- Organization for Economic Coopera- relatively similar level of poverty ular European nations, and the policy among welfare recipients, 2) welfare tion and Development (OECD) pub- implications of this diversity. For ex- for the non-poor that responds to mar- lished a report stating that the generous ample, their assumption is that changes unemployment benefits system in many ket forces, and 3) a dualism between in the mix may be encouraging a disen- the two, based on politics and social European countries were likely contrib- titlement of certain groups, or may be class. Examples of these models are the uting to long-term unemployment rath- requiring more responsibilities on the er than to the provision of temporary U.S., Canada and Australia. part of certain providers and/or benefi- support to job searchers. Social-democratic welfare models: ciaries. They are interested in such is- Economic and labor market changes sues as whether disentitlement may be Those characterized by universalistic and egalitarian principles, and higher of this kind have pressed European buried within new efforts to privatize standards for equalizing life quality. governments to propose a shrinkage in social provision. their welfare states. Nevertheless, such Benefits tend to be provided at levels In comparing these mixes, the au- that are perceived to be acceptable to shrinkage is likely to occur slowly, giv- thors turn first to analyses of interna- the middle class, with the working class en the long-term bonding between Eu- tional data sets, such as those available ropeans and these protections. A Span- afforded access to the same benefits. through the United Nations and the This model “crowds out the market” ish economist commented that “in the OECD, which permit a comparison since all are beneficiaries and therefore U.S., work is regarded as a path to across key social welfare indicators — fulfillment...Here it is regarded more as dependent, and all are expected to pay. public expenditures for particular ac- Full employment is a key element of a divine malediction, and social securi- tivities, and patterns of income distri- these models because this both pro- ty is what makes it bearable.” Clearly a bution. Not surprising, a broad finding fundamental question is facing Europe- vides income support and helps pay for from these analyses is that political par- the welfare system. The state takes on an welfare states: “Have rapid global ties ‘on the right’ have typically resist- many aspects of family responsibility, economic changes made these systems ed the growth of welfare provision, unsustainable, or are these changes such as support for children and the while ‘social democratic’ parties have elderly. The Scandinavian countries are simply creating temporary financial encouraged such growth. examples. problems that will disappear with Euro- pean economic recovery?” Based on these analyses, welfare The developers of this definitional systems appear to fall into these general framework recognize that no welfare This background provides a useful categories: framework for reviewing Comparing approaches fit these ideal-type con- structions perfectly. The U.K., for in- Welfare States. The authors explain Conservative welfare provision stance, is closest to the liberal cluster, that the book was written to illustrate models: Those in which “corporatist” the value of comparative analysis for arrangements are most prominent. The but does not completely fit this model. Also, although the analyses of interna- suggesting policy alternatives and for state, rather than the market, is the im- tional indicators makes important as-

58 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Evaluation Issues and Activities

sumptions about the different positions social spending as a proportion of na- states were defining “austerity” differ- men and women hold in the labor mar- tional income until the 1970s. ently, just as they were reflecting dif- ket, these studies place too little em- ferent welfare emphases. And European regimes in this period phasis on this factor. The importance of had additional characteristics in com- The authors view this new develop- race is also underemphasized. mon. All of these regimes have been ment as a clear ideological shift away Trends In the Development of essentially patriarachal in the sense that from the Keynesian welfare state con- European Welfare States they ensured a secondary (protected) cept. The ‘new right’ was gaining pow- and dependent position for women as er as a source of alternative welfare Despite problems with the ideal-type family members, not as social citizens. agendas. Ways of spending welfare models, and the lack of attention to Within this general attribute, however, funds was changing, somewhat inde- gender and race, the authors view the the systems varied. Britain and Ireland pendent of decreased levels of spending three welfare state approaches above as severely limited women’s independent — such as the privatization of service useful ways to support comparative access to sources of income and wel- provision, the creation of semi-inde- studies. Looking across EC countries in fare benefits. The French system em- pendent government agencies, and the these categories, the authors examine phasized support for women as mothers levying of fees for service. This “wel- two broad issues: 1) whether common in the context of high levels of paid fare pluralism” was gaining ground trends across these nations are encour- employment for women. Sweden made over the more universalistic approaches aging a convergence of ideas about the assumption that women as well as of the past. Starting well before the col- welfare provision, and 2) whether there men are breadwinners with reasonable lapse of communism in the Soviet is movement toward a supra-national access to the labor market. Both France Union and Eastern and Central Europe, welfare state rooted in the structure of and Sweden ensured better financial this shift revealed the perception that the EC. They explore historical trends, outcomes for women. market-based economic liberalism was current approaches, and potential future beginning to frame the international so- directions. The Period From Mid-1970 cial policy agenda. However, retrench- to 1980 ments in “welfare statism” varied The Period from 1960 to across industrialized countries. Mid-1970 There were other similarities in Eu- ropean welfare states, according to the The Period from 1980 to the Cochrane and Clarke begin with the authors. These states have been orga- Present assumption that welfare states are nized around ways to include, and more “more or less universal phenomena of importantly exclude, particular groups Cochrane and Clarke feel that the advanced capitalism” and that in the in society, in the process of helping de- changes occurring in the welfare states first twenty-five years after 1945 the fine nationhood and citizenship. This of advanced capitalist countries go well advanced capitalist countries have been has frequently reinforced existing beyond reduced or stagnant spending. “Keynesian” in linking the full employ- forms of inequality and stigmatized They suggest that a wider restructuring ment concept with the provision of those defined as marginal or residual and reshaping process is taking place welfare benefits and services. They — in particular, migrant workers whose ultimate outcome remains unde- propose that a set of common principles whose relegation to low-wage employ- termined. However, they believe that relating to mixed economies and wel- ment has further reinforced such ine- some aspects of this process are already fare were generally shared across West- qualities. identifiable: ern Europe over this period. These na- n tional welfare regimes helped support However, things began to change in Welfare states are now “mixed econ- the mid-1970s and 1980s. Social wel- “a global system of interacting national omies” rather than welfare states in fare expenditures, as a proportion of economies...characterized by mass pro- the traditional sense — that is, they duction/mass consumption economies national spending, began to fall, or at are no longer unified bureaucratic least stagnate, while rates of real and extensive world trade, largely regu- systems of state-based provision, growth in social welfare spending also lated at the international level through a and there has been a significant shift financial system of relatively stable ex- fell. Dramatic cuts there were not. So- cial policy retrenchment there surely of emphasis in this ‘mix’ towards change rates dominated by the dollar was. The authors’ conclusion was that regulation and licensing, and fund- and the power of the U.S. economy.” welfare states were under new pres- ing and direct provision. At the national level, they saw the sures in an increasingly competitive in- n Welfare policy is now interpreted as Keynesian welfare state as a support for ternational environment. In fact, there an important element in economic the level of production and consump- is some evidence that those nations competition with other countries. tion necessary to preserve economic with the higher social welfare budgets For example, competition for busi- and political stability. The expansion of and which placed greatest emphasis on welfare provision over this quarter of a full employment may have been less ness investment is seen as being tied century evidenced a general, continuing economically competitive in the late to a country having low welfare — even though slight — elevation of 1970s and early 1980s. However, it costs for investors, and forms of would appear that European welfare spending that are attractive in offer-

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 59 Evaluation Issues and Activities

n Early 1960s-Early 1970s: A period With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Soviet bloc, the of economic boom at the end of unification of the two Germanys, and the turbulent movement post-war reconstruction — a period toward a multifaceted European Community, we are witnessing an in which central government welfare historic transformation of the interrelationship of nation-states. spending grew dramatically and Other key features of the post-cold war era are connected to the modernization efforts were seen as onslaught of global market forces, such as the relocation and the way to recapture national com- reorganization of manufacturing, the decline of industrial trade petitiveness. The latter efforts did unionism, and the erosion of the European welfare state...Each of not succeed, which these analysts these developments offers novel challenges for domestic and say led to the subsequent period of regional political actors, shaping and constraining the options development. available to these actors as they confront distressingly unfamiliar n Early 1970s-Early 1980s: A period social and political environments. Furthermore, they raise difficult of “corporatism” in which new ne- questions about the creation of new lines of social and economic gotiations occurred in the develop- demarcation and the fundamental transformation of Western ment of welfare and economic poli- industrial societies.” cies in the context of major macro- Kenton Worcester economic interests. “Rethinking European Studies” n Early 1980s-Early 1990s: A period in Items, the newsletter of the Social Science Research Council, March 1994. in which a rise in both neo-liberal and neo-conservative approaches oc- ing a favorable social infrastructure across European nations and the simi- curred. for investment and innovation. larities in their experiences. Differences These analysts concluded that occur within broadly-shared parame- ‘Thatcherism’ in the U.K. did not rep- n Welfare may no longer be viewed as ters, such as the continuing support for the sole responsibility of indepen- resent a radical change in Western Eu- the role of the federal government in ropean politics — rather it was a re- dent national governments, with the social welfare spending, provision and newal of diversity in approaching possibility of shared responsibility regulation, and increased pressures for welfare and economic issues. Despite across a group of nations. For in- budget austerity and retrenchment. such diversity, Cochrane and Clarke stance, the International Monetary Even though a spectrum of social poli- point to the widespread pressures being Fund, the International Labor Orga- cies are in operation, all these states experienced throughout Western Eu- nization and the EC may have a sig- have continued their commitment to a rope for financial constraint, leading to nificant influence on the reshaping mixed capitalist economy. They retain lower-cost welfare paired with guaran- patriarchal assumptions about social of Eastern and Central European so- tees of less regulatory interference by welfare policy. And they have relative- cial policy. central governments. Within the EC, ly similar beliefs about who should be these pressures are being reinforced by eligible for benefits. Western European Vs. Other the need to compete with the relatively Welfare States Other analysts of welfare state de- cheaper labor and lower welfare costs velopment since World War II provide of southern European states. The model Historically, prosperous Western another perspective on developmental likely to result, they suggest, is the lib- European nations have taken it for stages, which increases our understand- eral model, in which “welfare tends to granted that they had responsibility for ing of this phenomenon: be residual and targeted, and not based providing welfare benefits, and have al- on clear entitlements...or commitments n 1945-1948: located fairly similar levels of funding A period characterized to maintain full employment.” for that purpose. This commitment has by strong labor movements and the been significantly greater than in the development of new social-demo- The authors believe that this ap- U.S. and Japan. In the mid-1980s, most cratic initiatives. proach is likely to be adopted also in EC members spent between twenty-one the previously-communist Eastern and and thirty-three percent of their GNP n 1948-Early 1960s: A longer, more Central European states that are being on social expenditures. Only Greece, conservative and entrepreneurial pe- absorbed within the European econo- Portugal and Spain spent a lower riod based on economic prosperity my. In moving in this direction, some amount, similar to the level in the U.S. and the impact of the Cold War — a experts see European countries borrow- and Japan (18% in the U.S; 16% in Ja- period when the definition of ‘mixed ing various elements from one another pan). economy’ favored the dominance of — tailoring them to their own needs and interests, but short of any real con- the market while retaining a welfare Again, the authors want us to keep vergence of welfare models across the role for central government. in mind both the substantial differences EC.

60 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Evaluation Issues and Activities

The Likelihood of an ‘EC Welfare on the basis of its contribution to national welfare systems could occur, State’ economic modernization efforts, particularly if tied to the concept of a single economic market. This would Even though the authors feel the thus minimizing resistance from EC help build on EC supporters’ recogni- trend is toward a continuing mix of governments to any suggestion that shared and diverse social policy agen- EC spending might be defined as tion of the importance of a ‘social di- mension’ to the EC, one that would das in Europe, they are not as pessimis- welfare spending. protect and improve the rights and life tic as some policy analysts about some n sort of welfare state convergence across The EC’s Common Agricultural quality of EC workers as economic in- tegration took place. And member the EC. Although the EC has only lim- Guidance and Guarantee Fund in- states have readily acknowledged that ited power to operate independent of corporates welfare policy more member states, EC politics involves a clearly, focusing on income mainte- the availability of a skilled and flexible workforce is necessary for international somewhat autonomous cross-national nance for agricultural workers rather competition. If social policy is closely network for negotiation and bargaining than for restructuring. Income trans- through the European Commission and linked to internal economic integration fers are masked by guaranteed sales and external competitiveness, some co- European Court of Justice. The Maas- for certain products and subsidies in alescence of member states’ welfare tricht Treaty itself supported a cross- exchange for witholding active pro- agendas may be possible. national, labor-market-oriented social duction from land. This is welfare policy. This focused on defining the Debates about this issue have al- policy, the authors insist, in that the rights of workers and the improvement ready taken two major forms: of working environments, and the pro- Fund provides a basic income for 1. A “minimalist approach” which ad- vision of some form of social protec- EC farmers. vocates for minimum rights regard- tion. However, the social policy aspects The goals for these funds, Cochrane ing workplace health and safety, la- of Maastricht, the authors contend, was and Clarke maintain, imply a supra- bor force gender equality, disabled an effort to reduce barriers in operating national social policy as well as an eco- a single economic market rather than nomic agenda. This may support com- persons’ access to employment, and an effort to propose a positive social mitment to a new overarching Euro- the portability of workers’ social se- policy. pean welfare state model. curity rights and benefits across bor- ders. Irrespective of the motive for con- Some analysts have even suggested solidating an EC social policy, the au- the possibility of developing a “13th 2. A “social protectionist approach” thors suggest that the development of a state within the EC” which would be which seeks to raise standards of generalized “supra-national welfare responsible for a European Social Se- provision where they are low and to state model” is not entirely out of the curity System, of which individuals maintain them where they are high. question. Their reasoning goes this across national borders could be be- Supporters of this approach claim it way: come ‘protected’ members — particu- would provide carrot/stick pressure larly EC workers. However, because n One of the main sources of EC on business firms to upgrade their spending is the European Social this would increase social provision costs, Cochrane and Clarke do not con- technology and compete in growth Fund, which emphasizes the retrain- sider this a likely option. markets by fostering a trained and ing and relocation of the EC unem- protected workforce to compensate There is some agreement among ex- ployed. It implements part of a set of for rising labor costs. Advocates perts, however, that “moderate mini- policies intended to enable econom- also say that a limited regulatory ic restructuring. Within these poli- mum standards of income support and services” might be possible as an EC policy would protect the EC from cies, welfare is defined in terms of social policy. EC’s funding of three becoming involved in the direct its contribution to economic anti-poverty programs between 1975 funding of provision in member progress. and 1990 have important implications states, something the EC currently n The EC’s European Regional Devel- in this respect. These were beginning wishes to avoid. This approach also opment Fund encourages infrastruc- efforts in the direction of developing gives less public exposure to poten- ture development in the EC’s poor- general prototypes for use in member tially controversial resource redistri- est areas and those in industrial states. These efforts also encouraged butions. increased research on poverty, particu- decline. In practice, this means a re- larly urban poverty, which enhanced The authors point out that key as- distribution of resources from north- the EC’s social policy image. While it pects of the second approach are al- ern to southern Europe. In this sense may be too utopian, the authors say, to ready part of the EC treaties, directives it involves welfare policy. Again, expect evolution toward a trans-Euro- and regulations — in particular its reg- however, it is tied to a larger goal: pean income support and service sys- ulatory framework. This beginning economic growth. The new trend ra- tem, the development of general cross- framework has had a demonstrable im- tionalizes welfare-related spending national guidelines for operating pact already in terms of gender equali-

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 61 Evaluation Issues and Activities

ty. It has also benefited workers mov- German reunification has been cost- drawn from the experience of Western ing within the EC in obtaining jobs. A ly, with a large social policy impact. European nations, and the EC repre- continuing problem, however, is that Previously-communist European coun- sents a new forum for multi-national regulations apply to the workforce ex- tries face a striking change from a high- social policy debate and innovation, the clusively, not to EC citizens generally. ly-regimented and inefficient universal- authors see Europe as affording impor- And the set of regulations now in force istic welfare system promising full tant historical and contemporary les- are merely coordinated. They are not employment for men and women to sons about social welfare policy. part of an integrated regulatory policy. 1) a more flexibly-managed system The most significant movement to with a clear division of labor between The authors see possibilities for a observe and study, they say, is in these men and women oriented to economic more cohesive framework in 1) the ef- areas: 1) the definition of social welfare fect this limited beginning may have on productivity and growth and 2) less so- policy in terms of the labor market cial assistance. Substantial unemploy- the thinking of member states regarding (economic progress) and the rights of ment and reduced welfare budgets have reforms of their own welfare systems, workers, and 2) the extensive use of le- and 2) the fact that there is a continuing been a shock. gal forms of regulation and legal defi- emphasis on the protection of member What we are seeing in these coun- nitions of entitlements. These elements states’ own indigenous workforces — tries, Cochrane and Clarke conclude, is have become universally accepted as- and in relation to this, a comparative a mixture of liberal market-based re- pects of social policy throughout the disinterest in the rights of imported sidual welfare approaches, and conser- EC. They support the perceived need to workers from outside the EC. In addi- vative efforts to protect powerful provide a social welfare infrastructure tion to these positive and negative fac- groups, such as the working class and to support economic competitiveness. tors, some experts consider any future some segments of the former commu- The authors remind us that the as- EC-based integration of guidelines cov- nist bureaucracies. There are also indi- sumption in this approach remains that ering “the rights of social citizenship” cations that what the authors term “an “the norm around which social policy to be entirely consistent with the politi- authoritarian populism” is building in should be constructed is that of families cal basis and institutional structure of these countries. Economic development based on a single breadwinner” — the EC. However, action in this direc- is now clearly the primary priority in i.e. in most cases, then, based on a tra- tion has been extremely limited. these nations, with welfare highly de- ditional family structure. As for a pendent on overall economic success multi-national EC social welfare sys- Expansion of the EC — much more so than in the existing tem, the authors’ final verdict is that EC countries. The authors believe that two chang- this outcome is a long way off if indeed es in Europe will influence the future If these additional nations are ab- at all plausible. They predict that the of its welfare states: sorbed by the EC, which is likely, there main sources of social policy change n The likely expansion of the EC to may be increasing pressure to place a will remain at the level of member protective social welfare wall around states. include many of the countries that workers in the core EC, with the effect had been members of the European Although this comparison of welfare that workers in Eastern and Central Eu- states focused exclusively on the Euro- Free Trade Association — that is, rope will be treated as “economic mi- pean continent, one cannot avoid notic- Austria and Sweden. grants” with more limited benefits. Fur- ing the similarities between current n The effects of the demise of Eastern thermore, these countries could not U.S. social welfare policy and the cen- possibly meet the EC’s current regula- and Central European communist tral themes characterizing changes in tory standards for the protection of em- governments, in terms of significant European welfare states. Although our ployment and life quality. The possibil- policies have been more closely tied to reduction in their social provision. ity of a two-track EC citizenship status economic interests historically, the pe- seems possible, and mirrors the differ- Countries seeking incorporation rennial liberal/conservative debates that within the EC, such as Sweden, feel ent levels of EC resource allocation for have shaped and reshaped welfare poli- economic activities between current EC pressure to bring their social welfare cy in the U.S. appear to be converging members and these other nations. The model into closer alignment with those toward the center, and in many ways of the dominant existing members — in authors feel that the expansion of the are looking similar to the progression EC to include these countries will me- particular to reduce their high welfare in Europe. It will be interesting to study diate against a central EC social policy, costs while attempting to sustain high the impact of the convergence in social levels of employment for women (al- since the cost simply to bring these na- welfare policy in Europe on our current tions up to the EC’s present limited though experts predict that the former desire to draw ideas from the EC, par- standards would be sizable. effort can only mean a higher unem- ticularly regarding a reform of our ployment rate). Also, as prosperous Some Conclusions from the workforce training and employment economies, Sweden and Austria will be system. expected to pay a price for EC entry, Book which could increase EC funds for a Inasmuch as American ideas about ‘social policy dimension’. social welfare systems are increasingly

62 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Evaluation Issues and Activities

Editor’s Note Social Policy. London: Sage Publica- don: Hemel Hempstead; Harvester tions, 1992. Wheatsheaf, 1990. For those wishing to delve deeper into Glennerster, H. and J. Midgley (edi- OECD: The Future of Social Protection. these issues, please see the following tors). The Radical Right and the OECD Social Policy Studies, references: Welfare State: An International As- No.6.Paris, 1988. Commission of the European Commu- sessment. London: Hemel Hemp- Pfaller, A. et al. (editors). Can the Wel- nities: Europe 2000: Outlook for the stead; Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1991. fare State Compete? A Comparative Development of the Community’s Heidenheimer, A. et al. Comparative Study of Five Advanced Capitalist Territory. Luxembourg: Directorate- Public Policy: The Politics of Social Countries. London: Macmillan, 1991. General for Regional Policy, 1991. Choice in America, Europe and Ja- Weir, M. A. Orloff, and T. Skocpol (edi- Esping-Andersen, G. Politics Against pan. NY: St. Martin’s Press, 1990. tors). The Politics of Social Policy in Markets: The Social Democratic Lipietz, A. Mirages and Miracles: The the United States. Princeton, NJ: Road to Power. Princeton, NJ.: Prin- Crises of Global Fordism. London: Princeton University Press, 1988. ceton University Press, 1990. Verso, 1986. Thane, P. and G. Bock (editors). Mater- Esping-Andersen, G. The Three Worlds Mishra, R. The Welfare State in Capi- nity and Gender Policies: Women of Welfare Capitalism. Cambridge: talist Society: Policies of Retrench- and the Rise of the European Wel- Polity Press, 1990. ment and Maintenance in Europe, fare State. London: Routledge, Ginsberg, N. Divisions of Welfare: A North America and Australia. Lon- 1991. Critical Introduction to Comparative

At the National, State and Local Level What Is Happening with Welfare Reform in the U.S.?

Editorial Introduction has declined dramatically. 184,000 children high infant mortality, lack of access to in Washington depend on AFDC grants for health care, poor nutrition and homeless- To provide a context for the follow- the basics of life. Yet over the past twenty- ness. four years, the amount paid to a four-person ing guest review regarding a Washing- n More than 35% of the homeless seeking household on AFDC declined from 117% of ton State welfare reform project which shelter in King County, which includes Se- poverty level to 54%. Grants are only 47% of attle, are AFDC recipients. gained considerable national attention, what the state calculates it costs to buy ba- we quote selectively from a 1994 Con- sic necessities. This low level not only tends n Over 40% of AFDC recipients are suffer- gressional testimony prepared by Kay to deprive families on assistance but makes ing from hunger, and 90% are at risk of Thode, former director of the health thousands of needy families ineligible for hunger, according to the Governor’s Task and welfare program of the Seattle Ur- any assistance. Declining grant levels have Force on Hunger. ban League, and currently a guest re- reflected the view that too much is being n Children in hungry families are more likely viewer for Evaluation Forum. spent on welfare, that people stay too long in to have specific health problems which af- the system and need to be pushed off, that fect their school performance. Washington’s poverty rate increased faster those on welfare are not contributing to soci- n than the national rate between 1980 and 71% of a random sample of children ety, and that welfare recipients receive too served by the Department of Social and 1990 — from 9.7% to 10.9%. The largest in- much. The facts speak otherwise. Only 5.1% creases were in eastern Washington and ru- Health Services programs are severely of Washington’s population received AFDC emotionally disturbed. A disproportionate ral western counties. Poverty is high among in 1990, but 10.9% of the state’s population young children: 17% for children under four percentage of these children live in AFDC is officially poor. Only 2.7% to 3.1% of state families. years old; 16.4% for children age 5. Howev- general funds were spent on AFDC since er, the highest age-specific poverty is 1988. Nationally, less than one percent of n The drastic decline in grants coupled with among people ages eighteen to twenty-four, the federal budget goes to AFDC. the elimination of casework services to 20% of whom are poor. AFDC families has been accompanied by The consequences of low welfare grants Several factors play a major role in the in- a steady increase in caseloads for Chil- are seen in hunger, homelessness, poor dren’s Protective Services. The number of crease in Washington’s poverty rate. These health, poor school performance, emotional include high unemployment, a loss of high- children’s cases opened rose from 691 in disturbance and family break-up, as indicat- April, 1968 to 5,587 in April,1990 — a paying timber and manufacturing jobs, an in- ed by the following: crease in lower-paying service jobs many of 709% increase. n The Washington Children’s Health Re- which are part-time, an increase in one-par- n AFDC families are overrepresented in ent households headed by women, and a search and Policy Group recently found in Children’s Protective Services’ caseloads, decline in public assistance payments. a survey of ninety experts on children’s is- especially for child neglect, defined as not sues that the most critical problem chil- providing adequate nutritious food, ade- Because of the low grant levels, being on dren face in the state is poverty. Almost public assistance in Washington likely guar- quate clothing, safe and sanitary housing, all the problems experts identified corre- and other basic life qualities. antees that a family will live in dire poverty. late strongly with poverty status: sub- Since 1969, the income provided by AFDC stance abuse, low birth-weight babies,

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 63 Evaluation Issues and Activities nn mentation, labor market and welfare The FIP Design and the Expected Washington State’s program impacts, and costs and bene- Effect of Design Elements fits be evaluated rigorously. The Urban Family Indepen- FIP produced a set of program chang- Institute in Washington, D.C. was se- dence Program: An es relative to the AFDC program which lected to evaluate FIP, based on a plan had a variety of potential positive and to conduct a process analysis of imple- Economic Interpreta- negative effects. These, therefore, had mentation and operation; a net impact tion of its Impact* the potential to cancel each other’s ef- evaluation of program effects on em- fects. ployment, earnings and welfare experi- ence; and a cost-benefit analysis. 1. Financial incentives in the form of A Guest Review by monthly cash bonuses were given to Ernst W. Stromsdorfer Positive Expectations persons who undertook training or Department of Economics FIP was launched with considerable education or who went to work. Washington State University positive expectations for its impact on Expected effect: Education and the well-being of welfare clients, the training enrollment levels may in- Department of Social and Human Ser- crease.5 Also, a person may choose vices, and the state. Its designers longer duration and more expen- Introduction viewed it as a potential national model. sive training. Initially, this may However, the unique features of FIP keep one enrolled in FIP longer. The Family Independence Program made it an unusually ambitious under- (FIP) was Washington State’s land- As for employment, a person may taking. It was a challenge for the eval- enter the labor force sooner to seek mark welfare reform initiative in the uators as well, since no mandatory ran- 1980s. FIP was to help “those who are employment, since such bonuses dom assignment to the program was would serve to compensate for the discouraged to seek self-sufficiency allowed and the basic analysis was con- through work, education, or training.”1 fixed costs of work, such as child ducted entirely with administrative care costs. FIP was an alternative to Washing- records to test the feasibility of their ton’s existing AFDC work/welfare pro- use in a major program evaluation. 2. Employability enhancement services, gram, the Work Employment and Op- including individualized assessments portunities Program (WEOP). Exhibit Summary of Net Impacts and referrals. 1 provides a precis of this and the sub- Most of the positive expectations for Expected effect: The identifica- sequent national Job Opportunities and FIP did not materialize. tion of appropriate services may be Basic Skills Program (JOBS). WEOP improved and there may be an im- was replaced by the JOBS program n There was little, if any, increase in enrollment in education or training. proved match with service provid- funded under the federal Family Sup- ers. Once services are received port Act (FSA) passed in 1988, which n There were zero or negative changes and training and education are became operational in October 1990. 2 in employment and earnings. completed, employment and earn- As Exhibit 1 shows, FIP anticipated ings may increase and welfare de- many features of the FSA. The FSA n A large and statistically significant pendency decline. was similar to FIP in terms of its target- increase occurred in welfare partici- ing provisions, its training and educa- pation and monthly welfare grants.3 3. Supportive services. Child care was tion program and other incentives subsidized at 90% of the market rate meant to encourage welfare clients to Exhibit 2 presents an overview of while in training, education, or at work. net effects. These are surprising re- work. Medicaid benefits were main- sults. Historically, subsidized employ- tained for one year after leaving FIP Designed by the leadership of Wash- ment and training programs serving ington’s Department of Social and disadvantaged women typically have and assuming a job. Health Services, FIP received partial led to positive employment and earn- Expected effect: Subsidized child federal funding as a multi-year waiver ings impacts. This is so, for example, care reduces the fixed costs of project under the U.S. Department of with the work/welfare experiments schooling and work, and should Health and Human Services. Its status studied by the Manpower Demonstra- lead to an increase in both work as a demonstration project required tion Research Corporation in the 1980s and schooling — in terms of the that: 1) it be budget neutral; that is, not and for Title II-A programs of the Job number of persons involved and cost taxpayers anymore than the exist- 4 Training Partnership Act. their duration in either activity. ing AFDC program and 2), its imple- Extended Medicaid benefits are an implicit increase in a clients’ take- home wage. This is essentially a *Author’s Note: This article is based on The Urban Institute’s series of studies of the Family Independence Program. Greg Weeks, of the Washington State Institute for Public Policy, helped to improve this summary considerably.

64 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Evaluation Issues and Activities

Exhibit 1 n Major Components of the FIP, WEOP and JOBS Programs

Component FIP1 WEOP JOBS Operational Date Began July 1988 Was in operation until October Began October 1990. 1990.

Target Groups Entire AFDC caseload, with focus AFDC clients with children age AFDC clients with children on pregnant or parenting teens. six or older. three or older, with focus on long-term welfare recipients and pregnant or parenting teens.

Participation Mandate Voluntary Mandatory for those with children Officially mandatory for those six or older; others can volun- with children age three or older, teer.2 but essentially voluntary due to low participation rate requirements. Services n Job search, job placement, Wide variety of services with an Focus on job search assistance Similar to FIP education and training emphasis on job search assis- and placement with limited refer- tance, referral to education, train- ral to education beyond basic ing, and placement. skills, or to training.

n Child Care Assistance while in education Limited child care during educa- Similar to FIP and/or training. Assistance while tion and/or training. Earned in- working if still on a welfare grant. come disregard while in employ- Assistance for one year following ment and still receiving a grant. cancellation of a grant due to earnings in employment.

n Medical Medicaid available as supple- Medicaid available only while re- Similar to FIP ment to welfare grant; also avail- ceiving a grant. able for one year after grant cancellation due to earnings in employment. Incentives for Work, and for Education and Training n Financial Financial incentives or bonuses None None for participation in approved edu- cation, training, and work activi- ties.

n Food Assistance Conversion of Food Stamps to Standard Food Stamp Program Standard Food Stamp Program cash. benefits benefits.

Source: This table is based substan- 1In addition to the features summa- 2Exempt welfare recipients included tially on Long and Wissoker, 1993, rized here, FIP established a highly those Ill, incapacitated or of advanced Table II.1, Selected Characteristics of simplified formal enrollment proce- age; those caring for an ill or incapac- FIP, AFDC/WEOP, and AFDC/JOBS, dure that involved significant reduc- itated family member; those employed page 6. tion of paperwork and the volume of at least 30 hours per week as well as documents required to be presented full-time students; and, those residing by the prospective welfare client. where no program is available. Dur- Also, FIP couched this process in a ing 1988 and 1989, mandatory partici- much more client-service-oriented re- pation was not enforced for WEOP lationship between the prospective cli- due to a court-ordered moratorium on ent and the client’s case coordinator. sanctions. Thus, non-FIP welfare par- ticipants were also offered the servic- es of a program that was essentially voluntary.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 65 Evaluation Issues and Activities

lump sum wage bonus in the want to”.6 This means that volun- The ‘Difference of Differences’ form of a cut in taxes on wages. tary participation in the program per Comparison. This may increase work incen- se could become defined as volun- In the FIP evaluation, the average tives, inducing more persons to tary participation in activities de- experience of the participants in a giv- return to work sooner. signed to move one into education, en FIP site is compared against the av- 4. Special emphasis on serving preg- training, and employment. erage experience of the participants in the matched non-FIP comparison sites. nant and parenting teenagers. Expected effect: Enrollments in One particular problem with the re- FIP may increase, but with no Expected effect: Other things be- search design bears mentioning. The necessary increase in activities ing equal, if this is a hard-to-serve analysts developed a ‘before-after/dif- group with low prognosis for suc- such as job search or education ference of differences’ estimation mod- that might improve economic in- cess in training and employment, el that was then further adjusted by dependence. Also, an increase in then net program impacts on edu- multiple regression analysis. Once the cation, training, employment and expectations concerning jobs and matched treatment and control sites wage rates may occur. Such an welfare dependency reduction may were selected, the basepoint reference increase can result in persons worsen compared to individuals in for measuring work/welfare experience the study’s comparison group. holding out for better jobs than in a given site was the group of partici- they can realistically expect to 5. A consolidated and streamlined ad- pants receiving benefits in that site at a obtain. This may retard exit from given time prior to FIP. With an ap- ministrative system. The key fea- welfare. tures were: 1) simplified FIP enroll- propriate further statistical adjust- ment procedures that reduced the Research Design ment, for each site the difference in the stigma of enrolling in FIP; 2) the experience of that pre-FIP cohort in What was the overall net effect of the FIP and non-FIP sites was used to cash-out of Food Stamp benefits; 7 these different program components? adjust the comparison of the experience and 3) other liberalizations in the The net impact evaluation was de- of the FIP and non-FIP cohorts over a benefit award system that increased signed to determine the net effects of 36 month period. In simple terms, the monthly benefits to FIP participants FIP relative to its broadly stated goals. test statistic looks as follows: relative to the comparison group. This test included a comparison group Any Net Benefit (or Effect) = of non-FIP (WEOP/JOBS) participants Expected effect: Such simplified [(T b - T a) - (C b - C a)] whose educational, training, welfare 1 i 1 i procedures lower the non-mone- and employment experiences were Where: tary costs of enrolling in FIP and compared with those of a cohort of FIP may induce greater participation T is the FIP participant (site). participants over a 36-month period. in welfare. The reduction of stig- C is the comparison non-FIP participant ma may increase welfare enroll- However, the comparison group was (site). ment and persons may stay on not statistically similar to the FIP par- ticipants, nor was it possible to utilize b is the cohort prior to the beginning of welfare longer. FIP. administrative data and state-of-the-art 6. A more client and family-oriented statistical analysis to fully overcome a is the cohort after the beginning of service delivery system. the differences between FIP and com- FIP. Expected effect: Welfare enroll- parison group participants. Also, a and b are not the same cohorts. members of the comparison group had ment may increase in the long 1 is the time period prior to FIP op- run. An improved mix of coun- access to and/or were receiving servic- eration. seling, education, training and es available through WEOP and JOBS, job search services may be deliv- which, after October 1990, became i is any time period after the beginning of FIP. ered which may reduce long term very similar to FIP in terms of the edu- dependency and increase employ- cational, training and job search servic- The key to understanding this model ment and earnings. es offered. In this situation, if the de- lies in the fact that the b and a cohorts sign and administration of the com- are not the same people statistically. 7. Individualized case coordination. parison program is superior to that of Furthermore, the two cohorts may be- This included a change from a (tech- the FIP program, it is possible for there come even more different over time nically) mandatory program to a to be negative program impacts for due to the FIP program itself. Yet, cru- voluntary program. Specifically, FIP. That is, society, taxpayers, and cial to making valid inferences about a there was an emphasis on voluntary the FIP participants can be made rela- program’s net effects is the assumption participation in FIP, which included tively worse off compared to WEOP/ that the FIP a and b cohorts are statisti- telling some clients that “you don’t JOBS participants. cally equivalent and remain so over have to do anything if you don’t time except that cohort a gets the treat- ment (FIP services), while cohort b

66 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Evaluation Issues and Activities

Exhibit 2 n Family Independence Program: Summary of 36 Month Net Program Impacts

Outcome Quarter after Program Start 2nd 4th 6th 8th 10th 12th

New Entrants, One-Parent Cases Program Inputs Percentage in Job Search -1.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.4 — — Percentage in Education 1.6* 0.8 1.2* 0.6 — — Percentage in Training -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.6 — —

Program Outputs Percentage Employed -4.4* -2.1 -1.4 -0.8 -0.3 -1.9 Average Monthly Earnings ($) -36.1** -42.0 -21.7 -29.0 -32.6 -31.3 Percentage on Welfare 7.4@ 10.3@@@@ 7.5@ 5.7 6.6 6.3 Average Monthly Welfare Grant 46.1** 51.0@ 38.7@@@@ 32.6 33.7 32.4 On-going Participants, One-Parent Cases Program Inputs Percentage in Job Search 0.2 0.0 -0.8** 0.9@ — — Percentage in Education 0.4 1.6** 0.5 0.2 — — Percentage in Training -0.4 -1.5** -0.5 0.4 — —

Program Outputs Percentage Employed -0.1 -0.1 -1.14 -1.1 -0.4 -1.2 Average Monthly Earnings ($) -7.6 -11.9 -18.8 -29.6* -13.5 -19.1 Percentage on Welfare 1.0 2.8@@ 4.8 6.9@@@ 4.9 5.4 Average Monthly Welfare Grant 9.3** 17.1@@@@ 21.9@ 31.8 21.2 25.2

Women in Two-Parent Cases Program Inputs Percentage in Job Search — — – — — — Percentage in Education 0.5 0.6 -1.8* 0.6 — — Percentage in Training -4.5@ -2.0 -0.7 -6.4@ — —

Program Outputs Percentage Employed 1.2 -0.4 1.0 1.6 2.1 -3.8 Average Monthly Earnings ($) 13.3 18.6 13.8 -15.0 -17.5 -17.0 Percentage on Welfare 4.0 10.9@@ 13.8 13.8@ 12.7 @@ 12.1 Average Monthly Welfare Grant 19.3* 34.4@ 32.9@ 43.4@ 43.4@ 42.3@

Men in Two-Parent Cases Program Inputs Percentage in Job Search -7.9@@@ -4.6 -3.7 1.3* — — Percentage in Education 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.3* — — Percentage in Training 1.2 -1.5 1.2 1.5* — —

Program Outputs Percentage Employed -8.9** -11.0@ -11.9@ -13.2@ -9.3** -9.2@ Average Monthly Earnings ($) -128.3@@@ -120.3 -214.7 -157.8@ -138.1** -151.3** Percentage on Welfare 2.7 10.5@ 14.2@ 16.3@ 13.1@ 13.7@ Average Monthly Welfare Grant 16.2 33.8@@ 39.1 51.4@ 53.3@@ 54.4

Source: Long and Wissoker, 1993, Tables IV.2, IV.3, IV.4, IV.5, V.2, V.4, V.6.

Notes: * = significant at the .10 level, two-tailed test. ** = significant at the .05 level, two-tailed test. @ = significant at the .01level, two-tailed test.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 67 Evaluation Issues and Activities

does not. The assumption with respect impact findings do not represent the 3. The pressure of ‘cost neutrality’ re- to the comparison sites and participants true effect of FIP. quirements which in turn cut down is the same—that a and b are statisti- the quality and quantity of the train- cally equivalent at the outset and re- What Appeared to Happen? ing and education offered. main so over time. These are crucial Although there were significant sta- 4. The apparent failure of a plurality assumptions, as the Urban Institute an- tistical problems to overcome related to alysts state. If these assumptions do the design and administration of FIP, it of FIP clients to identify and under- not hold, then the measures of net im- is possible that the net direction of the stand the program incentives avail- pact are suspect. effects measured by the Urban Institute able to them as rewards for pursuing It is not likely that these assumptions was the true direction. actions that might reduce their wel- fare dependency. held for the net impact evaluation or n Increasing the direct money benefits that the available data were such that of the program and making it less 5. Reduced employment and earnings. statistical equivalence was achieved The failure of FIP cost neutrality led through statistical adjustment. The rea- onerous to join the program could to a change in emphasis in FIP from son is that the most important dimen- result in higher predicted enrollment sions on which the different groups and longer enrollment duration. This education and training to more im- vary over time are unmeasurable — for is actually what happened. mediate job placement. Why, then, did employment fail to increase? example, motivation and taste for mar- n Concomitant reduced enrollment in Again, the tone of the program may ket work or training. And, indeed, FIP education and training was a prob- was operated in such a way as to en- have been partly responsible, but lem. Increased enrollment in FIP hance such unmeasurable differences other factors were also important. over time. For example, in FIP two- (ignoring program costs for the mo- parent families no longer had to show ment) is not necessarily a negative 6. An apparent weak link between the past work experience to enroll. This in the long run if: 1) clients are education and training that was se- downgrades the employability of the properly counseled; 2) they are lected and received and conditions FIP participants relative to the pre-FIP promptly given job search assistance in local labor markets. Persons group, and the pre-non-FIP and post- or referred to training and education must be counseled to take training non-FIP groups. that is realistically related to labor and education that most suits their market opportunities; and 3), they talents and the training and educa- Other Possible Reasons for are placed directly into jobs once tion must be relevant to available Comparability Problems they are deemed job ready. Howev- jobs. The reduction of stigma and the sig- er, the tone of the referral process 7. The lack of emphasis on job devel- nificant reduction in the formal enroll- changed under FIP, apparently in- ment process could have further opment activitives. There was a pro ducing fewer clients to take advan- forma emphasis on job placements, changed the FIP group. The greater tage of the services offered. Thus, generosity of the FIP program could but not on job development. This is there was no net increase in educa- also have induced changes in the popu- a deadly combination when linked lation, and therefore, behavioral make- tion or training enrollments for FIP with the lack of incentive or com- up of FIP. Next, the explicit targeting relative to WEOP/JOBS. pulsion to find a job. of services to the pregnant or parenting Other elements of program opera- teenagers, if the same did not happen in 8. A problem with case coordinators’ tion may have contributed to this result training. The training of case coor- the comparison sites, would have re- as well, though their exact quantitative dinators may have led to their rais- sulted in biased measures of net impact. impact cannot be measured. These Finally, by 24 months after program were: ing the wage expectations of FIP cli- start about eight percent of the individ- ents. In the face of less attractive uals in the comparison sites had 1. Too little difference in the nature of job and wage opportunities, such in- crossed over to the FIP sites. These education and training activities be- creased expectations would inhibit comparability problems are very seri- tween FIP and those available un- the acceptance of employment. ous. der the existing programs, thus re- The situation is worsened because ducing the incentive to enroll in Some Conclusions such activities under FIP. This we do not know how serious these There are significant data and statis- problem worsened over time. problems were or how successful the tical problems in estimating the net im- analysts were in adjusting for the sam- 2. Caseload growth in the face of no pact of the FIP program relative to the ple differences caused by these prob- staff increase, resulting in reduced WEOP and the JOBS programs. While lems. Thus, there remains a reason- contributing to the increased short-run able doubt that at least some of the net time spent by case coordinators with FIP clients. well-being of clients, it is likely that

68 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Evaluation Issues and Activities

FIP did not foster the long-run well-be- Notes 6 Long, et al. (1993), page 122. The problem here is that there is no clear quantification of the ing of clients, taxpayers, and society as 1 See The Urban Institute’s A Plan for the number of FIP participants who received this a whole. The fault appears related to Implementation of the Family Independence message of voluntary participation in the servic- program design and to certain accidents Program, (1987), page 7. es of FIP—either from staff or other clients—or of execution of that design. 2 A summary document reporting the net out- the intensity with which this message was deliv- comes of FIP states that “Employment and earn- ered. Thus, it is not clear how important this ad- The program design may have been ings for FIP clients were not significantly differ- ministrative phenomenon is in explaining the too complex. Some program treatments ent from those for AFDC clients” (State of overall negative effects. and management practices operated at Washington, Legislative Budget Committee, 7 Note that the reliance on administrative cross purposes. Increased money in- “Summary of Findings from Mandated FIP Eval- data precluded the ability to estimate the sepa- centives were offered to encourage en- uation,” no date). However, a review of the de- rate effects of the different components. The tailed findings shows that employment and earn- rollment in FIP while the stigma and program treatments are evaluated as a “black ings for men in two-parent cases are lower for box.” other costs of welfare dependency were FIP than for AFDC. See Long and Wissoker reduced. This would predict increased (1993), in the bibliography. welfare enrollment and longer duration 3 See Nightingale, et al. (1993), Chapter VIII, Bibliography on welfare. Such happened. particularly page 127. This review is based ex- Family Independence Program Executive Com- clusively on the reports of the Urban Institute mittee, Jule Sugarman, Chair. 1987. A Plan In terms of execution, voluntary en- listed in the bibliography. However, at times I for Implementation of the Family Indepen- rollment in FIP apparently was trans- differ in the interpretations of these overall re- dence Program. A Report to the Washington lated, to some degree at least, into vol- sults. One key difference is the assertion that State Legislature. Department of Social and untary enrollment into employment and positive lessons were learned from FIP in terms Health Services. Olympia, Washington. of creating a more client-centered office culture. (December.) training programs and job search. An- Another difference is the determination that it is other fatal flaw, a problem facing sub- possible to target services to particular groups of Greenberg, David H. 1993. A Benefit-Cost sidized employment and training pro- interest. With respect to the first assertion, the Analysis of the Washington State Family In- practical results speak for themselves, if one has dependence Program (FIP). The Urban In- grams for 30 years, was the lack of stitute. (June.) strong links between the education and full confidence in the evaluation design. This change may have led to increased retention on Long, Sharon K. and Douglas A. Wissoker. training of clients and available jobs. welfare. As for the second finding on targeting, 1993. The Evaluation of the Washington In this context, raising client job expec- one wonders why this seems so remarkable. State Family Independence Program: Final tations will compound the damage. 4 See the various reports of The National Report. The Urban Institute. (December.) Many things motivate people to be- JTPA Study, conducted by Abt Associates Inc. Nightingale, Demetra Smith, Carolyn O‘Brien, 5 Pamela Holcomb, and Kristin Seefeldt. have in different ways, but welfare cli- To clarify why the FIP design and adminis- 1992. FIP at Steady State: The Third Pro- ents, like anyone else, respond to in- tration may be the key to the consistent, long- cess Analysis Report from the Evaluation of centives and and pursue their self- term, negative results, we make several assump- the Family Independence Program. The Ur- tions about the behavior of participants. First, ban Institute. (July, draft.) interest. Programs that fail to recog- they will attempt to maximize the benefits they nize this will not be successful in in- receive for a given set of monetary and non- Please see Nightingale, et al. (1993) for a ducing clients to undertake actions that monetary costs they experience. Second, the pro- complete bibliography of the 13 studies pre- will reduce their dependency on wel- gram characteristics set in motion two opposing pared by The Urban Institute on the Family forces. First, as net monetary program benefits Independence Program. fare. Policy makers considering new increase, there is an income effect that translates national welfare reform initiatives into less incentive to work for wages or to pur- should give the very competant efforts sue education or training. Greater income also to evaluate FIP serious thought. This allows a person to search longer for a good job and hold out for higher wages. Next, as the wel- applies to the design of programs; their fare tax against wages falls, due, for instance, to appropriate implementation; and the re- extending Medicaid benefits even while the re- search design within which well- cipient is working, there is a substitution effect trained social researchers are limited by as net wages rise that causes a person to work political and organizational agendas in more. These forces and assumptions explain to a large degree why FIP, as designed and executed, the way they can evaluate program ef- could have had net negative impacts, though the fects. counteracting pulls of the income and substitu- tion effects were not explicitly estimated.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 69 Evaluation Issues and Activities

nn original WIN Program prior to its revi- Many states had difficulty securing State Welfare Reform sion in 1971. This necessitated signifi- state funding for JOBS in the midst of Efforts Within the cant decisions about the mix and se- fiscal constraints and state educational quence of services to be provided, and priorities, and often relied on leverag- JOBS Framework the development of separate ‘service ing JTPA resources. States, and areas In the Features Section, evaluations tracks’ for clients with different pro- within states, varied in how compre- of a number of 1980s’ work/welfare files. States tended to consider three hensive their services were, and what models were summarized and com- general ideal-type models for imple- proportion of their AFDC caseloads re- mented on. This article provides a brief menting JOBS. All three included an ceived them. Many emphasized human overview of evaluations of reforms cre- assessment of the client’s needs and capital investment over immediate em- ated by states within the design frame- abilities, but varied in the degree of cli- ployment. In those stressing the latter, work of the Job Opportunities and ent choice and the balance between ed- job search was the most prominent ser- Basic Skills Program (JOBS), which ucation/training and employment ser- vice, as in WIN. was authorized in 1988 under the Fami- vices: Participation Rates ly Support Act (FSA). The ‘Choice’ Model: This model In this early phase, the research team Prior to reviewing studies of new allows an individual to choose the mix found states failing to make strong ef- models, we take a look at an early and sequence of services irrespective of study of JOBS implementation. Then his or her level of education and skills. forts to enforce the federal participation mandate. In some states, all JOBS cli- we summarize two major efforts to op- The ‘Job Readiness Screening’ ents were volunteers. Few states were erate comprehensive JOBS programs Model: This permits staff to refer cli- — California’s GAIN Program and sanctioning clients for failure to partici- ents to one of two different service pate. Florida’s Project Independence. We strategies based on the clients’ educa- end with a short exploration of pro- tion, training and employment history: Other Conclusions from the grams emphasizing education. one track for job-ready clients (job Study search and placement services), and an- A Study of Preliminary JOBS other for less employable clients (edu- The researchers felt JOBS was well- Implementation cation and/or training prior to job designed even though weakly imple- In 1990, soon after the deadline for search and placement services). mented in its beginning phase. Clearly, however, JOBS was increasing partici- the implementation of JOBS programs The ‘Educational Screening’ pation in education, training and em- throughout the U.S., the Rockefeller In- Model: This model encourages clients stitute of Government initiated a three- ployment services. A lack of funding to first improve their educational skills appeared to be the largest impediment year study of JOBS’ early implementa- and complete a high school education to successful implementation. Oregon tion in ten representative states. A before receiving additional services. network of policy analysts and process was the only state to draw down its full Only clients who reject this sequence or share of federal JOBS funds in1991, evaluators using common field instru- who have already achieved an accept- and only three states did so in 1992. ments interviewed key players in oper- able level of educational attainment are ating JOBS programs, and reported the Even with the full federal share, it ap- referred to training or employment. peared that many states would not be results within a common format. In the early stages of JOBS imple- able to reach and maintain the desired The first wave of research examined mentation, states struggled to adapt participation rates. One of the most op- state decisions regarding program de- such prototypes to their particular timistic findings was the widespread signs, management policies and prac- needs, interests and conditions. willingness of community service pro- tices, and funding arrangements. A sec- viders to offer services to JOBS clients ond round of research explored the Building Program Capacity if funding were available to cover their efforts of local agencies and front-line cost. staff to implement programs. Three The researchers found that states faced challenges in building new inter- kinds of local sites were selected for Comprehensive State JOBS agency linkages, deciding on the mode study within each of the ten states: a Programs Targeted to Mandatory metropolitan area, a mid-sized city, and and organizational arrangements for Clients service delivery, and securing funding. a small or rural community. Most states moved to establish stronger Two large-scale state programs are Program Designs relationships with education, training profiled here: California’s Greater Ave- and employment providers. Most divid- nues for Independence Program The FSA broadened the range of ed service delivery responsibilities effi- (GAIN) and Florida’s Project Indepen- services states were required to offer ciently between the state welfare agen- dence. Both seek to incorporate ele- beyond those authorized in the previ- cy and its local offices and other ments of the three prototype program ous Work Incentive Program (WIN). service providers, giving these other or- models profiled in the Rockefeller In- Education and skills training were giv- ganizations a major role in operating stitute study. en greater emphasis, much like the the program.

70 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Evaluation Issues and Activities

The GAIN Program vice, but if they are not able to obtain ent’s actual engagement in discrete pro- GAIN was authorized by the state employment they are required to re- gram activities, such as job search and ceive basic education. Those already education or training following enroll- legislature in 1985. It subsequently be- participating in education or training ment in and orientation to GAIN. Par- came California’s version of the federal JOBS Program — and it is now one of programs prior to enrollment in GAIN ticipation was measured also in terms may continue if these interventions of the length of engagement in each the largest and most ambitious JOBS meet GAIN criteria: the services must area of program activity and in the pro- programs in the U.S. In1992 it repre- sented approximately twelve percent of be capable of completion within two gram as a whole. The research team re- years, and must lead to the acquisition ported impacts for 1) that segment of the federal government’s entire JOBS of skills in demand occupations in local the experimental group that had actual- budget. As part of the legislation, Cali- fornia also authorized an experimental labor markets. Participants in any of the ly engaged in GAIN activities (irre- three tracks who ultimately fail to find spective of whether these activities had net impact evaluation of GAIN, which employment receive an employability been completed) or were continuing is being conducted by the Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation assessment as a basis for referral to ad- employment and training activities be- ditional services — i.e. skills training, gun prior to involvement in GAIN, and (MDRC). A series of reports have now community or technical college occu- 2) the experimental group as a whole. been produced on GAIN’s implementa- tion and effects, with more to come. pational education, on-the-job training, This was very useful in interpreting or unpaid work experience. Grants are study results. The most recent report details impacts reduced as a sanction for noncompli- for clients over a two year follow-up ance with GAIN participation. Program Implementation: period, with data collection having be- Participation Rates gun in 1991. Methodological Issues Participation patterns were studied The impact results apply to a study The largest and most detailed separately for two subgroups of inter- of 33,000 applicants for and recipients MDRC report on implementation re- est: those determined to need basic ed- of AFDC whose participation in GAIN flected conditions one year into the ucation, and those not. The research was mandatory: single heads of fami- study and focused on GAIN participa- team broke down the latter subsample lies with children age six and older, and tion patterns eleven months following into individuals who were: 1) AFDC heads of two-parent households. The clients’ attendance of a GAIN orienta- applicants, 2) short-term AFDC recipi- study was carried out in six counties tion. GAIN clients were randomly as- ents, and 3) longer-term AFDC recipi- with a wide variety of local conditions, signed to an experimental (GAIN-treat- ents at the time of their referral to representing more than one-third of the ed) group and a control (non-GAIN- GAIN. Since two counties, including state’s GAIN caseload and more than treated) group following their referral Los Angeles County, enrolled only one-half of its larger AFDC population. to the program and attendance at an ori- long-term recipients in GAIN, the re- Characteristics of the GAIN entation session. Overall, a little more searchers limited their comparison Research Sample than half of the single-parent house- across counties to the long-term-recipi- holds who were randomly assigned to ent segment of the GAIN population. Four of the six counties in the study the experimental group in five of the Participation rates in various GAIN were providing GAIN services to all six counties actually engaged in a AFDC registrants who were mandatory activities proved to be similar across GAIN job search, education or training the full research sample, and rates for for JOBS. The other two focused exclu- activity following random assignment the full sample and the long-term recip- sively on long-term welfare recipients. (i.e. were “GAIN-treated”). Some cli- Welfare recipients who volunteered for ient subsample were quite similar. ents were not required to participate Also, GAIN participation rates for two- GAIN prior to being requested to apply over the period of the study — those parent families in the experimental were accepted into the study sample if who had obtained a full-time job, those they would later be defined as manda- group were roughly similar to those for who had left welfare for other reasons, single-parents in the experimental tory for GAIN and attended a GAIN those who were officially excused from group. However, in Los Angeles Coun- orientation session. participation due to part-time employ- ty a smaller proportion of two-parent ment or illness, and those who met oth- family heads participated in GAIN than GAIN’s Major Interventions er criteria leading to exemption. was true of single parents, due mainly The program involves comprehen- Attendance at orientation sessions, to part-time employment. And two-par- sive basic education and literacy, occu- involvement in client assessments and ent family heads appeared to be more pational training, and employment ser- appraisals, and initial meetings with likely to engage in basic education and vices in a three-track system. Clients case managers were not defined as participate in English as a Second Lan- passing a literacy test and possessing a “participation” in GAIN, and therefore guage, consistent with their needs as- high school diploma or GED usually were not considered “treatments” for sessments. must participate in job search. Others research purposes. The definition of may choose job search as a first ser- “participation” was confined to a cli-

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 71 Evaluation Issues and Activities

Based on a survey of GAIN staff in More specifically, in the second fol- similar growth patterns did not have the six study counties, and in-depth in- low-up year, and averaged across the this level of success. terviews with selected staff, other as- six counties, the earnings of members The lack of significant positive ef- pects of initial implementation were ex- of the experimental group were 24% fects for one of the other counties was plored. For example, local implemen- greater than those of the control group. also puzzling. This county placed less tation varied in terms of the emphasis This represented twice as large a gain emphasis on job placement and sanc- placed on 1) encouraging GAIN regis- as that found at the end of the one-year tioning, while providing highly person- trants to obtain more education and follow-up period. Welfare costs were alized services — but the combination training, 2) the degree of personalized reduced by 7%, a reduction 23% great- of influences that might explain the attention given to registrants, and 3) the er than in the first year. These differ- lower level of success was not entirely extent to which programs relied on the ences between experimental and con- clear. use of sanctions. The variation in local trol group members were statistically program contexts and environments significant. The research team suggested that more substantial impacts will likely de- seemed to be a function of the views For two-parent families, earnings in- administrators held about the most pend on expanding participation, pro- creased by 12% and welfare savings by cost-effective ways to carry out the viding different mixes and sequences of 7%, impacts similar to the first year. services, increasing work incentives, JOBS’ participation mandate while in- Earlier studies of programs for this creasing recipients’ employment and expanding child support resources, and group had shown no consistent earn- earnings, and reducing their reliance on providing work opportunities. And they ings impacts. Although some of the dif- cautioned that such programs alone AFDC. These views then shaped re- ferences were not statistically signifi- source allocation decisions. cannot be expected to move large num- cant, the gains for those considered not bers of welfare clients out of the wel- The influence of local economic in need of basic education were gener- fare system. conditions was also studied. All of ally larger than effects for those consid- these features of implementation were ered to need this activity, and larger Next Steps in the GAIN understood to be affecting initial pro- than those for long-term welfare cli- Evaluation gram impacts. And local-level imple- ents. This was consistent with the long- mentation changed over the study peri- er timeframe for the emergence of ef- Impacts over a longer follow-up od as GAIN became better established fects when basic education precedes period are yet to be estimated. The con- and evolved over time. other activities. Welfare savings dif- tinuing evaluation will also examine fered less across these groups. implementation features that may be Net Impacts Based on a Two- contributing to the effects. Future re- Year Follow-Up Period Results varied across the six coun- ports will be based on a survey of ties, with one county experiencing GAIN registrants and other data, in an In general, the experimental net im- earnings gains of 53% and welfare re- effort to study the role of implementa- pact evaluation answered several ques- ductions of 17%. Riverside County’s tion features and a wider array of out- tions raised by earlier studies of small- more pronounced positive impacts for comes, including educational attain- er-scale, less intensive and compre- earnings and welfare savings across all ment and a number of economic and hensive work/welfare initiatives: subgroups studied were difficult to ex- noneconomic outcomes. GAIN’s over- n It provided evidence that large- plain. The prior characteristics of ex- all costs vs. benefits will also be esti- scale, complex, multi-activity pro- perimentals did not seem to be different mated. enough to explain the results. But other grams can be implemented success- factors considered were: 1) program di- Florida’s Project Independence fully in a variety of local environ- rectors placed unusually strong empha- ments. sis on moving clients into jobs quickly, In the sense that it provides relative- ly low-cost job placement services to n It showed that programs such as including lower-paying jobs, even the majority of participants while offer- GAIN can change the basic charac- though they did not de-emphasize edu- cation and training, 2) the Riverside ing considerable amounts of education ter of AFDC, providing new oppor- program had a formal job development and training, Project Independence is tunities and requiring new responsi- component, 3) this program involved a generally similar to California’s GAIN bilities. unique combination of practices and Program. Like GAIN, it involves a large-scale experimental evaluation. n It confirmed that such programs can conditions, including stress on job de- velopment and placement, the provi- This has been made possible through have significant positive employ- state and federal funds and a grant from ment and earnings effects, particu- sion of education and training, and the use of sanctions, and 4) the county’s The Ford Foundation. Project Indepen- larly for single parents — and in economy was growing faster than in dence has therefore provided another some cases for long-term recipients the other sites. A better labor market social laboratory for studying JOBS’ — and can reduce welfare costs. was clearly not the deciding factor, effectiveness. however, since counties with somewhat

72 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Evaluation Issues and Activities

Operated since 1987, the program is viduals referred to the program (a 7% those with a child twelve or younger Florida’s statewide work/welfare strate- gain). This estimate included individu- who attended a project orientation ses- gy under the FSA. The evaluation is als who did not work, worked part- sion had received subsidized child care being conducted by MDRC in nine time, or worked less than year-round. at least once during the initial study pe- counties which were randomly selected Earnings gains were greatest for 1) in- riod. Most were satisfied with their from among the twenty-five with the dividuals defined as ‘job ready’ and child care arrangements. On the other largest AFDC caseloads — that is, subsequently referred to job search as hand, child care problems appeared to 18,000 single parents who were manda- their first program activity, and 2) sin- have interfered with the participation tory for JOBS (had children age three gle parents whose children were school of those with pre-school children. or older). The Florida evaluation is the age or older. Impacts for the latter first study reporting findings for single group were similar to those for the Research Design parents with preschool children. How- same group in GAIN. For single par- Random assignment occurred at ever, it is understood that the evalua- ents with preschool children, there welfare offices after AFDC application tion report summarized here is the first were no statistically significant earn- and recipients had been defined as report, and that subsequent reports will ings gains. mandatory for Project Independence be more definitive in terms of net im- Welfare payments were reduced, on participation, and before they were re- pact results. average, by nearly 7%. Savings for sin- ferred to and had attended the project’s orientation session. This assured re- Participation Rates gle parents with school-age children were at 11% during the first year. In searchers that for all practical purposes The participation rate in Project In- contrast, welfare savings for single par- the effects of the projects’ ‘treatments’ dependence was substantial — 77% of ents with preschool children were at could be captured in the experimental all mandatory clients attended a project 5%. For those clients who had received group, but it did not assure them that orientation; 56% of those attending lat- AFDC two years or more prior to in- all ‘experimentals’ would have actually er engaged in a program activity; of the volvement with Project Independence, engaged in the project’s activities (i.e. latter, 42% engaged in a job search ac- there was a large, statistically signifi- would have received its ‘treatments’). tivity and approximately 21% took part cant increase in earnings and a reduc- This meant that average impacts likely in an educational or training program. tion in AFDC payments. However, understated the value of the program. Although general participation rates there were no positive earnings impacts This qualification raises a fundamental were high, however, single parents with for first-time applicants and recipients question in experimental studies. Criti- preschool children participated less who had received AFDC less than two cal aspects in terms of interpreting re- than others, and, on average, individu- years, even though there were limited sults are the point at which random as- als engaged in program activities over a welfare savings for these two groups. signment occurs and the extent to short period, which reflects the greater Earnings gains and welfare savings oc- which the experimental group is actual- participation in job search. Those in ed- curred across the counties studies. The ly exposed to program interventions. ucational activities remained in them differences seemed related to pro- for an average of three months. Those grams’ administrative structures, ser- Comparison of Results with in training programs or community or vice emphases, relationships with local Other Evaluations of JOBS’ technical college occupational pro- service providers and employers, and Strategies grams remained in them an average of labor market conditions. However, the As mentioned, Project Indepen- six and one-half months. The full ef- research team cautioned readers to wait dence’s impact on first year earnings fects of education and training would, for the final evaluation report, which for single parents with school-age chil- therefore, not have been expected to would better capture the effects of edu- dren were similar to GAIN’s earnings emerge in this first-phase report. cation and training interventions. impacts although its impact was weaker Maintaining satisfactory participa- in terms of welfare savings. The differ- Other Insights from the Study tion rates as the project evolved left un- ences were likely related to differences certainties. Typically, caseloads per Both staff and clients appeared to in program models, and the research case manager grew to more than two view the project positively. More than designs and sampling strategies used by hundred clients during the first year half of its clients rated the degree to the evaluators: study period. Only about thirty percent which staff were helpful in dealing n Random assignment: In GAIN, of these case managers monitored their with barriers to participation and en- random assignment occurred follow- caseloads closely in terms of program hancing their ability to obtain employ- ing project orientation; in Indepen- participation for sanctioning purposes ment as “very high.” Two-thirds of the and for resolving emerging problems. staff felt that program services were dence it took place at the point of genuinely benefiting clients. Eighty- application to AFDC or assessment Net Impacts in the Early Phase one percent of clients thought it was of continuing eligibility. Therefore the Independence study sample in- The program produced first-year ‘fair’ to impose financial sanctions for earnings gains of $157/person for indi- noncompliance. Approximately 19% of cluded a higher proportion of indi-

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 73 Evaluation Issues and Activities

viduals who ultimately were not re- barriers to the incorporation of edu- n Program operators face a special ferred to the state’s version of JOBS cation within welfare programs and challenge regarding clients who and did not receive information evaluating the impact of educational have entered educational programs about it. interventions. prior to JOBS participation, in terms of assessing the appropriateness of n Targeting of services: Indepen- n Program strategies that encourage those prior choices, and recommend- dence emphasized short-term job and increase the school enrollment ing other alternatives that may better search-oriented services over educa- and attendance of welfare clients fit clients’ needs and interests and tion and training; GAIN emphasized who have not attained basic educa- local labor market opportunities. basic education. tion proficiencies are critical fea- tures of efforts to link education n Judging ‘satisfactory progress’ in edu- n Grant levels and economic envi- with other services provided by cational programs is problematic. ronments: The two projects were work/welfare reforms. dealing with different opportunity n Too little attention is paid to linking structures and supports. Based on interviews with program job search and placement services to staff in five states, the researchers educational programs. The importance of the similarities in gained these insights and recommenda- net effects, however, cannot be ig- tions: n Funding issues influence the capaci- nored. Both the replication of generally ty and willingness of educational similar program models and experi- n Little attention was being given to providers to accomodate the needs mental evaluation approaches lends determining the quality of educa- of welfare clients and to collaborate great credence to the effectiveness of tional programs under JOBS. with welfare and employment agen- such large-scale programs in producing n cies. significant earnings gains and welfare Adaptations to traditional education- savings. al programs must be made in order The states and local communities to respond to the different character- examined in the study provided inter- Work/Welfare Programs istics and needs of the welfare popu- esting and useful ideas for improving Incorporating Education lation compared to the usual student inter-institutional linkages, such as: population: their lower average mo- In Linking Welfare and Education, 1. Admitting welfare clients into exist- tivation and achievement; their Edward Pauly and colleagues draw four ing programs in which they have not higher incidence of personal and major lessons from a study of new been incorporated traditionally, such work/welfare programs in California, health problems; their greater need as Job Corps and Carl Perkins Florida, Ohio, Oklahoma and Wiscon- for support services; and the fact single-parent programs. sin: that their participation in education- n Education programs directed to wel- al programs is frequently not fully 2. Creating one-stop single-site wel- fare clients — both youth and adults voluntary. fare-education provision to JOBS clients. — have grown substantially in re- n New strategies for increasing consis- cent years and this growth is likely tent attendance on the part of wel- 3. Developing new management infor- to continue due to the consensus fare clients in educational programs mation systems that link data across among welfare experts that educa- are needed. welfare and education programs. tion is a key ingredient in increasing n 4. Welding ‘dropout recovery’ to par- economic self-sufficiency. Planning for the inclusion of welfare clients in educational programs, in ticipation in alternative schools. n Historically, education and welfare terms of estimating the number of 5. Cross-training and reallocating re- programs have had different organi- new slots needed, has been difficult, sponsibility across case managers zational missions and goals, funding which often translates to reduced and other staff involved in AFDC arrangements, targeting priorities, participation. and JOBS. management information systems, and incentives to clients to take ad- n Welfare and employment agencies 6. Creating incentives to increase cli- vantage of their services. Therefore, must cope with and adapt to the ents’ attendance in educational pro- building linkages between education range of different educational pro- grams. viders operating within communi- and welfare institutions has been 7. Using JOBS funds to hire communi- difficult. ties, such as school districts, com- munity and technical colleges, ty-based organizations to provide n Interagency negotiation and collabo- community-based organizations and support services. ration across education and welfare public E&T programs. ‘territories’ are essential in reducing

74 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Evaluation Issues and Activities

nn 8. Developing innovative computer-as- Riccio, J. and S. Freedman. GAIN: Ear- Reform ‘Welfare’ or sisted basic education classes in En- ly Implementation Experiences and glish as a Second Language, GED Lessons. New York, NY: MDRC, Reform ‘Welfare 1989. and Adult Basic Education. Virginia’s Reducing Dependency Reform’? 9. Establishing mentoring programs. Through Training Program. State of A Guest Review by VA: Governor’s Employment and 10. Providing state matching funds for Training Department, 1990. Kay Thode creative demonstration projects. Guy, C., F. Doolittle, and B. Fink. Self- Former Director Employment for Welfare Clients: Im- Health and Welfare Some Conclusions plementation of the SEID Program. Seattle Urban League While a very selective overview, the MDRC, 1991. evaluations summarized here reveal North Carolina JOBS Evaluation: Study both the difficulties in moving large of Twelve County Programs. Univer- This article is a review of Laurence numbers of welfare clients out of the sity of NC: Human Services Re- welfare system and into mainstream re- search and Design Laboratory, E. Lynn, Jr.’s article, “Ending Welfare Reform As We Know It,” which ap- tentive and family-sustaining jobs, and 1992. peared in the Fall 1993 issue of The the importance of producing incremen- Auspos, P. and K. Sherwood. Assess- tal though significant gains in earnings ing JOBS Participants. MDRC, 1992. American Prospect. Lynn is a member of the Social Service Administration and welfare savings in current pro- Pauly, E., D. Long and K. Martinson. and Public Policy Studies faculties at grams. Comprehensive, multiple-track, Linking Welfare and Education: A the University of Chicago. He is co-au- high-participation education, training Study of New Programs in Five thor with David Whitman of The Presi- and employment efforts appear to gen- States. MDRC, 1992. dent As Policy Maker: Jimmy Carter erate the most benefits, particularly for Riccio, J. and D. Friedlander. GAIN: single mothers with school age children and Welfare Reform, published by Program Strategies, Participation Temple University Press in 1981, and who now predominate in the welfare Patterns, and First-Year Impacts in author of The State and Human Servic- system. Tying education more closely Six Counties. MDRC, 1992. to anti-poverty strategies also seems to es: Organizational Change in a Politi- Bardach, E. Improving the Productivity cal Context, published by MIT Press in be critical. But the American penchant of JOBS Programs. MDRC, 1993. 1980. for decentralizing anti-poverty and job Friedlander, D., J. Riccio and S. Freed- training strategies leads to so much man. GAIN: Two-Year Impacts in Six Overview state and local diversity that it is very Counties. MDRC, 1993. difficult to draw conclusions about Lynn’s thesis is that traditional ap- Lurie, I. and J. Hagen. Implementing proaches to welfare reform are based what program approaches really work JOBS: The Initial Design and Struc- best for different segments of the pov- ture of Local Programs. State Uni- on ways of thinking and research meth- erty population in different program versity of New York: Nelson A. Rock- ods that fail to acknowledge the deteri- environments. All the report cards are efeller Institute of Government, orating labor market and the sharply not yet in. And this acts as an inscruta- 1993. growing inequality of earnings. He sug- ble impediment to the development of Evaluation of the JOB Connection Con- gests that meaningful “welfare reform” a national poverty policy. tracted Programs: First Annual Re- requires a revision of the current notion port. Washington, D.C.: Maximus, of welfare reform itself. Editor’s Note 1994. Lynn finds fault with previous wel- Kemple, J. and J. Haimson. Florida’s For more information on the studies fare reform approaches for their failure Project Independence: Program Im- to address the persistence of poverty. summarized above, and other evalua- plementation, Participation Patterns tios of JOBS programs, please see the He criticizes the efforts of the Working and First-Year Impacts. MDRC, Group on Welfare Reform, Family following in order of their publication 1994. date: Support, and Independence, for its fail- The Minority Female Single Parent ure to recognize the realities of the cur- Demonstration: Process Analysis of rent labor market. He explains the per- Program Operations. Princeton, NJ: sistence of past approaches in terms of Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., the effects of research and evaluation 1988. methods, of the nature of the political sponsorship of policy analyses, and of ideology. He proposes a variety of poli- cy options that reflect the need to pro- vide economic opportunities for all Americans.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 75 Evaluation Issues and Activities

Critique of Welfare Reform opportunity such as racial discrimina- pressure on wages will worsen due to Approaches tion by employers, lack of day care or competition from low-wage economies, non-availability of low-skill jobs. A technological change, deregulation of The aim of traditional approaches to second focuses on the behaviors of industries and structural economic welfare reform has been to reduce pov- erty via employment. The Working poor people, such as out-of-wedlock changes which increase demands for births, dropping out of school, and anti- more skilled workers. Group continues an approach which social behaviors. A third deals with has narrowed the focus of reform to a The deterioration in the earnings preoccupation with the dependency of lack of job skills. prospects of the less skilled has result- single parents who are long-term recip- Despite the increased barriers to ed in a 2% decrease in the real incomes ients of Aid to Families With Depen- economic mobility in the 1980’s, poli- of those in the poorest one-fifth of the dent Children (AFDC) rather than with cy emphasis has been on life styles or income distribution, making it increas- the original concern for fighting pover- lack of skills. The goal of all three ap- ingly difficult for low-income families ty at its roots. Lynn claims that this ap- proaches has been and continues to be to earn their way out of poverty in the proach increasingly relies on penalties to increase the incomes of the poorest legitimate economy. rather than services to channel recipi- families via employment, rather than ents into jobs. The obsession with re- addressing income inequality per se. Policy Implications ducing the welfare dependency of sin- Income maintenance, the cheapest Lynn suggests that the policy impli- gle mothers stems from the ideological and simplest method of increasing fam- cations of the decline in job opportuni- view that welfare subverts family life ily income has been discredited be- ties and in real wages are that persis- and the work ethic. cause it is presumed to reduce work ef- tently poor women on AFDC will need Other policy researchers offer an al- fort. Lynn believes policies aimed at considerably higher skills to improve ternative view which focuses on grow- increasing income by getting welfare their economic prospects. He is con- ing earnings and income inequality, mothers into jobs through lowering cerned that the allocations for the Fam- and which recommends policies to barriers to work have been unsuccess- ily Support Act’s JOBS program, and ameliorate the effects of structural un- ful as measures to reduce poverty or to the two year training period that is part employment and to improve labor force improve economic mobility. of the Administration’s plan, are too meager to support necessary skill im- productivity. However, Lynn feels this The failure of past policies designed research has had little impact on the provements. He also points out that to reduce poverty via work or changing welfare reform debate, which continues many support services will be needed counter-productive behaviors has been to make it possible for young welfare to direct attention to poor women not in blamed on factors such as mounting the labor market. mothers to become part of the paid la- federal deficits, limited social welfare bor force, particularly if upward mobil- Lynn regards central aspects of the budgets, and the behavior of the poor, ity is the goal. Working Group’s proposals as damag- rather than on the fact that the policies ing and senseless because they propose were based on faulty premises. Lynn Also of concern is the possibility to push marginally prepared welfare says the ineffectiveness of the policies that those women who do get jobs may mothers into a labor force that has a de- has not led to a reexamination of the do so at the expense of the economic clining capacity to absorb them, and premises. prospects for low-skilled men who are increasingly unable to pay child sup- into jobs which offer little prospect of Lynn argues that the Administra- escaping poverty. No value is placed on port. In that event, the result is not a re- tion’s welfare reform proposal also is the jobs women perform as parents and duction in aggregate poverty but sim- based on the view that putting people ply a “sex change.” Nor can welfare homemakers. The problem is com- to work will eliminate the need for wel- pounded by government policies that reform by itself overcome racial dis- fare except as transitional assistance, encourage part-time employment and crimination in hiring which must also despite the pervasive increase in earn- be addressed if blacks are to become downsizing of government programs ings inequality that has occurred for that offer career opportunities. The re- economically mobile. both men and women, in both manufac- sult, he says, is that economic mobility turing and service sectors, and for those Lynn cites other researchers who be- for the poor is declining and low-in- of varying age, experience and educa- lieve that a more generous safety net come families are likely to remain tional levels. The consequences have may be necessary along with policies poor. been particularly devastating for those designed to improve skills, even in a The current welfare reform debate at the bottom of the skill ladder. The booming economy. Others believe the reflects ways of thinking about poverty problem is compounded by racial dis- government must be more active in en- and research methods that have become crimination in hiring. couraging private companies to invest an orthodoxy. Lynn says three kinds of in the job skills of non-college educat- Both employment and wages have explanations have been advanced to ex- ed workers, and that an expanded ap- been declining for low-skill workers prenticeship program should be devel- plain the persistence of family poverty. because of increased demand for those One focuses on barriers to economic oped along with improvements in the with higher order skills. The downward nation’s high schools.

76 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Evaluation Issues and Activities

Welfare Reform Orthodoxy Lynn proposes that policy makers Resource Commitments Remains should encourage states to spend four Lynn emphasizes that policies that years making JOBS and the Family Despite empirical evidence of wid- emerge from a focus on long-term eco- Support Act work humanely. He sug- ening income inequality and diminish- nomic opportunity will require mam- ing economic opportunity at the bot- gests that liberals should fight for in- moth resource commitments, on the or- centives and ways to change the admin- tom, the Administration’s welfare der of $60 billion for worker training, istration of welfare, and should exper- reform policy group and others contin- unemployment insurance for displaced ue to focus on the normative behavior iment with ways to develop effective workers, and changes in AFDC. The welfare-to-work transitions and to eval- of women on welfare, according to choice is to spend the money on these uate their long-term as well as immedi- Lynn. This normative focus is ex- programs, or later on the predictable plained by Joel Handler and Yeheskel ate consequences. consequences of economic failure. Hasenfeld (see The Moral Construction More specifically, Lynn suggests Lynn feels it is imperative for the of Poverty, Sage Press, 1991) as being that AFDC be segmented into three Administration to use its power to shift due to the fact that social welfare poli- populations: the premise and focus of welfare reform cy is a set of symbols targeted as much n Young, disadvantaged mothers with from short-run legislative victories with at the nonpoor as at the poor, to convey AFDC to skills, jobs and choice leading desired social behaviors. It is not in- no skills. to materially rewarding careers for tended to “solve the problem of pover- n Temporarily poor women in need of those who can take advantage of them, ty.” short-term help. and to a humane, family-preserving Lynn cites a number of reasons for n Older women not likely to fit into welfare system for others. the increasingly narrow focus on the the labor market, for whom support behavior of women on welfare. Some Commentary services and SSI would be appropri- nominally liberal policy intellectuals ate. Lynn’s article would have been are convinced that AFDC promotes strengthened if he had developed more self-defeating behavior. Others believe He claims that appropriate supports fully his view that the Working “making work pay” will make AFDC for the three groups are needed along Group’s welfare reform proposal fos- less attractive in the long term. with restoration of the real value of ters a widening gender gap between Lynn argues that the emphasis on AFDC benefits and adequately finan- second-rate “welfare work” programs norms is to a significant degree due to ced family support services. for women and labor department “in- research and evaluation methods that In addition, he believes that pro- come work” programs for men. make inequality a peripheral concern grams to promote work and productivi- Lynn’s argument that current wel- because attention is focused on sheer ty should be gender-neutral, non-puni- fare orthodoxy is to a large degree due labor market outcomes whose cost-ef- tive, based on labor market analysis, to favored research and evaluation fectiveness is evaluated in terms of the and administered by labor departments methods which evaluate programs on net present value of earnings gains. not welfare departments. the basis of earnings gains could also He also suggests that timid political Lynn urges that a new national de- have been made clearer. He seems to leaders are afraid to challenge en- bate is needed on earnings inequality contradict himself when he says that at- trenched interests or to propose policies and poverty and their consequences. tention is devoted to behavioral vari- that require significant new resources. Researchers should identify and ac- ables, but then states that program in- And conservative ideology generates count for: terventions are typically evaluated by fear of the poor to whom are attributed their cost-effectiveness in terms of n Trends in pre-transfer earnings dis- low morality and anti-social behavior. earnings gains, even though the under- tributions and their implications for lying problem of dependency has been Reforming “Reform” families. diagnosed as cultural and behavioral. Any attempt to end welfare as we n The careers of different cohorts in Lynn’s belief that it is morally ab- know it, Lynn contends, must recog- terms of age, skill and race-ethnicity. surd to base welfare reform on requir- nize that welfare is a life preserver and ing ill-prepared women to move into a n that a robust economy will not elimi- The economic mobility of all classes. labor market that cannot absorb them nate poverty. It is a hoax, he says, to Reformers should focus also on the or that will perpetuate their poverty is promise to make AFDC transitional as- quality of secondary schools; the role shared by many. A 1992 Census Bu- sistance while restricting welfare out- of community colleges in transition to reau report projected that through the lays, when low-skill job opportunities work; discriminatory hiring processes; year 2000, the bulk of an expected 36 and wages are collapsing. Welfare re- and strategies for improving socio-eco- million new jobs will be low-wage form, in the sense of remaking AFDC, nomic mobility for those with little cashier, clerk, waitress and hospital is not the key weapon in the fight chance for upward mobility. cleaning positions. Between 1987 and against non-work and poverty. 1989, 42% of newly created jobs paid a

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 77 Evaluation Issues and Activities

mean hourly wage of $4.62. These data plest and cheapest way of increasing Editorial Commentary buttress Lynn’s view that forcing wel- the income of poor families, reduces fare mothers into such jobs will make work effort. The effect appears to be Clearly the debate over anti-poverty the existence of their families even negligible. strategies has not ended and will con- more precarious. tinue to benefit from evaluation efforts As Lynn indicates, the obsessive as new program models are tested. As It would have been useful if Lynn preoccupation with single mothers on yet we have little experience with or in- had expanded on his concern that cur- AFDC is ideological. Blaming the poor formation about comprehensive, inten- rent and past welfare reform policies for their poverty and focusing on em- sive education, training and employ- place no value on the work women per- ployment as the way to reduce poverty ment programs that involve a large form as parents and homemakers or on makes it possible to ignore the issue of proportion of welfare caseloads, and training them to be competent, attentive income inequality. we remain politically resistant to univer- parents. This is particularly critical in salistic solutions to poverty and the There is reason to believe that the is- the light of a recent study which indi- problems of the near-poor. As poverty sue of income inequality is far more continues to increase, despite general cates that the quality of day care avail- significant than the problem of welfare economic growth, and the social prob- able to many working parents who rely dependency. Less than one percent of lems that are well-established corre- on “family” day care is poor or custodi- the federal budget is consumed by lates of poverty become more perva- al care. Thirty-five percent of the “fam- AFDC payments. But the growing in- sive in affecting the life quality of the ily” day care providers studied by the non-poor, we may finally embrace the come gap is confirmed by 1989 federal need for a national family policy. New York-based Families and Work income tax returns which showed that Institute did a poor job and 56% gave the top 4% of American wage earners only custodial care. Such care does not (3.8 million individuals and families) provide the stimulation which children earned as much in total wages and sala- under age three need for their develop- ries as the bottom 51% (49.2 million ment according to a Carnegie Corpora- individuals and families). tion report. Lynn points out that the earnings Current welfare reform proposals gains from welfare-to-work policies fail to recognize that AFDC was origi- and job training are far too small to al- nally put in place to allow women with- leviate poverty or to improve economic out husbands (at that time widows) to mobility. 1992 Census data which indi- remain at home because it was unrea- cate that 44% of the 7.7 million single sonable to expect one person to bear mothers who were working either full the burden of performing the three or part-time were poor confirm his roles of parenting, homemaking and view. The median income of the wom- breadwinning. Perhaps welfare policy en was $9,353. should once again recognize the roles women perform as parents and home- Lynn calls for a new national debate makers as “socially useful work” de- and research on earnings inequality, serving of financial support. poverty and the consequences of both. Let us hope his plea will not fall on In this context, there is evidence deaf ears. from the Seattle - Denver Income Maintenance study that contradicts the view that income maintenance, the sim-

78 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

Selected Federal Research In Education, Training, Employment, and Economic Development

Editorial Introduction between workforce policy and econom- formation about their research agendas ic development efforts. Third, at all lev- and activities. We apologize for any in- els of the workforce system in the U.S. accuracies in the reporting, and again Issue #9 of Evaluation Forum provid- — national, state and local — research- caution readers that the information be- ed an overview of selected nationally- ers and research users in different or- low is selective, representing only a funded research projects completed or ganizational territories often do not segment of the activities of these enti- in progress at the U.S. Department of know what each others’ projects are or ties. We found the response from staff Labor, the U.S. Department of Health in what form the information from these contacts to be consistently enthusiastic and Human Services, and the National projects is disseminated. and extremely helpful. We hope that Commission for Employment Policy. federal agency staff working on re- Over forty completed studies, and ap- This rationale led the editor to test search projects will feel free to send us proximately sixty in-progress evalua- the utility of providing information on information on their activities at any tions were described, and the research analyses and evaluations conducted time, for use in this section of the jour- firms responsible for each study were across workforce preparation and eco- nal. identified. nomic development agencies at the na- tional level, with the hope that this At the end of this portion of the Re- An entirely new effort was initiated would provide useful information to sources Section, we have illustrated with Issue #10 of Evaluation Forum. readers and might also stimulate sourc- the work of major national research The search for information on national- es of national research to mount a com- firms through the activities of several level research of importance to state mon effort to pull together the informa- selected organizations. These are ex- and local users was expanded to feder- tion available from significant research emplars only, based on a request for in- al agencies additional to those included activities. formation sent to a large number of in the Issue #9 overview. In this first attempt, we acknowledge firms. We hope that such firms will feel There were several reasons motivat- that the information we have been able free to send us information on their ing this attempt. First, state and local to obtain is very selective and is un- projects as they are initiated or com- information users involved in the provi- even in what is covered and at what pleted. sion of workforce education, training level of detail. However, the series of In conclusion, we refer readers to and employment services often lack in- charts below represent a beginning the Organization for Economic Cooper- formation about federally-funded re- step toward a longer-range goal of pro- ation and Development (OECD) for re- search on workforce preparation and viding updated information on research search on international issues relevant labor market issues which can benefit activities across major federal agen- to education, workforce training, and them in developing state and local cies, as an ongoing feature of Evalua- employment. No-cost publication lists workforce policy and in operating pro- tion Forum. are available by contacting OECD’s grams. Second, there is a strong move- American outlet: OECD Publications ment at the national, state and local We are very grateful to the many and Information Center in Washington, level in the direction of an integration of staff in the agencies below who took D.C., at 202-785-6323. workforce development missions, goals the time to respond to a request for in- and programs, with a stronger linkage

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 79 Resources

U.S. Department of Labor

The Department of Labor sponsors a Special Studies. The Foreign Economic tional Center for the Workplace. A recent large body of policy analyses, program Research Division within the Bureau of In- report of interest from this new office is evaluations and policy research. Issue #9 ternational Labor Affairs is an additional “High Performance Work Practices and of Evaluation Forum provided a detailed source. And the Office of Inspector Gen- Firm Performance.” Also, the Depart- overview of recent research sponsored by eral sponsors and conducts performance ment’s Office of Work-Based Learning is the Office of Strategic Planning and Poli- audits of ETA programs. a source of analyses of workforce prepa- cy Development (OSPPD) of the Employ- The Department’s new Office of the ration and development issues. ment and Training Administration (ETA). American Workplace sponsors policy anal- Because Issue #9 covered much of the Another major source of research is the yses and some research, particularly recent research sponsored by OSPPD, we Bureau of Labor Statistics, particularly its through its Commission on the Future of include here only the most recent projects. Office of Research and Evaluation, Office Worker-Management Committees and Na- of Economic Research, and Division of

Office of Strategic Planning and Policy Development

Recent Demonstration Projects

Issue Area Title/Purpose/Contractor Issue Area Title/Purpose/Contractor

Literacy Jobs for Literacy Skills Youth, continued Transition-to-Work Demonstrations To identify and test options for analyzing the for Disabled Youth literacy skills needed for jobs as part of the New To support a joint HHS/DOL effort to develop Database of Occupational Titles, and develop model transition programs. options for defining Workplace Basic Skills de- ASPE, HHS scriptors in the new database. North Carolina Employment Out-of-School Youth Projects Security Commission To assist in determining better ways to provide effective E&T services to economically-disad- Workplace Literacy: Validation vantaged out-of-school youth, and to develop and Implementation Project program models. To test DOL’s workplace literacy assessment National Urban League instrument, provide technical assistance to demonstration sites in using scores in training, Focus HOPE School-to-Work Project develop a management information system for To demonstrate the value of extending JTPA- recording and updating test records, and con- sponsored training to qualify young minority duct a validity study. adults and others for new, complex skill require- Educational Testing Service ments in computer-integrated manufacturing. Center for Advanced Technologies Youth Youth Research and Technical Assistance Project Careers Match Program In the process of being developed. To develop an approach for preparing at-risk, Center for Human Resources, Brandeis inner-city youth for the school-to-work transi- University, and Public/Private Ventures tion. Cincinnati Public Schools Youth Year-Round Training Demonstration To link regular and summer school academic Youth Fair Chance Demonstration and work experience programs to assure that To create and operate alternative high schools the learning acquired is reinforced on a year- for dropouts, including the provision of employ- round basis. ment and social support services to students Center for Human Resources, Brandeis and their families. University, and Public/Private Ventures Women PREP, Inc. Partnership Program High School Career Academies To increase access for women and minorities Demonstration to apprenticeable and primary labor market oc- To test a school restructuring and school-to- cupations, particularly skilled crafts. work transition model providing an intensive three-to-four-year educational experience for at- Immigrants Immigrant Demonstration Project risk youth. Its effectiveness will be evaluated To provide E&T to immigrants. using an experimental design. Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation next column Department of Labor chart continues.

80 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

Department of Labor, continued

Issue Area Title/Purpose/Contractor Issue Area Title/Purpose/Contractor

Unemployment Job Search Demonstration tance and support to owners or potential own- To identify alternative ways to assist unem- ers of a microenterprise. ployed workers in D.C., Florida, and Wiscon- sin to become re-employed through counsel- Employers TEAMS Learning Consortia Project ing, job search workshops and training. To develop and implement several workforce Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. development projects involving consortia of small and mid-sized firms — to address these JTPA Pre-Employment Skills Training Program firms’ training and technical assistance needs To train and place JTPA-eligible individuals, and to develop models for producing highly- particularly youth and displaced workers, in skilled workforces linked to high performance training-related employment. workplace goals. National Tooling and Manufacturing Association Department of Commerce

Statistical Support for Homelessness Homeless Job Training Demonstration Performance Standards Demonstration To support demonstrations authorized by the To incorporate customer feedback and contin- McKinney Act. uous improvement into performance manage- ment. Workforce System Model Integrated Performance Social Policy Research Associates Performance Management Approach Management To supplement NGA’s and the Joyce Founda- EDWAA Farmer and Rancher tion’s test of a model approach for integrating Demonstration performance management across workforce To test innovative, replicable and effective ap- development initiatives: school-to-work; work- proaches for providing outreach and job train- er retraining; and economic self-sufficiency. ing. National Governors’ Association Michigan Department of Jobs and Training Use of UI Wage Records for EDWAA Job Creation Demonstration JTPA Performance Management To provide a series of twelve goal-setting ses- To study the use of UI wage records as an al- sions on job creation and small business man- ternative to the JTPA follow-up survey, for per- agement, with extensive follow-up. formance management purposes. Berkeley Planning Associates Capacity Building Capacity Building Challenge Grants Skill Centers Job Training 2000 Demonstration To develop innovative ways to provide new or To demonstrate “One-Stop Skill Center” objec- improved training services at the line staff lev- tives in Wisconsin. el. Selected PICS Information Training Technology Resource Center Community Community College Capacity Building Production and To develop an information network involving College Education To enhance the capability of a network of com- Dissemination linkages between DOL and external organiza- munity colleges to deliver quality training to dis- tions, conduct data acquisition and analysis, located, incumbent and youth workers. disseminate information, provide technical as- American Association of Community Colleges sistance, and respond to user needs and re- quirements. Job Development Microenterprise Grant Program Fu Associates To develop the capacity to provide effective business-related training to individuals devel- oping a microenterprise, and technical assis- next column

Recent Research Projects

Issue Area Purpose/Contractor Issue Area Purpose/Contractor

YouthTo study the effectiveness of Florida’s summer Youth, continued To evaluate the Youth Fair Chance Demonstration. youth program. MDC, Inc. To study the effectiveness of the Alternative Schools Demonstration using an experimental To conduct a national impact evaluation of the design. Job Corps. Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. Mathematica Policy Research,Inc. next column

Department of Labor chart continues.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 81 Resources

Department of Labor, continued

Issue Area Purpose/Contractor Issue Area Purpose/Contractor

Youth, continued To evaluate the outcomes of the second round JTPA, continued To provide information about the remedial edu- of School-to-Work Demonstration Projects, and cation component of the summer youth pro- to develop an inventory of best practices. gram, and through intensive case studies to rec- Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. ommend ways to improve it. James Bell Associates To evaluate the statewide School-to-Work Tran- sition System — its development and imple- To track the long-term impacts of the National mentation — in a select group of states. JTPA Study’s research sample over a longer Policy Studies Associates follow-up period using UI and IRS data, and to investigate issues of interest to the job training To evaluate the YOU Demonstration Program policy community. regarding its effects on youth employment, teen Abt Associates pregnancy, drug use, juvenile delinquency, school truancy and high school completion. Service Delivery To identify best practices in assessment, case Academy for Educational Development management and contracting. Hispanics SRI International To develop and implement a longitudinal study of the socio- economic status and labor market Unemployment To evaluate the implementation of Section 401 experiences of a sample of Hispanic house- Insurance of the Unemployment Compensation Amend- holds, as part of the Panel Study of Income Dy- ments of 1992, including short-time compen- namics longitudinal survey. sation programs across the U.S. Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan Economic To evaluate the Job Creation Demonstration op- Homelessness Development erated by Community Development Corpora- To supplement funding to the Census Bureau tions in cooperation with EDWAA grantees, in to pre-test a national survey designed to esti- terms of its effectiveness in creating entrepre- mate the number of homeless who utilize vari- neurial and other employment opportunities for ous services. dislocated workers. Census Bureau Berkeley Planning Associates

To evaluate the Job Training for the Homeless Evaluation To provide “rapid response” evaluation capac- Demonstration and provide technical assistance Strategies ity for E&T programs funded by DOL designed to increase services to this group. to gather data, conduct data analyses, and pre- James Bell Associates pare quick turnaround reports on specific job JTPA training and employment issues. To identify and assess major organizational, ad- Westat, Inc. ministrative and operational designs, process- es and problems in implementing the JTPA amendments. James Bell Associates next column

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Recent Research Projects

Issue Area Project Issue Area Project

Labor Market A continuation of the set of National Longitudi- Labor Market en, young men, and young women — and those Experience nal Surveys (NLS) begun in the 1960s (man- Experience, studied through the 1979 National Longitudinal aged by the Center for Human Resource Re- continued Survey of Youth. The Youth Survey was the search, Ohio State University) to collect result of a five-year cooperative effort between information on current labor force and employ- the BLS and the National Center for Research ment status, work history, the characteristics on Vocational Education. The design of the sur- of current/last jobs held, and a range of influ- veys has been the responsibility of the Bureau ences affecting labor market behavior. The NLS of the Census and the National Opinion Re- is the oldest longitudinal data collection effort search Center at the University of Chicago. In in the U.S., having collected information over a the 1980s, reductions in the federal budget end- quarter of a century on the labor force partici- ed data collection on two of the four cohorts. pation of five groups: older men, mature wom- next column

Department of Labor chart continues.

82 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

Department of Labor, continued

Issue Area Project Issue Area Project

Training Provided A national survey of employers to determine Foreign Invest- A study of the distribution of occupations in for- by Employers the nature and extent of training subsidized and/ ments in U.S. eign-owned manufacturing establishments in or provided by employers. the U.S., including differences among occupa- next column tions by industry and investor company.

Selected Recent Reports Based on NLS Data

Issue Area Title Issue Area Title

Youth “The Effects of Unemployment Compensation Work history “Work Experience, Job Separation, and Wage on the Unemployment of Youth” Growth”

“Participation in Low-Wage Labor Markets by Training “The Determinants and Consequences of Pub- Young Men” lic Sector and Private Sector Training”

Work and Family Series: “Employer-Provided “Training Among Adults: Who, What Kind, and Training Among Young Adults” for How Long?”

Gender Issues “Gender Differences in the Quit Behavior of Worker Mobility “Evaluating Competing Theories of Worker Young Workers” Mobility”

“The Impact of Private Sector Training on Race Family Background “Family Background and Labor Market Out- and Gender Wage Differentials and the Career and Employment comes” Patterns of Young Workers”

“A Study of Intercohort Change in Women’s Work Patterns and Earnings” next column

Projects Funded by OSPPD but Operated by BLS

Issue Area Project Issue Area Project

Dislocation and Provision of supportive services and alterna- Dislocation, determine the length of time between receiving Homelessness tive shelter and housing to homeless persons continued advanced notice and layoff; and answer other residing near public transit facilities, and a dis- questions about their situation. located workers’ survey jointly sponsored by DOL, HHS, HUD and the Department of Agri- Labor Market A review of the nation’s labor market informa- culture. Information tion needs and products, involving the use of available resources in BLS, ETA, the National Addition of questions to the CPS questionnaire Occupational Information Coordinating Commit- to identify displaced workers; determine when tee, the LMI committee of the Interstate Con- they were displaced; identify what type of job ference of Employment Security Agencies, and they held and the reasons they were displaced; state employment agencies. next column

Department of Labor chart continues.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 83 Resources

Department of Labor, continued Bureau of International Labor Statistics (BLS)

Recent Reports in the Economic Discussion Paper Series

Issue Area Report Issue Area Report

Workforce “Is Job Stability Declining in the U.S. Economy?” Workforce Prepara- “A Special Focus on Employment Growth in Preparation tion, continued Business Services and Retail Trade” (also in “Analysis of the Dislocated Workers’ Education- Skills, Wages and Productivity in the Service al Training Program” Sector, 1990)

“U.S. Labor Market Adjustment Programs” Employment & “Helping Poland Cope with Unemployment” Unemployment (also in Monthly Labor Review, 1990) “Trade-Sensitive U.S. Industries: Employment Trends and Worker Characteristics” (also in Trade A number of papers on trade relations and pol- Monthly Labor Review, 1993) icies, and international economic integration.

“The Quality of U.S. Jobs” (also in The Service Industries Journal, 1988) next column

Recent Working Papers

Issue Area Paper Issue Area Paper

Job Training “Source of Training and Its Influence on Wages” International “Income Sufficiency vs. Poverty: Results from Issues, continued the U.S. and The Netherlands” “Training, Tenure and Cost Sharing” “Employment Dimensions of Economic Restruc- “Gender Differences in Training, Capital, and turing: A Review of Related Labor Policies and Wages” (also in Journal of Human Resources, Programs in Industrialized Countries” (also pub- 1993) lished by the World Bank, 1991)

Wages in “Employer Effects on Earnings and Tenure” “The Importance of a Social Dimension for Employment Western Assistance in Poland”

Education “Wages, Family Background, and Endogenous “Facilitating Worker Adjustment: Canada’s IAS Schooling” Program” (also in Entrepreneurial Economy, 1986) Poverty “An Evaluation of Subjective Poverty” “Evaluations of Programs in Industrialized Worker “Changes in Industrial Structure of Job Dis- Countries to Assist Workers Displaced by Struc- Dislocation placements: Evidence from Displaced Worker tural Change: A Summary (also in Issue #7 of Surveys” Evaluation Forum)

“The Effect of Trade Liberalization on Workers “Structural Change and Labor Market Adjust- and the Ability of Trade Adjustment Assistance ment: A U.S.-Japan Comparison” (also in to Offset Costs” Monthly Labor Review, 1989)

“The Economic Consequences of Jobless Du- “Labor Adjustment Policies and Practices in ration for Displaced Workers” Europe”

“Designing Trade Adjustment Policies” “International Seminar on the Effects of Struc- tural Change on Employment and Education “Does Training Work for Displaced Workers? A and Training in the Service Sector: A Summa- Survey of Existing Evidence” ry”

International “U.S. and The Netherlands” (also in Review of Issues Income and Wealth, 1991) next column

Department of Labor chart continues.

84 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

Department of Labor, continued Office of the Inspector General Recent Performance Audits

Issue Area Purpose of Audit Issue Area Purpose of Audit

JTPA Title II-A To examine whether employment barriers for JTPA, continued To study the level of utilization of 1992 supple- participants were being identified and ad- mental funding for the Summer Youth Employ- dressed, what kinds of training and other as- ment and Training Program. sistance were being provided and at what cost, and what participants’ outcomes were. To explore specific issues of interest, particu- larly the role of PICs. To study the extent to which program funding covered the eligible population, given the pro- Trade To conduct a nationwide performance audit of gram’s administrative and service costs, with Adjustment the program, and more intensive studies of the particular emphasis on the reasons why JTPA Assistance Wisconsin and Texas programs. was serving only about 2.3% of the estimated eligible population. Targeted Jobs Tax To study the viability of the TJTC program in next column Credit terms of its role as a hiring incentive.

Recent Reports

Issue Area Report Issue Area Project

Worker DIslocation “Trade Adjustment Assistance Program: Audit Tax Credits “Targeted Jobs Tax Credit Program: State of of Program Outcomes in Nine Selected Alabama” States” next column

Sources OSPPD staff and their working list of projects; BLS’s Research Summaries, Work and Family newsletter, NEWS newsletter, and Working Pa- pers; staff of the Bureau of International Labor Affairs and their publication on research; and the Semi-Annual Report of the Office of the In- spector General (1992-1993).

Department of Labor chart concludes.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 85 Resources

National Commission for Employment Policy

The National Commission is an inde- dates are: 1) identifying the employment the use of performance standards for eval- pendent federal agency authorized under needs and goals of the nation and mak- uating the effectiveness of programs, and the Job Training Partnership Act. Its pur- ing assessments of the extent to which ex- 3) studying ways to improve organizational pose is to analyze employment and train- isting training, vocational education, pub- efficiency and effectiveness within the ing policies and make recommendations lic assistance and employment strategies workforce system and addressing labor to the President and Congress for improv- are meeting these needs and goals, 2) force change and economic development ing the workforce system. Its major man- advising the Secretary of Labor regarding issues.

Selected Projects in Progress or Completed: 1990 through Early 1994

Issue Area Overview of Project Issue Area Overview of Project Economic and A study of the implications of NAFTA for U.S. Role of Employ- ing these needs. This project included a con- Labor Force employment and the workplace, with particular ment, continued ference on “Training a Diverse Population” Change interest in dislocation effects and programs de- which addressed changes in the economy and signed to ameliorate those effects. Special at- labor force that were generating new conditions, tention was given to labor markets, technolo- worker needs and potential problems. gy, competitiveness, worker migration and mobility, and trade and investment. An analysis of the status of upward mobility pro- grams in the U.S. service sector, with empha- A study of the employment effects in the U.S. sis on program implementation and successful of the integration of the European Community. program models. Among the industrial sectors Major issues were the effects of 1) the elimina- studied were transportation, public utilities, tion of differences in regulatory and technical wholesale and retail trade, finance, insurance standards across the EC, 2) the elimination of and real estate. nontariff barriers to trade, 3) the opening up of competition for government purchases in each A study of coordination among programs with EC nation to firms across the EC, and 4) the common or similar goals for serving economi- elimination of laws preventing providers of cer- cally disadvantaged clients but which are ad- tain services from operating across national ministered under different rules and regulations. boundaries. Also, U.S. worker adjustment strat- The study reviewed public assistance programs egies for responding to these changes were an- and JTPA’s eight percent education-coordina- alyzed. tion setaside. Methodologies for improving co- ordination were examined. Three seminars in- An analysis of the implications of employee ben- volving representatives of local governments efits for employers, the workplace, and the and the agencies implementing the programs economy. Issues of interest were strategies were the major sources of insights. for recruiting entry-level workers, techniques to train prospective employees, literacy training, A special study of the JTPA Eight Percent Edu- and ways to provide child care and other em- cation Setaside. This was conducted to see ployee benefits to workers. The study also ex- how the setaside was being used to encourage amined benefit practices in other industrialized JTPA-education coordination and to identify key nations, such as pensions, health insurance, issues and options for improving it. and days off from work, as well as social secu- rity, medicare and workers compensation-type An analysis of the Massachusetts E&T survey, benefits. A major focus was on the cost of pro- to capture basic information about job training viding benefits vis-a-vis employment growth. services to various target populations, and its costs. This analysis produced a methodology Role of Employ- A long-term study of state efforts to finance for assessing program objectives, organization- ment and Training employer-based retraining efforts for dislocat- al structure, modes of service delivery, feder- Program in Improv- ed workers. al-state partnerships, and state E&T funding. ing the Functioning This provided a tool for state-level program co- of the Labor Force A study of the educational, training and employ- ordination. ment needs of the U.S. population, and the ex- tent to which government programs were meet- next column

National Commission chart continues.

86 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

National Commission for Employment Policy, continued

Issue Area Overview of Project Issue Area Overview of Project

Role of Employ- A study of Private Industry Councils in JTPA. Role of Employ- how much and what type of education and train- ment, continued This study focused on practical recommenda- ment, continued ing to provide, looking at the experience of tions for improving the effectiveness of PICs. welfare clients in JTPA.

A study of the development and potential de- Performance A series of projects regarding the use of UI velopment of Human Resource Investment Management and wage records for performance management Councils (HRICs) in the states. (Forthcoming) Program Evaluation and program evaluation. (Please see Issue #9 of Evaluation Forum for an article about these An examination of local priorities regarding JT- studies). PA’s Summer Youth Employment and Training Program. A descriptive evaluation of JTPA’s targeting strategies, services and outcomes. Outcomes Several studies of the Employment Service: its of interest were employment, earnings and job assistance to dislocated workers served by the retention. The study was based on NCEP’s Economic Dislocation and Worker Adjustment multi-state, multi-year data base of merged UI Assistance Act, with an emphasis on alterna- wage records and JTPA information. NCEP tives to lay-offs, and the role of ES in helping considered this project and the Department of dislocated workers become re-employed; and Labor’s experimental study of JTPA to be com- its overall effectiveness. plementary contributors of findings about JTPA. As a supplement to this project and a bridge Two studies on job training issues regarding with the DOL study, a project was conducted in Hispanic and Native American workers. Utah to test the feasibility of using Employment Service records to develop a comparison group A study of the impact of government regulatory for evaluating JTPA using a quasi-experimen- policies on employment patterns in the U.S. tal design. (This latter approach was one of This study focused on coordination across reg- the products of The JTPA Evaluation Design ulatory agencies of the federal government in Project sponsored by NCEP in the latter half of developing rules and regulations for E&T pro- the 1980s.) grams. A computer modeling strategy was de- veloped and its utilization studied. There was As a follow-up to the above study, a case study interest also in requiring “regulatory impact anal- in Texas to explore the use of UI wage records yses” as part of the “regulatory review process.” for examining participation and program out- comes in JTPA, JOBS and vocational educa- An analysis of information from the March 1991 tion, particularly regarding white, Hispanic and Current Population Survey and special supple- black workers. Based on this study, NCEP and ment administered in 1983, concerning the re- DOL are developing a project on “successful ceipt of training (initial training and upgrade outcomes,” looking at what services and activ- training) and the source of funding used to sup- ities were provided to those who attained suc- port training. Survey data are being studied cessful postprogram outcomes, what kinds of within the framework of the training receiver’s jobs they obtained, the number of job changes characteristics: gender, race/ethnic status, ed- they sustained, and the labor market conditions ucation, industry and occupation. they faced in obtaining jobs.

A series of research projects on work and wel- A project reviewing and summarizing what fare. In particular, these studies will examine NCEP has learned about the use of UI data for the “two years and out” approach to welfare re- performance management and evaluation. This form; the role of employers in providing train- project is expected to provide insights for per- ing and employment to welfare clients; the use formance management and program evaluation of incentives to affect the training and employ- for post-secondary vocational education and ment behavior of welfare recipients, such as JOBs, as well as JTPA. the accessibility of child care; and the issue of next column

National Commission chart continues.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 87 Resources

National Commission for Employment Policy, continued Selected Reports Completed or Forthcoming: 1990 through Early 1994

Issue Area Title Issue Area Title

Economic and “A Changing Nation — Its Changing Labor Workforce “Private Industry Councils: Examining Their Labor Force Force” Programs, Mission Under the Job Training Partnership Act” Change continued “The Employment Effects of European Econom- “Private Industry Council Training Manuals” ic Integration” (Forthcoming)

“The Employment Effects of the North Ameri- “Measuring Employment Effects in the Regula- can Free Trade Agreement” tory Process”

“Employee Benefits for American Workers” “Patterns of Hispanic Participation in Texas AFDC and JTPA Programs” (Forthcoming) “The Changing Role of Labor Force Statistics for Economic Policies of the 1990’s” (Forthcom- Workforce “Public and Private Investment in Training in ing) Preparation the U.S.” (Forthcoming)

The Employer “Employer Strategies for a Changing Labor “Unemployment Insurance Wage Records’ Po- Community Force: A Primer on Innovative Programs and tential for Measuring Performance in JTPA, Policies” JOBS, and Post-Secondary Vocational Educa- tion” (Forthcoming) Workforce Planning “Workforce Futures: Strategic Planning in the States” Work and Welfare “Training Welfare Recipients: How Much and What Type Raises Them Above Poverty?” Workforce “The JTPA Education-Coordination Setaside” (Forthcoming) Coordination “Assessing State-Level Job Training Coordina- Program Evaluation “Evaluating State-Financed, Workplace-Based tion: A Survey Design and Methodology Based Retraining Programs” Upon the Massachusetts Experience” (Please note: Three reports were produced from a multi-year project: the first focused on the Workforce Employment Service policy rationale underlying this approach, an in- Programs “Improving the Effectiveness of the Employment tervention model, and the feasibiliity of a par- Service: Defining the Issues” ticular method for evaluating such an approach; the second reported on the feasibility of apply- “Improving the Effectiveness of the Employment ing the evaluation method; and the third report- Service in Serving Dislocated Workers Under ed on three case studies of state retraining pro- EDWAA: Evidence from the 1980’s” grams, and their linkage with the objectives of private sector firms.) JTPA “Upward Mobility Programs in the Service Sec- “A Feasibility Study of the Use of Unemploy- tor for Disadvantaged and Dislocated Workers” ment Insurance Wage-Record Data as an Eval- uation Tool for JTPA.” “Training Hispanics: Implications for the JTPA System” “Using Unemployment Insurance Wage-Record Data for JTPA Performance Management” “Helping the Homeless be Choosers: The Role of JTPA in Improving Jobs Prospects” “Evaluating JTPA Programs for Economically Disadvantaged Adults: A Case Study of Utah “Developing Effective JTPA Performance Stan- and General Findings” dards Incentive Policies” next column

Sources Sources of information for NCEP projects and reports: 1992 and 1993 Annual Reports of the National Commission for Employment Policy, and additional information from NCEP staff.

National Commission chart concludes.

88 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

The Office of the Assistant Secretary research parameters for judging their effi- in 1992 and 1993. Evaluations of some of for Planning and Evaluation (ASPE) spon- ciency and effectiveness, and overseeing the demonstration projects funded earlier sors a large body of research on HHS pro- their evaluation. The projects below are are reviewed in the Features Section of grams. In the work/welfare area, the Of- primarily studies of JOBS, and recent dem- this issue. HHS’s Office of Inspector Gen- fice of Policy and Evaluation in the onstration projects which will ultimately be eral (OIG) also conducts research in- Administration for Children and Families evaluated. Since selected HHS research house through its Office of Evaluation and collaborates with ASPE in approving work/ was summarized in Issue #9 of Evalua- Inspections. The OIG studies listed here welfare demonstration projects authorized tion Forum, we list here only those dem- focus on the JOBS program. under 1115 waiver authority, developing onstration projects that were authorized

ASPE and the Office of Planning and Evaluation, Administration for Children and Families

Completed Research, 1993-1994

Issue Area Report Title/Overview/Primary Contractor Issue Area Report Title/Overview/Primary Contractor

Work/Welfare Implementing JOBS: The Initial Design Homelessness Outcasts on Main Street: Report of the and Structure of Local Programs Federal Task Force on Homelessness A descriptive study to examine local implemen- and Severe Mental Illness tation of the JOBS program. A policy analysis on homelessness and mental Rockefeller Institute of Government illness based on the work of the Task Force on Homelessness and Severe Mental Illness, with Saturation Work Initiative Model in San recommendations for government action. Diego: A Five-Year Follow- Up Study Manpower Demonstration Research An experimental evaluation of San Diego’s Sat- Corporation uration Work Initiative Model (SWIM) which re- quired heads of single and two-parent house- Youth Comprehensive Service Integration holds receiving AFDC to engage in activities that Programs for At-Risk Youth promote employment or risk temporary loss of A study to assess how integrated, comprehen- part of their grant: a five-year demonstration sive services can be provided to at-risk youth: project. the design and implementation of such servic- Manpower Demonstration Research es; barriers to developing them; and ways to Corporation facilitate their creation. next column The Urban Institute

Selected Demonstration Projects Approved in 1993

Issue Area Title/Overview/State Issue Area Title/Overview/State

Compliance Personal Accountability and Multiple Interven- rates, and provide work incentives. The six Sanctions Responsibility (PAR) tions, continued projects: 1) makes recipients age 14-20 man- Excludes from AFDC grant any able-bodied re- datory for JOBS; 2) provides homeless AFDC cipient who is not caring for a child under age families with intensive community services; 14 and who has refused an offer of full-time 3) eliminates 100-hour rule for two-parent re- employment at or above the minimum wage or cipients and other work disincentives; 4) offers who terminates employment without good non-custodial fathers JOBS services to increase cause. Sanction for first violation is loss of grant child support; 5) encourages recipients to ac- for three months; for second, six months. cept temporary work in the context of budget- Georgia ing earnings to reduce their impact on benefits; and 6) reduces work disincentives in eligibility Multiple Interven- Multi-Pronged Welfare Reform Project rules. (The sixth project is titled Project Fresh tions for Youth Consists of six distinct but interactive projects Start.) and Adults intended to augment service delivery, enhance Illinois family stability, increase JOBS participation next column

Health and Human Services chart continues.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 89 Resources

Health and Human Services, continued

Issue Area Title/Overview/State Issue Area Title/Overview/State

Multiple Interven- Family Independence Project (FIP) Limitation, special needs grants for children who would be tions, continued Liberalizes AFDC rules to remove work disin- continued made homeless by grant termination. After first centives; requires parents whose youngest month, WNW grant is defined as payment for child is under age one to participate in JOBS; work or training client is expected to engage in. requires pregnant and parenting minors to at- Education, work or training is required of all par- tend school or obtain training; requires single ents, with some exceptions such as parents of and two-parent recipients who have not ob- a child under one who have not had the child tained subsidized employment to participate in while receiving benefits. Working parents can subsidized community service jobs; provides receive transitional benefits within the four-year transitional child care and Medicaid for work- timeframe. ing parents. Wisconsin Vermont Welfare Reform: New Opportunities and New Work Incentives Iowa Family Investment Program (FIP) Responsibilities and Disincentives Requires all adult recipients of AFDC to enter Requires all able-bodied AFDC applicants and into a Family Investment agreement outlining recipients to work or participate in a work ex- activities and time frames during which client perience program unless exempted; reduces is expected to become self-sufficient. Clients monthly benefit if minor has not completed high demonstrating effort and progress can renew school or has refused to attend school or find agreement, but those not complying will lose employment, and if assistance unit does not grant over six month period and cannot reap- comply with program rules and regulations. Cli- ply for six months. Project also reduces work ents have a one-time-only opportunity to pur- disincentives related to AFDC rules/regulations. sue education, but benefits are terminated at Iowa the end of six months at point individual com- pletes an associate or AB degree and are elim- Employment and Welfare Reform Project inated if client is pursuing a second degree or Training Involves job creation via work with employers is working on a degree program too long. to obtain jobs for longer-term recipients; liber- Wyoming alizes some AFDC rules to reduce work disin- centives; provides transitional case manage- Title Not Known ment, and child care and medical benefits for Restricts receipt of benefits to 2 years within year following closure of grant due to employ- any 60-month period; removes work disincen- ment; offers employers providing jobs to recip- tives; provides transitional benefits for working ients a reimbursement of 20% of their wages parents; requires participation in JOBS for those during 1st year and 10% second year; permits with youngest child six months and older. AFDC children enrolled full-time in school to Florida receive benefits until age 21 if making satis- factory progress. Consolidation of Title Not Known Virginia Benefits Consolidates AFDC, Food Stamp and child care benefits into single package; removes some of Limitation to Work Not Welfare Demonstration (WNW) work disincentives from AFDC rules; requires Welfare Receipt Restricts clients to 24 months of regular plus childhood immunization; places a two-year limit one year of transitional benefits within a four on benefits for clients not complying with regu- year period; involves cash-out of Food Stamps, lations; provides incentives to complete high as part of grant; provides support services to school. families who have had benefits terminated, child Colorado care for working parents, Food Stamps, and next column

Office of the Inspector General

Completed Research, 1993-1994

Issue Area Report Title/Overview Issue Area Report Title/Overview

Welfare/AFDCFunctional Impairments of AFDC Clients Welfare/AFDC Functional Impairments of AFDC Clients: A study to determine whether and how states continued Case Studies implementing JOBS are systematically identi- Case studies of eight programs dealing suc- fying and dealing with the functional impair- cessfully with JOBS clients’ functional impair- ments, and limited education and work experi- ments. ence, of many welfare clients. next column

Health and Human Services chart continues.

90 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

Health and Human Services, continued

Issue Area Title/Overview Issue Area Title/Overview

Welfare/JOBSJOBS Skills Assessment Welfare/JOBS, develop data systems to support this use, and A study of the client assessment process used continued their perspectives on the development of fed- by states to determine client skills: its sophisti- eral performance measures. cation, scope and effectiveness in the JOBS program. Using Community Resources for Educating and Training JOBS Participants JOBS Program and Proprietary Schools A survey of twenty-seven states and twelve lo- A study of how eleven states incorporated train- cal communities to describe promising practic- ing in private-for-profit proprietary schools into es for utilizing existing community resources to their JOBS programs, and their satisfaction with serve JOBS clients. that strategy. Participants Rate the JOBS Program Performance Indicators A survey of 232 JOBS participants in five cities in the JOBS Program to solicit their attitudes toward the program, their A descriptive study to determine states’ atti- program experiences, and their recommenda- tudes toward the use of performance indica- tions for improving JOBS. tors to judge JOBS’ outcomes, their ability to next column

Other Research

HHS also funds extensive research through the Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin. The Institute produces a newslet- ter-journal, Focus, which is an excellent resource for learning about pov- erty-related studies funded by HHS and other sources.

Conclusion For those interested in the context for the dem- onstration projects, HHS’s goal for demonstra- tion activities is the contribution of knowledge to the improvement of AFDC families’ econom- ic self- sufficiency, a major objective of Title IV of the Social Security Act and JOBS. HHS de- velops priorities for the issues to be addressed and the nature of the demonstration, and re- quires an evaluation of the demonstration that focuses both on program implementation — both the organizational aspects and the service delivery features of implementation — and on program impact utilizing (preferably) an exper- imental design methodology. The demonstra- tion projects must be budget-neutral. States willing to accept these requirements and inter- ested in testing innovations regarding the is- sues being addressed must formally apply to HHS in response to an RFP. The cost of the demonstration and evaluation component is shared between the federal government and the states whose demonstration models are ap- proved.

Sources The source of information for the entries in this chart is material published by ASPE and the Office of Policy and Evaluation, and informa- tion from staff in these offices. It should be un- derstood that this information covers only cer- tain characteristics of the demonstration projects.

Health and Human Services chart concludes.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 91 Resources

U.S. Department of Education

The major sources of research within also a significant source of information. nia is the most relevant for the employ- the U.S. Department of Education are: The Office of Evaluation in Policy and ment and training community. This office 1) the Office of Evaluation under the As- Planning has been working with the De- also funds the Field-Initiated Studies pro- sistant Secretary for Policy and Planning, partment of Labor on the planning and im- gram to advance educational theory and 2) the Office of Educational research and plementation grants for the School-to- practice, and sponsors studies of educa- Improvement (OERI) and its Office of Re- Work Initiative and its national evaluation. tional reform efforts. Many of the projects search, and 3) the Office of Vocational and OERI’s Office of Research funds 21 Na- of the U.S. Department of Education are Adult Education and its National Center tional Educational Research and Devel- policy analyses, descriptive studies and for Research on Vocational Education in opment Centers, of which the National longitudinal surveys. The projects listed Berkeley, California. The National Center Center on the Educational Quality of the below represent a selected sample of De- for Educational Statistics, part of OERI, is Workforce at the University of Pennsylva- partment of Education research.

Office of Educational Research and Improvement (OERI)

Selected Field-Initiated Studies, Educational Research Grant Program, 1993

Issue Area Purpose of the Project/Recipient Issue Area Purpose of the Project/Recipient

Drop-Outs To generate a high-risk index for predicting Tracking, native tracking on student educational aspirations, which students are likely to drop out of school, continued academic satisfaction, and self- confidence. and to map the pathway to and from school fail- Johns Hopkins University ure for those students. University of Minnesota Parent and Community To develop recommendations for state/local pol- Involvement in icymakers to strengthen, increase, and support Migrant Youth To investigate factors influencing migrant Schools parent and community involvement in the edu- youth’s participation and success in post-sec- cational system. ondary education. Montana State University BOCES, Colorado Teacher Education To refine a teacher education program within a Minority Youth To conduct an experimental study of the effec- school-university partnership, with an interest in tiveness of a scholarship incentive program for the recruitment of qualified minority teachers. minority youth, and to analyze the effects of the Northern Arizona University program’s selection criteria. University of Toledo Best Teaching To conduct intensive studies of eight urban el- Practices ementary school teachers who have demon- Ungraded Schools To investigate the development, implementa- strated unusual success in improving literacy tion and effects of ungraded primary schools. skills and student attitudes, particularly regard- University of Louisville ing minority students. University of Colorado Academic Tracking To examine a variety of tracking alternatives in high schools, and to evaluate the effects of alter- next column

Selected Field-Initiated Studies, 1990 through 1992

Issue Area Purpose of the Project/Recipient Issue Area Purpose of the Project/Recipient

Adult Basic To produce a profile of existing practices, teach- Immigrants To examine the process of educational adap- Education er qualities, and learner preferences regarding tation among language minority youth and the the teaching of mathematics using recent stan- impact of these second-generation immigrant dards developed by the National Council of students on secondary schools. Teachers of Mathematics. San Diego State University World Education, Inc. next column

Department of Education chart continues

92 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

U.S. Department of Education, continued

Issue Area Purpose of the Project/Recipient Issue Area Purpose of the Project/Recipient

State Education To study state education agency initiatives in School to Work to make recommendations for improving their Policies four states to support and increase family in- education. volvement in education. Columbia University Council of Chief State School Officers To identify the factors contributing to the grad- Utilization of To explore the conceptual and instrumental At-Risk Youth uation or dropping-out of Native American stu- Research uses of social research knowledge among ed- dents in high school, and to develop a predic- ucation policymakers in the U.S. and Australia. tive model for identifying potential drop-outs. University of Missouri Montana State University

School to Work To examine how and why disadvantaged stu- dents in high schools are placed in inappropri- ate or unsuitable courses or programs, in order next column

National Assessment of Vocational Education

The National Assessment of Vocational Edu- study, a Design Conference was held in the two reports on the status of secondary and post- cation (NAVE) was mandated by Congress in spring of 1991. The panel constructed for the secondary education in the U.S. was published the 1990 Carl Perkins Act. It consists of a se- conference continued to provide review and in October, 1993. The second and final report ries of studies of vocational education conduct- comment on the research. The research was will be submitted to the Congress in the sum- ed over a three-year period. To frame the is- funded by the Department of Education but con- mer of 1994. sues and methodology guiding the multi-faceted ducted as an independent study. The first of

National Center on the Educational Quality of the Workforce

Funded by OERI, this national center (EQW) bring with them to the workplace, 3) the ways Center is located at the University of Pennsyl- is four years old. Its current research agenda in which formal education affects employees’ vania. EQW engages in an active research dis- focuses on these issues: 1) the capacities of work lives, and 4) the abilities of schools and semination effort, including special Washing- firms to manage a skilled workforce, 2) the atti- other parties to be effective suppliers in an ex- ton Public Policy Seminars and the publication tudes about work and skills that employees panding market for work-related education. The of EQW Issues, EQW Working Papers, and Da- tabooks.

Selected Current Research

Issue Area Projects Issue Area Projects

Education and A five-year effort to develop, test and make Outcomes, A pilot study to test the efficacy of conducting a Training Provision available integrated data sets for benchmark- continued larger-scale evaluation of the relationship be- ing the scale, scope and content of work-relat- tween school inputs and labor market out- ed education and training for adult learners. comes.

High-Tech Training A multi-year study to determine the specific Youth Employment An exploratory study to integrate what is known knowledge and skills required of workers in or- about youth employment, experiential learning, der to perform effectively in highly technical oc- and the effect that jobs targeted to youth have cupations. on the formation of attitudes toward work and work behavior. Employer A quantitative study using field studies and data Investments in analysis to determine why some firms choose Labor Market An analysis of Current Population Survey data Training to invest in education and training while others Change to gauge changes in the span of job tenure over do not. time for different demographic groups.

Employment A project to investigate the types of employ- Outcomes for ment former vocational education students ob- Service Receivers tain and the wages they receive. next column

Department of Education chart continues

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 93 Resources

U.S. Department of Education, continued Selected EQW Publications

Issue Area Title/Author Issue Area Title/Author

Skills Is the ‘Skills Gap’ Really about Attitudes? Employer Training, Enhancing Productivity and Competitiveness Requirements Peter Cappelli continued John Bishop

Advancing Workforce Skills: Opportunities and What Employers Want: Employer Perspectives Requirements for State Action on Youth, the Youth Labor Market, and David Stevens Prospects for a National System of Youth Apprenticeship The New Crafts: The Rise of the Technical Robert Zemsky and Penney Oedell Labor Force and Its Implication for the Organization of Work Data on Worker Crosswalk of National Data Sets Focusing Stephen Barley Training on Worker Training This crosswalk includes data from these nation- Workforce Competitive Strategies of States: A Life-Cycle al surveys: CPS, SIPP, BLS’s National Longi- Competitiveness Perspective tudinal Survey, NLS, and the High School and Patricia Flynn Beyond survey.

Building a World-Class Front-Line Workforce: Performance College and the Workplace: How Should The Need for Occupational Skill Standards in Measurement We Assess Student Performance? State Workforce Preparation Programs Peter Cappelli Robert Sheets Youth Youth Apprenticeships and School-to-Work Public Investments in Training: Perspectives on Transition: Current Knowledge and Legislative Macro-Level Structural Change and Micro-Level Strategy Delivery Systems Paul Osterman and Maria Iannozzi Wayne Cascio British Lessons for School-to-Work Transition Employer Training A Program of Research on the Role of Employ- Policy in the U.S. and Hiring er Training in Ameliorating Skill Shortages and Peter Cappelli next column

National Center for Research in Vocational Education

NCRVE was established under the Carl its results, and to support training. It is Graduate School of Education. The Cen- D. Perkins Vocational Education Act to actually a consortium of educational insti- ter publishes a newsletter titled Change conduct applied research and disseminate tutions led by the University of California’s Agent.

Reports on Completed Projects, 1991-1993

Issue Area Report Title/Project Purpose Issue Area Report Title/Project Purpose

Economic Context Changes in the Nature and Structure of Economic Context, Indicators of Education and the Economy of Education Work: Implications for Skill Requirements continued To analyze long-term economic and demo- and Skill Formation graphic trends as a context for developing vo- To analyze how changes in the economy and cational education strategies. workplace are affecting skill requirements and methods for imparting skills. Postsecondary Vocational Education and the Sub-Baccalaureate Labor Market: New A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating Evidence on Economic Returns Community College Customized To analyze data from the National Longitudinal Training Programs Study of the Class of 1972 to examine the re- To develop a definition and model of customized turns for different kinds of sub-baccalaureate training as a guide for evaluating such training. education. next column

Department of Education chart continues.

94 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

U.S. Department of Education, continued Reports on Completed Projects, 1991-1993

Issue Area Report Title/Project Purpose Issue Area Report Title/Project Purpose

Economic Context, School/Work: Economic Change Institutional Training for Basic Skills or Educating Workers? continued and Educational Reform Context, continued Changing Conceptions of Workplace Education To develop a strategy for educational reform Programs based on current reform initiatives and research To provide a conceptual model for viewing work- on changes in the economy. place education programs.

Selection Bias and the Earnings Effects Vocational Education: Germany and the U.S. of Postsecondary Vocational Education To analyze differences in vocational education To examine selection bias problems in nation- between Germany and the U.S. through a liter- al data sets in estimating earnings effects. ature review, case studies, and other informa- tion. Skills and Security in Evolving Employment Systems: Observations Curricula and Black Americans and Vocational Education: from Case Studies Students Participation in the 1980s To conduct case studies of five firms attempt- To analyze the status and outcomes of black ing to implement employment systems charac- Americans in secondary and postsecondary terized by a high degree of employment secu- vocational education during the 1980s, using rity, employee involvement in problem-solving, the latest national data sets. and continuous employee training. Building the Middle Institutional Access to and Use of Vocational To synthesize NCRVE research on a series of Context of Education in Teen Parent Programs educational reforms for youth. Education To examine a range of vocational opportuni- ties available to young mothers enrolled in teen Establishing Integrated Tech Prep Programs in parent programs. Urban Schools: Plans Developed at the NCRVE 1993 National Institute Assessing Coordination of Vocational To describe the model plans developed by ten Education with Other Federal Programs teams of educators for establishing integrated To outline issues involved in coordination of Tech Prep programs in urban schools. vocational education and JTPA, adult basic skills, the Employment Service, apprentice- A Time to Every Purpose: Integrating ships, and disability legislation, as part of the Occupational and Academic Education in NAVE study. Community Colleges and Technical Institutes To develop approaches for integrating commu- Assessing the Nature and Operation nity and technical college vocational education of Institutional Excellence inVocational based on a survey of postsecondary colleges Education across the U.S. To study the nature and operation of institutions offering exemplary vocational education pro- Accountability Beyond Vocational Education Standards and grams. Systems Measures: Strengthening Local Accountability Systems for Program Improvement Education and Training for Work: The Policy To examine vocational education accountabili- Instruments and the Institutions ty strategies. To study five major categories of education and training policies. Empowering Accountability in Vocational- Technical Education: The Analysis and Education and Training for Work in the Use of Wage Records Fifty States: A Compendium of State Policies To explore the use of UI wage records in in- To describe a database providing information creasing accountability. about state policies and practices regarding five education and training programs: JTPA, wel- A Guide to Using Postsecondary fare-to-work programs, state-funded job train- Transcript Data and an Overview of ing, secondary vocational training and postsec- Course Taking in Less-Than-Four-Year ondary vocational training. Postsecondary Institutions To facilitate the analysis of data in the High Local Systems of Vocational Education School and Beyond data set, creating a three- and Job Training: Diversity, Interdependence, level taxonomy of courses divided into three and Effectiveness broad areas and then into seven vocational and To describe and examine strategies used by six academic levels. education and training institutions in eight local communities. next column

Department of Education chart continues.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 95 Resources

U.S. Department of Education, continued

Issue Area Report Title/Project Issue Area Report Title/Project

Accountability, Improving National Data for Vocational Accountability, Pandora’s Box: Accountability and Performance continued Education: Strengthening A Multiform System continued Standards in Vocational Education To explore national data needs in vocational Several studies on the use of performance stan- education and develop recommendations for dards in assessing the outcomes of vocational establishing an integrated national data system. education.

A Look at Planning and Evaluation Performance-Based Policy Options for Post- Linkages Across States Secondary Vocational Education and Employ- To study the extent to which substantive plan- ment and Training Programs ning and comprehensive evaluation are linked (no description) in the states. next column

Report: Agenda for 1993

Issue Area Purpose of Study/Contractor Issue Area Purpose of Study/Contractor

Economic Context To develop a methodology for examining skill Curricula, To continue an evaluation of state and local of Education needs in a sample of firms that encompasses continued planning and implementation of Tech Prep pro- a variety of entry-level jobs. grams. RAND University of Illinois Teachers College School-to-Work To develop a process for continuous improve- To examine the sub-baccalaureate labor mar- ment in programs seeking to connect school to ket using data from the National Longitudinal work, focusing on vocational education, youth Survey of the Class of 1972, the National Lon- apprenticeship and school-based enterprises. gitudinal Survey of Youth, and the Survey of University of Minnesota Income and Program Participation, and to study University of California-Berkeley the wages and earnings that result from vari- ous patterns of schooling and employment. To learn what role two-year colleges should play RAND in work-based learning in assisting youth and University of California-Berkeley young adults in the transition from school to work. To track the development of the industry- and University of Illinois occupation-based skills certification movement in the U.S., with an emphasis on how the move- Entrepreneurship To examine and evaluate the efforts of post- ment can and should affect the vocational edu- secondary vocational/technical institutions in cation community. establishing minority-owned enterprises in vo- Teachers College cational training, focusing on special popula- tions. Institutional To study the effectiveness of a group of inte- Teachers College Context of grated vocational-academic magnet schools Education and schools-within-schools using an experi- Student Profiles To provide a comparative profile and analysis mental design, with an emphasis on differen- of the literacy skills, demographics, and socio- tial impacts for different ethnic groups and “best economic characteristics of individuals in vo- practices.” cational training, focusing on special popula- Teachers College tions.

To conduct case studies on the integration of To conduct a three-year longitudinal study of vocational and academic education in postsec- the experiences of 150 vocational-technical ed- ondary institutions. ucation students, in terms of their attitudes, University of California-Berkeley learning experiences, and outcomes. University of Illinois University of Wisconsin-Madison

Curricula To develop model urban Tech Prep programs. University of California-Berkeley next column

Sources Department of Education research staff, ab- stracts of projects, and publication lists.

Department of Education chart concludes.

96 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

U.S. Department of Commerce

In terms of research the division of the munity is the Economic Development Ad- The projects listed below are under the Commerce Department of greatest impor- ministration and its Office of Research. sponsorship of the latter. tance to the employment and training com-

Selected Recent Research

Issue Area Purpose of Research/Contractor Issue Area Purpose of Research/Contractor

Urban Economic To assess the characteristics and effectiveness Monitoring, To develop a performance monitoring system Development of market-based urban economic development continued for several major economic development pro- strategies, including 1) the definition of essen- grams. tial features of entrepreneurial policies — such The Urban Institute as their risk-taking, decision-making, and non- bureaucratic features, and 2) the classification Industrial Change To examine change in the location of manufac- of local policy tools in terms of these criteria turing jobs between 1963 and 1987, in terms of and whether they rely on federal or nonfederal movement from central cities and the suburbs resources. to the exurbs located 15 to 20 miles from cen- University of Colorado tral cities. Georgia Institute of Technology To conduct county-based analyses of industri- al classifications in 21 sectors, to design and To study the relationship of technology to em- test ways to measure industrial restructuring, ployment and the effects of technological change and to prepare a growth model of employment on the workplace and U.S. productivity. between 1977 and 1984 to look for relationships National Academy of Sciences between industrial restructuring, small business development, education, and the adequacy of Defense To study the impact of reductions in military support personnel. Conversion spending on employment, business closings, University of North Carolina and the economic health of defense-dependent communities Rural Economic To conduct a two-year study of rural develop- Northeast-Midwest Institute Development ment policy. Texas A&M University Demographic To study the distribution of income in the U.S. Trends between 1967 and 1987 To prepare a guidebook containing 64 profiles National Bureau of Economic Research of successful economic development initiatives in small towns and rural areas in the U.S. To examine the extent and location of ghetto Midwest Research Institute poverty and the question of whether ghetto res- idents are worse off than poor people living else- To analyze strategies used for successful rural where and in what ways. economic development in 12 counties. National Research Council Research Triangle Institute To study the demographic, social, economic, Economic Develop- To develop industry-driven strategies for eco- and political trends shaping urban conditions. ment Planning and nomic planning based on a demand-side view This study was associated with the Committee Monitoring of the allocation of resources. on National Urban Policy. Cleveland State University National Academy of Sciences

To analyze aspects of state development in- Workforce Issues To examine the effects of new technology on centives, including their rationale and the types employment sectors traditionally dominated by used, and prepare a state-by-state guide de- women: its quality, its dislocation effects, and scribing incentive systems and their cost-effec- what training and relocation assistance are tiveness. needed to address the dislocation impact. The Urban Institute National Academy of Sciences

To report on the results of a national sympo- To examine how the earnings of blacks are af- sium on differing perspectives on economic fected by their metropolitan areas’ employment development: national, state and local. growth and mix of industries. Policy Studies Organization W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. next column

Department of Commerce chart continues.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 97 Resources

U.S. Department of Commerce, continued

Issue Area Research/Contractor Issue Area Research/Contractor

Workforce Issues, To study the influence of economic diversity on Workforce Issues, To report on a forum on “Hard-to-Employ Youth: continued unemployment and employment stability in re- continued An Untapped Economic Development Re- gional economies of the U.S., U.K., and Cana- source.” da. National Council for Urban Economic University of North Carolina Development

To explore the reasons for differential self-em- International Issues To study “best practices” in European Commu- ployment and income differences by race and nity initiatives to support technology-based de- ethnicity. velopment. National Bureau of Economic Research Innovation Associates

To evaluate the Public Works Demonstration To report on a forum on major trends in current Projects for Women’s Business Enterprise. economic development policies, initiatives and C. Taylor and Associates programs being undertaken by other countries. next column National Council for Urban Economic Development

Selected Recent Publications

Issue Area Report Title Issue Area Report Title

Demographic and “The Determinants of State Per-Capita Income Planning, “State Development Incentives” Economic Trends Growth: 1950-1987” continued “Monitoring the Quality and Outcomes of Eco- “Exurban Industrialization” nomic Development Programs”

“Industrial Transition Paths and the Restructur- Workforce Issues “Computer Chips and Paper Clips: Technology ing of Metropolitan and Rural Economies” and Women’s Employment”

“Inner-City Poverty in the U.S.” “Economic Development and Black Economic Success” “Technology and Employment” “The Influence of Economic Diversity on Un- “Urban Change and Poverty” employment and Employment Stability”

“Defense Adjustment and Conversion Lessons “Self-Employment in the Labor Market: An Anal- from Seven Sites” ysis of the Differences Among Racial and Eth- nic Groups” Economic Develop- “The Five Paths to Local Economic Develop- ment Planning and ment” “Turning Disadvantaged Youth into an Econom- Evaluation ic Development Resource: Education and Train- “Focus on the Future: Options in Developing a ing Linkages” New National Rural Policy” “Labor Force Participation and Unemployment “Profiles in Rural Economic Development” in American Counties”

“Rural Economic Development: Learning from International Issues “Exchanging Ideas Across the Globe: Success- Success” ful Economic Development in the U.S. and next column Abroad”

Sources EDA staff, and Recent Economic Studies of the Economic Development Administration, De- cember 1993.

Department of Commerce chart concludes.

98 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

U.S. Department of Agriculture

The major source of evaluation re- Employment and Training Program. An- initiated research related to the Adminis- search related to employment and train- other source of research information is the tration’s School-to-Work Initiative. Our fo- ing in the Agriculture Department is the Economic Research Service. In addition, cus here is on two major studies of the Food and Nutrition Service and its Office the Agriculture Extension Division’s Office Food Stamp Employment and Training Pro- of Analysis and Evaluation, which has of Workforce Preparedness has recently gram that have recently been completed. sponsored evaluations of the Food Stamp

Selected Recent Research of Relevance to the E & T Community

Issue Area Report Title/Purpose of Research/Contractor Issue Area Report Title/Purpose of Research/Contractor

Employment and Evaluation of the Food Stamp Employment Employment and Study of the Food Stamp Employment Training and Training Program: Final Report Training, continued and Training Program: Operations, An experimental evaluation involving 13,000 Funding and Coordination eligible participants in 53 sites in 23 states. Con- Volume I: Study Findings and Conclusions sisting of a study of program implementation, Volume II: Descriptive Profiles of 15 Local Food net impact and cost-effectiveness, the study Stamp Employment and Training Programs sought information on the employment-related A process evaluation of the Program, focusing outcomes of the program. on operations, funding and coordination with re- Abt Associates lated programs. Westat, Inc. SRI International next column Social Policy Research Associates

Department of Agriculture chart concludes.

Charts continue.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 99 Resources

U.S. Congress

In response to requests for information also carries out research relevant to the general list of OTA publications, across all from the U.S. Congress, the U.S. Gener- interests of the Congress. And the Con- the issue areas this agency deals with , al Accounting Office (GAO) conducts re- gressional Budget Office conducts its own you may call 202-224-9241 to request any search within two of its divisions, the Hu- research. In addition, the Congressional of the following: thirty-page summary man Resources Division and the Program Research Service is a major source of re- booklets or shorter report briefs on OTA Evaluation and Methodology Division. The search information. We focus here on the research projects, or a monthly list of new Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) GAO and OTA. For those interested in a assessment activities.

General Accounting Office

Selected Research Projects Completed, 1990 through early 1994

Issue Area Overview of the Project Issue Area Overview of the Project

Education A case study to describe the types and exten- Vocational habilitated participants achieved gains in em- siveness of privately-supported programs pro- Education, ployment and earnings relative to the years im- viding post-secondary financial aid, including continued mediately preceding rehabilitation to employ- the timing of assistance, the nature of the group ment. receiving assistance with a higher education, whether mentoring and other supportive ser- Exploratory case studies to determine the role vices are provided, and whether information on of specialized skills training in obtaining em- school enrollment, retention and graduation is ployment in selected occupations that do not collected systematically. require a four-year degree, the barriers and op- portunities for such training, and the role feder- A descriptive survey to determine the level or al programs play in overcoming such barriers. the awareness of high school students and their parents of the availability of financial assistance A study to review the mathematics achievement options for seeking a higher education. levels of students taking the test titled National Assessment of Educational Progress (NEAP), A descriptive survey to identify the demograph- designed by the National Assessment Govern- ics of Hispanic students who fail to complete ing Board, including an examination of the high school, in terms of potential barriers to their strengths and limitations of the test approach completion of high school, including recent im- and results. migration, English language proficiency, work and family responsibilities, and family income A study to identify cost reduction and revenue- level. producing alternatives regarding the Perkins student loan program. A study of the Chapter 1 remedial education program to suggest ways to target more funds An evaluation of the Vocational Rehabilitation to those most in need: those in countries with Program: client characteristics, services re- the largest number of poverty-related low ceived, and employment outcomes. achievers and those least able to pay for sup- plementary services. A study of the status of vocational programs in secondary schools in school year 1990-1991 A study to identify the kinds of jobs provided and changes in 1991-1992. through the College Work-Study Program. Employment and An analysis of American apprenticeship train- An analysis of system-wide education reform Training ing to identify its effectiveness in responding to in terms of federal leadership. current training needs,

A demographic study of school-age children. A study to determine strategies seeking to in- tegrate human services for at-risk families, and An analysis of the Canadian experience with to identify the barriers to providing comprehen- educational standards and assessments. sive services to the poor.

Vocational A descriptive survey and quasi-experimental An evaluation of JTPA regarding the provision Education evaluation to identify the characteristics of pro- of support services. gram participants and the training provided to them, and to determine whether previously re- next column

U.S. Congress chart continues

100 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

U.S. Congress, continued

Issue Area Overview of the Project Issue Area Overview of the Project

Employment An evaluation of JTPA regarding contracting Work and Welfare, A study of the implementation of transitional Training, continued with service providers. continued child care, transportation and medical services to those in work/welfare programs, to establish An evaluation of JTPA regarding its future po- barriers to an evaluation of this aspect of JOBS. tential as part of a national job training strate- gy. A comprehensive evaluation of the JOBS pro- gram as it related to the Unemployed Parent A comparison of dislocated workers’ assistance component: its implementation, the kind of pro- programs. gram designs used, the nature of the service, and the outcome measures to be used in judg- An evaluation of the Worker Adjustment and Re- ing performance. training Notification Act to learn the extent to which it is meeting its intent. An evaluation of the extent to which JOBS is serving the least job- ready, given participation A study of the Trade Adjustment Assistance rate requirements. program. An analysis of poverty trends between 1980 and An assessment of the role of certification sys- 1988, particularly regarding family composition tems and industry involvement in the develop- and income. ment of skills standards. A study of the food needs of and food dona- A study of the UI system’s ability to meet its tions to the homeless. objectives. An analysis of the feasibility of establishing a Studies to suggest a comprehensive school-to- child support assurance system for parents work policy. whose absent spouses are not paying child support. An assessment of states’ effort to develop new School-to-Work strategies. An assessment of JOBS in terms of the reli- ability of participation rate data. Work and Welfare A descriptive survey to identify how states planned to integrate two-parent families into A study of JOBS’ provision of services to teen their AFDC program, including the requirements parents. for receiving benefits, the types of JOBS ser- Economic vices offered, and the agencies providing the Development A study to identify ways to evaluate the imple- services. mentation and efforts of public/private partner- ships in seeking to stimulate economic devel- An assessment of the effectiveness of Tribal opment in communities. work/welfare strategies. next column An analysis of innovative small business con- cepts funded by the federal government.

Selected Reports Completed, 1990 through early 1994

Issue Area Title Issue Area Title

Education“National Assessment Technical Quality.” Education, “Educational Achievement Standards: NAGB’s continued Approach Yields Misleading Interpretations.” “Compensatory Education: Difficulties in Mea- suring Comparability of Resources Within Vocational “Vocational Rehabilitation: Evidence for Fed- School Districts.” Education eral Program’s Effectiveness is Mixed.”

“School Age Demographics: Recent Trends “Vocational Rehabilitation Program: Client Pose New Educational Challenges.” Characteristics, Services Received and Em- ployment Outcomes.” “System-Wide Education Reform: Federal Lead- ership Could Facilitate District-Level Efforts.” “Vocational Education: Status in School Year 1990-91 and Early Signs of Change at Second- “Educational Testing: The Canadian Experience ary Levels.” With Standards, Examinations and Assess- ments.” next column

U.S. Congress chart continues.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 101 Resources

U.S. Congress, continued

Issue Area Title Issue Area Title

Vocational Educa- “Vocational Education: Status in Two-Year Col- Work and Welfare “Unemployed Parents: Initial Effort to Expand tion, continued leges in 1990-91.” State Assistance.”

Employment and “Apprenticeship Training: Administration, Use “Unemployed Parents: An Evaluation of the Ef- Training and Equal Opportunity.” fects of Welfare Benefits on Family Stability.”

“Job Training Partnership Act: Action Needed “Interstate Child Support: Mothers Report Re- to Improve Participant Support Services.” ceiving Less Support From Out-of-State Fa- thers.” “Job Training Partnership Act: Abuse of On-the- Job Training and Other Contracting is an On- “Child Support Assurance: Effect of Applying going Problem.” State Guidelines to Determine Fathers’ Pay- ments.” “Job Training Partnership Act: Potential for Pro- gram Improvements but National Job Training “Social Security: Need for Better Coordination Strategy Needed.” of Food Stamp Services.”

“Dislocated Workers: Comparison of Assistance “Integrating Human Services Linking At-Risk Programs.” Families with Services More Successful than System Reform Efforts.” “Dislocated Workers: Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act Not Meeting Its “Welfare to Work: Effectiveness of Tribal JOBS Goals.” Programs Unknown.”

“Dislocated Workers: Improvements Needed in “Welfare to Work: Implementation and Evalua- Trade Adjustment Assistance Certification Pro- tion of Transitional Benefits Need HHS Action.” cess.” “Welfare to Work: States Serve Least Job- “Anti-recessionary Job Creation: Lessons from Ready While Meeting JOBS Participation the Emergency Job Act of 1983.” Rates.”

“Minimum Wages and Overtime Pay.” “Welfare to Work: JOBS Participation Rate Data Unreliable for Assessing States’ Performance.” “Skills Standards: Experience in Certification System Shows Industry Involvement to Be Key.” “Welfare to Work: States Move Unevenly to Serve Teen Parents in JOBS.” “Unemployment Insurance: Program’s Ability to Meet Objectives Jeopardized.” “Self-Sufficiency: Opportunities and Disincen- tives on the Road to Economic Independence.” “Transition from School to Work: States Are De- veloping New Strategies to Prepare Students “Poverty Trends, 1980-1988: Changes in Fam- for Jobs.” ily Composition and Income Sources Among the Poor.” next column

Source GAO’s Abstracts of Reports and Testimony for 1992 and 1993 and information from staff in the Program Evaluation and Methodology Division.

U.S. Congress chart continues.

102 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

U.S. Congress, continued Office of Technology Assessment

Some Current Projects

Issue Area Purpose of the Project Issue Area Purpose of the Project

Literacy To study existing literacy programs and make Computerized ic delivery of federal services. This study is recommendations about how technology can Service Delivery, related to the Administration’s National Perfor- assist educators in the testing area. continued mance Review and National Information Infra- structure initiatives. Vocational To study vocational education assessment in- Education struments now in use, tests in development, and Performance To study performance standards issues regard- steps involved in moving the U.S. toward well- Standards ing the Food Stamp Employment and Training developed and certified tests supporting the Program operated by the Food and Nutrition mastery of technical knowledge in broad tech- Services of the Department of Agriculture. Abt nical fields, in particular transferrable skills. Associates’ study of the program showed that the program was not meeting its goal or reduc- To study the content and use of educational ing food stamp outlays by increasing the em- testing strategies in American schools. ployment and earnings of food stamp recipients. OTA will review the Food and Nutrition Servic- Information To review the Social Security Administration’s es’ alternative model for implementing a per- Systems Information Technology Automation Program formance management system and make rec- regarding: 1)technical justification and docu- ommendations about the most effective models. mentation of SSA’s information systems ap- proach, 2) the relationship of the approach to Jobs in a Service To study how productivity in service jobs can SSA’s long-term service delivery strategy, Economy be improved through technology, through 3) the use of intelligent work stations and local 1) case studies in selected service industries, area networks within the program and service 2) analysis of linkage between technology and delivery strategy, and 4) the implications of the productivity, 3) analysis of labor markets by automation program for state involvement in sector and occupation, and 4) consideration of SSA activities. policy options dealing with issues such as train- ing and work organization, job security, labor To study privacy and security issues regarding law, business modernization, and job creation. advances in networking that facilitate remote access to network information resources such Defense To study the positives and negatives in defense as digital libraries and shared databases. This Conversion downsizing in terms of unemployment and new study is relevant to the Administration’s tech- job creation. nology plan for wider use of the Internet and the development of the National Research and Economic To analyze ways in which the American econo- Education Network. Competitiveness my can become more competitive vis-a-vis Europe and the Pacific Rim. Computerized To evaluate the ability of technology to provide Service Delivery services more effectively through the electron- next column

Recent Reports

Issue Area Title Issue Area Title

Literacy “Adult Literacy and New Technologies: Tools Service Delivery “Making Government Work: Electronic Delivery for a Lifetime.” of Federal Services.”

Educational “Testing and Assessment in Vocational Educa- Defense “Defense Conversion: Redirecting R and D.” Assessment tion.” Conversion “After the Cold War: Living with Lower Defense “Testing in American Schools: Asking the Right Spending.” Questions.” Economic Competitiveness “U.S.-Mexico Trade: Pulling Together or Pull- Information “Defending Secrets, Sharing Data: New Locks ing Apart?” Systems and Keys for Electronic Information.” next column

Sources OTA staff, Report Briefs, monthly Assessments.

U.S. Congress chart concludes.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 103 Resources

An Exemplar: Federal- and State-Funded Research Conducted by Private Firms

Although the federal agencies are within those areas. As illustrations of this firms. The information below was forth- among the major funders of social policy growing phenomenon, we provide an over- coming from a request to a large number research, this research is conducted in- view of some of the research relevant to of private firms, asking for information on creasingly by large private-sector research the employment and training community their research activities. We welcome in- organizations which specialize in certain that is funded federally, often in collabo- formation on other firms, which we can substantive areas of research and in par- ration with large foundations, but carried publicize in subsequent issues of Evalua- ticular methodologies for studying issues out by third-party independent research tion Forum.

The Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation, New York, New York

Selected Completed Studies

Issue Area Title/Purpose/Funders Issue Area Title/Purpose/Funders

Adult E&T National Supported Work Demonstration Youth E&T, Structured Training and Employment To assess the effectiveness of a transitional em- continued Transitional Services ployment program in assisting hard-to-employ To test the feasibility and effectiveness of a populations. ‘supported work’ concept in placing youths into U.S. DOL unsubsidized jobs who are borderline to mod- U.S. HHS erately retarded. The Ford Foundation U.S. DOL New Jersey and Wisconsin The Ford Foundation

National Job Training Partnership Act JOBSTART Experiment Report: “JOBSTART: Final Report on a Program To evaluate the effectiveness of employment for School Dropouts” and training programs for adults and youth pro- To develop and test a comprehensive educa- vided under JTPA Title II A. tion and training program model for increasing U.S. DOL the employability of disadvantaged out-of- school youth. Youth E&T Youth Incentive Pilot Projects U.S. DOL Reports: “Impacts from the YIEPP” National Commission for Employment Policy “Post-Program Impacts of the YIEPP” The Ford Foundation To measure the effect of a job guarantee pro- Rockefeller Foundation gram for disadvantaged 16-19 year-olds, on Other foundations condition that they remain in or return to school Several corporations and meet attendance and performance require- ments. Youth Education Career Beginnings U.S. DOL Report: “Career Beginnings Impact Evaluation” Rockefeller Foundation To evaluate a program providing high school juniors with academic remediation, college Project Redirection preparation and tutoring, counseling and rec- Report: “The Challenge of Serving Teenage reational activities, in order to encourage con- Mothers: Lessons from Project New Direction” tinuation of education and the improvement of To analyze the efficacy and feasibility of an ed- career objectives. ucational and mentoring program for pregnant The Commonwealth Fund and parenting teens. John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation U.S. DOL The Ford Foundation School to Work School-to-Work Transition Project Other Foundations Reports: “Home-Grown Lessons: Innovative Programs Linking Work and High School” The Comprehensive Opportunities Program “The School to Work Transition and To provide disadvantaged young people with a Apprenticeship” range of competency-based and individually- To examine a range of school-to-work initiatives tailored work experience, skill training, and ed- to study key factors affecting school, student, ucational and counseling services to improve and employer participation in programs de- their employability. signed to solidify the connection between edu- U.S. DOL cation and employment. next column The Commonwealth Fund Other foundations

Exemplar continues.

104 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

Exemplar, continued

Issue Area Title/Purpose/Funders Issue Area Title/Purpose/Funders

Work/Welfare Demonstration of State Work/Welfare Work/Welfare, and temporary exemption from public assis- Initiatives continued tance rules considered work disincentives. Report: “Work Initiatives for Welfare Recipients: The Corporation for Enterprise Development Lessons from a Multi-State Experiment” To evaluate new state programs for assisting Welfare Education Linkage Program welfare recipients to achieve self-sufficiency To examine the planning, designing and early through job search, work experience and other implementation of large-scale state programs program strategies. seeking to link the welfare and education sys- The Ford Foundation tem to serve poor families. Other foundations The Rockefeller Foundation Participating states Ohio’s LEAP Program Saturation Work Initiative Model (SWIM) Report: LEAP: Implementing a Welfare Report: “The Saturation Work Initiative Model Initiative to Improve School Attendance in San Diego: A Five- Year Follow-Up Study” among Teenage Parents To test the feasibility and effectiveness of re- To study the effectiveness of Ohio’s innovative quiring a high proportion of the welfare case- welfare-education project, using a combination load to participate in welfare employment pro- of financial incentives and penalties to induce gram activities as long as they received AFDC. teenage parents on welfare to attend and com- U.S. HHS plete school. California The Ford Foundation Other foundations Self-Employment Investment Demonstration Ohio (SEID) Report: “Self-Employment for Welfare Clients” Multi-State Technical Assistance To test the feasibility of operating a program to Collaborative encourage AFDC recipients to develop their own To provide technical assistance for implement- businesses, and to provide business and life ing the JOBS program. management skills training, loan assistance, The Ford Foundation next column Other foundations

Selected Ongoing Projects

Issue Area Title/Purpose Issue Area Title/Purpose

Youth Education High School Career Academies Work/Welfare, ment-related, and support services to assist 16- To measure the High School Career Academies’ continued 22 year-old mothers to become more self-suffi- effect on high school retention and perfor- cient and to encourage the healthy development mance, graduation rates, post-secondary of their children. school enrollment and completion, and labor U.S. DOL market success. The Ford Foundation U.S. DOL Other foundations The Ford Foundation National Commission for Employment Policy Other foundations California’s Greater Avenues for Low Income New Hope Project Independence (GAIN) Families To test the effectiveness of an anti-poverty strat- Report: GAIN: Program Strategies, Participa- egy targeted to poor and working poor fami- tion Patterns, and First-Year Impacts in Six lies, and combining work-based wage subsi- Counties; Two Year Impacts in Six Counties dies, guaranteed community service jobs, child To evaluate a comprehensive welfare employ- care assistance, and access to health insur- ment initiative providing work-related activities ance. and services to welfare clients. The Ford Foundation California New Hope Project, Inc. Florida’s Project Independence Work/Welfare New Chance To evaluate a welfare employment initiative pro- Report: New Chance: Implementing a viding work-related activities and services to Comprehensive Program for Disadvantaged welfare clients. Young Mothers and Their Children Ohio To develop and test a comprehensive mix of The Ford Foundation educational, personal development, employ- next column

Exemplar continues.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 105 Resources

Exemplar, continued

Issue Area Title/Purpose Issue Area Title/Purpose

Work/Welfare, Parents’ Fair Share Work/Welfare, Florida Family Transition Program continued Report: Caring and Paying: What Fathers and continued To test the effectiveness of a welfare reform Mothers Say about Child Support; Matching Op- strategy targeted to the entire welfare case- portunities to Obligations: Lessons for Child load, and combining enhanced financial incen- Support tives to work, enhanced JOBS services, and a To develop and study the effectiveness of em- time limit on AFDC to be followed by work ac- ployment, training and other services for non- tivities. Both a mandatory and a voluntary ver- custodial parents of children receiving AFDC, sion will be tested. in order to increase child support. Florida The Pew Charitable Trusts The Ford Foundation The Ford Foundation U.S. HHS Vermont Family Independence Program U.S. DOL To study the effectiveness of a welfare reform strategy that combines increased work incen- Self-Sufficiency Project tives, up-front voluntary JOBS participation, To implement and evaluate the effectiveness time limits on AFDC education and training, of providing an earnings supplement to single mandatory community service employment af- parents who agree to leave welfare and main- ter the time limit, and a money management tain full-time employment. effort. Canada: Human Resources Development Vermont

Minnesota Family Investment Program National JOBS Evaluation To test the effectiveness of an anti-poverty strat- Report: Assessing JOBS Participants: Issues egy targeted to welfare recipients and combin- and Trade-offs ing increased work incentives, JOBS services To evaluate the national JOBS program in a targeted to the more disadvantaged, and con- variety of sites across the country. solidation of public assistance benefits pro- U.S. HHS grams. U.S. Department of Education The Ford Foundation Minnesota next column

Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Princeton, New Jersey

Selected Completed Studies

Issue Area Title/Purpose Issue Area Title/Purpose

Unemployment Unemployment Insurance Exhaustee Study Dislocation Trade Adjustment Assistance Program Insurance Report: A Study of Unemployment Insurance Report: International Trade and Worker Dislo- Exhaustees: Findings from a National Survey cation: Evaluation of the Trade Adjustment As- To obtain information about factors underlying sistance Program the UI exhaustion rate, including the inability to To examine the impact of programmatic chang- find employment or disincentives in UI system es during the 1980s on program operations and leading to minimal job search efforts. the labor market outcomes of recipients. U.S. DOL U.S. DOL next column

Exemplar continues.

106 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

Exemplar, continued Selected Projects in Progress

Issue Area Title/Purpose/Funder Issue Area Title/Purpose/Funder

Dislocation Job Search Assistance Demonstration Youth at Risk Dropout Demonstration Assistance Program To measure the impact of alternative employ- To assess the effectiveness of comprehensive ment assistance services, including job search dropout prevention efforts to keep at-risk youth assistance and training, on the receipt of UI and in school, including program implementation, on the employment and earnings of participants. impact and cost effectiveness. Emphasis is on claimants permanently sepa- U.S. DOL rated from their employer and likely to experi- ence difficulty in becoming re-employed. Upward Bound U.S. DOL To conduct a five-year longitudinal study of the implementation and impact of the program, as Literacy Effective Workplace Literacy Programs well as its costs vs. benefits. To provide information about programs and U.S. Department of Education participants from all grantees for three years, and to estimate the net impact of ten of these Job Corps Program programs. To provide reliable estimates of the net impact U.S. DOL of the program on the post-program earnings, employment and other outcomes of partici- School-to-Work School-to-Work Transition/Youth pants, as well as to study program implemen- Apprenticeship Demonstration Projects tation and cost vs. benefits. To evaluate the implementation of 22 school- U.S. DOL to-work transition and youth apprenticeship projects intended to prepare youth for employ- Welfare Youth Teenage Parent Demonstration Program ment. Initial Report: Building Self-Sufficiency among U.S. DOL Welfare-Dependent Teenage Parents: Lessons from the Teenage Parent Demonstration Non-College Bound Tech Prep To study programs in Illinois and New Jersey Youth To describe Tech-Prep programs and identify seeking to enhance the employment prospects effective practices, including a longitudinal sur- and reduce the long-term welfare dependency vey of two cohorts of program participants com- of teenage parents. The study was extended to bined with school records on their academic examine longer-term impacts. performance. U.S. HHS U.S. Department of Education next column

Sources Staffs of the Manpower Demonstration Re- search Corporation and Mathematica Policy Research, Inc.

Exemplar concludes.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 107 Resources

Index to Information on Federal Research

Abbreviations D of Ag Department of Agriculture MDRC Manpower Demonstration D of Comm Department of Commerce Research Corporation D of Ed Department of Education MPR Mathematica Policy DOL Department of Labor Research, Inc. GAO General Accounting Office, U.S. NCEP National Commission for Congress Employment Policy HHS Health and Human Services OTA Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Congress

Academic Tracking: D of Ed, 92 and Training:NCEP, 86, 87; HHS, 90; GAO, Trade: DOL, 84 Capacity Building: DOL, 81 100-101, 102; MDRC, 104; Adjustment Assistance: DOL, 85 Change and Training, Food Stamp Program: D of Training: DOL, 83 Economic and Labor Force: NCEP, 86, 88 Ag, 99 Data on Worker: D of Ed, 94 Industrial: D of Comm, 97 Youth: D of Ed, 93 High Tech: D of Ed, 93 Labor Market: D of Ed: 93 Entrepreneurship: D of Ed, 96 Job: DOL, 84 Competitivenes Evaluation Strategies: DOL, 82 Unemployment: DOL, 81, 84 Workforce: D of Ed, 94 Families Insurance: DOL, 82; MPR, 106 Compliance Sanctions: HHS, 89 Low Income: MDRC, 105 Wages: DOL: 84 Defense Conversion: D of Comm, 97; OTA, Gender Issues: DOL, 83 Welfare 103. Hispanics: DOL, 82 AFDC: HHS, 90-91 Demographic Trends: D of Comm, 97, 98 Homelessness: DOL,81, 82; HHS, 89 Consolidation of Benefits: HHS, 90 Dislocation: DOL, 84, 85; MPR, 102-103 and Dislocation: DOL, 83 JOBS: HHS, 91 and Homelessness: DOL, 83 Immigrants: DOL, 80; D of Ed, 92 Limitations to Receipt of: HHS, 90 Economic Competitiveness: OTA, 103. Information Production and Dissemination: Youth: MPR: 106 Economic Development: DOL, 82; GAO, DOL, 81; OTA, 103 Women: DOL, 80 101 International Issues: DOL, 84; D of Comm, Work Planning and Monitoring: D of Comm, 97, 98 97, 98 and Welfare: NCEP, 88; HHS, 89; GAO, Rural: D of Comm: 97 Interventions, Multiple: HHS, 89-90 101, 102; MDRC, 105,106 Urban: D of Comm: 97 Investment, Foreign in U.S.: DOL, 83 History: DOL, 83 Education: DOL, 84; GAO, 100, 101 Job Development: DOL, 81 in a Service Economy: OTA, 103 Accountability Systems: D of Ed, 95-96 JTPA: DOL, 81, 82, 85 Incentives and Disincentives: HHS, 90 Adult Basic: D of Ed, 92 Labor Market Worker Mobility: DOL, 83 Assessment: OTA, 103 Experience: DOL, 82 Workforce Community College: DOL, 81 Information: DOL, 83 Competitiveness: D of Ed, 94 Curricula and Students: D of Ed, 95, 96 Literacy: DOL, 80; OTA, 103; MPR, 106 Coordination: NCEP, 88 Economic Context of: D of Ed, 94-95, 96 Performance Issues: D of Comm, 97, 98 Institutional Context of: D of Ed, 95, 96 Management: NCEP, 87 Planning: NCEP, 88 State Policies: D of Ed, 93 Measurement: D of Ed, 94 Preparation: DOL, 84; NCEP, 88 Student Profiles: D of Ed, 96 Standards: OTA, 103 Programs: NCEP, 88 Teacher: D of Ed, 92 Poverty: DOL, 84 System Performance Management: DOL, Tracking, Academic: D of Ed: 92 Program Evaluation: NCEP, 87, 88 81 and Training: D of Ed: 93; MDRC: 105 School to Work: D of Ed, 93, 96; MDRC, Youth: DOL, 80, 81, 82, 83; HHS: 89; D of Utilization of Research: D of Ed: 93 104; MPR, 106 Ed, 94 Vocational: GAO, 100, 101-102; OTA, 103 Schools At-Risk: D of Ed: 93; MPR, 106 Youth: MDRC: 104 Parent and Community Involvement in: D of Drop-outs: D of Ed, 92 Employer: DOL, 81; NCEP, 88 Ed: 92 Employment: D of Ed, 93 Investments in Training: D of Ed: 93 Ungraded: D of Ed, 92 Employment and Training: MDRC, 100 Training and Hiring: D of Ed: 94 Service Delivery: DOL, 82; OTA, 103 Migrant: D of Ed, 92 Training Provided by: DOL: 83 Skill Minority: D of Ed, 92 Employment Centers: DOL, 81 Multiple Interventions: HHS, 89-90 and Family Background: DOL, 83 Requirements: D of Ed, 94 Non-College Bound: MDRC, 103 Outcomes for Service Receivers: D of Ed, Targeted Jobs Tax Credit: DOL, 85 93 Teaching, best practices: D of Ed, 92

Index concludes.

108 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

New Concern about Poverty: A Renaissance in Poverty Research?

Books, Articles and Working NY: Russell Sage Foundation, 1987. Levitan, S. and G. Mangum. Federal Papers on Poverty Garfinkel, I. and S. McLanahan. Single Human Resource Policy: From Kennedy to Clinton. Washington, Auletta, K. The Underclass. New York, Mothers and Their Children: A New D.C.: Center for Social Policy Studies, NY: Random House, 1982. American Dilemma. Washington, D.C.: Urban Institute Press, 1986. The George Washington University, Bane, M.J. and D. Ellwood. “One Fifth 1994. of the Nation’s Children: Why Are Gilder, G. Wealth and Poverty. New They Poor?” in Science, September York, NY: Basic Books, 1981. Levitan, S. and I. Shapiro. Working But Poor. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins 1989. Glazer, N. The Limits of Social Policy. University Press, 1987. Blalock, H.M. Understanding Social Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Levy, F. Dollars and Dreams: the Inequality. Newbury Park, CA: Sage, Press, 1988. Changing American Income Distribu- 1991. Gottschalk, P. “Reflections on Slowing tion. New York, NY: Russell Sage Blau, P. and O. D. Duncan. The Ameri- Economic Growth and Rising Inequali- Foundation, 1987. can Occupational Structure. New ty,” in Focus, Spring 1990. York, NY: Wiley, 1967. Levy, F., B. Bluestone, L. Thurow et Hannerz, U. Soulside: Inquiries into al. Declining American Incomes and Borjas, G. and M. Tienda (editors) His- Ghetto Culture and Community. New Living Standards. Washington, DC: panics in the U.S. Economy. Orlando, York, NY: Columbia University Press, Economic Policy Institute, 1988. FL: Academic Press, 1985. 1969. Massey, D. “Latino Poverty Research: Center for Budget Priorities: Laboring Harrington, M. The New American An Agenda for the 1990s,” in Items, for Less: Working But Poor in Rural Poverty. New York, NY: Penguin March 1993. America. Washington, DC 1989. Books, 1984. Massey, D. and M. Eggers. “The Ecol- Chafel, J. (editor) Child Poverty and Haveman, R. Poverty Policy and Pov- ogy of Inequality: Minorities and the Public Policy. Washington, DC: Urban erty Research. Madison, WI: Universi- Concentration of Poverty,” in American Institute Press, 1993. ty of Wisconsin Press, 1987. Journal of Sociology, March 1990. Danziger, S. “Education, Earnings and Haveman, R. and B. Wolfe. “Chil- Mayer, S.E. and C. Jencks. “Poverty Poverty.” Working paper. Ann Arbor, dren’s Prospects and Children’s Poli- and the Distribution of Material Hard- MI: Population Studies Center, Univer- cy,” in Journal of Economic Perspec- ship,” in Journal of Human Resources sity of Michigan, 1989. tives, Fall 1993. 24, Winter 1989. Danziger, S. and J. Stern. “The Causes Jargowsky, P. “Ghetto Poverty Among McGroder, S. and S. Koutroumanes. and Consequences of Child Poverty in Blacks in the 1980s,” in Journal of Pol- “Comprehensive Family Service Pro- the U.S.” Working paper. (1990). icy Analysis and Management, Spring grams: Evaluation Issues,” in Focus, 1994. Danziger, S. and D. Weinberg (editors) Spring 1992. Fighting Poverty: What Works and Jencks, C. and S. Mayer. Poverty and Moore, J. and R. Pinderhughes (edi- What Doesn’t. Cambridge, MA: Har- Hardship in America. (Forthcoming). tors) In the Barrios: Latinos and the vard University Press, 1986. Kasarda, J. Third World Cities: Prob- Underclass Debate. New York, NY: Duncan, G. Years of Poverty Years of lems, Policies and Prospects. Thousand Russell Sage Foundation,1993. Plenty: The Changing Economic For- Oaks, CA: Sage, 1994. Moss, P. and C. Tilly. Why Black Men tunes of American Workers and Fami- Kasarda, J. “Urban Industrial Transi- Are Doing Worse in the Labor Market: lies. Ann Arbor, MI: Institute for Social tion and the Underclass,” in Annals of A Review of Supply-Side and Demand- Research, University of Michigan, the American Academy of Political and Side Explanations. New York, NY: So- 1984. Social Science, January 1989. cial Science Research Council, 1991. Entwhistle, D. and K. Alexander. Lanahan, S., I. Garfinkel and D. Wat- Moynihan, D.P. “Our Poorest Citizens “Summer Setback: Race, Poverty, son. “Family Structure, Poverty, and — Children,” in Focus, Spring 1988. School Composition, and Achieve- the Underclass,” in Urban Change and Murray, C.A. Losing Ground: Ameri- ment,” in American Sociological Re- Poverty edited by M. McGeary and L. view, February 1992. can Social Policy. New York, NY: Ba- Lynn. Washington, DC: National sic Books, 1984. Farley, R. The Color Line and the Academy Press, 1991. Quality of Life in America. New York,

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 109 Resources

National Center for Children in Pover- Romo, H. (editor) Latinos and Blacks U.S. General Accounting Office: Moth- ty: Five Million Children: 1993 Up- in the Cities: Policies for the 1990s. ers-Only Families: Low Earnings Will date. New York, NY: Columbia Uni- Austin, TX: University of Texas, 1990. Keep Many Children in Poverty. (1991) versity, 1993. Rossi, P. and S. Rice. “Some Criticial U.S. GAO: Poverty Trends: 1989-88. National Commission on Children: Be- Comments on Current Evaluations of (1992) yond Rhetoric: A New American Agen- Programs for the Amelioration of Per- U.S. Government Printing Office: da for Children and Families. Wash- sistent Poverty,” in Focus, Volume 14, Families First: Report of the National ington, D.C.: U.S. Government Spring 1992. Commission on America’s Urban Fam- Printing Office, 1991. Ruggles, P. Drawing the Line: Alterna- ilies. Washington, DC, 1993. Nothdurft, W. Out From Under: Policy tive Poverty Measures and Their Impli- Waquant, L. and W.J. Wilson. “The Lessons from a Quarter Century of cations for Public Policy. Washington, Cost of Racial and Class Exclusion in Wars on Poverty. Washington, DC: Na- D.C.: Urban Institute Press, 1990. the Inner City,” in Annals of the Ameri- tional Governors’ Association, 1990. Sandefur, G. “Poverty Among Minority can Academy of Political and Social Novak, M. “The New War on Poverty,” Groups Since the Kerner Report of Science, January 1989. in Focus, Spring 1988. 1968.” Working paper. Institute for Re- West, C. Race Matters. Boston, MA: search on Poverty. Madison, WI, 1988. O’Neill, H. Creating Opportunity: Re- Beacon Press, 1994. ducing Poverty Through Economic De- Sandefur, G. and M. Tienda. (editors) Wilson, W.J. The Truly Disadvan- velopment. Washington, DC: Council Divided Opportunities: Minorities, taged: The Inner City, the Underclass, of State Planning Agencies, 1985. Poverty and Social Policy. New York, and Public Policy. Chicago, IL: Uni- NY: Plenum Press, 1988. Orloff, A. S. and T. R. Skocpol. The versity of Chicago Press, 1987. Politics of Social Policy in the United Schorr, L. Within Our Reach: Breaking States. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Uni- the Cycle of Disadvantage. New York, Books, Articles and Working versity Press, 1988. NY: Doubleday, 1989. Papers on Welfare Peterson, P. (editor) The New Urban Skocpol, T. Protecting Soldiers and American Assembly: The Future of So- Reality. Washington, DC: The Brook- Mothers: The Political Origins of So- cial Welfare in America. New York, ings Institution, 1985. cial Policy in the U.S. Cambridge, MA: NY: Columbia University, 1989. Harvard Unversity Press, 1992. Plotnick, R. “Changes in Poverty, In- American Public Welfare Association: come Inequality and the Standard of Solow, R. “Poverty and Economic Investing in Poor Families and Their Living During the Reagan Years.” Growth,” in Focus, Spring 1990. Children: A Matter of Commitment. Working paper. Institute for Research Washington, DC, 1986. Squires, G. et al. Chicago: Race, Class on Poverty. Madison, WI, 1992. and the Response to Urban Decline. Bane, M.J. and D. Ellwood. The Dy- Plotnick, R. “Determinants of Out-of- Philadelphia, PA: Temple University namics of Dependence: The Routes to Wedlock Childbearing: Evidence from Press, 1987. Self-Sufficiency. Cambridge, MA: Ur- the National Longitudinal Survey of ban Systems Research, 1983. Tienda, M. “Race, Ethnicity and the Youth,” in Journal of Marriage and the Portrait of Inequality: Approaching the Baum, E. B. “When the Witch Doctors Family, 1994. 1990s,” in Sociological Spectrum 9, Agree: The Family Support Act and Prosser, W. “The Underclass: Assess- 1989. Social Science Research,” in Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 10, ing What We Have Learned,” in Focus, Tomas Rivera Center: The Changing Summer 1991. 1991. Profile of Mexican America: A Source- Reich, R. The Next American Frontier. book for Policy Making. Claremont, Block, F., R. Cloward, F. Piven et al. New York, NY: Times Books, 1983. CA., 1985. The Mean Season: The Attack on the Welfare State. New York, NY: Panthe- Reischauer, R. “Welfare Reform: Will U.S. Congress: Sources of the Increas- on Books, 1987. Consensus Be Enough? “ in Brookings es in Poverty, Work Effort, and Income Review, Summer 1987. Distribution Data. Subcommittee on Burke, V. “Time-Limited Welfare Pro- posals.” Working paper. Washington, Rockefeller Foundation: Overview of Human Resources, Ways and Means Committee, U.S. House of Representa- D.C.: Congressional Research Service, The Rockefeller Foundation Program tives, 1993. 1993. on Persistent Poverty and the Under- class. New York, NY., 1988. U.S. Department of Labor: Report on Corbett, T. “Child Poverty and Welfare the Policy Academy on Families and Reform: Progress or Paralysis?” in Fo- Rogers, H. Poor Women, Poor Fami- cus, Spring 1993. lies: The Economic Plight of America’s Children At Risk. Washington, DC, 1992. Female-Headed Households. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, Inc., 1990.

110 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Resources

Cottingham, P. and D. Ellwood (edi- Gale, W. et al. “Effects of Public and Shapiro, I. and R. Greenstein. “Making tors) Welfare Policy for the 1990s. Private Transfers on Income Variability Work Pay: The Unfinished Agenda.” Cambridge, MA: Harvard University and the Povery Rate.” Working paper. Working paper. Washington, D.C. Cen- Press, 1989. Institute for Research on Poverty. Mad- ter on Budget and Policy Priorities, Dadkhah, K. and E. Stromsdorfer. “The ison, WI, 1993. 1993. Decision of Welfare Clients to Volun- Gittell, M. and J. Moore. Women on Thurow, L. Generating Inequality: teer for Work and Training.” Working Welfare: Education and Work. New Mechanisms of Distribution in the U.S. paper. Cambridge, MA: Abt Associ- York, NY: The Ford Foundation, 1985. Economy. New York, NY: Basic ates, 1981. Books, 1975. Harris, F. and R. Wilkins (editors) Qui- Danziger, S., R. Haveman, and R. Plot- et Riots: Race and Poverty in the U.S. U.S. Congress: Congressional Budget nick. “How Income Transfers Affect New York, NY: Pantheon, 1988. Office. Work-Related Programs for Work, Savings, and the Income Distri- Hollenbeck, K. “From Welfare to Welfare Recipients. Washington, DC, bution: A Critical Review,” in Journal 1987. Work,” in Evaluation Practice, June of Economic Literature, September 1993. U.S. General Accounting Office: Wel- 1981. fare: Expert Panels’ Insights on Major Lynn, L. and M. McGeary (editors) In- Ellwood, D.T. “Targeting ‘Would-Be’ Reform Proposals. Washington, DC, ner-City Poverty in the U.S. Washing- Long-Term Recipients of AFDC.” ton, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1988. Working paper. Princeton, NJ: Mathe- 1990. Welfare Simplification and Coordina- matica Policy Research, Inc., January Moffitt, R. “The Effect of Work and tion Advisory Committee: Time for a 1986. Change: Remaking the Nation’s Wel- Training Programs on Entry and Exit Ellwood, D. T. “The Origins of ‘De- fare System. Alexandria, VA, 1993. from the Welfare Caseload.” Working pendency’: Choices, Confidence or paper. Institute for Research on Pover- Culture?” in Focus, Spring/Summer Books, Articles and Working ty. Madison, WI, 1993. 1989. Papers on Homelessness Moynihan, D.P. (editor) On Under- Ellwood, D.T. and L.H. Summers. “Is Burt, M. Over the Edge: The Growth of standing Poverty: Perspectives from Welfare Really the Problem?” in Public Homelessness in the 1980s. Washing- the Social Sciences. New York, NY: ton, DC: The Urban Institute Press and Interest 83, Spring 1986. Basic Books, 1969. Russell Sage Foundation, 1991. Ellwood, D.T. and M.J. Bane. “The Im- National Coalition on Women, Work First, R., D. Roth and B. Arewa. pact of AFDC on Family Structure and and Welfare Reform: Changing Wel- Living Arrangments” in Research in “Homelessness: Understanding the Di- fare: An Investment in Women and Labor Economics edited by R.G. mensions of the Problem for Minori- Children in Poverty. Washington, DC: ties,” in Social Work, March/April Ehrenberg. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 1987. 1985. 1988. National Governors’ Association: NGA Levitan, S. and S. Schillmoeller. The Fishman, M.E. and D.H. Weinberg. Welfare Reform Policy. Washington, “The Role of Evaluation in State Wel- Paradox of Homelessness in America. DC, 1987. fare Reform Waiver Demonstrations,” Washington, D.C.: Center for Social in Evaluating Welfare and Training Novak, M. et al. A Community of Self- Policy Studies, The George Washing- Programs edited by C.F. Manski and Reliance:The New Consensus on Fami- ton University, 1991. I.Garfinkel. Cambridge, MA: Harvard ly and Welfare. Washington, D.C.: Mead, L. Beyond Entitlement: The So- American Enterprise Institute for Pub- University Press, 1992. cial Obligation of Citizenship. New lic Policy Research, 1987. Ford Foundation: The Common Good: York, NY: The Free Press, 1986. Rein, M. Dilemmas of Welfare Policy: Social Welfare and the American Fu- Nathan, R. Turning Promises Into Per- Why Work Strategies Haven’t Worked. ture. New York, NY, 1989. formance: Management Challenge of New York, NY: Praeger, 1982. Freeman, R. and H. Holzer (editors) Implementing Workfare. New York, The Black Youth Employment Crisis. Ricketts, E. “The Origin of Black Fe- NY: Columbia University Press, 1993. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago male-Headed Families,” in Focus, National Commission for Employment Spring/Summer, 1989. Press, 1986. Policy: Helping the Homeless Be Friedlander, D. and J. Gueron. Are Rodgers, H. (editor) Beyond Welfare: Choosers: The Role of JTPA in Improv- High-Cost Services More Effective New Approaches to the Problem of ing Job Prospects. Washington, D.C., Than Low-Cost Services? Evidence Poverty. Armonk, NY: M.E. 1990. from Experimental Evaluations of Wel- Sandefur, G. “American Indian Reser- Piliavin, I. et al. “The Duration of fare-to-Work Programs. New York, vations: The First Underclass Areas?” Homeless Careers: An Exploratory NY: MDRC, 1990. in Focus, Spring/Summer, 1989. Study,” in Social Service Review, De- cember 1993.

Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 111 Resources

Rossi, P. Down and Out in America: Furniss, N. and N. Mitchell. “Social OECD: The Welfare State in Crisis. The Origins of Homelessness. Chicago, Welfare Provisions in Western Europe: (1981). IL: University of Chicago Press, 1989. Current Status and Future Possibili- Palmer, J. et al. (editors) The Vulnera- ties,” in Public Policy and Social Insti- Rossi, P. and J. Wright. “The Urban ble. Washington, DC: The Urban Insti- Homeless: A Portrait of Urban Disloca- tutions edited by H. Rodgers. Green- tute Press, 1988. wich, CT: JAI Press, 1984. tion,” in The Ghetto Underclass edited Pechman, J. “Tax Treatment of Fami- by W.J.Wilson. Newbury Park, CA: Kamerman, S. and A. Kahn. “Mother- lies in Modern Industrial Countries: Sage, 1993. Only Families in Western Europe.” The Role of the Negative Income Tax,” Working paper for the German Mar- in Focus, Spring 1990. International Poverty Issues shall Fund. New York, NY: Columbia Social Security Administration, U.S. Abraham, K. and S. Houseman. Earn- University, 1987. ings Inequality in Germany. Working Health and Human Services: Social Se- Lindbeck, A. “Consequences of the curity Programs Throughout the paper. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Advanced Welfare State,” in World World, 1987. Washington, DC, 1988. Institute for Employment Research, Economy, 11, 1988. 1994. Tietjen, A. “The Social Networks and Mayer, S.E. “A Comparison of Pover- Social Support of Married and Single Bell, E. “Social Policy and Economic ty and Living Conditions in Five Coun- Reality,” in The OECD Observor, Au- Mothers in Sweden,” in Journal of tries.” Working paper prepared for the Marriage and the Family 47, 1985. gust/September 1993. Small Grants Seminar sponsored by the Commission of the European Commu- Institute for Research on Poverty and Wong, Y., I. Garfinkel and S. McLana- han. “Single-Mother Families in Eight nities: Final Report on the First Pro- the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Countries: Economic Status and Social gramme of Pilot Schemes and Studies Policy and Evaluation, U.S. Depart- to Combat Poverty. Brussels, Belgium, ment of Health and Human Services, Policy.” Working paper. Institute for Research on Poverty. Madison, WI, 1981. 1992. 1993. Dahrendorf, R. “The Underclass and Organization for Economic Coopera- the Future of Great Britain.” Lecture tion and Development (OECD): Lone delivered at Windsor Castle, England, Parent Families: The Economic Chal- April 1987. lenge. Paris, France, 1990. Erickson, R. et al. Welfare States and OECD: The Future of Social Protec- Welfare Research. Armonk, NY: M.E. tion. (1988) Sharpe, 1987.

112 Evaluation Forum n Issue 10 n Summer 1994 Material contained in this publica- Evaluation Forum is a national jour- Editor and Reviewer tion is in the public domain and may nal for program professionals in re- Ann Bonar Blalock be reproduced, fully or partiallly, lated human service fields: basic Admiralty Inlet Consulting without permission of the Federal education, vocational education, Hansville, Washington Government. Source credit is re- employment and training, welfare, Guest Reviewers quired only to reproduce any copy- labor market and labor force Ernst W. Stromsdorfer righted material contained herein. change, and economic develop- Department of Economics ment. The purpose of the journal is Washington State University This material will be made available to stimulate interest in policy analy- Pullman, Washington to sensory impaired individuals sis, policy research and program Kay Thode upon request. evaluation as useful tools for Welfare Consultant Voice phone: 202-219-5782 policymaking, planning and the im- Seattle, Washington TDD* phone: 1-800-328-2577 provement of social programs. It is understood that the ideas and opin- Technical Services *Telecommunications Device for the ions expressed in the content of the Kathleen Shankman Deaf. journal are those of the respective Center for Governmental Studies writers and do not necessarily rep- Northern Illinois University resent those of the funder or those DeKalb, Illinois of the contributing public interest organizations. Sponsor and Funder Office of Planning and Research Employment and Training Administration U.S. Department of Labor Contributors to Journal Distribution National Governors’ Association Washington, D.C. National Association of Counties Washington, D.C. National Alliance of Business Washington, D.C. History of the Journal The New Evaluation Forum Please Note Evaluation Forum was devel- The new Evaluation Forum, of Each issue addresses a general oped as part of a five-year national which this is the second issue, is theme in its Features section, but demonstration project, The JTPA being sponsored and funded by the also covers a range of subjects un- Evaluation Design Project, funded Office of Planning and Research, der the section Evaluation Issues between 1986 and 1991 by the Na- Employment and Training Adminis- and Activities. Therefore, readers tional Commission for Employment tration, U.S. Department of Labor. are encouraged to send materials Policy, the U.S. Department of La- Its purpose is to disseminate useful to the editor on a wide variety of is- bor, the IBM Corporation and The information on evaluation issues, sues for possible review in the jour- Ford Foundation. The purpose of activities and results to those re- nal. the project was to increase the in- sponsible for administering, plan- Please send materials and sugges- terest, knowledge and sophistica- ning, managing and overseeing tions to: tion of employment and training employment and training programs professionals at the state and local across the United States. Again, Ann Blalock Editor and Reviewer level regarding program evaluation: each issue of the journal will be Admiralty Inlet Consulting its scientific principles and meth- theme-oriented, and will follow the PO Box 409 ods, its practical applications in bet- same organizational format as in 40536 Skunk Bay Road ter understanding program imple- the past. However, each issue will Hansville, WA 98340 mentation and impact, and its utility feature reviews by the editor and 206-638-2159 as a practical tool for adjusting poli- guest reviewers rather than articles The editor would appreciate your cies and improving programs. The written by practitioners and re- providing the following information project’s series of evaluation guides searchers. with your materials: name, address, can be obtained through the ERIC phone, organizational affiliation, po- system in public libraries, or in book Reader Participation sition in the organization, and major form from the W. E. Upjohn Institute The content of the new version interests re: evaluation issues and/ for Employment Research. of the journal will cover the same kinds of materials as in the past: or activities. Evaluation Forum is a national commentaries, policy analyses; The Features section of the next journal growing out of the five-year program reviews; reports on evalu- issue of Evaluation Forum will focus project and developed specifically ation planning, reports on analyses on economic restructuring, worker for state and local program practi- of monitoring data; research reports dislocation and reemployment. Is- tioners in the employment and on program evaluations or policy sue 12 will focus on issues sur- training field. Its major objective is research; books and articles on rounding youth employment and to communicate information on policy issues, programs and re- training. policy issues and research activi- search; and other materials related ties at the national, state and local to evaluation that would be of inter- level which can inform judgments est to practitioners. about the design and effectiveness of various employment and training policies and strategies. Eight theme-oriented issues of the journal were published as part of the dem- onstration project.