5565 cover front.qxp 7/15/2007 7:28 PM Page C1 The Future of Children PRINCETON - BROOKINGS The Next Generation of Antipoverty Policies VOLUME 17 NUMBER 2 FALL 2007 3 Introducing the Issue 17 Rewarding the Work of Individuals: A Counterintuitive Approach to Reducing Poverty and Strengthening Families 43 Toward a Mandatory Work Policy for Men 73 Next Steps for Federal Child Care Policy 97 A Health Plan to Reduce Poverty 117 Decreasing Nonmarital Births and Strengthening Marriage to Reduce Poverty 143 Reducing Poverty through Preschool Interventions 161 Improving the Education of Children Living In Poverty 183 Improving the Safety Net for Single Mothers Who Face Serious Barriers to Work A PUBLICATION OF THE WOODROW WILSON SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AT PRINCETON UNIVERSITY AND THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION 5565 inside covers.qxp 7/25/2007 10:25 AM Page C2 The Future of Children seeks to translate high-level research into information that is useful to policymakers, practitioners, and the media. The Future of Children is a publication of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and Interna- tional Affairs at Princeton University and the Brookings Institution. Senior Editorial Staff Journal Staff Sara McLanahan Elisabeth Hirschhorn Donahue Editor-in-Chief Associate Editor Princeton University Princeton University Director, Center for Research on Brenda Szittya Child Wellbeing, and William S. Tod Managing Editor Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs Brookings Institution Ron Haskins Julie Clover Senior Editor Outreach Director Brookings Institution Brookings Institution Senior Fellow and Co-Director, Center on Children and Families Lisa Markman Outreach Director Christina Paxson Princeton University Senior Editor Princeton University Director, Center for Health and Wellbeing, and Hughes-Rogers Professor of Economics and Public Affairs Cecilia Rouse Senior Editor Princeton University Director, Education Research Section, and Theodore A. Wells ’29 Professor of Economics and Public Affairs Isabel Sawhill Senior Editor Brookings Institution Senior Fellow, Cabot Family Chair, and Co-Director, Center on Children and Families The Future of Children would like to thank the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the Annie E. Casey Foundation, the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation, the W. K. Kellogg Foundation, the Joyce Foundation, and the Smith Richardson Foundation for their generous support. ISSN: 1054-8289 ISBN-13: 978-0-8157-5565-4 5565 inside covers.qxp 7/25/2007 10:25 AM Page C3 Board of Advisors Jeanne Brooks-Gunn Charles N. Kahn III Columbia University Federation of American Hospitals Peter Budetti Marguerite Sallee Kondracke University of Oklahoma America’s Promise – The Alliance for Youth Judith Feder Rebecca Maynard Georgetown University University of Pennsylvania William Galston Lynn Thoman Brookings Institution Corporate Perspectives University of Maryland Heather B. Weiss Jean B. Grossman Harvard University Public/Private Ventures Amy Wilkins Princeton University Education Reform Now Kay S. Hymowitz Manhattan Institute for Policy Research The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the views of the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University or the Brookings Institution. The Future of Children is copyrighted by Princeton University and the Brookings Institution, all rights reserved. Authorization to photocopy articles for personal use is authorized by The Future of Children. Reprinting is also allowed, so long as the journal article is properly given this attribution: “From The Future of Children, a publication of The Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University and the Brookings Institution.” It is the current policy of the journal not to charge for reprinting, but this policy is subject to change. To purchase a subscription, access free electronic copies, or sign up for our e-newsletter, go to our website, www.futureofchildren.org. If you would like additional information about the jour- nal, please send questions to [email protected]. 00 5565-4 TOC.qxp 7/15/2007 7:29 PM Page 1 The Future of Children PRINCETON - BROOKINGS VOLUME 17 NUMBER 2 FALL 2007 The Next Generation of Antipoverty Policies 3 Introducing the Issue by Ron Haskins and Isabel Sawhill 17 Rewarding the Work of Individuals: A Counterintuitive Approach to Reducing Poverty and Strengthening Families by Gordon L. Berlin 43 Toward a Mandatory Work Policy for Men by Lawrence M. Mead 73 Next Steps for Federal Child Care Policy by Mark Greenberg 97 A Health Plan to Reduce Poverty by Alan Weil 117 Decreasing Nonmarital Births and Strengthening Marriage to Reduce Poverty by Paul R. Amato and Rebecca A. Maynard 143 Reducing Poverty through Preschool Interventions by Greg J. Duncan, Jens Ludwig, and Katherine A. Magnuson 161 Improving the Education of Children Living In Poverty by Richard J. Murnane 183 Improving the Safety Net for Single Mothers Who Face Serious Barriers to Work by Rebecca M. Blank www.futureofchildren.org 00 5565-4 TOC.qxp 7/15/2007 7:29 PM Page 2 01 5565-4 intro.qxp 7/15/2007 7:31 PM Page 3 Introducing the Issue Ron Haskins and Isabel Sawhill urricane Katrina forced the 1960s and then increased in an uneven Americans to confront pattern thereafter, never again equaling its inner-city poverty and mis- low point during the early 1970s. Children’s ery, not least by bringing in- poverty has followed this pattern, with in- delible images of poverty creases in many years after the early 1970s. Honto the nation’s TV screens. The predictable By contrast, the poverty rate among the el- reaction of the news media was that Katrina derly continued to fall throughout the period, revealed poverty as a major problem in the from nearly 25 percent in 1970 to 10 percent United States, a problem that neither the by 2005. The decline in poverty among the government nor the average American was elderly has a straightforward explanation— doing much to fight.1 Social Security.2 Congress increased Social Security benefits several times during the Although the nation is no longer making 1970s and indexed benefits to inflation, major advances against poverty as it did dur- boosting millions of low-income elderly ing the 1960s and early 1970s, it has still Americans above the poverty line. The case made some gains in recent years, especially of the elderly shows that if government gives among particular demographic groups. And people enough money, their poverty rate will there is every reason to believe that further drop. But Americans generally do not sup- progress is possible. The purpose of this vol- port taxing one group of Americans, only to ume of The Future of Children is to present give the money away to another group, espe- and explain several specific public policies cially if the receiving group is able-bodied that would, if well implemented, achieve fur- but not working. ther reductions in poverty. Before reviewing these policies, we briefly survey historical Poverty and the Economy trends in poverty in the United States and ex- As background for proposing new ways to at- amine several of the forces that shaped them. tack poverty, we briefly explore three forces that are widely thought to shape poverty Poverty and Its Causes rates: the economy, changes in family compo- A surprising fact about poverty in the United sition, and changes in government spending. States is that it declined steeply throughout Perhaps surprisingly, the overall performance www.futureofchildren.org Ron Haskins and Isabel Sawhill are senior editors of The Future of Children, co-directors of the Center on Children and Families, and senior fellows in the Economic Studies program at the Brookings Institution, where Sawhill holds the Cabot Family Chair. Haskins is also a senior consultant at the Annie E. Casey Foundation. VOL. 17 / NO. 2 / FALL 2007 3 01 5565-4 intro final.pdf 1 9/4/2007 1:20:35 PM 01 5565-4 intro.qxp 7/15/2007 7:31 PM Page 4 Ron Haskins and Isabel Sawhill of the American economy does not explain Poverty and Family Dissolution the nation’s inability to make substantial gains Changes in family composition have been a against poverty since the 1970s. Although the major force driving Americans into poverty. 1960s saw the highest economic growth rate The story of family composition and poverty is of the last half of the twentieth century, the straightforward. In most years, poverty in fe- following three decades all enjoyed growth of male-headed families is four or five times more than 20 percent in per capita gross do- greater than poverty in married-couple fami- mestic product (GDP). Yet between the early lies. High divorce rates, falling marriage rates, 1970s and the mid-1990s, poverty increased. and rising nonmarital birthrates over the past Why, with the economy growing, was the na- three decades have more than doubled the tion not able to continue the progress it made share of children living with single mothers. against poverty during the 1960s? To para- Even if everything else had stayed the same, phrase President Kennedy’s famous apho- having a higher share of people in female- rism, why didn’t a rising tide lift more boats? headed families would have increased the poverty rate because of the high poverty rate One reason was wage stagnation at the bot- of this family form. One group of prominent tom of the income distribution, which led to scholars estimated that changes in family growing wage inequality. Between 1979 and structure alone would have raised the poverty 1996, inflation-adjusted wages at the tenth rate from 13.3 percent in 1967 to 17 percent percentile of the distribution fell in most by 2003.4 Offsetting forces slowed the rise of years, ending up about 12 percent below poverty, but there is no doubt that one major where they started. Wages recovered during factor underlying the nation’s difficulty in cut- the vibrant economy of the second half of the ting poverty rates is the dramatic increase in 1990s as poverty fell once again, but even so female-headed families.