Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in South Gonder Zone, Ethiopia
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World Journal of Agricultural Research, 2017, Vol. 5, No. 2, 102-110 Available online at http://pubs.sciepub.com/wjar/5/2/6 © Science and Education Publishing DOI:10.12691/wjar-5-2-6 Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in South Gonder Zone, Ethiopia Birhan Getachew* Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Debre Tabor, Debre Tabor, Ethiopia *Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract Agriculture is the most susceptible sector to climate change related hazards. This is due to the fact that climate change affects the two most important direct agricultural production inputs and these are precipitation and temperature. The impacts of climate change on crop production and coping mechanism differ from place to place which is situated in different agro-ecological zones. Therefore, this study analyzed the impacts of climate change on crop yields in three purposively selected woreda’s of south Gonder Zone. Primary and secondary data were used for the study. In this paper, climate data were taken from Bahir Dar Meteorological Agency (BDMA) while crop yield data were obtained from South Gonder Zone Agricultural Development Office (SGZADO). The data were analyzed using SPSS version 20.0 and Microsoft Excel in order to evaluate the impact of climate change on the yields of different crops in South Gonder Zone, Ethiopia. Multiple regression, trend analysis and correlation analytical techniques were used to anlyze the data. The result showed that the annual total rainfall and mean annual temperature have been increased by an average of 126.52mm (p<0.01) and 0.531°C (P<0.01) per year respectively for Addis Zemen Station. This confirms the occurrence of global warming at Addis Zemen station. An increasing trend of crop yield data for rice, teff and maize were observed from 2003-2012 for Addis Zemen station while an increasing trend of crop yield data for teff, wheat, barley, maize, bean and pea have been observed from 2003-2012 for Mekane Eyesus stations. The result obtained from the analysis carried out indicated that the impact of rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature have been statistically insignificant except rainfall against teff, minimum temperature for teff and chickpea crops and maximum temperature for wheat, barley and pea cereal crops at 95% and 99% probability level whereas the impact of climate on the yield of rice, maize,sorghum, bean and cowpea have been statistically insignificant. Efforts should be made to increase the cultivation of crops on which the impacts of climate on their yield is insignificant. Keywords: agriculture, climate, crops, yield, south gonder zone Cite This Article: Birhan Getachew, “Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in South Gonder Zone, Ethiopia.” World Journal of Agricultural Research, vol. 5, no. 2 (2017): 102-110. doi: 10.12691/wjar-5-2-6. which will further damage crops through crop failure, flooding, soil and wind erosion [4]. 1. Background Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperatures eventually reduce yields of desirable Agriculture is the most susceptible sector to climate crops while encouraging weed and pest proliferation. change related hazards. This is due to the fact that climate Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood change affects the two most important direct agricultural of short-run crop failures and long-run production declines. production inputs and these are precipitation and Although there will be gains in some crops in some temperature [1]. Although the effects of changes in regions of the world, the overall impacts of climate change climate on crop yields are likely to vary greatly from on agriculture are expected to be negative, threatening region to region, anticipated changes are expected to have global food security [5]. According to [6] predict an large and far-reaching effects predominantly in tropical overall reduction of 10 percent in maize production in the zones of the developing world with precipitation regimes year 2055 in Africa and Latin America, equivalent to ranging from semiarid to humid [2]. Hazards include losses of $2 billion per year, affecting principally 40 increased flooding in low lying areas, greater frequency million poor livestock keepers in mixed systems of Latin and severity of droughts in semiarid areas, and excessive America and 130 million in those of sub-Saharan Africa. heat conditions, all of which can limit crop growth and Climate change is an important environmental, social yields. As temperatures continue to rise, the impacts on and economic issue. It threatens the achievement of agriculture will be significant [3]. These impacts are Millennium Development Goals aimed at poverty and already being experienced by many communities in hunger reduction, health improvement and environmental countries of the Southern hemisphere. There will also be sustainability. Such issues are particularly important for an increase in droughts and heavy precipitation events, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where many people depend on 103 World Journal of Agricultural Research agriculture for subsistence and income. Agriculture, and country particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of especially crop growing, is heavily dependent on weather climate change on crop and livestock productions. events in SSA, where 97% of agricultural land is rainfed. Generally, increased frequency of droughts and floods The impact of climate change on crop yields is therefore a negatively affects agricultural production, demonstrating major concern in this region [7]. Ethiopia is not an agriculture’s sensitivity to climate change [16]. exception to the adverse impacts of climate change as its Some scholars have conducted research to measure economy is highly dependent upon climate sensitive rain- expected impacts of climate change on agriculture in fed agriculture. The country is among the most vulnerable developing nations [17]. For example, the studies in nations to climate and ecological change, given that only a pastoralist are found out several adaptation mechanisms to small proportion of its cultivated land is irrigated and food reduce farmers’ vulnerability to climate change, regarding production is dependent mainly on traditional rainfed crop production [18,19]. agriculture [8]. The effects of climate change are In different parts of Ethiopia, climate change is substantial, particularly in developing world. These affecting the yield of crop production because they are countries are highly dependent on climate sensitive natural exclusively dependent on rainfed agriculture with little or resource. Sectors for livelihoods and incomes, and the no adaptive strategies to cope up with climate. The challenges in climate that are projected for tropics and magnitude of climate change related problems have been subtropics, where most developing countries are found, intensifying both spatial and temporally. The increase in are generally adverse for agriculture [9]. frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts and Furthermore, the means and capacity in developing floods accompanied by the difficulty in predicating countries to adapt to changes in climate are scarce due to growing seasons create a considerable endanger for the low levels of human and economic development and high achievement of food security. This phenomenon is also rates of poverty. These conditions combine to create a the real manifestation of south Gonder zone where this state of high vulnerability to climate change in most of the investigation was conducted. Currently, of the total developing world [10]. Developing countries have lesser 777,096 population of four woreda i.e. Simada, Ebnat, capacity to adapt and are more vulnerable to climate Lay Gaint and Tach Gaint, 147, 188 populations i.e. 19% change damages, just as they are to other stresses. This of the woreda population are food insecure. Therefore, the condition is extreme among the poorest people [11]. objectives of this study was to examine the trend of crop Many studies have concluded that the agriculture sector production under the prevailing environmental condition of the country is the most affected sector by climate and the relationship between precipitation and temperature change. According to [12] made an integrated quantitative elements on the yield of major crops produced in the study vulnerability assessment for seven Regional States of the area. total eleven regions by using biophysical and social vulnerability indices of Ricardian approach. The study revealed that decline in precipitation and increase in 2. Methods temperature are both damaging to Ethiopian agriculture. In the EACC study, Crop was used to assess the 2.1. Description of the Study Area changes in CO2 concentration, precipitation, and temperature from the four GCMs and was used to estimate Geographically the South Gonder zone is located the changes in production (yield) each year for four major between 11° 02' -12° 33' N latitude and 37° 25' -38° 43'E crops. The yield effects reflect the reductions in yield due longitudes. The zone is bordered on the south by east to either the lack of available water, or due to the Gojjam, on the southwest by west Gojjam and Bahir Dar, overabundance of water that causes waterlogging (FAO, on the west by Lake Tana, on the north by north Gondar, 2008). CO2 fertilization is included in the analysis but on the northeast by Wag Hemra, on the east by north does not make a significant difference. Current research is Wollo, and on the southeast by south Wollo; the Abbay suggesting much smaller CO2 fertilization than initially River separates south Gondar from the two Gojjam Zones thought. Additionally, new research shows that under (see Figure 1) [20]. higher CO2 levels, ozone will also be present and that has The climate of the zone is more influenced by altitude a negative impact on crop yields [13]. and latitude than others. Based on the simplified agro Climate impacts are significant, but variable over climatic classification of Ethiopia, it lies within four agro regions and crop type. The impact of these trends tends to climatic zones. Wurch (Alpine) and Kola (tropical) grow stronger in time.