THE SUM OF THEIR FEARS: THE COMMITTEE ON THE PRESENT DANGER, THE DEMISE OF DÉTENTE, AND THREAT INFLATION, 1976-1980 Nicholas Blackbourn A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of St Andrews 2016 Full metadata for this item is available in St Andrews Research Repository at: http://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/ Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10023/8243 This item is protected by original copyright The Sum of Their Fears: The Committee on the Present Danger, the Demise of Détente, and Threat Inflation, 1976-1980 Nicholas Blackbourn This thesis is submitted in partial fulfilment for the degree of PhD at the University of St Andrews September 2015 Declarations: I, Nicholas Blackbourn, hereby certify that this thesis, which is approximately 79,015 words in length, has been written by me, and that it is the record of work carried out by me and that it has not been submitted in any previous application for a higher degree. I was admitted as a research student in September 2010 and as a candidate for the degree of PhD in History in September 2010; the higher study for which this is a record was carried out in the University of St Andrews between 2010 and 2015. Date 24/09/2015 Signature of candidate: I hereby certify that the candidate has fulfilled the conditions of the Resolution and Regulations appropriate for the degree of PhD in History in the University of St Andrews and that the candidate is qualified to submit this thesis in application for that degree. Date 24/09/2015 Signature of supervisor: In submitting this thesis to the University of St Andrews I understand that I am giving permission for it to be made available for use in accordance with the regulations of the University Library for the time being in force, subject to any copyright vested in the work not being affected thereby. I also understand that the title and the abstract will be published, and that a copy of the work may be made and supplied to any bona fide library or research worker, that my thesis will be electronically accessible for personal or research use unless exempt by award of an embargo as requested below, and that the library has the right to migrate my thesis into new electronic forms as required to ensure continued access to the thesis. I have obtained any third-party copyright permissions that may be required in order to allow such access and migration, or have requested the appropriate embargo below. The following is an agreed request by candidate and supervisor regarding the publication of this thesis: Embargo on electronic copy for a period of five years on the following grounds: publication would be commercially damaging to the researcher; publication would preclude future publication. Date 24/09/2015 Signature of candidate: Signature of supervisor: The Sum of Their Fears: The Committee on the Present Danger, the Demise of Détente, and Threat Inflation, 1976-1980 Nicholas Blackbourn ii Abstract This dissertation seeks to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the political pressure group the Committee on the Present Danger (CPD), which formed in 1976. The group’s establishment, attainment of credibility, and influence in critical national security debates during the late 1970s has not yet been given sufficient attention. The Committee on the Present Danger has often been interpreted as a disingenuous propaganda group that dishonestly compiled an alarmist message to deceive politicians and journalists of the threat posed by the Soviet Union. However, the dissertation argues that the Committee’s alarmism was genuine. The fact that CPD board members themselves became so fearful of the Soviet threat is the most striking aspect of the group’s first four years of operation, and is the primary focus of this study. An examination of the group’s formation and activities from 1976 to 1980 permits a more sophisticated appreciation of the group’s goals, the promotion of its views, and the effects of its campaign on national security debates during this period. The dissertation adopts a chronological approach that recognises the creeping alarmism of the CPD over these years: warning of the dangers of détente gave way to prophesising an imminent Soviet invasion of Western Europe. Keeping the CPD as the focus of study in this period permits one to argue that the Committee’s members, as a private citizens’ group without government oversight and a shared worst-case methodology for assessing national security risks, sincerely came to believe in the veracity of their analysis of imminent Soviet military expansion. Committee experts generated and publicised a number of metrics that purported to demonstrate a military imbalance between the Soviet Union and the United States. Over time, and seemingly confirmed by alleged Soviet global aggression, the Committee came to believe that their worst-case estimates reflected reality. iii Contents Acknowledgements v List of Abbreviations vi Introduction 1 I The Dangers of Détente 31 II 1976 – An Election Year Launch 62 III 1977 – Establishing Credibility 87 IV 1978 – The Military Balance 121 V 1979 – SALT II and the Soviet Victory Strategy 152 VI 1980 – Anyone But Carter 181 VII The Committee on the Present Danger in Perspective 208 Conclusion 241 Bibliography 246 Appendix I - Founding Board Members of the Committee on 273 the Present Danger Appendix II - CPD Publications 1976 - 1980 281 Appendix III - Committee on the Present Danger 283 Appointments to the Reagan Administration in 1981 iv Acknowledgments This project would not have been completed without the love and support from my friends and family. My wife Lauren was my editor and motivator for the entire length of the dissertation and the end result would not have been possible without her. My parents were also subjected to endless project updates and I’m grateful for their patience and unwavering support. My supervisor Professor Jerry DeGroot always helped me improve the project with sound advice and unceasingly helpful comments. Generous funding from the Schools Competition Act Settlement Trust made the project possible in the first instance. I’d like to thank the Trustees not just for funding the study but for the programme’s meetings which provided opportunities to discuss and hone my findings along the way. Funding was also gratefully received from the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Foundation. Their support allowed me to visit Michigan and make use of the Ford Library’s substantial collections. I would also like to thank the archivists at the Hoover Institution for War, Revolution, and Peace, the Manuscript Division at the Library of Congress, and the Ford Presidential Library for their help and assistance in locating relevant material. A final thanks to the students and staff in the School of History at the University of St. Andrews, who challenged my ideas and kept me on my toes throughout this project. The end result is all the better for it. v List of Abbreviations ABM Anti-Ballistic Missile ACDA Arms Control and Disarmament Agency ACEWA The American Committee for East-West Accord ASC The American Security Council CIA The Central Intelligence Agency CPD The Committee on the Present Danger CPTS The Coalition for Peace Through Strength GLCMs Ground Launched Cruise Missiles ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile LRTNF Long-Range Theatre Nuclear Forces MAPS Multiple Aim Point System MIRV Multiple Independently targetable Re-entry Vehicle NIE National Intelligence Estimate NSC-68 National Security Council Report 68 MX Missile eXperimental (LGM-118 Missile) PD-18 Presidential Directive 18 on U.S. National Security PD-59 Presidential Directive 59 on Nuclear Weapons Employment Policy PFIAB President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Talks vi Introduction Détente failed to usher in a new era of peaceful coexistence and was instead losing the United States the Cold War. So argued the Committee on the Present Danger (CPD) who announced in November 1976 that 'Our country is in a period of danger, and the danger is increasing.'1 Many journalists at this public unveiling judged the group as a caricature of missile gap alarmists of the late-1950s. The news magazine New Republic slammed the CPD's warning, calling the group 'ghosts returned' from that earlier nuclear age. 2 Less than two years later, however, the group was frequently introduced as 'non-partisan', 'prominent', and 'influential'. 3 Furthermore, following a series of crises culminating in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in late 1979, the CPD's repeated warning of the Soviet Union's enduring hostility appeared to have 'always been right' to a number of observers in hindsight.4 Ignored or dismissed by numerous national newspapers and politicians in 1976, dozens of CPD board members would join the Reagan Administration in 1981. This was a substantial change of fortune, and this dissertation seeks to understand how in just four years the perception of this group shifted from being an unwelcome group of alarmists to a respected authority on national security issues. In doing so, the dissertation examines the role of the CPD in ending détente, preventing SALT II ratification, and its function in Ronald Reagan’s presidential campaign over 1 CPD Executive Committee, “Common Sense and the Common Danger: Policy Statement of the Committee on the Present Danger”, in Alerting America: The Papers of the Committee on the Present Danger, ed. Charles Tyroler II (New York: Pergamon Press, 1984), 3. 2 Morton Kondracke, “Is There a Present Danger?”, The New Republic, 29 January, 1977, 18. 3 Robert S Allen, “‘SALT Negotiations in Troubled Waters - The Tribune’ in ‘The Second Year as Reflected in the Media’”, 1978, Box 2, CPD Papers, Hoover Institution, Stanford, CA, 17.