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Authoritarian politics of ideas, interests and policy change Finance and development in Putin's Dąbrowska, E.A.

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Citation for published version (APA): Dąbrowska, E. A. (2019). Authoritarian politics of ideas, interests and policy change: Finance and development in Putin's Russia.

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Interviews:

Bunich, Andrei (Author interview), economist and businessman, Director of the Association of Russia's Entrepreneurs and Tenants, 29.10.2012

Danilov, Yuri (Author interview), economist, expert at the Russian Federal Financial Market Agency, 30.10.2012.

Drobyshevsky, Sergei (Author interview), expert on macroeconomic policy at the Gaidar's Institute, 15.10.2012.

Dynkin, Alexandr (Author interview), economist, director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations IMEMO RAN, 22.11.2013.

Ershov, Mikhail (Author interview), economist and banker, professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, director of the department for financial analysis at the Institute for Energy and Finance, expert of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, 17.11.2011.

Gamza, Vladimir (Author interview), economist and banker, deputy director of the Association of Russian Banks “Russia” and of Business Russia, 23.10.2012.

Grigoriev, Leonid (Author interview), professor at the department of world economy, Higher School of Economics, member of the liberal expert organisation Valdai Club, 09.04.2013.

Kagarlitzki, Boris (Author interview), author and director of the Institute of Globalisation and Social Movements, 19.11.2011.

Klepach, Andrei (Author interview), deputy minister at the Ministry of Economic Development, since 2014 deputy chairman of the Russian Development Bank Vneshekonombank, 26.11.2013.

Kuznetsov, Boris (Author interview), researcher in industrial economics at the Higher School of Economics, economist at the expert organisation SIGMA, 18.11.2012.

Lavrovsky, Igor (Author interview), economist, investment policy expert at the business organisation Business Russia, 21.11.2013.

Lebedinskaya, Elena (Author interview), economist of the Economic Expert Group, expert organisation of the Ministry of Finance, 17.10.2012.

Mironov, Valery (Author interview), economist at the Centre for Development, Higher School of Economics, 22.11.2013.

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288 289 Summary

This thesis examines how authoritarian regimes handle potential tension between their legitimating ideology on the one hand and economic policy on the other and traces the dynamics of resulting policy change. Given that this ideology expresses the regime's legitimating story and constitutes its cognitive culture, it is likely to raise expectations in the population and among the elites concerning the regime’s performance. As for economic policy, it needs to serve interests of the narrow circle of ruling elites that might differ from interests of other elite groups and the general population.

This set of problems is examined with reference to Putin's Russia. It is demonstrated how the ’ disappointment with results of nominally liberal reforms in the 1990s facilitat- ed Putin's coming to power in 2000. Putin was aware of this disappointment. Therefore, he invented a legitimating quasi-ideology relying on national conservative ideas that became popular after the failure of reforms. At the same time, Putin continued implementing liberal economic reforms. The study examines how Russian policy makers dealt with the tension between the ideological construction of the regime and the ideational underpinnings of economic policy, and scrutinizes the impact of the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the following political crisis on this ideational conflict. This conflict was mostly visible with regard to the question of abundant oil revenues located in the Stabilisation Fund as well as the related issue of industrial policy.

The policy of monetary scarcity, which was symbolised by the Stabilisation Fund, and the lack of industrial policy were interpreted by Russian national conservatives as endangering

290 291 the existence of the Russian nation and sovereignty of the Russian state. National conserva- does not pose a danger to the regime. However, when such a crisis continues over a longer tive-minded elites contrasted it with Putin’s political quasi-ideology, in which the concept period, followed by recession, it is likely to enhance social discontent and provoke the crisis of sovereignty played an important role. The quasi-ideology raised expectations of a policy of legitimacy by the same token. Thus, an economic crisis makes policy change possible, but engendering “economic and financial sovereignty” that clashed with the actual dependence does not cause it automatically. of the Russian economy on Western financial flows. This contrast created a tension within the institutional framework of Putin's regime. Policy makers within institutions of political In Putin's Russia, the tension between quasi-ideology and the ideational approach to co-optation, such as the Parliament, the Civic Chamber or state-supported business asso- economic policy has been present in policy-making during the 2000s and beyond. Pro- ciations, pushed for a policy change towards “economic and financial sovereignty” that the Kremlin policy actors have addressed it on multiple occasions and promoted a policy of narrow ruling circle was not interested in realising. This tension was likely to exacerbate in “economic and financial sovereignty” that would be compatible with the regime's political the wake of an economic crisis. goals. However, Putin was not entirely fond of the set of policy ideas framed as promoting sovereignty. Related to the milieu of Russian “liberals” during the 1990s, he was cautious as The Russian case is used to theorise the politics of ideas, interests and institutions in concerns the “manipulation” of macroeconomic policy that is favoured by the “sovereignty” authoritarian regimes that are concerned with economic development and at the same time approach. Fear of inflation was the main motivation behind his support of liberal techno- exposed to economic crises. Its analysis leads to a few general claims concerning the dynam- crats in the Ministry of Finance and in the Central Bank. The side effect of anti-inflation ics of ideology and of economic policy-making within such regimes. First of all, it is argued policy – expensive domestic finance – did not provoke him to effect a policy change, as that a quasi-ideology or ideology of the regime matters for the making of economic policy, oligarchs who were close to the regime relied on foreign credits anyway. It was only follow- because it defines how the regime legitimises itself and states its political goals. The ideology ing crises of the regime's legitimacy in 2005 and 2012, ideological consolidation and the constitutes the regime's cognitive culture. Furthermore, such a legitimating set of ideas resulting popular and elite pressure that Putin was incited to forge a compromise between provides a rationale for institutions of political co-optation that matter in the policy-making. the “sovereignty”-faction in the policy-making on the one hand and liberal economists and And it works all the better, the more this (quasi-)ideology relies on ideas that are popular status quo beneficiaries on the other. In addition, business elites that benefited from the in a given society and among its elites. Given this relative effectiveness of (quasi-)ideology, status quo looked for new investment opportunities due to post-crisis economic stagnation, the regime will react to popular pressure to change policy by strengthening the ideological which facilitated policy change in Putin's third term. Overall, looking at the whole period component of its rule. of Putin's rule, Russian economic policy has become increasingly adjusted to sovereignty considerations, but the rigidly orthodox macroeconomic policy, which has negative implica- Further claims concern the relation between the (quasi-)ideology and economic policy. tions for the cost of finance, has not been abandoned. I argue that the legitimating quasi-ideology does not necessarily determine the ideational approach to public policy, including economic policy. Economic policy is chosen in accor- dance with authorities' ideas and interests. The latter equally determine the relative power differentials among institutions of policy-making. Nevertheless, whenever there is tension between the apparent political goals of the regime as expressed in the quasi-ideology and its economic policy, policy actors address it and use quasi-ideology to promote policy ideas that are in line with their interests. In this way, they put pressure on authorities to change policy and their efforts are likely to lead to a limited policy change. Elite pressure is likely to matter more than popular due to a potential danger of a coup d'état.

A further set of claims concerns the role of crises in potentially facilitating policy change. I argue that policy change is likely when an economic crisis is accompanied by a crisis of the regime's legitimacy endangering its survival. However, a crisis of legitimacy does not automatically accompany any economic crisis. An economic crisis is potentially explainable by authorities as not caused by the regime's failure, in which case economic downturn

292 293 Samenvatting

In deze dissertatie wordt onderzocht, hoe autoritaire regimes omgaan met de mogelijke spanningen tussen enerzijds de ideologie die ten grondslag ligt aan hun legitimiteit en anderzijds hun economisch beleid. Tevens zal een poging worden ondernomen, beleidswi- jzigingen als gevolg van die spanningen in kaart te brengen. Aangezien deze legitimerende ideologie een steunpilaar vormt onder het constituerende verhaal van een regime, schept het mogelijk verwachtingen onder zowel de bevolking als elites, over de prestaties of performan- tie van het regime. Economisch beleid daarentegen dient de belangen van een kleine kring van machthebbers en bestuurlijke elites, die niet per se met de belangen van andere elites of die van de bredere bevolking overeenkomen.

Dit complex van problemen zal worden onderzocht aan de hand van het Rusland van Vladimir Poetin. Reeds aangetoond is, hoe de teleurstelling van de Russische bevolking over de nominaal liberale hervormingen in de jaren negentig de machtsgreep van Vladimir Poetin in het jaar 2000 mogelijk maakte. Poetin was zich van deze teleurstelling terdege bewust en schiep daarom een legitimerende schijnideologie, gebaseerd op conservatieve ideeën die na de mislukte hervormingen aan populariteit wonnen. De invoering van liberale economische hervormingen zette Poetin echter onverminderd door. In deze studie wordt onderzocht, hoe Russische beleidsmakers omgingen met de spanningen tussen de ideologische opbouw van het systeem enerzijds en de bredere paradigmatische kaders van het economisch beleid anderzijds en tevens de invloed van de economische crisis van 2008-2009 en de daaropvolgende politieke crisis op dit spanningsveld. Bijzonder zichtbaar werd dit conflict in de vraag, over de verdeling van de baten uit de aardolieproductie,

294 295 ondergebracht in het zogeheten Stability Fund alsmede het hiermee nauw in verbinding waarschijnlijkheid tot beperkte beleidswijziging. Druk vanuit de elites zal daarbij, vanwege staande industriebeleid van de Russische Federatie. het risico op een staatsgreep of regimewissel, vermoedelijk van grotere invloed zijn dan maatschappelijk druk. Het anti-inflationair beleid, gesymboliseerd door het Stability Fund, en het ontbreken van industriebeleid werden door Russische nationaal-conservatieven gezien als een bedreig- Verdere aannames hebben betrekking op de invloed van crisissen op beleidswijzigingen. ing voor het Russische volk en voor de soevereiniteit van de Russische staat. Elites dichtbij Hier zal worden betoogd, dat beleidswijzigingen in die gevallen waarschijnlijk zijn, indien de nationaal-conservatieven maten dit af aan de politieke schijn- of quasi-ideologie van zij gepaard gaan met een legitimiteitscrisis, die het overleven van het regime in gevaar Vladimir Poetin, waarin het concept van soevereiniteit een belangrijke rol speelde. Deze kan brengen. Echter, een legitimiteitscrisis gaat niet noodzakelijkerwijze gepaard met een schijnideologie creëerde verwachtingen ten aanzien van een economisch beleid, dat “econo- economische crisis, die door het regime nog verklaard en als niet door het regime zelf mische en financiële soevereiniteit” voorstond, maar dat zich maar moeilijk liet rijmen met veroorzaakt verklaard kan worden. Duurt zo’n crisis echter voort, gevolgd door een recessie, de afhankelijkheid van de Russische economie van geldstromen uit het Westen. Dit contrast zo kan deze sociale onrust versterken en alsnog een legitimiteitscrisis tot gevolg hebben. Een wederom leidde tot institutionele spanningen binnen Poetins regime. Beleidsmakers in economische crisis kan dus beleidswijzigingen mogelijk maken, maar is er niet automatisch instellingen die politiek coöpteerden, zoals de Doema, de Burgerkamer van de Russische de oorzaak van. Federatie en door de staat ondersteunde industriefederaties propageerden een beleid van “economische en financiële soevereiniteit”, waar de nauwere machtscirkels geen belang bij In het Rusland van Vladimir Poetin staan de quasi-ideologie en het bredere paradigma- hadden. Deze spanning nam toe voorafgaand aan de economische crisis. tisch kader van het economisch beleid reeds sinds het begin van de 21e eeuw op gespannen voet met elkaar. Beleidsacteurs aan de zijde van de machthebbers hebben deze discrep- Het Russische voorbeeld dient ertoe, om de politiek van ideeën, belangen en instituties antie herhaaldelijk aangesproken en hebben een beleid van “economische en financiële” in autoritaire regimes met betrekking tot hun economisch beleid te theoretiseren. Deze soevereiniteit gepropageerd, dat overeenkomstig de politieke doelen van het regime zou analyse zal uitmonden in een reeks algemene aannames aangaande de dynamiek van ideol- zijn. Echter, Poetin was nooit een groot voorstander van ideeën die onder de noemer van ogie en economische besluitvormingsprocessen in dergelijke regimes. Als eerste zal worden de promotie van soevereiniteit gekaderd werden. Afkomstig uit het milieu van Russische geargumenteerd, dat een quasi-ideologie of een ideologie van een regime van betekenis is “liberalen” gedurende de jaren ‘90, was hij huiverig voor de “manipulatie” en macro-econ- voor economische besluitvorming, omdat dit deze mede beslissend is voor de wijze waarop omisch beleid dat gefavoriseerd werd door aanhangers van de soevereiniteitsbenadering. het regime zichzelf en zijn politieke doelen legitimeert. De ideologie komt overeen met de Vrees voor inflatie was de belangrijkste drijfveer achter zijn steun voor liberale technocraten zogeheten cognitieve cultuur van een regime. Verder dient een dergelijke funderende set binnen het Russische Ministerie van Financiën en de Centrale Bank. Een bijkomend gevolg van ideeën voor instellingen van politieke coöptatie als grondslag voor besluitvorming. Dit van het anti-inflationaire beleid – dure binnenlandse financiering – was voor hem geen samenspel van ideologie en besluitvorming zal beter functioneren, naarmate deze quasi-ide- reden, zijn beleid te wijzigen, aangezien oligarchen toch afhankelijk waren van buitenlandse ologie geworteld is in opvattingen die draagvlak genieten in een maatschappij en binnen financiering. Pas na de legitimiteitscrisissen van 2005 en 2012, ideologische consolidatie en, haar elites. Het regime zal, gezien deze relatieve effectiviteit van (quasi-) ideologie, geneigd als gevolg daarvan, druk vanuit zowel de maatschappij als vanuit de elites, zag Poetin zich zijn, op maatschappelijke druk met een verdere ideologisering te reageren. genoodzaakt, een compromis te smeden tussen het front van de soevereiniteitsfractie binnen de beleidselites enerzijds en liberale economen en begunstigden van de status quo ander- Verdere theses zullen worden geformuleerd met betrekking tot de verhouding tussen zijds. Bovendien waren de zakenelites, die geprofiteerd hadden van de oude status quo, na (quasi-) ideologie en economisch beleid. Ik zal betogen, dat de constituerende quasi-ide- de stagnatie die volgde op de crisis, op zoek naar nieuwe investeringsobjecten. Dit was een ologie niet per definitie bepalend is voor het paradigmatische kader van openbaar beleid, verdere drijfveer voor beleidswijzigingen in Poetins derde regeringstermijn. inclusief het economisch beleid. Economisch beleid wordt mede bepaald overeenkomstig Al met al is het Russische economische beleid toenemend rekening is gaan houden met ideeën en belangen binnen een regime. Echter, in die gevallen waarin er spanning ontstaat soevereniteitsoverwegingen. Het rigide, orthodoxe macro-economische beleid met alle tussen de schijnbare politieke doelen van het regime, zoals vastgelegd in de quasi-ideologie negatieve effecten op de prijs van financiering tot gevolg, is echter nog niet opgegeven. en het economisch beleid, zullen beleidsmakers deze ideologie inzetten om het beleid overeenkomstig hun eigen belangen bij te sturen. Op deze wijze zetten zij druk op de autoriteiten, teneinde het bestaande beleid aan te passen, en hun inspanningen leiden in alle

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