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Mid-Year 2021 Office Market Report Downtown Chicago Contents

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Mid-Year 2021 Office Market Report Downtown Chicago Contents MID-YEAR 2021 OFFICE MARKET REPORT DOWNTOWN CHICAGO CONTENTS Market Overview 4 Downtown Chicago Submarket Comparison Summary 6 Submarket Comparisons, Economic Indicators, 7 and Market Trends Central Loop 8 East Loop 10 Fulton Market/River West 12 North Michigan Avenue 14 River North 16 South Loop 18 West Loop 20 Submarket Location Map 22 2 | BRADFORD ALLEN // TCN WORLDWIDE MID-YEAR 2021 MARKET REPORT | 3 RECORD-SETTING DIRECT AVAILABILITY AND VACANCY RATES RISE ACROSS CHICAGO’S CBD At 2021’s midyear, Chicago’s Central Business District (CBD) office Elizabeth and the WPP Group (30,000 s.f.) at 333 N. Green, respectively. Q2/21 MARKET REPORT | 5 market endured yet another quarter of record-breaking declines in Additionally, Lactalis Heritage Dairy agreed to sublease a portion of occupancy. Quarter over quarter, the overall direct availability rate rose iManage’s space on the third floor within the Bank of America Tower from 19.19% to 19.48% , overall direct vacancy rose from 13.47% to (35,000 s.f). New subleases to hit the market during the second quarter 14.01% (highest on record for both), and overall gross asking rents rose included VelocityEHS’s 90,000 s.f. at theMart, PricewaterhouseCoopers’ from $40.78 p.s.f. to $41.13 p.s.f.1 70,000 s.f. at 1 N. Wacker, and McGraw Hill’s 50,000 s.f. at One Prudential Plaza. The first week of June revealed the beginnings of a return to normalcy. With over fifty percent of the metro vaccinated for Covid, mass transit OFFICE MARKET FORECASTS ridership increased, restaurants enjoyed diners in queues, and tenants started to tour for office space once again. Yet, less than one million According to a survey of local business leaders published in late May by square feet of leasing transactions were recorded during the second First Midwest Bank and Crain’s Chicago Business, 35.1% revealed they quarter, revealing a continued hesitancy in the market. Landlords expect their workforce to return to the office for 76% – 100% of the time maintained their firm stance on rental asking rates, yet generous — a 40% drop from their pre-pandemic recorded levels (see BACK TO beneficial occupancy, abatement, and tenant improvement packages WORK). The results of this study confirm our beliefs that the hybrid office effectively lowered them for both new deals and renewals. Kimberly Clark appears to be the working model for the near term. signed a new lease to occupy 87,000 s.f. at 1155 W. Fulton, once reserved The respondents stated they predicted their office footprints to remain for WeWork before it bought out its lease obligation last summer; and the same (61.7%), shrink (29.1%), or expand (9.2%), but gauging overall Ipsos exercised its termination option on 77,000 s.f. at 222 S. Riverside office space demand is more than ascertaining current organizations’ to backfill West Monroe Partners’ 60,000 s.f. at The Franklin it vacated future needs. Compared to a year ago, 64% said their businesses were last year. The positive momentum from midsize tenant move-ins — growing. With economic and employment growth on the rise, office space CMAP (37,000 s.f.) into the Old Post Office, Schiller DuCanto & Fleck demand should increase from businesses new to the market to allay some (27,000 s.f.) into 321 N. Clark, and Impact Networking (50,000 s.f.) of the uncertainty still present in the minds of office occupiers. Despite expanding into four floors at 150 N. Michigan — made up most of the some positive markers, tenant hesitation continues to persist, and the positive absorption during the second quarter. Unfortunately, by the end CBD’s office inventory is still projected to grow by four million s.f. over the of the second quarter, there were more move-outs than move-ins with next two years. We are left to believe office availability and vacancy will the market posting 963,729 s.f. of negative absorption for the second continue to rise while effective rental rates to dip over the remainder quarter, for a total of nearly two million s.f. of negative absorption of the year. year to date. DOWNTOWN CHICAGO By the end of 2021’s second quarter, two sizeable office buildings with Available and vacant subleases continue to plague the office market, as Google as their anchor tenant were sold or under contract. 1K Fulton sold the overall sublet availability (3.93%) and vacancy (1.73%) rates grew for $357 million (or $672 p.s.f.) and 210 N. Carpenter should fetch $169 Q2/21 SNAPSHOT by roughly 15 basis points each, quarter over quarter. At quarter’s end, million (or $617 p.s.f.). Continuing the prognosis set last year, we foresee both TikTok and the Farmers’ Business Network were in confirmed office acquisitions in the loop to be either value-priced or fully discussions to sublease from the tenants Mosaic (40,000 s.f.) at 320 N. occupied assets. 19.48% 14.01% $41.13 DIRECT AVAILABILITY DIRECT VACANCY DIRECT GROSS 1 Property data were compiled from CoStar with these parameters: existing and under-renovation office property type, excluding non-conforming and owner-occupied properties; and within Central, East, South and West Loop, N. Michigan Avenue, River North, and Fulton Market/River West. Absorption numbers are calculated using currently reported square footage in CoStar, standardized over RATE RATE ASKING RATE the last four quarters. 4 | BRADFORD ALLEN // TCN WORLDWIDE MID-YEARQ1/21 2021 MARKET REPORT | 5 DOWNTOWN CHICAGO SUBMARKET COMPARISON SUMMARY SUBMARKET COMPARISONS, ECONOMIC INDICATORS, AND MARKET TRENDS 25% GROSS DIRECT NET AVERAGE DIRECT SUBLET DIRECT SUBLET YTD SUBMARKET/ INVENTORY ASKING ABSORPTION BUILDING AVAILABILITY AVAILABILITY VACANCY VACANCY ABSORPTION ASSET CLASS (SF) RATE Q2/21 SIZE (SF) RATE (%) RATE (%) RATE (%) RATE (%) (SF) 20% (DIRECT) (SF) 15% CBD 154,324,330 358,894 19.48% 3.93% 14.01% 1.73% $41.14 (963,729) (1,922,516) Q2/21 DIRECT NET ABSORPTION (SF) 10% CLASS A 98,082,169 778,430 18.80% 3.81% 13.32% 1.47% $44.76 (738,745) (741,628) CLASS B 49,324,449 230,488 20.85% 4.55% 15.02% 2.42% $36.26 (228,943) (981,543) 5% 200,000 CLASS C 6,917,712 76,863 19.34% 1.17% 16.48% 0.29% $28.88 3,959 (199,345) 0% 0 CENTRAL LOOP 36,168,429 548,007 22.73% 2.93% 15.12% 1.27% $41.16 (110,934) (500,213) (200,000) CLASS A 21,453,016 794,556 22.49% 3.14% 12.93% 1.12% $44.27 (1,132) (81,562) DIRECT VACANCY RATE (%) (400,000) CLASS B 13,922,916 464,097 23.16% 2.76% 18.13% 1.57% $37.19 (96,481) (381,437) (600,000) CLASS C 792,497 88,055 21.64% 0.00% 21.36% 0.00% $26.34 (13,321) (37,214) (800,000) EAST LOOP 26,284,561 486,751 20.00% 2.92% 15.72% 1.85% $36.83 (141,159) (416,922) (1,000,000) Central East Fulton N. Michigan River South West CBD CBD CBD CBD CLASS A 17,563,529 1,033,149 20.07% 2.90% 15.37% 1.50% $38.57 (115,334) (198,310) Loop Loop Market/ Avenue North Loop Loop A B C All River West CLASS B 6,299,711 331,564 20.79% 3.88% 17.63% 3.38% $35.30 (52,187) (148,202) Direct Vacancy Rate (%) Absorption (SF) CLASS C 2,421,321 134,518 17.42% 0.58% 13.19% 0.40% $27.69 26,362 (70,410) FULTON MARKET/ 7,325,563 110,993 27.03% 5.51% 24.99% 1.23% $42.01 32,402 440,481 RIVER WEST PROJECTED OFFICE SF CLASS A 4,287,691 252,217 30.24% 7.28% 30.24% 1.38% $47.78 58,039 540,019 GOING BACK TO THE OFFICE ProjectedREQUIREMENTS Office SF Requirements CLASS B 2,119,975 64,242 23.66% 4.31% 16.60% 1.45% $31.37 (30,594) (66,892) 9.2% CLASS C 917,897 57,369 19.83% 0.00% 19.83% 0.00% $30.21 4,957 (32,646) 76% - 100% of the time N. MICHIGAN 11,988,238 352,595 12.73% 2.48% 9.59% 1.67% $42.10 295 (68,090) 51%% - 75% of the time AVENUE 29.1% CLASS A 7,742,784 595,599 11.56% 2.89% 8.58% 1.99% $45.37 (7,802) (61,079) 26% - 50% of the time 61.7% CLASS B 4,245,454 202,164 14.86% 1.73% 11.43% 1.09% $37.34 8,097 (7,011) 10% - 25% of the time RIVER NORTH 16,892,739 168,927 17.41% 5.72% 12.18% 2.83% $39.22 4,441 (59,570) 0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% CLASS A 5,572,135 619,126 14.62% 2.63% 13.31% 0.83% $42.72 20,368 91,924 Post-pandemic, Percentage Workfoce was in the office Pre-pandemic, Percentage Workfoce was in the office Expand Shrink No Change Expand ↑ Shrink ↓ No Change = Source: April 16-28, 2021 Survey ©2021 First Midwest Bank, April 16-28, 2021 Source: April 16-28, 2021 Survey ©2021 First Midwest Bank CLASS B 9,867,868 156,633 18.88% 8.19% 11.12% 4.33% $39.06 596 (122,620) CLASS C 1,452,736 51,883 18.16% 0.75% 15.12% 0.27% $29.72 (16,523) (28,874) ILLINOIS JOB SECTORS WITH LEAST/MOST LOSSES Q2/21 ECONOMIC INDICATORS (IN THOUSANDS) SOUTH LOOP 1,604,160 133,680 53.72% 0.30% 18.90% 0.30% $25.24 (1,900) (153) Q2/20 Q2/21 MAY 2021 % CHANGE, YOY CLASS B 1,379,261 172,408 60.91% 0.35% 20.50% 0.35% $25.30 1,100 4,748 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (CCI) 98.1 127.3 TOTAL NONFARM 4,439.80 7.30% CLASS C 224,899 56,225 9.64% 0.00% 9.07% 0.00% $22.97 (3,000) (4,901) LEISURE & HOSPITALITY 370.7 37.80% US, 4-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE (JUNE), 1,441,500 394,750 INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS WEST LOOP 54,060,640 551,639 17.16% 4.75% 12.35% 1.75% $45.37 (746,874) (1,318,049) OTHER SERVICES 179.5 13.20% US UNEMPLOYMENT 13.00% 5.50% TRADE, TRANSPORTATION & UTILITIES 916.6 9.10% CLASS A 41,463,014 964,256 17.09% 4.52% 11.79% 1.65% $47.86 (692,884) (1,032,620) MANUFACTURING 390.2 0.80% COOK COUNTY UNEMPLOYMENT 16.80% 8.70% CLASS B 11,489,264 287,232 16.68% 5.56% 13.55% 2.22% $38.38 (59,474) (260,129) INFORMATION 70.3 -2.60% CLASS C 1,108,362 73,891 24.97% 5.04% 20.69% 0.59% $31.12 5,484 (25,300) PRIME RATE 3.25% 3.25% MINING & LOGGING 1.7 -5.60% 6 | BRADFORD ALLEN // TCN WORLDWIDE MID-YEAR 2021 MARKET REPORT | 7 Central Loop Sublet Availability (%) Quarter Over Quarter 3.15% WACKER DRIVE 3.10% 3.05% WELLS 3.00% STATE 2.95% 2.90% CENTRAL 2.85% CONGRESS PARKWAY 2.80% Q1/2021 Q2/2021 Central Loop Direct Vacancy (%), Quarter over Quarter LOOP 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Despite Central Loop’s Class A overall direct availability rate dropping 34 basis points AC to 22.49% and its direct vacancy rate dipping 17 basis points to 12.93%, overall direct availability and vacancy rates rose by 29 basis points to 22.73% and 37 basis points to 15.12%, respectively.
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