2014

Fred Kirschenmann • Ann Tutwiler • Calestous Juma • Andrew Guzman • Andreas Merkl Kathleen Merrigan • Jim Harkness • David Gustafson • Robert Paarlberg • Gus Schumacher • John Piotti the 2014 camden conference HIGHLIGHTS The Global Politics of Food and Water Moderated by John Piotti

ood and water shortages are be- coming an increasingly important F issue as fishing industries collapse, America’s breadbasket and vegetable patch experience devastating droughts, and rising sea levels threaten mass dis- placement in the developing world. As the climate changes, conflicts over food and water resources are already desta- bilizing governments and creating refugees in the thousands. These prob- lems are exacerbated by the virtual cer- tainty that the world will see an enor- mous increase in human population in the coming decades. The 2014 Camden Conference exam- ined the geopolitical landscape of food and water here in the United States and KEYNOTE ADDRESS: Developing an Ecological Conscience around the world, including especially What Will the Future of Agriculture Look Like? ...... 1 China and Africa. The talks presented by Fred Kirschenmann national and international leaders in sci- ence, politics and agriculture weighed The Role of Biodiversity in Adapting to Climate Change ...... 3 potential solutions to these problems, Ann Tutwiler ranging from adoption of an entirely dif- ferent, more sustainable agricultural envi- Africa’s Next Harvest: ronment, to better nutritional approaches, Technological Leapfrogging and Sustainable Agriculture ...... 5 to keeping discarded plastic out of our Calestous Juma world’s oceans—all the while accepting the limits of global governance. Overheated: The Human Cost of Climate Change ...... 7 What emerged from these talks and Andrew Guzman questions from an attentive audience was a sense of the massive scale of both New Solutions for a Changing Ocean ...... 9 the food and water challenges facing the Andreas Merkl world and the cultural shifts that will be required to avert disaster on these fronts. Agricultural Solutions for Global Food Security A Multi-Systems Appro ach ...... 10 Kathleen Merrigan, Jim Harkness, David Gustafson

International Food Security: The Limits of Global Governance ...... 14 Robert Paarlberg

Growing the Local Farmers’ Markets: Future Trends ...... 16 Gus Schumacher

Final Panel Highlights ...... 17 Fred Kirschenmann, Calestous Juma, Andrew Guzman, Kathleen Merrigan, Jim Harkness, David Gustafson, Robert Paarlberg, Gus Schumacher

P.O. Box 882, Camden ME 04843-0882 • Telephone: 207-236-1034 Email: [email protected] • Website: www.camdenconference.org © 2014 The Camden Conference 2014 Keynote Address Developing an Ecological Conscience What will the future of agriculture look like?

Fred Kirschenmann

red Kirschenmann’s keynote address to the 27th Annual evidence America’s Ogallala Aquifer, which exists under Camden Conference showed why this North Dakota eight Midwestern states and is one of the world’s largest. It Ffarmer and Iowa State professor is considered one of has been depleted by half since 1960, and it is predicted that the leading thinkers on food issues in America today. in 20 years there will be no more water left to even irrigate the Kirschenmann offered opinions, presented challenges and American heartland, making one of our key water sources for issued warnings about why and how agriculture needs to growing crops no longer available. Couple this with the adapt to become truly sustainable and capable of feeding an increasing global impacts of climate change and extreme exploding world population. weather events, and the future of the world’s food supply, as Kirschenmann began by debunking the idea that focus- well as our own, certainly appears to be endangered. ing on food production alone will be the answer to feeding “And those who think that we can always come up with a the predicted nine billion people on earth by 2050. He called new technology to replace some gift of nature that we’ve lost, that idea simplistic and one that ignores addressing the need that we no longer have, are not paying attention,” he said. for “Solving for Pattern,” explaining that huge problems are Fred Kirschenmann believes we have been living with always part of a variety of issues, and that the whole pattern paradox. On the one hand, our present day methods of agri- they create must be recognized and confronted if there is culture have achieved bounteous yields, but on the other he going to be a real and lasting solution. considers this a “blip in human history” and the “least effi- “Hunger is not a problem primarily of producing enough cient food system ever known to man.” food. We’re currently procuring enough food to feed ten billion This “Neo-Caloric” era of food production has been all people and yet we have a billion who are going hungry,” he about the use of stored energy, primarily from fossil fuels, said. “Hunger is a problem of poverty and inequality. It doesn’t that has allowed humans to consume more calories (a calorie make any difference how much corn and soy beans we pro- being a unit of energy that produces heat) than we produce. duce in Iowa if people in Tanzania can’t afford to buy it.” Now that man is running out of cheap and abundant sources As an example, Kirschenmann cited a study that found of energy, Kirschenmann believes a number of crucial that only a miniscule percentage of corn shipped down the changes to the way we grow food and the way we eat are Mississippi River reached the countries in need of it the most. already taking place. For the places in the world with the least food, more than for- eign aid is essential. FRED KIRSCHENMANN has been involved in sustainable agri- For people to be able to feed themselves they need to be culture and food issues most of his life. He currently serves as empowered to achieve that goal, he said. Access to land, to a Distinguished Fellow at the Leopold Center for Sustainable capital, and to information are necessary to farm successfully Agriculture at Iowa State University and as President of the and must be part of the approach to eradicating world Stone Barns Center for Food and Agriculture in Pocantico Hills, hunger. Kirschenmann added that since 70 percent of the New York. He also manages his family’s 1800-acre certified or- world’s farmers are women, insuring their equality and edu- ganic farm in North Dakota. In 2010, the University Press of cation are particularly vital. Kentucky published his book, Cultivating an Ecological Conscience: Kirschenmann turned next to the rapidly diminishing Essays from a Farmer Philosopher, which traces the evolution of amount of fresh water available for agriculture. He cited as Kirschenmann’s ecological and farming philosophy.

CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS | 1 Fred Kirschenmann

As energy and food production become more expensive nial based. Perennial crops, which are planted once and live we will move to a more ecologically sustainable model with for seve ral years, also nourish the soil and allow for more effi- more reliance on regional and local food sources. That will cient use of water applied to them. This is a biology that he also mean we will be forced to change our diets. But in the calls more “self-regulating and self-renewing.” perceived battle between industrial or organic farming as the Kirschenmann sees the future of food and the future of preferred way to move forward, Kirschenmann sees neither man as inseparably intertwined. The challenges we face, he as the path to the future. believes, will require nothing short of a new culture for both Instead, he sees both as part of the same paradigm. Both how and what food is grown and eaten. In addition, he says aspire to “maximum efficient production for short term eco- the current way in which food is traded and sold will have to nomic profit.” And what has made that system work so far be reconsidered. has been the supply of affordable energy and inputs (feed, Just as farmers and consumers will have to adapt, seed, fertilizer) and the earth’s stable climate, all of which will Kirschenmann believes that new and different economic mod- no longer be a given. els will need to be part of the transformation, too. Food may “If we think we can intensify everything that we have have to be thought of as more than a commodity that is basi- been doing in the past in order to produce more food for the cally valued financially and produced for the highest profit. future,” he said, “those natural resources that we have “As humans we see ourselves somehow separate,” he depended on are not going to be there for us.” Both farmers said. “We feel we are the conquerors and force the rest of using synthetic inputs and those who employ only natural nature to do whatever we want it to do.” methods to grow food depend upon these increasingly scarce Kirschenmann’s final appeal was for us to develop what resources. The new path that he says must be taken will be he calls an “ecological conscience,” a caring attitude toward different. everything that shares existence with “What would that kind of agriculture “If we really want us from the microbes in the ground and look like?” he said. “If we really want to the plants that grow in it, to all the other have a sustainable agriculture we have to have a forms of life that inhabit the world with to do it the way nature does it, because sustainable us. In o rder for this to occur, he realizes nature has been around a long time.” a social evolution will have to happen, Planting “cover crops” that you can agriculture, we which will instill in each of us a belief in grow in the same ground at the same have to do it the the earth’s sacredness and our respon- time with “monoculture” crops like corn sibility to protect it. and soybeans is one of the practices way nature does it” In closing, he talked about how the that needs to gain traction, according to arts can play an important role in steer- Kirschenmann. The benefit of this is that it keeps fields green ing us into the future. He read a friend’s fictitious letter written longer, which creates the microbes that naturally inhabit by a descendant a hundred years in the future, excoriating the healthy soil. Over time, better soil would mean that fertilizer price of our failure to have changed our ways: “And if you and pesticide use could be cut dramatically while still main- knew and if you cared, how could you not act? What excuses taining the same yields created when using them. did you make? And now what would you have us do?” A second change that Kirschenmann sees as necessary If we don’t act, it won’t be because we haven’t been to creating a more sustainable agriculture is transitioning warned by the likes of Fred Kirschenmann. from annual agricultural systems to ones that are more peren-
Reported by Peter Imber

2 | CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS Biodiversity and Adapting to Climate Change Ann Tutwiler

he challenge before us today is to increase global food lenges. We still have 150,000 million who are hungry, 1 billion supplies by 60 percent to feed 9 billion people in people facing obesity and hundreds of millions of people fac- “T2050,” Ann Tutwiler told the audience. “This is as ing micro-nutrient deficiencies, Tutwiler said. great a challenge as faced us in the early 1960s, at the begin- We still need to increase productivity to feed the antici- ning of what we call the Green Revolution.” pated 9 billion people, but we need to do so in the face of cli- The Green Revolution initially focused on Asia, particularly mate change. Tutwiler said the world is losing 40 million tons in India and China, countries which suffered severe famines, of grain production a year due to climate change. By 2050, she said. Agricultural researchers developed new varieties of according to researchers, yields are projected to decrease by high yield rice, wheat, and corn through improved plant breed- 15 percent in Africa and by 18 percent in Asia. ing, irrigation, and fertilizer, and the gains achieved in these In response to this, Tutwiler suggests the agriculture sec- countries were tremendous. In a 40-year time span, yields tor needs to minimize risk through biodiversity. Just what is and food production were more than doubled. agricultural biodiversity? Thousands of varieties of quinoa, The Green Revolution jumped-started economic develop- bananas, and millet represent just a few examples of the vast ment in India and China and reduced their global proportion genetic assets we can deploy to help cope with the risks from of hungry people by 10 perc ent, Tutwiler further stated. But climate change, according to Tutwiler. these gains came at a price. The over- In closing, she outlined some neces- use of agricultural chemicals polluted sary steps to prepare for future climate ground water, thirsty crops depleted “One of the most change. Tutwiler said it is essential to aquifers, and heavy machinery com- important things maintain genetic diversity on farms so pacted and degraded soils. that researchers will have the genetic The agriculture model that was es- we need to do is material to draw on. More research poused during the Green Revolution to change our needs to be conducted into crops that promoted vastly simplified diets. It fo- are more drought and flood tolerant and cused on three of the 7,000 plants in the way of thinking.” are more resilient to climate change. world, the rationale being these were Researchers need to learn how best to stap le crops that formed the basis of most people’s diets. manage these plants, she said, and to build a strong evi- “They supplied the most calories, and at that point in time dence base so farmers will adopt them. we thought calories were all that we needed to ensure we didn’t have starvation,” Tutwiler said. ANN TUTWILER is the Director General of Bioversity Interna- Due to public and private investment, Tutwiler said we tional, an international research for development organization now get over 50 percent of our calories from three crops: rice, that is a member of the Consultative Group on International wheat, and corn. These staple crops replaced traditional Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Consortium. As the Director foods that were often high in nutrients and resilient to cli- General, Tutwiler is responsible for leading Bioversity Interna- mate shocks and variable weather patterns. tional, forging effective research partnerships and overseeing Now we find ourselves in 2014, facing a new set of chal- the organization’s strategic prio rities and research agenda.

CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS | 3 Ann Tutwiler

The private sector, which outspends public sector organ- change our way of thinking,” Tutwiler said. “We need to izations in agricultural development research 11 to one, begin to think that this is not an ‘either/or’ strategy. We need needs to invest more. She said, “We need to work with the to change our thinking, change our paradigm so that we are private sector to try to bring some of the knowledge back learning how to incorporate the benefits of agricultural bio- into the forgotten crops.” diversity and the benefits of some of these production prac- Better public policy and government support is also tices into modern agriculture so that we can get the kind of needed with regard to the biodiversity of seeds, crops, fertil- yield growth and productivity growth that we know we need izer and to feeding the hungry. to feed 9.5 billion people.” “One of the most important things we need to do is to
Reported by Carol Witham

Q&A Q: You focus on the supply side, but what about Q: Could you speak to how women’s nutrition Q: Can you address patenting seeds and prob- the demand side, cookbooks and recipes? and health is a part of this whole challenge? lems around that? Nutrient value of grains is Tutwiler: On the demand side, malnutrition Tutwiler: Most of the crops that we work going down with the high CO2 content, is that and obesity is a growing problem in our with are crops traditionally grown by women. something we are still concerned about? world, and not just in our country, but also in So, it is important for my organization to Tutwiler: The question of patents is a difficult the developing world. This is not just a rich work with women p roducing and improving one because I think we all know that in country phenomenon. Many of the crops I productivity of these crops. The income order for companies to invest in new tech- was talking about are more nutritious. They comes to these women who then spend the nologies they need to have incentives in are often seen as poor peoples’ crops and are money on the healthcare and education of order to do so. We need to find ways of difficult to process. We have done some their families. getting the seeds to the farmers. We are interesting work in Kenya with women’s working with farme rs in informal seed sys- cooperatives on reintroducing African leafy Q: How is wildlife diversity accommodated in tems, seeds that they are trading among green vegetables that grow well in the area. our focus on feeding humans? themselves. There is no quality control on One of the three pillars of our organization is Tutwiler: This is another area where there these seeds, which can be a problem. Some working on nutrition. are a lot of changes that are needed in our farmers are using seeds [with] 200 or 300 way of thinking. One strand of thinking states year old technology and we're never going that we should increase food production on to get the yields increased in those countries as few acres as we can and leave the rest for unless we can bring in modern and improved wild protected areas. The conservation com- varieties. We need to bring in varieties that munity is beginning to realize that simply will help produce better yields. having protected lands that are left “pristine” Regarding nutrient deficiencies: As we and leaving agriculture aside is not a long- have been breeding more for shelf life and term solution to a more sustainable world. appearances of our fruit and vegetable We need to have a more integrated approach crops, we start losing nutrients. I think we as we think about how to protect our wildlife need to begin to think how we can reintro- diversity and so-called managed diversity. duce better nutrition into some of the crops we're eating. Q: What, in your opinion, would be there- sulting matrix if we stepped away from subsi- Q: Would you comment a little bit on the farm dized agriculture in the U.S. entirely? bill recently passed and impacts on the things Q: What are some of the global macro political Tutwiler: It’s hard to identify a single country you would like to see happen in the world? factors that are relevant to yo ur success? For in the world that doesn’t provide some Tutwiler: One of the reasons I moved to example, which countries have been support- degree of support to its farmers, so I think it’s Rome is because I didn’t want to work on ive and which haven’t and why? not a matter of whether or not to support; another U.S. farm bill. One of the rationales Tutwiler: The biggest challenge is the contin- it’s a matter of how and what. Look at the behind the 1996 farm bill that I worked on ued prevalence of the mathematical calcula- food pyramid and what we should eat and put in place direct payments. It gave direct tion that higher productivity equals higher look at where the money is going and it is a payments to farmers, but asked nothing in calories equals less hunger, and therefore we complete inverte d pyramid. We are not sup- return. In Europe they have payments, but need to be investing our resources into these porting research in fruits and vegetables, for in return farmers have to meet standards of few staple crops. We can’t just talk about yield example, or improved food safety in those environmental compliance and biodiversity. in individual crops in one year or the next year. areas. It is not a question of “how much,” but I worry a lot about the crop insurance poli- We need to talk about the yield and the pro- “the what and the how,” and the impact on cies. Farmers could begin to plant crops in ductivity of the whole farming system over a consumers. We need to think about starting an environment for which they are not well period of decades and we need to also be to produce nutritious calories. suited, but the farmers know that they will thinking about, “what is the environmental get a crop insurance payout if the crop fails. and nutritional impact of the crop?”

4 | CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS Africa’s Next Harvest: Technological Leapfrogging and Sustainable Agriculture

Calestous Juma

hat will it take for African countries to really effec- to the growth of the economy, and African leaders must tively address their agricultural challenges?” embrace this notion, he said. The development of infrastruc- “WCalestous Juma’s response to this question he ture may be central to this process. posed at the start of his talk asserts that in order for food to According to Juma, the development of infrastructure in grow, the economies of Africa must grow, and it is the respon- Africa is mired in the bureaucracy created by its ministries. This sibility of African leadership to attend to this growth. often makes it impossible to determine which ministry should As the title of his talk suggests, Africa must take advan- shoulder the responsibility of design and implementation. tage of technological advances by “leapfrogging” the stages Juma suggested that it has become necessary to circum- required of the developed world up to now and to simply vent this system, and, in speaking about his book, The New “plug in” to current and future advances in agriculture, tech- Harvest, he said, “to advance or modernize agriculture takes nology, and infrastructure. more than just the functions of the ministry of agriculture.” Africa is poised on the edge of a “new harvest” which, if He lays the responsibility in the hands of the presidents. He technologies are implemented efficiently and purposefully, contends that it is the presidents who are central to the could catapult the continent into position as a leader of sus- growth of Africa’s economy. tainable agricultural practices. Juma cited a number of meetings of With this in mind, Juma suggested “It’s not called the African leadership, most notably the ways to grow African economies; princi- World Economic Forum (WEF) in Decem- pally, that it is imperative to move away agriculture for ber 2012 and the African Union (AU) Sum- from the notion that food security is the mit of 2014, which shifted the focus of only issue. He said, “There needs to be a nothing,” he said. African agricultural sustainability from an leap in the way we think about agriculture issue of food security to one of economic and food production.” “It’s called development. The WEF resulted in the Using statistics to qualify his perspec- agriculture, commitment of $3.5 billion to African agri- tive, Juma showed that the bulk of the pop- culture. The AU declared 2014 “the year of ulation of Africa is rural. Roughly 70 percent because it is a agriculture and food security” with the of its working population is entrenched in theme of its January 2014 conference agricultural production, and in most coun- culture, it is titled, “Transforming Africa’s Agriculture: tries in Africa, upwards of 30 percent of the Harnessing Opportunities for Inclusive GDP is a result of agricultural production. a way of life.” Growth and Sustainable Development.” Food production in Africa is already Juma said there could be a concurrent central to its economic development; production is not the shift from traditional agricultural practices to the use of cut- issue. Rather, it is the perception of agriculture and its role in ting edge technologies, even as this change in paradigm con- the economy that must be re-examined. tinues and becomes more firmly rooted. “It’s not called agriculture for nothing,” he said. “It’s called “Where are the sources of possibilities for technological agriculture, because it is a culture, it is a way of life.” The leapfrogging going to come from?” he asked, and then pro- development of agriculture on the African continent is central ceeded to answer his own question: “One obvious area is

CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS | 5 Calestous Juma

Juma clearly believes that Africa’s use of technology, including nanotechnology, the use of drones, the develop- ment of polymers to create waterproof roads and absorbent crops, as well as the use of sustainable and renewable energy resources and aquaculture, could catapult the continent into a position of economic viability and sustainability. The most important step in making this objective a reality is to secure public policy that supports it. In conclusion, Juma said infrastructure, specifically roads and electricity, must be prioritized. There are a number of nations which have allocated resources to these ends, and he this notion of exponential technological growth, …where said the military, already stocked with the equipment, man- present generations are inheriting much larger quantities of power, and some of the best engineers in Africa, could build scientific and technological knowledge compared to their road networks quickly and efficiently. predecessors.” Education systems must also be attended to, he said. Juma then whisked the audience through a brief and Improvements in education will not only train scientists and entertaining history of the cell phone. Once cumbersome engineers, but could also be utilized to create an educated and rare, cell phones, and more recently smartphones, have agricultural community with knowledge in crop manage- become so ubiquitous that many people in Africa were able ment, diversification, waste management, and conservation. to leapfrog this technological process and gain access to the Finally, he said, regional integration is critical, as knowledge same technology that many developed parts of the world and information is viewed as a shared commodity. had to gain through an evolutionary process. In short, Juma asserts that the transformation i n Africa’s Juma’s use of maps detailing the prevalence of fiber optic agricultural, and thus economic systems, must be knowledge cables provided a clear visual that demonstrated how African intensive. Central to this strategy is building a leadership leaders can quickly and purposefully impact the connectivity with backgrounds in science and engineering. Agricultural of an entire continent. In 2009, one fiber optic cable provided diplomacy will become a central tool of African govern- telecommunications to Africa’s population. By 2014, $4 billion ments. As agricultural development becomes a central were invested in undersea cables. The governments of many theme and the economy responds, many of the struggles that of Africa’s nations were beginning to recognize the value of African nations have faced as a result of economic isolation connectivity. Furthermore, the value of smartphone technol- may be alleviated and Africa’s next harvest will bring eco- ogy to farmers is immeasurable, giving them instant access nomic prosperity to all corners of the continent. to weather and crop conditions, educational resources and
Reported by Judith Masseur communication for distribution and marketing. Juma also addressed the evolution of genomics. In its in- fancy, the Genome Project committed $100 million and 13 years to mapping the human genome. A genome can now be mapped in two hours for about $1,000. With this relatively in- expensive and available technology, small-scale farmers, with the support of the leadership within several African countries, could apply this technology to crops and gain in- formation about how those crops can be modified and adapted to changing soil and weather conditions. The use of genetic modifications and crop diversification, Juma said, could give both small-scale farmers and the larger economy the ability to transform agriculture from a subsistence based model into the source of economic growth for entire villages, regions and nations.

CALESTOUS JUMA is Professor of the Practice of International Development and Director of the Science, Technology, and Glob- alization Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. He holds a doctorate in science and technology policy studies and has written widely on science, technology, and environment. Juma serves on the boards of several international bodies and is editor of the International Journal of Technology and Globalisa- tion and the International Journal of Biotechnology. His latest book, The New Harvest: Agricultural Innovation in Africa, was pub- lished by Oxford University Press in 2011.

6 | CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS Overheated: The Human Cost of Climate Change Andrew Guzman

wo degrees Celsius is a big deal,” said Andrew Guzman, Lauca River. But the present generation of Uru Chipaya Professor of Law at the University of Californiaʼs appear to be the last generation who will be able to live on “TBerkeley Law School and author of Overheated: The the Lauca, because the volume and flow of the river are not Human Cost of Climate Change. Two degrees Celsius. By the enough to sustain them. end of the 21st Century, life-altering changes will be effected Thus, Guzman said, the Uru Chipaya will have to move— by that conservative estimate of the increase in global tem- and they will not move the way people changing jobs move. perature, unless the international community can conceive They will have to leave their ancestral homes, and almost and implement solutions to planetary warming. inevitably, they will move to Bolivian cities, where they will Professor Guzman opened his Saturday morning remarks try to eke out a living in an environment totally alien to them. by asserting that food and water are intimately intertwined Many, if not most, of the Uru Chipaya will not survive this with law and climate change, and that water will be dispro- change. The Uru Chipaya constitute 2,000 of the 300 million portionately affected. If you want to change the views of who will die from the inadequacy of water supplies resulting policy makers, he said, “it is essential to talk about people: from climate change. not polar bears, not polar ice caps—people. I am here to per- Pulling up higher from the Lauca River to the continent of suade you today that climate change is a big deal. It will South America makes the scale of the problem clearer, exact from us staggering human costs on a scale never con- Guzman said. The three largest Bolivian cities depend on fronted in history.” Andean glaciers for water As a two-degree temperature Based on conservative estimates, Guzman asserted, a increase causes those glaciers to melt, 10 million Bolivians two-degree increase in global temperatures will cause hun- will be affected by the consequent decrease in the amount of dreds of millions of people to die and will cause harm to bil- water available during South Americaʼs dry season. Peru, lions. He then proceeded to analyze the basis for the scientific Ecuador, and Chile are in precisely the same situational community’s estimate of lives lost and their measures of dependency, Guzman told the audience. The people in those human harm. four countries who are at risk of death from depleted water Let’s start with the melting of mountain glaciers, also supplies number approximately 71 million. known as snow packs, said Guzman, and examine the human The numbers mounted and moved closer to home. response to these glaciers melting. Human communities California, Guzman said, gets 35 percent of its water supply need water, not just over the course of a year, but every day. from the Sierra snowpack. That snowpack is shrinking—25– People historically have settled near rivers, often near rivers that are fed directly by mountain glaciers. That’s no surprise, ANDREW GUZMAN is the author of the widely acclaimed book he said. Mountain glaciers function as water storage devices. Overheated: The Human Cost of Climate Change (Oxford University Failure of those natural water storage devices causes prob- Press, 2013). He is Professor of Law and Director of the Advanced lems. Make no mistake about it, Guzman said, these devices Law degree programs at the University of California’s Berkeley are failing, and that failure constitutes the single greatest Law School. He is also a member of the Institute for Transnational threat to the worldʼs water supply. Arbitration’s Academic Council and is on the boards of several Take Bolivia as an example. In Bolivia, for 4,000 years, an academic journals. He has been a visiting professor at a number indigenous people called the Uru Chipaya have made their of universities, including Harvard Law School, University of homes next to, and relied on, the same source of water: the Hamburg and the National Law School in Bangalore, India.

CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS | 7 Andrew Guzman

40 percent by mid-century, scientists estimate. Rising global refugees, but because of the sheer weight of their numbers temperatures cause the snow pack to melt earlier in the year, (estimates suggest that one out of every 33 people on the bringing more water than needed to California during its wet planet will be displaced), the international community will be season and bringing less than needed in its dry season. unable to absorb them. They will resort to life in refugee Southern California depends on the water collected from the camps, but unlike civil wars or natural disasters, climate Sierras to survive. Without that water supply, the number of change is permanent. The people driven into these camps lives at risk from inadequate water rises an additional 109 will find themselves doomed to lifetimes of instability, million. dependency, violence, and squalor. The estimates continued—all conservative because, as Suffering will be a function of water-related political ten- Guzman observed, the credibility of climate change scientists sion, Guzman noted, pointing to Pakistani-Indian relations cannot survive hyperbole. Populations in Asia (“where the as an example. Eighty percent of the Indus River is glacier- people are,” said Guzman) who depend on glacier-fed rivers fed, with 30-40 percent of that glacial “storage device” re- like the Indus, the Yangtze, and the Yellow River, number in duced by the end of this century. the hundreds of millions. The death tolls that would result The Indus flows through India on its way to Pakistan. from glacial shrinkage and disappearance match the number India and Pakistan have fought four wars since 1947. Their of people who currently depend on those rivers for their lives. relationship is, at best, hostile. Guzman asked audience mem- Because human beings are bad at pro- bers to imagine a scenario in which a cessing numbers, said Guzman, it is help- nuclear Pakistan has less water than does ful to think in terms of proportion and per- “I am here to India, when a nuclear India controls Pak- centage. One out of every two people lives persuade you istanʼs water supply. where a glacier is the source of the com- Similar potential scenarios exist in a munity’s water supply. One out of every today that nuclear Israel, and in African nations like two people lives where their water supply climate change Nigeria where existing stress on water and is stressed. That means , he said, that agri- food will be ratcheted up by the damage culture is stressed, affecting human nutri- is a big deal.” caused by climate change. In sum, Guzman tion. Industry and manufacturing are said, the evidence shows us that climate stressed, affecting wealth locally and internationally. change is setting the human race on a course that will result Why does that matter? It matters because eventually, cli- in massive suffering, and the risks of that suffering grow ex- mate change-driven stress on water supplies will cause peo- ponentially with every degree increase in temperature. ple’s quality of life to decline sharply. The global wealthy He closed his talk by suggesting we can frame climate will complain about inconveniences and have to accept a change in two ways: as big trouble, or as a challenge that lesser quality of life than that to which they are accustomed. we can meet and then celebrate mastering. The payoff for The global middle class will have to make difficult budget success, he said, will be huge. Hundreds of millions of lives choices among health care, shelter, and food. The poor, how- will be saved with billions of lives improved. ever, because they have nothing to trade, will starve. Guzman In response to audience questions, Guzman predicted said this shows how water directly affects our international that technology—desalinization technology, for example— well-being. must be part of the solution to climate change. He is opti- It is not a big leap, then, to understand that when seas rise mistic that this generation will meet their great challenge as from melting ice packs, millions of people will be displaced generations in the past have met and overcome theirs. in coastal nations like Bangladesh. They will become
Reported by Kathryn King

8 | CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS New Solutions for a Changing Ocean

Andreas Merkl

ndreas Merkl opened his talk with the question, “What “We have already seen some real ups and downs, some does it mean to be an ocean advocate today when we uncertainty in the water,” Merkl said, referencing a slide Aknow that the number one and number two threats showing California salmon. “Ten years ago we had a bumper to the ocean are global warming and overpopulation?” crop. Then the next year it all disappeared. Salmon popula- The big, big word here is “change.” Our ocean is funda- tions are fluctuating wildly. Is it because their food has dis- mentally changing, he said. We are moving from an environ- appeared? Is it because of subtle changes in currents? There ment of risk to one of uncertainty. Risk can be managed: is no historical precedent. Are they wiped out? No. Will they Sometimes we win and sometimes we lose, but we know the come back? Yes, sometimes for a few years, but there is odds. With uncertainty comes danger, but also opportunity. greater uncertai nty.” He said we are not going to solve the problem by being fish- Merkl then began to discuss haddock in the Gulf of Maine. eries managers or oceanographers. We need to bring in a The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration whole new set of expertise. This uncertainty is driven by all (NOAA) scientists did a stock assessment in 2012 and deter- kinds of things. First of all, the chemistry is changing. Acidity mined the maximum sustainable yield (how many fish can is increasing, we are overfishing, heat is a factor and “we are be taken out of the sea). They told the fisherman they could pushing serous pol lution into the ocean.” catch 15 percent of the stock assessment total. In 2013 they The oyster industry in British Columbia was the first to instead caught only 4 percent. “What happened? Did they go face an existential threat, and that came from ocean acidifi- south? Did they go north? Did the food disappear?” Merkl cation. The oyster fry [larva] were dying. It was due to the ris- said. “We have a very good idea that the water is getting ing acidity of seawater. As CO2 increases in the atmosphere warmer. Stocks are shifting. There is an unmistakable trend the acidity of the ocean increases. of most stocks going north.” Acidity is strange. There are winners and losers. It favors Many of the smaller species, like anchovies, are shifting some species but not others. Pteropods, pea-size d sea snails, northward. Such forage fish are moving faster than their commonly known as “sea butterflies,” which live in the water predator fish. “Is that necessarily bad? We don’t know. The column and use two “wings” to swim are the favorite food of prey will be eaten somewhere else. Fishermen will tell you young salmon. They are increasingly threatened by ocean that when one stock is depleted, another will take its place. acidification. More carbon dioxide increases the water’s acid- The ocean is an incredibly productive machine,” Merkl said. ity and decreases its pH, making it harder for organisms like His talk suggested that climate change is forcing our pteropods to create healthy calcium carbonate shells. hand to manage the pyramid of fishery biomass—from “slime “At a certain point it all goes south,” Merkl said. We are to prime”—as a system. He said we can’t go on managing a now at 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmos- single species at a time. phere. Systematic under-saturation of aragonite [a naturally occurring carbonate ocean mineral] occurs at 600–650 parts ANDREAS MERKL is the President and CEO of Ocean Conser- per million of carbon dioxide, he said, adding, “That is pretty vancy, which educates and empowers citizens to take action on much a straight line of progression from where we are now behalf of the ocean. Prior to taking the helm at Ocean Conser- and will happen unless we do something very significant. vancy, Merkl served as principal at California Environmental As- Are all the creature s going to die? No. What it does is makes sociates, a San Francisco-based think tank and consultancy that things harder.” Merkl said the carbon dioxide increase puts works on the management of the natural resource commons. a “metabolic tax” on animals as they spend all their energy Previously, Merkl was a founding member of McKinsey & Com- on building shells. The ability to reproduce is therefore dimin- pany’s Environmental Practice and served as Vice President and ished. Half of marine life has some sort of a shell and they de- co-founder of the CH2M HILL Strategy Group, providing envi- pend on aragonite for growth. ronmental management consulting services worldwide.

CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS | 9 Andreas Merkl

“Maybe with a few really well administered metrics we precise, somewhere around 10 million tons of plastic goes per could learn how to manage an ocean system in a much better year,” he said, adding there are five gyres in the ocean that way than we are currently doing it, while being much simpler send ocean debris great distances to very remote locations. at the same time,” he said. “That gives He and a team of researchers found me hope, and we have the technology.” that 80 percent of the trash they found Merkl then described how economic “What we are on a beach in Alaska came from Asia. and ecological interests intersect in the seeing in the Merkl noted the damage to sea life this developing world. In the Philippines, pollution causes, including the killing of some 3,662 trawlers catch half of the ocean is clear seabirds. thr ee million tons of 40 different species signs of trouble, Also, 10 million tons of plastic going of fish and 465,000 small boats catch the into the ocean every year adds up to 300 other half. He said the catch per unit of new levels of million tons total and “we can find only effort for the small boats there has gone uncertainty. But less than one percent of it,” he said. “So, down by 92 percent in the last fifteen where is it? We have a hunch that the years. The introduction of the larger the ocean is also rest of it is inside the biota, it’s inside the trawlers has been catastrophic for the an unbelievably animals.” It goes into the food chain. small boats. “You can’t design your way out of this. It is a classic case of a commodity resilient system.” You can’t recycle your way out of this. impacted by overcapacity, like an under- There’s only way to stop this, which is to performing coal mine, he said. Efforts by NGOs to fix the prob- stop the leakage,” Merkl said. “This is going to be a big collab- lem have not worked. Merkl sees it as a development problem. orative effort that we’re going to have to get into. He proposed that the solution is to get fishing fleets to self- “What we are seeing in the ocean is clear signs of trou- manage, to get the underperformers out of fishing and recover ble, new levels of uncertainty, but the ocean is also an unbe- the fish stocks. He said it is one situation where “economic lievably resilient system. We have increasingly the tools to interests and ecological interests are completely aligned. Your manage such a system in all of its complexity. I think the most profitable fishery is one that is managed sustainably.” most fundamental question of it all is: Are our tools of man- Merkl next tackled a topic not directly related to food but aging uncertainty growing at the same rate as the rate at a definite factor in the food supply, the North Pacific Gyre. which we are introducing that uncertainty into the systems?” “That is where all the trash goes. The gyres are where, to be
Reported by Dave Jackson

Agricultural Solutions for Global Food Security, a Multi-Systems Approach Kathleen Merrigan, Jim Harkness, David Gustafson Opportunities for Big Climate Solutions from Small-scale Production KATHLEEN MERRIGAN, former Undersecretary of Agriculture, started Saturday’s panel discussion with a solu- tions approach to climate change. She began by urging the audience to go to the US Department of Agriculture web- site and look up the Know Your Farmer, Know Your Food Compass. Merrigan said it is a great tool to learn about the USDA and private resources to help peo- ple in local agricultural communities. “Livestock is a big area when you talk about climate change,” Merrigan said. As the world becomes wealthier, it

10 | CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS Kathleen Merrigan, Jim Harkness, David Gustafson

KATHLEEN MERRIGAN is a former Deputy Secretary of the US Department of ing. In order to feed the livestock to Agriculture where she oversaw its daily operations and also served on the Presi- meet this rate of consumption, they im- dent’s Management Council, working to improve accountability and performance port over 50 percent of the world’s soy- throughout the federal government. Merrigan managed the USDA’s “Know Your bean production. Farmer, Know Your Food” initiative, highlighting the critical connection between The second lesson Harkness takes farmers and consumers and supporting local and regional food systems that in- from his China experience relates an an- crease economic opportunity in rural America. Prior to her government work, cient Chinese practice called ever-nor- she was Director of the Agriculture, Food and Environment graduate program at mal granaries. The government bought Tufts University’s Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy. grain from the farmers in years of sur- plus, keeping it in government granaries is projected there will be a 70 percent applications to make our farms more until a period of famine, when it was growth in livestock product consump- economically viable, to be more sustain- sold to the people at a fixed price. tion. “So much for meatless Monday, able, and to help with climate change. huh? We just know that’s true, because Agroforestry, says Merrigan, stores “When we’re as the world becomes wealthier, more more carbon deeper in the soil. developed, people start eating more Finally, Merrigan encourages a talking about livestock products.” “panic for organic.” She said, “I really feeding the planet Even as steps should be taken to believe that organic agriculture has pio- reverse this trend, this is not the time to neered some of the most important and the impacts of decouple livestock from agriculture, she practices that are sustainable and will agriculture, diet said. She applauded two livestock help with climate change.” Proven prac- related agriculture efforts. One is the tices such as crop rotation, cover crops, and consumption “more grass, less gas” movement and the use of perennials and carbon sequestra- really trump second, the “power to poop” movement. tion all represent opportunities to She cited studies in which dairy cat- address the concerns over climate population.” tle fed with grass rather than grain emit- change and population growth. ted 12 percent less methane gas. And Harkness said Henry Wallace, Secre- given that 95 percent of dairy farms in What Can We Learn from tary of Agriculture during the heart of this country have fewer than 500 cows, China About Feeding the the depression in 1932, instituted an if every one of these farms went to American version of the ever-normal grass feed, the resulting emissions World granaries and ushered in the most pros- decrease would be the equivalent of JIMHARKNESS, Senior Adviser on perous period for American farmers ever. removing a half a million vehicles from China, Institute for Agriculture and “By the 1980s, however, Americans our roads. Another initiative is the move Trade Policy, lived in China for 16 years. had forgotten this Chinese lesson,” he to cap manure pits to produce methane He discussed three lessons from his said. Following the 1996 farm bill, effi- gas for energy. Merrigan said that while China experience applicable to food cient markets economists dismantled this approach remains relatively expen- security challenges facing the world. this system in the U.S and urged other sive for the small farmer, it will play a “When we’re talking about feeding countries to do the same, contending role in the future. the planet and the impacts of agricul- that the long-run costs of such price ture, diet, and consumption really trump controls were greater than a free and population,” Harkness said. As the pop- open market. “As the world ulation becomes wealthier, processed The problem with abandoning this becomes wealthier, food, meat, and fried foods become long-term average view, Harkness said, more popular. He said China consumes is that food cost spikes affect con- more developed, more pork per capita than does Amer- sumers in the short term. In the 2007- people start eating ica, more meat of all types per capita 2008 world food crisis, open market than does Japan. And Japan’s per practices left poor countries competing more livestock capita income is eight times greater with rich countries and they could not products.” than China’s. Harkness says this is un- afford to pay the higher prices. Further, sustainable and unhealthy and out of some food producing countries banned proportion to China’s economic well-be- exports as they did not have enough to Agroforestry, putting “the right tree in the right place for the right purpose” JIM HARKNESS is the Senior Advisor on China and former President of the Institute on farms, is another effort Merrigan for Agriculture and Trade Policy, an NGO that works locally and globally to ensure fair says we should applaud. Less than one and sustainable food, farm and trade systems. He previously served as President of percent of the land suitable for agro- IATP, as Executive Director of the World Wildlife Fund in China, and as the Environment forestry is currently being utilized that and Development Program Director for the Ford Foundation. He has written and way. Alley cropping, forest farming, spoken frequently on China and sustainable development and has served as an advisor wind breaks and “Silvopasture” are to the World Bank and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS | 11 Kathleen Merrigan, Jim Harkness, David Gustafson

feed their own people. Harkness said yields from these small farms have kept X-Farming: Coming to a the result was 100 million extra hungry pace with population growth for the people. past four decades. Planet Near You China National Grain Corporation’s Agriculture revenue came first and DAVID GUSTAFSON, Senior Sci- practice of building up reserves when fueled China’s manufacturing boom. ence Fellow, Monsanto Company, gave prices were low allowed China to be a During the 1980s and 1990s, rural a talk on farming in an era of accelerat- net exporter even though their demand income grew faster than did urban ing demand and extreme weather. was growing faster. income. There was more food, better “If we were somehow to magically The concept of food reserves is health, and widely spread prosperity. stop all emissions of greenhouse gases, being revived in many parts of the Harkness said that if we are looking we still have another three degrees world, even though the practice is sub- for the key policies and principals that Fahrenheit or so global warming built ject to corruption, political manipula- led to this positive outcome, we could into the system,” Gustafson said. tion, bad management, and drives consider these: Smart investment in He has been involved in a US production to a narrow band of com- public good—roads, communication, National Climate Assessment that con- modities. Harkness said that having a agricultural extension, agricultural re- firms climate change is taking place, reserve is a lot less costly than not hav- search, and irrigation; Land for the indi- particularly drought. One of the gradual ing one when needed. vidual household to spur investment in effects of these changes has been the His third lesson for audience mem- increased productivity; Price incentives; northward movement of planting zones bers was that agriculture is a driver for Gradual phasing out of central planning and the diseases associated with these economic development. “Look at what and collective assets; and Prevention of zones. In some cases, zones have China has achieved, not just in feeding large collection of land or capital. moved as much as 200 miles over the its people, but improving its living stan- Harkness said that the combination past 22 years. dards,” Harkness said, adding that of these policies and principles created It is not only temperature change, China feeds 20 percent of the world’s an enabling environment. Government but also an increase in weeds, insects, population on nine percent of the intervened to address the inequalities of disease, and deterioration of soil health world’s arable land. It does so not with political, household, and marketplace that is happening. Gustafson is concen- a heavily industrialized model, but from power, access to product resources, trating on soil, as this is an area where 200 million farms an acre in size. Crop markets, and information. resilience to the negative effects of

Q&A ditional organic systems in some cases, and ing opportunity open, rather than foreclosing Q: Climate Change: How and why did it be- the monopolistic elements in some of the prac- it through the concentration of ownership, come politicized in this country? tices …Could you comment on those corporate whether it’s of companies or information. Gustafson: I think it was two things, person- elements that seem to limit and exploit and ally. I think there was a bit of overreach in the prevent the more open processes? Q: Could you elaborate on and/or define ‘bet- early days. There was a lot of frustration on Gustafson: Without patents, which are ter seeds’? Have there been advances in the the part of some of the individual scientists described in our Constitution here, we really nutritional value of higher yield corn? [in the 1980s] who were frustrated that they don’t have an incentive for innovation. … Can Gustafson: I believe that the nutritional con- weren’t getting any traction. I do think it had you have hybrid maize systems coexisting tent of corn grain hasn’t changed all that the potential for causing some doubt as to with those who choose to plant open polli- much in recent years. It’s important for not motives. I also think it did become a bit of a nated varieties? …I really do believe there is just the farmer, but also their customer that political issue early on. plenty of room for organic and other meth- the grain would still have all the properties Harkness: Let’s think for a minute who ods of production, but I also do believe that that are desired by their customers. When I might benefit from society not taking strong we ought to be mainta ining a choice. use the term “better seed,” I am generally steps to address climate change. For me, it’s Merrigan: It’s really fast-moving and difficult speaking about seed that is higher yielding, not a complicated question. I think the science and I think our government hasn’t better disease-resistant, perhaps heat-toler- amount of money the fossil fuel industry has always calibrated their patent decisions well. ant, drought-tolerant, all the other traits that put into disinformation and denial, that’s It really takes a high degree of training to be we’re trying to add to our seeds through our well documented. able to make the right decisions. breeding programs. Merrigan: If you’re 25 or younger, whether Harkness: [remarking on consolidation of Merrigan: I attended a food tasting event that or not this issue is politicized, you’re just pork industry in China] They are succeeding brought together some of the world’s great- scared. We have a responsibility to talk about not because they are offering a better prod- est chefs and plant breeders. I saw this Cor- this in a way that is very cognizant of the anx- uct, but because they’ve bought out their nell plant breeder say, “I was so excited when iety that young people have when we face cli- competition. I think that it’s concerns of that Dan Barber [a chef] asked me to breed some- mate change. nature, about choice, that motivate questions thing for taste, because in my whole career I have about big data and who owns seeds and I’ve only been asked to breed for yield, for Q: Can you address Monsanto’s corporate these kinds of things…A lot of the history of resistance, for uniformity; and now I’m being practices of patenting traditional seeds, tra- America’s economy has also been about keep- asked to breed for taste and for nutrition.”

12 | CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS Kathleen Merrigan, Jim Harkness, David Gustafson

near future equal amounts of arable cover crops and farmer uses of informa- “If we were to land will be coming into production. tion technology and big data will all The availability of water will be a criti- play a role. somehow cal factor for these new arable lands to Gustafson said that at Monsanto magically stop all be productive. they are seeing yields of 140 bushels per Gustafson said the use of better acre grow to 240 bushels per acre using emissions of seeds and a small amount of mecha- a field-strip approach. And soon, farm- greenhouse gases, nization could yield as much as 335 mil- ers wil l be able to control which hybrid lion more tons of grain. This is an seed, the amount of each seed, as well we still have amount more than China currently pro- how much nutrient to apply within each another three duces. Gustafson also pointed to a square meter of a field. study in which the use of better seeds Gustafson said a recent acquisition degrees Fahrenheit and a small amount of mechanization by Monsanto will allow it to help farm- or so of global resulted in greater eco-effi ciency. ers use big data to manage their activity Looking forward, Gustafson said based on short term weather predic- warming built into that an “all the above” approach will tions. the system.” have to take place to meet the demands
Reported by Kathrin Seitz and of increased population and climate Richard Anderson change. Seed advances, biotechnology, increased temperature can be built. Gustafson said practices that increase DAVID GUSTAFSON is a Senior Science Fellow at Monsanto Company, where he serves the amount of water retained in the soil, as the regulatory lead for Water Quality and Agricultural Sustainability. His research on such as incorporating more organic agriculture-related environmental challenges has spanned nearly 30 years. In 2007, he matter in the soil and cover crops, will served as an inaugural member and lead for the Monsanto Fellows Climate Change be more important going forward. Panel, which assessed the degree of scientific certainty in global climate modeling and Gustafson said that while some its likely impact on the world’s agriculture. He serves on various Monsanto teams ex- arable land will be coming out of crop amining new imperatives and constraints placed on agriculture by man-made global production, it is possible that in the warming, hypoxia, and other environmental challenges.

Q: Is there potential for large-scale produc- to engage in dialog with the company. They Q: What role does ethics and morality play in tion of biofuels to coexist with large-scale represent a lot of farmers in this country and all of this? production of food anytime in the next 50 to a lot of acreage, so to the extent that we are Gustafson: To me the biggest moral imper- 100 years? on a learning journey here as a community ative of all here is, in fact, the nutrition secu- Merrigan: Biofuels come in many forms. I talking about issues, I think it’s reall y impor- rity issue that’s being caused in part by think we as country have been stuck on the tant that we engage with them. climate change. I think it is tremendously ethanol model. But I think even the govern- Gustafson: I do think Monsanto has realized wrong for us to be consuming as much food ment at this point has moved off of a focus we have failed to enter into those dialogues, as we do in the developed world when there on ethanol to a different generation of bio- and we are entering those dialogues…inviting is so much of the planet that is suffering fuel crops. folks such as yourself one-on-one to come without. Gustafson: There are a number of different visit and tell us your views. I extend that invi- Merrigan: If there was a moral issue I want to biofuel crops being looked at. One of the tation out… I do think that there is plenty of raise [it’s] the role of women farmers in the reasons that corn ethanol happened here in room for both types of production and many world. Calestous said it just right. He said, the US is that there was a time in the late other types of production to thrive and sur- “What’s the answer? It’s commencement.” 1990s where it was actually more cost- vive an d learn from each other. It’s treatment of women, getting young effective for a farmer to burn corn grain for Harkness: Small farmers of all different kinds women educated in the developing world. its heat value than to burn diesel…But there are already feeding the world by and large, Harkness: I think there’s a challenge in think- are some benefits that aren’t thought about especially since so much of what’s planted on ing about ethics and economic behavior, too much. very large farms is fed to animals or is turned because the shareholders aren’t that inter- into industrial products of different kinds. ested in ethics; they’re interested in share- Q: What do panelists think about whether Farmers respond to incentives, and right now holder value. In some ways, I think that rather small-scale agro-ecological farming can feed the incentives in the marketplace say, “Do than questioning the ethics of corporations, the world in a sustainable way, and if it can, what you can to raise yields in the short it’s society’s job in a democracy to hold them why shouldn’t we be promoting those prac- term,” and that means chemical pesticides to societal standards and say, “You have to tices? and fertilizers. I think that some sort of tran- pursue profit within this set of constraints,” Merrigan: I have a lot of friends who work at sition to a more agro-ecological approach that ensure that it doesn’t threaten the well- Monsanto and I don’t think that we should globally would require a massive investment being of people in your own country or other just write off the whole company. We need in farmers and in technology. countries or the planet.

CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS | 13 International Food Security: The Limits of Global Governance

Robert Paarlberg

esponsibility for food security today, declared Wellesley like roads and power and education.” The 2011 G-20 Summit College Professor Robert Paarlberg, rests ultimately in in Cannes failed to produce agreement on any of host Rthe hands of governments of sovereign states. Not Nicholas Sarkozy’s three agenda items on food security. multilateral corporations, not intergovernmental organiza- Turning to the World Trade Organization (WTO), Paarl- tions, not international nongovernmental organizations, and berg explained that it has “limited teeth” and doesn’t make certainly not the politically powerless who “don’t have the the rules: “It’s nothing more than a meeting place where sep- political voice that they need. If they did, things would be arate national governments attempt to negotiate new agree- much better.” ments among themselves.” Since the WTO operates by Paarlberg, the author of Food Politics: What Everyone consensus, any government can block agreements, as Needs to Know, said: “It’s a reality that we can’t wish away, occurred during the organization’s Doha Round—“launched and it’s not an ideal situation for food security—particularly if in 2001 and adjourned without agreement in 2008.” you’re a citizen of North Korea or Zimbabwe or Syria.” Assessing organizations within the United Nations sys- “In the area of food and farming,” he acknowledged, “the tem, Paarlberg said that the Food and Agriculture Organiza- project of building global governance has not gone very far.” tion (FAO) unfortunately “is an organization that you can’t What exists today is “a contest between the international- count on to govern global food and farming systems.” At its level institutions and national-level institutions,” with the lat- 2009 World Food Summit, for instance, delegates read pre- ter retaining “exclusive sovereign jurisdiction over what goes pared speeches and ended up with a bland, unfunded, non- on within their boundaries.” binding resolution. “This is not the way serious politics takes Paarlberg reviewed recent international attempts to place,” he noted. establish global food security that essentially went nowhere. Paarlberg expressed higher regard for the UN World Food The G-8 Summit in 2012 at Camp David produced only “a Program (WFP), stating that it has had “a proven record for hastily choreographed pledge by private companies” to preventing famine in Africa and Pakistan.” But its hands are invest in agri cultural development projects in Africa—where, tied without local governmental cooperation, and “it has to in fact, “the greatest investment needs are for public goods, beg those governments for its resources.” For instance, the WFP was barred from delivery of food assistance to North ROBERT PAARLBERG, Adjunct Professor of Public Policy at Korea in the mid-1990s, resulting in “a terrible famine in Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, is an independent which more than a million North Koreans starved to death.” scholar and consultant specializing in global food and Even today, the Syrian government has blocked the WFP agricultural policy. He is the Betty Freyhof Johnson Professor of from “delivering relief to about 250,000 civilians in opposition- Political Science at Wellesley College and an Associate at controlled territory, and a serious food crisis is underway.” Harvard’s Weatherhead Center for International Affairs. He is Outsiders, he declared, “can’t prevent national governments the author of Starved for Scienc e: How Biotechnology is Being Kept from harming their own citizens.” Out of Africa (Harvard University Press) and Food Politics: What He next cited another international institution—actually a Everyone Needs to Know (Oxford University Press). network of research institutions chaired by the World Bank—

14 | CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS Robert Paarlberg the Consultative Group on International Agricultural neered seeds.” Monsanto, for instance, has “lost every battle” Research (CGAIR), which “has a record of success in introduc- with trying to introduce genetically engineered food crops in ing technologies that can help farmers in developing coun- developing countries—defeated by governments on the one tries.” But, he stressed, “there are limits. In order to get hand and nongovernmental organizations such as Oxfam, technology into the hands of farmers,” competent partners Greenpeace, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and La are needed at the local level. In agricultural research, problem Via Campesina on the other. solving requires “constant interactive relations with local “In food and agriculture,” said Paarlberg, “nongovernmen- farming communities.” These nations need extension serv- tal organizations are extremely important. They do a mar- ices, agricultural research facilities, and other means of dis- velous job of delivering services and training,” but they don’t seminating information and support. Without such have the resources to provide poor countries with critical institutions at the national level, “the international centers infrastructure—“rural roads, rural power, irrigation, agricul- find it extremely difficult to deliver benefits.” In Africa today, tural research, rule of law, property rights, land reform. These he continued, “these national-level institutions have been are things that must be done in the public sector. If national underfunded and underdeveloped.” In a continent where 60 governments don’t do them, they won’t happen.” percent of its citizens are farmers and herders, only 5 percent “So what is it,” asked Paarlberg, “in the so-called age of of the countries’ budgets are designated for agricultural globalization, that allows these antiquated institutions to development, and almost no funding goes to agricultural retain so much control in the food and farming sector?” research. Again, it’s “the rules of international law that give national As for multinational corporations with global reach, such governments exclusive sovereign jurisdiction to determine as Walmart, Archer Daniels Midland, Monsanto, McDonald’s, what crosses their borders, and exclusive options to tax and and Cargill, their efforts are typically stymied by national regulate what goes on inside their borders.” governments that erect high trade barriers, set their own reg- Yet, admitted Paarlberg, “despite this antiquated system ulatory systems, and use these rules to exercise power. of separate sovereign nation-states being in control, sub- “Arguments are often made that companies like these can stantial progress has been made in reducing the preva- control outcomes by monopolizing mar- lence of chronic under-nutrition in the kets or by influencing governments with developing world.” He screened an bribes, campaign contributions, or what- “In the area of FAO chart reflecting encouraging ever,” said Paarlberg. But he has not reductions in chronic under-nutrition found these arguments persuasive: food and farming, between the years 1990 and 1992 as “National governments are still for the project of well as between 2010 and 2012: In the most part in control.” For instance, Asia, it dropped from 24 to 14 percent; Walmart tried for a decade to get multi- building global in Africa, from 28 to 23 percent; and in brand stores into India, but the govern- governance Latin America and the Caribbean, from ment demanded that 30 percent of the 15 to 8 percent. By way of explanation food products be sourced from within has not gone for these promising results, Paarlberg India—a stipulation that no other corpo- very far.” said that democratic elections have ration had been required to meet. “So occurred in more and more countries, Walmart backed off and walked away.” and, “as democracy has spread, food On the topic of international grain trade, said Paarlberg, security has improved”—a corollary to economist Amartya there’s often criticism that “the big grain-trading companies Sen’s observation: “There has never been a famine in a monopolize world food markets. But only 10 percent of food democratic country.” supplies are ever traded internationally.“ These large multi- In conclusion, Paarlberg noted the irony that with a national corporations “don’t set the rules under which food decline in under-nutrition has come an increase in “over-nutri- crosses borders. If they did, there wouldn’t be the high barri- tion.” Although the United States is “the leader in excessive ers to international trade that exist today. These companies consumption, many others are following in our path, and we were desperate for the Doha Round to succeed so that the haven’t yet come up with an appropriate and achievable set high national barriers would go down,” but, said Paarlberg, of policy responses” to this obesity problem. “a lot of governments in the developing world have national Paarlberg fielded questions on trade treaties, on eco- self-sufficiency policies that block the aspirations of these nomic constraints from France in Francophone Africa, on trading companies to expand” agricultural commerce. Under China and India’s market-based economies, and then a final WTO guidelines, for instance, “India can, if it wants, impose one from a University of Maine student, who asked: “What 100 percent tariffs.” can we do? Where should we go from here?” Paarlberg On the subject of the power of companies that sell responded by urging attendees to pressure elected officials patented seeds, Paarlberg said, “Critics sometimes forget that to step up appropriations for America’s development assis- each government determines what kinds of intellectual prop- tance spending, which decreased in Africa 86 percent erty rights it’s willing to recognize.” In only a handful of coun- between 1985 and 2006 and has only slightly increased since tries is it even legal to register a patent on seeds. In Africa then. “Your representative in Congress,” he concluded, “is a today, noted Paarlberg, “only Sudan, Burkina Faso, and South good place to start.” Africa have made it legal for farmers to plant genetically engi-
Reported by Kathleen Brandes

CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS | 15 Growing the Local Farmers’ Markets: Future Trends

Gus Schumacher

ow do we build a healthy, sustainable food system through Maine’s re-establishment as a regional farming center. more immediately,” a system that encourages “We have the land, the water, and a growing interest among “Hhealthy eating while also ensuring that our food is the state’s young people,” he said. “Today, there are over 10,000 “grown, picked, processed, transported, and prepared by Eliot Colemans growing vegetables year-round in Maine.” people earning a livable wage?” In a With a slide depicting a 42-acre year- presentation to address this question, round tomato growing operation, Back- Gus Schumacher provided insight and a “Today, there are yard Tomatoes, in Madison, Maine, the few solutions. over 10,000 audience was asked to consider the cost After sharing a brief anecdote about of such an operation and why it works. the evolution of winter farming in Maine Eliot Colemans The answer is fuel, reinforcing the argu- developed by Eliot Colman, Schumacher growing ment for Maine to once more assume a identified several economic issues con- stronger agricultural role. Schumacher fronting the planet’s food systems, chiefly vegetables year said the facility in Madison was con- that we have a great deal of price volatil- round in Maine.” structed because “diesel prices affect ity related to the lack of food reserves. the feasibility of large scale, year-round Because of this, and because of an antic- growing operations. Today, Backyard ipated boom in the number of people earning between $2 Tomatoes produces 10 percent of the Northeast’s tomatoes.” and $10 a day, “nearly 650 million more people by 2025 will Shifting his attention to water, Schumacher spoke about have access to three things: An improved diet, largely consist- the more flexible approach many African farmers have when ing of more meat; cell phones; and diabetes.” In America alone, planting seeds. Water availability dictates the crops they’ll nearly 39 million more people in that $2-$10 range will be grow, and that system has been less taxing on the farmers living in mega-cities and will need healthy provisions. and the land. In the American Midwest, we were asked, Schumacher suggested New England’s food demands, “What will we do when the Ogallala Aquifer runs dry in 10- specifically those in the emerging mega-cities, could be met 15 years?” Consider the water shortages faced by the state of California. Wage inequality and outright unemployment GUS SCHUMACHER is Vice President of Policy at the Wholesome among migrant farm workers will add to what is already a Wave Foundation in Westport, Connecticut, an organization that politically charged issue. helps local farmers around the country supply healthy, sustain- On the consumer side of the equation, what types of ably grown produce at farmers’ markets to underserved neigh- fruits and vegetables will the next generation of farmers borhoods. Gus Schumacher served as Under Secretary of grow? The young people of today have “changed the way we Agriculture for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services at the US look at food. When I was young we would hang out with Department of Agriculture from 1997 to 2001, as well as Admin- Julia Child on PBS and that was it,” he said. “Today, the Food istrator of the Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Network is wildly popular with young people.” Service, and as Commissioner of Food and Agriculture for the Drawing on his experience at the Wholesome Wave Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Schumacher is a member of Foundation, Schumacher showed a photograph of a young the 21st Century Sustainable Agricultural Task Force of the woman selling Halal meat at a Maine Farmers Market to il- National Academy of Sciences and was recently honored with a lustrate how farmers need to adapt not only to soil and water James Beard Foundation Leadership Award. conditions, but to rapidly changing demographics and mar-

16 | CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS Gus Schumacher ket demands as well. Schumacher estimated that perhaps nity, through the Affordable Care Act, as we move to insure “as many as 25 million people are making a second stop at more of the uninsured? How can hospitals train their doctors farmers markets on the way home from the grocery store to to prescribe not just metformin for diabetes or Lipitor for cho- buy fresh produce. The demand will continue to grow.” lesterol, but a vegetable prescription?” On the topic of “How We Eat,” Schumacher observed, One solution can be found in Wholesome Wave’s Fruit “The global spread of obesity will be felt acutely in Maine as and Vegetable Prescription Pack, which provides daily serv- the costs associated with diabetes reach $1.2 billion over the ings of fresh produce to diabetics and the obese being next 20 years.” treated at eight hospitals as part of a pilot program. The “V- Compounding the issue, American children are on aver- Pack” has led to “a reduction in patient BMI [body mass age “exposed to 5,500 junk food impressions per year. So, index] and a positive shift in mood and behavior.” your children and your grandchildren are seeing enormous Concurrently, an increased number of V-Pack prescriptions, amount of advertising for junk food,” he said. To provide “Should also lead to an increase in fair wages for farmers as some background on how thoroughly the public health has that market expands.” deteriorated, Schumacher said we have to go back to 1939, Schumacher completed his talk by highlighting potential when Milo Perkins stated that the purpose of the recently in- goals for a healthy food system by the year 2020. Among a troduced Food Stamp Program was, “to improve farmer in- list of questions, he asked the audience, “By 2020 will all come as well as public health.” Americans on food stamps and schools have access to fair, Later, in 1964, President Lyndon Johnson amended the affordable, sustainable and healthy food? By 2020, will language of the bill to exclude soft drinks, luxury foods and 100,000 fruit and vegetable farmers selling at farmers’ mar- frozen foods. Today, “Food Stamps allow nearly anything but kets…become pharmacies…filling the prescriptions of Amer- tobacco and alcohol,” Schumacher said. “How did we let this ican doctors for millions of families with pre-diabetes or happen?” BMIs… at 10,000 farmers’ markets? And by 2020 will food no Concluding his presentation with a call to action, longer be a weapon?” Schumacher asked, “What is the role of the medical frater-
Reported by Dwight Blue

Guzman: I don’t think we should view the Final Panel Highlights problem as an effort to maximize efficiency. [The question is] are we doing it in a way The final hour and a half of the conference brought speakers back to the stage for a panel that ignores important costs, in particular, discussion, where they answered audience questions and summarized each of their top action future costs? The answer is yes...we’re really items for the attendees to take away from the event. Sunday’s panel, moderated by John very bad at having today’s humans make de- Piotti, included Jim Harkness, Robert Paarlberg, David Gustafson, Kathleen Merrigan, cisions that take into account tomorrow’s Fred Kirschenmann, Gus Schumacher, Calestous Juma and Andrew Guzman. humans. The problem isn’t that this is new; the problem is we’re now able to do it in a Q: What are your thoughts about Coca-Cola Schumacher: I was surprised at the Grocery way that really threatens future generations. promotion at the conference? Are there fun- Manufacturers Association when they attacked Harkness: One of the challenges is maxi- damental differences of opinion about Fred the Mexican president for the eight-peso tax mization vs. optimization. Agriculture and Kirschenmann’s earlier statement about how on sugary drinks. The more serious one is the food touch on so many different areas that our current system is designed around “max- encouragement by a number of governments are of social and environmental concern. imum efficiency for maximum short-term eco- in Latin America to begin to deal with obesity Paarlberg: I would agree the problem is too nomic return”? and the pushback by certain groups. much short-t erm thinking. I don’t think the

CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS | 17 Final Panel Highlights

problem is seeking efficiencies or high pro- conversations in a tone of understanding ductivity. Conventional agriculture in the about how people must feel if they’re on United States has prospered by reducing in- SNAP, and…how they’re being talked about put use per bushel of production. It’s some- in the press and by their politicians. times not appreciated that conventional Kirschenmann: One thing I think that may farming is making money today not just by be as important for us all to understand is boosting yields, but by making more precise that people in the food business have a lot applications of input and reducing costly in- of power. The reason people have so much terventions like tillage. power in food is...if you lose a food customer, Merrigan: I do want to embrace the notion you can’t just get your existing customers to of efficiency. Chellie [Pingree] sha red with eat more. us the story of lean finely textured beef Q: Could you tell us whether or not the new (“pink slime”). I…took a very unpopular po- farm bill continues the subsidy for ethanol, sition when things started to rock and roll in and whether that makes sense either from an the press and I said, “It’s safe to eat,” because economic point of view or an ethical point of it was safe to eat; it is safe to eat. Is it what I view? want to eat? Is it what I want my kids to eat? Merrigan: The 2014 farm bill continues in Is it appealing? No. But, it just shows how slightly different ways, support for commod- the industry has gotten so that it uses every ity crops, of which corn is one. The ethanol single bit of protein; it’s so efficient. And industry is getting the message that they need then I look at my guys in sustainable agricul- to become more competitive without gov- ture...and they’re only selling the best ernment support, if they’re going to continue. cuts...and there’s just a lot of loss there. So, Juma: One of the unintended consequences my challenge to everyone in the audience Q: We have missed the boat by not addressing of the ethanol boom in the US has been get- who cares about sustainability is to think population issues, specifically limits of growth ting African countries to realize the y can’t about efficiency and how that’s built into or overpopulation. continue to depend on food aid from the US any kind of system that we’re setting up. Guzman: There’s no disputing that Malthus anymore. got it right. The question is a matter of tim- Q: Help us understand empowering $750 bil- ing. We don’t know whether we’re at the lion worth of food expenditure, without even point where the geometric growth in popu- beginning the discussion on what one is allowed lation is outstripping the inevitably arith- to purchase with taxpayer funded assistance. metic ability to extract resources. We know that healthy economic growth leads to more stable or lower population growth. Gustafson: If you do have sustainable de- velopment in agricultural systems in the de- veloping world, many of those individuals are women farmers and by increasing their economic viability you tend to have results that lead to a slowing in population growth. Merrigan: One of the things we’re trying to If we have leaders at the national level in do in agricultural food aid is, rather than sub-Saharan Africa and otherwise that are sending our commodities to country X, [we] investing more in ag (sic) development, that try to then provide cash dollars to country X would likely result into the slowing of popu- to help build their own food system. USAID lation growth. and USDA are working together as part of Merrigan: There’s an assumption that people the “Feed the Future” initiative. who are poor, who are SNAP recipients, make demonstrably different diet choices than the Q: Most of the discussion is focused on agri- rest of the people. We have studies that show culture and less on water. Could you address that poor people are making the same bad the issue of water policy as it relates to sus- choices the rest of us are. Most SNAP recip- tainable agriculture and our shrinking water ients are children and disabled, and there are supply? Also, should Maine rethink our water a whole lot of people eligible for SNAP who resources as a source of income and support don’t take advantage of it. I hate anything since we are a water-rich state? that demonizes the SNAP program. How do Gustafson: I believe there ought to be we improve, how do we be innovative, how greater investment in infrastructure to retain do we get win-wins? We need to have the water, and reuse it on the farm when we

18 | CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS Final Panel Highlights

need it. In general, I do think we do need to food production. There are a number of ondly, is it possible to have a sustainable be investing in small-scale water infrastruc- things we have to do if we’re going to solve water supply in place of glacier melt? ture to hold water for farmers, in a way that this problem. Guzman: The sad reality is it’s never too isn’t really happening now. late, and that’s not a good thing. Climate Merrigan: Perenialism is something we don’t change is unlikely to be an extinction event think enough about, for healthy soils, eco- for our species, which means no matter how nomics, for water. With climate change here bad things get , we can make it worse. The we really need to think these things through. way climate change comes under control is Guzman: The forces at work to create water one of two ways. Either human beings find a crises are just bigger than human beings are way to limit their greenhouse gas emissions, capable to resist, as l ong as we’re pumping or we don’t. greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at rates anything like we’re doing now. There’s Q: What can all of us do to take the next step only one solution, and that is to bring climate from the learning of this weekend? change under control. Guzman: The United States can do one thing Merrigan: Certainly you need a governance Paarlberg: The best thing to do is something even more easily than give money for infra- system, if you are water-rich and you think the American political system finds it ex- structure or train engineers; and that is, let that people are going to be knocking at your tremely difficult to do, and that is to tax car- the poor people of the world sell their agri- door. But you have to be really careful. Gov- bon. An international agreement on carbon cultural products in this country, on fair ernment structures are really important, but taxes would solve the collective- action prob terms. I agree the answer is a carbon tax. The they have to be right, they have to be good, lem and give governments new revenues key players, the US, Europe, and China have and they’re not easy to construct. they could use to compensate losers, to in- to sit at a table, and they have to sit at a table Juma: There are countries that are thinking vest R&D in non-fossil fuel energy resources where most of the other countries in the about water in the way people thought about and to red uce taxes of other kinds. world are not present...no more than one or oil 70 years ago. Maybe have a look at the two more, and a deal has to be struck, and way Canadians are thinking about it. I think Q: With the decrease in hunger that you’ve has to be enforced. they have the intent to sell their water to a seen, could you speak to the point that inter- Juma: Being able to start early is really im- neighboring country. national family planning has a direct correla- portant. Early childhood education might tion to that? hold the key to really starting to build a new Q: Do you know of national or international Paarlberg: Population isn’t really a matter of ethic, a new sustainability ethic, even before programs, which are actually dealing with total numbers on the planet. I’m fully in support kids get to school. If we can get education CO2? How do we get rid of it? Is there a way of family assistance planning, and child and right from fairly early on, you have a much to get rid of it? What suggestions would you maternal health interventions that make family better chance of an uptake of new ideas and have? planning much easier, but for me, it’s first a technologies. As someone said, human be- human rights issue for women. Then it’s a child ings are very open to new ideas, so long as and maternal health issue. Then that only cre- they look just like the old ones. ates an opportunity that you have to exploit to make much larger investments in the health and the education of the children, so the next generation will aspire to smaller families.

Q: If we did most things right relative to carbon, is it even possible to stop or suffi- ciently retard the glacial melt, and sec-

Guzman: The scientists say, “We’re research- ing carbon capture.” It’s not the answer. We’re not close to being able to capture car- Schumacher: One is healthcare and two is bon on a scale that would matter. The re- technology. It is important for doctors to search is important but it’s not a solution in talk to their COOs at their hospitals and ba- the short term. sically get them to look at their community Kirschenmann: There isn’t one quick, easy benefit reporting to help them get reim- solution to solve this. We’ve got to change bursed and get the veggie prescription or “v- the system. We restore the biological health pack.” I think there is a need for technology. of soil, we restore our forests, and that does- In Kenya, you can use an iPhone or a smart- n’t necessarily mean we take them out of phone and transfer money. But if you’re a

CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS | 19 Final Panel Highlights

food stamp client or WIC client, using your biggest mega-trends that’s coming for sure. EBT systems, the technology simply is very I’d really like to say that we’d like to collabo- clunky. We can learn a lot from Kenya on rate and talk more with folks. how to use a smartphone. Paa rlberg: Buy a ticket, get on plane, fly to Kirschenmann: This next generation of any capital city in East or West Africa, leave young people always inspire me and they’ll your hotel, hire a sturdy vehicle, head up- inspire you as well. We’re going to be transi- country, get off the tarmac road, walk into a tioning out of an industrial economy into a farming community, and look around you “post neo-caloric economy.” So, we’re going and notice how many things are missing. to have to really think about not just keeping These people do not have any of the things the current system going, but what we need that farmers in the rest of the world have to do to transition to the system of the fu- used to escape poverty, to increase their pro- ture. The kind of management we need to ductivity, to allow their children to be well employ is adaptive management, not control fed. When you’ve seen it with your own eyes bon, I think Americans would want to get un- management. That’s an attitude I think we you’ll know where the deficits are and you’ll healthy food out of schools. The problem is, all need to internalize. find a way to help close those deficits. we have a broken democracy. One thing I Merrigan: 1) Farm to School Programs: Harkness: There’s been a lot of pessimism would recommend is, take your privilege as every community should have one. 2) We about population growth and climate and the an American citizen, and go help fix democ- get a lot of young people who are starting inevitability of things continuing to get worse. racy by getting the influence of money out of farming operations, but don’t necessarily One reason I disagree with the inevitability politics. I think we have to get into direct ne- have business training. So, if you’re from the of those things is that human communities gotiations, not multilateral ones, and the initial business community and you care about are not like the colonies of rats in those conversations will be like the one we had last these issues, find a young farmer and con- Malthusian experiments that all end up eating night. There is a huge chasm between our tribute your time. 3) Vote with your fork. each other. And the reason is that we can two historical narratives. But we have to keep Gustafson: I really want to mention this make choices as a society. And that’s called bringing people together to talk to prevent book again, The World We Made. Something democracy. I think Americans would want to war. The kind of exchange we had yesterday like half of food production will move to ur- help African countries develop the infrastruc- is far preferable to war. ban settings by 2020. That’s one of the ture, I think Americans would want to tax car-
Reported by Jeff Howland

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20 | CAMDEN CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS BOARD OF DIRECTORS David Babski, Camden Karen Cadbury, Rockport Bruce Cole, Rockport John W. Davidson, Camden G. Paul Holman, Camden Jeff Howland, Camden Peter Imber, Camden Beryl Ann Johnson, Lincolnville Rendle Jones, Camden Emily Lusher, Rockport Margaret Malmberg, Belfast Betsy Mayberry, Portland Sarah Miller, Camden Jane Monhart, Union C. Patrick Mundy, Spruce Head Maureen O’Keefe, Northport Karolyn Snyder, Camden

ADVISORY COUNCIL About the Camden Conference James Algrant, Camden Betty Allen, Newcastle very year since 1987 the Camden Conference has provided interested individ- Richard Anderson, Rockport uals from Midcoast Maine and beyond an opportunity to learn first-hand from, Bland Banwell, Belfast and engage directly with, renowned experts on issues of global importance. John Bird, Spruce Head E Dan Bookham, Rockland Each year, a topic is selected and speakers from government, academia, international Frederic Coulon, Rockport organizations, the media and business are invited to participate in a three-day con- Thomas M. Deford, Spruce Head ference in Camden in February, which is simultaneously streamed to audiences in Samuel Felton, Southwest Harbor Belfast and Rockland. Each speaker addresses a facet of the year’s topic, answers H. Allen Fernald, Rockport questions from the audience in all three locations, and participates in an exchange Desmond Fitzgerald, Camden of ideas throughout the weeken d. All the talks are subsequently made available to Will Galloway, Hope all at our website, www.camdenconference.org. Brewster Grace, Rockland Previous Camden Conference topics have included "The Middle East—What Charles Graham, Camden Next?" "The Challenges of Asia," and other regions from China to Europe. Like this Peter T. Gross, Camden year's “Global Politics of Food and Water” topic, the Conference has also considered Robert Hirsch, Owls Head Kathleen Hirsch, Owls Head thematic issues, including “The Environment and Foreign Policy” and “Re ligion as a David P. Jackson, Rockport Force in World Affairs.” The February 2015 Camden Conference will consider “Russia Ronald Jarvella, Northport on the Global Stage.” Adm. Gregory Johnson, Harpswell Exciting as the weekend is, the Camden Conference has over the years become Jean B. Lenderking, Belfast a much bigger presence in the educational and intellectual life of our area and state. James Matlack, Rockport Dozens of events related to the annual conference theme or also promoting "informed Ralph Moore, Rockland discourse on world affairs" are held in communities across Maine. These "Community Thomas C. Putnam, Rockland Events" include lectures, symposia, and senior-college courses; group discussions of Robert Rackmales, Northport selected articles and film clips; and longer films, art exhibits, and other cultural pro- Frederick P. Rector III, Camden Louis Sell, Whitefield grams. All are open to the public and most are free of charge. They are led by scholars Amb. Anne M. Sigmund, Deer Isle and other well-informed area residents. Seth Singleton, Mt. Desert The Camden Conference works to enhance teaching of global affairs in Maine Judy Stein, Belfast universities, colleges and high schools by subsidizing and encouraging student atten- Robert Tracy, Hampden dance at the February conference—often in the context of courses directly related to Michael Wyga nt, Portland the conference theme—staging student-oriented and student-led events around the Lucille Zeph, Orono conference, and developing teaching aids that use film clips from the conference. The Camden Conference is a nonpartisan, federally tax-exempt, not-for-profit STAFF 501(c)(3) corporation. The Board of Directors includes residents of several Midcoast Kimberly A. Scott, Conference Director Kathleen P. Brown, Administrative Assistant towns, all of whom volunteer their time, talent, and energy to organize the Conference and related programs. Financial support for the Camden Conference comes from attendance fees; mem- 2014 berships; individual gifts; and grants from institutions, foundations, and corporations.

EDITING: John F. Maguire, Rockland P.O. Box 882, Camden ME 04843-0882 DESIGN: Carol Gillette, Communication Graphics, Belfast Telephone: 207-236-1034 PHOTOGRAPHY: Sarah Szwajkos, Damn Rabbit Studios, Rockland Email: [email protected] PRINTING: Camden Printing, Camden Website: www.camdenconference.org FEBRUARY 20-22, 2015 Russia on the Global Stage

The 2015 Camden Conference will examine Russia’s role in the world, including both the risks and opportunities Russia faces as it strives to remain a world power. Additionally, the Conference will consider what current and potential Russian policies the United States should counter and what it should encourage—and how. While the hard work of selecting specific topics and speakers has barely begun, the Camden Conference Program Committee has identified some broad areas we expect to cover: Russia’s relations with the Middle East, China, the for- mer Soviet Central Asian states, the European Union and Eastern Europe and, of course, the United States. We hope, in addition, to provide historical and economic perspectives on this huge, resource-rich, yet often politically and socially troubled country. Its hydrocarbon resource base and its arctic potential are both enormous but pose equally large threats to the global climate. What should our attitude be? Some 15 percent of Russia’s population is Muslim. How are Russia’s Muslims treated and do they pose a threat, inside Russia and beyond, including to the US? Much has changed since Russia was last a Camden Conference topic in 1994. Then, America’s adversary through four decades of Cold War was humiliated by the collapse of the Soviet Union. Its energy and mineral resources were being privatized in a breakneck fashion that mainly created a few phenome- nally wealthy oligarchs and a culture of criminality. Its population was in decline and it had few friends and admirers on the global stage. Today, Russia’s population is slowly rebounding. Its economy grew by 7 percent on average through 1998–2008—helping to explain the continued popularity of President Vladimir Putin. Rapid growth resumed after 2008–09, but has slowed recently, and the economy remains heavily resource-dependent. But Russia is again a force to be reckoned with globally—and a topic we’re looking forward to exploring next February in Camden!

Check the Camden Conference website for updates on speakers, programs, com- munity events, and registration. www.camdenconference.org

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