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Irish Shopping Centres and Retail Parks: a Stock Analysis SPRING 2013

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Irish Shopping Centres and Retail Parks: a Stock Analysis SPRING 2013 Irish Shopping Centres and Retail Parks: A Stock Analysis SPRING 2013 part of the UGL global network Irish Shopping Centres and Retail Parks: A Stock Analysis The following report provides an overview of the performance of the Irish retail market; specifi cally the Irish shopping centre market and the Irish retail park market. The report commences with an overview of the general economic environment in Ireland together with an overview of the investment conditions in the retail property market. Additionally, a detailed analysis of the Irish shopping centre market is provided in terms of the size of the market on a county by county basis, the gross lettable area per thousand of the population in each location and the classifi cation of the top shopping centres on the basis of key criteria; size, population density, access to transport and the presence of leading retailers. The fi nal section of the report provides an overview Table 1 of the Irish Retail Park Market in terms of market Ireland’s Top Shopping Centres - 2013 size and density levels on a regional basis. Density Size Rating Region (Per ‘000 of Population) Dublin Dundrum Town Centre Very Large AAA++ The Blanchardstown Dublin Large AAA+ Centre Dublin The Square Town Centre Large AAA+ Liffey Valley Shopping Dublin Large AAA+ Centre The Pavilions Shopping Dublin Large AAA+ Centre, Swords Crescent Shopping Mid-West Medium AAA Centre, Co. Limerick Dublin Jervis Shopping Centre Medium AAA Navan Town Centre, Mid-East Medium AAA Co. Meath Whitewater Shopping Mid-East Medium AAA Centre, Kildare Omni Park Shopping Dublin Medium AAA Centre Source: DTZ Sherry FitzGerald Research 2 IRISH SHOPPING CENTRES AND RETAIL PARKS: A STOCK ANALYSIS | Spring 2013 Economic Overview The Irish economy has endured a volatile Growth in 2013 will continue to be driven by the external environment; however the recovery is also dependent on a journey over the past four to five years but resumption of consumer spending. Despite high unemployment, an element of stability has begun to emerge. on-going fiscal austerity and deleveraging of debt, domestic As recently as the beginning of 2012, the demand has shown signs of stabilisation. Preliminary figures outlook for the economy was largely uncertain from the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) for quarter three reveal encouraging signs of a tentative recovery in domestic stemming from external pressures; in particular demand, rebounding from a sharp contraction during the second the euro zone financial crisis. However, as quarter. Two of the three components of domestic demand, the year progressed a combination of policy consumer spending and investment spending, recorded growth in the three month period. In particular, a significant increase of initiatives implemented at both EU level and 8.5% in investment spending was the main driver of the increase domestically resulted in tentative signs of in domestic. stabilisation emerging in the economy. Consumer spending also recorded a quarterly increase rising by The outlook for 2013 is now relatively optimistic as the Irish a modest 0.5% during the three month period; this compares to economy continues its course towards economic recovery. That a 0.1% decline recorded in the previous quarter. The Department said fragilities remain; in particular, slowing economic growth in of Finance forecast consumer spending to contract by 2% in the UK and the Euro area continues to pose downside risks to the 2012 while a more moderate contraction 0.5% is forecast for growth outlook. 2013. Overseas confidence in Ireland has Furthermore Irish consumer sentiment, although weak, improved The outlook for 2013 improved considerably, boosted by in 2012 relative to 2011. Latest results from the KBC Bank Ireland/ the long-awaited deal with the ECB ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index for January 2013 reveal that is now relatively Irish consumer sentiment rebounded to a five-month high to optimistic as the Irish to restructure a costly promissory note into less expensive sovereign 64.2 from a sharp fall December. The lift in the index in January economy continues possibly reflects short term indicators such as post budget its course towards debt. The landmark deal should see Ireland regain its funding digestion and the January sales. The index may be subject to economic recovery independence, by increasing its some fluctuation in the coming months, particularly in relation to chances of exiting the bailout the impact of the looming property tax. programme and re-entering the financial markets by year end. On a further positive note, both Standard & Poor and Fitch have upgraded Ireland’s sovereign debt rating outlook from negative to stable. Figure 1 While final growth figures for 2012 are not yet available; the Retail Sales Volume Growth by Sector 2012 (annual % change) Department of Finance have forecast that the Irish economy will achieve modest growth of less than 1% in 2012, before gradually improving to 1.5% in 2013. Source: CSO Spring 2013 | IRISH SHOPPING Centres AND Retail Parks: A Stock ANALYSIS 3 Economic Overview Retail Property Performance The first six months of 2012 witnessed mixed performance in The latest data from the Investment Property Databank (IPD) retail sales across all sectors. However, the latter part of the reveals that 2012 marked the first annual positive return for the year saw signs of stabilisation emerge in line with improvements Irish market since 2007. According to IPD, total return for 2012 in sentiment which resulted in an uplift in retail sales. However, stood at 3.1%, boosted by strong income returns of 10.1%. Capital this was short-lived as the final two months of the year saw a values on the other hand continued to decline during 2012, albeit contraction in retail sales, which was most likely stemming from at a much reduced rate. Capital values fell by 6.4% during the Budget 2013 expectations. For 2012 twelve month period; while remaining in negative territory it as a whole, the volume of retail sales compares favourably to a reduction of 11.4% in 2011. declined by 1.1% when compared with The retail sector, which remains susceptible to adverse economic The volume of retail the same period in 2011. However, developments, continued to struggle during 2012. The latest IPD sales declined at an when motor trade figures are figures reveal that total return weakened during the latter half annual rate of 1.1% excluded, annual data reveals that of 2012 and as a result, registered a return of just 0.5% for the in 2012 headline sales grew by 1%. year as a whole. This is compared to returns of 4.9% and 4% for Despite a strong rebound in consumer office and industrial property respectively during the period. sentiment in January, the latest figures from the Central The quarterly income return for retail was steady during the year Statistics Office (CSO) reveal that retails sales were weaker than with 8.8% recorded for the year as a whole. The retail sector expected in January 2013. The volume of retail sales fell by 1.7% suffered the strongest sector decline in capital values falling by on a monthly basis thus marking the third consecutive monthly 7.6% in 2012. This brings the cumulative decline in capital values decline. When motor trades are excluded, sales were down 1.4% to -71% since the peak in December 2007. on December. The results are a reflection of the impact of Budget 2013 on household disposable incomes; in the manner of changes to PRSI allowances and reductions in social benefits. Figure 2 Retail Quarterly Total Return & Equivalent Yield Source: IPD 4 IRISH SHOPPING Centres AND Retail Parks: A Stock ANALYSIS | Spring 2013 Shopping Centre Market After more than a decade of robust expansion, Table 2 construction activity in the Irish shopping Regional Shopping Centre Density Levels centre market has declined notably in the past five years. 2012 marked the first calendar Density year since 1966 when no shopping centre Region (Per ‘000 of Population) development occurred in the entire country. Border 439 Ireland’s first shopping centre opened in 1966 in Stillorgan, Co. Dublin and since then the stock of shopping centres in Ireland Dublin 623 has risen to 1.98 million sq m as of December 2012. This equates Mid-East 292 to an average of 432 sq m of shopping centre accommodation per thousand of the population in the state in 2012. However, Midlands 503 across the regions, the spread of accommodation relative to the population ranges from 258 sq m in the west to 623 sq m per Mid-West 399 thousand in Dublin. South-East 423 There are currently 202 purpose-built shopping centres in Ireland, with the majority of centres not surprisingly located in South- West 282 the east of the country. Dublin alone accounts for 64 of the nation’s West 258 shopping centres, equating to 32% Dublin accounts for of the overall stock nationally. In State 432 contrast to this, counties in the 32% of the overall Source: DTZ Sherry FitzGerald Research stock nationally west and midlands have the lowest number of shopping centres, with Figure 3 only one shopping centre in a Distribution of Shopping Centres in Ireland, 2013 number of counties such as Cavan, Leitrim and Roscommon. That said, this analysis is based on a local definition of a shopping centre. In contrast, if the European definition of a shopping centre is applied, the number of developments within this definition falls by 80 to 122. Donegal Under the European definition, a shopping centre must be 3 4 at least 5,000 sq m. Applying this locally, the national total Gross Lettable Area (GLA) falls to 1.72 million sq m as 40% of the countries shopping centres are less than 5,000 sq m.
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