Public opposition and parliamentary support The role of public opinion in the decision to deploy a military operation to Uruzgan Pieter de Wit Bachelor thesis International Relations and Organizations Department of Political Science University of Leiden Supervised by Dr. M.F. Meffert Written by Pieter de Wit S1547011 June 12, 2017 Cover images Evert-Jan Daniels, 2009. From: http://evertjandaniels.nl/?Gallery=Afghanistan&key=91&page=1 Lex van Lieshout, 2017. From: https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2017/03/22/dit-zijn-de-nieuwe-leden-van- de-tweede-kamer-a1551207 “De kiezers, 2/3 van de Nederlanders, hebben gezegd een missie niet te zien zitten. Waar haalt men de arrogantie vandaan om dan te zeggen toch te gaan. Iedere geloofwaardigheid, dat de kamer(s) de kiezers vertegenwoordigen is nu zeker verdwenen.” (Truus, cited in Van der Meulen & Vos, 2012, p.1). “[T]o Hell with public opinion... We should lead not follow.” (US State Department Official cited in Aldrich, et al., 2006, p.491). PREFACE I did it! After a long and difficult journey it feels good to look back. Why I cannot make it myself easy? I could work half-days, party every week and submit a thesis that would be just enough to pass, like that it would already feel like holidays. I guess, this is just not who I am. I wanted more. The most interesting way was not the easiest however. This first time to do research brought a lot of challenges with it. Furthermore, to do research is one thing, to write it down in an understandable way is another… ‘Laugh, sweat and tears’ is perhaps the best description of the process. I had to be like the soldiers on the cover, to work hard with an iron discipline, and I had to be like politicians as well, to carefully weight my decisions to make the right choices. In the end, it was worth it. It was a great journey. I learned a lot because all I discovered was really interesting. The most interesting was to see the story of both sides, from official documents as well as from former politicians themselves. I am proud with this thesis as result. Thanks to my family and friends who gave their support. Thanks to my supervisor, Dr. Michael Meffert, as well for his advice. With this thesis my adventure of three years International relations & Organizations at the University of Leiden comes to an end. I think I can look back happily and satisfied on those three years and I already look forward to what the future might bring. First, I will enjoy a well-deserved holiday. Pieter de Wit Leiden, June 12, 2017 Table of contents Table of contents ..................................................................................................................... 5 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................ 6 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ............................................................................................ 8 2.1 Elite decision making in foreign affairs .................................................................... 8 2.2 The role of public opinion ........................................................................................ 9 2.3 ‘The’ public opinion ................................................................................................ 10 2.4 Puzzle and expectations ......................................................................................... 11 3. RESEARCH METHODS ..................................................................................................... 13 3.1 Approach & Design ................................................................................................ 13 3.2 Content analysis ..................................................................................................... 14 3.3 Questionnaire ........................................................................................................ 14 3.4 Validity & Reliability ............................................................................................... 16 3.5 Triangulation .......................................................................................................... 16 3.6 Limitations.............................................................................................................. 17 4. CONTENT ANALYSIS ....................................................................................................... 18 4.1 The data ................................................................................................................. 18 4.2 Results .................................................................................................................... 23 5. QUESTIONNAIRE ANALYSIS ............................................................................................ 24 5.1 The data ................................................................................................................. 24 5.2 Results .................................................................................................................... 25 6. CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................. 27 6.1 Research question & expectations ........................................................................ 27 6.2 Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 27 6.3 Discussion ............................................................................................................... 28 7. REFERENCES ................................................................................................................... 30 8. APPENDIX 1. Timeline Reconstruction ........................................................................... 33 9. APPENDIX 2. Answers Maxime Verhagen (CDA) ............................................................ 39 10. APPENDIX 3. Answers Wouter Bos (PvdA) ................................................................ 41 11. APPENDIX 4. Answers Mathieu Herben (LPF) ............................................................ 43 5 1. INTRODUCTION The Dutch mission to Uruzgan was perhaps the most dangerous military operation since World War II (Hazelbag, 2009, p.251). Besides, it was a ‘very disputable’ decision (Jockel, 2014, p.4). Recently, the debate evolved about the results after the Dutch soldiers left Uruzgan in 2010 (for instance: Trouw, 2016; De Correspondent, 2017; Ministry of Defense, 2016). Before the mission started in August 2006, opinions were already mixed. In different newspapers the mission was portrayed as either a ‘fighting mission’ or a ‘reconstruction mission’ and this was something where the political debate was shaped by ever since (Dimitriu & De Graaf, 2016, p.12). With these debates and the mixed results in Uruzgan the question arises how this decision was made. On February 2, 2006 the Second Chamber in Dutch Parliament (‘House of representatives’ or ‘Lower House’) voted in favor of government’s plans to deploy its military forces to the South of Afghanistan. Out of 150 members of the Second Chamber, 127 voted in favor and 23 voted against the mission (NRC, February 3, 2006). At the same time, a majority of the population opposed the mission, 45 percent was against, 33 percent was in favor and 22 percent was neutral (AIV, 2006, p.9). Considering that the Second Chamber reflects the opinion of the Dutch population, a difference that large between public and parliamentary support is surprising. It is understandable that citizens would like to see policy decisions in line with the public opinion. The quote of ‘Truus’ (cited in Van der Meulen & Vos, 2012, p.1) at the beginning of this thesis illustrates the frustration of someone who feels being played when parliament takes a decision that goes against the will of the population. On the other hand, it is understandable that politicians make their own decisions regardless of the public opinion. This is illustrated by the second quote, where a US State Department official (cited in Aldrich, et al., 2006, p.491) argues that he should lead instead of follow the public opinion. These conflicting ideas form the background of this research. To see how these two views relate to each other and more specifically, how public opinion is used by politicians in the decision to deploy a mission to Uruzgan the following research question is used: ‘To what extend and how, did politicians use public opinion in the decision to deploy a military operation to Uruzgan in 2006, and how can this be explained?’ 6 It is suggested that public opinion did not play a determining role in this decision (Voogd & Vos, 2010, p.442; Van der Meulen, 2009, p.136; Van der Meulen & Vos, 2008, p.393). However, when opinion polls are compared to the eventual decision, these suggestions are not very grounded. Public opinion could be a very important factor in the decision making process for the deployment of ‘our boys and girls’ to conflict zones, especially after the often discussed Srebrenica debacle where Dutch troops failed to protect a United Nations Safe Haven and where 7.000 people died as a result (BBC, 2012). After weighting the public opinion carefully, the decision could still be against the opinion of the public. To get a clear picture of the underlying mechanism this research was needed. Next to an answer to the research question it is expected that the findings of this research will shed some light on the broader question of what role public opinion plays in the decision