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The Economics of Shale Gas Development in China

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The Economics of Shale Gas Development in China The Economics of Shale Gas Development in China Yongjian Zhou A thesis in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Engineering School of Petroleum Engineering August 2016 ORIGINALITY STATEMENT 'I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and to the best of my knowledge it contains no materials previously published or written by another person, or substantial proportions of material which have been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma at UNSW or any other educational institution, except where due acknowledgement is made in the thesis. Any contribution made to the research by others. with whom I have worked at UNSW or elsewhere, is explicitly acknowledged in the thesis. I also declare that the intellectual content of this thesis is the product of my own work, except to the extent that assistance from others in the project's design and conception or in style, presentation and linguistic expression is acknowledged.' s,gned Date .. COPYRIGHT STATEMENT 'I hereby grant the University of New South Wales or its agents the right to archive and to make available my thesis or dissertation in whole or part in the University libraries in all forms of media, now or here after known, subject to the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968. I retain all proprietary rights, such as patent rights. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis or dissertation. I also authorise University Microfilms to use the 350 word abstract of my thesis in Dissertation Abstract International (this is applicable to doctoral theses only). I have either used no substantial portions of copyright material in my thesis or I have obtained permission to use copyright material; where permission has not been granted I have applied/will apply for a partial restriction of the digital copy of my thesis or dissertation.' Signed Date AUTHENTICITY STATEMENT 'I certify that the Library deposit digital copy is a direct equivalent of the final officially approved version of my thesis. No emendation of content has occurred and if there are any minor variations in formatting, they are the result of the conversion to digital format.' Signed Date I Acknowledgments I would like to express my sincere thanks to Mr. Guy Allinson from the School of Petroleum Engineering, University of New South Wales, for his excellent advice and enduring guidance. Without his encouragement and support, my research would have been far more challenging. I thank him for making time for me despite his busy schedules. He gave me great help with my language frequently during these two years. I also thank him for his patient reading I would like to thank all the people that I met, or I contacted in Sinopec, their willingness to give me advice and help me understanding various aspects of the petroleum industry in China. I give my deepest thanks to my parents Song Zhou and Fei Qing for their love and support through the years. They encouraged me to come to Australia to undertake this research. They always trust me and understand me even when I doubted myself. I am also extremely grateful to my wife Qianwen Liao. She gives me infinite love and understanding. I thank my friend Tengyuan Zhang and my colleagues Jing Yu, Min Liu, and Yudong Yuan from the School Petroleum Engineering. They have been there for me whenever I doubted my capability to complete this thesis. Without their motivation and blessings, this thesis would not have been a reality. Abstract With the recent rapid growth of China’s economy, the demand for energy has grown correspondingly and the trend is expected to continue. In response to this, China is seeking to adjust its energy structure by diversifying its energy supply. As part of this, shale gas development has become an important energy strategy in China in recent years because there are abundant prospective resources of shale gas. However, the related economic and environmental issues associated with shale gas developments are controversial. This thesis discusses shale gas developments in China and the USA. Then it focuses on the economics of shale gas development in China based on an analysis the costs and benefits of shale gas from the perspectives of (a) the Supply Chain companies (those in the upstream, midstream and downstream sectors) (b) the Whole Economy. Specifically, the aims are as set out below. A. To describe and quantify the benefits and costs of an example Chinese shale gas development for the Whole Economy. The benefits and costs include those external to shale gas Supply Chain companies. B. To assess the benefits and costs of an example Chinese shale gas development for the companies operating the shale gas operation. In other words, the boundary of the analysis is the shale gas Supply Chain on its own. The analysis excludes the economic effects of benefits and costs external to the development. C. By comparing the analyses in 1 and two 2, to quantify the incremental economic effects of external benefits and costs. The results show that the Fuling shale gas development has a mean nominal NPV of positive US$583MM as at 2011 from the perspective of the Supply Chain. That is when the economics exclude External Costs and include Fiscal Costs. However, the mean nominal NPV becomes negative US$595MM from the perspective of the Whole Economy. That is when the economics include External Costs and exclude Fiscal Costs. In other words, the economics of the project for the Supply Chain companies are significantly more attractive than the economics for the Whole Economy. The effects of External Costs are decisive factors in the economics of shale gas. For instance, the greenhouse gas emissions by burning shale gas and the existing central subsidies are significant External Costs. Content Page 1 The Economics of Shale Gas development in China Content Acknowledgements Abstract Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................................... 1.1 1.1 Background ..................................................................................... 1.1 1.2 Aims and Scope ............................................................................... 1.2 1.3 Methodology ................................................................................... 1.4 1.3.1 Cash Flow Forecasts .............................................................. 1.4 1.3.2 Net Present Value (NPV) ....................................................... 1.5 1.3.3 Probability Analyses .............................................................. 1.7 1.3.4 Monte Carlo Simulation ........................................................ 1.7 1.4 Economic Assumptions .................................................................... 1.8 1.4.1 Methane Price....................................................................... 1.8 1.4.2 Cost Assumptions .................................................................. 1.9 1.4.3 Other Economic Assumptions ............................................. 1.10 1.5 Resource Definitions ...................................................................... 1.10 Chapter 2 Literature Review ............................................................ 2.1 2.1 Economic Evaluations in the USA..................................................... 2.1 Yongjian Zhou August 2016 Content Page 2 2.1.1 Deterministic Evaluations ..................................................... 2.2 2.1.2 Stochastic Evaluation ............................................................ 2.4 2.2 Shale Gas Policies in China ............................................................... 2.8 2.3 Other Analysis ................................................................................. 2.9 2.3.1 Socioeconomic Analysis ........................................................ 2.9 2.3.2 SWOT Analysis .................................................................... 2.10 2.3.3 Porter’s Five Forces Model .................................................. 2.13 2.3.4 Economic Critical Depth (ECD) Analysis ............................... 2.14 2.4 Summary ....................................................................................... 2.14 Chapter 3 China’s Energy and Economy ........................................... 3.1 3.1 Primary Energy Consumption and the Economy .............................. 3.2 3.2 Total Energy Supply and Demand .................................................... 3.6 3.3 Energy Structure .............................................................................. 3.9 3.3.1 Coal ..................................................................................... 3.13 3.3.2 Crude Oil ............................................................................. 3.15 3.3.3 Natural Gas ......................................................................... 3.17 3.3.4 Hydropower ........................................................................ 3.18 3.3.5 Nuclear Power .................................................................... 3.19 3.3.6 Wind Power ........................................................................ 3.20 Yongjian Zhou August 2016 Content Page 3 3.4 Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions .................................................... 3.21 3.4.1 Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China...................................... 3.21 3.4.2 Comparison of Emissions by Different Types Energy ........... 3.23 3.5 Summary and Conclusion .............................................................. 3.24 Chapter 4 Shale gas in China
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