DOCSLIB.ORG

Can Switching from Coal to Shale Gas Bring Net Carbon Reductions to China? † ‡ § † ‡ Yue Qin, Ryan Edwards, Fan Tong, and Denise L

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Can Switching from Coal to Shale Gas Bring Net Carbon Reductions to China? † ‡ § † ‡ Yue Qin, Ryan Edwards, Fan Tong, and Denise L Policy Analysis pubs.acs.org/est Can Switching from Coal to Shale Gas Bring Net Carbon Reductions to China? † ‡ § † ‡ Yue Qin, Ryan Edwards, Fan Tong, and Denise L. Mauzerall*, , † Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Robertson Hall, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, United States ‡ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, E-Quad, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, United States § Department of Engineering and Public Policy (EPP), Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, United States *S Supporting Information ABSTRACT: To increase energy security and reduce emissions of air pollutants and CO2 from coal use, China is attempting to duplicate the rapid development of shale gas that has taken place in the United States. This work builds a framework to estimate the lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from China’s shale gas system and compares them with GHG emissions from coal used in the power, residential, and industrial sectors. We find the mean lifecycle carbon footprint of shale gas is about 30−50% lower than that of coal in all sectors under both 20 year and 100 year global warming potentials (GWP20 and GWP100). However, primarily due to large uncertainties in methane leakage, the upper bound estimate of the lifecycle carbon footprint of shale gas in China could be approximately 15−60% higher than that of coal across sectors under GWP20. To ensure net GHG emission reductions when switching from coal to shale gas, we estimate the breakeven methane leakage rates to be approximately 6.0%, 7.7%, and 4.2% in the power, residential, and industrial sectors, respectively, fi fi under GWP20.We nd shale gas in China has a good chance of delivering air quality and climate cobene ts, particularly when used in the residential sector, with proper methane leakage control. 1. INTRODUCTION production may result in a worse lifecycle climate performance 14,16 Facing serious domestic air pollution and growing international for shale gas than coal. Thus, it is critical to determine pressure to address climate change, the Chinese government whether shale gas in China can bring net greenhouse gas has been vigorously promoting the substitution of natural gas (GHG) emission reductions. Constrained by its production size ’ and data availability, there have been very few studies that for coal to address both issues. Inspired by the U.S. s shale gas fi ’ boom, China has been encouraging domestic shale gas quanti ed the environmental impacts of China s shale develop- development. According to the U.S. Energy Information ment. Chang et al. (2014, 2015) estimated the shale-to-well Administration (EIA), China has the world’s largest technically energy consumption and air pollutant emissions, as well as lifecycle GHG emissions of shale gas-fired power generation recoverable shale gas resources at around 31.6 trillion cubic ’ fi meters (tcm).1 However, due to challenges including greater based on data from China s rst shale well in Sichuan basin, formation depth, inadequate water resources, limited experi- using an input-output (IO) lifecycle inventory (LCI) modeling approach.17,18 However, as less than 20% of China’s natural gas ence with horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, under- 19 developed pipeline infrastructure, and government-controlled is used in the power sector, a detailed comparison of the − gas prices, China’s current shale gas development is sluggish.2 4 lifecycle GHG emissions between coal and shale gas across China’s major natural gas end-uses is needed. Overall, the Until recently, commercial shale gas production only existed in ’ Sichuan and Chongqing regions, with a total output of 1.3 climate impacts of China s shale gas development have received ’ less attention than they deserve. billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2014, meeting just 1% of China s fi total domestic natural gas production that year.5 However, This work serves as one of the rst attempts to build a ’ framework to estimate the lifecycle GHG emissions for China’s China s shale gas has large future potential, driven by factors ff such as large shale resources, favorable policies, improving shale gas, based on the major di erences between conventional infrastructure, natural gas market reform, and advancing − technologies.6 9 Received: August 12, 2016 In the U.S., substantial efforts have been made to compare Revised: February 2, 2017 the lifecycle carbon footprint of conventional gas, shale gas, and Accepted: February 8, 2017 − coal.10 15 Concerns exist that methane leakage from shale gas Published: February 8, 2017 © 2017 American Chemical Society 2554 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.6b04072 Environ. Sci. Technol. 2017, 51, 2554−2562 Environmental Science & Technology Policy Analysis and shale gas systems. We compare the lifecycle GHG 1 shows the fugitive EFs used in this study for China’s emissions of shale gas with that of coal in China’s major conventional natural gas system. Details are shown in the SI natural gas end-uses, using China’s domestic data whenever available, and supplementing with U.S. data otherwise. In Table 1. Methane Leakage Rates for Conventional Natural addition, we conduct a sensitivity analysis to identify key factors Gas System affecting our estimates of lifecycle carbon emissions of China’s a − shale gas system. We also estimate the breakeven methane processes mean (%) [low high] (%) leakage rates to ensure net carbon benefits from a coal-to-shale gas production and gathering 0.8627,28 [0.05−2.17]14,26 gas switch in China’s major end-uses to inform industrial gas processing 0.1128 [0.02−0.19]14,26 practices and aid policy design. gas transmission and storage 0.3230 [0.03−2.2]14,26 gas distribution 0.0929 [0.01−1.4]14,29 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS natural gas system total 1.37 0.11−5.96 a This section describes the method we use to estimate China’s Methane leakage rates are calculated as the ratio of total methane lifecycle GHG emissions from conventional natural gas, shale emissions within that stage to the national total gross natural gas production reported in that year. Refer to SI Table S2 for details. gas, and coal. Both upstream (energy extraction, processing, transport, and distribution) and end-use (power generation, residential cooking, and industrial boilers) processes are included within the lifecycle system boundary (Supporting Table S4 shows the energy efficiency and energy mix Information (SI) Table S1). Embodied emissions from information on upstream processes for China’s conventional − infrastructure construction are not included in this study. natural gas industry.33 35 Recent EFs estimates for fossil fuel GHG emissions included in our assessment are (1) Fugitive combustion are used to estimate CO2 emissions from upstream 36 CH4 emissions from both unintentional gas leakage and energy combustion. intentional vents due to safety concerns or engineering 2.1.2. Shale Gas in China. Shale gas and conventional 20 37 design; (2) CO2 emissions from both energy used to run natural gas typically have similar chemical composition, and the entire system and from end-use combustion. Global their primary difference is that the permeability of shale gas warming potential (GWP) values from the most recent IPCC geological formations is approximately 6 orders of magnitude 21 38,39 report are used to convert CH4 to CO2 equivalent (CO2eq). less than that of conventional gas. Therefore, shale gas IPCC estimates that over a 100 year time horizon, the same extraction is more technically demanding, energy intensive, and mass of CH4 traps 28 times more heat than CO2 (84 times for costly. As shown in SI Table S1, the upstream natural gas 20 years).21 As time scale choices have significant implications system has four stages including (1) preproduction and when evaluating the climate impacts of various fossil fuels, we production (referred hereafter as “(pre-) production”) and present the results based on both time horizons. gathering, (2) processing, (3) transmission and storage, and (4) As data scarcity prevents us to effectively characterize the distribution. In the (pre-) production stage, shale gas undergoes underlying distributions of emission sources,12,22 we estimate additional processes compared to conventional natural gas the lower bound, mean, and upper bound lifecycle GHG including horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing to enhance emissions of natural gas (both conventional and shale) and coal the flow of gas into the well. After production, shale gas goes under a corresponding low, most likely, and high estimate of through the same processes as conventional natural gas to reach upstream fugitive emissions and energy combustion emissions end users.14,40,41 Thus, the main differences in processes (SI Table S13). involving shale gas and conventional natural gas are in the (pre- 2.1. Upstream GHG Emissions for Natural Gas and ) production stage. Coal in China. 2.1.1. Conventional Natural Gas in China. As Unlike conventional natural gas production, which is China’s domestic natural gas production is small and is under relatively mature in both countries, shale gas production in the control of three national oil companies (NOCs), there is China is still at a nascent stage. Hence, different policy limited publicly available measurement data regarding fugitive regulations and industrial practices between China and the U.S. emission factors (EFs). Zhang et al. (2010, 2014)23,24 estimated may result in substantial differences in GHG emissions from ’ 25 ’ China sCH4 emissions based on Liu et al. (2008), which China and the U.S. shale gas production. Nevertheless, the provided CH4 EFs from various components of the oil and gas primary emission sources for shale gas production are likely to system on the basis of local conditions but primarily rely on the be the same since both countries use the same drilling 2006 IPCC Guidelines for Greenhouse Gas Inventories.26 technologies.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Assessing the Impacts of the Shale Gas Revolution on Electricity Markets and Climate Change
    The Shale Gas Paradox: Assessing the Impacts of the Shale Gas Revolution on Electricity Markets and Climate Change Andrew K. Cohen Harvard College May 2013 M-RCBG Associate Working Paper Series | No. 14 Winner of the 2013 John Dunlop Undergraduate Thesis Prize in Business and Government The views expressed in the M-RCBG Fellows and Graduate Student Research Paper Series are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government or of Harvard University. The papers in this series have not undergone formal review and approval; they are presented to elicit feedback and to encourage debate on important public policy challenges. Copyright belongs to the author(s). Papers may be downloaded for personal use only. Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government Weil Hall | Harvard Kennedy School | www.hks.harvard.edu/mrcbg The Shale Gas Paradox: Assessing the Impacts of the Shale Gas Revolution on Electricity Markets and Climate Change A thesis presented by Andrew Knoller Cohen to The Committee on Degrees in Environmental Science and Public Policy in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a degree with honors of Bachelor of Arts Harvard College Cambridge, Massachusetts March 2013 The Shale Gas Paradox: Assessing the Impacts of the Shale Gas Revolution on Electricity Markets and Climate Change Abstract The United States shale gas revolution has led to record-low natural gas prices and profoundly affects the energy economy. Shale gas potentially offers a lower-carbon fuel source cheap enough to dethrone coal, the primary and most carbon intensive US electricity source.
    [Show full text]
  • The Shale Gas Revolution in China—Problems and Countermeasures
    EARTH SCIENCES RESEARCH JOURNAL Earth Sci. Res. J. Vol. 22, No. 3 (September, 2018): 215-221 PETROLEUM GEOLOGY The shale gas revolution in China—problems and countermeasures Xiaohui Chen1, Zhicheng Liu2,*, Xing Liang3, Zhao Zhang3, Tingshan Zhang1,2, Haihua Zhu1, Jun Lang1 1School of Geoscience and Technology, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China 2Sichuan Institute of Land Planning and Surveying, Chengdu 610045, China 3PetroChina, Zhejiang Oil Field Company, Hangzhou, 310013, China *Email of the corresponding author: [email protected] ABSTRACT Keywords: shale gas; exploration and Shale gas development throughout the world has resulted in a revolution in the field of global energy and has also development; problems; countermeasures. become an important topic in China in recent years. While organic-rich shale is widely distributed in China and the initial commercialization of shale gas has been achieved, the research, exploration, and development of shale gas remain at an early stage. Problems exist with crucial technologies, innovation, institutional mechanisms, environmental protection, and other aspects of the industry. The shale gas exploration and development industry in China can learn from the experiences of other countries and strengthen its position in the market, with the support of new government policy. Given its unique geological conditions, China should speed up the introduction of technical innovation and establish its unique systems and methods for shale gas exploration and development. La revolución del gas de lutita en China-problemas y contramedidas RESUMEN Palabras clave: Gas de lutita; exploración y El desarrollo del gas de lutita en el mundo ha significado una revolución en el campo de la energía; en China, durante los desarrollo; problemas; contramedidas.
    [Show full text]
  • Clayton-Mastersreport-2016
    Copyright by William Travis Clayton 2016 The Report Committee for William Travis Clayton Certifies that this is the approved version of the following report: Policy Challenges to China’s Shale Gas Industry APPROVED BY SUPERVISING COMMITTEE: Supervisor: Joshua Busby Chien-hsin Tsai Policy Challenges to China’s Shale Gas Industry by William Travis Clayton, B.A. Report Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts and Master of Global Policy Studies The University of Texas at Austin May, 2016 Abstract Policy Challenges to China’s Shale Gas Industry William Travis Clayton, MGPS; MA The University of Texas at Austin, 2016 Supervisor: Joshua Busby As a result of China’s significant position in the petroleum market, contributions to greenhouse gas emissions, and domestic pollution, Chinese policy makers and industry leaders are increasingly highlighting China’s vast reserves of shale gas. Although there is growing production of shale gas in China’s Sichuan Basin, China’s state targets for shale gas development are still unmet. Thus, this work analyzes China’s shale gas policy, which is implemented through tools such as the petroleum sharing agreement, tax regimes, pipeline access, pricing system, regulatory structures, and international programs. Data in this paper is derived from published reports by industry experts. In addition, I carried out 10 expert interviews for this project, with interviews in Houston and by telephone. This paper evaluates specific qualities that attract shale gas investment and reinforce a mutualistic relationship between petroleum companies and the government, and judges the qualities that harm this relationship and are hindering shale gas development.
    [Show full text]
  • China's Global Quest for Resources and Implications for the United
    CHINA’S GLOBAL QUEST FOR RESOURCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNITED STATES HEARING BEFORE THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ONE HUNDRED TWELFTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION JANUARY 26, 2012 Printed for use of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission Available via the World Wide Web: www.uscc.gov UNITED STATES-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION WASHINGTON: 2012 i U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION Hon. DENNIS C. SHEA, Chairman Hon. WILLIAM A. REINSCH, Vice Chairman Commissioners: CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW Hon. CARTE GOODWIN DANIEL A. BLUMENTHAL DANIEL M. SLANE ROBIN CLEVELAND MICHAEL R. WESSEL Hon. C. RICHARD D’AMATO LARRY M. WORTZEL, Ph.D . JEFFREY L. FIEDLER MICHAEL R. DANIS, Executive Director The Commission was created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Public Law No. 106-398, 114 STAT. 1654A-334 (2000) (codified at 22 U.S.C. § 7002 (2001), as amended by the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for 2002 § 645 (regarding employment status of staff) & § 648 (regarding changing annual report due date from March to June), Public Law No. 107-67, 115 STAT. 514 (Nov. 12, 2001); as amended by Division P of the “Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003,” Pub L. No. 108-7 (Feb. 20, 2003) (regarding Commission name change, terms of Commissioners, and responsibilities of the Commission); as amended by Public Law No. 109-108 (H.R. 2862) (Nov. 22, 2005) (regarding responsibilities of Commission and applicability of FACA); as amended by Division J of the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008,” Public Law Nol.
    [Show full text]
  • Analysis of Resource Potential for China's Unconventional Gas And
    Energy Policy 88 (2016) 389–401 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Energy Policy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol Analysis of resource potential for China’s unconventional gas and forecast for its long-term production growth Jianliang Wang a, Steve Mohr b, Lianyong Feng a, Huihui Liu c,n, Gail E. Tverberg d a School of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, China b Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, Australia c Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, China d Our Finite World, 1246 Shiloh Trail East NW, Kennesaw, GA 30144, USA HIGHLIGHTS A comprehensive investigation on China’s unconventional gas resources is presented. China’s unconventional gas production is forecast under different scenarios. Unconventional gas production will increase rapidly in high scenario. Achieving the projected production in high scenario faces many challenges. The increase of China’s unconventional gas production cannot solve its gas shortage. article info abstract Article history: China is vigorously promoting the development of its unconventional gas resources because natural gas Received 5 July 2015 is viewed as a lower-carbon energy source and because China has relatively little conventional natural Received in revised form gas supply. In this paper, we first evaluate how much unconventional gas might be available based on an 26 October 2015 analysis of technically recoverable resources for three types of unconventional gas resources: shale gas, Accepted 27 October 2015 coalbed methane and tight gas. We then develop three alternative scenarios of how this extraction might proceed, using the Geologic Resources Supply Demand Model.
    [Show full text]
  • Forecast of Chinese Investment in US Shale Gas
    University of Denver Digital Commons @ DU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Graduate Studies 1-1-2014 Forecast of Chinese Investment in US Shale Gas Zhizhou Zhu University of Denver Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd Part of the Asian History Commons, Environmental Sciences Commons, and the United States History Commons Recommended Citation Zhu, Zhizhou, "Forecast of Chinese Investment in US Shale Gas" (2014). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 736. https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd/736 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Studies at Digital Commons @ DU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ DU. For more information, please contact [email protected],[email protected]. Forecast of Chinese Investment in US Shale Gas __________ A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of Josef Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver __________ In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts __________ by Zhizhou Zhu June 2014 Advisor: Professor Barry B. Hughes Author: Zhizhou Zhu Title: Forecast of Chinese Investment in US Shale Gas Advisor: Professor Barry B. Hughes Degree Date: June 2014 Abstract This thesis will make a forecast of the future growth of Chinese investment in the US shale gas industry in the short term (within the next 5 years) and in the long term (in more than 10 years). The thesis’s purpose is to study the purpose, trend as well as the impact on China itself in China’s recent asset acquisition activities in the US shale gas.
    [Show full text]
  • Energy Markets in China and the Outlook for CMM Project
    U.S. EP.NSII Coalbed Methane Energy Markets in China and the Outlook for CMM Project Development in Anhui, Chongqing, Henan, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou Provinces Energy Markets in China and the Outlook for CMM Project Development in Anhui, Chongqing, Henan, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou Provinces Revised, April 2015 Acknowledgements This publication was developed at the request of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), in support of the Global Methane Initiative (GMI). In collaboration with the Coalbed Methane Outreach Program (CMOP), Raven Ridge Resources, Incorporated team members Candice Tellio, Charlee A. Boger, Raymond C. Pilcher, Martin Weil and James S. Marshall authored this report based on feasibility studies performed by Raven Ridge Resources, Incorporated, Advanced Resources International, and Eastern Research Group. 2 Disclaimer This report was prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). This analysis uses publicly available information in combination with information obtained through direct contact with mine personnel, equipment vendors, and project developers. USEPA does not: (a) make any warranty or representation, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of the information contained in this report, or that the use of any apparatus, method, or process disclosed in this report may not infringe upon privately owned rights; (b) assume any liability with respect to the use of, or damages resulting from the use of, any information, apparatus, method, or process
    [Show full text]
  • A Comparison Between Shale Gas in China and Unconventional Fuel Development in the United States: Water, Environmental Protection, and Sustainable Development Paolo D
    Brooklyn Journal of International Law Volume 41 | Issue 2 Article 3 2016 A Comparison Between Shale Gas in China and Unconventional Fuel Development in the United States: Water, Environmental Protection, and Sustainable Development Paolo D. Farah Riccardo Tremolada Follow this and additional works at: https://brooklynworks.brooklaw.edu/bjil Part of the Comparative and Foreign Law Commons, Energy and Utilities Law Commons, Environmental Law Commons, International Law Commons, Natural Resources Law Commons, Oil, Gas, and Mineral Law Commons, Science and Technology Law Commons, and the Water Law Commons Recommended Citation Paolo D. Farah & Riccardo Tremolada, A Comparison Between Shale Gas in China and Unconventional Fuel Development in the United States: Water, Environmental Protection, and Sustainable Development, 41 Brook. J. Int'l L. (2016). Available at: https://brooklynworks.brooklaw.edu/bjil/vol41/iss2/3 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Law Journals at BrooklynWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Brooklyn Journal of International Law by an authorized editor of BrooklynWorks. A COMPARISON BETWEEN SHALE GAS IN CHINA AND UNCONVENTIONAL FUEL DEVELOPMENT IN THE UNITED STATES: WATER, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT *** Paolo D. Farah* & Riccardo Tremolada‡ INTRODUCTION ........................................................................ 580 I. THE REVOLUTIONARY ROLE OF SHALE GAS THROUGH THE PRISM OF CHINA’S ENERGY MIX: THE GROWTH OF A NEW INDUSTRY ................................................................................ 586 A. A Transition Toward a More Sustainable Future? ........ 587 * Paolo Davide Farah, West Virginia University, John D. Rockefeller IV School of Policy and Politics, Department of Public Administration and College of Law (WV, USA); Principal Investigator and Research Scientist at gLAWcal— Global Law Initiatives for Sustainable Development (United Kingdom); Scientific Vice-Coordinator of EU Commission Marie Curie IRSES, EPSEI Project.
    [Show full text]
  • 1. Accession Number: 20192607106201 Title
    2020/6/21 Print Record(s) 1. Accession 20192607106201 number: Title: Hydrocarbon accumulation conditions of Permian volcanic gas reservoirs in the western Sichuan Basin Title of 四川盆地西部二叠系火山岩气藏成藏条件分析 translation: Authors: Luo, Bing ; Xia, Maolong ; Wang, Hua ; Fan, Yi ; Xu, Liang ; Liu, Ran ; Zhan, Weiyun Author affiliation: Exploration and Development Research Institute, PetroChina Southwest Oil & Gasfield Company, Chengdu; Sichuan; 610041, China Source title: Natural Gas Industry Abbreviated Natur. Gas Ind. source title: Volume: 39 Issue: 2 Issue date: February 25, 2019 Publication year: 2019 Pages: 9-16 Language: Chinese ISSN: 10000976 CODEN: TIGOE3 Document type: Journal article (JA) Publisher: Natural Gas Industry Journal Agency Abstract: In order to figure out the hydrocarbon accumulation conditions of Permian volcaniclastic gas reservoirs in the western Sichuan Basin, we analyzed the hydrocarbon accumulation characteristics of volcaniclastic gas reservoirs in this area in terms of reservoir, gas source, play and trap. It is indicated that the favorable conditions for the hydrocarbon accumulation of volcaniclastic gas reservoirs in the Jianyang area in the western Sichuan Basin are as follows. First, in the Well Yongtan 1, vocaniclastic lava of effusive facies is dominant, and superimposed with late alteration and dissolution, pore-type reservoirs with devitrified dissolution micropores as the main reservoir space are developed. Second, geochemical analysis and comparison on natural gas reveal that the gas of the volcanic gas reservoirs in the Well Yongtan 1 is mainly derived from the Qiongzhusi 1/361 2020/6/21 Print Record(s) Formation of Lower Cambrian. Cambrian quality source rocks of great thickness are developed in Deyang-Anyue rift in the Jianyang area and they provide sufficient gas sources for the formation of gas reservoirs.
    [Show full text]
  • Water Availability for Shale Gas Development in Sichuan Basin, China † † † ‡ § § Mengjun Yu, Erika Weinthal, Dalia Patiño-Echeverri, Marc A
    Policy Analysis pubs.acs.org/est Water Availability for Shale Gas Development in Sichuan Basin, China † † † ‡ § § Mengjun Yu, Erika Weinthal, Dalia Patiño-Echeverri, Marc A. Deshusses, Caineng Zou, Yunyan Ni, † and Avner Vengosh*, † Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708, United States ‡ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708, United States § PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, Beijing, 100083, China *S Supporting Information ABSTRACT: Unconventional shale gas development holds promise for reducing the predominant consumption of coal and increasing the utilization of natural gas in China. While China possesses some of the most abundant technically recoverable shale gas resources in the world, water availability could still be a limiting factor for hydraulic fracturing operations, in addition to geological, infrastructural, and technological barriers. Here, we project the baseline water availability for the next 15 years in Sichuan Basin, one of the most promising shale gas basins in China. Our projection shows that continued water demand for the domestic sector in Sichuan Basin could result in high to extremely high water stress in certain areas. By simulating shale gas development and using information from current water use for hydraulic fracturing in Sichuan Basin (20 000−30 000 m3 per well), we project that during the next decade water use for shale gas development could reach 20−30 million m3/year, when shale gas well development is projected to be most active. While this volume is negligible relative to the projected overall domestic water use of ∼36 billion m3/ year, we posit that intensification of hydraulic fracturing and water use might compete with other water utilization in local water- stress areas in Sichuan Basin.
    [Show full text]
  • Commodities at a Glance: Special Issue on Shale
    UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT COMMODITIES AT A GLANCE Special issue on shale gas N°9 SHALE GAS New York and Geneva, 2018 © 2018, United Nations This work is available through open access by complying with the Creative Commons licence created for intergovernmental organizations, available at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Photocopies and reproductions of excerpts are allowed with proper credits. This publication has not been formally edited. United Nations publication issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. UNCTAD/SUC/2017/10 eISBN: 978-92-1-363266-6 ISSN: 2522-7866 NOTE iii NOTE The Commodities at a Glance series aims to collect, present and disseminate accurate and relevant statistical information linked to international primary commodity markets in a clear, concise and reader-friendly format. This edition of Commodities at a Glance has been prepared by Alexandra Laurent, statistical assistant for the Commodities Branch of UNCTAD, under the direct supervision of Janvier Nkurunziza, Chief of the Commodity Research and Analysis Section of the Commodities Branch. The cover of this publication was created by Magali Studer, UNCTAD; desktop publishing and graphics were performed by the prepress subunit with the collaboration of Stéphane Bothua of the UNOG Printing Section. For further information about this publication, please contact the Commodities Branch, UNCTAD, Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland, tel.
    [Show full text]
  • Can Fracking Green China's Growth?
    Report Can fracking green China’s growth? Opportunities, risks and recommendations for unconventional gas in China’s environmental transformation Ilmi Granoff, Sam Pickard, Julian Doczi, Roger Calow, Zhenbo Hou and Vanessa D’Alançon April 2015 Overseas Development Institute 203 Blackfriars Road London SE1 8NJ Tel. +44 (0) 20 7922 0300 Fax. +44 (0) 20 7922 0399 E-mail: [email protected] www.odi.org www.odi.org/facebook www.odi.org/twitter Readers are encouraged to reproduce material from ODI Reports for their own publications, as long as they are not being sold commercially. As copyright holder, ODI requests due acknowledgement and a copy of the publication. For online use, we ask readers to link to the original resource on the ODI website. The views presented in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of ODI. © Overseas Development Institute 2015. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial Licence (CC BY-NC 3.0). Cover photo: Shell: Checking gas detectors at Changbei, China. Contents Acronyms 8 Acknowledgements 9 Executive Summary 10 Ensuring shale gas reduces air and GHG pollution 10 Understanding and managing shale’s water impacts 11 Handling impacts and trade-offs for land use and local populations 11 Creating and enforcing a robust policy framework 11 1. Introduction: China’s push towards an ecological civilisation 13 1.1 China confronting the need for greener growth 13 1.2 Unconventional gas in the energy transition 14 1.2.1 Natural gas is a growing part of China’s energy sector 14 1.2.2 China is estimated to have the largest global shale resources 14 1.2.3 Chinese unconventional gas production is likely to remain substantial through the medium term 15 1.2.4 The implications of shale gas are clouded by polarised debate in the US 15 1.3 Understanding the risks of shale gas in China is important for China and the world 16 1.4 Structure of the analysis 16 2.
    [Show full text]