South Asia and Afghanistan: South Asia and Afghanistan: the Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry the Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry
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Independent • International • Interdisciplinary PRIO PAPER 7 gate Hausmanns Address: Visiting NO Grønland, 9229 PO Box (PRIO) Oslo Institute Research Peace South Asia and Afghanistan: South Asia and Afghanistan: The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry - 0134 Oslo, Norway Oslo, 0134 Visiting Ad Visiting NO Grønland, 9229 PO Box (PRIO) Oslo Institute Research Peace War (CSCW) Civil of Study the for Centre Is Afghanistan a playground Asia and the Persian Gulf re- ing in the expected political for the India-Pakistan conflict? gion, and excluding neither vacuum. The question is Or, are the countries in South the importance of Afghan whether neighbouring states 7 gate Hausmanns dress: Asia – Pakistan in particular – domestic factors nor global would revert to behaviour wit- the recipients of unrest that forces, this paper emphasizes nessed in the aftermath of the - spills over from Afghanistan? the way that the India- Soviet withdrawal in 1989, Norway Oslo, 0134 Alternatively, is the larger Pakistan conflict – the over- where their influence on dif- neighbourhood, South Asia whelming security issue in the ferent warring ethnic groups and Afghanistan included, South Asian region – informs sowed further discord for na- simply a victim of rivalry be- the two countries’ engage- tional unity and contributed to tween global powers? Views ment in Afghanistan. the civil war of 1992-1996, or, on the relationship between whether they will be able to 978 ISBN: 7 www.studio Studio Design: Afghanistan and its neigh- With the announcement of exert positive influences over - 82 - bouring countries vary widely. the beginning of the gradual the surviving Afghan state and 7288 - The different views have fun- US troops withdrawal from contribute to regional stability. 381 - damental consequences for July 2011 and plans to hand 1 how one understands the con- over security responsibility to sju.no flict, and for what policies one Afghan forces in 2014, atten- finds constructive. Cognizant tion has moved to the role of of the roles of actors in Central neighbouring countries in fill- cense. Generic 2.0 Attribution under Urnes, Tore Photo: Pakistan and India of Flags Creative Commons Commons Creative Availabl L i- Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh . Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh e Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) South Asia and Afghanistan: The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry Paper 2 of the PRIO Project ‘Afghanistan in a Neighbourhood Perspective’ Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) ii | South Asia and Afghanistan: The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Hausmanns gate 7 PO Box 9229 Oslo NO-0134 Oslo, Norway Tel. +47 22 54 77 00 www.prio.no This PRIO Paper forms part of the project ‘Afghanistan in a Neighbourhood Perspective’, funded by the Royal Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The project has previously published a PRIO paper titled ‘Afghanistan in a Neighbourhood Perspective: General Overview and Conceptualisation’, and will publish two additional papers on the Persian Gulf and the Central Asian perspective, respectively. Project description and further publications may be found on http://www.prio.no/Research-and-Publications/Project/?oid=50762208 Acknowledgement: The author would like to thank Kristian B. Harpviken (PRIO) for his comments to drafts of this paper, and Ammar Anees Malik (Sciences Po and George Mason University) for his invaluable research assistance. In addition, gratitude is extended to the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for support to this research. About the author: Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh is a Research Associate with PRIO, and directs a specialization on Human Security as part of the Master of Public Affairs (MPA) at Sciences Po in Paris. She holds a PhD and a Master’s degree from Columbia University. PRIO encourages its researchers and research affiliates to publish their work in peer- reviewed journals and book series, as well as in PRIO’s own Report, Paper and Policy Brief series. In editing these series, we undertake a basic quality control, but PRIO does not as such have any view on political issues. We encourage our researchers actively to take part in public debates and give them full freedom of opinion. The responsibility and honour for the hypotheses, theories, findings and views expressed in our publications thus rests with the authors themselves. © Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), 2011 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced. Stored in a retrieval system or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without permission in writing from the copyright holder(s). ISBN 978-82-7288-381-1 Cover design: www.studiosju.no Cover Photos: Front: Flags of India and Pakistan. At the end of the guard changing ceremony at the Pakistan-India border the respective flags are lowered. Photographer: Tore Urnes. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license. South Asia and Afghanistan: The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry | iii Contents Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY _______________________________________________ v The South Asian Security Complex _______________________________________ v Domestic Dimensions __________________________________________________ vi Relations with Major Global Powers ____________________________________ vii Afghanistan: Zone of Contestation or Cooperation? _______________________ viii Introduction ___________________________________________________________ 1 Setting the Scene: The South Asia Security Complex _______________________ 2 Main Argument and Organization _______________________________________ 6 Part I) Durability of the India-Pakistan Conflict ___________________________ 9 Legacy of Territorial Dispute ____________________________________________ 9 National Identities____________________________________________________ 10 Water Resources _____________________________________________________ 10 Economic Relations ___________________________________________________ 11 Asymmetric but Durable Rivalry ________________________________________ 11 Part II) Transformations from Within: Domestic Dimensions _____________ 13 Domestic Security Imperatives _________________________________________ 13 Pakistan’s Increasing Insecurity ______________________________________ 13 India’s Insurgencies _______________________________________________ 18 Internal Actors’ Role __________________________________________________ 20 Pakistan: ‘The Establishment’ ________________________________________ 20 India: Multiple Voices _____________________________________________ 23 National Identity _____________________________________________________ 24 Ethnicity and Ethnic Identity _____________________________________ 25 Pakistan’s Pashtun Problem __________________________________________ 25 India: Multi-Ethnicity in its Fabric _______________________________________ 26 Religious Identity and Ideology ___________________________________ 28 Pakistan and the Umma ____________________________________________ 28 India: Sworn Secularism _____________________________________________ 31 PART III) Relations Vis-à-Vis Major Global Powers _______________________ 33 Extra-Regional Aspirations ____________________________________________ 33 The US Entry and the Pak/India/Af Triangle ______________________________ 34 The Rise of China ____________________________________________________ 36 Russia ______________________________________________________________ 37 Iran ________________________________________________________________ 37 Balancing Powers ____________________________________________________ 38 Part IV) Afghanistan: Zone of Contestation or Cooperation? ______________ 41 Territory and History _________________________________________________ 41 Extension of Insecurity/Security ________________________________________ 42 National Identity _____________________________________________________ 43 External Relations ____________________________________________________ 44 Economic Motivations ________________________________________________ 45 Conclusion ___________________________________________________________ 49 iv | South Asia and Afghanistan: The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry South Asia and Afghanistan: The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry | v EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Is Afghanistan a playground for the India-Pakistan conflict? Or, are the countries in South Asia – Pakistan in particular – the recipients of unrest that spills over from Afghanistan? Alternatively, is the larger neighbourhood, South Asia and Afghanistan included, a mere victim of rivalry between global powers? Views on the relationship between Afghanistan and its neighbouring countries vary widely, with fundamental consequences for how one understands the conflict, and what policies one finds constructive. Cognizant of the roles of actors in Central Asia and the Persian Gulf region, and excluding neither the importance of Afghan domestic factors nor global forces, this paper focuses on the way that the India-Pakistan conflict – the primary security dynamic in the South Asian region – informs the two countries’ engagement in Afghanistan. The paper argues that because the problem of Afghanistan is at the periphery, rather than at the core, of the security problems of the South Asian Security Complex, any ambitions for influence in the future of Afghanistan that Pakistan and India, as the key players of South Asia, may have are related to resolving their own internal