A Case Study in Kabul Province, by Chona R
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All Bets are Off! Prospects for (B)reaching Agreements and Drug Control in Helmand and Nangarhar in the run up to Transition August 2011 European Commission 2013 Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit ii Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit Case Study Series All Bets are Off! Prospects for (B)reaching Agreements and Drug Control in Helmand and Nangarhar in the run up to Transition Funding for this research was provided by the European Commission January 2013 2013 Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit Editing and Layout: Sradda Thapa AREU Publication Code: 1302E © 2013 Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit. Some rights reserved. This publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted only for non-commercial purposes and with written credit to AREU and the author. Where this publication is reproduced, stored or transmitted electronically, a link to AREU’s website (www.areu.org.af) should be provided. Any use of this publication falling outside of these permissions requires prior written permission of the publisher, the Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit. Permission can be sought by emailing [email protected] or by calling +93 (0) 799 608 548. All geospatial imagery and photographs in this report were produced by Alcis Ltd, OSDR or David iv Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit 2013 About the Author poppy in rural livelihoods in Afghanistan for 17 consecutive growing seasons. He is currently a Visiting Fellow at the Feinstein International Centre at Tufts University. About the Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit The Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU) is an independent research institute based quality, policy-relevant research and actively disseminating the results, and to promote a culture of research and learning. To achieve its mission AREU engages with policymakers, civil society, researchers and students to promote their use of AREU’s research and its library, to strengthen AREU was established in 2002 by the assistance community working in Afghanistan and has a board of directors with representation from the donor community, the United Nations and other multilateral agencies, and non-governmental organisations. AREU currently receives core funds from the governments of Finland, Sweden, and Switzerland. Development Research Centre (IDRC), the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), UN Women, and the United States Institute of Peace in 2012. All Bets are Off! v 2013 Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit Acknowledgements This work would not be possible without the hard work of colleagues at the Organisation for be commended. Their willingness to continue to undertake research in rural Afghanistan with The geospatial support of the team at Alcis Ltd, in particular Richard Brittan, Tim Buckley, Matt Angell, and Dilip Wagh cannot be underestimated. The mapping and geospatial products that they diagnostic work used for identifying appropriate research sites and further exploring the results of data collection on the ground. While data collected through remote sensing and ground surveys offer valuable insights on current developments in rural Afghanistan, far more is understood about why particular events occur by integrating both methods throughout the entire research cycle. Further thanks go to a group of esteemed colleagues (in alphabetical order): Sultan Mohammed Ahmadi, Richard Brittan, Rory Brown, William Byrd, Pierre-Arnaud Chouvy, Matt Dupee, Paul Fishstein, Anthony Fitzherbert, Jonathan Goodhand, Mike Martin, Dipali Mukhopadhyay, and Ghulam Rasool for their comments on earlier drafts of this report. The time they put into this task and their insights are very much appreciated; the work would not be the same without their for their continued support for longitudinal analytical work on the role of opium poppy in rural livelihood strategies in Afghanistan. Without the funding they provide for this work our understanding of the different socioeconomic, political, and environmental factors that shape the multiple realities in rural Afghanistan, including how they impact levels of opium poppy cultivation would be severely constrained, and we would be left with the kind of quantitative data and metrics that all too often hinder informed policy dialogue on counter-narcotics. December 2012 vi Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit 2013 Table of Contents Executive Summary ......................................................................................1 1. Introduction ......................................................................................3 2. Methodology .....................................................................................8 3. Nangarhar: The State’s Retreat to its Equilibrium ..................................... 13 3.1 Politics at the Centre: The Return of the Nangarhari Elite ....................... 14 Encircling the Bulldozer ................................................................... 15 Making friends with other people’s enemies ........................................... 18 3.2 Beyond the Politics of Personalities: An Analysis of the Changing Political and Economic Circumstances of Rural Constituents .......................................... 20 The history of the valley plains .......................................................... 21 An area of economic surplus .............................................................. 26 ........................................... 28 Pulling back the curtain on state policies in the southern districts .............. 32 3.4 Conclusion ................................................................................. 45 4. Central Helmand: The Diffusion of State Space ......................................... 48 4.1 The Changing Face of Central Helmand ............................................... 49 Introducing new blood: the naqel and the canal ...................................... 49 Consolidating power in central Helmand ............................................... 54 .................... 57 An Expanding Zone of Resilience ......................................................... 59 Deteriorating welfare within the canal command area .............................. 62 Shifting sands: Physical and economic transformations in the Dasht .............. 72 4.3 Helmand: Conclusion ..................................................................... 88 5. Conclusion ...................................................................................... 92 Annex . .................................................................................................. 95 Bibliography ............................................................................................ 99 Request for Feedback ................................................................................103 Recent Publications from AREU .....................................................................104 2013 Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit Figures, Tables, and Boxes Figures Figure 1: Research sites in Nangarhar Province .....................................................9 Figure 2: Research sites in Helmand Province ..................................................... 11 ............................................................................. 23 Figure 4: Land grab in Surkhrud District, Nangarhar Province (2006 and 2011) .............. 24 Figure 5: Land grab in Surkhrud District, Nangarhar Province (2011) ......................... 25 Figure 6: Marble Mine in Upper Mohmand Valley in Achin District, Nangarhar Province .. 38 Figure 7: Crop damage due to eradication in Achin District, Nangarhar Province ........... 40 Figure 8: Poppy, Cannabis, and Wheat in Achin District, Nangarhar Province (April 2012) . 41 Figure 9: Eradication casualties in Nangarhar Province (2012) ................................ 46 Figure 10: Agricultural (light green) and Forest land (dark green) in Central Helmand (1975) 53 Figure 11: Agricultural land (light green) in Central Helmand (1990) ........................ 53 Figure 12: The reduction of land under crops following a ban on opium poppy in Dasht-e Aynak, Helmand Province (2008-2011) ..................................................... 67 Figure 13: Eradication casualties in Helmand Province (2012) ................................. 70 Figure 14: Land prepared for cultivation, north of the Boghra, Helmand Province ......... 84 Tables Table 1: Crops harvested in the districts of Surkhrud and Kama in Nangarhar Province .... 27 Table 2: Gross income on crops sales reported in select research sites in Central Helmand (April - May 2012) ............................................................................. 58 Table 3: Gross Income on crops sales reported in select research sites in central Helmand (April-May 2012) ............................................................................... 63 Table 4: Gross Income from wheat sales after household consumption (2011-12 growing season) .......................................................................................... 64 Table 5: Tribal groups amongst respondents in various research sites in Central Helmand (April - May 2012) ............................................................................. 76 Table 6a: Actual costs of agricultural production in the area north of the Boghra Canal (2011- 12 growing season) ............................................................................ 85