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TCP, 52. Proceedings of the International Workshop on Satellite PROCEEDINGS OF THE INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON SATELLITE ANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES Honolulu, Hawaii, USA 13–16 April 2011 Prepared by the co-chairs: Report No. TCP-52 Andrew BURTON and Christopher VELDEN Proceedings of the International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones Honolulu, Hawaii, USA 13–16 April 2011 Report No. TCP-52 Prepared by the co-chairs: Andrew BURTON and Christopher VELDEN Photo credit: Mr Jeff Hawkins, Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), USA © World Meteorological Organization, 2012 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chair, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03 P.O. Box 2300 Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 40 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO publications with named authors are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO or its Members. This document is not an official publication of WMO and has been issued without formal editing. The views expressed herein do not necessarily has the endorsement of WMO or its Members. CONTENTS GENERAL SUMMARY OF THE WORK OF THE WORKSHOP……………………… 1 1. OBJECTIVES ……………………………………………………………………… 1 2. ORGANIZATION OF THE WORKSHOP…..……………………………………. 1 3. IWSATC MAJOR FINDINGS…………….…..…………………………………… 1 4. OUTCOMES AND RECOMMENDATIONS ……………….…………………… 6 APPENDICES A. List of Participants………………………..…..……………………………….. 8 B. Workshop Agenda…………..…………….…..……………………………….. 13 C. Satellite Analysis Procedures in Operational Centers RSMC La Réunion…………..…………….……………………………. 15 RSMC Miami…………..…………….…..………………………………. 24 RSMC New Delhi…….…………….…...……………………………….. 26 RSMC Tokyo…………………………………………………………….. 34 TCWCs in Australia……..…………….………………………………… 44 TCWC Jakarta……..…………….…..………………………………….. 49 China Meteorological Administration………….…..………………….. 52 Hong Kong Observatory.…………….…...……………………………. 59 Joint Typhoon Warning Center…..………….…..…..………………… 62 NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS)…………………………………………. 64 GENERAL SUMMARY OF THE WORK OF THE WORKSHOP 1. OBJECTIVES The first WMO International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones (IWSATC) was organized by the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) in collaboration with the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), and the World Data Center (WDC) for Meteorology which is maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The main purpose of IWSATC is to increase the accuracy and reliability of satellite analyses of tropical cyclones (TCs) by sharing the latest knowledge and techniques amongst operational forecasters of the major warning centers and researchers. The organizers also envisaged the creation of a cross linkage between IWSATC and workshops of the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). In this regard, the first IWSATC was held back to back with the second IBTrACS workshop. The specific objectives of IWSATC are to: a) Describe the operational procedures of satellite analysis of TCs (including the use of the Dvorak technique) in the participating TC warning centers; b) Identify the differences in the procedures between the centers and their relevance to final TC intensity estimates and resulting Best Track data; c) Share recent developments in the satellite analysis of TCs, particularly the objective satellite-based TC analysis methods; d) Make recommendations on 1) how operational centers in common TC basins can better reconcile Dvorak procedural differences to derive more consistent TC estimates for real- time warnings, and among all TC basins for improved continuity in Best Tracks, and 2) how operational centers can optimally blend the emerging objective guidance methods with existing subjective methods in order to improve the overall satellite analysis of TCs as it relates to both operational warnings and the Best Track data. 2. ORGANIZATION OF THE WORKSHOP The IWSATC was held in the Asia Room of the Imin Center at the East West Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, USA, from 13 (p.m.) to 16 April 2011. The workshop was attended by 28 participants and was held back to back with the second IBTrACS, 11–13 (a.m.) April 2011. 2.1 Participants The list of participants can be found in Appendix A. 2.2 Programme The workshop agenda can be found in Appendix B. 3. IWSATC MAJOR FINDINGS 3.1 Satellite-based analysis of TCs: Current operational practices A representative from each TC operational centre presented a summary of their current satellite analysis procedures. The presentations are available from the WMO/TCP website at http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/IWSATC.html and the documents summarizing the 1 procedures can be fount at Appendix C. The following paragraphs summarize some of the more significant satellite analysis differences between agencies that can lead to discrepancies in reported maximum wind speeds (Vmax) during operations or in Best Track records. 3.1.1 Historically, the majority of reported TC Vmax values by operational centers have been derived from application of the Dvorak analysis, by converting the Dvorak Current Intensity number (CI) directly to a maximum near-surface wind speed. Hence, the CI is commonly the primary original metric of intensity estimates. A degree of scatter in reported CI values between agencies is expected given the subjective nature of the Dvorak technique, and differences of +/-0.5 CI between analysts are common. While a reduction in the spread of CI is desirable, biases between agency estimates of Vmax is of greater concern. One of the key objectives of the workshop was to identify existing biases between agencies and seek to better understand the causes. Referring back to the CI values for comparison of agency intensity estimates can be a first step towards reconciling analysis differences, since this circumvents the issues associated with use of different CI>Vmax tables (i.e. Koba et al. 1989) and different wind-averaging periods, as demonstrated in Nakazawa and Hoshino (2009). 3.1.2 USA-based agencies use a 1-minute averaging period for reporting Vmax. The Chinese Meteorological Agency (CMA) reports a 2-minute wind, and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) reports a 3-minute wind. All the other agencies report a 10-minute average wind speed. The Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) uses the Koba et al. (1989) table for converting CI to Vmax. All other agencies use the Dvorak (1984) CI>Vmax table, however agencies that report the WMO standard 10-min averaged Vmax generally apply a wind-averaging conversion to reduce the 1-min wind value that has been traditionally associated with the Dvorak CI>Vmax table (Dvorak 1984, Atkinson and Holliday 1977)1. Of the agencies represented at the workshop, all except Hong Kong Observatory (HKO; 0.9 conversion) use a 0.88 reduction factor. Following on from the recommendations of Harper et al. 2010, most agencies are planning to transition to a 0.93 conversion factor. Neither CMA nor IMD uses a fixed conversion factor but both agencies report that analysts occasionally subjectively reduce the reported Vmax value to account for the difference in wind averaging periods. It is worth noting that the Koba CI>Vmax table uses 10- minute winds and hence there is no implicit conversion between wind averaging periods for Vmax values reported by JMA. Table 1 provides a comparison between the CI>Vmax tables of Dvorak 1984 and Koba et al. 1989 (referred to hereafter as simply Koba) using a nominal conversion factor of 0.9 to convert the Dvorak CI>Vmax table to 10-minute winds. Table 1 demonstrates that even when the effect of different wind averaging periods is accounted for, significant differences in reported Vmax will remain when comparing estimates from JMA with those from other agencies. The Koba relationship is similar to the Dvorak relationship across the middle of the intensity range, but assigns significantly higher(lower) wind speeds at low(high) CI numbers. Participants discussed these differences without reaching agreement on how to consolidate to a single CI>Vmax relationship. 3.1.3 The use of different wind averaging periods for reporting Vmax can also have implications for the total number of TCs reported by an agency. Some agencies (e.g. the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, (BoM)) only include a system in their Best Track records if it has reached TC intensity, whilst other agencies use a lower intensity threshold for inclusion. Systems that have not reached a peak Dvorak intensity of T3.0 or greater are not systematically recorded by BoM, whereas JTWC will record a system with a peak Dvorak intensity of T2.5 as a TC. Where agencies use a lower threshold for including systems in the Best Track records, it should be possible to convert the reports to a common wind averaging period (or to a CI equivalent) to facilitate comparison. 1 As detailed in Harper et al. (2010), this traditional assumption is without a confirmed basis. 2 10minutewinds(kts) CI Kobaetal.1989 Dvorak1984 1.0 22 23 1.5 29 23 2.0 36 27 2.5 43 32 3.0 50 41 3.5 57 50 4.0 64 59 4.5 71 69 5.0 78 81 5.5 85 92 6.0 93 104 6.5 100 114 7.0 107 126 7.5 115 140 8.0 122 153 Table 1.
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