CPSXXX10.1177/0010414019852704Comparative Political StudiesCapoccia and Pop-Eleches 852704research-article2019 Article Comparative Political Studies 2020, Vol. 53(3-4) 399 –433 Democracy and © The Author(s) 2019 Article reuse guidelines: Retribution: Transitional sagepub.com/journals-permissions https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414019852704DOI: 10.1177/0010414019852704 Justice and Regime journals.sagepub.com/home/cps Support in Postwar West Germany Giovanni Capoccia1 and Grigore Pop-Eleches2 Abstract How harshly should perpetrators of past abuses be punished, to reinforce the legitimacy of a new democracy? Drawing on sociopsychological theories, we hypothesize that prodemocratic mass attitudes are favored by the perception that defendants in transitional justice trials have been punished in a way that is morally proportional to their offenses. This perception is shaped by the social categorization of defendants and the opinions about the certainty of their guilt that predominate in the mass public. When defendants are largely seen as co-ethnics and their guilt is contested, like in the West German case, prodemocratic attitudes are likely to be strengthened by lighter punishments and undermined by harsher sanctions. The analysis of subnational variation in patterns of punishment in postwar West Germany confirms this hypothesis and shows that these attitudinal effects persist in the medium term. Our findings have implications for research on transitional justice and democratization. Keywords democratization and regime change, political psychology, transitional justice, Germany 1University of Oxford, UK 2Princeton University, NJ, USA Corresponding Author: Giovanni Capoccia, Department of Politics and IR, University of Manor Road, Oxford OX1 3UQ, UK. Email:
[email protected] 400 Comparative Political Studies 53(3-4) Introduction What are the effects of transitional justice (TJ) policies on the prospects of democracy in post-authoritarian settings? TJ policies aim at “righting past wrongs” after a regime transition.