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Demographic and Labour Market Trends in Yemen

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Demographic and Labour Market Trends in Yemen DEMOGRAPHIC AND LABOUR MARKET TRENDS IN YEMEN A BACKGROUND PAPER TO FRAME THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE YOUTH EMPLOYMENT CHALLENGE AND THE NATIONAL MIGRATION POLICY Michele Bruni Andrea Salvini Lara Uhlenhaut International Labour Organization Regional Office for Arab Sates Copyright © International Labour Organization 2014 First published 2014 Publications of the International Labour Office enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Convention. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation, application should be made to ILO Publications (Rights and Permissions), International Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, or by email: [email protected]. The International Labour Office welcomes such applications. Libraries, institutions and other users registered with reproduction rights organizations may make copies in accordance with the licences issued to them for this purpose. Visit www.ifrro.org to find the reproduction rights organization in your country. ILO Cataloguing in Publication Data Bruni, Michele; Salvini, Andrea; Uhlenhaut, Lara Demographic and labour market trends in Yemen : a background paper to frame the interface between the youth employment challenge and the national migration policy / Michele Bruni, Andrea Salvini, Lara Uhlenhaut ; International Labour Organization, ILO Regional Office for the Arab States. - Beirut: ILO, 2014 ISBN: 9789221291046; 9789221291053 (web pdf) International Labour Organization; ILO Regional Office for the Arab States employment / migration policy / labour market analysis / trend / projection / demographic aspect / Yemen 13.01.3 The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval. ILO publications can be obtained through major booksellers or ILO local offices in many countries, or direct from ILO Publications, International Labour Office, CH- 1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland. Catalogues or lists of new publications are available free of charge from the above address, or by email: [email protected] Visit our website: www.ilo.org/publns For ILO publications in Arabic, please contact: ILO Regional Office for Arab States P.O.Box 11-4088 Riad El Solh 1107-2150 Beirut – Lebanon Publications in Arabic are available on: www.ilo.org/arabstates 4 PREFACE Since the popular uprisings started in late 2010, many countries in the Arab region have entered a period of political transition. Following the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, Yemen’s mass protests erupted in 2011 uniting people from different segments of society. Yemeni protesters called for the improvement of economic and socio-political conditions. Lack of job opportunities, especially among women and the youth, has forced Yemenis into the informal economic sector, which constitutes the main engine of job creation, although it is characterized by poor quality of employment, as well as absence of stability and protection. Yemen’s development depends on the government’s ability to generate employment, promote education and skills development, and provide decent employment conditions for its young generation and women. This, in turn, requires a strong commitment to social and economic reform, and the transformation of state institutions. This paper offers an analysis of demographic and labour market trends in Yemen that may prove important to inform policy makers on the magnitude of the employment and migration challenge for the years to come. The paper also emphasizes the importance of the protection of Yemeni workers in GCC countries and the advancement of women’s economic empowerment. Swiss Development Cooperation (SDC) funded the ILO project “Migration and Governance Network (MAGNET)”, which provided input to the development of the National Youth Employment Plan approved by the Prime Minister’s Office on 20 November 2013. We extend our gratitude to the Government of Switzerland for the financial support it provided to implement this project. Special thanks go to the staff of the ILO DWT/CO in Beirut, in particular Ms. Mary Kawar, Senior 5 Specialist on Employment Policy, Mr. Azfar Khan, Senior Specialist on Labour Migration, Mr. Anwar Fahran, Senior Statistician, as well as Mr. Patrick Daru, Senior Specialist on Skills Development and Employability, for their technical contributions. The work benefitted from the peer review of Ms. Maria Gallotti (ILO Geneva), Mr. George Ksaifi (former Head of Socio Economic Department at ESCWA Beirut) and Mr. Adam Coutts (University of Cambridge, UK). 6 CONTENTS Preface 5 Executive Summary 15 Chapter 1: Long-run Demographic Trends 1. The Demographic Transition: Timing and Impact 19 2. Challenges Due to Demographic Changes 19 2.1 The Education Challenge 24 2.1.1 Yemen’s Education System 24 2.1.2 Training Age Population 25 2.1.3 Enrolment and Key Obstacles 27 2.2 The Employment Challenge 29 3. Future Demographic Trends 32 Chapter 2: Labour Market Analysis 1. Main Labour Market Variables 2004-2010 35 2. Population Age Structure 36 3. Main Labour Market Indicators: 2010 37 4. Labour Market Indicators by Age Group 38 5. Labour Force by Sex, Age and Educational Level 41 6. Employment by Sector 43 7. Status in Employment 44 8. Employment by Occupation 47 9. Unemployment 49 10. The Inactive 53 Chapter 3: Policy Recommendations Ways Forward 56 Promoting Yemeni Workers in GCC Countries 57 Towards Women’s Economic Empowerment 58 A Labour Market that Fosters Youth Employment 59 7 Beyond More Jobs to Better Jobs 60 An Alternative Development Paradigm: Investment in Education and Data Monitoring Systems 60 Bibliography 63 8 LIST OF ACRONYMS CBR Crude Birth Rate CDR Crude Death Rate DT Demographic Transition GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GOY Government of Yemen ILO International Labour Organization IMR Infant Mortality Rate LEB Life Expectancy at Birth LMIS Labour Market Information System MB Migration Balance MOE Ministry of Education MOTEVT Ministry of Technical Education and Vocational Training MOSAL Ministry of Social Affairs and Labour NB Natural Balance TAP Training Age Population TB Total Balance TEVT Technical Education and Vocational Training UNDESA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNICEF United Nations Children Fund UNDP United Nations Development Programme WAP Working Age Population 9 TABLES Table 1.1 Total fertility rate, Infant mortality rate and Life 20 expectancy at birth; from 1950-1955 to 2005-2010 Table 1.2 Demographic accounting; from 1950-1955 to 2005- 23 2010 Table 1.3 Population by main age groups; absolute values, 23 percentage composition, absolute changes, percentage changes; from 1950-1955 to 2005-2010 Table 1.4 Population in training age by sex; absolute values in 25 thousand; estimates from 1950-1955 to 2005-2010 and projections to 2055-2060 Table 2.1 Main labour market variables by sex; 2004-2010; 35 absolute values (thousand); absolute change and percentage change Table 2.2 Main labour market indicators by sex; 2004-2010; 35 absolute values and absolute changes Table 2.3 Population by main age groups; absolute values and 35 percentage composition; 2010 Table 2.4 Population by sex and urban- rural; absolute values 37 and percentage composition; 2010 Table 2.5 Main labour market indicators by sex and main age 38 groups; 2010 Table 2.6 Labour force and participation rates by sex and five 40 year age group, and percentage of women; 2010 Table 2.7 Employment and employment to population by sex, and 40 five year age group, and percentage of women; 2010 Table 2.8 Labour force by sex and educational level; absolute 42 values; 2010 10 Table 2.9 Labour force by sex and educational level; percentage 43 distribution; 2010 Table 2.10 Employed by sex and sector; absolute values and 44 percentage composition; 2010 Table 2.11 Employed by sex, five year age group and status 44 in employment; absolute values and percentage composition; 2010 Table 2.12 Employed by sex, sector and status in employment; 46 absolute values and percentage composition; 2010 Table 2.13 Employed by sex and occupation; absolute values and 47 percentage composition; 2010 Table 2.14 Employed by sector and occupation; absolute values 49 and percentage composition; 2010 Table 2.15 Unemployed by sex and ten year age group; absolute 50 values and percentage composition; 2010 Table 2.16 Economically inactive by reason for inactivity and sex; 53 2010 11 GRAPHS Graph 1.1 Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Crude Death Rate (CDR) 21 and population Growth Rate (GR), in thousand; from 1950-1955 to 2005-2010 Graph 1.2 Births, death rate and absolute change in total 22 population; five years values (in thousand); from 1950-1955 to 2005-2010 Graph 1.3 Population
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