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Showbox (086980 KQ) Tentpole Strategy and Overseas Business to Deliver Positive Results in 2016

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Showbox (086980 KQ) Tentpole Strategy and Overseas Business to Deliver Positive Results in 2016 Showbox (086980 KQ) Tentpole strategy and overseas business to deliver positive results in 2016 Media 3Q15 review: Tentpole strategy pays off Earnings: Showbox reported record quarterly earnings in 3Q, with revenue of W66.1bn Results Comment and operating profit of W8.7bn. The robust performance was driven by the hit films Assassination and The Throne , which were successively released in the quarter. The November 17, 2015 company’s movies sold around 18.19mn tickets in 3Q, representing 58% of our full-year estimate. With no particular items on the non-operating side, the robust operating profit directly translated into a strong net profit. (Maintain) Buy Market: August is generally the biggest month for the domestic box-office market. This year, a string of domestic films performed strongly in 3Q, from Assassination (Showbox; Target Price (12M, W) 11,000 released in mid-July) to Veteran (CJ E&M; August) and The Throne (Showbox ; September). The strength of the box office throughout 3Q is likely to have a bearing on Share Price (11/16/15, W) 7,320 film distribution strategies, as it indicates that studios do not necessarily eat into each other’s ticket sales by releasing tentpoles (hit titles that provide a source of steady cash Expected Return 50% flow) around the same time, and rather can benefit from a seasonal increase in movie theater attendance during the period. As a result, next year’s film releases could be more concentrated in the peak season, and the quality and marketing strategies for tentpole films are likely to have greater importance. OP (15F, Wbn) 11 Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 11 Watch 4Q earnings momentum and tentpole films/China co-productions in 2016 EPS Growth (15F, %) - Showbox’s cumulative earnings during 1Q-3Q have already surpassed last year’s full-year Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 21.1 figures. For the final quarter, we think the company will focus on maintaining margins . P/E (15F, x) 42.0 4Q variables: The two biggest variables in 4Q will be box-office revenue from The Market P/E (15F, x) 11.4 Throne and the box-office showing of the upcoming film The Insiders . For The Throne KOSDAQ 659.20 net profits above the breakeven point will be recognized in 4Q, providing additional earnings momentum in the quarter. The Insiders , which is set to hit theaters on Market Cap (Wbn) 458 November 19 th , is believed to have been made on an industry-average budget . The film Shares Outstanding (mn) 63 is a crime drama based on Yoon Tae-ho’s webtoon of the same name, directed by Woo Free Float (%) 42.2 Min-ho and starring Lee Byung-hun, Jo Seung-woo, and Baek Yoon-sik. Foreign Ownership (%) 2.4 2016 lineup: Showbox has around 10 domestic films lined up for 2016. Among them, we Beta (12M) 1.21 believe the company’s tentpoles will be A Violent Prosecutor (a crime drama starring 52-Week Low 4,310 Hwang Jung-min and Kang Dong-won) and The Tunnel (a disaster movie starring Ha 52-Week High 9,770 Jung-woo and Bae Doo-na). In China, the company is co-producing several films with Huayi Brothers and the first project could hit theaters as early as 1H16. The company’s (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M performance in China is likely to have an important impact on earnings and shares. Absolute -1.7 -3.8 58.6 Relative 1.6 2.9 30.4 Maintain Buy and TP of W11,000 The strong 3Q results confirmed the company’s potential to drive earnings through the 230 Showbox KOSDAQ distribution of tentpole films. In 2016, we expect the company to implement a similar 180 distribution strategy in the domestic market. Such a tentpole strategy, combined with the execution of co-production projects in China, should support the company’s structural growth story. We maintain our Buy rating and target price of W11,000 in 130 light of near-term margin expansion and mid/long-term growth prospects. 80 11.14 3.15 7.15 11.15 Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue (Wbn) 88 107 72 121 125 130 [Telecom Service / Media] OP (Wbn) 10 5 2 11 11 12 Jee-hyun Moon OP margin (%) 11.4 4.7 2.8 9.1 8.8 9.2 +822-768-3615 NP (Wbn) -5 2 -2 11 9 10 [email protected] EPS (W) -79 38 -27 174 151 155 ROE (%) -4.7 2.3 -1.6 9.9 7.9 7.5 Nu-ri Ha +822-768-4130 P/E (x) - 84.3 - 42.0 48.6 47.4 [email protected] P/B (x) 1.0 1.9 2.8 4.0 3.7 3.4 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. November 17, 2015 Showbox Earnings forecast TableTableTable 111.1. Quarterly earnings trend (Wbn, %) 1Q141Q141Q14 2Q142Q142Q14 3Q143Q143Q14 4Q144Q144Q14 1Q151Q151Q15 2Q152Q152Q15 3Q153Q153Q15 Revenue 12 15 32 12 24 13 66 Operating profit 0 1 4 -2 2 0 9 OP margin -2.2 4.8 11.5 -19.1 8.9 2.8 13.213.213.2 Net profit 0 -2 4 -4 3 0 9 Number of admissions (‘000 persons) 2,730 3,320 8,710 1,310 7,410 2,730 18,190 Notes: All figures are based on non-consolidated K-IFRS Source: Company data, KOFIC, KDB Daewoo Securities Research TableTableTable 222.2... Annual earnings trend and forecast (Wbn, %) 201220122012 201320132013 201420142014 2015F2015F2015F 2016F2016F2016F Revenue 88 107 72 121 125 Domestic – Film screening 77 91 54 103 94 Domestic – IP 8 9 14 14 18 Exports 2 4 3 4 13 Other 1 3 1 0 0 Operating profit 10 5 2 11 11 OP margin 11.0 5.1 2.5 9.1 8.8 Net profit -5 2 -2 11 9 Net margin -5.6 2.2 -2.4 9.1 7.2 YoYYoYYoY Revenue 21.5 -32.6 68.4 3.3 Domestic – Film screening 17.9 -40.7 91.1 -8.3 Domestic – IP 9.4 54.7 -2.6 30.1 Exports 123.2 -29.6 50.0 200.0 Other 283.4 -58.8 -65.4 0.2 Operating profit -44.1 -66.5 498.0 4.6 Net profit TTB TTR TTB -13.2 Major assumptions Number of admissions 24,739 29,169 16,070 31,108 28,340 (‘000 persons) A Violent Prosecutor, The Thieves, The Face Reader, Kundo: Age of the Assassination, The Tunnel Major titles Nameless Gangster: Mr. Go, Rampant, The Throne Co-productions with Rules of the Time Secretly, Greatly The Divine Move China and the US Notes: All figures are based on non-consolidated K-IFRS; TTB and TTR refer to “turning to black” and “turning to red,” respectively Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Table 333.3. Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, W, %) Previous Revised % chg. NoteNoteNotesNote sss 2015F2015F2015F 2016F2016F2016F 2015F2015F2015F 2016F2016F2016F 2015F2015F2015F 2016F2016F2016F Revenue 125 126 121 125 -3.0 -0.5 - Reflects lineup trend Operating profit 11 11 11 11 -1.5 3.0 - Revised rate of cost of sales estimates Net profit 8 10 11 9 36.1 -5.5 - Reflects 3Q15 earnings detail EPS 126 152 174 151 38.1 -0.7 OP margin 8.7 8.8 9.1 8.8 Net margin 6.3 7.6 9.1 7.2 Notes: All figures are based on non-consolidated K-IFRS Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 November 17, 2015 Showbox Main lineup Figure 111.1. The InsiderInsiderssss (to be released on NovNov.... 191919 ththth ) is based on a webtoon of the same name by Yoon TaeTae----hohohoho Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 222.2. Expected 2016 tentpole movies: A Violent Prosecutor (((starring(starring KangKangKang DongDongDong-Dong ---wonwonwonwon)) and The Tunnel (((starring(starring Ha JungJung----woowoowoowoo)))) Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research TableTableTable 444.4. ShowboxShowbox’’’’ssss expected film lineup for 2016 Country TitleTitleTitle Director Main cast Korea In the Mood for Love Jo Kyu-jang Moon Chae-won, Yu Yeon-seok A Man and Woman Lee Yoon-gi Jeon Do-yeon, Gong Yu A Violent Prosecutor Lee Il-hyung Hwang Jung-min, Kang Dong-won Family Plan Kim Tae-gon Kim Hye-soo, Ma Dong-seok Key of Life Lee Gye-Byeok Yu Hae-jin, Lee Joon, Jo Yoon-hee A Murderer's Guide to Memorization Won Shin-yeon Kyung-gu Sol, Kim Nam-gil, Seolhyun The Tunnel Kim Sung-hoon Ha Jung-woo, Oh Dal-su Revival Kwak Kyung-taek Kim Rae-won, Kim Hae-sook, Sung Garyeojin Sigan Eom Tae-hwa KangDong -Dong-wonil The Prison (tentative) Na Hyun Tentative Six Chinese movies to be released China (Huayi Brothers) over a three-year period Korea Six Korean movies to be released (co-production (Blumhouse and Ivanhoe) over a five-year period with US) Notes: Described in order of approximate release date Source: Company data, media reports, KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 3 November 17, 2015 Showbox Showbox (086980 KQ/Buy/TP: W11,000) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F (Wbn) 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue 727272 121121121 125125125 130130130 Current Assets 919191 105105105 115115115 123123123 Cost of Sales 626262 101101101 105105105 109109109 Cash and Cash Equivalents 17 47 52 56 Gross Profit 101010 202020 202020 212121 AR & Other Receivables 8 13 13 14 SG&A Expenses 888 999 999 101010 Inventories 0 0 0 0 Operating Profit (Adj) 222 111111 111111 121212 Other Current Assets 66 45 50 53 Operating Profit 222 111111 111111 121212 NonNonNon-Non ---CurrentCurrent Assets 505050 727272 747474 787878 NonNonNon-Non ---OperatingOperating Profit ---4-444 000 000 000 Investments in Associates 21 36 37 39 Net Financial Income 1 0 0 0 Property, Plant and Equipment 0 0 0 0 Net Gain from Inv in Associates 0 0 0 0 Intangible Assets 1 0 0 1 Pretax Profit -2 11 11 12 Total Assets 141141141 178178178 189189189 201201201
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