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SHARE of APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE in OPPORTUNITY ZONES Washington Metro Area

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SHARE of APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE in OPPORTUNITY ZONES Washington Metro Area THE ECONOMY United States Jobs Change Net inUnited States GROWTH JOB OF IS PLENTY THERE Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, PolicySage Group; February 2020. -1000 IN THOUSANDS -800 -600 -400 -200 200 400 600 800 0 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 145,000 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 NONFARM EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY United States | 12 Months Ending December 2019 Education and Health Services 647 Professional and Business Services 397 Leisure and Hospitality 388 Government 161 Construction 151 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 125 Financial Activities 122 Other Services 80 Manufacturing 46 Information 12 Mining and Logging -21 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 IN THOUSANDS Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Sage Policy Group; February 2020. NONFARM EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY Washington Metro Area | 12 Months Ending December 2019 Professional and Business Services 18,200 Leisure and Hospitality 18,100 Education and Health Services 6,900 Government 3,000 Mining, Logging, and Construction 3,000 Financial Activities 1,800 Washington metro area total: +52,600; +1.6% Manufacturing 1,800 U.S. total: +2,108,000; +1.4% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,500 Other Services 100 Information -1,800 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Sage Policy Group; February 2020. EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 25 Largest Metro Areas | 12 Months Ending December 2019 Dallas/Fort Worth Orlando San Antonio Phoenix Seattle Houston Charlotte Atlanta Tampa San Diego Denver San Francisco Riverside/San Bernardino Portland, OR Baltimore Washington 1.6% Miami Los Angeles Boston St. Louis New York Philadelphia Chicago Minneapolis-St. Paul Detroit 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Sage Policy Group; February 2020. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 25 Largest Metro Areas | December 2019 Philadelphia Phoenix Detroit Los Angeles Houston Riverside-San Bernardino New York St. Louis Chicago Charlotte Minneapolis-St. Paul Dallas/Fort Worth United States Baltimore San Diego = 3.5% San Antonio Portland Seattle Atlanta Washington 2.6% Tampa Orlando Denver San Francisco Miami Boston 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Sage Policy Group; February 2020. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, PolicySage Group; February 2020. 12-MONTH % CHANGE United States AND GROWTH SALARIES IN WAGES 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Q4 2002 Q2 2003 Q4 2003 Q2 2004 Q4 2004 Q2 2005 Q4 2005 Q2 2006 Q4 2006 Q2 2007 Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q4 2008 Q2 2009 Q4 2009 Q2 2010 Q4 2010 Q2 2011 Q4 2011 Q2 2012 Q4 2012 Q2 2013 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q4 2015 Q2 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q4 2017 2.9% Q2 2018 Q4 2018 Q2 2019 Q4 2019 Source: U.S. Bureau, Census Sage Policy Group; February 2020. IN BILLIONS United States SALES RETAIL $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 $550 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 United States ITEMS LESS &ENERGY FOOD ALL INDEX: PRICE CONSUMER Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, PolicySage Group; February 2020. 12-MONTH % CHANGE 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 2.2% Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Source: Board of Governors of Federalthe Reserve System,Sage Policy Group; February 2020. United States 10 10% 12% 14% 16% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% - YEAR TREASURY CONSTANT MATURITY RATE MATURITY CONSTANT TREASURY YEAR Jan-63 Jan-65 Jan-67 Jan-69 Jan-71 Jan-73 Jan-75 Jan-77 Jan-79 Jan-81 Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Source: Institute Supply of Management; Quandl.com, PolicySage Group; February 2020. CONTRACTING EXPANDING (PMI) Managers Institute Index of Supply Management: Purchasing THE ON DECLINE MANUFACTURING ECONOMY ECONOMY 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 50.9 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 FEDERAL DEFICIT AS PERCENT OF GDP United States 4 Surpluses 2 Over the 2021–2030 period, deficits are projected to average 0 4.8% of GDP, totaling $13.1 -2 trillion. -4 1969-2018 Avg.: 2.9% 1970-2019 Average: Over the past 50 -3.0% years, deficits -6 2021-2030 Deficits Average: averaged just 3.0% -4.8% o f G D P. -8 -10 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Source: Congressional Budget Office, Sage Policy Group; February 2020. Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Credit Fed Consumer Panel/Equifax,York NewSource: PolicySage FebruaryGroup; 2020. IN TRILLIONS United States HOUSEHOLD DEBT TOTAL $12 $15 $0 $3 $6 $9 Q1 2003 Q3 2003 Other Loan Student Card Credit Auto Loan Revolving HE Mortgage Q1 2004 Q3 2004 Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Q1 2008 Q3 2008 Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Q1 2016 Q3 2016 Q1 2017 Q3 2017 Q1 2018 Q3 2018 Q1 2019 Q3 2019 the Q22013 trough. debt 25.1% is above householdOverall trillion. 2008 of $12.7 in peak previous Q3 higher than the $1.3 now trillion for 5 and years are been rising steadily Debt balances have Source:Securities and FinancialIndustry Markets Association ( IN TRILLIONS OutstandingBond Debt Corporate United States HOW THIS? DID TO IT COME $10 $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 SIFMA 1988 1989 ), Federal ),Reserve, Policy Sage FebruaryGroup; 2020. 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 $9.2 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LABOR PRODUCTIVITY (PER HOUR) GROWTH United States 4 3 In Q3 2019 non-farm business sector 2 labor productivity fell by 0.2% — the 1 first decline since 2015. 0 -1 U.S. productivity has -2 risen at an average rate of 1.3% since ANNUALIZED QUARTERLY % CHANGE ANNUALIZED QUARTERLY -3 2007, compared with a 2.1% average -4 since the end of WWII. Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Sage Policy Group; February 2020. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES: Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 224.3 50 0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Source: 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis at www.PolicyUncertainty.com, Sage Policy Group; February 2020. Source: Robert J. Shiller Data used book,in his "Irrational Exuberance" Princeton University Press, Sage Policy Group; Febru Shiller Price PRICES: ASSET EYE ISON THE 10 20 30 40 50 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 - Earnings Ratio Earnings 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 ary 2020. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 30.91 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2019: Dec. 2014 30.91 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 THREE THINGS THAT DEFINE PREDICTION 1. Impossibly low inflation: How could one have seen this coming in the context of the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years, lackluster productivity growth, a robust consumer spending sector and the lengthiest expansion in U.S. history? 2. Incredibly low interest rates: How can global indebtedness be so high, and global interest rates so low? 3. The strength of the U.S. economy itself: How can the U.S. economy have been performing so well, and financial markets booming so splendidly in the context of fragmenting global trade, slower immigration, Brexit, impeachment, global warming, and other phenomena that one would think would be bad for domestic economic outcomes? Maybe, we’re not wrong? FORECAST The One • Risk of recession over the next 18 months is arguably more elevated than at any period since 2007 – second half of the year appears at least a bit tenuous as elections approach; • U.S.
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