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Growth Management Strategy (GMS) Was Prepared by WSP for the Township of Springwater (The Township)

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Growth Management Strategy (GMS) Was Prepared by WSP for the Township of Springwater (The Township) Contents 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 What is a Growth Management Strategy? ........................................................................................... 1 1.2 Why Update the Growth Management Strategy? .................................................................................. 1 1.3 Structure of the Growth Management Strategy .................................................................................. 1 2 Existing Policy Conditions ........................................................................................................ 2 2.1 Provincial Policy Context ...................................................................................................................... 2 2.2 County Policy Context ............................................................................................................................. 9 2.3 Township Policy Context .......................................................................................................................10 3 Study Parameters ....................................................................................................................... 12 3.1 Population and Employment Forecasts ................................................................................................12 3.2 Growth Plan Targets..............................................................................................................................16 3.3 Servicing Capacity .................................................................................................................................20 3.4 Employment Categories ........................................................................................................................25 4 Analysis of Residential Land ....................................................................................................... 29 4.1 Step 1: Township-wide Population and Dwelling Forecasts .................................................................29 4.2 Step 2: Forecasted Demand for Dwelling Units ....................................................................................30 4.3 Step 3: Estimated Residential Supply ....................................................................................................31 4.4 Step 4: Sufficiency of Residential Dwelling Supply ...............................................................................33 5 Analysis of Non-Residential Land for Employment ...................................................................... 35 5.1 Step 1: Township-wide Employment Forecasts ....................................................................................35 5.2 Step 2: Forecasted Land Consuming Employment Growth ..................................................................36 5.3 Step 3: Quantity of Designated Non-Residential Lands ........................................................................37 5.4 Step 4: Review of Employment Densities .............................................................................................38 5.5 Step 5: Sufficiency of Designated Non-Residential Lands for Employment..........................................39 6 Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................................ 42 6.1 Conclusions ...........................................................................................................................................42 6.2 Recommendations ................................................................................................................................46 6.3 Closing Remarks ....................................................................................................................................50 7 Glossary ..................................................................................................................................... 51 8 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 55 DRAFT | August 2018 i EXHIBITS Exhibit 1. Growth Plan Population & Employment Forecasts ............................................................................. 6 Exhibit 2. Population and Employment Forecasts (2016 – 2031) ......................................................................13 Exhibit 3. Growth Forecasts for Municipalities within the County of Simcoe ...................................................14 Exhibit 4. 2031 Population Forecasts for the City of Barrie, County of Simcoe and Township of Springwater 15 Exhibit 5. Settlement Areas and Associated Growth Plan Definitions ...............................................................17 Exhibit 6. Designated Greenfield Area Density Targets .....................................................................................19 Exhibit 7. Designated Greenfield Area Land Area ..............................................................................................20 Exhibit 8. Forecasted Water Demand ................................................................................................................21 Exhibit 9. Current and Future Water Storage Requirements ............................................................................22 Exhibit 10. Current and Future Waste Water Storage Requirements ...............................................................23 Exhibit 11. Outlooks on Springwater’s Servicing Capacity .................................................................................24 Exhibit 12. Employment Categorization Inputs .................................................................................................25 Exhibit 13a. Hillsdale OPA 37 Schedule A-7 (not approved) ..............................................................................27 Exhibit 13b. Characterization of Remaining Employment Serving Supply in Key Employment Areas ..............28 Exhibit 14. Population and Dwelling Unit Forecasts ..........................................................................................29 Exhibit 15. Projected Dwelling Unit Demand by Unit Type and Area in Springwater (2016 – 2031) ................30 Exhibit 16. Projected Dwelling Unit Demand (2016 – 2031) .............................................................................30 Exhibit 17. Average Dwelling Unit Density per Gross Hectare Assumptions on Uncommitted Land Supply ....31 Exhibit 18. Estimated Residential Dwelling Unit Supply ....................................................................................32 Exhibit 19. Summary of Annual Residential Demand and Dwelling Unit Supply by Unit Type to 2031 ............33 Exhibit 20. Resident Capacity Associated with Identified Designated Greenfield Area Dwelling Supply ..........34 Exhibit 21. Employment Forecasts .....................................................................................................................36 Exhibit 22. Projected Job Growth by Land Use Designation Category ..............................................................36 Exhibit 23. Designated Total Non-Residential Lands .........................................................................................37 Exhibit 24. Comparison of ES Employment Densities ........................................................................................38 Exhibit 25. Comparison of PS Employment Densities ........................................................................................39 Exhibit 26. Estimated Employment Capacity on Non-Residential Lands in Midhurst & Elmvale ......................40 Exhibit 27. Estimated Employment Capacity on Non-Residential Designated Greenfield Area Lands .............40 Exhibit 28. Summary of Demand on Residential and Non-Residential Land .....................................................42 Exhibit 29. Development Potential Summary ....................................................................................................43 Exhibit 30. Recommended Settlement Area Hierarchy .....................................................................................46 DRAFT | August 2018 ii Standard Limitations This Growth Management Strategy (GMS) was prepared by WSP for the Township of Springwater (the Township). This report is based on information provided to WSP which has not been independently verified. The disclosure of any information contained in this report is the sole responsibility of the Township. The material in this report and all information relating to this activity reflect WSP’s judgment in light of the information available to us at the time of preparation of this report. Any use which a third party makes of this report, or any reliance on or decisions to be made based on it, are the responsibility of such third parties. WSP accepts no responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by a third party as a result of decisions made or actions based on this report. WSP warrants that it performed services hereunder with that degree of care, skill, and diligence normally provided in the performance of such services in respect of projects of similar nature at the time and place those services were rendered. WSP disclaims all other warranties, representations, or conditions, either express or implied, including, without limitation, warranties, representations, or conditions of merchantability or
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