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THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036-2188 Tel: 202-797-6000 Fax: 202-797-6004 www.brookin gs.edu Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq www.brookings.edu/iraqindex September 27, 2007 For full source information for entries other than the current month, please see the Iraq Index archives at www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/iraq/indexarchive.htm Michael E. O’Hanlon Jason H. Campbell For more information please contact Jason Campbell at [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS Tracking the Surge Page U.S. Troops Committed to the Surge……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..5 Number of New U.S. Troops Deployed to Baghdad……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..5 Iraqi Troops in Baghdad: Actual Number Reported for Duty as a Percentage of Proper Battalion Strength……………………………………………...6 Current Disposition of Combat Forces in Iraq…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..6 Coalition and Iraqi Security Forces Operating in Baghdad and the “Belts” Surrounding Baghdad………………………………………………………..7 Number of Daily Attacks by Insurgents and Militias…………………………………………………………………………………………….….…...….......7 Enemy-Initiated Attacks Against the Coalition and Its Partners………………………………………………………………………………....………….....8 Iraqi Military and Police Killed since January 2005……………………………………………………………………………………………..………...……8 Number of Patrols Carried Out by U.S. and Iraqi Forces (Per Week)…………………………………………………………………………………………9 Number of Joint Security Stations Established by U.S. and Iraqi Forces in Baghdad………………………………………………………………………..9 Multiple Fatality Bombings in Iraq………………………………………………..………..…………………………………..……………..……..…………10 Killed and Wounded in Multiple Fatality Bombings………………………………………………………………………………..………………………….10 Multiple Fatality Bombings by Type Since January 2007…………………………………………………….………………………………………………..11 Detailed Breakdown of Deaths Associated with Multiple Fatality Bombings in Iraq……………………….…………………………………………..…...11 Number of Multiple Fatality Bombings Targeting Civilians by Sectarian Group and Month………………………………………………………………12 Estimated Number of Extrajudicial Killings (EJK’s) in Baghdad, by Month………………………………………………………………………………..12 Iraqi Civilians Killed By Violence …………………………………………………………….……………….…………..…………………………….………13 Estimated Number of Iraqi Civilians Killed by Month Since November 2006…………………………………..…………………………………………...14 Estimated Number of Iraqi Civilians Killed by Month Since January 2006, as reported by the U.S. Department of Defense…………………………...14 Number of Newly Displaced People Per Month in Iraq, Externally and Abroad…………………………………………..………………………………..14 Progress of Political Benchmarks Agreed upon by the bush Administration and the Iraqi Government………………………………………………….15 Other Noteworthy Political Developments………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………16 Effects of Operation Fardh al-Qanoon on Iraqi Provinces……………………………………………...……………………………………………………..16 Effects of External Actors on Iraqi Security…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….16 Security Indicators U.S. Troop Fatalities since March 2003…….………………………………………………..………………….………………………………………..….…17 Cause of Death for US Troops……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………18 American Military Fatalities by Category………………………………………………………………….….…………………………………..…….……...19 U.S. Troops Wounded in Action since March 2003……………………………..…………….……………………………….……………………….………19 British Military Fatalities since March 2003………………………………….……………….…………………….................................................................20 Non-U.S. & U.K. Coalition Military Fatalities since March, 2003……………..….…………………….……………………….……………………………20 Non-U.S. & U.K. Coalition Military Fatalities by Country since March 2003…….…………………………………………………………………………21 Car Bombs in Iraq (Lethal and Non-Lethal)………………………….…………………………………………………..…………………………………....21 Police and Civilian Deaths by Region…………………………………………………………………………………………..……………….………….……22 Non-Iraqi Civilian Casualties Killed Monthly since May 2003…………………..……………………………….....................................................................22 Journalists Killed in Iraq…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………..……………23 Nationalities of Journalists Killed in Iraq….……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……..23 Circumstances of Journalist Deaths……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..23 Iraqis Kidnapped……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………......…………..….…23 Iraqi Civilians Killed by US Troops……………………………………………………………………………………………………….………...…………..23 Foreign Nationals Kidnapped in Iraq since May 2003……………………………………………………………………………………………..….……….24 Iraqi Prison Population………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………………….…….…………25 Estimated Strength of Insurgency Nationwide…………………….……………………………………………………………………………………...…….26 Estimated Number of Foreign Fighters in the Insurgency ………………………………………………………………………………………………….…27 Nationalities of Foreign Militants in Iraq, September 2005……………………………………………………………………………………………………27 Coalition Troop Strength in Iraq ………….………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…28 Distribution of the Army’s Authorized End Strength, By Component and Function, Fiscal Year 2005……………………………..………..……….…..29 Attacks on Iraqi Oil and Gas Pipelines, Installations, & Personnel …………………………………………………………………………………....……..29 Top Ten Non-U.S. Coalition Contributors of Military Personnel in Iraq………………………………………..…………………………………….……..30 Number of Daily Insurgent Attacks by Province……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….30 U.S. Military Fatalities Caused by Improvised Explosive Devices…………………………………………………………………………………………….31 Number of Explosively Formed Projectile (EFP) Attacks Against U.S. Troops by Month………………………………………………………………….31 Improvised Explosive Devices (IED’s) Detonated And Disarmed January – June, 2006……………………………..………………………..……………32 Coalition Forces Ability to Find and Disarm Improvised Explosive Devises…………………………………………………………….……….…..…. …..32 Average Number of Daily Patrols in Baghdad………………………………………………………..……………………….………………………………..32 American Military Helicopters Downed in Iraq ……………………………………………………………………………….……………….……..….….…33 Internally Displaced Persons in Iraq…………………………………………………………………………………………….…..………….…………….…33 Migration Indicators………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………………….33 Refugees And Asylum Seekers……………………………………………………………………………………............…………………………….……..…33 Size of Iraqi Security Forces on Duty ………..……………………………………………………………………………………………………….…..……..34 Index of Political Freedom…………………………………………………………………………………………….……………….………………...….……35 Index of Press Freedom…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...35 Political Parties in Iraq………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………………..………..….…….36 Council Seats in New Iraqi Legislature……………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………..….……36 Current Membership & Status of Iraqi Cabinet………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..37 2 Economic & Quality of Life Indicators Fuel………….……………..……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….38 Oil Revenue from Exports……………………………………………………………………………………………………….…..…………….……………..39 Electricity………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…………………….……….….…………….40 Nationwide Unemployment Rate………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………………..……41 American Aid Appropriated, Obligated and Disbursed towards the Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund….…………..…………….……….………...42 Pledges of Reconstruction Aid to Iraq by Country, As of December 31, 2005……………………………………………………………………….……….43 Gross Domestic Product Estimates and Projections……………………………………………………..……………..………………………….……...……44 Annual Iraqi Budget and Actual Expenditures through August 2006………………………………………………………………………………………...44 Change in Iraq’s Debt, 2004 to 2006……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..44 Estimated Appropriations Provided for Operations in Iraq and the War on Terror; 2001-2007…………………………………………………………..45 Inflation………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………………….……………..45 Other Economic Indicators…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……..…………..………..46 Trained Judges……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……46 Telephone subscribers…………………..……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………..46 Internet subscribers……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………47 Media……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………………………..47 Doctors in Iraq………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………....………………….47 Number of Registered Cars………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………47 Current Water Projects Outputs Vs. CPA Goals……………………………………………………………………………………………………….…..…..48 Education Indicators – Enrollment……………………………………………………………………………………………….………...…………………...48 Polling/Politics Iraq: Where Things Stand 2007…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………49 Public Attitudes in Iraq: Four Year Anniversary of Invasion…………………………………………………………………………………………………53 September 27, 2006: World Opinion Poll.org – PIPA: The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq…………………………..……...….55 June 14 – 24, 2006: International Republican Institute……………………………………………………………....………………….…………….……….56 January 31, 2006: World Opinion Poll.org – What the Iraqi Public Wants…………………………………………………………………...……………..58 3 TRACKING THE SURGE Iraq at the End of July After a trip of 8 days one of us (O'Hanlon) took to Iraq this July, revisions are needed in some key numbers in the Iraq Index. This is in part because fresh data have recently become available, and in part because the U.S. military and Bush administration have not done a
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