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Quantification and Mitigation of the Impacts of Extreme Weather on Power System Resilience and Reliability

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Quantification and Mitigation of the Impacts of Extreme Weather on Power System Resilience and Reliability Quantification and Mitigation of the Impacts of Extreme Weather on Power System Resilience and Reliability A Thesis Submitted to Imperial College London For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy By Magnus Rory Jamieson Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering Control and Power Group EPSRC CDT in Future Power Networks and the Smart Grid Imperial College London 18 June 2020 Declaration This is to declare that: 1. The substantial material contained within this thesis is my own work. 2. All other work is appropriately referenced. Magnus Rory Jamieson Page | 2 Copyright The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Unless otherwise indicated, its contents are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence (CC BY). Under this licence, you may copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format for both commercial and non-commercial purposes. You may also create and distribute modified versions of the work. This on the condition that you credit the author. When reusing or sharing this work, ensure you make the licence terms clear to others by naming the licence and linking to the licence text. Where a work has been adapted, you should indicate that the work has been changed and describe those changes. Please seek permission from the copyright holder for uses of this work that are not included in this licence or permitted under UK Copyright Law. Page | 3 Abstract Modelling the impact of extreme weather on power systems is a computationally expensive, challenging area of study due to the diversity of threats, complicatedness of modelling, and data and simulation requirements to perform the relevant studies. The impacts of extreme weather – specifically wind – are considered. Factors such as the distribution of outage probability on lines and the potential correlation with wind power generation during storms are investigated; so too is sensitivity of security assessments involving extreme wind to the relationships used between failures and the natural hazard being studied, specifically wind speed. A large scale simulation ensemble is developed and demonstrated to investigate what are deemed the most significant features of power system simulation during extreme weather events. The challenges associated with modelling high impact low probability (HILP) events are studied and demonstrate that the results of security assessments are significantly affected by the granularity of incident weather data being used and the corrections or interpolation being applied to the source data. A generalizable simulation framework is formulated and deployed to investigate the significance of the relationship between incident natural hazards, in this case wind, and its corresponding impact on system resilience. Based on this, a large-scale simulation model is developed and demonstrated to take consideration of a wide variety of factors which can affect power systems during extreme weather events including, but not limited to, under frequency load shedding, line overloads, and high wind speed shutdown and its impact on wind generation. A methodology for quantifying and visualising distributed overhead line failure risk is also demonstrated in tandem with straightforward methods for making wind power projections over transmission systems for security studies. The potential correlation between overhead line risk and wind power generation risk is illustrated visually on representations of GB power networks based on real world data. Page | 4 Table of Contents List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................ 10 List of Tables ......................................................................................................................................... 13 Publications, Prizes, and Contributions ................................................................................................ 14 List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................. 15 List of Symbols ...................................................................................................................................... 18 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................... 19 Dedications ........................................................................................................................................... 20 Chapter 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 21 1.1 Motivations ................................................................................................................................. 21 1.1.1 Climate change means a more extreme, more variable planet........................................... 21 1.1.2 Understanding the importance of the data used in system security evaluations ............... 22 1.1.3 Understanding potential impact of decarbonisation on the power system security ... 23 1.1.4 Understanding the difference between reliability and resilience ................................ 23 1.1.5 Consequences of failures to prepare for high impact events ....................................... 24 1.1.6 Tackling issues of sustainability and resilience in the power system for remote communities ...................................................................................................................................................... 25 1.2 Scope and research questions .............................................................................................. 25 A. Data challenges associated with modelling weather-related impacts on power systems ... 26 B. Challenges associated with power system simulation during extreme weather events ..... 27 C. Quantifying and understanding the differences between reliability and resilience ............ 28 D. Improving resilience and reliability ....................................................................................... 28 E. Modelling the effects of climate change on the power system ........................................... 29 1.3 Primary areas of concern ............................................................................................................ 30 1.4 Novelty of work and thesis structure .......................................................................................... 30 Chapter 2 Review of relationships between climate, weather, resilience, reliability, and associated issues ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 33 2.2 Quantifying impact of extreme weather on power systems ...................................................... 33 2.3 Understanding resilience and reliability ..................................................................................... 41 2.3.1 Qualitative descriptions of reliability and resilience ............................................................ 41 2.3.2 Quantitative metrics for describing reliability and resilience .............................................. 44 2.3.3 Security standards for resilience and reliability ................................................................... 45 2.4 Modelling interactions between weather and the power system ............................................. 46 2.4.1 Quantifying failure rates on overhead lines due to wind .................................................... 47 2.4.2 Estimating wind power output from wind speeds .............................................................. 49 Page | 5 2.5 Modelling system perturbations ................................................................................................. 52 2.5.1 Overhead line faults ............................................................................................................. 52 2.5.2 Loss of infeed and generation faults .................................................................................... 53 2.5.3 Frequency response regimes ............................................................................................... 55 2.5.4 Sources of frequency response ............................................................................................ 57 2.5.5 Demand response ................................................................................................................ 59 2.6 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 62 Chapter 3 A simulation framework to investigate the effect of extreme wind on a power system and sensitivity to weather-fault relationships ............................................................................................. 63 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 64 3.2 Simulation Frameworks .............................................................................................................. 65 3.3 Implementation of simulation framework and description of components .............................. 69 3.3.1 Network Builder module
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