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Climate Change Adaptation for Seaports and Airports

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Climate Change Adaptation for Seaports and Airports Climate change adaptation for seaports and airports Mark Ching-Pong Poo A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of Liverpool John Moores University for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy July 2020 Contents Chapter 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 20 1.1. Summary ...................................................................................................................... 20 1.2. Research Background ................................................................................................. 20 1.3. Primary Research Questions and Objectives ........................................................... 24 1.4. Scope of Research ....................................................................................................... 24 1.5. Structure of the thesis ................................................................................................. 26 Chapter 2 Literature review ............................................................................................. 29 2.1. Summary ...................................................................................................................... 29 2.2. Systematic review of climate change research on seaports and airports ............... 29 2.2.1. Methodology of literature review .............................................................................. 29 2.2.2. Analysis of studies ....................................................................................................... 31 2.2.3. Trend of study ............................................................................................................. 31 2.2.4. Distribution by journals ............................................................................................. 32 2.2.5. Distribution by authors .............................................................................................. 32 2.2.6. Distribution by regions ............................................................................................... 33 2.2.7. Distribution by transportation modes ....................................................................... 34 2.2.8. Distribution by research scales .................................................................................. 35 2.2.9. Distribution by research types ................................................................................... 35 2.2.10. Distribution by research methods.............................................................................. 36 2.2.11. Distribution by research interests.............................................................................. 37 2.2.12. Evolution of the studies ............................................................................................... 39 2.2.13. Discussion on climate change adaptation one seaports and airports ..................... 43 2.3. Review of multiple-criteria decision analysis .......................................................... 44 Chapter 3 Climate change risk indicator framework for seaports and airports ......... 49 3.1. Summary ...................................................................................................................... 49 3.2. Review for Climate change risk indicators ............................................................... 49 3.2.1. Review of climate vulnerability assessment on seaports.......................................... 49 3.2.2. Review of climate change adaptation reports ........................................................... 51 3.2.3. Review of open climate data in the United Kingdom ............................................... 60 3.3. Formulation of the Climate change risk indicator framework .............................. 62 2 3.4. Climate change risk indicator assessment by the Fuzzy evidence reasoning approach ................................................................................................................................ 63 3.4.1. Step 1: Defining the Climate change risk indicator hierarchy ................................ 64 3.4.2. Step 2: Setting the criterion grades ........................................................................... 66 3.4.3. Step 3: Evaluating seaports and airports using climate data .................................. 68 3.4.4. Step 4: Transforming the evaluation from the lowest level to top-level criteria ... 69 3.4.5. Step 5: Synthesising all evaluations by the Evidential reasoning algorithm.......... 69 3.5. Demonstration by selected seaports and airports .................................................... 70 3.5.1. Comparison between locations and seasons for seaports ........................................ 70 3.5.2. Comparison between months for seaports ................................................................ 72 3.5.3. Comparison between now and future for seaports .................................................. 74 3.5.4. Comparison between locations and seasons for airports ......................................... 75 3.5.5. Comparison between months for airports ................................................................ 77 3.5.6. Comparison between now and future for airports ................................................... 78 3.6. Comparative analysis on seaports and airports by Climate change risk indicator framework .............................................................................................................................. 80 3.7. Discussion..................................................................................................................... 81 Chapter 4 An advanced Climate resilience indicator framework for seaports and airports 83 4.1. Summary ...................................................................................................................... 83 4.2. Review for Climate resilience indicators .................................................................. 83 4.2.1. Review of regional climate vulnerability assessment ............................................... 83 4.2.2. Review of defining climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity ............... 85 4.2.3. Review of open regional and logistic data in the United Kingdom ......................... 86 4.3. Climate resilience indicator assessment by the Fuzzy evidential reasoning approach ................................................................................................................................. 89 4.3.1. Defining the Climate resilience indicator hierarchy ................................................ 89 4.3.2. Defining the assessment grades .................................................................................. 91 4.3.3. Evaluating seaports and airports using climate data ............................................... 93 4.3.4. Evaluating seaports and airports by indicators from the lowest level to top-level criteria 93 4.3.5. Synthesizing all evaluations using the Evidential reasoning algorithm ................. 93 4.4. Demonstration by selected seaports and airports .................................................... 93 4.5. Comparative analysis on seaports and airports by relative weights ...................... 95 3 4.5.1. Top-level factors .......................................................................................................... 95 4.5.2. Exposure factors .......................................................................................................... 95 4.5.3. Sensitivity factors ........................................................................................................ 96 4.5.4. Adaptive capacity factors ........................................................................................... 96 4.6. Comparative analysis on seaports and airports by advanced Climate resilience indicator framework .............................................................................................................. 96 4.7. Discussion..................................................................................................................... 98 Chapter 5 Centrality assessment ...................................................................................... 99 5.1. Summary ...................................................................................................................... 99 5.2. Review for centrality assessment ............................................................................... 99 5.2.1. Vulnerability and resilience ....................................................................................... 99 5.2.2. Centrality assessment in maritime transportation ................................................. 101 5.2.3. Climate vulnerability assessment for coastal cities ................................................ 101 5.3. Centrality assessment framework ........................................................................... 102 5.3.1. Multi-centrality indicator ......................................................................................... 103 5.4. Demonstration of centrality assessment.................................................................. 106 5.4.1. Structuring the global shipping network and data collection ............................... 106 5.4.2. Modelling of the global shipping network .............................................................. 108 5.4.3. Multiple centrality assessment ................................................................................
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