<<

REPORT APRIL, 2ND 2020

CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE MISINFORMATION ABOUT THE AS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR

Nicolás de Pedro Senior Fellow, The Institute for Statecraft

www.seguridadycultura.org @InstitutoSyC

INDEX

1 INTRODUCTION Page. 4

2 WHY THE MISINFORMATION Page. 6 IS A STRATEGIC THREAT TO DEMOCRACIES

3 MISINFORMATION AND INTERNALIZATION OF Page. 12 THE CATALONIAN INDEPENDENCE PROCESS

4 TEN KEY ASPECTS TO UNDERSTAND THE Page. 17 MISINFORMATION STRATEGY OF THE CATALONIAN SEPARATISM www.seguridadycultura.org @InstitutoSyC

1 INTRODUCTION

The misinformation is a strategic challenge for Spain. It is an ordinary and increasing problem that affects all the democracies that are based on open informative ecosystems, even though it has in each present context its own special features and characteristics. Perhaps, information and communication do not directly save lives, but, certainly, it can be stated that the misinformation causes victims and shall make this crisis we are facing costlier and more difficult. The coronavirus threatens to take thousands of citizens’ lives and it will test as ruthless our economic, political and social resilience.

Misinforming is to intentionally spread wrong, manipulated or biased information with hostile purposes. The purposefulness is the key element to differentiate the erroneous, wrong information or such wrongly spread unconsciously. The Posted on ’s account on 14th, March 2020. popular concept fake news shall refer to both, but the excessive use of such term -used also by several political leaders as a synonym of any critical information for them- has distorted its as the current one when the spreading of unfounded usage. If there is misinformation, the information rumors, misinformation campaigns or large and communication turn into a weapon. And that influence and propaganda operations are multiplied. happens in the domestic political disputes as well as in geostrategic confrontations of wide range. and Russia are offering these days good Both dynamics may, and usually do, converge and examples of all those; however, until now, with coincide, making the response difficult for such significant differences. Thus, whereas the Russian societies suffering it. Those who misinform normally misinformation is mainly disruptive and attempts take advantage of the preexisting vulnerabilities and to confuse, worry, polarize, paralyze or neutralize use the crisis opportunity to maximize its impact. strategically those considered its opponent, It is not by chance that, therefore, it is during times China seems to bet on the search of the narrative

4 CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE MISINFORMATION ABOUT THE CATALAN NATIONALISM AS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR SPAIN Nicolás de Pedro www.seguridadycultura.org @InstitutoSyC

“The interview granted by the Generalitat President, Quim Torra, to the worldwide service of the BBC on March 19, is a good example, but just one more among such proposal that, as known, it attempts to discredit the Spanish democracy besides longing for the separatist “process internationalization”

supremacy and the tale control with a more granted by the Generalitat President, Quim Torra, ambitious and of a wider range proposal. Beijing to the worldwide service of the BBC on March 19, has been prepared to take advantage of the is a good example, but just one more among such uneasiness of some European administrations and proposal that, as known, it attempts to discredit such of the European Union facing the coronavirus the Spanish democracy besides longing for the to try to change the main tale about the pandemic separatist “process internationalization”. It is not a and to create enough confusion and noise as to temporary matter or something that only has to be bury the origin of the crisis in Wuhan. The narrative with Torra or a nationalist leader, but a structured link between the sanitary products sending to Spain and strategic matter. As a result, once the critical and the new Silk Road project is, probably, a good phase of the coronavirus pandemic is overcome, indicator to see how this matter shall develop. such matter shall be addressed without any extremes, but profoundly. Otherwise, the territorial Guiding ourselves by such same logic and using and constitutional order burst in Spain, medium and similar methods -with such not presupposing long term, is not, at all, an unbelievable scene. operative nor of calendar alignment- a part of the Catalan nationalism has shown its intention to take advantage of the coronavirus crisis to make progress in the separatist project. The interview

CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE MISINFORMATION ABOUT THE CATALAN NATIONALISM AS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR SPAIN 5 Nicolás de Pedro www.seguridadycultura.org @InstitutoSyC

WHY THE MISINFORMATION IS A STRATEGIC THREAT 2 TO DEMOCRACIES

6 CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE MISINFORMATION ABOUT THE CATALAN NATIONALISM AS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR SPAIN Nicolás de Pedro www.seguridadycultura.org @InstitutoSyC

The misinformation phenomenon is not new. Political hoaxing and mind control are as old as ourselves. It is not either new the attempt of those who unlawfully hold the power to control the political statement. The art, representation and symbolic ritualization resource or the creation of a grand narrative or general framework that explain and legalize such power and social order and its holding over time are as valid now as in the ancient Mesopotamia.

The legitimization sources, develop over time and what is specific and distinguishing of the current reality is the digital revolution, that has radically changed, among other aspects, our informative and communication ecosystems. Smartphones position the information and communication in the center of the daily activity of the majority of the citizens, that behaves as a receptor and as a transmission vector.

The social networks, instant messaging applications and technological giants as Google growth has caused, on the one hand, the erosion of the traditional media business model and, with that, also such of the professional screening and its role as guardian of the access to the public conversation. On the other hand, even that the dissolution of such access barriers democratizes this same public conversation and allows to access to an incredible volume of information and knowledge that was Posted on the former Vice President of the Generalitat and former before unimaginable, it does also make it easier President of ERC Josep-Lluís Carod Rovira’s Twitter account. for the massive information spreading without any publishing responsibility and for the control of the communication flow.

“The dissolution of such access barriers also makes it easier for the massive information spreading without any publishing responsibility and for the control of the communication flow”

CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE MISINFORMATION ABOUT THE CATALAN NATIONALISM AS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR SPAIN 7 Nicolás de Pedro www.seguridadycultura.org @InstitutoSyC

such as the free information flow or the European In other words, it offers extraordinary beneficial companies open and diverse character, into a opportunities, but also many chances and ease to a possible strategic vulnerability. spiteful use of the network. And, probably, the worst is still to come. Proliferation Twitter, , YouTube, WhatsApp or Telegram of deepfakes -rather videos or audios recorded with apparently makes it easier for a larger citizenship artificial intelligence more and more realistic every involvement in public debates and are a distinctive time, difficult to guess and cheaper to produce- may element of the current media ecosystem. mean that we esteem the current misinformation Nevertheless, in practice, algorithms and the using as far as we see wars with bows and arrows. Fake of these platforms seems to decisively contribute videos made by artificial intelligence may have legal to the polarization, the echo chamber effect and purposes -for example, in the audiovisual industry- the emotional and visual supremacy over logic and but it is easy to suspect its explosive and potentially factual accuracy. It is that way created a propitious devastating consequences in the political and environment to transform democratic strengths, international relationships field if it’s making and broadcasting is not regulated.

It is convenient to not forget that there are no borders on the Internet. At least not in the democratic countries’ virtual environment. There are not either many rules or standards and rules implementation of the brick and mortar world. Once again, the Internet can be used for righteous purposes -collaborative research to get a vaccine against coronavirus, for example- as well as for damaging purposes -unfounded rumors and conspiratorial theories spreading, following the same example-.

Specially, social networks offer free access to the Retweet from the former President of Catalonian Parliament Núria de Gispert’s Twitter account. heart of liberal democracies. They allow to access immediately to a massive audience, with low cost and low risks, as the responsibility, normally, is unknown and makes it easier for state and not state actors to act, in many cases, under the response threshold of occidental democracies. An aspect that, in the strategic competition context that we are now deep into, will keep increasing in the next years. Thus, we have recently seen Russia follow specific tactical objectives, as, for example, creating enough noise and confusion that complicate research as well as the debate about the MH17 flight demolition in Ukraine in July 2014- as well as strategic objectives -erode the legitimacy of the European democratic Posted on Joan Coma i Roura’s Twitter account, city councillor of systems or put a strain on their companies inciting, Vic from CUP. for example, the migratory matter, cultural wars

8 CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE MISINFORMATION ABOUT THE CATALAN NATIONALISM AS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR SPAIN Nicolás de Pedro www.seguridadycultura.org @InstitutoSyC

or secessionist motivations. Will China apply or is applying a similar perspective to face the international image and legitimacy caused by the coronavirus pandemic starting in Wuhan?

In theory, Russia and China, with authoritarian systems that exert a strict control over the information and communication in their domestic field, seem less vulnerable to that phenomenonand more when it comes to the conceived and executed actions from the outer. Besides, even that Moscow and Beijing are sincerely convinced otherwise, the Western world, and in no event the EU, applies an “information warfare” perspective or of influence operations that is minimally close to the predominant view in the Russian and Chinese strategic communities nor to the possibilities offered in the open informative ecosystems in the Western world. For example, do the leaders in the EU or the United Posted on independentist Mark Serra’s Twitter account, who has a State have any channel similar to Twitter too, without big number of followers. Beijing mediating, reach the Chinese audience inside China?

Misinformation is, obviously, not Russian or Chinese heritage. However, it is convenient to keep in mind the current geopolitical environment characterized by the strategic competition between big powers when analyzing such phenomenon. The EU and the Member States have been progressively becoming aware of such challenge. The problem has been preferably conceived regarding the trustworthiness of the several electoral processes opposite to the Russian interference, and it was trying to circumscribe such matter to the truthfulness of the information in circulation sphere. In practice, it has turned into the fact-checking development and the creation of a good practices code about the misinformation for the digital platforms and advertising. This point of view and the European response are excessively reductionist and, therefore, problematic.

Fact-checking shall be a part of the response to the misinformation challenge and the deterioration of the Post on a French Catalonian independentist’s Twitter account in information ecosystem, but it shall not be the sole response to Quim Torra, President of the Generalitat, in which the response. spread of Covid-19 is related to the Guardia Civil and a massive infection from Madrid.

CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE MISINFORMATION ABOUT THE CATALAN NATIONALISM AS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR SPAIN 9 Nicolás de Pedro www.seguridadycultura.org @InstitutoSyC

The data verification contributes to create a plentiful and unquestionable evidence body to discredit the credibility of those who create misinformation and also helps to legitimate the democratic state’s response. Nevertheless, verification normally focuses exclusively on the tactical objectives of the ones spreading the misinformation, but it does not address not has any effect on the prevention of the strategic impact or the creation of a dissuasive ability. In this way, the EU and the Member States are doing a series of informative battles, but with no strategic management nor certainty about the aims to follow.

In that way, the European point of view usually assesses the individual impact of misinformation campaigns calculating what can be calculated (likes, retweets, created traffic or even votes in a certain election), but is not aware of the cumulative and the sedimentary effect of the misinformation that either progressively laminates the social trust and consensus needed to enjoy a strong and healthy democratic system or it creates parallel informative ecosystems. The big difficulty comes from how that impact can be measured, if possible, and from how to prevent in the information scope, without Post on Òmnium Cultural’s official Twitter account despising the furthermore erode the freedom of expression, the free Emergency Army Unit deployment to help against the pandemic. information flow or how to encourage the creation of truth departments. The epistemic link between the factual accuracy, the facts, interpretation and the truth concept is, as we know, complicated.

“It is not by chance that, therefore, it is during times as the current one when the spreading of unfounded rumors, misinformation campaigns or large influence and propaganda operations are multiplied”

10 CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE MISINFORMATION ABOUT THE CATALAN NATIONALISM AS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR SPAIN Nicolás de Pedro www.seguridadycultura.org @InstitutoSyC

In the same way, as it is already well documented , fact-checking, misinformation and unfounded rumors spread at completely different speeds and plans. That is, it is not only that the disproving is late -it is always easier, faster and cheaper to saturate the environment with fake information than to disprove it- or that the person misinforming sets the agenda for the verifier. It is even worst, as the person misinforming and the fact-checker, normally, reach different audiences and that barely interact. It is, partially, a result of this same segmentation and creation of echo chambers that have been caused by the social networks themselves.

Besides, as a special Spanish feature, even that is not exclusive, the politicization, on a party sense, of this same activity ends by turning the verification of unfounded rumors into part of the problem and not of the solution. Thus, paraphrasing the famous joke about post-truth and the weather information, we find a fact-checking for the left and another one for the right, when being an activity that should be noticed and done as impartially and ideologically aseptic as possible.

Post on a Twitter account replicating the “Telegram’s chat to share news, debates and activities from the people and from ”.

CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE MISINFORMATION ABOUT THE CATALAN NATIONALISM AS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR SPAIN 11 Nicolás de Pedro www.seguridadycultura.org @InstitutoSyC

MISINFORMATION AND INTERNALIZATION OF 3 THE CATALONIAN INDEPENDENCE PROCESS

12 CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE MISINFORMATION ABOUT THE CATALAN NATIONALISM AS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR SPAIN Nicolás de Pedro www.seguridadycultura.org @InstitutoSyC

The procés (Catalonian process) cannot be understood without its informative aspect. And a big part of the aforementioned aspects has been reproduced in the last decade in Catalonia to a greater or lesser degree, although with its own specifications. Catalonia is living an unprecedented phenomenon of institutional disobedience from the inside and outside of the democratic State to which it belongs to and fights with. The procés has been full of simulation, imposture and ambiguity, but if something is confirmed in the last lustrum is that fake news creates real effects.

The mater comes, nevertheless, from a long ago. Catalonian nationalism has motivated, since the transition to democracy, a national structuring process with an all-inclusive purpose. As a result, forty years later, there is an overwhelming political and cultural supremacy of the nationalism in the institutions, media, educational and cultural Catalonian tissue. Hence the political division -at least regarding the independence matter- and fragmentation reflected in the successive election results in Catalonia remains invisible in the public The official Catalan Generalitat Twitter account highlighted a and communicative scope. The repeated refusal to statement in which Quim Torra told the BBC that the Spanish Government hadn’t declared the national lockdown. such division by the nationalism, the insistence in mottos such as “sol poble” (a sole nation), the effort to monopolize the public area with yellow bows of the patrimonialization of the concept and the Catalonian identity admit several interpretations. As much in not recognizing the plurality as the efforts to unquestionably exercise the predominance reached after decades of national structuring.

“The procés has been full of simulation, imposture and ambiguity, but if something is confirmed in the last lustrum is that fake news creates real effects”

CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE MISINFORMATION ABOUT THE CATALAN NATIONALISM AS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR SPAIN 13 Nicolás de Pedro www.seguridadycultura.org @InstitutoSyC

Such predominance nurtures itself promoting and financing related people and progressively expelling the distant ones. It is that way built a clientelist system or “haze independent social economy”, according to what was stated on a recent article of newspaper about the Institut Nova Història, a paradigmatic example of this dynamic. Step by step, a hegemonic speech and a parallel or alternative information and communication ecosystem is created in regard to such of the rest of Spain. The public media as TV3 (TV channel in Catalonia) or, the broadcasting in Catalonia, Catalunya Ràdio play an important role in the articulation of such nationalist narrative that is unquestioned and full of damage and continuous victimhood compared to a Spain characterized as authoritarian, coarse, aggressive and hostile. And it is not only about the informative and research area. It is a tale that permeates the its own production areas and it seems obvious in famous humor programs such as Polònia or APM. To avoid misunderstandings, it is not a coarse imposition from upper management, but a natural and standardized result of such nationalist discussion hegemony. These media importance is indisputable. Nationalists Posted on Internal Affairs regional minister of Generalitat’s Twitter themselves consider TV3 as a “State structure”. The account insisting that Spain has not adopted strong measures and pointing out Catalonia as a different country. public lament of columnists and nationalist people giving their opinion is common regarding those who do not consume “culture and media from the country”.

From the information and communications point of view, the consolidation of blocked communities benefits the polarization and is a vulnerability that -as happened in October 2017 and has happened since then- can be utilized by foreign actors. The Russian interference, to a large extent, is still a history to write, but, probably, it is only a matter of time that its details and some later concealment operations come to light. For the time being, it keeps being a controversial matter in the public and journalistic Posted on Twitter account of the former Education regional minister discussion, but not in the State range. The massive of Generalitat and actual Member of European Parliament, Clara activity in social networks in those days, the express Ponsatí, the 15th March about the Madrid’s deaths by coronavirus. hostile coverage and the role of some important political actors is measurable, traceable, evident and provides an object of indisputable empirical

14 CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE MISINFORMATION ABOUT THE CATALAN NATIONALISM AS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR SPAIN Nicolás de Pedro www.seguridadycultura.org @InstitutoSyC

evidence. What actually admits several legitimate inappropriate. We need to insist on the fact that what interpretations is the motivation, the reached impact is relevant is the cumulative and the sedimentary and the specific objectives followed by the Kremlin effect of the misinformation with respect to the and his actors separated from such campaign. There Spanish democracy (objective of the independence is a research in process with the National Audience movement) undermining, but also to the whole of the about the GRU, Russian military intelligence, agents’ EU (objective of the Kremlin campaigns). That is why activities in , during these decisive days. the analysis of why this interference is happening Regarding what is last stated, it is to preliminarily cannot be separated from the European geopolitical note that the rank and profile of the main identified context, characterized by the EU and the NATO agent suggest that the Kremlin considered several tension with Russia as a result of its undercover possible scenes and results for the Catalonian crisis military intervention in Ukraine since 2014. It is to back then. say, to address this matter regarding only a local perspective simply does not allow understanding. Two notes regarding the impact of the interference And either facing the future. in the media and social network scope. When it comes to evaluating it, the same reductionist The Torra’s interview with the BBC keeps trying approach described above is normally used. That to appeal to the outside mediation. That way, it is is to say, focused on tactics and conjunctions moved from an internal conflict among Catalonian asking if it was reflected in the participation or the people to a matter between Catalonia and Spain number of votes. Regarding the illegal nature of understood as two separate organizations and under that referendum and, especially, the absence of a sovereign equality. Obviously, living a pandemic, minimal democratic guarantee, it seems completely the practical impact resulting from this interview or the letters sent by Torra to the members of the European Council is, simply, none. It may even be counterproductive form him and his team and, regarding what some people note, that a higher international exposure is positive as so that will make them retract reading such audiences. It is a possibility, but again, the accumulative effect of such communication shall be kept in mind and it shall be attempted to foresee its impact on a several year view. The efficacy of the Spanish diplomacy until today shall not invite to lower one’s guard and not either to undervalue the importance of the international public opinion, where the independence tale has strongly penetrated.

What seems to be clear is that the matter will not be solved by fact-checking. When Torra says on the BBC on the 19th of March, that the Madrid government blocks the confinement in Catalonia -even that he was himself talking about his confinement and that in the screen is superimposed “Spain has been in Posted on Twitter comparing the crowds on supermarkets because nearly in total lockdown since Saturday”[15th of May]- of the coronavirus crisis, differencing in between “redneck” does not mean that the reality is unknown, it means customers of a Spanish brand and the civilized of a Catalonian one. that it simply does not matter. Likewise, the impact

CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE MISINFORMATION ABOUT THE CATALAN NATIONALISM AS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR SPAIN 15 Nicolás de Pedro www.seguridadycultura.org @InstitutoSyC

of the interview and Torra and other members of his Government’s words about an important part of the Catalonian nationalism shall not be undervalued. To confirm it, we just need to look on Twitter these days and verify, on the one hand, the consensus created between activists and looked up to and respectable academicians of nationalist feeling regarding the “recentralization” or the “undercover 155 article” as the only response from the State against the coronavirus. And, on the other hand, how deep has a speech about hispanophobe hate leaving a mark in a not insignificant part of this independence movement, nurtured now by the theory that the coronavirus “comes from and is Madrid’s fault”, about a State that does not care about the “Catalonian deaths” or that, simply, with “independence, there would be less dead people”. The sending of letters by a parastatal institution such as the Asamblea Nacional Catalana (ANC) to the consuls settled in Barcelona blaming “the people of Madrid for the spread of the coronavirus” and accusing the Guardia Civil of “retaining and requisitioning” medical equipment Posted on Junts Per Catalonia’s spokesman at the Spanish with destiny to Igualada -one of the main focus of Parliament’s Twitter account criticizing the participation of Spanish Nacional Police and the Army deployment to help against the the pandemic in Catalonia- shows how the Generalitat pandemic. is trying to fix an insidious conspiracy narrative in the nationalist imaginary that can poison civic coexistence, while trying to spread it internationally.

Now, with everyone -or at least those lucky ones- confined at home, it can seem simple Twitter excess. Its impact in the cohabitation in Catalonia in the medium and long terms is to be seen. If the number of deaths keeps increasing and the economic impact is as savage as some projections foresee, there is no room for the optimism. In fact, if the described framework and dynamics are not modified, what we need to think is if time and demography play in favor of Spain or the independence movement.

Posted on the Twitter account of th Digital Politics regional minister of the Generalitat, Jordi Puigneró, identifying the alarm state with the application of the 155 article of the Spanish Constitution.

16 CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE MISINFORMATION ABOUT THE CATALAN NATIONALISM AS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR SPAIN Nicolás de Pedro www.seguridadycultura.org @InstitutoSyC

TEN KEY ASPECTS TO UNDERSTAND THE MISINFORMATION STRATEGY OF THE CATALONIAN SEPARATISM

It is in the report analyzed how the misinformation strategy of the Catalonian separatism has been running, which has been intensified in the last days with the sanitary crisis.

1. Forty years of process of “national structuring” have created a political and cultural supremacy at an institutional, media and educational level.

2. Silencing of the political fragmentation and division in Catalonia.

3. Monopolization of the public area with yellow bows and other campaigns.

4. Clientelist system with financing for the related people.

5. Main role of the public media such as TV3 (Catalonian TV channel) or Catalunya Ràdio (Catalonian radio broadcasting) as “State structures”.

6. Articulation of an ubiquitous victimhood narrative regarding Spain.

7. Permanent characterization of Spain as “authoritarian, coarse, aggressive and hostile” in the whole of in-house production including the humor programs (Polònia, APM).

8. Delegitimization about the Spanish democracy and appeal to the outside mediation to create a conflict “between Catalonia and Spain”.

9. Promoting of a hate speech related to the coronavirus as a pandemic that “comes from and is Madrid’s fault”, since the State does not care about the “Catalonian deaths”.

10. Accumulative and eroding effect of the misinformation and the hegemony nationalist discursive.

CORONAVIRUS CRISIS: THE MISINFORMATION ABOUT THE CATALAN NATIONALISM AS A STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR SPAIN 17 Nicolás de Pedro www.seguridadycultura.org

@InstitutoSyC