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www.africa-confidential.com 13 October 2000 Vol 41 No 20 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL SUDAN 2 SUDAN Duel in Khartoum The NIF still gets foreign mileage No room at the Security Council from the much-hyped dispute The NIF regime fails to shed its pariah status after its bruising battle between President Bashir and NIF to win support at the United Nations ideologue Turabi. At home the quarrel has taken on its own As we went to press, Sudanese were still celebrating Khartoum’s failure to get elected to the United momentum and now threatens the Nations Security Council on 10 October. This is the same Council which imposed sanctions on the Islamist government. National Islamic Front government in 1996 for its role in the assassination attempt against Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak at the Organisation of African Unity summit in Ethiopia (AC Vol 41 No CONGO-KINSHASA 3 13). The NIF (now officially the National Congress but still called NIF) badly wanted the seat, in the hope that it would give it international respectability to go with its new-found oil wealth, which Dropping Kabila has been drawing European and Asian businesses to Khartoum. It contrived to get itself proposed Secret discussions between by the OAU as Africa’s candidate, won Arab League support and portrayed itself as a victim of regional leaders in Kampala, Kigali, United States’ imperialism. Luanda and Paris hold the best In Africa, only Uganda publicly opposed it, although many states said privately they would vote hope for peace in Congo-Kinshasa. against Khartoum. In February, NIF founder Hassan Abdullah el Turabi had boasted that Their common theme is growing Khartoum had ‘financed elections which were won by African Muslim presidents while the stupid impatience with President Kabila and his continuing obstruction of people of the West were not aware.’ In the UN contest, Mauritius won in four rounds by 113 to 55. the peace process. Angola is now The Security Council will not after all be chaired by Sudan’s UN Ambassador, El Fatih Mohamed paying for most military operations Ahmed Erwa, a former security major who was in Juba in 1992 at the height of government in support of Kabila. atrocities against civilians. The NIF works hard to get onto UN committees and includes the UN Human Rights Commission NIGERIA 5 in its tally. Strategic too is its membership of the Arab League Interior Ministers’ working group on ‘unconventional crime’, as the League calls computer crime and online political opposition, A military makeover terrorist or otherwise. Few question President Obasanjo’s knowledge of and Manipulating Egypt standing within the military. Two Even the NIF can’t manipulate everything and Sudanese now speak more openly than since its 1989 years ago he said that 90 per cent coup. Events are moving faster than it can control but this does not mean it is about to collapse. It of training officers joined the could, if the Yugoslavs have caught the Sudanese imagination enough, but the NIF is very different military for a political career. That would have to change if Nigeria from the regimes of General Ibrahim Abboud or Gen. Ja’afar Mohamed Nimeiri, which civilians were to move forward, he said. overthrew in 1964 and 1985. It will fight for the survival of its Islamist vision - and itself. Now there are signs that some of The NIF knows change means the end of its Islamism and is sucking individual politicians into his ideas are beginning to work. deals. However, the popular mood is not one of compromise and it is still feared the NIF may fight to the finish. Abroad, it will accentuate the charm campaign of which the failed UNSC bid was a SOUTH AFRICA 6 part. It will also try harder to appear as peacemaker, emphasising its talks with the Sudan People’s Liberation Army under the auspices of the Inter-Governmental Authority for Development and with Policemen plod on the opposition National Democratic Alliance. Having used Egypt, opponent of southern self- determination, as a stick to beat the NDA with, it has manoeuvred the NDA into agreeing to talk South Africans feel unsafe. Fear of crime demoralises people and about a ‘comprehensive settlement’ and hopes to vacuum up more of the Alliance’s disparate pieces. is a major cause of emigration. In Asmara this month, President Omer Hassan Ahmed el Beshir met NDA Chairman Mohamed High expectations therefore attach Osman el Mirghani, hoping both to tempt the Democratic Unionist Party chief on board (as it to the first black Commissioner of tempted his old Umma Party rival El Sadig Sideeg el Mahdi) and to demonstrate abroad, in time for Police, Jackie Selebi and the gung- the UN vote, that the NIF was keen to talk to the opposition. We hear Omer wanted to get Maulana ho Minister for Safety and Security Steve Tshwete. on his own but the DUP boss insisted on President Issayas Afeworki’s presence at their 50-minute meeting. (The Eritrean President’s current flirtation with Khartoum included a three-day visit just before the UN vote.) POINTERS 8 The NIF seemed taken aback when Mohamed Osman brought along a high-level NDA delegation, including such adamant political secularists as Brigadier Gen. Abdel Aziz Khalid Osman (Sudan Cameroon, Libya, Alliance Forces), Pagan Amon (SPLA) and urbane barrister Mansour Khalid, once Nimeiri’s Egypt and Zambia Foreign Minister and now representing the SPLA while staying close to the DUP. He helps to Pride of Lions; racist rage; maintain the crucial dialogue between the SPLA boss, Colonel John Garang de Mabior, and the democratic deficit; laying off hands. DUP, a link the NIF longs to break. 13 October 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 20

Duel in Khartoum The National Islamic Front still gets foreign mileage from the much ● 4 Jan 2000: Turabi says he has refused offer to chair party. hyped dispute between President Omer el Beshir and chief ideologue ● 6 Jan: NIF National Congress denies trying to expel Turabi as Hassan el Turabi. At home, the quarrel has taken on its own leader. momentum and threatens the Islamist government. A quick survey of ● Egypt endorses Omer against Turabi; so do other Arab states, some key dates shows: no ideological gap between the two; an attempt apparently including Saudi Arabia. to show Omer as traditional military ruler to Turabi’s fanatic; the NIF ● 16 Jan: Turabi ‘fears’ Omer ‘is heading for centralised and hardcore is with Omer (in effect, their figurehead); a real power- dictatorial rule’. struggle (AC passim) was highly stage-managed; and, unused to such ● 24 Jan: NIF announces compromise. subtleties, an angry factionalised NIF rank-and-file is causing real ● Eritrea and Uganda report normalising relations with Sudan; problems. Enter Turabi, elderly NIF ‘Emir’, and President Omer, Egypt and United Arab Emirates back Omer. public face of Turabi’s middle-aged rival and deputy, Vice-President ● After mediation, Turabi says dispute is over. Ali Osman. [AC comments in square brackets]. Key events: ● New Leadership Council packed with veteran Islamists. ● December 1998: Senior NIF hardliners, including security supremo ● 25 Jan: Defence Minister, speaking in Cairo, says Turabi ousted. Nafi’e Ali Nafi’e and Bakri Hassan Salih, sign ‘Memo of Ten’ ● 8 March: Constitutional Court declares Omer’s moves legal. against Turabi; all later side with Omer. ● Turabi [who founded Court] calls it ‘a lame duck’. ● 12 December 1999: Omer declares state of emergency; dissolves ● 5 May: Omer accuses Turabi of inciting the army, security, police parliament. and mujahideen against the government. ● 13 Dec: Turabi condemns ‘a plain and clear coup d’état’; Egypt ● 7 May: Turabi accuses Omer of betraying the Islamist movement ‘at supports Omer’s ‘efforts to restore Sudan’s stability’. the hand of the agents of the West’. ● Libya’s Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi backs ‘national ● Information Minister Ghazi Salah el Din says Turabi free to form reconciliation’ in Sudan. his own political party [he later sets up Popular National Congress - ● 14 Dec: Omer meets Turabi’s envoys but keeps emergency measures. and asked to join opposition National Democratic Alliance]. ● Turabi claims ‘public liberties and the just distribution of power and ● 12 May: Turabi says Omer ‘has stretched his reach into the whole wealth’ are threatened. works of the state...’ [something NIF did long before]. ● 15 Dec: Omer says [first time] he had ‘always been a committed ● 9 June: Police break up pro-Turabi protest by NIF Youth Union. Islamist’ and ‘seized power on orders from the Islamic movement’. ● 24 June: Turabi says ‘The Sudanese people have a way of dealing ● Arab League Secretary General Esmat Abdel Meguid supports ‘the withmilitary rule that suppresses freedom’. legitimate power in Sudan’ naming Omer. ● 26 June: Turabi stripped of party Secretary General’s post. ● Egyptian journalist Samir Ragab, close to Hosni Mubarak, says ● 27 June: Turabi says he’s forming breakaway party. Turabi was behind ‘terrorist plots hatched against Egypt’. ● 8 July: Turabi says, ‘The government intends to introduce secularism ● 18 Dec: Turabi admits [first time] the NIF masterminded the 1989 in response to foreign pressure from countries hostile to Islam.’ coup. ‘He [Omer] went to the Palace and I went to prison so that the ● 22 September: Government accuses Turabi’s supporters of rioting Movement would not be exposed.’ [protests in many towns started by opposition, Turabi’s people then ● 19 Dec: Turabi warns of street violence but denies calling for it. joined in]. ● 20 Dec: Omer calls for ‘a broad national front... we will discuss the ● 8 October: Student demonstrators fire on police: government form of their participation in power’. accuses Turabi’s people [noteworthy that Turabi’s militias bear ● MPs ask for emergency to be lifted. firearms].

The NIF knows how to exploit the opposition’s fear that Mohamed The Sudanese assume that the meeting was mainly about Osman, seen by many as just another, albeit milder, Islamist, will impressing UN states. It certainly did not impress the opposition’s indeed ‘do a Sadig’. The DUP has not been vigorous in opposition main (nearly sole) ally, the USA, which seemed surprised by it. over the past decade. Yet Sadig’s deal with the government is very The NDA also came under fire in private from oppositionists widely opposed, even in the Umma. We hear that attempts by party already sick of its inactivity. It argues that it needs to test NIF Secretary General Omer Nur el Deim and El Sadig el Mahdi’s intentions; others say the NIF’s intentions have long been clear. cousin Mubarek Abdullahi el Fadl el Mahdi to seal full agreement Some NDA leaders claim they were pushed into a meeting by quickly were challenged, with Darfur members threatening to leave pressure from Egypt, which (with Libya) has launched its own the Umma. On 11 October, Omer Nur el Deim was physically ‘peace initiative’, designed to foil southern independence and attacked by Umma members. therefore to block the IGAD talks overseen by Eritrea, Ethiopia, The wily DUP chief can also spring surprises, as in October Kenya and Uganda. 1988, when he joined the peace process instigated by the very Egypt has signed security and other agreements with the NIF SPLA and secularist northerners who are now his comrades in the and championed Khartoum’s position with Arab, African and NDA. Under extreme pressure by them and the army, El Sadig was Western governments. The Sudanese see this as part of Cairo’s about to join this peace process, a move aborted by the NIF’s 1989 usual misguided bid to ‘control’ Sudan. It is hard to see how much coup. This is an extra reason for believing the NIF has no interest it could pressure the NDA, short of threatening specific politicians in peace but only (as one Sudan analyst put it this week) in ‘peace with their security files. Certainly most NDA leaders cling to a forum shopping’ - the same kind of shopping that led to October’s conviction that the alliance must hold together: with all its faults, Asmara meeting. Gen. Omer was surrounded by hardcore NIF it remains the voice of the opposition and therefore of the vast leaders, including Ghazi Salah el Din el Atabani, Tayeb Ibrahim majority of Sudanese. Mohamed Kheir (Tayeb ‘Sikha’) and Abdel Rahim Mohamed Meanwhile, the NIF has ratcheted up its anti-NDA campaign. Hussein; the NDA detected little interest in dialogue, let alone Leaders repeat that they won’t renounce the ‘Islamic Project’ negotiation. (although they have signed up to the IGAD Declaration of Principles, 2 13 October 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 20 which stipulates the separation of state and religion). The are the SAF strongholds around Hamesh Koreib, Kotoneb and government ‘will not earn Allah’s wrath to please America and will Gadmayeb. The NIF, which has long denied that the northern not let the banner of Islam fall’, said President Omer last month. He opposition exists, is trying to exploit the reduction in help for the also told a military gathering last November (before the NDA from Ethiopia and Eritrea, now competing for Sudan’s favours disagreement with Turabi, see Box) that ‘the call for reconciliation as part of their own murderous falling-out. [with selected opponents] does not mean a return to before 30 June Omer boasts of the regime’s production capacity at the Military [the 1989 coup] and those who believe so are deluded’. Exponents Industrial Complex, built partly underground south of Khartoum. of this view include Vice-President Ali Osman Mohamed Taha, ‘Yarmouk plant was built secretly... and is now producing from the Turabi and Yassin Omer el Imam, who said in February: ‘It is bullet to the missile’ (sometimes mistranslated as rocket propelled impossible to separate religion from the state and nobody can take grenade), Al Sharq al Awsat quoted on 1 October. He added that, such a decision.’ The government ‘will never relinquish religion ‘The arms are being used in the south with great success’, but that the in its policies’. government could not reveal which countries had helped it achieve This dedication defines the NIF: Islamist to the core. Many this. This is the factory of which Salah el Din Ahmed Mohamed northerners who once could not contemplate the idea of southern Idriss recently bought the ‘civilian half’, Saria Complex, which also secession now acknowledge that Sudan cannot remain united if makes equipment for the army (AC Vol 41 No 19). there is an Islamist government in Khartoum. Even some who The government calls its ceasefires not as a step to peace but to favoured a form of Islamic constitution now think that unrealistic wrongfoot the SPLA, to impress the international community or, in such a multicultural society. Umma people who have publicly interestingly, in response to US military movements - for instance, endorsed Sadig’s agreement with the government say privately after US troops went to the Gulf in 1990 and to Somalia in 1992. The that they strongly oppose reconciliation with or amnesty for the NIF takes greater military than political account of the USA: the NIF. Other northerners now say it may be too late to insist on 1998 Shifa bombing later proved a watershed in Khartoum’s charm national unity, but secularism must be pursued, not least because offensive. NIF leaders fled Khartoum after that bombing and now northern Sudan, too, contains people of many faiths and cultures people are fleeing again. Many security officials, trying to change and because no one should monopolise Islam. The NDA’s new sides, are approaching political parties and offering to ‘tell all’, we watchword is that unity should be ‘voluntary’. hear. The sense of change is not because the NIF is opening up, as The NIF has touted a referendum on ‘self-determination’ for the it claims, but because it can’t control its internal backlash against the south since 1989: it may talk more of this in the hope of stalling for quarrels in its ranks. It is one thing to hype up a quarrel to convince a few more years. It talks of ceasefires and peace. Some European an international audience, another to persuade the rank-and-file that governments, horrified by the world’s longest war and with their problems are not all that serious, particularly when Omer and Turabi companies scrambling for oil-related contracts, accept the NIF’s have each accused the other of betraying the Islamic Project. The claims. In turn, some non-government outsiders claim that the splits have taken on their own momentum. opportunities for peace have never been better. This ignores the The NIF has always carried the seeds of its own destruction. It central issue: the NIF’s refusal to contemplate a secular state. will try to hang on, though, still controlling its multiple militias, security forces and army officers. It is impossible to know how One-way dialogue many of these are die-hard Islamists or how many of those will rise The NIF has expertly wrongfooted its opponents, depicting them as above their differences to make common cause. Islamist friends morally wrong (those challenging its peace overtures are from abroad, still numerous in Sudan, may fight for a regime whose ‘warmongers’) or factually wrong (as when the USA bombed El collapse would sorely damage the Islamist movement worldwide. Shifa pharmaceutical factory in 1998). It welcomes ‘constructive Turabi has said that the Yarmouk Complex was financed by the engagement’ and the European Union’s idea of ‘critical dialogue’; Islamist International. this is designed to manipulate its foreign interlocutors (who, when the NIF falls, will nevertheless claim the credit). The NDA lacks the funds and cohesion to play the regime at its own game. CONGO-KINSHASA The NIF also insists it is fighting (against foreign interference, not southern desperation) for national unity. On 4 October, after 11 days of IGAD talks in Nairobi, the government team leader, Dropping Kabila Presidential Advisor Ahmed Ibrahim el Tahir, made it clear Regional powers led by Angola are secession was not on the cards; he claimed the southern oilfields for pressuring Congo’s leader to talk peace the central government ‘as in all political regimes in the world’. Foreign Minister Mustafa Osman Ismael (‘Mr. Smile’) recently Secret discussions between regional leaders in Kampala, Kigali, Luanda declared the government was ‘determined to keep Sudan a united and Paris hold the best hope for peace in Congo-Kinshasa. Their state’. This appeals to Arab governments, many of which Khartoum common theme is growing impatience with President Laurent-Désiré has helped persuade that they are more threatened by secularism, Kabila and his obstruction of the peace process. Angola is now paying democracy and the dismantling of ‘an Arab state’ than by Islamism for most military operations in support of Kabila (including the costs of or terrorism. This helped earn Arab League support in the Security Zimbabwean and Namibian troops). Council bid and support for Omer against Turabi. Angolan generals, particularly the Chief of Staff, Gen. João de Omer constantly repeats his refusal to ‘relinquish the jihad’; on Matos, think they’re not getting their money’s worth. The original his return from Asmara, government aerial bombing north of motive for sending in the troops was to close off rebel leader Jonas Kassala killed at least ten civilians. On the ground, the government Savimbi from his rear bases and the profitable Congo-Angola gem attacked on three axes on 5 October, said the NDA Unified Military trade. That hasn’t happened. Recent reports indicate that some of Command, whose Commander is John Garang. Particular targets Savimbi’s business allies are again trading diamonds in Kinshasa. 3 13 October 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 20

Western powers are also pushing Kabila discreetly. Washington and Congo quagmire. London are critical of his diplomatic brinkmanship; older counsels in Paris and Brussels delight in saying ‘We told you so’ to Anglophone The pro-Kabila forces diplomats who had greeted Kabila’s arrival and Mobutu Sese Seko’s ANGOLA: Luanda pays most of the cost of supporting Kabila, departure in 1997 with some glee. Now Britain’s Minister of State for providing aircraft, equipment and materiel. Even oil-rich Angola can Africa and the Commonwealth, Peter Hain, wants an embargo on ill afford the strain, as attacks by the União Nacional para a diamond exports from Congo-K, to stop both the fuelling of its own Independência Total de Angola increase at home and state services war and the conduit of smuggled gems from Angola. collapse. The army’s backing for Kabila in Congo has not weakened Kabila’s backers and opponents may be frustrated but they know he UNITA, which has changed its strategy from holding territory, including will not go quietly. Three factors drive the regional leaders’ discussions: the diamond fields of the north-east, to generalised guerrilla attacks on 1. The formal peace talks under the Lusaka agreement signed in July government installations across the country. Luanda is talking to and August last year are stalemated: both government and rebels are Congolese opposition leaders such as Jean-Pierre Bemba, former launching another round of fighting. Premier Léon Kengo wa Dondo and Nimy Mayidika, who runs a 2. Most of the regional powers involved in Congo want to disengage. group called the Rassemblement des 11 Provinces (R11). Even if 3. The regional powers’ intervention hasn’t improved border security Luanda isn’t ready to drop Kabila immediately, it is increasing and has cost far more than expected. pressure on him for serious peace negotiations. A French businessman Reports of the discussions show a rapprochement between Angola, well known in Luanda and Brazzaville, Jean-Yves Ollivier, provided Rwanda (which backs the opposition Rassemblement Congolais pour a plane to fly Angola’s Foreign Minister João do Miranda to Paris to la Démocratie-Goma), Uganda (which backs two rebel groups - the meet Bemba last month. RCD-Kisangani and Jean-Pierre Bemba’s Mouvement de Libération It is hard to fathom Luanda’s relations with the ‘Katangan du Congo) and Congo-Brazzaville, whose President Denis Sassou- gendarmes’, descendants of the Katangan nationalist fighters who fled Nguesso is one of Angola’s key regional allies. The latest stage in the Congo during the Mobutu era and became a quasi-autonomous military regional talks brought in Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and unit in Angola. They helped to forge the coalition between Angola, Namibian President Sam Nujoma to a meeting with Kabila in Uganda and Rwanda that brought Kabila to power in mid-1997 but Windhoek on 9 October. Mugabe and Nujoma maintain rhetorical now think Kabila has sold out Katangan interests. A key man here is support for Kabila but over the past year, they have reduced their Ilunga, the putative RCD-Goma leader, who is close to Luanda; in military commitment to the western and southern chunks of Congo 1997, he persuaded Kampala and Kigali to accept help from the that his forces still control. gendarmes, who were then flown from Angola into eastern Congo. Informal summits may help the drive for peace by ratcheting down Luanda is also annoyed by Kabila’s attempt to include in the foreign military involvement. They may also pressure the key negotiations the OAU Chairman, President Gnassingbé Eyadéma of Congolese faction leaders, such as Kabila, Bemba, Emile Ilunga and Togo. Last year the UN sanctions committee (AC Vol 40 No 13) Ernest Wamba dia Wamba, to start serious negotiations. Kampala’s showed that UNITA was smuggling diamonds, and arms from Eastern and Kigali’s anti-Kabila sentiments are increasingly widely shared Europe, through Togo. Angola wants to isolate Eyadéma, but Kabila these days. Various plans are mooted, such as the appointment of an sent his Communications Minister, ‘Frère Dominique’ Sakombi executive prime minister to take on many of Kabila’s powers, and Inongo (a former propaganda guru for Mobutu) to Lomé last month. setting up a devolved federal system (which Congo has in reality had CONGO BRAZZAVILLE: Like his backers in Luanda, Sassou- for the past 35 years). The broad aim is to reduce Kabila’s autocratic Nguesso is losing patience with Kabila. Fighting on the Ubangi River powers and bring a wider range of Congolese into government. In disrupts trade between Congo-Brazzaville and the Central African private, the regional leaders tell Kabila that he must make such Republic, which between them have to accommodate some 100,000 reforms if he wants to hold genuine elections and that his claim to rule refugees from Congo-K. all Congo is meaningless without electoral endorsement, as he cannot Kabila’s forces on the Congo River have attacked steamers flying enforce Kinshasa’s writ militarily. the Congo-Brazza flag and Kabila gave offence by inviting supporters These regional summits could prove a credible route to implementing of Sassou’s two main opponents, Bernard Kolélas and Pascal the Lusaka agreement, most of whose signatories have failed to keep Lissouba, to Kinshasa. Moreover, the Kouyou and Mbochi people of the ceasefire or to meet the political preconditions. Most leaders are Congo-B are close to Bemba’s Ngbandi. CAR President Ange-Félix sceptical of a United Nations’ role in the short term and want Kabila Patassé has similar leanings: he says diplomatically that Kabila may to recognise and work with the mediator appointed by the Organisation be a brother but Bemba is a son. of African Unity, Botswana’s former President Ketumile Masire. ZIMABABWE: Harare’s economic crisis is forcing a rethink of The Lusaka accord provides for regional security pacts and an Congo policy and Emmerson Mnangagwa, the key diplomatic and internal Congolese political dialogue - a sensible framework, combining financial strategist on Congo, has told Africa Confidential that he has incentives with enforcement mechanisms. War-weariness among nothing to do with Congo any more. He is concentrating on his new their respective regional backers could press both Kabila and the job as parliamentary Speaker and presumably on his campaign to rebels to honour the ceasefire and the regional leaders’ plans for succeed Mugabe as leader of the Zimbabwe African National Union- phased withdrawal could kick-start the Lusaka process. Yet if Kabila Patriotic Front. The Defence Minister, Moven Mahachi (known continues to obstruct the UN, his regional backers may lose patience dismissively as ‘Tea Boy’ in military circles) has no political clout. and ally themselves with a more pragmatic political broker. Several New Finance Minister Simba Makoni is against the Congo diplomats believe that ‘dropping Kabila’ might unblock peace intervention: a deal with the International Monetary Fund is impossible negotiations. Congolese nationalists, though, even those not especially while the intervention continues and Makoni, like other reform- attached to Kabila, suspect that his departure might just increase the minded ministers, wants a quick but honourable exit. foreign meddling which was a primary cause of the war. The latest Zimbabwean troops and aircraft have been pulled out but it’s regional talks show that all the powers involved are reviewing the unclear how much is rotation and how much, reduction. Kabila’s late 4 13 October 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 20 payment of Zimbabwean military companies such as Avient (AC Vol 41 No 18) is worrying and there has been no substantial pay-off from NIGERIA the Zimbabwean military’s mining ventures - although some generals and politicians have profited personally from trading and procurement deals. Zimbabwe’s army has suffered heavy losses, particularly of helicopters, but is not defeated and its strategists insist that the A military makeover intervention is justifiable in international law. (Uganda and Zimbabwe At least Obasanjo is winning in his old still have a military cooperation agreement, although they are on stamping ground - the military different sides in Congo.) As political crisis succeeds political crisis - insurgency in the Niger NAMIBIA: Nujoma is Kabila’s most sanguine ally. His domestic Delta, Yoruba separatism, Sharia and born-again Biafra campaigners position is unassailable and Angola pays most of the cost of the - a new battle for power and influence is raging around Nigeria’s intervention. However, Namibia’s involvement damages relations military. Having dominated government and politics for 30 of the with South Africa and domestic opposition is rising. If Angola’s country’s 40 years of independence, the military is just taking a well- support for Kabila fades, so will Namibia’s. earned rest before resuming its historic role, many Nigerians believe. This time, they may be wrong. Although President and retired General Olusegun Obasanjo’s The anti-Kabila forces economic and diplomatic judgements are frequently under fire, few RWANDA: Kigali’s intervention was meant to secure the border but question his knowledge of and standing within the military. Two years hasn’t. Armed rebels from the former Forces Armées Rwandaises and ago, he told Africa Confidential that 90 per cent of trainee officers Interahamwé militia still operate in north-western Congo, now actively joined the military for a political career. That would have to change supported by Kabila, with some fully integrated into Kinshasa’s if Nigeria were to move forward, he insisted. Forces Armées Congolaises. The military involvement in Congo has Some of his ideas are beginning to work: a far-reaching purge, complicated the hunt for the génocidaires and been a diplomatic successive redeployments and a restructuring of military intelligence disaster. Worst, Rwandan troops got into a fight with the Ugandan have much reduced the possibility of a coup or a devastating ethnic- troops who were their key allies, in a row over mineral rights and lines religious split in the military, which many feared in the 1990s. The of political control. The earlier break with Angola came when army’s officer corps is dominated again by Christians from minority Rwandan forces tried to air-lift troops to the Atlantic seaboard but ethnic groups. The bulk of the 93 officers retired last year, for having failed to tell Luanda that they would cross UNITA-controlled territory. held political office, were northern Muslims, prompting complaints of Rwanda’s intervention wrecked relations between Kigali and the marginalisation. With recruits from the north still dominating the Banyamulenge (indeed, all Tutsi in Congo); Rwandan forces behaved ranks, the training and advancement of northern officers will have to more like an army of occupation than fraternal allies. Kigali’s allies speed up to forestall new troubles. Over the past 18 months, the army in the RCD-Goma have thus forfeited much of their popular support. has largely been free of the religious and ethnic clashes seen beyond But the financial burden is not great, since Rwandan troops are used the barracks. to low-cost, low-technology warfare - unlike the armies of Luanda and Yet there are huge obstacles to the reform of the armed forces, Harare. Kabila can’t win back eastern Congo but Kigali sees little 80,000-strong and still politicised and badly equipped. Four hotly scope for rebel gains there. In north-western Congo, the MLC, led by contested issues dominate the military reform agenda: personnel, Bemba, over whom Kigali has little influence, is pushing towards structure, doctrine and equipment. The Minister of Defence, Lieutenant Kinshasa. Gen. Theophilus Danjuma, started out last year with a bold plan to reduce the forces by half. Then, in a truly Nigerian conspiracy saga, UGANDA: President Yoweri Museveni is fully behind the he was reported to be suffering from nervous exhaustion and taking rapprochement with Luanda and personally welcomed Angolan Chief treatment in Europe. of Staff De Matos to Kampala last month. Like De Matos, Museveni Danjuma has survived another year but his plans for swingeing cuts is tiring of the Congo adventure, profitable only to a few senior officers have met entrenched opposition from the military establishment. and their business friends - and a distraction from the fight against More professional officers say that a one-off 50 per cent cut would be Sudanese-backed rebels in northern and eastern Uganda. Uganda’s unworkable, given regional and domestic commitments, while the operations in Congo are much criticised at home and abroad, and more politically minded (currently taking a low profile) believe bigger Museveni could withdraw without losing much face. Bemba’s MLC, is better for their purposes. which used to look like a front for the Ugandan army, has in two years Foreign consultants, specifically the United States’ Military become a serious and more independent-minded force. Professional Resources Incorporated, which has a contract with the The MLC has assured Luanda that it has no links with UNITA and Obasanjo government to advise on military restructuring, are behind said so again at the Do Miranda meeting in Paris last month. Bemba the plan to set up a fifth division: the 83rd composite division, which has banned former Mobutist Generals Nzimbi Ngbale Kongo wa will concentrate on policing the oil-rich and politically volatile Niger Bassa and Baramoto Kpama - corrupt friends of UNITA’s - from his Delta. The new division will have, as does the Enugu-based 82nd territory. Bemba and Museveni are said to have promised to cut no division, a joint air, land and water capability. The USA has sold the deal with UNITA, if Angolan forces stay neutral when the MLC government eight fast attack speed boats for use in the Delta. Local attacks Mbandaka, the base for Kabila’s bombers. opposition groups claim there is an oil company-Nigerian army If the regional summits can agree on a phased and mutual foreign conspiracy to depopulate the region. Such groups have bitter memories disengagement from Congo-Kinshasa, Kabila will be the loser and of November’s military operations in Odi, which killed dozens of Bemba the winner. Yet Angola’s relations with Bemba are at an early people and forced more than 15,000 to flee the area. stage and Kabila can still fight back; he is doing all he can to keep Officers are ambivalent about domestic security operations. Angola’s forces on his side. 5 13 October 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 20

The new securocrats

President Olusegun Obasanjo’s security structure works as follows: DIVISIONAL COMMANDERS 1. THE EXECUTIVE ● Major Gen. Lawrence Ogomudia (Delta): 1st Mechanised Division, ● Lieutenant General Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma (from Plateau Kaduna. State): Minister of Defence and confidant of Obasanjo. Danjuma ● Maj. Gen. Edet Archibong (Cross River): 2nd Division, Ibadan. wants to retire due to poor health: Lt. Gen. (rtd.) Salihu Ibrahim (from He was formerly aide-de-camp to Obasanjo. Kogi), respected army chief under President Ibrahim Babangida, is ● Maj. Gen. Thaddeus Akande (Kogi): 3rd Armoured Division, Jos. tipped to succeed him. Former human rights activist Dupe Adelaja is ● Brigadier Gen. Martins Yellow (Kaduna): 82nd Composite junior Defence Minister: she is to stay on. Division, Enugu. ● Gen. Abdullahi Mohammed (Kwara): Chief of Staff in the INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS Presidency. He was the first Director of the Nigerian Security ● Rear Adm. Duro Ajayi: Chief of Defence Intelligence. Organisation during Obasanjo’s stint as military leader (1976-79). ● Brig. Gen. Ade Ajibade: Deputy Chief, Defence Intelligence. Mohammed coordinated Federal intelligence during the civil war. ● Colonel Ayo Otulana: Director, Directorate of Military Intelligence. ● Gen. Aliyu Mohammed Gusau (Zamfara): National Security ● Ambassador Uche Okeke (formerly acting High Commissioner to Advisor. Director of Military Intelligence under President Shehu London): Director of National Intelligence Agency (overseas). Shagari, Gusau was Coordinator of National Security under Babangida ● Col. Tunji Are: Director of State Security Services (domestic). and Chief of Army Staff in the short-lived interim government of his To meet Northern complaints of marginalisation, some key retired friend Ernest Shonekan. northern officers have been appointed to important civilian postings: Brig. Gen. Mohammed B. Marwa, formerly Lagos State 2.THE MILITARY HIERARCHY Administrator, is now Chairman of the Defence Industries Corporation; ● Admiral Ibrahim Ogohi (Kogi): Chief of Defence Staff. he’s close to Danjuma. Brig. Gen. Lawan Gwadabe is tipped to chair ● Lt. Gen. Victor Malu (Benue): Chief of Army Staff. the Nigerian Ports Authority and Maj. Gen. Sarki Mukhtar is now ● Air Vice-Marshall Isaac Alfa (Kogi): Chief of Air Staff. Ambassador to Russia. The most senior officer from the core north ● Adm. Victor Ombu (Cross River): Chief of Naval Staff. is Brig. Gen. Ibrahim Karmashe, a Zuru-born intelligence officer.

Professional officers say that riot police or a paramilitary forces dominating the reform agenda and that outfits such as MPRI lack the should deal with political unrest. Yet intervention at home also plays local political and cultural knowledge to draw up policy. They want to the vanity of officers who insist the military is the guarantor of the money spent on military training academies and traditional military national integrity. exchange programmes with foreign forces rather than on private The harsh reality is that the military hasn’t got the training or consultants. The US Department of Defense has earmarked US$10 equipment to be effective, either in domestic policing or regional million for Nigerian security this year. peacekeeping. A preliminary report by MPRI on the forces’ combat- There is almost no tradition in the military of accountability to civil readiness found 75 per cent of the army’s equipment to be damaged authority. President Obasanjo, as military officer turned civilian or completely out of commission. The navy is worse still: of 52 leader, is in a strong position to change this. He and Vice-President vessels, fewer than ten are seaworthy. Of the airforce’s fleet of 90 Atiku Abubakar have spelled out the new doctrine to graduating combat aircraft and 15 armed helicopters, perhaps five Alpha jets are officers at the National War College: supremacy of elected officials of flying, along with one Hercules C-130 transporter and a couple of state over appointed officers at all levels; acceptance of civilian attack helicopters. leadership of the Defence Ministry and other strategic institutions; Frustrated officers concede their armed forces have slipped down goals and conduct of military operations subject to civilian oversight; Africa’s military hierarchy, in terms of equipment and combat-ready the right of the (civil) Supreme Court to review any decision taken by personnel, behind South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Angola and military judicial officers. Morocco. Yet Western diplomats want Nigeria to play a lead role in The problem is enforcing this. Legislative oversight of defence, resolving conflicts in West Africa, as well as in Congo-Kinshasa and intelligence and policing matters is almost non-existent. Many civilians Angola. Obasanjo may have political clout abroad (he’s one of few on the oversight committees of the National Assembly lack detailed leaders to whom Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe listens) but knowledge of the subject. The Defence Committee is chaired by a Nigeria lacks the military muscle to buttress its diplomacy. medical doctor, Nnamdi Eriobuna; Police Affairs by a lawyer, Nigeria’s intervention in Liberia and Sierra Leone has been Adolphus Wabara; and the Senate Security and Intelligence compromised by the corruption and politics of successive senior Committee by Nuhu Aliyu, a former Deputy Inspector General of officers and their political-military leaders in Abuja. After a public Police. They have been largely sidelined by the presidency and the quarrel with the Indian Commander of the United Nations Mission in Defence Minister, and by the military itself and its foreign consultants. Sierra Leone, Gen. Vijay Jetley, over accusations of collusion in The few politicians and civil society activists with enough knowledge diamond smuggling, Nigeria is bidding to take the military as well as of security complain that military reform is being dominated by the political lead in the mission. personalities (Obasanjo and Danjuma) and Western donors (the US Few agree on priorities or the budget for rebuilding the military. and British governments). Instead, they want a comprehensive The service chiefs’ ambitious wish-list for new equipment was rejected defence review debated in the Assembly, which would determine the out of hand by Obasanjo and Danjuma, who favour improving service broad policy framework, after which the military would map out conditions over sophisticated hardware. Lobbying by foreign arms- operational policy. Decisions such as creating an 83rd Division to dealers and military consultants such as MPRI irritates more nationalist police the Delta without consulting parliamentarians or local people officers. They argue that foreign interests (reflected in giving priority risk exacerbating the conflict in the oil-rich areas, activists say. to Niger Delta operations and selling inappropriate equipment) are Clearly, the military’s battles are far from over. 6 13 October 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 20

Detection sections. He has his hands full trying to provide some SOUTH AFRICA sort of direction to policing. One-third of the 18,000 detectives have received no formal detective training; 36,000 of the 126,000 police are functionally illiterate, unable to take down a statement. Private security guards now outnumber police. Policemen plod on The ANC, when it took power, intended to establish civilian Some tough technocrats are running the anti- oversight of a police force which had tortured and killed many of crime policy but the police force lags behind its members. Alongside the post-apartheid SAPS was the civilian Secretariat for Safety and Security, commissioned to produce South Africans feel unsafe. Fear of criminals demoralises people policy, research crime and evaluate police performance. Its chief and is a major cause of emigration. High expectations therefore ranked as a director general, equal to the Police Commissioner attach to the first black Commissioner of Police, Jackie Selebi. himself. The first head of the Secretariat was Azhar Cachalia, a Blunt-speaking and cerebral, he was formerly Director General of canny human rights lawyer who himself had been detained several Foreign Affairs. As SA Representative at the United Nations in times under apartheid. Last year, though, Cachalia was given to Geneva in the mid-1990s, he chaired the UN Commission on understand that his services were not wanted and he returned to his Human Rights. Yet that experience has done little to prepare him law practice. The new head of the Secretariat, Malekolle Rasegatle, for SA’s Wild West. a confederate of Tshwete’s, now ranks as a deputy director general Amid opposition concern, this week’s new law on firearms and its staff has been cut by almost three-quarters. control gives police sweeping powers to search suspects and seize The gung-ho approach promoted by Tshwete and Pruis has no firearms. Official estimates say there are 3.5 million licensed counterweight. Some government security advisors and independent weapons and some half million illegal ones. Others believe there consultants fear a return to the bad old days of apartheid policing. could be around four mn. unlicensed guns in circulation, nearly one A remark attributed to Cachalia is: ‘We thought, under apartheid, for every ten people. that the police were brutal, but competent. It took us some time to The South African Police Service (SAPS) has now abandoned its realise they were brutal because they were incompetent.’ Equally, unsuccessful plans for community-based policing and devised a many think it naive to replace apartheid with a liberal constitution three-phase strategy: saturation of trouble spots to identify and and an exemplary bill of rights. eliminate criminals; reactivation of run-down local police stations; By creating the ‘Scorpions’, an elite unit of crime fighters, the and, for the longer term, action with departments such as Housing men who run the police have diverted massive resources, which and Transport to upgrade social infrastructure. Sceptical South might have helped solve many problems. The Scorpions will spend Africans are not over-excited. about 600 mn. rand (US$83 mn.) plus several times more in costs Police statistics show that, between 1994 (when the African borne by other departments - money that could have done much to National Congress came to power) and 1999 (when Thabo Mbeki improve, for example, training for detectives and specialists. succeeded Nelson Mandela as President), reported car-jackings The Scorpions’ head, Bulelani Ngcuka, also heads the state increased by 20 per cent, rapes by 21 per cent, assaults by 22 per prosecution service, and is frank about the new unit’s political cent, burglaries by 25 per cent and common robberies by an purpose. It is to reassure the public that something is being done astonishing 121 per cent. Reported murders showed a decline, to combat spiralling crime. Ngcuka, a human rights lawyer who, probably because the 16-year battle between the ANC and the like Selebi, was often detained during the closing years of apartheid, Inkatha movement ended in KwaZulu-Natal. has emerged as a heavyweight in the ANC and government. He and This year, the SAPS is not publishing crime statistics. Some say Selebi have been struggling for their share of the scarce resources it will start again when the figures can be calculated to show a fall. for fighting crime. Things went wrong while Mufamadi was Safety The new gung-ho anti-crime strategy comes from Steve Tshwete, and Security Minister and George Fivaz was Police Commissioner; who succeeded the cautious Sydney Mufamadi as Minister of Fivaz’s main qualification for the job was that he had never been Safety and Security in June last year. Tshwete, an old ANC activist a security policeman. They failed to create momentum towards and Robben Island veteran, served very briefly as Political community policing or to draw other government departments into Commissar of the ANC’s military wing, in the late 1980s, until his solving the problems of depressed areas. ANC colleagues decided that his brash political gestures made him unsuitable. Brashness seems to be a requisite in Tshwete’s new job. In his Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at charge are three former apartheid-era police officers running the 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. new anti-crime strategy. Deputy Commissioner Andre Pruis Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. heads operational response and crime prevention. He was in the Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. apartheid government’s Directorate of Military Intelligence, then Administration: Clare Tauben. lectured on strategic studies at the (mainly Afrikaans-language) Annual subscriptions, cheques payable to Africa Confidential in advance: University of the Orange Free State, until he was head-hunted into UK: £278 Europe: £278 the security police, where he worked to win hearts and minds in the Africa: £258 US:$697 (including Airmail) Rest of the World: £361 black townships and to discredit anti-apartheid activists. Students (with proof): £79 or US$126 Pruis works closely with Louis Eloff, the Deputy Commissioner All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept who oversees personnel, finances and logistics. A third old-regime American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. officer - Johan Burger, a former security policeman - completes Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 1FH England. Tel: 44 1865 244083 and Fax: 44 1865 381381 the triumvirate which, according to insiders, now effectively runs Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. the SAPS. Selebi’s third Deputy Commissioner is Tim Williams, ISSN 0044-6483 a former ANC intelligence officer who heads the Intelligence and 7 13 October 2000 Africa Confidential Vol 41 No 20

used to promises but this time - although the Pointers LIBYA/WEST AFRICA extended poll offers huge opportunities for fiddling - it has hopes as well. The judiciary is the wild card of Egyptian CAMEROON Racist rage politics, not fully co-opted by 50 years of military rule (AC Vol 41 No 10). In July, the Supreme Racist hysteria against blacks in Libya has dented Constitutional Court declared the 1990 and 1995 Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi’s ambition to create Pride of Lions Assembly elections invalid, since they had not, as a ‘United States of Africa’ (USA) next year. He the constitution specifies, been supervised by proclaimed his plan to July’s Organisation of Cameroon’s extraordinary national football judges. The government had to draft a new African Unity summit in Lomé, Togo. Three team, the Indomitable Lions, has done President electoral law and rush it through parliament. Judges months later, some of his own people were killing Paul Biya some big favours. The Lions beat rather than police officers will watch for those he had called their ‘brother Africans’. Nigeria’s Super Eagles in Lagos to win the irregularities at polling stations and the There was said to be over a million black African Cup of Nations in February and won the government’s moderate critics reckon most will African ‘guest-workers’ in Libya. After weeks of Olympic tournament by beating Spain on a do their best to keep down fraud and violence. violence in which 100 of them were killed, penalty shoot-out. Biya then asked veteran Even judges can’t be everywhere at once, Ghana’s President Jerry Rawlings flew to Libya soccer star Roger Milla and tennis ace Yannick though. There is bound to be cheating and public- on 7 October to bring home 238 Ghanaians. In an Noah to hire a Paris stadium for Cameroon to sector employees will be bussed in en masse to election year, he knew his National Democratic play France, current World and European vote for candidates of the ruling National Congress would be damaged by the unsupervised Champions. Just after a tiring flight from Democratic Party. The government is taking no return of 5,000 or more Ghanaian migrant workers. Australia, the Lions held France to a draw and, chances with the strongest opposition movement, Rawlings’ friend Gadaffi was abroad, on Biya’s initiative, were received at the the Muslim Brotherhood, whose far-flung network campaigning for Arab unity in the Middle East, National Assembly in Paris, emphasising that draws strength from Egyptians’ deep faith and and sent a note of apology. Later, lamely, he four of the world’s major soccer trophies are economic suffering. Police disrupt their campaign blamed the attacks on oppositionists. On 1 held by Francophones - Cameroon and France. rallies and MB sources say at least 1,000 activists September, he had declared all Libyans were Biya hopes sporting solidarity will bring have been arrested this year - 250 still in detention. Africans and all Africans, Libyans. A month diplomatic and commercial benefits. He wants Victorious non-government candidates are later, the General People’s Congress ruled that another seven-year presidential term from the likely to be from more secular parties, notably the ‘immigrant workers whether legal or illegal should 2004 elections and success for his liberal Wafd, or independents. If anti-government not be subjected to attack or indignant treatment’. Rassemblement Démocratique du Peuple candidates win a fraction of what a truly open vote One version blamed the attacks on Libya’s Camerounais in the 2001 municipal elections. would give them - say, a quarter of the elected ‘Asama boys’, as part of a drugs war between The key is an alliance between his RDPC and seats - it would more than triple their current Libyan dealers and their Nigerian competitors; Bello Bouba Maïgari’s northern-based Union parliamentary strength. Nationale pour la Démocratie et le Progrès. the Nigerian authorities at first believed their own miscreants had again brought shame on their Since the 1997 elections, Biya has managed to ZAMBIA/VATICAN woo enough northern support to beat John Fru country. They changed their tune once they realised Ndi and his Social Democratic Front, based in the scale of the attacks. Those who have returned the Anglophone south, with the help of electoral to Lagos brought gory details of assaults by Libyan Laying off hands fraud and shrewd political deals. More backing hooligans, even on Nigerians taken to ‘safety from Paris would help. camps’. Ghanaian returnees said the same. Zambian Archbishop Emmanuel Milingo, healer The football triumphs coincided with World Sudanese and, especially, Chadians, were also and exorcist in Rome for 18 years, has been Bank approval for the US$2 billion, 1,200 attacked and some killed. Both governments silently sacked as Vatican Special Delegate to the kilometre, oil pipeline from Chad’s Doba Basin protested. Niger, too, was caught in the confusion Pontifical Commission for Migration and Tourism. to Cameroon’s Kribi port (AC Vol 41 No 14). that envelopes Libya, where censorship makes it He was summoned to Rome in 1982, after the The oil majors concerned are the United States’ almost impossible to know the truth. Some 4,500 Vatican questioned the orthodoxy of his ministry Exxon and Chevron and Malaysia’s Petronas; Nigeriens have been repatriated. Prime Minister in Lusaka (AC Vol 32 No 3). To his detractors’ most construction contracts have gone to French Hama Amadou visited Tripoli and said five of his embarrassment, his rites proved as popular in companies, such as Bouygues, Bolloré, Cégélec compatriots had been killed and 200 injured. A Italy as Zambia. Pope John Paul II sympathised and Sogéa. Former French Interior Minister Niger state radio correspondent said no citizens of with the charismatic prelate and protected him. Charles Pasqua and commodity magnate Niger had been killed, adding that the attacks on As the election of the ailing Pope’s successor Vincent Bolloré lobbied keenly for the pipeline. blacks resulted from the killing of a Libyan doctor looms, bureaucrats are conducting a purge. The Biya’s Paris friends have helped place next and the rape of his family. No Nigeriens were main architect of Milingo’s downfall is said to be year’s Franco-African summit in Cameroon. involved but they were attacked ‘because the his old opponent, Italy’s Angelo Cardinal Sodano. We hear two of Biya’s advisors visited Paris in Libyans cannot differentiate between blacks’. Yet a cautious rapprochement may be under way August to report on security conditions. Colonel between Milingo, 70, and Zambia’s Bishops’ Ivo Desancio Yenwo, presidential security EGYPT Conference. Of late, Milingo often visits his chief, asked for instructors to retrain the home country, planning his burial in his village. Presidential Guard, originally formed by Israel. The dispute reflects arguments about the Yaoundé also wants Captain Hamadi M’Bara Democratic deficit Church’s future. Most Christians live in the Guerandi ‘neutralised’; he’s a veteran Egyptians are being offered the most democratic South, some 350 million of them in Africa. oppositionist, involved in a failed coup in 1984, parliamentary elections since President Anwar Traditional churchmen fear this shift in the balance now exiled in France and Burkina Faso. Sadat toyed with multiparty politics in the mid- of power and Milingo’s view that Rome must Biya has worries nearer home. On 5 1970s. For more than a year, President Hosni learn from African spirituality. Shocked by the October, the wily Fru Ndi invited Joseph Mubarak and the state press have been promising international following he attracted, they know Owona, one of Biya’s most hard-line a qualitative difference in the vote for the 444 that, if the Church can’t accommodate such trends, lieutenants, to Bamenda ‘to discuss elected seats in the People’s Assembly. The vote it may lose followers to the independent education’. Both sides said the talks were will be held in three stages and two rounds between congregations of Africa and Latin America. The fruitful. 18 October and 14 November. The opposition is next Pope will have to deal with Milingo’s wider legacy. 8