Working Paper ‘Where’s the money coming from?’ Tracing the history of manifesto costings in UK elections, 1955-2019 Peter Sloman Image Credit: The Conservative Party Archive/Contributor ‘Labour’s Tax Bombshell’ 1992 https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/poster-for-the-british-conservative-party-from-the- 1992-news-photo/91270677 1 ‘Where’s the money coming from?’ Tracing the history of manifesto costings in UK elections, 1955-2019 Peter Sloman CONTENTS Introduction 3 Inventing the ‘tax bombshell’, 1953-1959 4 The politics of tax and spend, 1959-1974 7 The ‘new realism’ and the tax revolt, 1974-1997 11 Fiscal rules and ‘deficit deniers’: Debating the fiscal baseline, 1997-2019 16 Conclusions 19 Appendix: List of manifesto costings 21 Author’s Note This is a working paper, published to provide historical context for the 2019 general election campaign. The author would welcome comments and suggestions for improvement: please email Peter Sloman at
[email protected] Acknowledgements I am grateful to Dr Aled Davies of Jesus College, Oxford, for insightful discussions on this topic. Our co-authored chapter, ‘Fiscal promises: Tax and spending in British general elections since 1964’, is forthcoming in David Thackeray and Richard Toye (eds.), Electoral Pledges in Britain since 1918: The Politics of Promises (Palgrave Macmillan, 2020). Published November 2019 Publication from the Bennett Institute for Public Policy, Cambridge www.bennettinstitute.cam.ac.uk Introduction Tuesday 5 November – the day before the 2019 general election campaign officially kicked off – was pencilled in on the Conservative grid as tax bombshell day. According to the Financial Times, Sajid Javid briefed the Cabinet that Treasury officials had spent two weeks analysing Labour’s spending plans, and their work would show that Jeremy Corbyn’s policies would cost ‘hundreds of billions of pounds’.