Prof. Lionel Page

Professor in Economics University of Technology Sydney

Professional Address

Lionel Page Economics Discipline Group University of Technology Sydney 14-28 Ultimo Road Sydney NSW 2000 Australia E-mail : [email protected] Personal webpage : https://sites.google.com/site/liopage/home

Research Interests

Main fields of research Behavioural Economics/Game Theory, Education, Applied Micro-econometrics, Higher Education

2002–2007 PhD “A Behavioural Theory of Educational Choices” 15th October 2007, Highest honours Paris School of Economics - University Paris 1 2003–2006 MA, Statistics Statistician-Economist diploma, major in Statistics Na- tional School of Statistics and Economic Management (ENSAE) Thesis : Estimation of a structural model of educational choices with aspi- ration levels. 2001–2002 MA, Economics (DEA diploma in France) University Paris 1 2001 Agregation (Admission to the French professorship competition exam in Social Sciences) ENS Cachan 1999 BSc, Econometrics (Licence diplomas in France) ENS Cachan

Professional Experience

2019– Professor in Economics UTS 2015– LCC Fellow ARC Life Course Centre 2013–2018 Professor in Economics QUT 2012–2015 ARC DECRA Fellow - Queensland Smart Futures Fellow - Senior Research Fellow QUT 2010–2012 Postdoctoral Research Fellow QUT 2009–2011 Research Associate University of Cambridge Jul 2009–Aug 2009 Visiting Fellow QUT 2006–2010 Research Fellow University of Westminster 2006–2010 Research Associate University of Paris 1 Jun 2007–Jul 2007 Visiting Researcher Duke University, USA Jan 2002–Feb 2002 Visiting Researcher Brown University, USA Administrative roles

2019– Program Director UTS Graduate Certificate in Behavioural Economics 2015–2018 Head Queensland Behavioural Economic group 2017–2018 Study Area Coordinator QUT Graduate Certificate in Beha- vioural Economics 2017–2018 Research Ethic Advisor QUT School of Economics and Finance 2014–2018 Chair QUT School of Economics and Finance Research Commit- tee

Editorial/advising roles

2019– Member of the Economic Science Association Executive Committee 2017– Member of the Economic Society of Australia National Economic Panel 2017– Member of the Economic Society of Australia Central Council 2016– Coordinating Editor Theory and Decision 2016– Associate Editor Behavioral Public Policy, (Ed. G. Akerlof, C. Sunstein, A. Oliver) 2016 Guest Editor Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization Special Issue - Behavioral Political Economy 2016 Guest Editor Journal of Economic Psychology Special Issue - Understanding Behaviour in Contests : Views from Economics, Psychology and Biology

Peer reviewed publications & R&R

RR How success breeds success Quantitative Economics (with Ambroise Descamps and Changxia Ke) RR Expertise, Gender, and Equilibrium Play Quantitative Economics (with Ro- main Gauriot and John Wooders) RR Learning to hesitate Experimental Economics (with Ambroise Descamps and Sebastien Massoni) RR Absolute vs. relative success : Why overconfidence is an inefficient equili- brium Psychological Science (with Alice Solda, Changxia Ke and Bill von Hippel) RR Too big to prevail : Coalition formations in the presence of a superpower Games and Economic Behavior (with Changxia Ke, Florian Morath and Anthony Newell) RR Driving a hard bargain is a balancing act. How social preferences constrain the negotiation process. Theory and Decision (with Yola Engler) 2020 How much information is incorporated in financial asset prices ? Experi- mental Evidence Forthcoming Review of Financial Studies (with Christoph Siem- roth) 2020 Strategically delusional Experimental Economics (with Alice Solda, Changxia Ke and Bill von Hippel) 2020 Assessing the unidimensionality of political opinions. An indirect test of the persuasion bias Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 2019 Does Success breed success ? A quasi-experiment on strategic momentum in dynamic contests Economic Journal (with Romain Gauriot) 2019 Fooled by performance randomness : over-rewarding luck Review of Economics and Statistics (with Romain Gauriot) 2019 Long-lasting effects of relative age at school Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (with Juliana Silva-Goncalves and Dipa Sarkar) 2019 Long-Term Forecasts for Energy Commodities Price : What the Experts Think Energy Economics Energy Economics (with Fan Zhou, Robert Perrons, Zuduo Zheng, Simon Washington) 2019 Heritability makes world population stabilization unlikely in the foreseeable future Evolution and Human Behavior (with Jason Collins) 2018 Psychological momentum in contests : the case of scoring before half time in football Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization (with Romain Gauriot) 2018 Why did he do that ? Using counterfactuals to study the effect of intentions in extensive form games Experimental Economics (with Yola Engler and Rudi Kerschbamer) 2018 Guilt-averse or reciprocal ? Looking at behavioural motivations in the trust game. Journal of the Economic Science Association (with Yola Engler and Rudi Kerschbamer) 2017 An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets Games and Economic Behavior (with Christoph Siemroth) 2017 Can a common currency foster a shared social identity across different nations ? The case of the euro. European Economic Review (with Franz Buscha and Daniel Mueller) 2017 Do agents maximise ? Risk taking on first and second serves in tennis. Journal of Economic Psychology (with Romain Gauriot and Jeffrey Ely) 2017 The older the bolder : Does relative age among peers influence children’s preference for competition ? Journal of Economic Psychology (with Juliana Silva Goncalves and Dipa Sarkar) 2017 Winner and loser effects in human competitions. Evidence from equally matched tennis players Evolution and Human Behavior (with John Coates) 2017 Investigating Gender Differences under Time Pressure in Financial Risk Taking Frontiers in Behavioral Neuroscience (with Zhixin Xi and Ben Hardy) 2016 Gut Feelings and the Market. Interoceptive Ability Predicts Survival on a London Trading Floor Scientific Reports (joint first author, with Narayanan Kandasamy, Sarah Garfinkel, Ben Hardy, Hugo Critchley, Mark Gurnell and John Coates) 2016 Born leaders : Political selection and the relative age effect in the US Congress Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (with Daniel Mueller) 2016 Subjective beliefs about the income distribution and preferences for redis- tribution Social Choice and Welfare (with Daniel Goldstein) 2016 Detecting deceptive behaviour after the fact British Journal of Social Psychology (with William von Hippel, Ernest Baker, Robert Wilson, Loic Brin) 2015 I take care of my own : a field study on how leadership handles conflict between individual and collective incentives American Economics Review P&P (with Romain Gauriot) 2015 A New Approach to Measure Tactical Voting : Evidence from British Elec- tions Applied Economics (with Daniel Mueller) 2015 The inner quality of an article : Will time tell ? Scientometrics (with Ho Fai Chan, Malka Guilllot and Benno Torgler) 2015 Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting : evidence from a natural expe- riment European Economic Review (with Rebecca Morton, Daniel Mueller, Benno Torgler) 2014 Cortisol shifts financial risk preferences PNAS (joint first author, with Naraya- nan Kandasamya, Ben Hardy, Markus Schaffner, Johann Graggaber, Andrew Powlson, Paul Fletcher, Mark Gurnell, and John Coates) 2014 Variation in risk seeking behaviour following large losses : A natural expe- riment European Economic Review (with David Savage and Benno Torgler) 2013 Experimental economics in the classroom The Journal of Public Economics (with Amine Ouazad) 2013 Do prediction markets produce well calibrated probability forecasts ? The Economic Journal (with Clemen RT) 2012 It ain’t over till it’s over : Yogi Berra bias on sports betting markets Applied Economics 2011 Experimental economics in Economics of Education Revue d’Economie Politique 2011 The Effect of Employment while in High School on Educatio- nal Attainment : a Conditional Difference-in-Differences Approach Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics . 2009 Alone against the crowd : Individual differences in decision under pressure Journal of Economic Psychology, doi :10.1016/j.joep.2009.08.007 (with Katie Page) 2009 Last shall be first : A field study of biases in sequential performance evaluation on the Idol series. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, doi :10.1016/j.jebo.2009.08.012 (with Katie Page) 2009 A note on traders Sharpe ratio PLoS ONE 4(11) : e8036. doi :10.1371/jour- nal.pone.0008036 (with John Coates) 2009 Is there an optimistic bias on betting markets ? Economics Letters , Vol 102, No 2, p.70-72. 2009 Stakes and motivation in tournaments : playing when there is nothing to play for but pride Economic Analysis and Policy (with Katie Page) 2008 Comparing prediction market prices and opinion polls in political elections. A technical note. Journal of Prediction Markets , Vol 2, No 1, p. 91-97. 2007 Aspiration Levels and Educational Choices : An Experimental Study Economics of Education Review , Vol 26, No 6, p. 747-757. with Louis Levy-Garboua and Claude Montmarquette 2007 The Second Leg Home Advantage. Evidence from European Football Cup Competitions. Journal of Sports Sciences , Vol 25, No 14, p. 1547-1556. with Katie Page 2005 Des inégalités sociales aux inégalités scolaires : Choix éducatifs et Prospect Theory Revue Economique , Vol 56, No 3 p. 615-623.

Non peer reviewed publications

2018 Behavioral Political Economy forthcoming Journal of Economic Behavior (with Becky Morton and Sacha Bourgeois-Gironde) 2017 Economics and Biology of Contests Journal of Economic Psychology (with Changxia Ke and Roman Sheremata) 2017 Human studies : Reforms overdue for ethical reviewing Nature , Vol 544, No 161. with Katie Page

Book chapters

2017 Intuition as a complement to analytics in Jay Lebowitz, Joanna Paliszkiewicz and Jerzy Guluchowsky. “Intuition, Trust and Analytics”, Taylor and Francis . 2016 Biology of financial market instability in Steven N. Durlauf and Lawrence E. Blume. “The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics”, Online Edition, Palgrave . 2011 Markets’ ability to predict conditional probabilities : Evidence from the US Presidential campaign in Vaughan Williams, L. (ed.) “Prediction Markets”, Theory and Application. Taylor and Francis . 2010 The Role of Aspiration Levels in Educational Choices : An Economic Foun- dation in Cherkaoui M., Hamilton P. (ed.), “Raymond Boudon : a Life in Sociology”. 2008 The Second Leg Home Advantage in Andersson P., Ayton P., Schmidt C. (ed.), “Myths and Facts about Football” . Technical reports for public bodies

2010 Pupils’ Perceptions Shape Educational Achievement British Department of Education https://www.education.gov.uk/publications/eOrderingDownload/DFE- RR051.pdf 2010 Evaluating the use of judicial mediation in Employment Tribunals British Ministry of Justice http://www.justice.gov.uk/publications/docs/evaluating-judicial- mediation-march10.pdf 2009 How Young People Formulate their Views about the Future : Ex- ploratory Research British Department of Education (previously DCSF) https://www.education.gov.uk/publications/eOrderingDownload/DCSF-RR152.pdf 2008 British Gambling Prevalence Survey 2007 secondary analysis : gam- bling participation and problem gambling British Gambling Commission http://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/pdf/BGPS%202007%20Secondary%20analysis%20%20- %20Oct%202008.pdf

Refereeing (not exhaustive)

Journals Econometrica, Journal of the European Economic Association, American Economic Review Insights, Nature Communications, American Journal of Political Science, Psy- chological Science, Games and Economic Behavior, Management Science, Journal of Human Resources, European Economic Review, Experimental Economics, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society series A, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Journal of Economic Dynamic and Control Grants Australian Research Council, Marsden Fund (Royal Society of New Zealand)

Grants : $3.1m

2017 ARC Discovery Project 3 years, topic : Using behavioural economic insights to overcome student procrastination. Chief investigator with Stephen Cheung and Martin Kocher $301,500 2016 Higher Education Participation and Partnerships Programme 3 years, topic : Widening Regional and Remote Participation : Interrogating outreach programs across Queensland. Project Leader : Sue Trinidad (Curtin) $319,950 2016 ARC Discovery Project 3 years, topic : Overconfidence as an interpersonal stra- tegy in negotiation and competition. Chief investigator with William von Hippel and Changxia Ke $202,000 2015 Tobin project pilot study : The perception of inequalities and its effect on prefe- rence for redistribution : an international perspective. With Catherine Eckel, Daniel Goldstein and Philip Grossman US$5,000 2013 Auto CRC - Malaysian Automative Institute 3 years, topic : Market Intelligence and Technology Assessment 2025 - Towards a Green Mobility Solution for ASEAN and Australia. with Simon Washington, Zuduo Zheng and Robert Perrons $1,160,000 2012 Fellowship from the Australian Research Council : DECRA 3 years, topic : the behavioural effect of relative age at school $375,000 2012 Fellowship from the Queensland Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation : Smart Future Fellowship 3 years, topic : effect of cut-off dates in Queensland on children success at school $180,000 2011 Grant from the Chinese government to carry out experiments on trust among different social groups Principal investigator, with Uwe Dulleck and Yumei He $16,000 2010 QUT internal grant support scheme Principal investigator, with Uwe Dulleck and Benno Torgler $7,500 2009 Grant from the DCSF (Department for Children School and Families) to study the interacation of pupils with their teachers Principal investigator with Amine Ouazad £57,000 2008 Grant from the DCSF (Department for Children School and Families) to study the role of expectations in pupils’ educational choices with Graeme Atherton (University of Westminster), £70,000 2008 Grant from the DIUS (Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills) to study the effect of tuition fees increase on higher education participation with Peter Urwin (University of Westminster), £6,000 2008 Grant from the Gambling Commission to study gambling decisions with Leighton Vaughan Williams (Nottingham Trent University), £23,300 2006 Grant from the Ministry of Justice to evaluate mediation in employment tribunals using a field experiment Principal investigator : Peter Urwin (University of Westminster), £120,000 2006 Fellowship for a two months research stay at Duke University From the University Paris 1, $2,600 2005 Grant for a program of experimental research in Economics of Education From the French Minister of Education (application with Louis Levy Garboua and Claude Montmarquette, e45,000) 2005 Grant from the Quebec Ministry of Justice, Montreal with Claude Montmar- quette, CA$6,000 2005 Grant for a two months research stay at CIRANO & Bell experimental laboratory, Montreal From the Centre de Cooperation et d’Information Franco- Quebecois, e1,000 2001 Fellowship for a two months research stay at Brown University From the University Paris 1, $2,400

Awards

- Young Economist Award 2016 Prize from Economic Society of Australia. - NordSud International Prize for Science 2016 Prize from the Pescarabruzzo Foundation to encourage dialogue between the North and the South of the World. - QUT Vice-Chancellor’s Performance Award 2014 - Research - QUT Vice-Chancellor’s Performance Award 2012 - Research - Elsevier/IAREP Best PhD Student Paper 2007 Award from the International Association for Research in Economic Psychology for the paper “Zoon Politikon or Homo Oeconomicus, How do People Vote ? An Experimental Study on the French 2007 Presidential Elections” Media coverage/public communication

- Herald Sun, “Children who start school later gain advantage, new study shows” November 18 2019 on our research on the birthdate effect - 2SER Radio Think : Business Futures podcast, “Do we over reward luck”, August 28 2019 on our research on the outcomme bias - ABC news TV channel, 9 October 2018 interview on our research on the birth- date effect - The Conversation, “How your birth date influences how well you do in school, and later in life”, 9 October 2018 on our research on the birthdate effect - ABC news website, “How your birthday affects the rest of your life, starting with school”, 9 October 2018 on our research on the birthdate effect - Sydney Morning Herald, “The birthday effect : how the age you start school shapes your life”, 9 October 2018 on our research on the birthdate effect - ABC Melbourne, ABC Sydney, ABC Adelaide, ABC Brisbane, 9 October 2018 interview - ABC Melbourne breakfast, 18 July 2018 interview - The Conversation, “Skill vs luck : who really deserves the reward for suc- cess”, 17 July 2018 contributed article - The Age, “Why free-range eggs ’win’ over free-range mean”, 20 January 2018 interview on behavioural economics - Financial Times, “Traders on a hot winning streak risk a double fault”, 7 July 2017 on Winner and loser effects in human competitions. Evidence from equally matched tennis players - TEDxQUT talk, “To stop fake news, challenge your own views first”, May 2017 More than 200,000 views on Youtube - The Conversation, “2017 could be a turning point for European integra- tion”, 23 February 2018 contributed article - New York Times, “Trust Your Gut’ Might Actually Be Profitable Advice on Wall Street, Study Says", 19 September 2016 on Interoceptive Ability Predicts Survival on a London Trading Floor - Sydney Morning Herald, “How Economics can make your dinner taste bet- ter", 8 September 2016 on Disappointment looms around the corner - ABC radio, “Interview in Life Matters", 18 November 2015 on the ARC project on overconfidence - Australian Financial Review, “Brownlow voting biased against ineligible", 24 September 2015 - 2GB radio Sydney, "Interview", 12 February 2015 on the paper I take care of my own - Sydney Morning Herald, "Cricket players’ nervous 90s are the real thing : study", 12 February 2015 on the paper I take care of my own - ABC Brisbane, "Interview - study about cricket matches", 11 February 2015 on the paper I take care of my own - Sydney Morning Herald, "With refereeing, local flavour leaves sour taste", 29 March 2014 on the paper National bias in refereeing - The Australian, "Now there’s proof home-town refs are biased", 25 March 2014 on the paper National bias in refereeing - Courier Mail, "Elite referees’ decisions betray their true colour", 25 March 2014 on the paper National bias in refereeing - ABC Brisbane, "Interview - study about referee decisions", 24 March 2014 on the paper National bias in refereeing - Wall Street Journal, "Cortisol and Crashing Stocks", 28 February 2014 on the paper cortisol shifts financial risk preferences - The Australian, "Hormone ’worsens economic slumps’" , 19 February 2014 on the paper cortisol shifts financial risk preferences - Financial Times, "Scientists link stress hormone to financial crisis" 17 Fe- bruary 2014 on the paper cortisol shifts financial risk preferences - The Daily Mail "Did stress hormones in City traders trigger the global re- cession ?" , 17 February 2014 on the paper cortisol shifts financial risk preferences - The Daily Telegraph UK, "Trader stress could make financial crises worse, study finds", 17 February 2014 on the paper cortisol shifts financial risk prefe- rences - Daily Mail, 17 February 2012, "Why lack of male teachers could be the reason boys fail in the classroom" on the paper “Experimental Economics in the classroom” - The Independent, 16 February 2012, "Female teachers giving boys lower marks" on the paper “Experimental Economics in the classroom” - Daily Mail, “Pupils make more effort with male teachers as they are seen as ’more fair”’, 13 November 2010, on the report Pupils’ Perceptions Shape Educational Achievement - Daily Telegraph, “Pupils work harder for male teachers”, 29 October 2010, on the report Pupils’ Perceptions Shape Educational Achievement - The Independent, “Report claims refs are biased”, 29 July 2010, on the paper National bias in refereeing - BBC Radio Cambridgeshire, Interview, 4 December 2009 , on the paper Last shall be first - Financial Times, “Something for the Week End”, 5 December 2009, on the paper Last shall be first - Daily Telegraph, “Key to X Factor Success is coming last in running order”, 5 December 2009 , on the paper Last shall be first - Newstalk, National Irish Radio interview on the Sean Moncrieff show, 2 December 2009 , on the paper Last shall be first - BBC Radio 5 live, Interview, 1 December 2009 , on the paper Last shall be first - Daily Telegraph, “The eXit Factor”, 1 December 2009 , on the paper Last shall be first - Daily Telegraph, “Prudent traders more successful than risk takers”, 25 November 2009 , on the paper A note on traders Sharpe ratio - Times, “The top traders don’t need luck, just grey hairs”, 25 November 2009 , on the paper A note on traders Sharpe ratio - New York Times, “Hormones, Incentive “Make Best Traders””, 24 Novem- ber 2009 , on the paper A note on traders Sharpe ratio - Times, “The Fink Tank : referees are the key to home advantag”, 21 No- vember 2009 on the paper Alone against the Crowd - Wall Street Journal, “Last Shall Be First in Idol Economics”, 14 February 2008 on the paper Last shall be first - The Independent, “Fact or fiction ? ’Form’ in football”, 8 October 2008 , on the paper The Second leg home advantage - Der Spiegel, “Fussballmythen entzaubert”, 4 June 2008 , on the paper The Second leg home advantage - Times, “Statistics show home comfort is exaggerated”, 12 April 2008 on the paper The Second leg home advantage - Times of India, “Perfect trader a mix of hormones & drive”, 26 November 2009 , on the paper A note on traders Sharpe ratio