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COMPLIMENTARY POPULATION MONOGRAPH OF BANGLADESH POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND INTERNAL MIGRATION IN BANGLADESH November 2015 BANGLADESH BUREAU OF STATISTICS (BBS) STATISTICS AND INFORMATICS DIVISION (SID) MINISTRY OF PLANNING GOVERNMENT OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF BANGLADESH ISBN- 978-984-33-9951-9 List of Contributors in the Preparation of the Monograph Department of Statistics, University of Rajshahi 1. Dr. S. K. Bhattacharjee Professor 2. Dr. M. Sayedur Rahman Professor 3. Mr. Md. Abdul Khalek Associate Professor 4. Dr. Md. Sabiruzzaman Associate Professor 5. Dr. Md. Ripter Hossain Professor 6. Dr. Md. Mostafizur Rahman Assistant Professor Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) 1. Mr. Md. Mashud Alam Director 2. Dr. Dipankar Roy Joint Director 3. Mr. Md. Shamsul Alam Consultant Population and Housing Census 2011 4. Mr. Mostafa Ashrafuzzaman Deputy Director 5. Mr. Md. Mostak Ahmed Miah Programmer 6. Mr. Md. Khorshed Alam Assistant Statistical Officer 7. Mr. Md. Rezaul Karim Assistant Statistical Officer 8. Mr. Muhammad Abdullah Assistant Statistical Officer Formatting: SOMPADONA, an editing and indexing house Email- [email protected] Cover design: Buzzuuka Marketing Communications House # 398-A, Road # 29, New DOHS Mohakhali, Dhaka-1206 Email- [email protected] Published by: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) Statistics and Informatics Division (SID) Ministry of Planning Website: www.bbs.gov.bd Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in collaboration with Department of Statistics, University of Rajshahi. This book or any portion thereof cannot be copied, microfilmed or reproduced for any commercial purpose. Data therein can, however, be used and published with acknowledgement of their sources. Population Distribution and Internal Migration / iv Contents Message of Honorable Minister, Ministry of Planning xiii Message of Honorable State Minister, Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Planning xv Foreword xvii Preface xix Message of Representative, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) xxi Acknowledgements xxiii Executive Summary xxv 1. INTRODUCTION 1-10 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Background 5 1.3 Basic Concepts and Definitions 6 1.4 Objectives of the Study 8 1.5 Methodology 8 1.6 Structure of the Monograph 10 2. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION 11-26 2.1 Introduction 11 2.2 Population Size 11 2.3 Population Distribution by Division 15 2.4 Population Growth 18 2.5 Population Density 19 2.6 Distribution of Floating Population 22 3. PATTERN, TREND AND DIFFERENTIAL OF INTERNAL MIGRATION 27-62 3.1 Introduction 27 3.2 Internal Migration 27 3.3 Transition Probability Matrix 33 3.4 Duration of Residence 35 3.5 Sex Selectivity of Migration 38 3.6 Distribution of Migrants and Differentials 40 3.7 Regional Variation of Internal Migration: Spatial Distribution 48 3.8 Internal Migration and Human Capital 58 Population Distribution and Internal Migration / v 4. HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS AND LIVING STANDARD OF INTERNAL 63-74 MIGRANTS 4.1 Housing Characteristics of Internal Migrants 63 4.2 Wealth Index of Migrants 68 5. DETERMINANTS AND FACTORS OF INTERNAL MIGRATION 75-81 Determinants of Internal Migration 5.1 75 5.2 Causes of Migration: Pull and Push Factors 77 6. PATTERNS AND TRENDS OF URBANIZATION IN BANGLADESH 83-114 Introduction 6.1 83 6.2 Level of Urbanization and Urban Growth 83 6.3 Trend of Urbanization in Bangladesh, 1891 - 2011 85 6.4 Trend of Urbanization by Division (1961 - 2011) 88 6.5 Consistency of the Regions 89 6.6 Urban-Rural Ratio 94 6.7 Urban Demographic Characteristics 94 6.8 Dependency Ratio 97 6.9 Sex-Ratio of Population during 1901 - 2011 99 6.10 Sex-Ratio by Locality 100 6.11 Household and Housing Characteristics 102 6.12 Average Size of Household 103 6.13 Working and Dependent Population 106 6.14 Source of Drinking Water 108 6.15 Toilet Facility 111 6.16 Access to Electricity 112 6.17 Summary and Conclusion 113 7. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 115-119 7.1 Conclusion 115 7.2 Policy Recommendations 119 Annex-I Table 1: Population and dependency ratio distribution by age and district, 2011 121 Table 2: Transition probability matrix at different steps 123 Annex-II Abbreviations 127 Annex-III References 129 Annex-IV Expert Panel for Population Monographs 133 Population Distribution and Internal Migration / vi List of Tables 2.1 Population distribution with ranks, 1991, 2001 and 2011 12 2.2 Population distribution with ranks, 1901 - 2011 15 2.3 Population distribution by division, sex and residence, 2011 16 2.4 Average annual population growth (Exponential), 1901 - 2011 18 2.5 Population density by division, 1901 to 2011 19 2.6 Distribution of floating population by division, sex and residence, 22 2011 2.7 Distribution of floating population and density with rank by district, 24 2011 3.1 Bivariate distribution of birth place and current residence of lifetime 28 migrants by division, 2011 3.2 Distribution of in-migration by division, 2011 (lifetime migration) 30 3.3 Percent distribution of migrants by birth division, 2011 (lifetime 30 migration) 3.4 Bivariate distribution of birth place and current residence by division, 31 2011 (migration less than 5 years) 3.5 Distribution of in-migration by division, 2011 (migration less than 5 32 years) 3.6 Percent distribution of migrants by birth division, 2011 (migration 32 less than 5 years) 3.7 Transition probability matrix for lifetime migration 33 3.8 Transition probability matrix of migration: less than 5 years 34 3.9 2-step and 15-step transition matrices of migrants 34 3.10 Migrants’ distribution by current division, duration and sex, 2011: 36 percentage within division. 3.11 Migrants’ distribution by current division, duration and sex, 2011: 37 percentage between division 3.12 Migrants classified by birth division and duration of residence, 2011: 39 percentage of total in each duration 3.13 Migrants classified by birth division and duration of residence, 2011: 40 percentage of total in each division 4.1 Results from principal components analysis 68 4.2 Total variation explained by the principal components 69 4.3 Wealth index quantiles of internal migrants 71 5.1 Relation of socio-demographic variables with internal migration and 76 logistic regression output 5.2 Factors of internal migration 79 6.1 Distribution of population, level of urbanization, inter-census 85 variation and urban growth rate, 1891 - 2011 Population Distribution and Internal Migration / vii 6.2 Divisional trend of urbanization in Bangladesh, 1961-2011 88 6.3 Comparison between LOU and SOUP with rank by division, 1961- 89 2011 6.4 Correlation matrix for LOU 90 6.5 Correlation matrix for SOUP 90 6.6 Dependency ratio in urban areas by sex, 1981 - 2011 98 6.7 Sex-Ratio by Division & residence, 1991-2011 101 6.8 Main House of the General Household by Type of Structure, 2011 102 6.9 Urban Household by Type, 2011 102 6.10 Growth rate of general household by residence, 1974-2011 103 6.11 Dwelling household by number of persons, 1981-2011 104 Population Distribution and Internal Migration / viii List of Figures 2.1 Population distribution, 1901 – 2011 11 2.2 Divisional position based on population size, 1901 – 2011 16 2.3 Population distribution by division in percent, 1901 – 2011 16 2.4 Average annual population growth rate (Exponential), 1901 – 2011 18 2.5 Rank (descending order) of population density by Division, 1901-2011 20 2.6 Scatter plot of floating population and density, 2011 26 3.1 Duration of current residence of Migrants, 2011 38 3.2 Distribution of migrants by division and residence, 2004, 2011 41 3.3 Distribution of internal migrants by sex, 2004, 2011 42 3.4 Distribution of internal migrants by religion, 2011 42 3.5 Ethnicity of internal migrants, 2011 43 3.6 Distribution of Internal Migrants by age groups, 2004, 2011 43 3.7 Age of Internal Migrants 45 3.8 Distribution of marital Status of Internal Migrants, 2004, 2011 46 3.9 Distribution of age at first Marriage of Internal Migrants by sex, 2004, 47 2011 3.10 Distribution of age at first Marriage of Internal Migrants by residence, 47 2004, 2011 3.11 Distribution of literacy of Internal Migrants, 2011 58 3.12 School Attendance of Internal Migrants, 2011 58 3.13 Highest Class Passed by Internal Migrants, 2004, 2011 59 3.14 Education Fields of Internal Migrants, 2004, 2011 60 3.15 Economic Activity of Internal Migrants, 2011 61 3.16 Activity Status of Internal Migrants, 2004, 2011 61 3.17 Working Hours of Internal Migrants, 2011 62 4.1 Distribution of Land Ownership of Internal Migrants, 2011 63 4.2 Distribution of House Ownership of Internal Migrants, 2011 63 4.3 Tenancy of Internal Migrants 64 4.4 Distribution of Wall Materials of House of Internal Migrants, 2011 64 4.5 Distribution of Roof Materials of House of Internal Migrants, 2011 65 4.6 Distribution of floor materials of internal migrants, 2011 65 4.7 Toilet Facility of House of Internal Migrants, 2011 65 4.8 Distribution of Waste Management of House of Internal Migrants, 2011 66 4.9 Distribution of Source of Light of House of Internal Migrants, 2011 66 4.10 Household Materials of House of Internal Migrants, 2011 67 4.11 Scree Plot of Principal Components Analysis 69 5.1 Distribution of migrants by cause, 2004, 2011 78 Population Distribution and Internal Migration / ix 6.1 Trend of urbanization in Bangladesh, 1891 - 2011 86 6.2 Distribution of level of urban growth, 1891-2011 86 6.3 : Distribution of urbanization by division, 1961-2011 89 6.4 Distribution of intercensal urban variation (in percent), 1901 - 2011 91 6.5 Comparison between total
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