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Early Warning of Snow-Caused Disasters in Pastoral Areas on the Discussions Open Access Open Access Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Atmospheric Measurement Measurement W EGU Journal Logos (RGB) Open Access Open Access Open Access Advances in Annales Nonlinear Processes Geosciences Geophysicae in Geophysics Open Access Open Access Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1411–1425, 2013 Natural Hazards Natural Hazards www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/13/1411/2013/ doi:10.5194/nhess-13-1411-2013 and Earth System and Earth System © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Sciences Sciences Discussions Open Access Open Access Atmospheric Atmospheric Chemistry Chemistry and Physics and Physics Early warning of snow-caused disasters in pastoral areas on the Discussions Open Access Open Access Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Atmospheric Measurement Measurement W. Wang1, T. Liang1, X. Huang1, Q. Feng1, H. Xie2, X. Liu1, M. Chen1, and X. Wang1 Techniques Techniques 1 State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystems; College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Discussions Open Access Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, China Open Access 2Department of Geological Sciences, University of Texas at San Antonio, Texas 78249, USA Biogeosciences Biogeosciences Correspondence to: T. Liang ([email protected]) Discussions Received: 10 November 2012 – Published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: – Revised: 20 April 2013 – Accepted: 25 April 2013 – Published: 5 June 2013 Open Access Open Access Climate Climate Abstract. This study develops a model for early warning of 1991; Pulliainen et al., 2006;of Lemke the et Past al., 2007; Martelloni of the Past snow-caused livestock disasters on a county basis and pro- et al., 2013). In pastoral areas, a great deal of snowfall of- Discussions poses a method of qualitative risk assessment of snow dis- ten leads to grassland being buried and transportation disrup- asters at 500 m resolution for pastoral areas on the Tibetan tion, resulting in a large number of deaths of livestock due Open Access Open Access Plateau (TP). Data used for the model development include to lower temperature and lack of forage stock. This has a se- Earth System remote sensing data, statistical data of weather, livestock, vere influence on the sustainableEarth developmentSystem of grassland and social economy, and 45 typical snow disaster cases from animal husbandry. In China, theDynamics natural disaster resulting in Dynamics 2000 to 2010. The principal component analysis (PCA) ap- a large amount of livestock deaths by continuous snowfall Discussions proach is used to choose 7 crucial factors that contribute over in winter and spring is called snow-caused livestock disaster 85 % of information for early warning snow disasters on the (Liang et al., 2007) or snow disaster in this paper. For exam- Open Access TP. They are mean annual probability of snow disaster, num- ple, in the spring of 2008 a heavyGeoscientific snowfall led to a snow dis- Geoscientific Open Access ber of snow-covered days, livestock stocking rate, contin- aster in 37 counties/citiesInstrumentation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP), with Instrumentation ◦ 5 ual days of mean daily temperature below −10 C, grass- 3.54×10 livestock deaths andMethods 1910 million and RMB losses. Methods and land burial index, rate of snow-covered grassland, and per Early warning and risk assessment are the two upmost livestock gross domestic product. The chosen 411 cases from important yet difficult issuesData in theSystems study of snow-caused Data Systems 2008 to 2010 are used to validate the prediction results from livestock disasters in pastoral areas. Early warning of snow Discussions Open Access Open Access the developed early warning model, with an overall accuracy disasters involves many factors such as grassland, snow, Geoscientific of 85.64 % in predicting snow disasters and no disasters. This weather, livestock, societyGeoscientific and economy, of which many have suggests that the early warning approach developed in the strong temporal and spatial heterogeneity. The accuracy of Model Development Model Development study has operational potential for predicting snow disasters warning results is not only closely related to weather fore- Discussions on the TP. casting information, but also connected with regional en- vironment conditions and capability of disaster prevention. Open Access Open Access Therefore, the premise forHydrology an operational and snow disaster warn- Hydrology and ing system is to (1) establish a long-term series of regional 1 Introduction snow disaster monitoringEarth databases System and management infor- Earth System mation system using remote sensing,Sciences ground-based observa- Sciences Snow cover is an important part of land cover and one of tion data and weather prediction data; (2) dynamically mon- the most active natural elements on the Earth surface. The Discussions Open Access itor the hazard-affected objects and natural environmentOpen Access in dynamic change of snow cover area (SCA) has great influ- pastoral areas; and (3) establish snow disaster warning and ence on the surface albedo, climate change, hydrological cir- risk assessment models. Furthermore, studying early warn- Ocean Science culation and energy balance, as well as social economy and Ocean Science ing mechanisms of snow disasters is extremely important in Discussions ecological environment (Robock et al., 1980; Bloschl¨ et al., Open Access Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. Open Access Solid Earth Solid Earth Discussions Open Access Open Access The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions 1412 W. Wang et al.: Early warning of snow-caused disasters in pastoral areas both theory and operational practice for improving the ability disaster warning and risk assessments, due to lacking opera- to prevent disaster and minimize losses in pastoral areas. tional models and information system for real-time warning Snow disaster warning and risk assessment have been of snow disasters (Liang et al., 2007). studied for a long time. Many studies have been conducted Considering the above factors and characteristics of grass- on snow cover area monitoring (Gutzler and Rosen, 1992; land and livestock production on the TP, the purposes of Hall et al., 2001; Liang et al., 2008b; Wang and Xie, 2009; this study are (1) to establish an indicator system for early Gao et al., 2010; Paudel et al., 2011), snow depth (SD) warning of snow-caused livestock disasters and risk assess- simulation (Stowe et al., 1991; Chang et al., 1996; Che et ment based on collections of snow disasters in the past 10 yr al., 2012; Frei et al., 2012; Yu et al., 2012), snow disas- (2001–2010) on the TP; and (2) to establish a model for early ter risk assessment (Romanov et al., 2002), loss evaluation warning and qualitative risk assessment of snow disasters post-disaster (i.e., the research for the pastoral areas after and to validate the model. This study would provide a scien- snow disasters have occurred and have resulted in losses tific basis for early warning, risk assessment, and decision- of livestock) (Nakamura and Shindo, 2001), snow disaster making of disaster prevention and relief management for the and avalanche mapping, as well as their relations to climate research community and local governments. change (Jones and Jamieson, 2001; Hendrikx et al., 2005; Bocchiola et al., 2008; Delparte et al., 2008; Hirashima et al., 2008; Lato et al., 2012). In 2006, the Chinese govern- 2 Study area and data ment issued a national standard for grading snow disasters in pastoral area (GB/T 20482-2006) (General Administration of 2.1 Study area Quality Supervision of China, 2006). According to the stan- dard, Zhou et al. (2006) analyzed the potential conditions of The TP (26◦0001200N – 39◦ 4605000N and 73◦1805200E– snow disasters based on evaluating vulnerability of hazard- 104◦4605900E) is located in southwestern China. Its major affected bodies and dynamic change of precipitation in the part is in Qinghai and Tibet provinces, with mean elevation natural environment. Liu et al. (2008) did a preliminary study above 4000 m, containing the highest pastoral areas in the on an indicating system for early warning and hazard assess- world. The TP is not only the water source region of many ment models of snow disasters in pastoral areas of northern Asian rivers such as the Yellow, Yangtze and Lantsang rivers, Xinjiang, utilizing livestock mortality rate as a factor of dis- but also one of the three major snowfall regions in China. It aster assessment. Zhang et al. (2008) proposed some indi- consists of 201 counties that belong to Qinghai, Xinjiang, Ti- cators and methods for quantification of those indicators for bet, Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan provinces, with a total area early warning of snow disaster in the pastoral areas of north- of 2.57 × 106 km2, corresponding to 26.8 % of the total areal ern Qinghai Province. Tachiiri et al. (2008) evaluated the eco- extension of China (Fig. 1) (Zhang et al., 2002). The TP has nomic loss of snow disasters in arid inland pastoral areas of the unique alpine meadow in the world because of its spe- Mongolia using a tree-based regression model with parame- cial geography, climate and natural conditions. It is an im- ters including livestock mortality rate of current year, grass- portant habitat for yak, Tibetan sheep and many rare wild land NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), SWE animals. However, because of the undeveloped agriculture (snow water equivalent), and livestock numbers and mortal- infrastructure in the region, heavy snow in winter or spring ity rates of previous years. In addition, Tominaga et al. (2011) often causes death of a large number of livestock due to cold predicted snow cover area and potential extent of snow disas- weather and forage shortage. This has a great negative in- ters in built-up environments by combining a meteorological fluence on the sustainable development of grassland animal model and a computational fluid dynamics model. Nakai et husbandry. According to the records (Liu, 2008a; Liu, 2008b; al. (2012) established a snow disaster early warning system Shi, 2008; Wang, 2008; Wen, 2008; Zhan, 2008), there have using meteorological factors (i.e., precipitation, wind speed, been 3228 snow disasters in this region since 1949.
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