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the CONSERVATION STRATEGY FACT SHEET

Climate Change and Oregon’s Estuaries

Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife stuaries are complex and highly productive that occur where freshwater rivers meet the Eocean. Oregon’s estuaries provide many benefits. They: • Provide wintering habitat for waterfowl, stopover feeding areas for migrating shorebirds, and year-round habitat for many other fish, wildlife, and aquatic plant species; • Serve as breeding and nursery grounds for many rockfish species and as refuge and feeding grounds for a wide variety of , mollusks, and fish, including juvenile salmon on their way to the and perhaps three-quarters of Oregon’s harvested fish species;1 • Buffer wave damage during storms and help stabilize shorelines; and • Improve by filtering out sediment and nutrients, and by removing pathogens and other contaminants.2

Estuary systems already face a number of threats. Development, diking, and drainage in coastal areas have resulted in the loss of over 20 percent of Oregon’s estuary habitat, with much higher losses in specific estuaries (such as Nestucca Bay at 65 percent and the Salmon River estuary at 42 percent) and in particular habitat types (including 68 percent of tidal marshes and swamps).3 Sediment and from upstream activities and dredging have diminished eelgrass beds. Upstream water diversions have also changed the amount, timing, and quality of freshwater inflows, which are critical to estuary health. Non-native plant and animal species have invaded many Oregon estuaries.

Rapid change will bring new threats to Oregon’s estuaries and may intensify many of the existing problems. Warming , rising levels, changing precipitation patterns, and will all play major roles in shaping estuarine ecosystems for many decades or even centuries to come.

The Oregon Department Fish and Wildlife and its conservation partners are working to develop new approaches to conserving estuaries and their ecological values in the face of rapid . These include:

• Protecting land upstream of important estuaries from development to allow these areas of habitat to move in response to climate change; • Improving management of watersheds that feed sediment and fresh water into estuaries to help counteract the effects of climate-related changes; and • Educating the public and decision-makers about the importance of limiting bulkheading and other kinds of shoreline armoring that limit the inland migration of estuaries in response to sea-level rise.

Using these and other climate change adaptation strategies, we can help estuary habitats and the fish and wildlife that live there adjust to changing conditions and be more resilient to current and future threats.

Overview of climate change impacts

arming temperatures: During the last century, Recent models indicate additional increases in average Wthe Pacific Northwest experienced overall annual of 3.2°F by the 2040s and 5.3°F warming of about 1.5° F. This trend is expected to by the 2080s for the Pacific Northwest.4 Coastal sea continue and to accelerate through at least this century, surface temperatures in the region are projected to although temperatures beyond the year 2050 will be increase about 2.2°F by the 2040s, when compared to highly dependent on future emissions. the period between 1970 and 1999.

Cover photos: Nestucca Bay. Photo Roy W. Lowe, USFWS. Western sandpiper. Photo Wikipedia. Poole Slough Yaquina Bay. Photo Bruce Taylor.

1 Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife : Warming temperatures are driving Absorption of CO2 helps buffer the from some of rising sea levels in two ways: indirectly, by melting the effects of increased emissions, but it also and ice caps that add freshwater to the ocean, makes ocean waters more acidic (that is, the pH is and directly, through the expansion of water as the lowered). Since 1750, the pH of has dropped warm. (Warm water takes up a greater volume significantly (about 0.1 globally).15 That means water than cold water.) After 2000 years of relative stability, is about 1 ¼ times more acidic today. In the future, average global sea levels have risen about 8 inches in surface-water pH could decrease by an additional 0.4 the last 100 years.6 Recent research suggests that a (2 ½ times more acidic) by the end of this century. The global sea-level rise of 3 to 4 feet by the end of the extra acidity interferes with marine creatures’ ability century is likely if continue on to build shells, putting marine ecosystems at risk and their current path.7 Along the Oregon , the amount causing economic losses in communities that depend on of local sea-level rise will vary considerably because of production and harvesting.16 For perspective, local land subsidence and uplift processes.8 there is no evidence that ocean pH has been lower than 0.5 below present values for at least the past 300 Coastal storms and wave height: Climate change is million years.17 These changes are expected to persist expected to increase the intensity and possibly also the for centuries, even if atmospheric frequency of coastal storms.9 In recent decades, there concentrations return to pre-industrial levels. has been an increase in storm intensity and wave height across the Pacific Northwest, which may be associated with global climate change, regional climate variability, Implications for Oregon’s estuaries or a combination of the two.10 Each of these trends will tend to increase the effects of sea-level rise on coastal Coastal inundation and : Coastal wetlands have areas as storm events cause shoreline erosion and persisted through past changes in ocean levels because reshape estuaries.11 of the natural build-up of sediment and organic matter, which raises the elevation of the wetland floor over time Changes in precipitation and freshwater runoff: as the sea level rises. However, in some estuary systems Over the next century, annual precipitation in the Pacific future ocean levels may rise too quickly to allow Northwest is expected to stay within the range of wetlands to keep pace with sea-level rise. In that case, natural variability. However, we are likely to see a these habitats will be flooded or lost (that is, converted moderate increase in winter precipitation and a decrease to open water habitat) unless they have room to 18 in summer precipitation.12 Precipitation could also be “migrate” upslope to adjust to rising water levels. less frequent but more intense in the future: There has In many developed areas of the coast, sea walls, been a widespread, long-term trend toward more heavy bulkheading, rip rapping, and other kinds of shoreline precipitation events, and that trend is expected to armoring prevent landward migration of estuary continue.13 systems. Today, as sea-level and erosion trends become visible on the coastline, state agencies are seeing an As temperatures warm, more of our winter precipita- increase in requests for shoreline armoring permits. tion will fall as instead of snow, reducing snowpack and changing the timing and amount of flow in rivers and streams that are primarily fed by snowmelt.14 The estuary is the Oregon estuary most affected by this shift, as most others are already influenced more by rain than snow events. Many of the tributary watersheds to the Columbia River have already seen a 60 percent or greater decrease in April 1st snow water equivalent over the past 50 years; projected decreases are even greater.

Ocean acidification: Human activities increase the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the , and oceans absorb a significant fraction of this gas. Chinook salmon. Photo Wikipedia.

Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife 2 Unfortunately, armoring comes with a price for estuaries. including the amount of light, dissolved oxygen, and Coastal armoring and some upstream land uses can carbon available to estuarine species, the occurrence of reduce sediment supply, making it less likely that harmful algae blooms, and rates of nitrogen fixation sediment build-up will keep pace with sea-level rise. and denitrification.21

As a result, estuaries where migration and sedimentation Hydrological cycles on land also greatly affect the are constrained by development or upstream land uses are functioning of estuary systems by determining the the most likely to convert to open water marine quantity and timing of freshwater inflows and the habitat as sea levels rise. sediments, nutrients, and contaminants that come with them.22 For example, changes in snowmelt are expected Some studies have suggested that rates of coastal to result in increased winter flow and decreased summer erosion may be more impacted by coastal protection flow.23 Increasing temperatures, combined with continu- strategies – in other words, how we choose to react to ally increasing human use of water, are very likely to rising sea levels – and by the changes in storm intensity decrease the overall freshwater input to estuaries, affect- and frequency described above than by the direct results ing sediment inputs, water movement, water quality, and of sea-level rise.19 salinity. These changes can in turn cause stress to plant Changes in biological, chemical, and physical processes: and animal populations and may even cause a major 24 The key processes that drive the productivity of estuaries shift in vegetation communities in an estuary. Reduced are complex and often interrelated. These processes freshwater flows into estuaries may further exacerbate determine the plant and animal species found there, and the increases in salinity that are expected to result from affect the benefits they provide us. As a result, predicting sea-level rise. the exact ecological outcomes of climate change on Warmer, wetter winters and more extreme precipitation these systems is difficult.20 However, important factors, such events would also increase the likelihood of winter as the salinity of estuarine waters, the amount of flooding in western Oregon streams and rivers, which sediment in the water and on the estuary floor, how may in turn lead to large pulses of freshwater and much sunlight reaches plants, and the chemical sediment input in estuaries.25 Activities such as road composition of water, are all very likely to be affected building and timber harvest can diminish the capacity by climate change. of natural systems to buffer these events.26 Temperature increases can affect a wide variety of biological and chemical processes in estuarine systems,

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION The absorption of carbon Atmospheric Less More dioxide from the atmosphere acidic acidic reduces the availability of carbon dioxide ions through a CO2 chemical reaction with seawater. These ions are necessary for the formation Dissolved carbon Carbonic Ions of skeletons and shells in dioxide Water many marine organisms. + CO2 H2O H2CO3 H As more carbon dioxide is absorbed from the Ions atmosphere, oceans Carbonate will become more acidic. HCO3-1 Ions CO3-2

Deformed shells

3 Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife life, especially invertebrates.33 Shell or skeletal material builds more slowly and eventually begins to dissolve as waters become more acidic. While the current impact of ocean acidification on these species is poorly understood, significant changes are expected within decades.34 Any harm to invertebrate life is likely to have cascading effects throughout marine and coastal food webs, with implications for both marine and human communities, because pH-sensitive invertebrates in estuaries form the food for many ecologically and economically important species.

Managing for climate-adaptive estuaries The trends described here – warming temperatures, rising sea levels, changing precipitation and hydrologic patterns, China rockfish. Photo Brandon Ford. and acidifying oceans – are expected not only to continue Shifts in species and loss: All of the for many decades or centuries but also to accelerate until changes described here are likely to cause a shift in the human-generated greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. plant and animal species found in Oregon estuaries. For each of these trends, there is enough evidence and Researchers have already documented a northern shift in certainty now to allow us to start making management the ranges of many species in the northern hemisphere. decisions with likely future climate conditions in mind. One study found an average pole-ward range shift of Sea-level rise is one of the climate change impacts 3.8 miles per decade for terrestrial species globally.27 about which we have the most certainty. We know that Much larger shifts, up to hundreds of miles, have been sea levels will continue to rise, although we cannot know documented for some marine species.28 Some exactly how high they will rise or how soon. In the face species also move in response to variables other than of these changes, coastal communities will have two direct warming, such as the availability of food or options: try to hold back the sea or let the shoreline moisture, water depth, salinity, or water chemistry. retreat.35 The decisions coastal communities make about Differences in the way species, populations, and when and where to build protective structures will have a individuals respond to climate change are expected to significant impact on the future health and productivity of create completely new ecological communities.29 Some estuary habitats. species will not be able to adapt by moving as the climate changes, because suitable habitat is not available In the face of rapid sea-level rise, it is very likely that or accessible, or because the species is unable to move many estuaries that are blocked from moving inland will far enough or fast enough to respond to rapid changes. be inundated and will change to open water habitat. Land In some species, higher temperatures and other changes use decisions about how and when to retreat from shore- can disrupt reproduction or cause mismatches in the lines and where to allow or preclude coastal development timing of life events between interdependent species.30 will play a critical role in estuary conservation for at least Higher temperatures may also increase the frequency the next century. and severity of outbreaks of nonnative and lead to increased rates of disease and parasitism, Efforts to protect and restore estuaries should focus creating new stresses on native species.31 on areas where this upstream migration remains possible. Models that predict local sea levels can identify the Ocean acidification presents a unique challenge for systems most likely to be at risk, and, together with maps coastal and marine food webs. When carbon dioxide of coastal infrastructure and other barriers, can help reacts with seawater, it reduces the availability of the prioritize areas for protection. carbonate ions that species such as shellfish, marine , and use to build their skeletons and Responding to many of the other climate change impacts shells.32 There is also evidence that increased acidity outlined here will be more complex. Allowing species, lowers the metabolic and growth rates of some marine populations, and individuals to shift in response to climate

Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife 4 change is important and will require conservation into estuaries will help buffer species from some of areas to be large, numerous, and connected enough the negative effects of acidification. These kinds to accommodate these shifts. However, in some cases, of strategies are often referred to as “no regrets” more suitable habitat will not be available or accessible, strategies, because they are likely to improve and those estuaries will be lost or diminished. health regardless of future climate conditions.

In these cases, management actions will have to focus, Climate change is fast becoming a reality in fish and at least in the short term, on reducing the non-climate wildlife management. Planning and adaptive manage- threats that climate change intensifies. For example, ment actions must consider the best available on improving the complexity and health of upstream future climate conditions and focus on strategies that riparian areas can help cool water temperatures and are likely to meet management goals in a warmer and improve water quantity and quality in estuaries. This less predictable world. Protecting estuaries and their fish, type of restoration and management will help buffer wildlife, and plant species can help build the resilience of estuaries from the effects of changing temperature both human and natural communities to the changes and precipitation regimes. Likewise, reducing the to come. flow of excess nutrients, sediment, and

Siuslaw estuary. Photo USFWS.

5 Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife Oregon’s shorebirds in a changing world Flocks of migrating western sandpipers (Calidris mauri) provide the with one of its most spectacular sights. These small shorebirds visit Oregon estuaries in spring and fall as they travel between their Alaskan breeding grounds and their wintering grounds to the south, often collecting in groups of many thousands of birds. As many as 100,000 western sandpipers have been observed in at one time during migration periods. Smaller numbers of these birds also spend the winter in Oregon.

Western sandpipers migrate between points as far north as the North Slope of Alaska, and as far south as the coast of Peru. In order to make these long migrations successfully, they generally stop several times along the way to feed for a few days and then continue their migration. In Oregon, both migrating and winter resident western sandpipers depend heavily on tidal mud flats. These very productive areas provide a ready supply of sandpipers’ main food sources: invertebrates, such as crustaceans, worms, and small clams, and biofilm, a very thin layer of slime made of microbes, organic matter, and sediment. As a result, Oregon estuaries provide a critical food source for western sandpipers and other similar shorebirds during their long spring and fall migrations. The birds’ ability Black brant. Photo Don Becker, USGS. to complete migration, as well as to breed successfully when they reach their destination, depends very much on the availability of suitable feeding habitat along their migration routes.

Western sandpipers are the most common shorebird along the Pacific coast, and they are not currently threatened or endangered. However, these charismatic birds have been affected by degradation of estuaries, and climate change is likely to cause them further problems. In Oregon, rising sea levels are expected to convert many current tidal flats into open water over the next 50-100 years, and where these habitats are hemmed in by diking or develop- ment, they are unlikely to be able to shift inland. The loss of this productive feeding habitat may cause problems for migrating western sandpipers. Other changes in estuaries that affect vegetation and invertebrate communities may also decrease food availability. Maintaining high-quality stopover sites in the face of rising should be a priority in future efforts to conserve these birds. Bildstein, K. L, G. T Bancroft, P. J Dugan, D. H Gordon, R. M Erwin, E. Nol, L. X Western sandpiper. Photo Dave Herr, USFWS. Payne, and S. E Senner. 1991. Approaches to the conservation of coastal wetlands in the Western Hemisphere. The Wilson Bulletin 103, no. 2: 218–254.

Erwin, R. M, G. M Sanders, D. J Prosser, and D. R Cahoon. 2006. High tides and rising seas: potential effects on estuarine waterbirds. Studies in Avian Biology 32: 214. Iverson, G. C, S. E Warnock, R. W Butler, M. A Bishop, and N. Warnock. 1996. Spring migration of Western Sandpipers along the Pacific coast of : a telemetry study. Condor: 10–21. Kuwae, T., P. G Beninger, P. Decottignies, K. J Mathot, D. R Lund, and R. W Elner. 2008. Biofilm grazing in a higher vertebrate: the Western Sandpiper, Calidris mauri. Ecology 89, no. 3: 599–606. Marshall, David, and Oregon Breeding Bird Atlas Project. 2003. Birds of Oregon: a general reference. Corvallis OR.: Oregon State University Press. Blue heron. Photo Nick Myatt.

Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife 6 Eelgrass meadows: a “coastal canary”? with global climate change. Eelgrass is sensitive to the decreased levels Eelgrass (Zostera marina) is a seagrass that forms extensive, highly of light found in deeper water, so rising sea levels may cause a shift in productive meadows in many Pacific Northwest estuaries. Eelgrass their distribution. Any increase in the amount of sediment in estuarine and other seagrass species act as important “ecological engineers,” waters resulting from changing precipitation patterns or other causes stabilizing sediment, producing organic carbon, cycling nutrients, and might also force a landward shift by decreasing the amount of light providing food and refuge for a wide diversity of species. Eelgrass is available at current elevations. Eelgrass is most successful within a often considered an indicator of estuary health, in part because it serves very narrow water temperature range (41-46°F) and is stressed by as a key habitat for large numbers of fish, especially during their early higher temperatures. life cycles. Eelgrass meadows are particularly recognized as important Scientists have been tracking an apparent global decline in seagrasses nursery and feeding areas for juvenile salmon and , that is most likely due to a combination of climate and other stressors. and they also provide important feeding areas for charismatic shorebird The important role eelgrass plays in the health and productivity of Or- species such as blue herons, as well as mammals and raptors. As with egon’s estuaries – and the fish and wildlife that depend on them – ar- other species affected by climate change, eelgrass is also subject to gues for closely tracking its distribution and response to climate change non-climate stressors, including shoreline development, dredging, and other human-caused threats. Mitigating these other impacts may (abnormally high nutrient levels that can lead to the help eelgrass meadows respond adaptively to unavoidable changes in depletion of oxygen in the water and other negative impacts), and temperature, light, and sea level. damage from ship wakes and recreational use. Orth, R.J., et al. A global crisis for seagrass ecosystems. BioScience 56 The health of eelgrass systems is dependent on many factors, including (12), 987-996 (2006). the level of light they receive, the temperature, salinity, and nutrient level of estuaries, and the action of waves, currents, and tides. A study Thom, R.M., et al. Factors influencing spatial and annual variability in of the effect of changes in temperature and salinity on eelgrass found eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) meadows in Willapa Bay, , and that it could be negatively affected by some of the trends associated , Oregon, estuaries. Estuaries 26 (4B), 1117-1129 (2003).

Shorebirds. Photo David Ledig, USFWS.

7 Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife REFERENCES

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9 Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife Tillamook Bay. Photo Kathy Munsel.

the OREGON CONSERVATION STRATEGY

Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife 3406 Cherry Ave N.E. Salem, OR 97303 (503) 947-6000 www.dfw.state.or.us