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Fuel Consumption and Emissions from Navigation in Denmark from 1990-2005

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Fuel Consumption and Emissions from Navigation in Denmark from 1990-2005 National Environmental Research Institute University of Aarhus . Denmark NERI Technical Report No. 650, 2008 Fuel consumption and emissions from navigation in Denmark from 1990-2005 – and projections from 2006-2030 [Blank page] National Environmental Research Institute University of Aarhus . Denmark NERI Technical Report No. 650, 2008 Fuel consumption and emissions from navigation in Denmark from 1990-2005 – and projections from 2006-2030 Morten Winther 'DWDVKHHW Series title and no.: NERI Technical Report No. 650 Title: Fuel consumption and emissions from navigation in Denmark from 1990-2005 - and projections from 2006-2030 Author: Morten Winther Department: Department of Policy Analysis Publisher: National Environmental Research Institute University of Aarhus - Denmark URL: http://www.neri.dk Year of publication: December 2007 Editing completed: December 2007 Referee: Hans Otto Kristensen, the Technical University of Denmark Financial support: Danish Environmental Protection Agency Please cite as: Winther, M. 2007: Fuel consumption and emissions from navigation in Denmark from 1990- 2005 - and projections from 2006-2030. National Environmental Research Institute, University of Aarhus, Denmark. 109 pp. – NERI Technical Report No. 650. http://www.dmu.dk/Pub/FR650.pdf Reproduction permitted provided the source is explicitly acknowledged Abstract: This report documents the fuel consumption and emission inventory for navigation (national sea transport, fisheries and international sea transport) in Denmark, for the historical period 1990- 2005 and the forecast period 2006-2030. The inventory follows the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Changes), and the UNECE CLRTAP (United Nations Eco- nomic Commission for Europe Convention of Long Range Transboundary Air Pollutants) con- vention rules. The emission components considered are SO2, NOX, VOC (NMVOC and CH4) CO, CO2, N2O and particulates (TSP, PM10 and PM2.5). International sea transport is the most dominant source of emissions from navigation. For national sea transport, a new time series of fuel consumption has been calculated which is considered as much more accurate than fuel sales data reported by the Danish Energy Authority (DEA). The introduction of engine age de- pendent fuel consumption and emission factors has improved the accuracy of the inventory time series results considerably. Results show a need for more strict fuel quality and NOx emission standards for navigation in the future, in order to gain emission improvements in line with those achieved for other mobile sources. Keywords: Sea transport, heavy fuel oil, gas oil, SO2, NOX, NMVOC, CH4, CO, CO2, N2O and particulates Layout: Ann-Katrine Holme Christoffersen ISBN: 978-87-7073-022-8 ISSN (electronic): 1600-0048 Number of pages: 109 Internet version: The report is available in electronic format (pdf) at NERI's website http://www.dmu.dk/Pub/FR650.pdf &RQWHQWV 3UHIDFH 6XPPDU\ Fuel consumption and emission legislation 8 Activity data 8 Fuel consumption and emission factors 9 Calculation procedure 9 Fuel consumption and emission results 9 Conclusion 10 6DPPHQGUDJ Lovgivning for brændstoffer og emissioner 12 Aktivitetsdata 12 Faktorer for energiforbrug og emissioner 13 Beregningsmetode 13 Resultater for energiforbrug og emissioner 13 Konklusion 14 0HWKRGRORJ\ 1.1 Activity data 16 1.2 Specific fuel consumption and emission factors 16 1.3 Calculation procedure 17 $FWLYLW\GDWD 2.1 Regional ferries 18 2.2 Local ferries, other national sea transport, fisheries and international sea transport 19 )XHODQGHPLVVLRQOHJLVODWLRQ 3.1 IMO emission limits for NOx 22 3.2 Sulphur content in marine fuels 23 )XHOFRQVXPSWLRQDQGHPLVVLRQIDFWRUV 4.1 Specific fuel consumption 24 4.2 NOx 25 4.3 SO2 26 4.4 PM 27 4.5 CO and VOC 28 4.6 CO2 29 4.7 N2O 29 &DOFXODWLRQSURFHGXUH )XHOFRQVXPSWLRQDQGHPLVVLRQV 6.1 Sector results for Danish navigation 32 6.2 Discrepancy between fuel sales and calculated fuel consumption for national sea transport 40 6.3 Differences between the new and the previous inventory for Danish navigation 41 6.4 Input parameters from the new Danish inventory compared with other studies and the previous Danish inventory 43 6.5 Fuel consumption and emission forecast 2006-2030 45 6.6 Uncertainties 48 6XPPDU\DQGGLVFXVVLRQ 5HIHUHQFHV $QQH[ $QQH[ $QQH[ 1DWLRQDO(QYLURQPHQWDO5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH 1(5,WHFKQLFDOUHSRUWV 3UHIDFH Emissions from ship engines are harmful to the environment both on a regional and global scale. Apart from the emission of the greenhouse gas CO2, ship engines contribute significantly to anthropogenic emissions of NOx, SOx and PM. In atmospheric chemistry it is a well known fact that NOx and VOC are precursors of ground level ozone, and that NOx and SOx emissions contribute to the formation of secondary particles in the atmosphere. Well-known health effects associated with PM, ozone and NOx comprise respiratory diseases and premature death from heart and pulmonary diseases. Moreover, an important environmental effect of the NOx and SOx emission from ship engines is contribution to acidification of the environment. In addition, NOx contributes to eutrophication of the terrestrial and aquatic environment, and ground level ozone is responsi- ble for damage to vegetation. Navigation is moreover an important source of emissions in terms of na- tional emission totals. For national navigation (national sea transport, fisheries and recreational craft) in Denmark, the largest emission shares are noted for SO2 and NOx. The emission shares are 91% and 17%, re- spectively, in relation to the total for mobile sources in the Danish 2005 inventory. For international sea transport the emission contributions are large even compared with the overall Danish totals. If the contributions from international sea transport were included in the Danish national to- tals, in 2005 the fuel consumption (and CO2) percentage addition would be 5%, and the corresponding NOx and SO2 percentage addition would amount to 34% and 167%, respectively. In the context of national emissions reporting for the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Changes (UNFCCC) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Convention of Long Range Transboundary Air Pollutants (UNECE LRTAP), national sea transport includes ships sailing between two national ports, regardless of flag. Fisheries include national fishing vessels, and international sea transport includes ships regardless of flag sailing from a national port with a for- eign destination (IPCC, 1997; EMEP/CORINAIR, 2006). International sea transport is excluded from the national emission totals reported to the conventions. According to the guidelines for the UNFCCC and UNECE conventions, it is good practice to use fuel sales data to support the emission calcula- tions when fleet activity based fuel consumption estimates are missing (IPCC, 1997; EMEP/CORINAIR, 2006). In practice, all countries use the official fuel sales reported for national and international sea transport in their national inventories. However, prior to input data usage, modifications of the fuel sales figures are made individually by many countries as part of their inventory method. The adjustments involve different fuel consumption sectors in the country fuel sales statistics, in order to maintain the grand national energy bal- ance, and the adjustments are made in situations when fuel sales figures 5 seem unrealistic compared with actual fleet activity, either in navigation subcategories or for navigation as a whole. Outside the official national system for inventorying and annual emis- sion reporting, several specific Danish studies have been made to quan- tify the fuel consumption and emissions from ships. In 2001, inventories for 1995/1996 and 1999/2000 were made by Wis- mann (2001), estimating the fuel consumption and emissions for all sea transport in Danish waters. The project basis was outside the strict ship movement and fuel sales definitions in the conventions, and therefore the results were not directly usable as input for the official Danish inven- tory work. Other Danish projects were the assessment of the fuel con- sumption and emissions for ships in Danish ports (hotelling, manoeu- vring, landing/loading) by Oxbøl et al. (2003), and the examination of air quality effects from cruise ship activities in the Port of Copenhagen by Olesen et al. (2005). Until recently, the Danish inventory for navigation prepared by the Na- tional Environmental Research Institute of Denmark (NERI) used the fuel sales figures for national sea transport and international sea trans- port reported by the Danish Energy Authority (DEA), directly. On the basis of these data, a simple fuel based inventory was set up, enabling the production of national emission reports as required by the UNFCCC and UNECE conventions. However, in a new project funded by the Danish Environmental Protec- tion Agency (DEPA) in 2006, NERI has established an improved meth- odology for navigation in Denmark, covering national sea transport, fisheries and international sea transport. For national sea transport, the new inventory distinguishes between regional ferries1, local ferries (small ferries) and other national sea transport, and the fuel consumption is estimated on the basis of fleet activity data and ferry-specific technical information. For fisheries and international sea transport, the new inven- tory remains fuel based. This report explains the new Danish inventory for navigation in terms of fuel consumption and the emissions
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