En Fast Kattegatforbindelse

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En Fast Kattegatforbindelse En fast Kattegatforbindelse Strategisk analyse Rapport 545 - 2015 STRATEGISKE ANALYSER En fast Kattegatforbindelse Strategisk analyse Rapport 545 - 2015 Dato: December 2015 Oplag: 200 Tryk: Vejdirektoratet ISBN (NET): 978-87-93184-82-4 ISBN: 978-87-93184-83-1 Grundkort: © Copyright Kort- og Matrikelstyrelsen Copyright: Vejdirektoratet, 2015 Gengivelse af denne rapport, er helt eller delvist, tilladt med kildeangivelse Indhold Forord 4 1 Sammenfatning 6 (QQ\WUD¿NNRUULGRUIRUELQGHUVWRJ9HVWGDQPDUN 7UD¿NNHQSnGHQQ\HODQGVGHOVIRUELQGHOVH $QO JVRYHUVODJ )LQDQVLHULQJRJEUXJHUEHWDOLQJ 2 Øst- Vest-korridoren i Danmark 10 7UD¿NNHQPHOOHPVWRJ9HVWGDQPDUN 6DPIXQGVP VVLJHHIIHNWHUDIHQIDVW.DWWHJDWIRUELQGHOVH 3 En fast Kattegatforbindelse 16 /LQMHI¡ULQJ %HWMHQLQJSnMHUQEDQHQRYHU.DWWHJDW YULJHIRUXGVDWWHMHUQEDQHDQO J 7UD¿NDOHHIIHNWHU 'HQVWUDWHJLVNHDQDO\VH *UXQGODJRJIRUXGV WQLQJHU 6FHQDULHU 5HMVHWLGHU 7DNVWHU 7UD¿NRPIDQJRJWUD¿NXGYLNOLQJ 5 Alternativer 30 %DQHDOWHUQDWLYHU 7DNVWDOWHUQDWLYHUIRUELOWUD¿NNHQ 6 Anlægsoverslag og driftsomkostninger 34 $QO JVRYHUVODJ 'ULIWVRJYHGOLJHKROGHOVHVRPNRVWQLQJHU 7 Finansiering 38 2YHURUGQHGHIRUXGV WQLQJHU ,QGW JWHU +RYHGUHVXOWDWIRUEUXJHU¿QDQVLHULQJVDQDO\VHQ %HW\GQLQJIRU6WRUHE OW 7DNVWVFHQDULHUIRUYHMWUD¿NNHQ )¡OVRPKHGVVFHQDULHU Baggrundsnotater 44 Forord Forord I januar 2009 indgik Venstre, Socialdemokraterne, Dansk Potentialet ved en fast Kattegatforbindelse har tidligere Folkeparti, Liberal Alliance, Radikale Venstre, Socialistisk Y UHWXQGHUV¡JW%ODJHQQHPI¡UWHNRQVXOHQW¿UPDHW Folkeparti og Konservative aftalen om ”En grøn transport- NIRAS i 2008 for Transportministeriet en screeningsun- politik”. dersøgelse af forskellige muligheder for linjeføringen af en Kattegatforbindelse. Parterne blev enige om at gennemføre en række strate- giske analyser, der skulle bidrage til at afdække investe- Andre analyser, blandt andet understøttet af Kattegat- ringsbehov og udbygningsmuligheder for vej- og banein- komiteen, omfatter andre aspekter af perspektiverne i frastrukturen på den anden side af 2020. en fast forbindelse over Kattegat. Det er eksempelvis i IRUKROGWLOY NVWRJXGYLNOLQJPLOM¡HIIHNWHUDÀDVWQLQJDI Analyserne skulle blandt andet omfatte det langsigtede HNVLVWHUHQGHLQIUDVWUXNWXURJ¿QDQVLHULQJVPXOLJKHGHU NDSDFLWHWVEHKRYIRUWUD¿NNHQPHOOHPVWRJ9HVWGDQ- mark, herunder om en fast Kattegatforbindelse vil være I de tidligere analyser har der ikke været gennemført en god løsning som en direkte forbindelse mellem Jylland HJHQWOLJHWUD¿NPRGHOEHUHJQLQJHUGDGHUSnGDY UHQGH og Sjælland. WLGVSXQNWLNNHIDQGWHVHQWUD¿NPRGHOGHUG NNHUKHOH'DQ- mark. Bl.a. derfor besluttede forligskredsen bag ”En grøn *HQQHPGHVHQHVWHnUWLHUKDUY NVWHQLWUD¿NNHQPHOOHP WUDQVSRUWSROLWLN´DWGHUVNXOOHXGYLNOHVHQ/DQGVWUD¿NPRGHO VWRJ9HVWGDQPDUNY UHWPDUNDQW'HUIRUYHQWHV\GHUOL- JHUHVWLJQLQJHUIRUEnGHMHUQEDQHRJYHMWUD¿NNHQLGHNRP- På denne baggrund er der nu udarbejdet en strategisk mende årtier, og derved et øget pres på infrastrukturen. analyse af potentialerne ved en fast forbindelse over Kat- tegat. Den strategiske analyse er gennemført ved hjælp af Der er indenfor de senere år truffet en række vigtige afta- EHUHJQLQJHUPHG/DQGVWUD¿NPRGHOOHQPHGGHWIRUPnODW ler om udbygninger og kapacitetsforbedringer af fremti- EHO\VHGHWWUD¿NDOHJUXQGODJKHUXQGHUVDPVSLOOHWPHG dens infrastruktur. Beslutninger som vil styrke mobiliteten 6WRUHE OWVIRUELQGHOVHQEUXJHU¿QDQVLHULQJVSRWHQWLDOHWRJ LGHQQXY UHQGH¡VWYHVWJnHQGHWUD¿NNRUULGRU projektøkonomien. Analysen omfatter ikke samfundsøko- nomiske beregninger. Det drejer sig blandt andet om beslutning af signal- programmet, anlæg af ny bane mellem København og Den strategiske analyse er udarbejdet af Vejdirektoratet Ringsted, opgradering mellem Ringsted og Odense samt RJ7UD¿NRJ%\JJHVW\UHOVHQ5HVXOWDWHUQHLDQDO\VHQ udbygninger eller kapacitetsforbedringer på en række tra- præsenteres i denne rapport. ¿NHUHGHPRWRUYHMVVWU NQLQJHUYHG9HMOH)MRUGSn9HVWI\Q på Køge Bugt Motorvejen og Kalundborgmotorvejen. Der skal i denne forbindelse rettes en tak til embeds- mandsarbejdsgruppen for input og bemærkninger til Udover de allerede besluttede projekter på både jern- DQDO\VHDUEHMGHWKHUXQGHUVSHFLHOWLIRUKROGWLOWUD¿NRJ bane- og vejnettet, er der som mulige langsigtede strate- følsomhedsberegningerne. gier for landsdelsforbindelserne i de strategiske analyser undersøgt en række tiltag. Som baggrund for rapporten ligger en række baggrunds- notater, som går mere i dybden med forskellige aspekter Det er tiltag som både kan gennemføres i den nuværende DIKHQKROGVYLVIRUXGV WQLQJHUQHIRUWUD¿NPRGHOEHUHJQLQ- korridor mellem Sjælland-Fyn og Jylland, en ny forbindelse JHUQHRJIRUXGV WQLQJHUQHIRUGH¿QDQVLHOOHEHUHJQLQJHU fra Bogense til Juelsminde, samt muligheden for at etab- ift. brugerbetaling. En oplistning af baggrundsnotaterne lere en helt ny korridor som en fast Kattegatforbindelse. kan ses bagerst i rapporten. 4 Kapitel overskrift her 5 Sammenfatning 1 Sammenfatning En fast forbindelse over Kattegat medfører, at store dele HQIDVW.DWWHJDWIRUELQGHOVH)RUUHMVHUPHOOHP.¡EHQKDYQ af det vestlige, nordlige og østlige Danmark i højere grad RJ0LGWM\OODQGVSDUHUPDQFDHQKDOYWLPH IRUELQGHVYLDHQQ\WUD¿NDONRUULGRU(QNRUULGRUVRPYLO muliggøre kortere rejsetider og større mobilitet mellem 2JVnWUD¿NDQWHULGHQQXY UHQGHKRYHGNRUULGRURYHU6WR- ODQGVGHOHQH UHE OWYLORSOHYHIRUEHGULQJHUDIUHMVHWLGHUQHIRUYHMWUD¿N- ken på grund af reduceret trængsel, fordi nogle rejsende Det vil især bringe Danmarks to største byområder, LVWHGHWYLOEHQ\WWHHQIDVW.DWWHJDWIRUELQGHOVH'HWWH Hovedstaden og Aarhusområdet tættere på hinanden i gælder også de resterende landsdele, som vil kunne pQVWRUVDPOHWE\UHJLRQ+HUYLOGHWY UHPXOLJWDWSHQGOH RSOHYHHQHIIHNWSnJUXQGDIRYHUÀ\WWHWWUD¿NRPHQGGHW KXUWLJHUHWLOQ\HRPUnGHURJQnÀHUHDUEHMGVSODGVHUHQG HULHWPLQGUHRPIDQJ LHQVLWXDWLRQXGHQHQIDVW.DWWHJDWIRUELQGHOVH'HWYLO NRPPHEnGHEHIRONQLQJRJHUKYHUYVOLYWLOJRGH 3nJUXQGDIXVLNNHUKHGHQRP¿QDQVLHULQJHQDI7RJIRQGHQ '.VRPL656)UHJHULQJHQVDIWDOHPHG(/RJ')YDU 1.1 En ny trafikkorridor forbinder W QNWEODDWVNXOOHUHDOLVHUH7LPHPRGHOOHQKDUGHQQX- Øst- og Vestdanmark værende regering besluttet at gennemføre et serviceefter- Der er i den strategiske analyse regnet på en fast forbin- V\QDI¿QDQVLHULQJHQDI7RJIRQGHQ'.RJRPQ¡GYHQGLJW delse over Kattegat mellem Røsnæs nord for Kalundborg via UHYLGHUHXGUXOQLQJVWDNWHQIRU7RJIRQGHQVSURMHNWHU 6DPV¡WLO+RYV\GIRU$DUKXV )RUWRJWUD¿NNHQYLOGHUVnIUHPW7LPHPRGHOOHQHUJHQ- Den faste forbindelse er forudsat at bestå af to kombinerede nemført - allerede være opnået store rejsetidsbesparelser vej- og baneforbindelser, med en længde på henholdsvis PHOOHPODQGVGHOHQHL7LGVEHVSDUHOVHQSnWRJUHMVHU FDRJNP7LOVDPPHQOLJQLQJKDU6WRUHE OWVIRUELQ- med en fast Kattegatforbindelse vil derfor ligge på mellem delsens to broanlæg en længde på henholdsvis 6,6 og 6,8 en halv og en hel time for områder mellem Hovedstaden NP,KRYHGVFHQDULHWIRUXGV WWHVDWGHUDQO JJHVHQQ\ RJGHWPLGWQRUGRJ¡VWOLJH-\OODQG K¡MKDVWLJKHGVMHUQEDQHVDPWHQPRWRUYHMLNRUULGRUHQ)RU- ELQGHOVHQHUEHUHJQLQJVWHNQLVNVDWWLODWnEQHL )RUWRJUHMVHQGHPHOOHP.¡EHQKDYQVRPUnGHWRJ7UH- NDQWRPUnGHW6¡QGHUM\OODQGRJ)\QRSQnVLNNH\GHUOLJHUH 1.2 Trafikken på den nye landsdelsforbindelse UHMVHWLGVEHVSDUHOVHUPHGHQ.DWWHJDWIRUELQGHOVH 5HVXOWDWHUIUDGHWUD¿NDOHEHUHJQLQJHUYLVHUDWFD N¡UHW¡MHURJWRJSDVVDJHUHUYLOEHQ\WWHVLJDIHQ 1.3 Anlægsoverslag IDVW.DWWHJDWIRUELQGHOVHSUKYHUGDJVG¡JQL'HWWH Anlæg af en fast forbindelse over Kattegat er et meget VYDUHUWLOKHQKROGVYLVPLRN¡UHW¡MHURJPLRWRJSDV- omfattende projekt, der vil kræve betydelige økonomiske VDJHUHURPnUHW UHVVRXUFHUDWUHDOLVHUH 'HWYLOVDPWLGLJEHW\GHDWGHUIRUVYLQGHUWUD¿NIUD6WR- De samlede anlægsomkostninger for forbindelsen inklusiv UHE OWVIRUELQGHOVHQSFWDIWRJWUD¿NNHQSnHQQ\ WLOK¡UHQGHODQGDQO JEHO¡EHUVLJWLOLDOWFDPLDNU Kattegatforbindelse vil komme fra Storebæltsforbindelsen LQNONRUUHNWLRQVWLOO J VYDUHQGHWLOWRJSDVVDJHUHUSUKYHUGDJVG¡JQL 7LOVYDUHQGHYLOSFWDIYHMWUD¿NNHQSnHQ.DWWH- Anlægsoverslag inkl. korrektionstillæg* Mia. kr. JDWIRUELQGHOVHY UHRYHUÀ\WWHWWUD¿NIUD6WRUHE OWVIRUELQ- GHOVHQVYDUHQGHWLON¡UHW¡MHU Kyst-til-kyst forbindelsen Vej, landanlæg 6,7 Der vil med en ny Kattegatforbindelse ske store rejsetids- Jernbane, landanlæg IRUEHGULQJHUPHOOHPLV U.¡EHQKDYQRJ$DUKXV0HQ I alt 117,9 RJVnVWRUHGHOHDI0LGWRJ1RUGM\OODQGVDPW6M OODQGYLO RSOHYHWLGVEHVSDUHOVHU * Der er i anlægsoverslaget generelt anvendt et korrektionstillæg på 50 pct. For Rute 23 (Kalundborgmotorvejen) dog 30 pct. ,YLOPDQIRUHNVHPSHOSnHQELOUHMVHPHOOHP.¡EHQ- havn og det nordlige Jylland og dele af Østjylland kunne Tabel 1.1 Samlet anlægsoverslag for en fast Kattegatforbindelse. spare over en time sammenlignet med en situation uden (2015-priser) 6 Sammenfatning Motorveje Øvrige veje Göteborg Bane Skagen Færgerute Hirtshals Frederikshavn Varberg AALBORG Thisted Nykøbing M Lemvig Skive Randers Viborg Grenaa KATTEGAT AARHUS Herning Silkeborg Ringkøbing Helsingør Sjællands Odde Hillerød Hov Horsens Holbæk KØBENHAVN Vejle Kalundborg Roskilde Fredericia Køge STOREBÆLT Esbjerg Kolding ODENSE Ringsted Nyborg Slagelse Ribe Assens Næstved Haderslev Faaborg Svendborg Vordingborg Aabenraa Sønderborg Nakskov Nykøbing F Maribo Rønne Figur 1.1 Danmarks overordnede infrastruktur i 2030, (uden en fast Kattegatforbindelse). 7 Sammenfatning Kombineret vej- og baneforbindelse Ny motorvej AARHUS Nybygget bane Hasselager Helsingør Skanderborg Sjællands Odde Odder Nordby Hillerød Hovedgård Hou SAMSØ Horsens Sælvig Kolby Kås R Ø S N Æ S Holbæk KØBENHAVN Kalundborg Regstrup Roskilde Værslev Svebølle Lejre Figur 1.2 Overordnet skitsering af linjeføringen for en fast Kattegatforbindelse i de gennemførte beregninger. Det er en mulighed at reducere
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