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Krause Fund Research Fall 2019 November 15Th, 2019 Krause Fund Research Fall 2019 November 15th, 2019 Alphabet Inc. Recommendation: BUY (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Current Price $1,333.54 Communication - Media Target Price $1,520 - $1,600 Analysts DCF & EP Model: $1,608 Chase Blatz Colin Agey DDM Model: $1,204 [email protected] [email protected] Relative Value Model: $1,246 Investment Thesis Stock Performance Highlights We recommend a BUY rating for Alphabet Inc. because of the company’s position as 52wk Range: $977.66 - $1,322.65 being the global force in online advertising, recognizing and acting on the need to diversify their revenue make up, and untapped growth opportunities within their Beta Value: 1.01 business segments. Share Highlights Drivers of Thesis Market leader: Alphabet currently holds the highest market share of online Market Cap (B) 902.819 advertising industry at 37.1%17 and will look to continue this dominance by their Shares Outstanding (M) 229.63 position as the market leader in online Search and through the growth of Forward P/E $24.22 YouTube. EPS (2020E) $42.77 Cloud growth: Google looks to expand and capitalize on the growth of its Cloud storage and services business. By 2022, the cloud market is projected to expand over $300 billion. Google currently sits at 12% market share13 but has Company Performance Highlights shown they want to be a leader in this market. ROA 8.55% Diversifying revenue stream: Alphabet has a continued focus on expanding their Cloud business, furthering growth in streaming and ad revenue through ROE 17.88% YouTube, and advancing the development of products and services within their Profit Margin 21.04% Other Bets. Net Income (B) 30.7 Risks to Thesis Company Description Government Regulation: Alphabet has faced antitrust probes over the past 10 years, and they are currently being investigated for antitrust practices by almost Alphabet Inc. is the largest provider of every state’s Attorney General. There will almost certainly be some sort of regulation in online advertising and data collection, so Alphabet’s ability to online advertising services in the world. The build a diverse revenue stream is crucial. company operates from Google and its Other Bets. The Google segment includes the Google search engine, Ads, Android, 12 Month Performance Compared to S&P 500 Chrome, Google Cloud, Google Maps, Google Play, Hardware, and YouTube. The Other Bets segment focuses on investing in small companies that look to shake up different industries. Alphabet currently receives 99.6% of their revenue from its Google segment, with 85% of their Google revenues coming from advertising12. 1 Source: Yahoo Finance36 economy to invest in projects with the end goal of Executive Summary ultimately raising real GDP. Looking at the next 6 months, we see real GDP growth at 2.25% as monetary policy looks to mitigate some of the external threats to the U.S. economy (ongoing Our team recommends a BUY rating for trade war with China and global weakness in Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) for the manufacturing). Over the next 3 years we see the University of Iowa Krause Fund Portfolio. U.S. real GDP growth rate to drop to 1.75%. Alphabet currently holds and will maintain a large market share in online advertising, they are growing their business segments of YouTube and Google Cloud, and are continuing the development and rollout of services and products in their Other Bets. We believe Alphabet still has higher than market growth potential through its ability to adapt to potential government regulation around online advertising and data collection. Due to Alphabet’s large market share of the online advertising market and their initiatives to grow other segments of their (Figure 1: Trading Economics)1 business, we are also positive that Alphabet has a better opportunity to grow during a period where Advancements in technology have historically U.S. Real GDP slows down, U.S. unemployment been large drivers of GDP growth, as new ticks up, and overall consumer confidence slides. innovations in how the world communicates and Our forecast models that are included in the how businesses operate lead to expansion. The report support and help explain our BUY rating Communications sector of the S&P 500 was for Alphabet. Our current target price is $1,520- reorganized in 2018, which brought in some of $1,600. the largest companies in the world like Alphabet Inc., Facebook Inc., Netflix Inc., and The Walt Disney Company. These new additions will be Broad Economic Outlook some of the main drivers of the sector over the next decade. Many of the businesses in the Communications sector have a strong reliance on consumer demand, and if that consumer demand U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreases in relation to a decrease in GDP growth, so will the overall performance of the Real GDP growth is an important metric to sector. follow, as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth signals that there is a recession. In the event of a recession, Alphabet will see The current real GDP growth rate is 1.90%1. The smaller growth opportunities. Alphabet relies on Federal Reserve, led by the Federal Open the health of other companies in regard to their Markets Committee (FMOC), is projected to advertising and cloud computing business, and if continue with monetary policy changes to help there is less demand stemming from a lack of grow the economy. The Federal Reserve has cut overall business opportunities, Alphabet will feel the federal funds rate by a quarter point in three it in their revenue growth. In our valuation model consecutive meetings, slashing the fed funds rate for Alphabet, we incorporate an economic from 2.50% in June 2019 to 1.75% by the end of slowdown, but we still saw positive growth October 20191. This change in the federal funds throughout our timeframe. Alphabet has shown to rate allows banks to lend money at a lower rate, be a leader within the industry and sector, as which theoretically puts more money into the Alphabet’s stock price has grown 127.42% since 2 2015. In comparison, the S&P 500 has grown Our forecasted decline in confidence from 52.36% since 201536. consumers will have a slight negative effect on Alphabet’s bottom line. As consumers are less U.S. Consumer Confidence Index willing to spend money on goods and services, businesses who use Google’s Ad services will The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a decrease their advertising spending and demand survey of consumer attitudes and buying lower prices to use those ad services. Since intentions that reflect the prevailing business Google has the largest market share in the online conditions and likely conditions for the future digital advertising space, they will only see a months ahead. The most recent survey shows the moderate slowdown in overall revenue growth Consumer Confidence Index declined slightly to compared to other online advertising businesses. 125.9 in October, after declining in August and September2. In the latest Consumer Confidence U.S. Unemployment Rate Survey (10/29/19), produced by The Conference Board, consumers were less optimistic about The U.S. unemployment rate is a key indicator of business conditions in the next six months. Much the labor market. As more workers become of the economic strength that we have seen over unemployed, their families lose wages. This the past few years has relied heavily on consumer results in a slowdown of individuals contribution spending, and the current trade war with China to the economy with the goods and services that has yet to show any resolve. Over the upcoming could be produced or consumed. The current U.S. six months, we see consumer confidence to unemployment rate sits at 3.6% as of October continue to slowly decline to 120, barring major 2019, but this is a statistic that is regularly changes in the political climate. In the next three updated as it is a surveyed indicator3. The U.S. years we are projecting consumer confidence to unemployment rate has been relatively low over trend downward to 105.5 as we see key global the past few years, getting down to the lowest indicators from other countries point towards a point it has been in the past 20 years, which can slowdown. be partially attributed to President Trump’s tax cuts on businesses and income taxes. Over the next six months we are projecting that U.S. unemployment will stay relatively unchanged, with the rate hovering around 3.9%. In the next three years, we believe the U.S. unemployment rate will increase to 4.5%. (Figure 2: CEIC Data)2 This lower CCI over time will affect the Communications sector directly since a lot of the firms produce goods that can easily be substituted for cheaper options in a recession. This number is directly related to real GDP growth, and as the economy begins to slow down, consumers are less confident in the economy. Consumers are (Figure 3: BLS)3 also less likely to spend their money on unnecessary goods and services, like additional Alphabet is currently one of the most streaming and entertainment services. recognizable firms in the country which will allow it to fill vacant positions more easily. The 3 historically low unemployment rates will not ad seller in the world, with a 31.1% share of affect Alphabet as much as other firms because worldwide ad revenue4. With the uncertainty they offer extremely competitive wages and other around industry regulation moving forward, we benefits. Alphabet has a median wage of see a potential shakeup to Google’s digital ad $200,000, which is the fourth highest out of all revenue business, which will have larger S&P 500 companies that disclose wages6.
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