Public Opinion: It's Complicated
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#1 (119) January 2018 Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman on The prospects of Naftogaz and Socio-economic sentiments economic expectations and plans in 2018 liberalization of Ukraine’s energy market in the liberated part of the Donbas PUBLIC OPINION: IT'S COMPLICATED WWW.UKRAINIANWEEK.COM Featuring selected content from The Economist FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION CONTENTS | 3 BRIEFING 32 Creating a common agenda: 4 A time of miracles: War veterans, volunteers On the perception of change in and activists share Ukraine their expectations of 2018 POLITICS SOCIETY 7 Volodymyr Hroisman: 34 Studio sleight of hand: “We could see 5% growth by How Ukraine’s talk shows work QIV’2018” 36 A new hegemon: Ukraine’s Prime-Minister on Major trends in small economic strategy, innovations, and mid-sized entrepreneurship state monopolies, and privatizations in the Donbas planned for 2018 NEIGHBOURS 10 In search of the sense: 38 Ben O’Loughlin: The key trends of 2017 in Ukraine’s “People in Ukraine often politics have a false view of what 12 No right to show weakness: life in the EU is like” How Ukraine’s security, defence Professor of the London University on and the capability to counter hybrid the perception of the EU in Ukraine aggression changed in 2017 and Russian propaganda ECONOMICS 40 Confused new world: 14 National champions wanted: What makes the post-Brexit Which companies have the potential government and opposition to get a global reach and become the in the UK weak drivers of an economic breakthrough 42 Michito Tsuruoka: in Ukraine “Vis-à-vis North Korea, it is undeniable 16 Baby steps to success: that no country has a workable option to stop its missile and nuclear How Ukraine’s joint ventures with EU development short of war” countries develop in the energy sector Keio University Professor on security 18 The battle for Naftogaz: in East Asia and a new approach to What groups compete for control Japan’s defense capabilities over one of the most profitable state 44 The youth of today: companies How the new generation feels FOCUS and what it prefers 23 Frustrated and optimistic: CULTURE & ARTS How Ukrainians assess their present 47 Vitaly Mansky: and future "Russia is ill. Fruits and vitamins 26 A wolf in sheep’s clothing: aren’t enough to cure it anymore" What kind of a new leader Ukrainian Russian film director on art and voters prefer totalitarianism 28 Curiouser and curiouser: 50 Silent films, jazz and ballet: Socio-political trends in the Donbas The Ukrainian Week offers 30 The pursuit of happiness: a selection of events Why migration from Ukraine rises to attend in January and won’t stop any time soon and February E-mail [email protected] www.ukrainianweek.com Tel. (044) 351-13-00 The Ukrainian Week #1 (119) January 2018 Office address Kyiv, Ukraine, 36A, vul. Bohdana Khmelnytskoho, apt. 3 Founder ECEM Media GmbH. Publisher ECEM Media GmbH Print run 15 000. Free distribution Address Austria, Am Gestade,1, 1010 Vienna Our partner State registration certificate КВ № 19823-9623ПР 19.03.2013 Chief Editor Dmytro Krapyvenko Editors Anna Korbut, Lidia Wolanskyj A time of miracles Dmytro Krapyvenko BRIEFING Dmytro Krapyvenko There are those who say that nothing has changed in Ukraine, and if anything has changed, it hasn’t been for the better. They are mistaken. It’s not necessary to dig deeply into the country’s historical layers to find markers of change. Just 4-5 years ago, what did the mainstream New Year’s Eve look like? Second-rate Russian pop about Father Frost and his sidekick Snowflake, cross-dressing Verka Ser- diuchka, and their cheesy staging on TV, and, of course, the KOZLIUK STANISLAV PHOTO: perennial movie about the irony of fate that depicted—with- out any irony—the endless repetitiousness of soviet life. THE UKRAINIAN WEEK | #1 (119) January 2018 6 BRIEFING | Oh, I almost forgot the ubiquitous olivier salad, made ent” for far too long. Chiding those in power and pointing out according to the soviet recipe. This fakery of the previous mistakes became fashionable, and any achievements had to be era many mistakenly thought was a real tradition. The New checked for tricks and treason. As a perfect example, the for- Year’s tree on the Maidan, Lenin on Besarabska Ploshcha also eign press was abuzz about the flight of the AN-225 Mriya, the seemed to be in Kyiv since forever. world’s biggest plane, to Australia, while domestic media were The young and the progressive sneered at this “holiday very subdued. set,” but the overall mood across the country suggested that The Ukrainian economic miracle. I’ve seen plenty of “fan- New Year’s in Ukraine was something resembling a large- tastic” books on this topic – I refer to political campaign plat- scale Groundhog Day. Habit and inertia. Could there ever be forms – in which this term appears from time to time. But it something else? Before, no one gave much thought to this. And is the kind of catchphrase that becomes legitimized when the those in power kept chanting that the main thing was stability economic miracle is talked about foreigners, not by the resi- and well-being, which they, needless to say, were going to en- dents or leadership of that country: this is never very persua- sure us. Then, a miracle happened. Surely that is not a bad way sive, reminding everyone of the Soviet Union with its ‘frugal to describe the Euromaidan? Those events were an epic cycle economy’ constantly blowing its horn about its miracles and of historic upheaval that could well be also tagged “in spite of.” reflecting the kind of ideology we can see in a country like the After all, there was no logical explanation for why it happened. North Korean Democratic Republic today. It’s best when offi- Some like to interpret as miracles things like price controls, cials in other countries talk about it or, better yet, investors are fruit baskets and paternalistic bonuses. Anyone who is count- happy to put their money into promising new ventures. ing on them is sure to lose. It’s a good bet that people who like Right now, no one is talking like this about Ukraine, mean- to buy lottery tickets on a regular basis and participate in pyra- ing that Ukrainians haven’t produced their miracle yet and mid sales most likely gravitate to populist miracle-workers they need to work more on this. Nor does that mean working than to parties with a constructive platform—especially if their “as usual,” but seriously looking for future growth points with rhetoric includes exhortations to work rather than to wait for everything they have, to open new market niches, and to grow freebies from on high. Together, these voters and their idols national champions that will be able to compete effectively on are building what is, in fact, a country of fools, no matter how world markets and become a symbol of the country’s success. pretty the name they wrap it in. Ukrainians have spent many years moaning about the When talking about miracles, there’s always a sense of decline in national culture. Ukrainian filmmakers often hid something infantile or at least not-quite understood. Consider their real minds and so the monument to Ukrainian film will contemporary technology. It may be banal, but it’s true: most probably have only two names: Dovzhenko and Paradjanov. But stop: 2017 has ended and box office receipts on Ukrainian movies are breaking all records in movie theaters. A miracle? EVERY UKRAINIAN CAN GET INVOLVED IN THE CHANGE PROCESS. Yes, a miracle. Ukraine’s still a ways from producing world- ROMANTICS CAN CALL THIS THE REINCARNATION OF THE COUNTRY; class blockbusters and its market for movies has a long way to PRAGMATICS CAN CALL IT REFORMS; CYNICS AND PESSIMISTS CAN CALL go and grow to the volumes of even a country like Poland, with IT WHAT THEY WANT—AS LONG AS THEY DON’T GET IN THE WAY its considerably smaller population. The point is that things are moving, despite all the skeptics and all those who tried to persuade Ukrainian filmmakers that the only solution was to work for Mosfilm. of the technological innovations that we’ve become used to or The war… those who have been there say that miracles hap- are getting used to now were being dismissed as science fiction pen all the time there. In the summer of 2014, one battalion not so many years ago. Mobile phones, high-speed transport commander said: “Everything that we see happening right now and computers were the subject of conversations among odd- is proof that there is a God.” At that point, there really were ball dreamers, then technologists, and only after did the “mira- very few reasonable arguments to explain how the Ukrainian cle” look to the ordinary user as an ordinary everyday product. army, which had been cut back to laughable levels, and the What looks like a fantasy today could be mass-produced to- hastily-formed volunteer battalions had managed to arrest a morrow. That’s been demonstrated to people in the 21st cen- many-times more powerful enemy and even recover a signifi- tury more than once. cant chunk of Ukrainian territory. The losses were heavy, fatal The point is that today’s miracle technologies have their mistakes occurred, but they did manage. When Poles managed own specific origins. We’re used to the fact that devices come to beat off the huge red armada that was already nearing War- to us from China, South Korea or the US.