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Russia and Asia–Pacific Security Proceedings of the Conference on Russia and Asia–Pacific Security Tokyo, 19–21 February 1999 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI is an independent international institute for research into problems of peace and conflict, especially those of arms control and disarmament. It was established in 1966 to commemorate Sweden’s 150 years of unbroken peace. The Institute is financed mainly by the Swedish Parliament. The staff and the Governing Board are international. The Institute also has an Advisory Committee as an international consultative body. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. Governing Board Professor Daniel Tarschys, Chairman (Sweden) Dr Oscar Arias Sánchez (Costa Rica) Dr Willem F. van Eekelen (Netherlands) Sir Marrack Goulding (United Kingdom) Dr Catherine Kelleher (United States) Dr Lothar Rühl (Germany) Professor Ronald G. Sutherland (Canada) Dr Abdullah Toukan (Jordan) The Director Director Dr Adam Daniel Rotfeld (Poland) © SIPRI Cover design by Marjukka Anthony ISBN 91 85114 54 5 Contents Preface v Introduction vi Acronyms viii 1. Russia and Asia: challenges and opportunities for national and 1 international security Dr Vladimir Baranovsky, IMEMO, Moscow, Russia 2. Asia–Pacific in US–Russian relations 9 Professor Joyce K. Kallgren, University of California at Berkeley, USA 3. New trends in Russian–Japanese relations at the start of the 21st 15 century Professor Nobuo Shimotomai, Hosei University, Japan 4. Quadruple relations in Asia–Pacific and Japan 19 Professor Yoshinobu Yamamoto, University of Tokyo, Japan 5. Russia and great-power security in Asia 27 Professor Andrew C. Kuchins, Stanford University, USA 6. Russian–US relations and Asia–Pacific security issues 37 Professor Mikhail G. Nosov, Institute of USA and Canada Studies, Moscow, Russia 7. Russia in the Asia–Pacific area 47 Dr Vyacheslav B. Amirov, IMEMO, Moscow, Russia 8. Russo-Japanese relations and the security of North-East Asia in the 56 21st century Professor Tsuyoshi Hasegawa, University of California at Santa Barbara, USA 9. Russia’s policy towards Japan 66 Professor Motohide Saito, Kyorin University, Japan 10. The future of US–Japanese defence cooperation and its implications 76 for regional security Satoshi Morimoto, Nomura Research Institute, Japan 11. The evolving security environment in Asia: its impact on Russia 83 Dr Jonathan D. Pollack, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, USA 12. Russian policy and interests on the Korean Peninsula 95 Dr Alexander N. Fedorovsky, IMEMO, Moscow, Russia 13. Russia and a new balance of power in East Asia: implications for 100 stability on the Korean Peninsula Dr Sang-Woo Rhee, Sogang University, Seoul, South Korea iv RUSSIA AND ASIA 14. Economic relations between Russia and the Asia–Pacific countries 106 Professor Tsuneaki Sato, Yokohama City University, Japan 15. Prospects for Russia’s ‘energy diplomacy’ in North-East Asia 114 Dr Vladimir I. Ivanov, Economic Research Institute for North-East Asia, Japan 16. Russian–Chinese relations and arms exports 123 Dr Mitsuo Mii, National Institute for Defence Studies, Japan 17. Sino-Russian relations after the break-up of the Soviet Union 128 Professor Chen Qimao, Shanghai Institute of International Relations, China 18. Russia and China: what is in the pipeline? 137 Dr Yuri V. Tsyganov, University of Melbourne, Australia 19. Russia and ASEAN: emerging partnership 147 Dr Victor Sumsky, IMEMO, Moscow, Russia 20. The Asia–Pacific region in Russia’s foreign policy 157 Professor Gennady Chufrin, SIPRI, Stockholm, Sweden About the contributors 165 Preface This volume is based on the papers presented at an international conference, ‘Russia and Asia– Pacific Security’, which was convened at the International House of Japan in Tokyo, Japan on 19–21 February 1999. The organization of the conference was initiated by SIPRI as part of its ongoing study of Russia’s emerging security agenda. It was co-hosted by the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) and by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper as part of the activities commemorating the Asahi Shimbun’s 120-year anniversary. The conference brought together a number of outstanding scholars and current and former government representatives from China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, Sweden and the USA. The papers printed here express a range of views that reflect differing and sometimes rival perspectives on the central security challenges and tasks confronting the Asia–Pacific region in the new century, as well as on the role of Russia in the evolving regional security environment. The intention is to contribute in this form to the discussion about security issues in the Asia– Pacific region, which is assuming an increasingly prominent place on the international security agenda. The conference was made possible by a generous grant from the Japan Foundation under its Support Program for Conferences and Symposia. It was also supported by a financial contri- bution from the Asahi Shimbun newspaper. We would like to thank in particular Mr Kiyofuku Chuma, Chairman of the Asahi Shimbun Editorial Board of Directors, for his active support of the proposal to convene a conference on Russia’s security role in the Asia–Pacific region. We also thank Mr Akio Nomura, Director of the Asahi Research Centre, for his cooperative engagement in the organizational and substantive work of the meeting. Special thanks go to Ambassador Nobuo Matsunaga, Vice-Chairman of the JIIA, for his support of the conference and his participation in its activities. We also gratefully acknowledge the efforts of Mr Toshiro Ozawa, Acting Director of the JIIA, and Mr Takeshi Kamiyama, Director of Research Co- ordination at the JIIA, for their assistance in organizing the conference and taking part in its work. Our thanks also go to Professor Gennady Chufrin, Project Leader, and Shannon Kile, Researcher, within the SIPRI Project on Russia’s Security Agenda, for taking the main res- ponsibility for the producing this volume. Eve Johansson, SIPRI editor, finalized the texts for publication. We hope that the cooperative spirit which motivates this work will serve to stimulate other joint endeavours on this important and timely topic. Adam Daniel Rotfeld Hisashi Owada Director, SIPRI President, JIIA September 1999 September 1999 Introduction As part of its ongoing study of Russia’s evolving post-Soviet foreign and security policies, SIPRI convened in Tokyo, Japan, an international conference on Russia and Asia–Pacific Secu- rity, 19–21 February 1999. It was hosted by the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) and the Asahi Shimbun newspaper. The goal of the conference was to examine the principal political, economic and military factors affecting Russia’s interactions with the countries of the Asia–Pacific region against the backdrop of rapid changes in the domestic Russian and international settings. Its agenda included a wide range of regional, subregional and bilateral security issues touching on different aspects of the foreign policy and security relationships between Russia and its neighbours. Special attention was given to analysing key trends arising in the evolving security environment in the Asia–Pacific region and to considering their implications for regional and global security. One of the primary aims in this regard was to identify current and potential conflict issues in the region and to examine possible approaches to their resolution. The Opening Session, held at the Asahi Shimbun building, began with introductory remarks from the President of Asahi Shimbun, Muneyuki Matsushita, the then President of the JIIA, Ambassador Nobuo Matsunaga (who is now Vice-Chairman of the JIIA), and the Director of SIPRI, Dr Adam Daniel Rotfeld, followed by a keynote address by the former United Nations Secretary-General, Yasushi Akashi. In addition to the conference participants, the session was attended by guests from local research institutes, government ministries, diplomatic missions and media organizations. The subsequent sessions of the conference, which took place at the International House of Japan, addressed two general themes: the changing strategic dimensions of the Asia–Pacific security environment; and regional security issues. Among the most important issues discussed in addressing the first theme were: (a) the dynamics of the US–Japanese–Chinese–Russian quadripartite security relations; and (b) the new trends in Russian–Japanese relations and prospects for their development and further improvement. Among the most important regional security issues discussed were: (a) the content of the Chinese–Russian ‘strategic partnership’ and its impact on the regional security equation; (b) the future of defence cooperation between the USA and Japan and its implications for regional security; (c) current and potential challenges to security on the Korean Peninsula; (d) Chinese foreign policy and the Taiwan issue; (e) the impact of Russian arms sales as a factor in regional security; and (f) the future of ASEAN and regional mechanisms for conflict prevention and conflict resolution. There was general agreement among the conference participants that the Asia–Pacific region is characterized by continuing tensions and unresolved problems not only of the cold war but in some instances of the end of World War II. They include: the territorial disputes between Russia and Japan, between China and Japan, and between the South China Sea littoral states; the enduring division of the Korean Peninsula; and
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