C~sxs XN THE TAX WAN S TI6ff T CRISIS IN THE TaXWAN S TRAXT EDITED BY lAMES R. LILLEY AND CHUCK DOWNS PUBLISHED IN COOPERATION WITH THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE N NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY PRESS FT. McNAtR, WASHINGTON, D.C. National Defense University Press Publications To increase general knowledge and inform discussion, the Institute for National Strategic Studies, through its publication arm the NDU Press, publishes McNair Papers; proceedings of University- and Institute-sponsored symposia; books relating to U.S. national security, especially to issues of joint, combined, or coalition warfare, peacekeeping operations, and national strategy; and a variety of briefer works designed to circulate contemporary comment and offer alternatives to current policy. The Press occasionally publishes out-of-print defense classics, historical works, and other especially timely or distinguished writing on national security. Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views of American Enterprise Institute, the Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, the National Defense University Foundation, the Department of Defense, or any other U.S. Government agency. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. Many NDU Press publications are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office. For ordering information, call (202) 512-1800 or write to the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Crisis in the Taiwan Strait/edited by,lames R. Lilley and Chuck Downs. p. cIn. "Published in cooperation with American Enterprise Institute." Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 1-57906-000-5 1. China--Armed Forces. 2. China--Military policy. 3. Taiwan Strait. 4. Taiwan--Defenses. I. Lilley,James R. II. Downs, Chuck. UA835.C75 1997 355',033051--dc21 97-37374 CIP First Printing, September 1997 The American Enterprise Institute Founded in 1943, AEI is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, research and educational organization based in Washington, D.C. The institute sponsors research, con- ducts seminars and conferences, and publishes books and periodicals. AEI's research is carried out under three major programs: Economic Policy Studies; Foreign Policy and Defense Studies; and Social and Political Studies. Copyright © 1997 by American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C. All rights reserved. Puhlished by permi.~sion. With the exception of the foreword, no part of this publication may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without permission in writing from American Enterprise Institute except in the case of brief quotations embodied in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. AEI expresses its gratitude to TMI Asia for its support of the Coolfont Conference. Acknowledgements The editors wish to express their gratitude to Jonathan W. Pierce, Editor, NDU Press, for his efforts in preparing this volume for publication. CONTENTS Foreword ooJ Xlll I. Introduction: Crisis in the Taiwan Strait 1 . A History of Cross-Strait Interchange 13 June 7kufel Dreyer . Chinese Military Preparations Against Taiwan 45 Over the Next 10 Years Tai Mint Cheung . Military Spending and Foreign Military 73 Acquisitions by the PRC and Taiwan Richard A. Bitzinger . Chinese Military Hardware and Technology 105 Acquisitions of Concern to Taiwan Bates Gill . Wild Speculations on the Military Balance 131 in the Taiwan Straits Harlan W. Jencks 7. China's Missiles Over the Taiwan Strait: 167 A Political and Military Assessment Richard D. Fisher, Jr. PLAAF Modernization: An Assessment 217 Kenneth I4(.Allen xi . PRC Exercises, Doctrine and Tactics Toward 249 Taiwan: The Naval Dimension Eric McVadon 10. Taiwan's View of Military Balance 279 and the Challenge it Presents Alexander Chieh-chengHuang 11. Korean Views on Taiwan-PRC Relations 303 and the Japan Factor Taeho Kim 12. Back to Basics: The U.S. Perspective on 327 Taiwan-PRC Relations Arthur Waldron xii FOREWORD The People's Republic of China and Taiwan are divided not only by the Taiwan Strait but also by a gulf of political ideology and a tide of rising cultural divergence. Both Beijing and Taipei are playing a waiting game in which "time may not heal all wounds." Beijing prefers a peaceful unification between the mainland and the islands it claims as a province, even though strong elements in China believe that unification will probably be achieved only through the use of military threats or force. Taiwan, meanwhile, has experienced a division between those who desire eventual unification and those who advocate independence. The Strait has been relatively free of military conflict for a number of years, but the dynamics of China's willing- ness to use force and Taiwan's independence movement may be spiralling Beijing and Taipei toward greater military confrontation. Events in 1996 shook the relative stability of the region. Taiwan's presidential elections involved major political parties which support the idea of independence. Defending China's claim to sovereignty over the islands, Beijing responded with missile tests meant to intimidate Taiwan and influence the election. The United States, mindful of its interests in both China and Taiwan, found it necessary to restore stability to the Strait by increasing its military presence. Although the crisis passed, the basic problem of unification and the potential for conflict remain. In this context, a number of the world's most respected Far East/China/Taiwan scholars met, under the auspices of American Enterprise Institute, to analyze the ramifications of the crisis. They focused on the capabilities of the People's Liberation Army to conduct operations in and across the Strait. The authors also explored the policy issues con- nected with the ongoing social, economic, and political differences that divide China and Taiwan. Their insights, presented in this volume, will be of interest to both the student and practitioner of U.S. policy on China, Taiwan, and the region. Chilcoat Lieutenant General, U.S. Army President, National Defense University C~sxs XN ~~ TAXWAN S T~4~ James R. Lilley Resident fellow and Director of Asian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, James R. Lilley was the U. S. ambassador to the People's Republic of China from 1989 to 1991 and to the Republic of Korea from 1986 to 1989. He served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs from 1991 to 1993. Ambassador Lilley is the co-editor of Beyond MFN: Trade with China and American Interests and has written extensively on Asian issues. Chuck Downs Associate Director of Asian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, Chuck Downs is currently writing a book entitled Over the Line: North Korea's Negotiations Under the Armistice. He graduat- ed with honors in political science from Williams College in 1972, and has written extensively on Asian security issues, including arti- cles in the New York Times, Washington Post and other periodicals. A former deputy director of the Pentagon's East Asia office, he has received the Office of the Secretary of Defense Civilian Service and Meritorious Service medals. Introduction: Crisis in the Taiwan Strait by James R. Lilley and Chuck Downs It is possible that every history of the Clinton Administration's defense policy will mention the decision to send a second carrier battle group into the waters off Taiwan in March 1996. In the closing days of Taiwan's first presidential election, the USS Nimitz carrier battle group, on duty in the Mediterranean, was redirected through Southeast Asia toward Taiwan. As a military maneuver, the action was complex but not exceptionally difficult. Yet because of its significance to regional politics and diplomacy, and its long-range implications for the preservation of stability, this military action could be recorded as a watershed event in the American security policy in Asia. The first popular election of a chief executive in China's long history was accompanied by a display of frustration from Beijing. China test- fired missiles into commercial shipping and transportation lanes near Taiwan's two busiest ports. Naturally, concerns over the accuracy of Chinese missiles and questions regarding China's larger intentions worried Taiwan's citizens. Nevertheless, they turned out for the balloting and cast the majority of their votes for the candidate, Lee Teng-hui, who had so displeased Beijing. Taiwan's citizens were reminded of the uneasy standoff that contin- ues to separate Taipei and Beijing, the heirs of the competing factions in the Chinese Civil War. The people of Taiwan are in some ways benefi- ciaries of the military stalemate reached in 1949; their distinct status has allowed them to develop democratic institutions that bear little resem- blance to the form of government in Beijing. But they face perils as well. The People's Republic of China views Taiwan as sovereign Chinese territory that has resisted its authority for over 40 years. Beijing seeks reunification by peaceful means, but threatens the use of force if neces- sary. Its behavior during Taiwan's presidential election was only one way that the PRC challenged Taiwan's security. 2 Lilley and Downs Tensions on both sides of the Taiwan Strait rose as the Chinese inten- sified their efforts to influence Taiwan's voters and curb any slide toward independence. Thousands of miles away, in Washington, members of the United States Congress, propelled by demonstrating sympathy for and solidarity with Taiwan's emergent democracy, called upon the Clinton Administration to take additional steps to reassure Taiwan's citi- zenry and reassert American power in the western Pacific. The Administration accomplished this by deciding to send in the Nimitz carrier battle group. The first carrier on the scene, the USS Independence, and a number of its auxiliary vessels, had already been ordered to waters off Taiwan, to monitor the missile exercises. Permanently stationed in Japan, the Independence would routinely monitor any major regional military exercise.