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World Outlook An Undergraduate Journal of International Affairs at Dartmouth College Editors-in-Chief Abhishek Bhargava ‘18 Jack Sullivan ‘18 Senior Editors Teodore Minerva ‘18 Stephanie Colao ‘19 Alexandra Curnin ‘18 Mark Daniels ‘19 Kevin He ‘19 Daehyun Kim ‘19 Staf Editors Shreyas Agnihorti ‘21 Sam Koreman ‘20 Tyler Baum ‘20 Sophia Linkas ‘21 Luke Bienstock ‘20 Christopher Lyke ‘21 Charles Chen ‘21 Rohini Mandal ‘21 Ciara Comerford ‘21 Karina Martinez ‘19 Mark Cui ‘19 Anabel Moreno-Mendez ‘19 Ashley DuPis ‘19 Diana Niles ‘21 Macguinness Galinson ‘21 Armando Ortiz ‘19 Paul Gralla ‘21 David Perez ‘21 Justin Gu ‘21 Leonardo Placeres ‘18 Samuel J. Heath ‘18 Anindu Rentala ‘21 Gabriel Jenkinson ‘20 Alexander Rounaghi ‘20 Delphine Jrolf ‘21 Madeline Sach ‘21 Timothy Yang ‘21 Te Editors of World Outlook would like to express gratitude to the John Sloan Dickey Center for its encouragement and assistance. Alumni Advisory Board Amb. Robert L. Barry ’56 Peter M. Lehmann ’85 Richard L. Duncan ’57 Edward C. Luck ’70 Dennis C. Goodman ’60 Peter B. Martin ’51 Richard C. Halloran ’51 Amb. Jonathan Moore ’54 Mark C. Henrie ’87 Christopher Wren ’57 Faculty Advisory Board Stephen G. Brooks Michael Mastanduno Douglas E. Haynes Edward Miller Nelson M. Kasfr Martin Dimitrov Founders Timothy E. Bixby ’87 Peter M. Lehmann ’85 Anne E. Eldridge ’87 Mark C. Henrie ’87 Peter D. Murane ’87 About the Journal: World Outlook is a student-run journal of international afairs that publishes papers writ- ten by undergraduate students. In addition, the journal features interviews with major global thinkers and opinion pieces written by our own staf. Our name and missions are motivated by the words of late Dartmouth President John Sloan Dickey. Please visit our website at http://sites.dartmouth.edu/worldoutlook. Subscription Information: World Outlook (ISSN 0895-7452) is published bi-annually. Subscription requests should be directed to [email protected]. All contributions are tax-deduct- ible. Submissions: World Outlook welcomes all current and former undergraduate students to submit papers relating to any aspect of international afairs. Papers to be considered for publication must be available in digital format. Papers should include references and bibliography consis- tent with the Chicago Manual of Style guidelines. Length should be under 7000 words, although outstanding works of greater length will be considered. Submissions must be original works with accurate citations. Submit your work for review to world.outlook@ dartmouth.edu, and include your name, school, and class year. All submissions become property of World Outlook. Contact: World Outlook welcomes comments, criticism and corrections. Letters to the editor and corrections should be emailed to [email protected]. or addressed to: World Outlook at the John Sloan Dickey Center 6048 Haldeman Dartmouth College Fall 2017 Issue 52 CONTENTS Essays Imperfect Interceptors: Te U.S., China, and Ballistic Missile Defense Jaejoon Kim.......................................................................................7 Will Curbing Corruption Invite Investors? Ria Goel...........................................................................................37 Pushes and Pulls: Why Western Women Migrate to the Islamic State Billy McGrath..................................................................................61 Te Future of Saudi Arabian Military Efcacy Alec Pelton.......................................................................................76 Chinese Climate Leadership: Feign or Future? Henry Walter...................................................................................90 Female Voter Turnout in India: Trends, Causes and Efects Colette Rosenberg..........................................................................104 Te U.N.’s Instrumental Negligence During Haiti’s 2010 Cholera Epidemic Amelia Ali......................................................................................116 Editorials Tension Between Tillerson and Trump: A Case Study in Group Agency Dilemmas Sam Koreman.................................................................................29 More Europe: An Analysis of Jean-Claude Juncker’s Vision for the Future of the European Union Samuel J. Heath.............................................................................55 Interview World Outlook Sits Down with Stephen Kotkin.................................123 EDITOR’S NOTE Te frst half of 2017 brought with it the emergence of new leadership, trends, and ideologies across the international system. For many states, the inauguration of a new Ameri- can president brought uncertainty and some concern. In the Fall 2017 issue, we tried to select pieces that highlight and refect some of the major actors and issues that will play a signifcant role in shaping US foreign policy for the next several years. We tried to capture the centrality of transnational issues such as environmental standards, global development, and gender dispari- ties across the world to underscore the increasingly globalized nature of international concerns. We start this issue of with an essay from Jaejoon Kim about the status of ballistic missile defense systems and capabilities of the prevailing powers in the Pacifc region, China and the US. Te next essay featured by Ria Goel takes an empirical approach to fguring out if domestic policy changes, namely in the area of corruption, can spur greater foreign direct in- vestment for developing nations. Ten, Alec Pelton provides us a great essay on the prevailing state of security afairs in the Middle East by honing in on the status of Saudi Arabia’s military and its potential future. Next, we have an essay by Henry Walter concerning China’s possible status as a leader in the realm leading the charge against climate change. Nearing the end, we have an analysis of the prevailing trends that lead women to participate in electoral politics in India by Colette Rosenberg. Finally, for the essays featured in this publication, Amelia Ali provides us with a short, but impactful account of the failure of the UN to properly combat the Cholrea outreak in Haiti in 2010. Alongside the myriad essays that we have selected, we have two editorials writen by our staf members as well as an interview with Stephen Kotkin of Stanford University. Te frst, by Sam Koreman, is an editorial case study about the disconnect in both ideals and policy between current Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, and President, Donald Trump, and how exactly that plays out in current US foreign policy. Te second is a close examination of recent actions and speeches by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, and what that will likely entail for the future of the European Union. Changing gears, our conversation with Kotkin hits on a multitude of topics ranging from US-Russia relations to advice for undergrads wishing to go into similar lines of work as himself. We tremendously enjoyed reading and editing these pieces, and hope that you will as well. Sincerely, - Abhishek Bhargava & Jack Sullivan 7 IMPERFECT INTERCEPTORS: THE U.S., CHINA, AND BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE Jaejoon Kim “Te THAAD issue occupies an entirely diferent dimension from issues of trade or hu- man rights. [It] is a direct threat to China’s national security strategy, and has grave impli- cations for the security of all of Northeast Asia. Tis is not something China can ignore.” Wang Junsheng Executive director of department of China’s Regional Strategy in the National Institute of International Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences INTRODUCTION On April 21, 2017, the Wall Street Journal reported that hackers with iden- tifable links to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched a barrage of cyberattacks against South Korea’s government, military, and private defense compa- nies. While this is not the frst time that South Korea has received cyberattacks from China, cybersecurity frms noticed an upward spike following South Korea’s decision to deploy Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), a ballistic missile defense installation, on its soil.2 In recent months, THAAD has become a central issue in the upcoming South Korean presidential election3, a key test of South Korean sovereignty in the face of Chinese pressure to remove it4 as well as a cornerstone of the U.S.-South Korea security alliance which dates back to the beginning of the Korean War in 1950. THAAD has recently come to be regarded by the two most powerful states in the world—the U.S. and China—as a matter of critical importance for their strategic interests in the Asia-Pacifc. Te missile defense system, however, should not be ana- lyzed in a vacuum; rather, the controversy surrounding THAAD is symptomatic of a broader dispute between the U.S. and China over the former’s ballistic missile defense (BMD) capabilities and, broader still, a competition for regional infuence between two powerful nation-states. It is clear—and has been so for quite some time—that the U.S. and China are engaged in a power struggle to accrue the greatest amount of infuence in East Asia. On one side, the U.S. has been the leader of a unipolar world, establishing its dominance after the Soviet Union’s collapse at the end of the Cold War. On the oth- er, China has stunned the rest of the world with its rapid economic and subsequent military development, quickly poised to exercise infuence over East Asia at a level which challenges that of the United States. However, BMD provides