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Earthquake Losses to Single-Family Dwellings: California Experience

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Earthquake Losses to Single-Family Dwellings: California Experience Earthquake Losses to Single-Family Dwellings: California Experience U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BULLETIN 1939-A Prepared in cooperation with the State of California Department of Insurance /§ L ---. =. i wt. 9<m III Cover: Damage caused by the 1933 Long Bench California, earthquake. Photograph by Harold Er^le, 1933. Chapter A Earthquake Losses to Single-Family Dwellings: California Experience By KARL V. STEINBRUGGE and ST. ALGERMISSEN Prepared in cooperation with the State of California Department of Insurance U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY BULLETIN 1939 ESTIMATION OF EARTHQUAKE LOSSES TO HOUSING IN CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MANUEL LUJAN, JR., Secretary U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY Dallas L Peck, Director Any use of trade, product, or firm names in this publication is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1990 For sale by the Books and Open-File Reports Section U.S. Geological Survey Federal Center Box 25425 Denver, CO 80225 Library of Congress Catalog-in-Publication Data Steinbrugge, Karl V. Earthquake losses to single-family dwellings. (U.S. Geological Survey bulletin ; 1939-A) (Estimation of earthquake losses to housing in California) "Prepared in cooperation with the State of California Department of Insurance." Includes bibliographical references. Supt. of Docs, no.: I 19.3:1939-A 1. Insurance, Earthquake California. 2. Earthquakes California. I. Algermissen, Sylvester Theodore, 1932- . II. California. Dept. of Insurance. III. Title. IV. Series. V. Series: Estimation of earthquake losses to housing in California. QE75.B9 no. 1939-A 557.3 [368.1'22] 90-3436 [HG9981.3S.C2] CONTENTS Abstract Al Introduction Al Acknowledgments A2 Data sources and loss-over-deductible compilation A2 1971 San Fernando earthquake A3 Data sources A3 Single-family wood-frame dwellings, no exclusions A4 All wood-frame dwellings, excluding sites with geologic effects A4 One-story wood-frame dwellings, excluding sites with geologic effects A12 1983 Coalinga earthquake A12 Data sources A12 One-to-four-family wood-frame dwellings A12 One-to-four-family wood-frame dwellings, excluding special cases A12 One-to-four-family wood-frame dwellings Insurance company experience A12 1933 Long Beach earthquake A21 Relationships among construction, geologic effects, and loss over deductible A21 1971 San Fernando earthquake A21 1983 Coalinga earthquake A23 Non-insurance data A23 Insurance claim data A27 Loss distribution and probable maximum loss (PML) A34 Distribution curve A35 Uncertainties concerning degrees of damage A35 Other uncertainties A35 Insurance company data on probable maximum loss (PML) and loss distribution A36 Judgmental considerations A36 Probable maximum loss (PML) for magnitude 6.5 earthquakes A36 Loss over deductible for magnitude 6.5 earthquakes A37 Transferability to other earthquakes A37 Earthquakes of magnitudes other than 6.5 A37 Probable maximum loss (PML) A42 Loss over deductible A42 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake A43 Insurance Source C A43 Geographic distribution of losses A43 Region with paid earthquake claims A43 Areas with highest number of paid claims A45 Deductibles and losses over deductible A45 Adjustment for magnitude 8.25 earthquake and uncertainty factor of 1.5 A46 Commentary on loss-over-deductible results A46 Contents III 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake Continued Insurance Source D A48 Distribution of losses A49 By type of first floor A49 By number of stories A50 By age group A50 By geographic distribution A50 Loss over deductible A53 Loss attenuation with distance from seismic energy release A53 Overview, findings, and recommendations ASS Overview ASS Intensity observations as an alternative data source AS6 ASS f*ftjfcable-maximum-loss (PML) approach ASS Loss-over-deductible approach A60 Applications to simpler methods A61 Other findings A61 Recommendations A61 References cited A62 Appendix: Probable-maximum-loss background information A64 Definition of probable maximum loss A64 Origin of wood-frame-dwelling probable maximum loss A64 Sensitivity: Loss over deductible versus dwelling PML changes A65 FIGURES 1. Graph showing loss over deductible versus deductible for 1971 San Fernando earthquake A27 2. Isoseismal map of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake showing the location of Coalinga A28 3. Graph showing loss over deductible versus deductible for 1983 Coalinga earthquake A29 4. Graph showing loss over deductible versus deductible for 1971 San Fernando and 1983 Coalinga earthquakes and comparing our data and Insurance Source A data (applicable to dwellings of all ages) A32 5. Graph showing loss over deductible versus deductible for 1971 San Fernando and 1983 Coalinga earthquakes and comparing our data and Insurance Source A data (applicable to post-1949 dwellings) A32 6. Graph showing distribution of dwellings versus loss at 0 percent deductible for the 1983 Coalinga earthquake and comparing our data and Insurance Source A data A40 7. Graph showing distribution of dwellings versus loss at 0 percent deductible for the 1983 Coalinga earthquake and comparing our data and Insurance Source A data A40 8. Map showing the epicenter of the 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake and the location of the population-weighted ZIP centroids for data from Insurance Source C A44 IV Contents 9. Graph showing distribution of dwellings versus deductible, based on replacement cost of all earthquake-insured dwellings A46 10. Map showing the epicenter of the 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake and the location of the population-weighted ZIP centroids for data from Insurance Source D A54 11. Graph showing average loss for each ZIP versus distance from fault rupture for the 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake ASS 12. Graph showing average loss for 1-mile interval versus distance from fault rupture for the 1987 Whittier Narrows earthquake ASS 13. Graph showing intensity versus distance from fault rupture for earthquakes in northern California AST 14. Map showing the city of San Fernando and the Sylmar and Pacoima districts of Los Angeles, which were part of the 1971 San Fernando earthquake region A59 15. Graph showing recommended loss over deductible versus deductible, based on equations 4-6 A60 TABLES 1. Types of data acquired from dwelling inspections after the 1971 San Fernando earthquake A3 2. Dwelling loss experience for the 1971 San Fernando earthquake: Loss over deductible. All one-story, one-and-two-story, split-level, and two-story dwellings, including sites with geologic effects A5 3. Dwelling loss experience for the 1971 San Fernando earthquake: Loss distribution by number of dwellings. All one-story, one-and-two-story, split- level, and two-story dwellings, including sites with geologic effects A6 4. Dwelling loss experience for the 1971 San Fernando earthquake: Loss distribution by percent of dwellings. All one-story, one-and-two-story, split- level, and two-story dwellings, including sites with geologic effects A8 5. Dwelling loss experience for the 1971 San Fernando earthquake: Loss over deductible, in millions of 1985 dollars. All one-story, one-and-two-story, split-level, and two-story dwellings, including sites with geologic effects A10 6. Dwelling loss experience for the 1971 San Fernando earthquake: Loss over deductible, excluding sites with geologic effects All 7. Dwelling loss experience for the 1971 San Fernando earthquake: Loss over deductible, excluding sites with geologic effects and one-and-two-story and split-level dwellings A13 8. Dwelling loss experience for the 1971 San Fernando earthquake: Loss distribution by number of dwellings, excluding sites with geologic effects and one-and-two-story and split-level dwellings A14 9. Dwelling loss experience for the 1983 Coalinga earthquake: Loss over deductible. All inspected wood-frame dwellings A16 10. Dwelling loss experience for the 1983 Coalinga earthquake: Loss distribution by number of dwellings A17 11. Dwelling loss experience for the 1983 Coalinga earthquake: Loss distribution by percent of dwellings A19 12. Dwelling loss experience for the 1983 Coalinga earthquake: Loss over deductible, excluding dwellings that had shifted on their foundations or were posted as hazardous or had been demolished before time of inspection A22 Contents 13. Dwelling loss experience for the 1983 Coalinga earthquake: Loss distribution by number of dwellings, excluding dwellings that had shifted on their foundations or were posted as hazardous or had been demolished before time of inspection A24 14. Dwelling loss experience for the 1983 Coalinga earthquake: Loss over deductible, based on Insurance Source A data A26 15. Overview of dwelling loss experience for the 1971 San Fernando earthquake: Loss over deductible A27 16. Overview of dwelling loss experience for the 1971 San Fernando earthquake: Loss over deductible A29 17. Dwelling loss experience for the 1983 Coalinga earthquake: Loss over deductible, Insurance Source A, insured values and paid claims; excluding dwellings that had shifted on their foundations or were posted as hazardous or had been demolished before time of inspection or were higher than one story A30 18. Dwelling loss experience for the 1983 Coalinga earthquake: Loss over deductible, Insurance Source A, realtor market values, less land values; excluding dwellings that had shifted on their foundations or were posted as hazardous or had been demolished before time of inspection or were higher than one story A31 19. Comparison of loss over deductible between our data and Insurance Source A data for
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