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Bhutan Green Power Development Project

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Bhutan Green Power Development Project Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors Project Number: 37399 October 2008 Proposed Loans, Asian Development Fund Grant, Technical Assistance Grant, and Administration of Grant Bhutan: Green Power Development Project CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of 1 September 2008) Currency Unit – ngultrum (Nu) Nu1.00 = $0.023 $1.00 = Nu43.95 ABBREVIATIONS ACEF – Asian Clean Energy Fund ADB – Asian Development Bank ADF – Asian Development Fund BEA – Bhutan Electricity Authority BPC – Bhutan Power Corporation CDM – clean development mechanism CDTA – capacity development technical assistance DGPC – Druk Green Power Corporation DHI – Druk Holding and Investments DHPC – Dagachhu Hydro Power Corporation DOE – Department of Energy EIA – environmental impact assessment FIRR – financial internal rate of return FYP – five-year plan GDP – gross domestic product EIA – environmental impact assessment EMP – environmental management plan ICB – international competitive bidding IDA – International Development Association IEE – initial environmental examination IMF – International Monetary Fund NCB – national competitive bidding NEC – National Environment Commission NPPF – National Pension and Provident Fund NPV – net present value OCR – ordinary capital resources OeKB – Oesterreichische Kontrollbank Aktiengesellschaft (Austrian export credit agency) PAVA – Property Assessment and Valuation Agency PPA – power purchase agreement PPP – public–private partnership RED – Renewable Energy Division TA – technical assistance THPA – Tala Hydroelectric Project Authority TPC – Tata Power Company TPTC – Tata Power Trading Company WACC – weighted average cost of capital WEIGHTS AND MEASURES GWh – gigawatt-hour kV – kilovolt, 1,000 volts kWh – kilowatt-hour MW – megawatt NOTES (i) The fiscal year (FY) of the Government ends on 30 June. The fiscal year of its companies ends on 31 December. FY before a calendar year denotes the year in which the fiscal year ends. (ii) In this report, "$" refers to US dollars. Vice-President X. Zhao, Operations 1 Director General K. Senga, South Asia Department (SARD) Director T. Kandiah, Energy Division, SARD Team leader K. Ogino, Energy Specialist, SARD Team members I. Caetani, Social Development Specialist, SARD H. Kobayashi, Energy Specialist, SARD N. Kulichenko, Environment Specialist, SARD K. Mulqueeny, Senior Counsel, Office of the General Counsel P. Song, Head, Project Administration Unit, SARD P. Wijayatunga, Energy Specialist, SARD CONTENTS Page LOAN AND GRANT PROJECT SUMMARY i I. THE PROPOSAL 1 II. RATIONALE: SECTOR PERFORMANCE, PROBLEMS, AND OPPORTUNITIES 1 A. Performance Indicators and Analysis 1 B. Analysis of Key Problems and Opportunities 3 III. THE PROPOSED PROJECT 7 A. Impact and Outcome 7 B. Outputs 7 C. Special Features 8 D. ADF IX Grant, Hard-Term ADF, and Ordinary Capital Resources 9 E. Project Investment Plan 10 F. Financing Plan 11 G. Implementation Arrangements 13 IV. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE 17 V. PROJECT BENEFITS, IMPACTS, ASSUMPTIONS, AND RISKS 17 A. Financial Justification 17 B. Economic Justification 19 C. Social and Poverty Assessment 19 D. Environmental Assessment 20 E. Risks and Assumptions 21 VI. ASSURANCES AND CONDITIONS 22 A. Specific Assurances 22 B. Conditions for Loan and Grant Effectiveness 25 C. Conditions for Disbursement 26 VII. RECOMMENDATION 26 APPENDIXES 1. Design and Monitoring Framework 27 2. Power Sector Assessment 30 3. External Assistance to the Power Sector 33 4. Debt Sustainability Assessment 34 5. Detailed Cost Estimates 37 6. Financial Structure for Dagachhu Hydropower Development 41 7. Project Implementation and Readiness Schedules 43 8. Procurement Plan 45 9. Technical Assistance for Promotion of Clean Power Export Development 47 10. Financial Analysis 50 11. Financial Performance and Management 53 12. Economic Analysis 62 13. Summary Poverty Reduction and Social Strategy 65 14. Summary Resettlement Plan 69 15. Abstract of Summary Initial Environment Examination 75 SUPPLEMENTARY APPENDIXES (available on request) A. Detailed Debt Sustainability Assessment B. Outline Terms of Reference and Cost Estimates of Technical Assistance C. Detailed Financial Performance D. Detailed Economic Analysis E. Short Resettlement Plan F. Poverty and Social Analysis G. Poverty Impact Analysis H. Summary Initial Environment Examination and Initial Environment Examinations I. Risk Mitigation Analysis J. Currency Risk Analysis K. National Competitive Bidding Annex for Bhutan L. Sustainable Solar Technology Application for Rural Electrification LOAN AND GRANT PROJECT SUMMARY Borrower Kingdom of Bhutan Classification Targeting classification: General intervention Sector: Energy Subsectors: Renewable energy generation Themes: Sustainable economic growth, private sector development, regional cooperation Subthemes: Fostering physical infrastructure development, public–private partnerships, cross-border infrastructure Environment Category B. An initial environmental examination was completed. Assessment Social Category B for involuntary resettlement and category C for Assessment indigenous peoples. Project Description The Green Power Development Project has two components: (i) regional clean power trade, and (ii) renewable energy access for the poor. Under the first component, the Dagachhu hydropower development (a 114-megawatt [MW] run-of-river type) aims to export power from Bhutan to India through the existing grid to India. The rural electrification component will provide access to electricity sourced from hydropower to 8,767 households and facilities with grid extensions, and electricity sourced from solar energy to 119 remote public facilities (e.g., schools, health clinics, and other community facilities) on an off- grid basis. The Dagachhu hydropower development will be promoted by a joint venture company between Druk Green Power Corporation (DGPC) in Bhutan and Tata Power Company (TPC) in India through a public–private partnership (PPP). The rural electrification component will be mainly served by Bhutan Power Corporation (BPC), a public utility service company. Rationale Bhutan has substantial clean and renewable hydropower capacity. Theoretical potential hydropower is 26,760 MW—only about 6% is being used. Of the total 1,500 MW installed, 80% is exported to India after meeting domestic consumption. Power exports account for the largest source of Government revenue in the form of taxes and dividends from hydropower companies. Despite the nation’s net power surplus for export, most rural residents do not have access to electricity. Only 40% of rural households use electricity as their main source of lighting as compared to 96.4% of urban households. Expansion of rural electrification will provide access to more remote rural areas where the costs of investment, operation, and maintenance will be higher due to low population ii density and unfavorable terrain. Since about 70% of the population lives in rural areas, electricity for all is a significant implementation challenge. Operating subsidies are essential to ensure the sustainability of expanding rural electrification. In Bhutan, subsidies are regulated and provided from royalty revenues yielded from power exports to cross-subsidize electricity prices, in particular for rural domestic customers. The Government distributes the remaining power export revenues to support socioeconomic goals, such as health and education, as well as infrastructure development, e.g., rural roads and bridges. Thus, rural electrification and hydropower export are strongly interrelated with inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction. Expanding generation capacity for export and rural access to electricity will enhance energy and social security. The Government aims for (i) 100% electrification by 2013, and (ii) an additional 10,000 MW of hydropower development and trading by 2020. In rural areas, electricity from hydropower and solar sources will replace kerosene and fuelwood. Given the coal- dominated Indian power market, clean energy development for power export will promote low-carbon energy sources and foster economic cooperation in the South Asia region. Accelerating the development of hydropower for export is of strategic significance for Bhutan’s economy. Given the Government’s limited fiscal capacity for large infrastructure projects, the hydropower development strategy is to leverage public and private investments through private participation in development projects. This approach is expected to accelerate hydropower development, and generate income for more socioeconomic development. To promote the country’s strategy, the project preparatory technical assistance (TA) supported the Government in establishing a policy and institutional framework for public and private participation in hydropower development. The Dagachhu hydropower development is a demonstration PPP facility in line with the Hydropower Development Policy, which is to promote private and foreign investments for hydropower generation in Bhutan. Further TA support will be provided to develop Government capacity for hydropower export. Impact and Outcome The impact of the Project is to sustain the country’s inclusive economic growth by promoting cross-border power trade and electricity access. As an outcome, the power sector is to improve the coverage of distribution and expand electricity export through clean power development in a sustainable manner. Investment for Dagachhu hydropower will generate a long-term revenue stream for Bhutan to finance its enormous development
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