Torrild Denmark
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Torrild Denmark Annual Energy Production Assessment 3 turbines Enercon 10. JANUAR 2020 1/26 Torrild Denmark RECIPIENT Green Wind Denmark ApS Egå Havvej 21 DK-8250 Egå Attn. Jørn Motzkus DATE 10 January 2020 PREPARED BY EMD International A/S Niels Jernes Vej 10 DK- 9220 Aalborg T: + 45 96 35 44 44 E: [email protected] PRINCIP A L CONSULTANT Madalina Calin EMD-DK APPROVED BY Thomas Sørensen EMD-DK DOCUMENT 200110_19179_A_MC_0 CLASSIFICATION Commercial in confidence 200110_19179_A_MC_0_ts2 EMD International A/S 2/26 D O C U M E N T R EVISIONS REVISION DATE C H A N G E D CHAPTER DESCRIPTION OF CHANGE BY 0 10/01/2010 MC All KEY TO DOCUMENT CLASSIFICATION Strictly Confidential: Recipients only Private and Confidential: For disclosure to individuals directly concerned within the recipient’s organisation. Commercial in Confidence: Not to be disclosed outside the recipient’s organisation Client’s Discretion: Distribution at the discretion of the client subject to contractual agreement. Published: Available to the general public. LIABILITIES EMD International A/S (EMD) does not warrant, guarantee or make any representations regarding the delivered consultancy material caused by errors or omissions in the delivered data. EMD cannot be held liable for erroneous results caused by inaccuracy, limitations or malfunctioning of models or software used. For any claim whatsoever related to the subject matter of this consultancy job, the liability of EMD for actual damages, regardless of the form of action, shall be limited to the total amount paid to EMD for the services provided as part of this consultancy job. 200110_19179_A_MC_0_ts2 EMD International A/S 3/26 Executive Summary EMD has been assigned to carry out an annual energy production assessment on the Torrild wind farm project, Denmark. The project consists of three Enercon E82 2350 turbines with a hub height of 58.9m. The assessment is conducted according to EMD’s standard procedure for AEP assessments in Denmark. This method implies the use of a downscaled mesoscale data and the calibration of the wind model with operational data from existing wind turbines. The downscaling methodology is moreover combined with a traditional WAsP vertical and horizontal extrapolation. The annual energy production has been calculated and losses and uncertainties have been assessed. The resulting P50, P75 and P90 (production percentiles) are listed in table 1. The production after losses (P50) is the sold electricity (at the billing meter). Table 1. Annual Energy Production result. G R O S S A E P W A K E L O S S AEP = G R O S S - WAKE MEAN WIND SPEED AT HUB [MWH/Y] I N T E R N A L - [ GWH/Y ] HEIGHT (FREE WIND SPEED), M/S EXTERNAL 15,511.3 6.00 14,586.8 6.4 Table 2. Annual Energy production, Capacity factor, Full load hours and uncertainty results at 20 years horizon N E T A E P 20Y HORIZON UNCERTAINTY P - 50 C A P A C I T Y F L H P - 9 0 C A P A C I T Y F L H 1Y 2 0 Y [ M WH/YR] F A C T O R [ % ] [H] [ M WH/YR] F A C T O R [ % ] [H] [%] [%] 14,098 22.8 2,000 12,070 19.5 1,712 13.3% 11.2% 200110_19179_A_MC_0_ts2 EMD International A/S 4/26 Index 1 Project Description ............................................................................................................................................. 6 2 Description of the calculation method ............................................................................................................... 8 3 Reference turbines ............................................................................................................................................. 9 3.1 Available Data ........................................................................................................................................... 9 3.2 Normalized production procedure ........................................................................................................... 9 4 Wind Model ...................................................................................................................................................... 12 4.1 Wind data ............................................................................................................................................... 12 4.2 Terrain data ............................................................................................................................................ 13 4.3 Wind model calibration .......................................................................................................................... 14 5 AEP calculation ................................................................................................................................................. 18 5.1 Power curves .......................................................................................................................................... 18 5.2 Wake model ............................................................................................................................................ 18 5.3 Gross AEP ................................................................................................................................................ 18 6 Losses & bias .................................................................................................................................................... 19 6.1 Bias .......................................................................................................................................................... 19 6.2 Wake losses ............................................................................................................................................ 19 6.3 Availability losses .................................................................................................................................... 20 6.4 Electrical losses ....................................................................................................................................... 20 6.5 Environmental losses .............................................................................................................................. 20 6.6 Curtailment losses .................................................................................................................................. 20 7 Uncertainties .................................................................................................................................................... 22 7.1 Wind measurements .............................................................................................................................. 22 7.2 Long term correction .............................................................................................................................. 22 7.3 Year-to-year variation ............................................................................................................................. 23 7.4 Future climate ......................................................................................................................................... 23 7.5 Vertical and horizontal extrapolation ..................................................................................................... 23 7.6 Power curve uncertainty ........................................................................................................................ 23 7.7 Uncertainty on losses ............................................................................................................................. 23 8 References ........................................................................................................................................................ 24 Appendix A – Gross AEP calculation ......................................................................................................................... 25 Appendix B – Net AEP calculation ............................................................................................................................ 26 List of Figures 200110_19179_A_MC_0_ts2 EMD International A/S 5/26 Figure 1 Location (orange cross) of the Torrild wind farm. (Open Street maps) ....................................................... 7 Figure 2 Location of the turbines of the Torrild wind farm project (red symbol) (map: Geodatastyrelsen) ............. 7 Figure 3: Monthly windiness index from 1999 to 2019. ............................................................................................ 9 Figure 4: EMD-ConWx and EMD Europe (ERA5+) long-term yearly windiness index. ............................................. 10 Figure 5: Linear regression between ideal production and EMD Europe (ERA5+) energy index. Example for a 900kW Neg Micon-Torrild turbine....................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 6 Correlations between the production data of the reference turbines and the 2 indices available. .......... 11 Figure 7 Location of the mesoscale node (orange symbol) and the turbines (red symbol) (map: Geodatastyrelsen) ................................................................................................................................................................. 12 Figure 8 Energy rose at the EMD Europe (ERA5+) data point at 58.9m ................................................................... 13 Figure 9 Input of forest areas used for the calculation of the displacement height for the 20year horizon situation. ................................................................................................................................................................