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New England Patriots (7-2) @ San Francisco 49Ers (1-8)

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New England Patriots (7-2) @ San Francisco 49Ers (1-8) NFL Week 11 – Preview : New England Patriots (7-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-8) Um 22:25 Uhr erwartet uns auf Pro7Maxx ein Duell, welches schon im Vorhinein entschieden zu sein scheint. Die New England Patriots treffen auf die San Francisco 49ers. Doch das ist nicht unbedingt der Fall. Die Patriots haben letzte Woche im Spiel gegen die Seattle Seahawks erstaunliche Schwächen in der Defense gezeigt. Russell Wilson zerlegte die Patriots-Defense mit 348 Yards, die zu drei Touchdowns führten. Außerdem fällt mit Tight End Rob Gronkowski der stärkste Receiver auf Seiten der Pats aus. Nichtsdestotrotz stellen die Patriots die wohl gefährlichste Offense der Liga. Nicht nur, dass, wie unter Brady üblich, das Passspiel hervorragend funktioniert. Auch das Laufspiel ist nicht zu unterschätzen. LeGarrette Blount bringt im Schnitt 3.8 Yards pro Lauf auf den Rasen. Gegen die schwache Laufverteidigung der 49ers (erlauben 5.1 Yards pro Laufspiel) wird Blount wieder eine wichtige Rolle spielen und sicherlich einen weiteren Rushing Touchdown zu seinen ohnehin schon 12 erlaufenen hinzufügen. Dies wird wiederum die in der aktuellen Saison nicht ganz so starke O-Line der Patriots entlasten. Play-Action Spielzüge sind hier das Stichwort. Brady wird also voraussichtlich wieder schwer zu stoppen sein. Auf Seiten der 49ers könnten wir jetzt sagen, dass mit Colin Kaepernick ein Quarterback in der Pocket steht, der gerne scrambled und durchschnittlich starke 7.1 Yards pro Lauf liefert. New England hat bekanntermaßen Probleme mit laufstarken QB’s (zuletzt Wilson und Taylor von den Buffalo Bills). Doch wir richten heute unsere Aufmerksamkeit auf den Coach der 49ers. Chip Kelly galt bis vor kurzem als Mastermind unter den Coaches. Seine schnelle “Spread“ Offense war ligaweit gefürchtet. Mit den Eagles holte er zweimal in Folge den NFC East Titel, teilweise mit eindeutigen Erfolgen gegen die Divisional-Rivals. Seine Offense war so schnell, dass er seine gesamte Coaching Philosophie in einer 30- Sekunden-Werbung erklären konnte. Unter seiner Leitung zerstörte das College Team Oregon die Verteidigungen von Coaches wie Pete Carroll (Seahawks), Monte Kiffin (Jacksonville) oder dem aktuellen Defensive Coordinator der Chicago Bears, Vic Fangio. Seit zwei Jahren jedoch kriseln die Teams unter Kelly. Die Eagles stellten unter ihm eine Zeit lang die stärkste Offensive der Liga. In der vergangenen Saison rutschte man aber ins letzte Drittel ab. Auch die 49ers sind aktuell nicht bekannt für ihre Offensive. Doch woran liegt das? Es ist simpel erklärt: Die No-Huddle Offense unter Kelly gab zu Hochzeiten der Defense samt Coordinator keine Möglichkeit, das Team anzupassen. Kelly überrannte die Gegner wortwörtlich. Mittlerweile ist das Schema jedoch bekannt. Außerdem können sich die Verteidiger mittlerweile mit wenigen Worten koordinieren und sich dem Gegner anpassen. Außerdem, so bemerkenswert es klingt, macht die Liga diese Spielweise nicht mit. In der NFL ist der Schiedsrichter solange unter Kontrolle des Balles, bis alle Schiedsrichter bereit sind. Das bremst Kelly’s Offensive nachweislich aus. Im College rannte Oregon noch 83 Plays pro Spiel, in der NFL mit den Eagles nur noch 65. Nicht nur Kelly, auch der Coach auf der Gegenseite, Bill Belichick, wurden so gebremst. Wir könnten jetzt noch weiter ausufern und das simple Schema des Letzteren erläutern, doch der Grund für die kommende Niederlage heute liegt, neben dem offensichtlich schwächeren Roster der 49ers, vor allem in der Anpassungsfähigkeit der Coaches. Belichick hat es geschafft, sich der Liga anzupassen und erfolgreich zu sein, Chip Kelly bisher nicht. Deshalb gehen wir von einem ungefährdeten Sieg der Patriots aus. New England wird wütend sein aufgrund der Niederlage in der letzten Woche und will zeigen, dass sie immer noch die stärkste Mannschaft sind. Sieg Patriots.
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