Mike Clay's 2021 NFL Projection Guide
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Mike Clay's 2021 NFL Projection Guide Updated: 9/9/2021 Glossary: Page 2-33: Team Projections Page 34-45: QB, RB, WR and TE projections Page 46-51: Category Leader projections Page 52: Projected standings, playoff teams and 2022 draft order Page 53: Projected Strength of Schedule Page 54: Unit Grades Page 55-64: Positional Unit Ranks Page 65: Current Coaching Staffs Understanding the graphics: *The numbers shown are projections for the 2021 NFL regular season (Weeks 1-18). *Some columns may not seem to be adding up correctly, but this is simply a product of rounding. The totals you see are correct. *Looking for sortable projections by position or category? Check out the projections tab inside the ESPN Fantasy game. *'Team stat rankings' is where each team is projected to finish in the category that is shown. *'Unit Grades' is not related to fantasy football and is an attempt at objective an ranking of each team at 10 key positions. The overall grades are weighted based on positional importance. The scale is 4.0 (best) to 0.1 (worst). A full rundown of Unit Grades can be found on page 51. *'Strength of Schedule Ranking' is based on 2021 rosters (not 2020 team record). '1' is easiest and '32' hardest. See the full list on page 50. *Note that prior to the official release of the NFL schedule (generally late April), the schedule shown includes the correct opponents, but the order is simulated. *Have a question or notice an error? Contact Mike Clay on Twitter @MikeClayNFL 2021 Arizona Cardinals Projections OFFENSE PASSING RUSHING RECEIVING PPR DEFENSE WEEKLY SCORE PROJECTIONS Pos Player Gm Att Comp Yds TD INT Sk Att Yds TD Tgt Rec Yd TD Pts Rk Pos Player Snap Tkl Sack INT FF Rk Wk Opp Loc Tm Opp Win Prob QB Kyler Murray 16 581 378 4084 25 12 37 126 726 9 0 0 0 0 356 3 DI J.J. Watt 934 52 6.6 0.0 5 1 TEN V 24.8 26.4 44% QB Chris Streveler 16 32 19 212 1 1 2 3 13 0 0 0 0 0 14 52 DI Corey Peters 527 29 2.8 0.0 71 2 MIN H 23.0 23.6 48% QB Total 32 613 397 4297 26 13 39 129 739 9 0 0 0 0 370 55 DI Zach Allen 472 32 2.4 0.0 74 3 JAX V 26.8 21.4 69% RB Chase Edmonds 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 166 743 5 70 54 404 3 211 21 DI Jordan Phillips 299 17 1.9 0.0 104 4 LAR V 23.3 25.8 41% RB James Conner 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 148 633 6 35 28 204 1 152 34 DI Leki Fotu 204 12 0.9 0.0 136 5 SF H 24.2 22.7 55% RB Jonathan Ward 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 110 1 9 7 51 0 31 94 DI Rashard Lawrence 78 5 0.3 0.0 158 6 CLV V 22.5 27.3 33% RB Eno Benjamin 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 73 1 3 2 17 0 16 108 DI Michael Dogbe 46 3 0.2 0.0 165 7 HST H 28.7 18.5 83% RB Total 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 357 1559 12 116 92 676 4 409 257 DI Total 2559 150 15.2 0.2 713 8 GB H 24.2 26.3 42% WR DeAndre Hopkins 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 162 112 1368 7 292 4 ED Chandler Jones 934 48 8.5 0.2 19 9 SF V 23.1 24.0 47% WR Rondale Moore 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 86 57 681 3 147 65 ED Markus Golden 714 48 6.6 0.2 35 10 CAR H 26.5 19.4 74% WR A.J. Green 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 87 49 606 4 136 71 ED Devon Kennard 351 21 2.9 0.1 99 11 SEA V 24.3 26.9 41% WR Christian Kirk 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 14 0 53 34 420 3 96 88 ED Dennis Gardeck 66 4 0.9 0.0 142 12 0.0 0.0 WR Andy Isabella 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 6 70 0 15 154 ED Victor Dimukeje 22 1 0.1 0.0 158 13 CHI V 23.2 21.3 57% WR Antoine Wesley 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 22 0 5 183 ED Total 2087 122 19.0 0.4 453 14 LAR H 24.8 24.3 52% WR Total 94 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 14 0 400 260 3168 19 690 565 LB Zaven Collins 978 129 2.6 1.0 12 15 DET V 27.0 21.5 69% TE Maxx Williams 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 41 30 291 2 72 37 LB Isaiah Simmons 857 106 2.3 0.7 29 16 IND H 24.8 21.6 61% TE Darrell Daniels 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 12 123 1 30 59 LB Jordan Hicks 253 31 0.5 0.2 86 17 DAL V 25.5 27.6 42% TE Demetrius Harris 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 4 39 0 10 83 LB Tanner Vallejo 154 21 0.3 0.1 105 18 SEA H 25.9 25.4 52% TE Total 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 45 453 4 112 179 LB Zeke Turner 66 9 0.1 0.1 132 Total 422 404 54% Total 233 613 397 4297 26 13 39 489 2312 21 579 397 4297 26 1581 1056 LB Total 2307 296 6 2.1 364 PROJECTED WINS: 9.1 (NFL RANK: 14) CB Byron Murphy 1011 71 2.0 2.1 14 Strength of Schedule Ranking: 20 CB Robert Alford 769 47 0.1 1.8 76 CB Marco Wilson 604 46 0.3 1.3 83 UNIT TEAM STAT CB Tay Gowan 330 25 0.1 0.7 114 GRADES RANKINGS CB Luq Barcoo 165 12 0.1 0.3 131 QB 3.0 Passing Ret RETURNS Att Yds TD CB Total 2878 201 3 6.2 418 RB 1.0 DB 6 KR Rondale Moore 18 408 0.1 S Budda Baker 1043 122 1.8 2.1 2 WR 2.9 Att 12 KR Chase Edmonds 12 267 0.1 S Jalen Thompson 879 80 0.4 1.3 53 TE 0.1 Com 13 KR Total 30 676 0.2 S Deionte Thompson 275 23 0.1 0.5 86 OL 2.6 Yds 20 PR Christian Kirk 26 173 0.2 S Charles Washington 55 5 0.0 0.1 120 INT 3.1 TD 16 PR Total 26 173 0.2 S Total 2252 230 2 4.0 261 EDGE 2.3 INT 13 Total 12082 1000 45 13 2209 OB LB 2.1 Sack 22 CB 0.4 Rushing S 2.3 Att 6 Off Rk 10 Yds 5 KICKER FGM FGA FG% XPM XPA XP% OFFENSIVE LINE Def Rk 19 TD 2 Matt Prater 27 32 83% 42 45 94% LT D.J. Humphries Ovr Rk 14 Defense LG Justin Pugh Tackles 16 PUNTER Att Yds Avg In 20 C Rodney Hudson Sack 2 Andy Lee 65 3030 46.9 24 RG Justin Murray INT 19 RT Kelvin Beachum D/ST 21 2021 Atlanta Falcons Projections OFFENSE PASSING RUSHING RECEIVING PPR DEFENSE WEEKLY SCORE PROJECTIONS Pos Player Gm Att Comp Yds TD INT Sk Att Yds TD Tgt Rec Yd TD Pts Rk Pos Player Snap Tkl Sack INT FF Rk Wk Opp Loc Tm Opp Win Prob QB Matt Ryan 16 585 381 4363 25 11 39 29 114 1 0 0 0 0 268 17 DI Grady Jarrett 870 58 7.5 0.1 4 1 PHI H 22.8 22.4 52% QB Feleipe Franks 16 31 18 205 1 1 2 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 12 62 DI Tyeler Davison 544 41 1.5 0.1 62 2 TB V 20.4 29.2 20% QB Total 32 616 399 4569 26 12 42 30 119 1 0 0 0 0 280 79 DI Jonathan Bullard 454 30 1.5 0.0 89 3 NYG V 20.7 23.7 39% RB Mike Davis 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 232 912 7 48 39 263 1 202 22 DI John Cominsky 250 17 1.4 0.0 119 4 WAS H 20.3 24.1 37% RB Wayne Gallman 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 120 505 4 12 9 66 0 92 55 DI Marlon Davidson 111 7 0.5 0.0 151 5 NYJ H 24.5 22.0 59% RB Cordarrelle Patterson 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 56 256 2 30 22 195 1 85 58 DI Ta'Quon Graham 87 6 0.3 0.0 154 6 0.0 0.0 RB Keith Smith 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 0 6 4 36 0 10 113 DI Total 2318 160 12.7 0.2 579 7 MIA V 22.8 24.4 44% RB Total 61 0 0 0 0 0 0 411 1682 12 95 74 560 3 389 248 ED Dante Fowler Jr.