RELATIONS BETWEEN AFGHANISTAN AND CENTRAL ASIAN STATES AFTER 2014 Incentives, Constraints and Prospects nargis kassenova STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. GOVERNING BOARD Göran Lennmarker, Chairman (Sweden) Dr Dewi Fortuna Anwar (Indonesia) Dr Vladimir Baranovsky (Russia) Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi (Algeria) Jayantha Dhanapala (Sri Lanka) Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger (Germany) Professor Mary Kaldor (United Kingdom) The Director DIRECTOR Professor Tilman Brück (Germany) Signalistgatan 9 SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden Telephone: +46 8 655 97 00 Fax: +46 8 655 97 33 Email: [email protected] Internet: www.sipri.org Relations between Afghanistan and Central Asian states after 2014 Incentives, Constraints and Prospects NARGIS KASSENOVA May 2014 © SIPRI 2014 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of SIPRI or as expressly permitted by law. Printed in Sweden ISBN 978–91–85114–84–9 Contents Preface iv Summary v Abbreviations vi 1. Introduction 1 2. Afghanistan and the Central Asian states since 1992 3 Factors shaping Central Asian policies towards Afghanistan 3 Central Asian states’ contributions to military and reconstruction efforts in 5 Afghanistan since 2001 3. Central Asian perspectives on the future security of Afghanistan 9 The withdrawal of the International Security Assistance Force and related 9 security concerns Perspectives on conflict resolution and stabilization in Afghanistan 12 4. Cooperation among Central Asian states 17 Participation in multilateral regional security frameworks 17 Regional economic projects 20 5. Initiatives on Afghanistan proposed by Central Asian states 23 Kazakhstan’s United Nations hub for Afghanistan 23 Kyrgyzstan’s Bishkek Initiative and other proposals 24 Tajikistan’s Dushanbe Four 24 Turkmenistan’s international high-level meeting on confidence building in 25 Afghanistan Uzbekistan’s ‘6 + 3’ Contact Group for Afghanistan 26 6. Conclusions 27 Preface Discussions among regional actors and within the international community about the implications of the planned withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan have inspired the search for regional solutions to the challenge of stabilization in the country, and created opportunities for new dialogues on relations between Afghanistan and Central Asian states. SIPRI launched the Wider Central Asia (WCA) initiative in January 2012 with the express purpose of promoting and facilitating dialogue on security in Afghanistan’s neighbourhood, building on the clear need for cooperative policy approaches based on a better understanding of the interests and worries of Afghanistan and its neighbours. The initiative has brought together experts and officials from Iran, Pakistan and five ntralCe Asian states—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz- stan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—as well as from Afghanistan, China, Europe and the United States. It has also complemented structured dialogue with independent analysis. While cooperation between Central Asian states and Afghanistan will most likely be stalled by growing insecurity, new opportunities could emerge in the form of relationships with other actors, including adjacent states, regional powers and multilateral frameworks. In this sense, Central Asian states will continue to play an important role as mediators and interlocutors. I would like to congratulate Nargis Kassenova for her excellent and thorough analysis of relations between Afghanistan and Central Asian states. Gratitude is also due to the anonymous referees for their feedback on the paper as well as the numerous regional officials and experts who have contributed their insights and energy to the WCA initiative. I would also like to thank the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, which generously funds the initiative. Finally, thanks to those within and outside SIPRI who helped in the development of this report, in particular Dr Neil Melvin, Dr Bruce Koepke, Theresa Höghammar, and the SIPRI editors, especially Dr David Prater. Professor Tilman Brück Director, SIPRI Stockholm, May 2014 Summary All Central Asian states are concerned about the potential spillover of insecurity from Afghanistan. The impending withdrawal of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) is seen as potentially leading to destabilization, with negative consequences for the region, including the potential impact of militant activities, the spread of radical Islamist ideas, increased drug trafficking and refugee crises. Despite these common fears, there are many differences in the policies of Central Asian states toward Afghanistan, and a variety of views in the region on the future of international stabilization efforts and further prospects for increasing ties and trade with Afghanistan. In order to fully understand the interconnected relationships between Afghani- stan and Central Asian states, it is first necessary to explore the broader geopolitical context, including Central Asian states’ involvement in collective security arrangements in the post-Soviet space, the importance of ethnic affinities, and the extent of each state’s vulnerability to spillovers of instability from Afghanistan. Central Asian experts generally explain protracted armed vio- lence in Afghanistan as having been caused by a combination of factors including the failure of political centralization and state-building processes; ethnic, religious and tribal divisions; the meddling of external actors; and the criminal- ization of society. Central Asian states have made use of international organizations and platforms to address their Afghanistan-related security challenges. These frame- works allow Central Asian states to draw on external resources and also initiate dialogue and increase coordination among themselves. However, Central Asian states do not have sufficient capacity to significantly influence the processes in Afghanistan. Another obstacle to their positive contribution is the lack of trust and cooperation in the region. Furthermore, Central Asian states are constrained by complex geopolitics of place and intra-regional rivalries. Nevertheless, it can be argued that the connection between Central Asia and South Asia, which began with the collapse of the Soviet Union, is growing stronger. The Soviet-era isolation of Central Asian states from their traditional neighbours has ended, and opportunities for business, educational and people-to- people links will only increase. Abbreviations CASA-1000 Central Asia–South Asia electricity grid CBM Confidence-building measure CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CPF Collective Peacekeeping Force CRDF Collective Rapid Deployment Force CRRF Collective Rapid Reaction Force CST Collective Security Treaty CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organization IMU Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan ISAF International Security Assistance Force MFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NDN Northern Distribution Network OEF Operation Enduring Freedom OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organisation TAPI Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India gas pipeline UN United Nations UNHCR UN High Commissioner for Refugees UNODC UN Office on Drugs and Crime 1. Introduction A rich array of publications on relations between Afghanistan and Central Asian states have appeared over the past several years, triggered by concerns about the implications of the planned withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan as well as the search for regional solutions to the problem of stabilization in the country. Studies have primarily focused on potential spillovers resulting from the 2014 security transition, particularly the risk of increased terrorist and drug trafficking activities, the roles that the European Union (EU), Russia and the United States can play, and the effects of military and financial assistance to Afghanistan on domestic and regional politics in Central Asia.1 Discussions and estimates of the security and wealth-creation potential of developing more ties and trade between Central Asia and South Asia by using Afghanistan as a bridge continue, although the level of scepticism about the feasibility of these plans has been growing. This paper uses a comparative approach to argue that there are many common- alities and differences in the policies of the five Central Asian states—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—towards Afghanistan, and a variety of views in the region on the security situation in Afghanistan, the future of international stabilization efforts, the implications of the withdrawal of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and further prospects for increas- ing ties and trade with Afghanistan.2 The approaches and policies of each Central Asian state can be explained by referring to factors such as its proximity to and existing links with Afghanistan, its own vulnerability and capacity as a state, its perspectives and attitudes, and its foreign-policy style, along with complex intra- regional politics and the geopolitical context.