The Dynamics of the US-Uzbekistan Relations

The Dynamics of the US-Uzbekistan relations As practice has shown, if Uzbekistan is moving closer to the US, it automatically moves away from Russia and vice versa. That, at least, has been the case in recent times whenever Tashkent has begun active cooperation with the United States. Currently, we are witnessing yet another phase of fairly close cooperation between Tashkent and Washington,” – Kazakh expert Ruslan Izimov writes in an article exclusively for cabar.asia. Follow us on LinkedIn! US Strategy in Central Asia has undergone significant changes in 25 years of the region’s independence. This strategy is now characterized by a focus on specific, key countries through whom it can ensure the spread of its influence to other countries. At the moment it is Uzbekistan that is most suited to a role as Washington’s key partner in the region. However, it should be noted that Uzbek-US relations over the past 25 years have not been very stable. Ties between Tashkent and Washington are subject to periodical cooling before warmer relations re-emerge. This is mostly due to the specific nuances of the foreign policy pursued by the Republic of Uzbekistan, which adopts different vectors at different points in time. As a rule, when one of the major powers deepens contacts with Tashkent, it does so at the expense of the country’s relations with other important partners. As practice has shown, if Uzbekistan is moving closer to the US, it automatically moves away from Russia and vice versa. That, at least, has been the case in recent times whenever Tashkent has begun active cooperation with the United States. Currently, we are witnessingyet another phase of fairly close cooperation between Tashkent and Washington. What is the reason for this present phase of strengthening ties and how long-term and stable will US- Uzbek relations prove to be? This article analyses these factors and future prospects for US-Uzbek relations. The Dynamics of the US-Uzbekistan relations Changing geostrategy Until recently, US strategy in Central Asia did not sufficiently take into account the interests of the region’s countries themselves. Central Asia, for the United States, has always been an instrument through which Washington sought to implement plans in the broader Eurasian region. US plans in Central Asia were mainly aimed at countering the plans of other external powers in the region. This was embodied in the creation of almost all US foreign policy programs in Central Asia, including the “Greater Central Asia” and the “New Silk Road” programs, which overwhelmingly focussed on the use of the region to solve strategic US objectives in Afghanistan while reducing Russian and Chinese influence. But the attempt to integrate Afghanistan with Central Asian countries was perceived negatively, because in the eyes of Central Asian governments Afghanistan still remains a source of threats, chiefly terrorism and drug trafficking. From this point of view, the new approach promoted by Washington in the form of the “C5 + 1” represents a modification. Attempts to integrate Afghanistan into the region have been reduced to a minimum, and Afghanistan is presented only as a link for potential transport and infrastructure projects. This makes “C5 + 1” — another policy directed against Russia and China — more attractive in the eyes of the Central Asian countries, where conditions have changed in recent times. Against the background of events in Ukraine and economic pressure from China,the Central Asian republics now see the United States as the strongest balancing force that is capable of alleviating pressure from both China and Russia. This means US plans are more likely to find support in the region.There is every reason to believe that the main focus of “C5 + 1” is Uzbekistan. Tashkent represents to Washington a potential partner in confronting China and Russia, with a powerful protest potential that can be harnessed as and when necessary. The focus of the new US strategy on Uzbekistan is also a consequence of the fact that the foreign policy orientation of all other countries in the region is towards Russia. The closure of the US military base in Kyrgyzstan and Bishkek’s entry into the Eurasian Economic Union has alienated the United States. Elections to the parliament in Kyrgyzstan last autumn once again showed how effective the Kremlin’s leverage in this country is, with none of the six parties entering the parliament stating opposition towards the Kremlin. There is reason to believe that in the near future Tajikistan will also join the Eurasian Economic Union. Kazakhstan has always been and remains the key partner for Russia in the region. That leaves only Uzbekistan and officially neutral Turkmenistan. In such a situation, it seems that The Dynamics of the US-Uzbekistan relations the United States has chosen a strategy of intensified rapprochement with Tashkent. Tashkent’s reciprocity In its turn, Uzbekistan’s government sees in the United States an alternative to Russian influence and Tashkent would also like to receive new technologies from Washington, investment and, above all, a strengthening of its own military potential. Judging by the number of high-level meetings and negotiations between politicians of Uzbekistan and the United States, Tashkent has not hidden its desire to get closer to the West. Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov appears to be the most important lobbyist in terms of deepening Uzbek-American dialogue and has been heavily involved in the “C5 + 1” initiative. Kamilov was moreover important in helping to achieve an Uzbek-American rapprochement after the cooling of relations that followed the 2005 Andijan events. Another indicator of Uzbekistan’s openness to improving ties with the US and the West was German Foreign Minister Steinmeier’s trip to Uzbekistan, during which plans for further cooperation within the military sector were discussed. Peak warming Tashkent and Washington had moved away sharply from one another in 2005, immediately after events in Andijan, and there appeared to be little space for reconciliation. As Western media outlets probed the events, Uzbekistan began to persecute international non- governmental organizations. The influential Soros Foundation headquartered in New York was expelled from the country in 2004, for instance. But under refreshed circumstances Tashkent and Washington were once more able to find common ground. And, 10 years on from Andijan, it can be said that relations between the two countries have reached a new level. The visit of US Secretary of State John Kerry, who was able to gather the foreign ministers of the five Central Asian countries in Samarkand, signified the peak of warming in US-Uzbek relations. It was here that the “P5+1” mechanism for Central Asian-American cooperation came into being. Almost immediately afterwards, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also visited to Uzbekistan. Since then, media reports suggest blossoming relations, with Uzbek-US talks and meetings at different levels involving the participation of politicians, businessmen and public figures The Dynamics of the US-Uzbekistan relations from the two countries. In particular, from December 2015 through April 2016 the quantity of such meetings increased dramatically. In January, for instance Washington held Uzbek- US political consultations, during which Foreign Minister Komilov held talks with US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Nisha Biswal. Subsequently there were talks between Uzbekistan and the United States on defense and security in which First Deputy Minister of Defence of Uzbekistan Shavkat Normatov represented the Uzbek side. In March and April 2016 a US delegation headed by US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Labour Eric Biel, as well as US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Daniel Rosenblum visited Tashkent. The primary areas of bilateral cooperation on the agenda were military cooperation, investment and contracts in science and technological development. United by matters of security Unsolved problems in neighboring Afghanistan give Tashkent reason to prioritize security issues. Uzbekistan accepted the withdrawal of ISAF forces from Afghanistan with great reluctance. For one, the withdrawal increases the likelihood of terrorist groups with scores to settle with Uzbekistan growing more active. But an even greater threat is now presented by the so-called “returnees” – young people who have gone to fight in hot spots such as Iraq and Syria. According to experts, the bulk of the extremist contingent from Central Asia in groups such as ISIS and IMU hails from the Fergana Valley. Moreover, Uzbekistan’s government has claimed to have suffered attacks and coup attempts at the hands of organized terrorist groups.[1] With the ISIS terrorist network under greater military threat, jeopardizing funding for the extremists, many of the fighters are returning to their native land. This problem, coupled with worsening water, energy and border problems in the region, has forced the Uzbek authorities to seriously upgrade its military-technical capabilities, with the United States happy to contribute to this strategic goal. According to recent reports Tashkent has already reformed its army along Western lines, replacing uniforms and equipment. These changes began following the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan. The US has cooperated closely with the Uzbek military through its regional NATO office in Tashkent, open since 2013. The office’s activities are aimed at strengthening NATO’s cooperation with the Central Asian countries, particularly with Tashkent. The results of cooperation between Uzbekistan and the United States are there for all to The Dynamics of the US-Uzbekistan relations see. In 2015, Uzbekistan received the lion’s share of US military assistance allocated to Central Asian countries. Central Asia specialist A.Shustov noted that in August last year, the Pentagon concluded a free supply agreement consisting of 328 modern armored vehicles (308 armored M-ATV vehicles and 20 Armoured Recovery Vehicles).

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