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Methods of Assessing Risks 2017, Vol. 62 No. 1 ApproachThe Navy and Marine Corps Aviation Safety Magazine Methods of Assessing Risks The Trouble With Increasing Performance Approach CONTENTS The Navy & Marine Corps Aviation Safety Magazine 2017 Volume 62, No. 1 RDML W. Scott Dillon, Commander, Naval Safety Center CAPT John Sipes, Deputy Commander CMDCM(SW/AW/IW) James Stuart, Command Master Chief Naval Safety Center (757) 444-3520 (DSN 564) 6 Publications Fax (757) 444-6791 Report a Mishap (757) 444-2929 (DSN 564) Multimedia Division Head Evelyn Odango [email protected] Ext. 7220 Approach Staff Nika Glover, Editor [email protected] Ext. 7257 Aviation Safety Programs Editorial Board Kimball Thompson, Deputy Director [email protected] Ext. 7226 CAPT William Murphy, Aircraft Operations [email protected] Ext. 7203 All Analyst [email protected] Ext. 7811 8 Mishaps cost time and resources. They take our Sailors, Marines and civilian employees away from their units and workplaces and put them in hospitals, wheelchairs and coffins. Mishaps ruin equipment and weapons. They diminish 10 our readiness. This magazine’s goal is to help make sure that personnel can devote their time and energy to the mission. We believe there is only one way to do any task: the way that follows the rules and takes precautions against hazards. Approach (ISSN 1094-0405) and (ISSN 1094-0405X online) is published quarterly by Commander, Naval Safety Center, 375 A Street Norfolk, VA 23511-4399, and is an authorized publication for members of the Department of Defense. Contents are not necessarily the official views of, or endorsed by, the U.S. Government, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Navy. Photos and artwork are representative and do not necessarily show the people or equipment discussed. We reserve the right to edit all manuscripts. Reference to commercial products does not imply Navy endorsement. Unless otherwise stated, material in this magazine may be reprinted without permission; please credit the magazine and author. Approach is available for sale by the Superintendent of Documents, P.O. Box 979050, St Louis, MO 63197- 9000, or online at: bookstore.gpo.gov. Telephone credit card orders can be made 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern time at (866) 512-1800.Periodicals postage paid at Norfolk, Va., and additional mailing office. Postmaster: Send address changes to Approach, Code 022, Naval Safety Center, 375 A Street, Norfolk, VA 23511-4399. Send article submissions, distribution requests, comments or questions to the address above or email to: [email protected]. STATEMENT OF OWNERSHIP, MANAGEMENT AND CIRCU- LATION: (Required by 39 U.S.C 3685) 1. Title of Publication: Approach magazine. 2. Publication No: ISSN 1094-0405. 3. Date of Filing October 17, 2017. 4. Frequency of issue: Quarterly. 5. No. of issues published annually: four. 6. Annual subscription 16 price $26. 7. Complete mailing address of known office of pub- lication: 375 A Street, Norfolk, VA. 8. Complete mailing address of headquarters of general business offices of the publisher: Pages Same as No. 4. 9. Full Names and complete mailing address of publisher, editor, and managing editor: Publisher: Naval Safety 4.Quantitative Risk Assessment by Maj. Curtis Center, Editor, Nika Glover, Managing Editor, Evelyn Odango Alexander — all at 375 A Street Norfolk, VA 23511. 10. Owner: United States Navy , 1530 Gilbert St #2000, Norfolk, VA 23511. 11. 6. Always Have a Way Out by LT Robert Gwinn Known Bondholders, Mortgagees, and Other Security Holders Owning or Holding 1 Percent or More of Total Amount of Bonds, 8. The Importance of Preflights by LT Kristen Johnston Mortgages, or Other Securities: None. 12. Tax Status: Has not 10. Windshears in the Navy’s Heavy by LT Mike Kelly changed during preceding 12 months. 13: Publication title: See No. 1. 14. Issue Date for Circulation Date: November 2017. 15: 16.Falling Off an Aircraft by AN John Hampton Extent and Nature of Circulation. 15A. Total No. copies printed: 14,061. 15B. Paid by Circulation: None. 15C. Total Paid by Dis- On the cover: 17. Trust Without Verify by AM2 Anthony Jackson Gunner’s Mate 2nd Class James Stavlo, tribution: None. 15D. Free or Nominal Rate Distribution: 14,061. from Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and Sonar 18. Bravo Zulu 15E. Total Free or Nominal Rate Distribution: Same as 15D. Technician (Surface) 3rd Class Lance 15F. Total Distribution: 4,750. 15G. Copies not Distributed: 250. Gacek, from Chicago, are recovered while 15H. Total 5,000. 15I. Percent Paid: None. 16. Electronic Copy conducting search and rescue training Circulation: 16A. Paid Electronic Copies: None. 16B. Total Paid aboard the guided-missile cruiser USS San CONNECT WITH US Print Copies + Paid Electronic Copies: None. 16C. Total Print Jacinto (CG 56) during Hurricane Irma relief Distribution + Paid Electronic Copies: 5,000. 16D. Percent Paid: efforts. (Photo by Mass Communication None. I certify that all information furnished on this statement of Specialist 1st Class Josue Escobosa) ownership is true and complete. — Nika Glover 2 Approach FROM THE EDITOR I recently received a phone call from Dr. James Linville, will go back to being a standalone issue twice a year and the first flight surgeon assigned to work with the Blue Sea&Shore magazine will be in print as well. Angels. He wanted to know if we’d ever begin printing If you’d like to become a contributing writer please read physical copies of Approach again. He said he spent many the instructions below and submit your article. If you’re years reading the magazine and enjoyed learning about not currently a subscriber and would like to become one, what the aviation community has been up to since he left please fill out the form on page 23 and return it to us. the service. Dr. Linville isn’t the only one I’ve spoken to In the meantime, please enjoy this issue and take on the issue. I’ve received many calls and emails from so note of the changes we’ve made to our Bravo Zulu sec- many of the Approach audience as well as pilots that I met tion. Submissions to the magazine are always needed and at the Naval Helicopter Association this past May. They appreciated. If you’d like to be added to our distribution all have the same question. Will Approach come back to list please mail or email your request to SAFE-Approach@ print? navy.mil or [email protected]. I’m happy to announce the great news, that Approach is back in print thanks to the men and women who voiced their desire to have the magazine as a print and digital product. Your concerns did not fall on deaf ears. We at the Approach staff had been trying to come up with ideas on how to reach our audience that didn’t have the ability to get the magazine digitally. The only thing that made sense Editor, Approach and Mech was to bring the magazine back into print format. Naval Safety Center Not only is Approach back in print, but Mech magazine WRITERS WANTED Interested in writing for Approach-Mech? Please use the 3. When you email your article, please use the author’s following guidelines when submitting articles. name as the filename. Give us the author’s full name and a 1. If you have already written your article and are famil- mailing address so we can send a certificate of appreciation iar with our magazines, simply e-mail it to one of the email and a copy of the issue that the article will appear in. addresses below: Approach: [email protected] Our surveys consistently show that readers like articles Mech: [email protected] written by their peers, and they like to read about true-life 2. If you aren’t familiar with our magazines, here’s more events and experiences. Your effort keeps others from having detailed information:send in Microsoft Word document format. to learn the hard way therefore, we want your letters, feed- FONT: Courier New back, and comments. SPACING: Double spaced (1 space after period) We want honest appraisals and realistic solutions. Our FONT SIZE: 11 points staff is always open to new ideas, so don’t be afraid to try NECESSARY INFO: Include a proposed headline, the full something different. We also want your input. Send your let- byline of the author (rank, first, and last name), and the unit ters, opinions, viewpoints, and comments to safe-mediafdbk@ the author is with. navy.mil. Bravo Zulu Submission Guidelines Include a smooth narrative of the event, names and ranks crew with the nominee(s) identified in the photo. Photos must of the nominees, and endorsements from the command safety be high-res (300 dpi), saved as a JPG. A phone number officer and CO. should also be included. Approach and Mech BZs must include endorsements from We cannot work the BZ until we have all these “pieces.” squadron CO and appropriate wing or MAG CO. Forgetting the chops delays processing the nomination and its Send an action photo of the candidate(s) on the job or publication. Vol. 62, No. 1 3 Approach QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT BY MAJ CURTIS ALEXANDER, VMMT-204 n Nov. 21, 1970, a joint United States Air Force and United States Army mission launched to rescue 61 prisoners of war in Son Tây, North Vietnam. The plan was extremely risky, involv- O ing an assault on a fortified enemy position, deliberately crash landing a helicopter inside the enemy camp, and no feasible rescue option in the event of failure. What did the flight risk assessment for the Son Tây raid flying with coalition partners.
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