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The Great Boom in Apartment Presales

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The Great Boom in Apartment Presales [Korea] January 8, 2021 Construction (Overweight/Maintain) The great boom in apartment presales Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Kwangsoo Lee [email protected] Apartment presales increasing Nationwide a partment presales to increase 21% YoY in 2021 In 2021, we forecast regular apartment presale volume to expand 21% YoY to 270,000 units. For the Seoul capital area (including Gyeonggi and Incheon), we anticipate presale volume to reach 140,000 units, the highest level since 2016. The private apartment presale market should receive a further boost from applications for apartments in third-phase “new town” developments, which are slated to begin in 2H21. Presale market boom Record -high initial presale ratios and rising presale prices In 3Q20, initial presale ratios (private apartment projects) hit all-time highs: 96.4% nationwide and 99% in Gyeonggi. In October, the average presale price for apartments nationwide climbed 7% YoY to W3.85mn/m2. High initial presale ratios and rising prices are key triggers for private builders’ presale business expansion. Opportunities and risks Presale volume growth to support earnings improvements ; uncertainties over excessive business expansion remain In 2021, large builders (Hyundai E&C, Daelim Industrial, GS E&C, Daewoo E&C, and HDC Hyundai Development) are targeting apartment presale volume of 130,000 units, up 25% from their actual presale volume in 2020. If housing projects proceed smoothly, housing revenue could double within three years. If profit growth continues on the back of robust housing revenue, we expect to see a rise in corporate value (+70%). We reiterate our Overweight call on the construction sector. Amid the current housing market boom, builders could seek aggressive business expansion (including in-house projects) and compete to win orders, leading to margin deterioration. New apartment sales at record levels (initial presale ratios for private apartment projects) (%) 105 Nationwide Gyeonggi 100 97 96 95 92 90 88 87 88 87 86 87 86 85 84 84 83 82 82 80 81 79 75 75 72 70 71 65 60 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 2Q20 Source: Korea Housing & Urban Guarantee Corporation, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. January 8, 2021 Construction I. Robust presales momentum Nationwide apartment presales to increase 21% YoY in 2021 In 2021, we forecast regular apartment presale volume to expand 21% YoY to 270,000 units. Inclusive of public housing and reconstruction/redevelopment projects, the presale figure is likely to reach 415,000 units, the highest level since 2016 and up 26% from the recent 10-year average of 330,000 units. Meanwhile, when factoring in approximately 60,000 units in third- phase new towns (for which presale applications are set to begin in 2H21), regular presale volume is likely to surpass 330,000 units, the second-highest level since 2000. Figure 1. Regular apartment presale volume (nationwide); avg. of 200,000 units presold annually over the past 20 years ('000 units) 400 Regular apartment 350 presale volume to expand to 300 270,000 units 250 200 150 100 50 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21F Source: Real Estate 114, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Presale forecasts: 18,000 units in Seoul, 85,000 units in Gyeonggi, and 37,000 units in Incheon In 2021, we forecast regular apartment presale volume in Seoul to reach 18,000 units, surpassing the recent 10-year average of 14,000 units. Reconstruction/redevelopment projects are likely to contribute to presale growth, with projects that had been delayed set to kick off. For the Seoul capital area (including Gyeonggi and Incheon), we anticipate presale volume to reach 140,000 units, the highest level since 2016. Figure 2. Apartment presale volume (Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon combined) ('000 units) 190 151 140 127 122 112 111 103 104 97 92 96 84 80 79 78 68 61 56 53 53 48 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21F Source: Real Estate 114, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 January 8, 2021 Construction Presale market boom and third-phase new towns Presale volume is increasing amid the market boom, as evidenced by record-high initial presale ratios. As of 3Q20, initial presale ratios (based on private apartment projects; presale ratios in the first three to six months) stood at 96.4% nationwide and 99% in Gyeonggi. Initial presale ratios are the strongest indicator of presale market conditions. Figure 3. Initial presale ratios (private apartment projects) (%) 105 Nationwide Gyeonggi 100 97 96 95 92 90 88 87 88 87 86 87 86 85 84 84 83 82 82 80 81 79 75 75 72 70 71 65 60 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 1Q18 3Q18 1Q19 3Q19 2Q20 Source: Korea Housing & Urban Guarantee Corporation, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Presale prices are also rising steadily despite a slew of regulations (including the presale price cap), reaching W3.85mn/m2 (based on an area of 60-85m2) as of October. Price increases are a key trigger for private builders’ presale business expansion. Figure 4. Presale price trends (private apartment projects) (60-85m 2, W'000/ ㎡) 5,000 Nationwide Gyeonggi 4,500 4,000 3,500 Price growth is a key trigger for private builders’ presale business 3,000 expansion 2,500 2,000 10/15 1/17 4/18 7/19 10/20 Source: Korea Housing & Urban Guarantee Corporation, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 January 8, 2021 Construction In July, presale applications are scheduled to start for apartments in third-phase new towns (e.g., Wangsuk [Namyangju], Gyosan [Hanam], and Gyeyang [Incheon]) and other cities (e.g., Seongnam and Gwacheon); applications will be open for approximately 30,000 units in 2H21 and another 30,000 units in 1H22. With prices set at relatively low levels, we expect the new town projects to provide a short-term boost to the private apartment presale market. Figure 5. Presale apartment map Source: MOLIT, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 1. Presale application plan/status (third-phase new towns and other cities) (Units) No. Region District Presale volume No. Region District Presale volume Wangsuk 1 Gyeonggi 6,400 18 Seoul Gangseo 300 (Namyangju ) Changneung 2 Gyeonggi 4,100 19 Gyeonggi (Hanam) Wirye 300 (Goyang ) 3 Gyeonggi Gyosan (Hanam) 3,600 20 Seoul Magok 200 Yongjin Platform 4 Gyeonggi 3,300 21 Seoul Eunpyeong 100 City Yongsan 5 Gyeonggi Daejang (Bucheon) 3,000 22 Seoul 3,000 Maintenance Depot Yangjeong Station Bokjeong 1, 2 6 Gyeonggi 2,800 23 Gyeonggi 1,000 area (Namyangju ) (Seongnam ) 7 Gyeonggi Geomo (Siheung) 2,700 24 Gyeoggi Hajung (Siheung) 1,000 8 Gyeonggi Gyeyang (Incheon) 2,600 25 Gyeonggi Ujeong (Uijeongbu) 1,000 Wangsuk 2 9 Gyeonggi 2,500 26 Gyeonggi Daeyami (Gunpo) 1,000 (Namyangju ) Jinjeob 2 Naksaeng 10 Gyeonggi 2,300 27 Gyeonggi 800 (Namyangju ) (Seongnam ) 11 Incheon Jangsang (Ansan) 2,200 28 Gyeonggi Tanhyeon (Goyang) 600 Gwacheon Gwanyang 12 Gyeonggi 1,800 29 Gyeonggi 400 (Gwacheon) (Anyang ) Indeogwon 13 Gyeonggi Singil 2 (Ansan) 1,400 30 Gyeonggi 300 (Anyang ) Hakon Cheonggye 2 14 Gyeonggi 1,100 31 Gyeonggi 300 (Gwangmyeong ) (Uiwang ) Station Area Namtaeryeong 15 Incheon 1,000 32 Seoul 300 (Geomam ) Military Base Noryangjin Military 16 Gyeonggi Yeokgok (Bucheon) 800 33 Seoul 200 Base Sinchon 17 Seoul Gangil (Godeok) 500 34 Gyeonggi 200 (Seongnam ) 35 Gyeonggi Maegok (Anyang) 200 Source : MOLIT , Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 January 8, 2021 Construction As third-phase new town projects gain traction, we expect domestic builders to accelerate and scale up their presale operations. Notably, sale prices are typically higher for private apartment projects than for public housing projects (due to higher land prices). As such, the expansion of public housing projects could lead to a decline in private apartment presale volume. Given this, builders are likely to begin their presale operations before the start of presales for the aforementioned public projects. For private projects with less commercial potential, presales could proceed at an even faster pace. Indeed, this is evident in the 2021 presale plans for domestic private housing projects. Within Gyeonggi, we note that Yongin, Gwangju, Uijeongbu, and Paju (cities where private housing projects have been pushed back due to limited commercial appeal), as well as Gapyeong, Pocheon, and Yeoncheon (areas with the lowest commercial potential), account for a higher share of planned regular presale volume in 2021 compared to the past three-year average. This suggests good prospects for overall presale volume growth in 2021. Figure 6. Gyeonggi: Regular presale volume breakdown by city (2021F vs. 2018-20 average) Gunpo Guri Most recent 3 years 2021 Anseong Dongducheon Yeoju Yeoncheon Gimpo Hanam Namyangju Gwacheon Bucheon Gapyeong Pocheon Ansan Siheung Seongnam Gwangmyeong Yangpyeong Pyeongtaek Goyang Anyang Uiwang Icheon Osan Hwaseong Suwon Yangju Paju Uijeongbu Gwangju Yongin 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Source: Real Estate 114, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5 January 8, 2021 Construction II. Presale volume growth to support earnings improvements Large builders’ presale volume to increase 25% in 2021 In 2021, large builders (Hyundai E&C, Daelim Industrial, GS E&C, Daewoo E&C, and HDC Hyundai Development) are targeting apartment presale volume of 130,000 units, up 25% from their actual presale volume in 2020. This would mark the second consecutive year of YoY growth (vs.
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