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Future Projection of Flood Inundation Considering Land-Use Changes And Hydrological Research Letters 11(2), 99–105 (2017) Published online in J-STAGE (www.jstage.jst.go.jp/browse/hrl). DOI: 10.3178/hrl.11.99 Future projection of flood inundation considering land-use changes and land subsidence in Jakarta, Indonesia Idham Riyando Moe1, Shuichi Kure2, Nurul Fajar Januriyadi3, Mohammad Farid4, Keiko Udo5, So Kazama1 and Shunichi Koshimura5 1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tohoku University, Japan 2Department of Environmental Engineering, Toyama Prefectural University, Japan 3Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Tohoku University, Japan 4Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology, Indonesia 5International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Japan Abstract: al. (2011) reported that groundwater extraction in the urbanized area has resulted in significant land subsidence in Jakarta is facing several issues related to flooding, includ- Jakarta. They assessed the state of land subsidence in the ing land subsidence in the coastal area and rapid land-use/ city and evaluated the relationship between the flooded cover changes in the upstream area. In this study, we ana- areas and areas affected by land subsidence, concluding lyzed the effects of future changes in land use and land sub- that the impact on land subsidence has led to the expansion sidence using a rainfall-runoff and flood inundation model. of flood-prone areas in Jakarta. Budiyono et al. (2016) sug- The future land-use scenarios were projected based on the gested that land subsidence would be the greatest factor SLEUTH model, and land subsidence was projected based driving increases in the extent of future flood risk in on an extrapolation of the current state in Jakarta. Jakarta. Moreover, Takagi et al. (2016) concluded that land Based on this analysis, land-use changes and land subsi- subsidence would be the main driver of coastal floods in dence contributed to an increase in flood inundation vol- the north coastal area of Jakarta by projecting the sea level ume of 36.8% from 2013 to 2050. Moreover, the effects of rise under future climate change and land subsidence condi- land-use changes on flood inundation in Jakarta were much tions. greater than those of land subsidence. The government’s Land subsidence and land-use changes are ongoing, and current target to stop land subsidence by 2020 would cause significant changes are expected to continue in the future a 7.7% decrease in the flood inundation volume by 2050. (Moe et al., 2016b). Land subsidence in Jakarta exhibits Furthermore, controlling and regulating land-use/cover spatial and temporal variations. From 1982–2010, rates changes by 2020 would cause a 10.9% decrease in the were about 1–15 cm year–1, although a few locations had flood inundation volume by 2050. From these results, we subsidence rates of up to 20–28 cm year–1 (Abidin et al., conclude that a flood mitigation plan should be made not 2011). However, to the best of our knowledge, no studies only for land subsidence, but also for land-use changes. have examined future trends in flooding with regard to both land-use changes and land subsidence in Jakarta. Therefore, KEYWORDS Jakarta; flood inundation simulation; land it was important to examine how future changes resulting subsidence; land-use changes from continuous land subsidence and land-use/cover changes will affect flooding in Jakarta, and to quantify INTRODUCTION these effects to help mitigate future floods. The main objec- tive of this study was to project flood inundation in Jakarta by considering future land-use changes and land subsi- Jakarta faces various infrastructural, social, and water- dence. related problems, such as land subsidence in coastal areas and rapid land-use/cover changes in the upstream region, STUDY AREA which have resulted in an increase in the size of the area at risk of flooding. The Indonesian economy has grown in the past three decades, leading to new and expanding urbanized Jakarta, officially known as the Special Capital Region areas in Jakarta and its surrounding areas. Using a flood of Jakarta, is located in the northwest part of Java Island, inundation model for Jakarta and the Ciliwung River basin, Indonesia. The main and longest river in Jakarta is the Farid et al. (2011) and Moe et al. (2016a) noted that flood Ciliwung River, which passes through the central part of the inundation area and volume increased with increases in the city from an upstream mountainous region. The target area urbanized area. selected for this study included Jakarta and the Ciliwung In addition to problems stemming from urbanization, River basin, covering a total area of 1,346.6 km2 (Figure 1). land subsidence in Jakarta is another major issue. Abidin et Received 20 February, 2017 Correspondence to: Idham Moe, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi 980-0845, Japan. E-mail: Accepted 7 April, 2017 [email protected] Published online 28 April, 2017 © The Author(s) 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. —99— I.R. MOE ET AL. Figure 1. Study area and land-use/cover maps from 1983 to 2050 Jakarta has many infrastructure problems, including traf- used this model to compute flood inundation in Jakarta fic jams and floods, caused by rapid economic growth and because it was previously applied to the study area and cali- urbanization. Bricker et al. (2014) noted the reduced brated (Moe et al., 2016a, b), and the model is applicable capacity of the drainage system due to trash clogging flood- not only to mountainous regions, but also highly urbanized gates, which was one of the factors behind the 2013 flood. areas. Details of the model, including its parameters and In addition, Kure et al. (2014) emphasized that a lack of datasets, are provided in Text S1. capacity in rivers is a factor that can worsen flooding. As The flood inundation model was applied to the flood explained above, urbanization has contributed to increased event in January 2013, which caused severe damage in flood damage (Farid et al., 2011; Moe et al., 2016a) and Jakarta. In this study, cells in the riverbanks were omitted land subsidence is a serious problem that causes urban from any flow calculations in the two-dimensional model to flooding in lowland areas (Budiyono et al., 2016). prevent inundated water from flowing cross the riverbanks into other rivers. The inundation flows generally do not METHODOLOGY cross into other rivers due to high riverbanks in the urban- ized target area. However, previous studies did not take this Flood inundation model step, and some discrepancies between simulated and observed flood inundation areas were found in previous We applied a physically based rainfall-runoff and flood results (Moe et al., 2016a, b). Figure 2 shows the observed inundation model (Kure and Yamada, 2004; Kure et al., and simulated inundation areas. The observed flooded area 2008) to simulate flood inundation scenarios in Jakarta for data were provided by the Badan Penanggulangan Bencana historical and future periods. The model consisted of a Daerah (BPBD; Jakarta Province Regional Disaster Man- rainfall-runoff module for each sub-basin, a one- agement Agency). The simulated inundation area in the dimensional hydrodynamic module for the river networks, target area matched the observed area reasonably well. and a two-dimensional flood inundation module for the However, there were discrepancies between the reported floodplains. The computed runoffs from each sub-basin and simulated inundation areas, especially in the north- were used for lateral inflows of the hydrodynamic module. central and northeast areas. This may have been caused by The hydrodynamic module and the flood inundation mod- the numerous local fish ponds located in these areas. The ule were laterally linked based on a weir equation for simu- local fish ponds are initially filled with water but this initial lating overflow from a river channel onto a flood plain. We water was not captured by the land-use map used in this —100— FUTURE PROJECTION OF FLOOD INUNDATION Figure 2. Comparison of the simulated (left) and observed (right) inundation areas study, leading to the underestimation of the flood inunda- Table I. Land-use types (%) for historical and future periods tion simulation of this study. Land-Use Types [%] for Historical Period Historical and future land subsidence Year Urban Crop Land Paddy Field Forest Water Historical and future land subsidences were reconstruct- 1983 33.0 46.1 8.8 11.0 1.2 ed and projected, respectively (Moe et al., 2016b), to eval- uate the effect of land subsidence on flooding. Jakarta 1996 50.4 37.8 7.0 3.9 0.9 Coastal Defense Strategy (2011) measured land subsidence 2002 64.0 24.2 3.3 2.8 5.7 in Jakarta using a GPS, leveling surveys, and interferomet- Land-Use Types [%] for Future Period ric synthetic aperture radar technology, and reported a total land subsidence of up to ~4.0 m in the lowland areas from Year Urban Bare Soil Agriculture Forest Water 1974 to 2010. Moe et al. (2016b) extracted this accumulat- 2020 79.2 2.0 6.2 12.2 0.4 ed land subsidence data at each grid point and constructed 2030 89.7 0.6 2.8 6.7 0.3 a spatially interpolated land subsidence accumulation map of Jakarta. Then, from the 2009 base elevation data and the 2040 92.3 0.4 1.9 5.2 0.3 computed land subsidence rates at each grid, past and 2050 93.2 0.3 1.7 4.5 0.2 future land subsidence scenarios were reconstructed and projected using linear extrapolation.
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