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Black Candidates and Black Turnout: a Study of Viability in Louisiana Mayoral Elections

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Black Candidates and Black Turnout: a Study of Viability in Louisiana Mayoral Elections Black Candidates and Black Turnout: A Study of Viability in Louisiana Mayoral Elections Luke J. Keele, Georgetown University Paru R. Shah, University of Wisconsin Ismail White, George Washington University Kristine Kay, University of California, Berkeley What effect does a candidate’s race have on coracial voter turnout? Recent studies have found mixed results, largely because it is difficult to separate the effect of candidate race from other factors that drive voter turnout. We argue that viability is a key element in the theory of turnout among coracial voters that has been overlooked in the extant literature. We develop a broad-based concept of candidate viability that is dependent on both the candidate and the electoral en- vironment. To test this hypothesis, we make use of the unique runoff structure of mayoral elections in the state of Louisiana between 1988 and 2011. We argue that runoff elections heighten viability in ways rarely seen in most elections. We find that while there is an effect of candidate race on black turnout in general elections, the effect is much more robust in runoff elections. n Tuesday, November 7, 2006, Cedric Glover was cades as a kind of anecdotally substantiated fact about black elected the first African American mayor of Shreve- political behavior. Oport, Louisiana. Glover’s election came as a surprise The question of how minority candidates influence minor- to many who doubted he could gather enough support to win ity political participation continues to be of deep political sig- in a southern city where in years past blacks had attempted nificance. One of the intended goals of the 1965 Voting Rights but failed to gain control of city hall. Glover’s victory was Act (VRA) was, upon lifting many of the long-standing im- ultimately attributed to his campaign’s ability to exploit the ra- pediments to voting, that racial minorities would then be free to cial politics of Shreveport through the mobilization of African elect candidates that they believe would best represent their American voters. The day after the election the local news- interests. For groups such as African Americans, Latinos, and paper, the Shreveport Times surmised that Glover’s victory was Asian Americans, this includes the election of coracial and likely due, at least in part, to “several high-profile get-out-the- coethnic candidates. If minority candidates increase turnout vote initiatives targeting black voters in the last week” that among coracial voters, the recruitment of minority candidates “energized Glover’s core voter base.” Similarly, one local com- can serve as way to increase minority political participation. If mentator noted that “Cedric did a stupendous job of turn- minority voters do not turn out for coracial candidates, then out. Black turnout is way up from the primary, much other avenues for increasing minority political participation closer to proportion” (Mahfoufi, November 8, 2006, p1a). will need to be found. The election of Shreveport’s first African American mayor Here we argue that missing from much prior work is at- illustrates a common explanation for black electoral success: tention to the role that candidate viability plays in determining that black candidates succeed by mobilizing black voters. This whether minority voters will turn out when there are coracial belief, well known among political pundits, has existed for de- candidates on the ballot. Building on previous research that Luke J. Keele ([email protected]) is associate professor at the McCourt School of Public Policy and Department of Government, Georgetown University, Washington, DC 20057. Paru R. Shah ([email protected]) is associate professor at the Department of Political Science, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53201. Ismail White ([email protected]) is associate professor at the Department of Political Science, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052. Kristine Kay is a graduate student at the Department of Political Science, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720. Data and supporting materials necessary to reproduce the numerical results in the article are available in the JOP Dataverse (https://dataverse.harvard.edu /dataverse/jop). An online appendix with supplementary material is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/690302. The Journal of Politics, volume 79, number 3. Published online April 21, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/690302 q 2017 by the Southern Political Science Association. All rights reserved. 0022-3816/2017/7903-0003$10.00 780 Volume 79 Number 3 July 2017 / 781 examines the correlation between viability and vote choice examine redistricting in two different districts in North Caro- (Manzano and Sanchez 2010; Tate 2003), in this article we seek lina, matching voters who moved into a majority-black district to better isolate the role of viability in coracial turnout by fo- to those that did not. Adjusting for selection, they find, again, cusing on runoff elections. Utilizing a unique data set of may- that majority-minority districts have little to no effect on the oral elections in Louisiana spanning more than two decades turnout of black voters. As such, the literature currently stands (1988–2011), we capitalize on Louisiana’s unique electoral with a set of fairly mixed results in terms of whether turnout system that often triggers runoff elections. We find support is higher among minority voters when a coracial candidate is for our hypothesis that candidate viability is a strong pre- on the ballot. dictor of voter turnout. Specifically, in general elections, the However, the extant literature has identified two key cor- effect of black candidates on black voter turnout is weak. In relates for African American turnout that will be important runoff elections, however, the effects of a black candidate are observed confounders. The first factor, specific to mayoral much stronger, suggesting the relationship between candi- elections, is electoral institutions. Two institutions in particu- date race and coracial voter turnout to be more nuanced than lar—the city manager form of government and nonpartisan earlier studies argue. We conclude with implications of our elections—have been viewed as critical determinants of low research for African American participation more generally. voter minority turnout (Hajnal and Lewis 2003). In addition, a number of scholars have found that off-cycle elections (i.e., not BLACK VOTER TURNOUT at the same time as state and federal elections) reduce turnout Over the last 25 years, a great deal of research has been de- (Anzia 2011; Hajnal and Trounstine 2005). As Brown-Dean voted to understanding the effect that minority candidates et al. (2015) recently concluded, as overall turnout declines in have on minority electoral behavior. This work has been local elections, the electorate may become less representative of inspired in part by a need to more fully comprehend the the racial diversity of the community as a whole. A second key impact of the 1964 VRA and its subsequent amendments on confounder is the size of the minority population. As Leighley the electoral behavior of minority citizens. To that end, a (2001, 8) argues: “For minority individuals, the potential ben- number of scholars have sought to empirically test the link- efits of participating are greater as the racial/ethnic group in- age between the presence of a minority candidate running creases in size [or becomes more pivotal] because the group for office and the turnout behavior of minority voters within consequently enjoys a higher probability of being successful in that district (Barreto, Segura, and Woods 2004; Brace et al. its political efforts.” More recently, Fraga (2016b) corroborates 1995; Gay 2001; Griffin and Keane 2006; Tate 1991, 2003; this argument, concluding from an analysis of congressional Voss and Lublin 2001; Washington 2006; Whitby 2007). primary and general elections that African American (and La- Several studies have found a clear correlation between the tino) turnout is greater when they comprise a larger propor- race of the candidate and coracial turnout (Barreto et al. tion of the electorate, regardless of the race of the candidate. 2004; Bobo and Gilliam 1990; Voss and Lublin 2001; Wash- ington 2006). The dominant structural explanation for this VIABILITY AND CORACIAL TURNOUT correlation is that when minorities witness coracial group We argue that candidate viability is a key missing element in members pursuing political office, they have a heightened the theory of coracial turnout. Theories of candidate viability sense of political empowerment (Barreto et al. 2004; Bobo and voting are well established (Abramowitz 1989) but have and Gilliam 1990; Browning, Marshall, and Tabb 1984; Gil- rarely been applied to studies of minority candidates. We argue liam and Kaufman 1998; Leighley 2001). Some scholars have that minority voters will be more likely to turnout when the found strong support for the empowerment theory among coracial candidate is perceived to be viable. Next, we outline black and Latino voters (Barreto et al. 2004; Bobo and Gil- the role that viability plays in minority turnout. liam 1990; Browning et al. 1984; Gilliam 1996; Gilliam and First, following others, we define viability as a property Kaufman 1998; Leighley 2001; Washington 2006). However, candidates possess and voters use to gauge electability. Can- Fraga (2016b) finds evidence that coracial turnout is higher, didate viability includes candidate characteristics such as but the estimates for blacks
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