This issue brought to you by Virginia Governor: Republican Rebound? By Jacob Rubashkin JANUARY 22, 2021 VOLUME 5, NO. 2 It doesn’t have the same pomp and circumstance as the presidential inauguration, but the Virginia gubernatorial election is the next big political event on the docket. As one of only two states electing a 2022 Senate Ratings governor in 2021 (New Jersey is the other), all eyes often turn to Virginia at the beginning of each presidential term for clues into what the political BATTLEGROUND environment for the midterm elections could feel like. Democratic-Held (4) Republican-Held (4) This year is also the beginning of a huge cycle for governors elections. Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) NC Open (Burr, R) While just 11 states elected a governor in 2020, 36 states will elect a Hassan (D-N.H.) PA Open (Toomey, R) governor in 2022, including the biggest states in the country such as New Kelly (D-Ariz.) Johnson (R-Wisc.) York, California, Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania. And with Congress Warnock (D-Ga.) Rubio (R-Fl.) consistently and evenly divided, control of the states is critical. Solid Democratic (10) Solid Republican (16) The Lay of the Land Bennet (D-Colo.) Blunt (R-Mo.) Despite dominating the state’s politics at the turn of the century, Blumenthal (D-Conn.) Boozman (R-Ark.) Virginia Republicans are entering the 2021 gubernatorial election at Duckworth (D-Ill.) Crapo (R-Idaho) their political weakest since the 1960s, when the state was a brick in the Padilla (D-Calif.) Grassley (R-Iowa) Democratic Solid South. Leahy (D-Vt.) Hoeven (R-N.D.) Democrats currently hold all five statewide elected offices, both Murray (D-Wash.) Kennedy (R-La.) houses of the state Legislature, a majority of the state’s Congressional Schatz (D-Hawaii) Lankford (R-Ok.) delegation, and just won the state’s 13 Electoral College votes. The last Schumer (D-N.Y.) Lee (R-Utah) time all that was true was in 1964. Van Hollen (D-Md.) Moran (R-Kan.) Republicans have not won a statewide race in the last decade. That’s Wyden (D-Ore.) Murkowski (R-Alaska) a far cry from when Virginia was supposed to be a launching pad for Paul (R-Ky.) future presidents George Allen and Bob McDonnell. Portman (R-Ohio) Democrats’ victories in the back half of the decade are noticeably Scott (R-S.C.) larger than in the early 2010s. In 2012, President Barack Obama won Shelby (R-Ala.) by 4 points while Tim Kaine won the Senate race by 6 points. In 2013, Thune (R-S.D.) Terry McAuliffe won a narrower-than-expected 48-45 percent victory Young (R-Ind.) over Ken Cuccinelli in the gubernatorial race, and in 2014, Ed Gillespie nearly pulled off a shocking upset in the Senate race, losing to Sen. Mark Warner by just 1 point. But in 2016, Clinton carried the state by 6 points, in 2017 Ralph Northam won by a 9-point margin over Gillespie in the gubernatorial contest, and in 2018 and 2020 Sens. Kaine and Warner each won by CALENDAR double-digits (16 points for Kaine, 12 points for Warner) while Joe Biden March 20 Louisiana’s 2nd & 5th Districts Special Elections won the state by 10 points. GOP DEM April 24 Louisiana Special Election runoffs (if necessary) The state’s leftward march relative to the nation is clear. In the 2008 115th Congress 51 49 June 8 New Jersey Gubernatorial Primary presidential election, Virginia voted 2 points to the right of the nation. In Not up this cycle 42 23 June 8 Virginia Democratic Gubernatorial Primary 2012, it voted right in line with the national margin. In 2016, it voted 3 Currently Solid 4 18 points to the left of the national margin. In 2020, it voted 5.5 points to the Summer TBD Virginia Republican Gubernatorial Convention Competitive 5 8 left of the nation. Nov. 2 New Jersey & Virginia Gubernatorial Elections Continued on page 7 InsideElections.com CALENDAR July 30-31 Democratic Presidential Debates (Detroit, Mich.) Oct. 12 Louisiana Gubernatorial Jungle Primary Aug. 6 Mississippi Gubernatorial Primary Nov. 5 Mississippi and Kentucky Gubernatorial General Elections Aug. 27 Mississippi Gubernatorial Primary Runoff Nov. 16 Louisiana Gubernatorial General Election Sept. 10 North Carolina’s 3rd & 9th District Special General Elections Dec. 2 Illinois Candidate Filing Deadline Sept. 12-13 Democratic Presidential Debates Dec. 9 Texas Candidate Filing Deadline Vote Above Replacement: 2020 Senate Elections By Bradley Wascher Democrats’ quest to take back the Senate paid off this cycle, thanks in 2020 Democratic Senate Candidates, no small part to a slate of strong candidates. The unique benefit provided by these recruits, as well as the value of other 2020 Senate contenders, Results, Baseline & Vote Above Replacement can be quantified using Vote Above Replacement (VAR). And it provides State Candidate Percent Democratic VAR depth to some of the most important results, including GOP Sen. Susan Earned Baseline NH Jeanne Shaheen 56.6% 49.9% 6.7 Collins’ surprising margin in Maine. RI Jack Reed 66.6% 60.5% 6.1 VAR measures the strength of a political candidate relative to a typical GA Raphael Warnock 51.0% 46.0% 5.0 candidate from their party within the same state. That initial benchmark is derived using Inside Elections Baseline, which captures a state or MS Mike Espy 44.1% 39.1% 5.0 congressional district’s partisan makeup by combining all federal and state GA Jon Ossoff 50.6% 46.0% 4.6 election results over the past four election cycles into a single average. MA Ed Markey 66.2% 61.7% 4.5 The VAR scores for Senate candidates in 2020 proved to be OR Jeff Merkley 56.9% 52.8% 4.1 particularly consequential. Across the 33 races featuring one Democrat CO John Hickenlooper 53.5% 49.9% 3.6 against one Republican (Arkansas and Louisiana are therefore excluded), AZ Mark Kelly 51.2% 47.6% 3.6 the average VAR was a mere -0.01. This indicates that most performances SC Jaime Harrison 44.2% 40.9% 3.3 were largely zero-sum; in other words, when one candidate exceeded VA Mark Warner 56.1% 53.3% 2.7 expectations, their opponent often fell short by a similar amount. DE Chris Coons 59.4% 57.1% 2.3 The average absolute VAR, on the other hand, was 2.9, meaning each TX M.J. Hegar 43.9% 41.5% 2.3 politician usually performed 3 points better — or worse — compared to MT Steve Bullock 45.0% 42.9% 2.1 a typical candidate from their party in that state. Most of the momentum KS Barbara Bollier 41.8% 39.7% 2.1 was on the Democrats’ side. NJ Cory Booker 57.2% 55.7% 1.5 Republicans had to defend 23 of the 35 seats on the ballot last AL Doug Jones 39.7% 38.5% 1.2 fall, but while most were campaigning in solidly red states, they still SD Dan Ahlers 34.3% 33.6% 0.7 underperformed overall. Across the 33 races with a VAR, GOP Senate MI Gary Peters 49.9% 49.3% 0.6 nominees ran behind a typical Republican in 20 of those states, in total falling WY Merav Ben-David 26.9% 26.8% 0.0 short by an average of half a point. Likewise, Democrats overperformed IL Dick Durbin 54.9% 55.3% -0.3 their Baselines in 20 states, running ahead by an average of half a point. AK Al Gross* 41.2% 41.6% -0.4 While most differences were small, a few Senate candidates’ VAR scores IA Theresa Greenfield 45.2% 45.7% -0.5 reached double digits. In West Virginia, where a rapidly shifting political TN Marquita Bradshaw 35.2% 35.9% -0.7 climate has made it tough for today’s Democrats to meet their previous NC Cal Cunningham 46.9% 48.3% -1.4 statewide benchmarks, Republican Sen. Shelley Moore Capito cruised to a OK Abby Broyles 32.8% 34.2% -1.4 second term with 70.3 percent of the vote and a VAR of 11.5. Her long-shot MN Tina Smith 48.8% 51.1% -2.3 challenger, Democrat Paula Jean Swearingen, ended with a VAR of -11. NM Ben Ray Luján 51.7% 54.3% -2.6 But Swearingen’s wasn’t the lowest VAR of this cycle. That dubious ID Paulette Jordan 33.3% 35.9% -2.7 honor goes to Chris Janicek, the disgraced Democratic nominee who KY Amy McGrath 38.2% 41.5% -3.3 challenged GOP Sen. Ben Sasse in Nebraska. Following a series of sexual ME Sara Gideon 42.4% 49.5% -7.1 misconduct scandals throughout the summer, Janicek was abandoned by WV Paula Jean Swearengin 27.0% 38.0% -11.0 his party, with Nebraska Democrats instead backing an alternative write- NE Chris Janicek 23.2% 36.3% -13.1 in campaign. As a result, Janicek earned just 23.2 percent — 13.1 points Note: Margin discrepancies due to rounding * = Gross ran as an independent with the Democratic nomination Continued on page 3 Ryan Matsumoto @InsideElections Contributing Analyst [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Bradley Wascher Will Taylor Contributing Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Robert Yoon Stuart Rothenberg [email protected] [email protected] Contributing Reporter & Analyst Senior Editor [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin [email protected] 810 7th Street NE • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822 Copyright 2021, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved. 2 January 22, 2021 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 2 2020 Republican Senate Candidates, lower than the Democratic Baseline in Nebraska of 36.3 percent.